Building the Bills - an FOF "action points" challenge dynasty
 

As I recently mused here, I am trying to tinker a bit with my best-yet approach to house rules, the "Action Points" concept. The basic concept is in that thread... basically assign a cost to every action in the game, and force me to budget a limited number of action points to do various things. I have played a fair bit of FOF using a 60 AP per year budget, and that has proven to me to be challenging, but a bit predictable. Now, I am trying a different approach -- start out with a mature NFL team, and use only 50 AP per season to try to build and maintain the team.

The bottom line with the AP system, to me, is to come up with some rules that I can play "all out" under, and still find the solo game to be challenging and interesting. The AP system is not perfect (if anything, it's too labor-intensive to keep count of everything for many) but it's not bad. And, for me, the fact that it forces me to slow down and pay more attention to what I am doing is a net positive for my own immersion (it's generally hard for m to get interested in my solo FOF teams).

So, I will document here, for as long as this keeps at least some of my interest. No promises. A failure of my own follow-through may be an indication that this is too tedious, not interesting, or whatever. or maybe that I just got too busy at the wrong time, and walked away (my usual story).

Action Point Values for FOF House Rules

Staff Hiring
3 – Scout or head coach who was hired with no contract restrictions
2 – Scout or head coach who was offered his requested contract before stage 3
0 – Scout or head coach who was offered his requested contract in stage 3
1 – Replacing scout or head coach currently under contract
2 – Hiring coordinator with no contract restrictions
1 – Hiring coordinator on requested contract before stage 3
0 – Hiring coordinator on requested contract in stage 3
0 – Hiring coordinator at half of his HC request in stage 3
1 – Replacing coordinator currently under contract

Internal Contract Moves
4 – Use franchise tag on player for third consecutive year or more
3 – Use franchise tag on player for second consecutive year
3 – Use franchise tag on player labeled as angry, livid or demanding trade
3 – Use franchise tag on player with loyalty rating of zero
2 – Use franchise tag on any other player
3 – Send former 1st round pick to European league
2 – Send former 2nd or 3rd round pick to European league
1 – Send former 4th or 5th round pick or undrafted rookie to European league
0 – Send former 6th or 7th round pick to European league
4 – Sign current player to unrestricted renegotiation
2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation
0 – Sign current player to a full or partial capout
2 – Sign RFA player on an unrestricted new contract
1 – Sign RFA player to his requested multi year contract
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract
1 – Additional cost of using any item above after its first three uses

Early Free Agency
4 – Offer FA player an unrestricted contract
2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus
2 – Offer FA player a three-year minsal contract
1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus
1 - Submitting an altered contract to a player, within same category above
1 – Additional cost of using any item above after its first three uses

Trading
2 – Initiating trade for player from another team
4 – Initiating trade of player(s) for a 1st round pick or more
2 – Initiating trade of player(s) for 2nd round pick or more
1 – Initiating trade of player(s) for less than 2nd round pick
2 – Accepting AI-initiated trade that fails “fairness test”
1 – Accepting AI-initiated trade that passes “fairness test”
2 – Trading down from Top 10 pick within current draft
1 – Any other trade within current draft
5 – Any trade involving future 1st round pick from another team
2 – Any other trade involving draft picks in future years
1 – Additional cost of using any item above after its first three uses

Rookie Draft
6 – Use up to 60 rookie interviews
5 – Use up to 40 rookie interviews
3 – Use up to 20 rookie interviews
6 – Manually use draft pick between 1.1 and 1.5
5 – Manually use draft pick between 1.6 and 1.16
4 – Manually use draft pick between 1.17 and 1.32
3 – Manually use 2nd round draft pick
2 – Manually use 3rd round draft pick
1 – Manually use 4th or 5th round draft pick
0 – Manually use 6th or 7th round draft pick
0 – Cost of allowing scout to select pick in any round
1 – Added cost if player drafted after first round has 2 or more red combines
1 – Added cost if player drafted after first round has 4 or more red + blue combines
-1 – Deduction from positive AP cost for selecting top player on position board

Late Free Agency
5 – Sign a FA player released during late free agency
4 – Sign a FA player in 2nd or 3rd year in league
3 – Sign a FA player in his 4th year in league
1 – Sign a FA rookie player to 2 or 3 yr contract
0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract
1 – Offer any other FA player his requested contract
1 – Offer any other FA player a one year contract
1 – Additional cost of using any item above after its first three uses

