Invasion of Ukraine
 

Thought this deserved a separate thread… we now know how the new world order is going to divide now - one surprise to me at least

From the BBC live feed:

The development today Putin should have seen coming: Xi is making it clear that Putin works for him and that Putin's own goals and motivations do not matter.

At this point, he has to realize he has destroyed his own legacy. While he can take Kyiv, and probably will in the next day or so, he can't move much further. Unfortunately for the people of Ukraine, there's no guarantee they won't become Belarus, part two. That would be just fine for China.

It really is up to the EU/UK and the US to decide just how far to take this. We didn't do anything when Crimea was taken (which, as we know, happened about a week after the 2014 Olympics in Sochi ended).

Glory to Ukraine

Last month, a poll in Finland indicated 28% support, 42% opposition (30% uncertain), to joining NATO. Apparently, that was the first poll ever taken in Finland that indicated less than 50% opposition.

Presumably, that number would have changed this month. The Finnish PM indicated as much this week. Finland and Sweden would not act separately, either way.

The Russians have just warned Finland that they're next if they join (or words to that effect). Finland is the country perhaps most dependent on Russian energy exports, so perhaps the warning is pointless.

No idea which way this will go. Does Xi accept NATO as the line that can't be crossed (World War III being perhaps bad for the Chinese economy). Does the EU accept this kind of threat as easily as it apparently has accepted the invasion of Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine, yes. But peace is better. The suffering just beginning in Kyiv - it's hard to imagine. We in the US haven't had to face that ongoing reality in almost 80 years.

My primary Russian teacher when I was learning Russian in the Army was from Ukraine and received asylum to the US by President Reagan. I keep going back to her stories of what it was like under Soviet rule and it's heartbreaking to see what's happening now while the whole world watches.

Sounds like the severing of Russia from SWIFT is about to happen. France just approved as well as Germany making moves toward it. Sounds like the US and Canada is pushing it pretty hard.

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What makes you think they can't go much past Kyiv? I haven't seen anything to that effect. Agreed on Xi for sure, but I don't think this changes Putin's legacy very much. This is who he's been. It's clearer and more obvious this time sure, but it's not fundamentally different in any way. He's been a strongman authoritarian, he is one, he clearly intends to be one to his grave.

For clarification, Kyiv being the location of the central Ukrainian government, I mean control of Ukraine and the ability to put a puppet government in place.

Much past that would mean either the Baltic states, since they are in NATO and presumably Xi believes that's a red line and does not want WWIII to begin, or Finland/Sweden if they begin the NATO process (being mostly capable of joining, as far as I know) and Putin continues with his threats.

I don't know, though. Moldova seems like it's pretty much in the same camp as Belarus and Georgia seems to be quite willing to do whatever it takes to stay out of Putin's vision.

I hope the pressure remains. As painful as it is, that Ukraine has the resolve to avoid supporting a puppet government and that the EU and the US does everything it can to help that process and never recognize whatever Putin puts in place there. Because we can't stop what's happening now.

Ahh ok. I thought you meant he would be stopped before being able to control Ukraine. Makes a lot more sense now.

My only difference then is I think we can stop what's happening now. We just don't want to pay the price to do it. That could end up being the better choice, but I have my doubts. I think it's the more expensive one in the long run.

This is pretty cool. All world leaders not supporting Russia should do the same.

(let's say current world leaders so we exclude Trump)

Ukraine invasion - Boris Johnson directly addresses Russian people in their own language: 'I do not believe this war is in your name' | Politics News | Sky News

I've read France is committed but have read Germany still has reservations.

But yeah, lets do this and see what happens.

It immediately destroys 5%-10% of their economy.

Just a dystopia photo.

Kyiv, our splendid, peaceful city, survived another night under attacks by Russian ground forces, missiles. One of them has hit a residential apartment in Kyiv. I demand the world: fully isolate Russia, expel ambassadors, oil embargo, ruin its economy. Stop Russian war criminals! pic.twitter.com/c3ia46Ctjq

— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) February 26, 2022

Main difference here is that Finland (and Sweden) are part of the EU, while Finland (unlike Sweden) is also a Euro currency member, which means the EU members in NATO would be forced to come to help. Basically, at some point, being part of the EU will force countries to (request to) join NATO.

