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Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo
hmm - beltre would be fantastic? really?
his slugging fell off a cliff after his "steroid-year" and then fell off the second cliff this past year (he was injured though i gather?).
call me crazy, but i find it hard to get excited about a guy hitting .265 and putting up 25 homers with a .327 OBP. Even if he's Omar frigging Vizquiel.
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Safeco was an awful home park for Beltre - it seriously negates right-handed power hitters. It has killed Beltre - his home/road OPS splits since he signed with Seattle:
.694/.735
.777/.805
.745/.858
.703/.861
.647/.717
All those flyballs that died on the warning track at Safeco will be either homers or doubles off the Monster at Fenway.
You just have to hope he can stay a little more healthy than he was with Seattle - he's been battling a chronic thumb problem and has had groin, hamstring and wrist injuries. But the guy is a warrior - he will battle through most injuries, probably to the detriment of himself and his team.
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And Beltre, as good as he is in the field is maybe 11 runs better than Lowell (based on baseball reference's "Total Fielding Runs Above Average."). Lowell's OPS+ was like 24pts higher and hit .290 as compared to .265 in basically the same number of games. Lowell's 2009 VORP was 22.9. Beltre was 5.
Not that statistics are everything, but I don't see how Beltre (at the added cost of salary - $3m - Max R.'s salary) is a "fantastic upgrade" over Lowell.
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WAR results (via Fangraphs) over the 5 years comparing Beltre & Lowell:
2005: 2.5 vs. 0.5
2006: 4.6 vs. 3.4
2007: 3.0 vs. 5.3
2008: 4.1 vs. 3.2
2009: 2.4 vs. 1.2
That's 16.6 for Beltre vs. 13.6 for Lowell.
"Fantastic" upgrade? I don't know if that's true, but definitely an upgrade.