Training Camp
3 – Use custom training camp settings
0 – Use default training camp settings
2 – Carry up to 70 players into training camp
1 – Carry up to 60 players into training camp
0 – Carry up to 53 players into training camp

In-Season

10 – Implement custom gameplans at start of season
6 – Implement custom GP, with unchanged offensive gameplan from FOFC library
2 – Allow unlimited changes to offensive gameplan during season
2 – Allow unlimited changes to defensive gameplan during season
0 – Implement staff-controlled gameplans for full season
4 – Allow unlimited changes to depth chart during season
0 – Implement staff-controlled depth chart for full season
6 – Set injury rate at 100
3 – Set injury rate at 150
0 – Set injury rate at 200
3 – Sign veteran free agent to replace player placed onto IR
1 – Sign rookie free agent to replace player placed onto IR
0 – Sign lowest-rated rookie free agent to maintain legal roster

Salary Cap
15 – Use entire salary cap
12 – Leave 5% of cap unused as of start of season
9 – Leave 10% of cap unused as of start of season
6 – Leave 15% of cap unused as of start of season
3 – Leave 20% of cap unused as of start of season
0 – Leave 25% of cap unused as of start of season
3 – Each player on roster for week 1 occupying over 10% of cap
2 – Each player on roster for week 1 occupying 5-10% of cap

Carryover of Action Points
2 – Cost to carry over remaining AP from one year to the next
1 – Cost to “borrow” 3 AP from the following year (+2 AP now, -3 next year)


Revision notes

3.27.08 substantially revised by QS and incorporated into “Testing My Limits” thread
3.28.08 Increased age of “free” FA signees to 8th year, added 4AP cost of manual depth chart control
3.29.08 Rephrasing and technical changes by QS
3.29.08 Allowed discount for using unchanged Off GP from library (per SD)
3.29.08 Added modest sliding scale for sending player to Europe (per SD)
3.29.08 Added additional cost increment for transactions being used repeatedly
3.29.08 Clarify cost for taking rookie not on overall top page is as by Grade or Adj
3.30.08 Revise draft AP system, AP based on location, skills, with top-guy discount
3.14.09 Reduce cost of signing URFA from 2 to 1
3.14.09 Allow one year no bonus FA signing for 1AP
3.14 09 Establish costs for carryover and borrowing of AP year to year
10.17.10 Reduced cost for revised early FA bid to 1 new AP
10.17.10 Reduced cost for using library offensive gameplan
10.17.10 Reduced cost for carrying extra players into training camp
10.17.10 Reduced cost for signing undrafted rookie free agents

Incidentally, one of the things that I find when playing seriously under these rules is that I tend to do certain things automatically. When that seems too easy a decision, in my mind that means it's time to tweak the relative pricing of the various options. The whole point of the AP system is to make most options in the game still available, but to make them meaningful trade-off decisions.

Playing with 50 AP, for instance, I suspect that I will *never* spend any AP on my coaching or scouting staff. Does that mean that I ought to adjust (downward) the costs for hiring my own staff to make it more palatable? Possibly. In my mind, refinements like these are the essence of a quest like this.

Begin 2011

I am not planning to get flowery with a write-up here... I'll do a quick roster rundown, but I don't plan to wax philosophic too much about the offseasons (as is sometimes my wont).


We start off 2011 with 41 players signed, and more than half the salary cap unused. I was a bit surprised to see this team post an 8-8 record in the FOF 2010 season – I did an initial check and saw QB Fitzgerald looked okay, the two RB looked pretty good, and not too much else to get terribly excited about (I didn't want a team stacked too well by the unavoidable FOF X-factor).

On the roster above, here are some quick thoughts on key players:

QB Fitzgerald looks like a decent downfield passer, but is a UFA, so that will be a position of interest quickly. Brian Brohm is the only guy we have signed, and he doesn't look like much to me.

RB Spiller looks like a major breakaway threat, and Jackson seems to be a solid veteran (pretty much true to life, I'd say). Each guy posted about 4.5 yards per carry last season – I will likely remedy that once I get my gameplan installed and turn both guys into bums.

TE Shawn Nelson looks like a superior blocker and could be an all-star TE if used effectively.

The WR corps looks okay, Lee Evans is a solid all-around guy, others have a skew toward downfield passing skills, so if we build around these guys at all, a gameplan to throw deep might be the vest fit. Steve Johnson looks like a bum, sadly.

