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Obviously I don't know anything really.. but whilst I suspect you are correct that the simple fact that there is an EA game in the arena wouldn't put someone of character off, if such a game was as good as (say) FM, then it would become a yard stick that everyone measured other football games against.
If you're going to compete with something like that you need to be confident that you're either significantly better on the same terms or different enough to satisfy a niche.
compare the prospects of releasing a product in THAT market verses the still untapped (by major publishers) market of college football and it would appear (to me at least) that there would be more money to be made in the short to medium term competing against 'air'.
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