Everything I am seeing this morning is bad news for Putin. Turkey is now refusing to allow Russian warships into the Black Sea. The leaders of Hungary and the Czech have openly condemned the invasion, and Kazakhstan is refusing to send troops in support as requested. These are some of Putin's biggest allies. They are now recognizing that this could easily be their fate at any time.

The photo they chose to accompany the announcement, by the way, says “fuck off” in all directions. https://t.co/FHnJwT0ix0

— Jane Lytvynenko (@JaneLytv) February 26, 2022

Glory to Ukraine

My guess is if Ukraine can hold out long enough, world opinion against Russia will increase to the point where Russia will back off. They'll keep the 2 friendly regions and call it a win.

The big one is China. From what I've been reading in reddit (reliable as always), Chinese citizens favor Russia (primarily an anti-US, anti-West knee jerk reaction) but Chinese government seems to have gone more towards neutral now.

Really, really hope Ukraine can hold the commies off.

Bad ass grandma. I can believe the first one but guessing the second one is embellished. Still a great quote.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...an-troops.html

This would be catastrophic.

Very important text by energy expert Andriy Zinchenko from @greencubator: Russian missile attack targeted the Kyiv Hydro Powerplant Dam #CloseTheSky #ArmUkraine pic.twitter.com/WIeLB2bWgG

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) February 26, 2022

Hard to see how this ends, but of course it will. I can't see the Ukrainians laying down arms in support of a Russian puppet government, but I also can't see Putin withdrawing without at least being able to point to something as a victory. In the meantime, lots of people will be injured and killed.

God bless Ukraine.

I've seen speculation that Russia may drop a dirty bomb on its own citizens and blame it on Ukraine. Not sure if that's supposed to fool us or its own citizens. They are warning about it plus the health minister is asking for large numbers of medical personnel to be on call.

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister is saying that Hungary and Germany have signed off the removal of Russia from SWIFT and the preparations are underway.

Meanwhile, the Turks haven't actually closed the Black Sea off from Russian warship movement. It was sent as a request that seemed like a report.

propaganda, it's a helluva drug

President of Ukraine: to US when offered an evacuation: "I need ammunition, not a ride."

I have no idea if that guy has been a good president, but he wins for Badass Leader Line.

The reason being something about an international law dictates that they cannot warships from returning to their home port after deployment. I don't know which law exactly, but that was the justification used.

It's essentially the Alamo at this point.

Is that real?

I have seen it widely reported.

I think the thing that could really undermine Putin on the global stage is the targeting of civilians. Images like that tank and high rise buildings being bombed, and god forbid they hit that damn, are really going to shift peoples perspectives.

I guess I'll throw this thought out here:

But does anyone suspect that the main reason that Republicans like Mitch McConnell are calling for max sanctions against Russia is to help drive up energy costs in the US in which later they will blame Biden for?

Near as I can tell, Turkey closed off the Bosphorus but wouldn't Russia still have ships in the Black Sea from their bases on the other side of the sea as they control the eastern half of it?

SI

Too conspiratorial for me (and the price hike may not last that long). And there's always the Putin bogeyman to blame for a period of time.

I was thinking that Russia already have ships in the Black Sea (e.g. heroic stand at Snake Island). And doubt Turkey would "confront" them.

This was highly co-ordinated.

The same 10 lies about fake Ukranian attacks were told by 10 different Russian news networks, according to @DFRLab disinfo analysts in Ukraine.

These are not just the ramblings of Putin & random officials - it is part of their strategy. pic.twitter.com/t5WYfLz0PR

— Rachel Lavin (@RachelLavin) February 26, 2022

SI

I didn't have direct experience with Russian forces, but I do know a lot of people that did joint operations with them. Their equipment is dogshit. Their vehicles were usually not running and they were constantly trying to barter for parts, fuel, or working on them. They were undergeared and always trying to trade with our guys for new boots, warm weather gear, wet weather gear, ect.

Their soldiers are mostly young kids that are genuinely nice, but underpaid or not paid at all, and just doing what they are told. If you watch the sunflower lady video you see the soldier she's talking to is trying to defuse the situation with her and you can tell he probably doesn't want to be there. I'm sure when you combine those facts with most of these soldiers either having friends or family in Ukraine and I'm sure morale is a massive issue for the Russian forces at the moment.

Wouldnt it be awesome if Russia's privates just laid their arms down and said "nope, not doing this. " and left.

What a great sentiment that would be. I imagine every 12-30 year old inn the world would get behind that.