The OL looks young and passable, but not exceptional in any way.

DT Kyle Williams is by far the star of the D-line, which looks like a team weakness.

LB Posluszny looks good, but is relatively weak as a run stopper – he would be a massive pass rushing LB if given the chance, but is only decent as an inside run stopper – as a free agent, tat will be a tough choice ahead. Young Danny Batten is a RFA, a good run stopper, and right now looks like the most valued asset we actually control at LB – this position is a massive weakness.

The secondary looks pretty promising, CB McKelvin and S Byrd both look very good, and are quite young of course. There is scattered talent here – regrettably not much coherence in the coverage skills. McKelvin is mainly a zone guy, and that might drive me to go heavy in zone coverage with this team (assuming I take the gameplanning control in this AP system).

Overall, if I were able to call the shots with a couple of anchor-caliber draft picks for this team, I'd say that QB is pretty obvious, but the most alarming situations are probably at DE, LB, and CB, more or less in that order. I will probably turn over 30 of these 41 players in the next few seasons, but for right now, we can probably get by with most of the OL and skill positions we have aboard.

I confess that I don't really have a "participatory" plan in mind... but just in case this proves to have any value:

Buffalo Bills - beginning 2011 files

If anyone might like to play a similar dynasty, or even just have a look at the post-X-factor players as I see them in-game, here's a permanent link to the game files.

Early 2011

The AP Plan

AP planning:
0 – Hire all staff during last stage
0 – Use no rookie interviews
10 – Use allocation of draft picks
10 – Implement custom gameplans at start of season
0 – Implement staff-controlled depth chart for full season
3 – Set injury rate at 150
0 – Leave 25% of cap unused as of start of season
4 – Two 5% cap players (WR Evans, DE Stroud)
--
23 AP remaining for roster moves

So, with a roster fairly full – we're only short at QB and LB from being legal – I feel like we can probably get by with a pretty thin budget for acquisitions. This also, to be honest, “feels right” within the NFL context (I don't really play with real rosters regularly, I confess). Anyway, the gameplan is the big pivot here – if I decide to really load up with lots of extra free agent moves, then I could easily go with the default gameplans for a season. Releasing or renegotiating either or both of the cap-hit players is an obvious angle to shoot here as well.


0 – Hire all staff during last stage
0 – Send former 6th or 7th round pick or former to European league (LB Batten)

Well... looking at the free agent class, our options are fairly limited. The strongest players seem to be veteran receivers (Moss and S. Holmes), interior linemen, and a few odds and ends, mostly on defense.

My whole point of trying to play with tough rules like these is to max out my challenges, and then to play all out within the rules. So I'm trying to manage this team like it's all on the line – so I am looking to make about as big a splash as I can, with a lot of cap space to use.

This also means, in large part for lack of quality options, that I need to pursue Ryan Fitzpatrick to play QB for us. He'd bring cohesion, which would be good, and I don't expect a massive fight over his services, so I expect he will be affordable. I am unimpressed with the FA field at QB, so he's the best available – we will likely back him up with a cheap journeyman.

Incidentally, we have basically no restricted FA worth signing. Usually that's a cheap (AP-wise) way to load up the roster. We're at 41 players signed, with 7 draft picks, so we are already in the right spot, more or less.

I'm thinking we try to land three “big” free agents, at a cost of 2 AP each, then mix in a few other veteran moves (assuming there are some that seem to make at least some sense) and we should still have AP left for late free agency, wheere I will hope to land a quality younger player.

Even though I am relatively comfortable with our OL on initial inspection, I decide it's one of the areas to target, given the quality of the FA fleet.

2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (G Justin Blaylock)
2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (LB Chad Greenway)
2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (WR Sidney Rice)

Blaylock would become an anchor run blocker for our line (needed), as well as a likely chemistry leader (worth building around). LB Greenway is a strong coverage guy, and would cover a huge need on our strong side. WR Rice is just way too cheap, even if he's a less than perfect fit for our likely style of play.

QB Fitzpatrick is asking for 3yrs, $32m – enough to push him into the 5% category, costing us AP after the first year. I decide I will sit back a stage or two and see if he's getting heat... I'm guessing he will not, and we can grab him at a reduced asking price, possibly just under the 5% level, in the later stages of FA1.

Well... an interesting twist. G Blaylock quickly re-signs with Atlanta, and WR Rice with Minnesota, leaving me with nothing from 2 out of 3 of my major offers. Not exactly how I had planned to get started here.

