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Originally Posted by st.cronin
I don't think it has to do with that, I think it has to do with the odds that the dealer will bust with a 4/5/6 showing. That's what I don't know how to figure, but it must be quite high if I'm supposed to sit on a 12.
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Without carrying out all the math - this is essentially right. When the dealer is in such a weak position (holding a 4-5-6) he's got a great shot to bust anyway, so don't take any needless risks.