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Originally Posted by Crapshoot
1) You're right - the Allard Baird model worked out so well for you guys. Clearly those stats nerds know nothing.
2) I do agree with the basic point, but the premise was that Gordon may not be a complement to the team - the general perception was that he would be the best hitter (and likely the best player on it). At that point, keeping him doing hurts the perception of a franchise far more than it helps.
2a) - consider the effect on Teahen if he had to make a mid-season move to RF instead of in ST.
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I'm not saying there's not value to PECOTA. But it's clearly not perfect and you have to use stat projections for what they are- projections that would be true if all people were animatrons. BP's projections are good, some of the best, but there's more that goes into it (see below).
Also, I think there's a bit of a gulf between using PECOTA projectsion and Allard Baird. There are other options so to say that's a false choice would be blantantly understating things.
To the other points, no matter how great a rookie is expected to be, how often are they the best hitter on the team? There's just a huge adjustment between the minors and the majors and putting the pressure to be the best guy on the team on top of that is probably unfair for anyone. Again, extenuating circumstances are these are people playing games not just statistical models.
SI