Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand
I buy that in general (that he will have trouble in states where McCain has a strong presence) but I would expect that to have shown up in polling. I would presume that most of these polls ask people in what primary they intend to vote -- so you'd expect that independents who knew they were going to vote for McCain would indicate so in advance, and we would have seen that in pre-primary polling.
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I think you are misunderstanding the premise slightly. I'm saying that independent voters that have Obama as their number 1 choice saw how far ahead he was and decided that their vote could be better spent in the tighter Republican race. So in the polls leading up to the election they showed as Obama voters, and on voting day they went out and voted for McCain or whatever other Republican. Obama does have strong support among independents as does McCain, so it'd make a lot of sense from that perspective.