Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49
CR:
Assuming Alan picks games that are toss-ups, which is likely, the odds of placing a bet on any given day is only 50%. The odds of winning that bet is only 50%. That means on any given day you only have a 25% shot of winning money. Now granted you have a 50% shot of not losing money, but your idea of five consecutive wins is only a 3% possibility, before even taking into account that your bet might not be placed.
I'm guessing your victory condition has to do with your ability to make money. This would make you one bribable judge. I don't wish you any ill in your venture, but will not be voting for you as a judge.
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But you also only lose money 25% of the time, and that is if we make the assumptions that you're making, which won't necessarily be true. There are a lot of sports nuts in the Big City. I am guessing between us all, we can make bets that will likely increase our win odds significantly.
No, five straight wins is not likely, but five straight losses is even less likely, and your losses don't increase over time. The fact is that this is another way for people to make money if they want, especially if they like the bet. You don't have to do it if you don't want to; I'm here to tell others that the opportunity is there if they do.
As for my win condition, there's a money element, but it is more complicated than that. I have already determined I can hit it on my own, and am not concerned with the need to take bribes to hit it (which by themselves wouldn't do it anyway). But once again, that is your right. Vote as you like. Don't come crying to me, though, if the judge doesn't make choices you like.