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I still think that Obama is going to end up with a narrow win tonight for the Dems, but I just don't think the Clinton camp has quit in them. Really, a big issue is what Edwards does -- right now, his line is that he's staying around all the way to the convention, and if he does so, he probably will continue to drag 5-12% in most states, even without money and organization. My guess is that 2/3 or more of those Edwards voters, were they released by him dropping out, would vote for the leading non-Hillary candidate, and that's clearly Obama. I think he will continue to siphon votes from Obama as long as he continues to register in the polls.
It might turn into a battle where Obama can win states with fairly "open" primaries by pulling in independents, while Clinton will win most of the closed voting among party members only. If that is true, this has the greatest potential to meaningfully carry on all the way to the convention of any primary campaign in a few decades. (With this year's GOP primaries shaping up as another contender for the same label)
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