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Old 09-30-2007, 11:27 PM   #2071
ISiddiqui
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
The question becomes, who is the NL MVP? The AL MVP, I'd hope everyone agrees, is obvious (A-Rod). NL MVP is harder.

On Win Shares (at least the more complicated Hardball Times version), David Wright of the Mets leads the pack with 32 WS. However, they didn't make the playoffs. Neither did Pujols' Cards, as Pujols second with 29 WS. Third place is a bit of a surprise and a NO WAY vote, Eric Byrnes for Arizona, even though his team made the playoffs (and finished with the best record), with 28 WS. After that, you get a 3 way tie with 27 WS for Carlos Beltran, Hanley Ramirez, and Miguel Cabrera, none of whose teams made the playoffs. Then a three way tie with 26 WS by Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Matt Holiday, all of whose teams made the playoffs, and Prince Fielder, whose team didn't.

If we look at adjusted OPS+ (according to baseball-reference.com), Chipper Jones finishes first with 167, but his team missed the playoffs and he missed too many games. After that is Pujols with 160, Fielder with 157, Wright with 153, and Cabrera with 152. After that, at 6th in OPS+ is Holliday with 150.

So it's a muddle. We may have to turn to pitching, where Jake Peavy stands head and shoulders above everyone else with a 176 ERA+. Second is Brandon Webb with a 156 ERA+. Pitchers normally don't win, because they have a Cy Young award, but this year it may have to go to the pitcher, especially if San Diego wins the Wild Card. For the record, Peavy has 22 Win Shares, because pitchers only pitch every 5 days instead of hitting basically every day.

I'm thinking the closeness of the NL race means that Wright or Fielder, even though their teams lost will get plenty of play for the MVP award. I think Fielder is a sexier pick because he plays for the Brewers and hit a TON of homers. Even though Wright is the better fielder and has better hitting Win Shares. The Mets collapse will hurt Wright. If the Mets walked in, Wright may have won it easily.

So I'm thinking it's between Prince Fielder and Jake Peavy at the moment with Matt Holiday being a spoiler if Colorado makes it in as the Wild Card.
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