That would be fantastic, but what happens after that?

Meaning, what would happen to the privates after they return home?

I normally stray far from these political statements and conversations here but this is a little to over the top for me.

Seems to me most conservative voices are asking why the administration isn't quickly acting to reduce gas prices (reversing course on Keystone, allow more drilling domestically, etc). I would gain a ton of respect for the administration if they would do these things.

I have even heard suggestions that we use domestic strategic reserves. This seems a bit reckless to me though as should the proverbial crap hit the fan and we (US) be dragged into a major conflict the side with the most oil to fuel their forces will be at an advantage. I am not a warhawk but if we are dragged into a major military conflict I want our boys to have every advantage possible.

It seems that producing more energy/oil domestically ASAP would benefit us at home and militarily with very little immediate cost. I think we can table the environmental arguments over such a policy for a few years while we maximize our ability to respond to a world wide conflict that would likely pit us against China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran at minimum.

I pray it never comes to something like that but I want us to be as prepared as possible and hopefully deter such an outcome by our preparedness. I support Biden as our Commander in Chief and his decisions thus far in this conflict despite my disappointments in his performance politically/policy decisions thus far in his term. I hope we will not hold back the SWIFT lever if it comes down to our (US) vote.

Seeing reports the dam may have fallen

There would be a drastic spike in suicide rates among the soldiers and their families over the next couple years.

As it stands I expect some military leaders will be suicided over this.

Keystone wasn't scheduled to start pumping until 2030.

dola

This motherfucker just wandering around a firefight looking for a tank to blow up.

NLAW seen during a firefight. Insane video filmed reportedly on the outskirts of Ivankov. pic.twitter.com/a0mtrFPzhT

— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) February 26, 2022

After China invades Taiwan rename this THE WW3 Thread.

This is the millenials time to shine. End this world war.

People are insane.

Someone on my facebook feed stated they thought we should nuke every major city in China in response to the Ukraine situation, presumably just to make sure nothing happens in Taiwan. It would also 'encourage' Putin to take his army back home. I don't think they were joking.

Whatever we may think of our leaders, they're more rational than that thankfully.

I suspect Republican politicians calling for max sanctions on Russia are those who don't want to get on the wrong end of a PR war. If it also drives up petroleum prices, fine, take a look at their donors.


What makes you think any of these things would quickly reduce gas prices? Keystone wouldn't have pumped until 2030. Thousands of drilling licenses lie unused. Etc....


As of 2020, the United States used about 20 million barrels of oil a day (Mb/d). It also produced about 16 Mb/d. Some of that gets exported. Source: • US: oil consumption 2020 | Statista.

As of 2020, U.S. imports of petroleum amount to about 7.8 Mb/d, half of which is from Canada, and 7% of which is from Russia. Source: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Given these numbers and the number of drilling leases already granted lying unused, the U.S. is in perfectly good shape when it comes to petroleum dependency. And that's without even considering usage caps that could be instituted in the event of a wartime event.

Roman Abramovich transferred control of Chelsea to the charitable foundation. He must fear having the team taken away by the UK government.

Do it.

Is that like the "charitable foundations" that "own" all the Waltons' art?

The revised proposal which eliminated the potential for emissions by powering it with alternative sources of energy would have added 7-8 years to the project.

If it hadn't been canceled by executive order, it was scheduled to come online next year.

However, it's a dead project now. I don't think it could be restarted at this point without the government paying for what private investment was financing.

I know it isn't popular to talk about energy independence, especially since Trump is a big proponent. But I don't think it's out of bounds to say that without Europe's dependence on Russian exported energy, this wouldn't have happened.

The US and Europe are doing a great job reducing emissions - from the US and Europe. A lot of that is being moved to Asia and the atmosphere doesn't really care where it comes from.

Renewables have their place, but we don't have the advances in battery storage necessary to rely on them right now. Doesn't mean we stop trying, but the cost of insecure energy, well, it means that terrible people like Putin have a lot more power than they should have.

I must say reading the various accounts of the war today on twitter and a bit surprised by two things:


1) How even the authoritarian governments around the world are turning their backs on Russia-I'm not sure Russia has any allies in this.


2) The reports on how Russian military equipment is just not prepared for the war-lots of stories about vehicles running out of gas and soldiers going around begging for food. I was expecting much more of a dominant Russian army and I worry what Putin might do if he sees his forces doing poorly.