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I think Hillary remains the favorite, but Obama is closing on her. The one thing keeping Edwards alive in my mind is that the turnout in IA caucuses is generally pathetic -- 11 percent of eligible voters in 2004 which was a big year. Since a lot of Edwards voters jave attended caucuses before and thus are more "reliable" caucus-goers, I think that is an advantage.
I read that a lot of Obama's support in IA comes from younger voters. Younger voters are notoriously unreliable. See entries for Kerry, John and Gore, Albert for further information.
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