Quote:
Originally Posted by lungs
Of course I've been looking at Harden through Brewers lenses. The Brewers had one of the worst starting staffs in the league last year, if not the worst. I thought signing a guy like Randy Wolf was much preferred to signing a guy like Harden. Wolf won't put up dazzling numbers like Harden has the potential to do, but at the same time Wolf is no slouch.
I've considered myself a stats guy for a long time but people keep throwing me these projections that Wolf and Harden will end up with the same WAR even though Harden projects to throw a lot less innings than Wolf because Harden's work will be higher quality. But I keep throwing out the fact that Harden on average is a 5-6 inning pitcher and and will tax the bullpen tremendously. Does WAR take that into account?
I love stats and put a great amount of stock into them but sometimes people just take them too literally and look at things in too much of a vacuum as if each individual player is on his own and not part of a collective entity that is a baseball team.
Nobody on here is doing that, but I'm talking about a Brewer site I visit and post where if I posted what I just posted I'd get jumped on as being anti-intellectual when in fact I'm quite the stats nerd myself.
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I think they overpaid quite a bit TBH. Wolf looked great last year however it was his first good season since 2003. Dodger Stadium is a pitchers park and Wolf is 33 years old. I cant see him improving from last year. Something like 11-11 with a 4.15 ERA is what Id expect.