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The way I see it:
Believe Seer: mid to high risk, very small chance of high reward (cunning scan)
If good, should make it one night and gains us one scan
If bad it puts us farther behind due to deception
Believe BG: low risk, high reward
If good we gain another BG
If bad we lose the least I would believe
Believe Duke: very high risk
If good we gain the typical duke role which is not a slam dunk good thing
If bad we have given the wolves a chance to save one of their own with little risk as the believed duke can claim the usual "I went with a hunch" excuse
Believe Maniac: high risk
If good we gain someone with a night kill option which is hit or miss
If bad we give the wolves a second night kill with the same out as the duke
Believe Cultist: mid to high risk with possible high reward
If good and stays good we gain the name of a wolf
If good but swings bad we gain confusion
If bad we gain confusion
Believe Tough Villager: mid to high risk, little reward
If good helps avoid a lynch
If bad helps avoid a lynch
Believe Brutal Wolf: high risk, high reward
If good gives us a brutal of our own
If bad gives the wolves a roled kill
Believe Vengeful Wolf: low risk, low reward
If good it would make one player immune from night kills as the attacker would die which also means little chance of an attack on that person
If bad it would really only hurt if the player was duked to or night killed by other role but little chance of that as it wuld be a known believed role.
Believed Tough Wolf: mid to high risk, little reward
See Tough Villager breakdown (basically similar)
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