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lynchjm24 · 02-20-2010, 04:17 PM

I created a 16 team fictional league. Took my scout and made him neutral and a 100 rating in the editor. I took the entire budget I had and put it on scouting amateurs.

My team Washington picks 11th out of 16. I'll walk you through the simple logic to show you how broken the process is and then reveal the real ratings as players are drafted.

Let's start with the hitters:

My scout likes as 5 star prospects (Con-Pow-Eye)
SS MacKinley 12-12-14
2b Matthews 20-12-17
1b Gallardo 14-14-12

OSA thinks that MacKinley is a 6-10-7. He is a bust in the first.
OSA has Matthews at 13-5-10. He's probably a decent prospect but nowhere near the player my scout says he is
OSA has Gallardo at 6-5-5. He's probably not a prospect at first base.

So I have the best scout, I've put my entire budget at scouting the draft and he has brought me reports that there are 3 5-star position players. I am 99% sure that 2 of them totally suck and would be first round busts. I think that one might be pretty good and might not be an embarrassment picking at 11.

Pitchers:
One 5 star starter Colon my scout has him at 14-15-12 OSA has him at 17-18-14. I have absolutely no doubt that this is the best player in the draft.

On to the draft;
1. Colon - True ratings of 16-15-15. SIMPLE TO TRIANGULATE HE WAS THE BEST PLAYER
2. McKinley - True ratings 8-12-10 Not actually as bad as I thought he'd be. I thought the power would be pretty low, not just contact.
3. Matthews goes next 17-8-11 He's better then decent, but it was obvious that my scout was stupid wrong on him. Since 20-12-17 ratings almost never happen, I know when I see them that they are wrong.

I know you are going to somehow tell me that statistically my scout is more accurate then OSA so far.. great, except that by knowing how the system works and the OSA ratings I can inherently have a better idea of what their real ratings are.

So I've moved ahead to my pick at 11. Guess who is left.... that's right, the 5 star first base prospect Gallardo....
Contact 14, Gap 20, Power 14, Eye 12, Avoid Ks 12. Yet he fell all the way to 11. There is no way in the world that this player isn't a complete bust and I know that. The only way to build a franchise WOULD BE TO IGNORE THE BEST SCOUT IN THE LEAGUE ON A TEAM THAT PUTS IT'S ENTIRE BUDGET INTO AMATEUR SCOUTING.

There are 2 4 star players left on my scout's board:
SS Zaitsoff - 12-3-12. OSA 8-2-8. Likely not a good first rounder
LF Guesne 16-8-12 OSA 7-4-7. Likely not a good prospect

So these are the three players my scout says are head and shoulders above the others remaining. None of them are probably any good, and I wouldn't be suprised if the SS Zaitsoff was the best of the three. Let's see.

Guesne is 11-6-9. OSA was closer
Gallardo is 10-10-8 A touch better then I thought he was going to be, but nowhere near the 5* player my scout predicted
Zaitsoff 14-3-13. The best player and the ONE I WOULD HAVE DRAFTED BY BACKING INTO THE RATINGS EVEN THOUGH MY SCOUT THOUGHT HE WAS THE WORST OF THE THREE

If this 'works', then I guess anytime I hear that anything 'works' in OOTP you'll have to understand why I'm skeptical.

02-20-2010, 04:17 PM	#31
lynchjm24 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Hartford	I created a 16 team fictional league. Took my scout and made him neutral and a 100 rating in the editor. I took the entire budget I had and put it on scouting amateurs. My team Washington picks 11th out of 16. I'll walk you through the simple logic to show you how broken the process is and then reveal the real ratings as players are drafted. Let's start with the hitters: My scout likes as 5 star prospects (Con-Pow-Eye) SS MacKinley 12-12-14 2b Matthews 20-12-17 1b Gallardo 14-14-12 OSA thinks that MacKinley is a 6-10-7. He is a bust in the first. OSA has Matthews at 13-5-10. He's probably a decent prospect but nowhere near the player my scout says he is OSA has Gallardo at 6-5-5. He's probably not a prospect at first base. So I have the best scout, I've put my entire budget at scouting the draft and he has brought me reports that there are 3 5-star position players. I am 99% sure that 2 of them totally suck and would be first round busts. I think that one might be pretty good and might not be an embarrassment picking at 11. Pitchers: One 5 star starter Colon my scout has him at 14-15-12 OSA has him at 17-18-14. I have absolutely no doubt that this is the best player in the draft. On to the draft; 1. Colon - True ratings of 16-15-15. SIMPLE TO TRIANGULATE HE WAS THE BEST PLAYER 2. McKinley - True ratings 8-12-10 Not actually as bad as I thought he'd be. I thought the power would be pretty low, not just contact. 3. Matthews goes next 17-8-11 He's better then decent, but it was obvious that my scout was stupid wrong on him. Since 20-12-17 ratings almost never happen, I know when I see them that they are wrong. I know you are going to somehow tell me that statistically my scout is more accurate then OSA so far.. great, except that by knowing how the system works and the OSA ratings I can inherently have a better idea of what their real ratings are. So I've moved ahead to my pick at 11. Guess who is left.... that's right, the 5 star first base prospect Gallardo.... Contact 14, Gap 20, Power 14, Eye 12, Avoid Ks 12. Yet he fell all the way to 11. There is no way in the world that this player isn't a complete bust and I know that. The only way to build a franchise WOULD BE TO IGNORE THE BEST SCOUT IN THE LEAGUE ON A TEAM THAT PUTS IT'S ENTIRE BUDGET INTO AMATEUR SCOUTING. There are 2 4 star players left on my scout's board: SS Zaitsoff - 12-3-12. OSA 8-2-8. Likely not a good first rounder LF Guesne 16-8-12 OSA 7-4-7. Likely not a good prospect So these are the three players my scout says are head and shoulders above the others remaining. None of them are probably any good, and I wouldn't be suprised if the SS Zaitsoff was the best of the three. Let's see. Guesne is 11-6-9. OSA was closer Gallardo is 10-10-8 A touch better then I thought he was going to be, but nowhere near the 5* player my scout predicted Zaitsoff 14-3-13. The best player and the ONE I WOULD HAVE DRAFTED BY BACKING INTO THE RATINGS EVEN THOUGH MY SCOUT THOUGHT HE WAS THE WORST OF THE THREE If this 'works', then I guess anytime I hear that anything 'works' in OOTP you'll have to understand why I'm skeptical.