Quote:
Originally Posted by billethius
Weaver had a nice year last year, but I'm not terribly impressed with him. His flyball rate was super high last year and the number of those that went for homeruns was awfully low. I'm pretty sure most studies show HR/Flyball is fairly consistent for all pitchers across the league, so I'd expect Weaver to not get quite so lucky this season.
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He gave up 15 homers in 123IP, that sounds about right. Maybe a little low, but not enough to make a huge difference.
Scouts were actually much more down on him as a major leaguer than the "sabermetric society" (not talking about FOFC, I have no idea what was written about him last year), in general. Where Weaver was lucky last year was in balls in play. He had a .239 BABIP so at the very least you can expect him to regress to the mean this year, if not go over it a bit. He still projects as a pretty damn good pitcher, though. He'll be fine, but he just won't be as good as he was last year.