Assuming the Jags pick around 15-18 based on current standings, I think it's a no brainer that they will pick him up in the first round if somebody doesn't get to him first. At that pick it's not so ridiculously high that they will get panned for it and the team is desperate for a story that will sell some tickets. I agree with DC though - if not the Jags somebody is going to fall in love with the hype and the story and think he's worth a first rounder. Do we know if Al Davis likes Tebow?
He's basically Jamarcus Russell with a bit less upside and we all know where he went in the draft.
What he ends up doing in the NFL - no clue. He's a nice piece for a creative OC to figure out how to get some touches. H-back, short yardage QB, some time in the spread and/or the wildcat. I don't think he'll have a long career (that nasty concussion must be a little worrying for a player that makes his living trying to run people over, and he's going to get hit a lot harder in the NFL than in college) but I do think he'll be productive in the short term and will give opposing coaches something to think about when he's on the field.