1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (DE Matthias Kiwanuka)

Okay. In stage 4, we land LB Greenway,so all is not totally lost. He ought to come in just under the 5% level, which was my essential goal there.

2 – Offer FA player a three-year minsal contract (CB Bryant McFadden)
2 – Offer FA player a three-year minsal contract (LG Rob Sims)

We actually miss out on Kiwanuka – not a huge loss in terms of talent, but it sucks to lose out on the AP expended and not get the player. This was not a common thing for me in my previous AP challenges – I am used to simply landing pretty much anyone I target. Go figure.

Now I have spent 11 AP, and have landed a total of 3 players. Okay then, time to hit the cheap/free moves.

2 – Offer FA player a three-year minsal contract (FB Quinton Ganther)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (TE Alge Crumpler)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (LB Shaun Phillips)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (QB J.T. Sullivan)

I decide to pursue QB Sullivan for now, since he is a mentor, and among the top handful of veteran guys out there. A 1yr minsal deal is all we commit, but it it not unthinkable that he becomes our starter this year, if Fitzpatrick sticks with his $9m/yr request (I don't think Fitz is worth paying the 5% premium to hold on to).

So, we get to the draft... I release a few hangers-on who would almost certainly be cut in lieu of rookies anyway, along with a chemistry problem or two among our marginal veterans, and look at our personnel needs just to become legal. We need to add a QB (still thinking Fitz here eventually, but drafting one would make great sense also)...past that we are already legal. Improvement would be welcome nearly anywhere, really – how I usually feel when I'm cooking the meal but didn't get to shop for the groceries.

2011 Draft and Training Camp

On to the draft.. projected to cost us 10 AP if we spend no extra here. We have spent 13 out of 23 we had set aside, meaning we have a total of 20 left. What we don't use in the draft likely folds into our cache for late free agency and renegotiation/extensions.


So, of course, our top pick comes up and the **clear** top pick remaining is a running back – pretty much the one position that makes absolutely no sense for is to use here. I do expect big things from RB Desmond Wiggins elsehwere, though. With a first round pick, and a team this shaky, I don't want to worry too much about immediate need, so I go for a CB who looks like a foundation-level selection to me (rather than taking an offensive tackle who might be a bigger immediate need spot for us).

And here arises one of the problems with the AP system (or challenges, if you like). WR Lecuona, as I write looks like he ought to creep and become pretty good. And WR Hoover figures to be a solid kick returner, and maybe a decent-enough reserve WR, but nothing special. However, to save AP (and reduce tedium, admittedly), I plan to let the IA set my depth chart. So, what will happen with these guys (even before you mix in a veteran like 32/35 Roscoe Parrish)? If the AI decides Hoover is the starter ahead of Lacuona, I might see my “better” guy dying on the vine here.

So, the draft cost exactly 10 AP, and we have 10 AP to use here. Nothing too much in the late FA pool, likely a function of the weird starting contract setup. QB Fitz is down a bit, but would still be a big money player after this year. But, since I didn't land anything in the draft, I reckon I have to bite the bullet and lock him up regardless.

1 – Offer any other FA player his requested contract (QB Ryan Fitzpatrick)
1 – Offer any other FA player his requested contract (C Lonie Paxton – new chemistry leader)
1 – Sign a FA rookie player to 2 or 3 yr contract (RB Shannon Blades 31/48)
0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (WLB Xavier Casas 20/45)
0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (ILB Neal Mouton 14/42)
0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (DE Emanuel Edwards 19/37)

After the first stage of late free agency, we have a twist... Fitzpatrick has another suitor, who is offering more money than we are. Wow, this could be an interesting twist. The best fit left out there for us is probably a 10th year Michael Vick, which I confess in “real life” would be interesting for Buffalo, but not so much in a computer game. Best plan is that “loyalty” keeps Fitz with us.

...and it does.

S Bryan Scott is holding out for real money. The biggest issue here really is AP – it costs us 2 AP to renegotiate him for two more expensive years...of in theory I could locate a free agent and offer him his requested contract for only 1 AP. In a normal situation, I'd be doing the latter...but here, with nothing worth a damn in free agency, Scott gets lucky and will get paid.

2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (S Bryan Scott)
2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (WR Lee Evans)
2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (WR Roscoe Parrish)

The re-up with Evans does not drop him from the list if 5% players this year, but will keep him a shade under that level in future years, and that seems worthwhile. Parrish is just dirt cheap, and a good skills fit with the offense I have in mind here. That leaves us with exactly 1 AP left, and we use that to carry 58 players into a default training camp.


