Quote:
Originally Posted by Gary Gorski
I would say just the opposite - that this has the chance to be the start of a good run for the Magic but the biggest factor in anything is Dwight Howard. Howard needs to become a dominant center. If he can add at least one post move and improve his FT shooting and ability to pass out of double teams then Orlando is the team to beat. I think they need to keep Turk - yeah it puts them into luxury tax territory but a lineup of Nelson, Lee, Turk, Lewis and Howard is very, very solid.
The Celtics will have KG back but might trade Ray Allen (last year of his contract and Ainge knows his team is OLD plus has contract decisions coming up like Rondo). I don't see Perkins being able to stop Howard. Same for the Cavs - we already saw what a bad matchup that is for them. Miami only gets better if they add another superstar - Bosh wants to play there so they might get him in 2010 or see if they can trade for him but I can't see Toronto trading him unless they got Beasley in the deal and I don't like Chicago - Rose is going to be a good player but they may lose Gordon to free agency and they really need to make some moves to straighten the roster out. If they keep Gordon then why have Salmons and Deng? Who's going to take Deng with his contract? Who's going to stop Howard in the post? Brad Miller? Noah? Ty Thomas? Please...
Detroit is interesting because of the cap room and both Gordon and Boozer have been rumored as possible adds as well as the possibility of trading Rip or Prince. I say if we find a buyer for Rip to do it. Detroit might end up with a decent starting lineup but we have zero depth. Dyess is probably going to a contender (and he should after playing his ass off here to get a ring), Amir Johnson was a disaster and Joe wants to move his contract, Maxiell is a good energy guy but that's what he's good for - 20-25 minutes of high energy but that's his ceiling IMO. Bynum, Afflalo - maybe they turn into decent role players. Even if they sign Boozer that still leaves them one post player short and they might be able to draft Mullens but he's going to take time to develop too.
Like I said, I think everything for Orlando rests on Howard. The Magic are constructed perfectly for him - with Lee, Turk and Lewis all being outside shooters that should leave plenty of space for Nelson to be able to drive and for Howard to post. I think it would be a mistake to get another post player (or even play a guy like Gortat with him) because you're just adding another defender in the post and taking away Howard's room. If he can prove that he's got more than one move (back them down and dunk) and can pass or even take a dribble and then pass out of a double/triple team then they're going to be really, really tough to defend. The one move Orlando needs to do is ship Alston - that guy has the ability to implode that team with his attitude - not to mention that he's just way too inconsistent.
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I agree with you. It all comes down to whether Howard can develop an offensive game that compares to his defense and rebounding. He also needs to get much better at free throws.
I think the Bulls roster will change a lot in the coming years. They will have a lot of cap room in 2010 and will push hard for one of the big names. Wade makes a lot of sense since he is from Chicago and would essentially give the Bulls the best backcourt in the game. There has been a lot of rumors of Bosh for Deng in recent weeks since Toronto doesn't want to lose Bosh for nothing. I'm not sold on Bosh though.
I would actually argue that Gordon can be a detriment to the team at times. They played a lot better with Hinrich in the game in the playoffs because of his defense. Gordon demanded a lot of shots and took the ball out of Rose's hands too much. While I know he has the ability to put up big numbers on any night, he also has his 2 for 15 nights that kill them. His defense is also poor and I think he's better served as a 6th man for a really good team. It's going against the grain, but I think the Bulls are a better team without Gordon.
In any event, the Deng contract is really their only bad one. While he had a down year, he isn't horrible either. He's still a guy who has averaged over 15 points a game in his career and shoots the mid-range jumper real well. I think he has a better year next year now that the glut of guards will be gone and he'll have a more stable position in the rotation.