So... massive losses among our veterans, no shock there. WR Evans took a beating, that stinks, so did Marcus Stroud, but that's okay. LB Green way getting smacked was unexpected, but he still fills a major need, and I reckon the hit was a one-time bad die roll.

The good news here is a +5 from DE Hughes, and a +2 from CB Borders – these guys look like they ought to be serious “pieces of the puzzle” as we are trying to build a legitimate team here. WR Lecuona at only +2 is a disappointment... I had hope for him to give a +5 hump like Hughes did, and the +2 leaves him likely to be bench-bound with the AI setting rosters. Might just turn out to be a whiff.

Okay... we have set asside the 10 AP needed to use our own gameplans, so we will do so. I am going to set up an offense that I already use sometimes, that gets the ball downfield pretty regularly, and I'll count on my BPR receivers (Evans 68, Easley 80, Parrish 82, Hoover 82, and Lecuona 71) to make this offense into a pretty dangerous one. I don't think we will be consistent, but my hopes are that we can run the ball well again with our backfield and decent line, and then get a legitimate downfield passing threat to keep defenses honest and occasionally hit for big plays. On defense, nothing too special... we'll just plan more or less to guess what the opponent is going to do, and try to load up on the run/pass as we see it. This “gambling” style seems to work okay for me with good teams... not sure how well it will do on a team that might be behind a lot.

Hmm, don't know how to fix the formatting on the ChangeTracker dump there...not sure if/when I will be able to tend to that.

Anyway... the thread is not "caught up" to me. Part of my doing this is that I'm at a multi-day conference, where I expect to have pockets of down time here and there. I have work to do, but am looking for some more relaxing endeavor, and thought this might be a better fit for an hour here or there.

So, updates may be periodic, as my time and net access permits.

2011 Season

We get through preseason without any injuries at all, despite the 150 setting. I cut down to 53 fairly easily, and head into the season.

Season Preview and Goals
Roster Strength: 35
Cohesion Ratings: 71-68-57-84
Affinity Index: 33
Last Year's Results: 8-8 (no playoffs)
Predicted Results: 8-8
Keys to Success: Defense looks short on talent, need good running game to help control possession (my running game usually stinks)

I am predicting an 8-8 season, even though in my experience my taking over an actual team tends to drop their record in the first year – so going 4-12 would not be out of the question. Besides, BUF was a deceiving 8-8 team in 2010, and probably wouldn't have repeated that many wins anyway. So, we will try to maintain, at least.

[i]Incidentally... if you're wondering here, the Affinity Index is my (previously created) manufactured aggregate of teamwide affinities and conflicts, as follows from an original thread back from the IHOF league forums:


Now, on with the season. Not going to post game results or even narrative summaries – just a little commentary as the season progresses, then the de rigueur text dump of the Team Summary page.


Really not much to report... we get to an 0-2 start, and as we crawl toward our 3-5 halfway mark, we don't look terrible, but definitely not like a playoff contender. Fitzpatrick reaches the halfway mark with a ratio of 9/9, not nearly good enough. At 5-5, there's a glimmer of hope, and at 6-6, we are actually tied for the division lead with everyone but the 5-7 Jets. But two losses at home wash us out completely, and we end up in that dead zone of no tmaking the playoffs, but also not earning a top-tier draft pick... pretty much what I had expected all along.


So, while I don't want to rest all this at the feet of one guy or one decision... my overall sense is that better play from the QB could have made this season into a 9-7 or 10-6 success. 23 interceptions is just abominable, and was the main element in a -12 turnover margin. Our personnel is simply not good enough to overcome that sort of thing, and that put way too much pressure on the defense.

On the bright side... CB Donnie Borders, in fairly limited play, posted 11 PD to 17 catches allowed. Wow. Next season we need to make a call with Leodis McKelvin, who is very good but (a) will want a ton of money to extend, and (b) is a chemistry sinkhole with 100 leadership but weak personality. Borders is definitely good enough to anchor my RCB slot, and that likely frees us to trade McKelvin if that makes any sense in the AP system to do.

Season ending notes: Baltimore beats Philadelphia in the Super Bowl, a matchup of mid-atlantic teams piloted by pretty mediocre quarterbacks. Flacco is only 49/52 here, and Philly is inexplicably led by 35/35 Byron Leftwich and his 112 passer rating. DT Kyle Williams is a first team all-pro, and our only guy heading to Hawai'i.

Early 2012

No retirements, no surprise. As we enter the season, we have 38 players signed, and are short 2QB, K, and 3LB.

0 – retain all free staff from last season
0 – Send former 6th or 7th round pick to European league (TE Dodge, possible long term blocking TE2 prospect)

We lucked out – our draft pick is 1.8, due to our easy schedule, apparently. Nice – the range was 8-11. Our anticipated cost of using our own draft picks rests at 12 points. That sets our AP plan as follows:

AP planning:
0 – Hire all staff during last stage
0 – Use no rookie interviews
12 – Use allocation of draft picks
10 – Implement custom gameplans at start of season
0 – Implement staff-controlled depth chart for full season
3 – Set injury rate at 150
0 – Leave 25% of cap unused as of start of season
4 – Three 5% cap players (QB Fitzpatrick, DE Stroud)

= 21 AP remaining for free agency and renegotiations

That's manageable, especially if we don't leave money on the table the way we did last season.


QB is the obvious pivot point here. The total cap isn't really an AP problem for us, so we could just cut QB Fitzpatrick if we were so inclined. With a legitimate free agent out there who could start for us, that would be an AP wash – we'd save the 2 AP cost of keeping him >5% of the cap, and we'd use those 2 AP to presumably sign a new starter. Alternatively, we could draft a “QB of the future” here and cut Fitz to let the new guy take over. Or, we could just roll with him another year and hope he get back on track a bit better. All viable options.

I will get some of the RFA stuff taken care of early here, to clarify our ability to move in open free agency:

1 – Sign RFA player to his requested multi year contract (LT Bell)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (LB Mouton)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (LB Casas)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (DE Edwards)

That's all we have, but it does bring us up to within 1 LB if a legal roster. Still a need position, but not quite so critical as before.

The free agent market at QB is terrible. Once again, it's Michael Vick staring us in the face as the best option available.

I decide to initiate a trade, sending G Andy Levitre to Pittsburgh for their 3rd round pick, and costing us 1 AP in the process. He's a red flag guy and I am trying to clean out our chemistry, and get more run-focused inside. I also expore trades for CB McKelvin, but I don't think we will get much for him it appears, so I shelve the idea for now. Last season we were offered a deal for him... if it happens again this season, we will likely bite.

1 – Initiating trade of player(s) for less than 2nd round pick (G Levitre for PIT 3)

Among the FA class, I have a few targets in mind. DE Alan Branch looks solid and fairly young, and RG Marshall Yanda looks like a good fit to step into the void created by trading Levitre. Yanda also wants a 5yr deal, so we have a chance to lock up a long term asset there, and I like that potential.

2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (DE Alan Branch)
2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (DT Anthony Hargrove)

I decide to wait on G Yanda – his deal will be expensive, and my hope is that I'm the only team willing to pay him (thus, we could get him by just putting in his requested offer). The offer to DT Hargrove is an attempt to move this team to a 4-3 front – he's cheap and pretty good, and we are better suited, I think, to play that front if we can add one more guy like him.

So, Branch and Hargrove both sign, immediately. That's nice – both are cheap and ought to be solid for us. Our D-line suddenly looks a lot better, and releasing DE Marcus Stroud (and saving the 2 AP) is looking much more viable.

G Yanda will not be easy – he's got 5 offers, most over his requested amount. To land him, we will need to come in strong. I drop in my offer – $6m a season, half in bonus. It ought to put us in command to get him, and I think he's a key addition for us if so.

2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (G Marshall Yanda)

In two more stages, we sign Yanda. Adding a guard as our “big move” isn't terribly exciting, but given the options available, I think it's sound here. I decide to wait a few more stages, and then move in with some minsal cheap moves.

0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (S Sean Considine)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (TE Alge Crumpler)
2 – Offer FA player a three-year minsal contract (QB Brian Brohm, now a mentor)
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (CB Reggie Corner)

That's 11 AP used, leaving 8 more if our draft goes according to plan (up to 12 AP, with the added 3rd round pick). I think we're done for now, as I see three veterans I will need to renegotiate (at 2 AP each, presumably). We'll head into the draft with 48 players under contract, and a nearly legal roster already on board.

Draft – we'll start with BPA, target OLB and S, and look for a project QB along the way.


I was not dying for a WR here, but Cassidy looks really good, and he's an easy addition, likely a future star. Rest are mostly role players, I doubt there's a serious creeper or future impact player here, but I could see our future DB dime package featuring a couple of guys from this draft.

9 AP remaining, and 3 renegs pending. Not much room to breathe.

1 – Sign a FA rookie player to 2 or 3 yr contract (CB Gene Prior)
0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (QB Mel Varney)
0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (LB Teddy Toney)
0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (TE Ronnie Feldman)

Plus, we have a veteran holdout, so we spend 2 more AP to work things out with WR Easley.

2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (WR Marcus Easley)
2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (TE Shawn Nelson)
2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (S Jairus Byrd)

This leaves me with 2 AP, and one more guy I want to renegotiate... but it would cost 3 AP to give him his requested deal. And now by virtue of these last renegotiations, I am over my 25% cap limit as well. Awesome. I figure things out, and the best avenue is to cut my way back under the 25% level – so DE Marcus Stroud is gone. So, with our remaining 2 AP, my plan now is just to sign one more multi-year rookie, and to carry 58 into training camp again.

1 – Sign a FA rookie player to 2 or 3 yr contract (CB Randall Perez)
1 – Carry up to 60 players into training camp (58)

I'll spare you the full tracker report, and instead share the highlights:


No major surprises, I suppose – more veteran dropoff, and some modest gains among the youngsters. Even with a rookie moving in to start at C, I think I like the looks of our OL better and better, especially with a legitimate anchor player in Marshal Yanda.

2012 season


Season Preview and Goals
Roster Strength: 33
Cohesion Ratings: 74-62-65-71
Affinity Index: 15
Last Year's Results: 6-10
Predicted Results: 7-9
Keys to Success: Reduce turnovers, improve ypa passing, improve run D


We open with a win, and get to a decent 2-2 mark. Our passing game has been awful again, but the pass defense has been good, and is keeping us afloat, it seems. We run out three straight losses, and then one win to get to the halfway point at 3-5. Fitz is at 11/11 in his ratio, still on target for more than 20 picks. We are throwing the ball 42 times as game... it's probably time to elevate the level of competency behind center. WR Marcus Easley is getting just way too many targets (96 so far, at 5.4 ypt) and that's a drag on our offense as well. We need to reshuffle the deck soon to get more of those balls going towards Cassidy (rookie struggles, but bars look great).

We somehow win two games with 42 and 33 points (with 17 targets to Cassidy in the 2 games, incidentally) and at 5-5 we again get to whisper about a postseason run. At 6-6, we're still in the picture, though the 9-3 Pats seem to have the division sewn up. Two losses end that talk, and we limp home to a final record of 6-10.


Okay, so some takeaways here. The QB position, I think, can be declared a failure. That might be the single biggest obstacle between us and a winning record. We will seek to remedy that next season. We have another issue looming – CJ Spiller is out until “late 2013” so we have a RB crisis afoot as well.

As a long-suffering Bills fan in RL, I'm very much enjoying this QS.

As a teaser,I'll mention that I opened this briefly today, and was looking desperately to find a new QB, while over my shoulder the real Ryan Fitzpatrick was ripping up the Ravens defense like he was just making a brief stop-over on his direct trip to Canton.

Early 2013

Okay, with two losing seasons behind us, it's time for a more substantial overhaul. I expect we will jettison Ryan Fitzpatrick and Lee Evans, and basically commit to a pretty new look on our offense, basically building around WR Cassidy. One direction that may make sense on that front would be to stack up my WR at flanker behind Cassidy, making Easley basically the slot receiver, and to move Lecuona to become the top guy at split end, where his low RR would make him a solid “wingman” type who can be effective going deep (thinking Alvin Harper here).

I am generally comfortable with the direction of the defense, but as we likely let CB McKelvin walk this year, we may have a chance to move forward with chemistry there, which I generally try to do when I can. I have a run-stopper as my MLB now, he's pretty marginal but while the team is weak, that's basically okay. I am throwing a lot of bodies into my secondary, a strategy that seems to work okay for me as long as they have the right mix of limited skills.

Overall, my target positions for investment this year look like: QB, OT, RB, LB

I am open to re-signing RB Jackson and making him our top option this year, but in my experience my results from a “pretty good” RB like him tend to be inseparable from a “piece of junk” guy I could land with a late-round draft pick, or for nothing after the draft. RB Shannon Blades has pretty good endurance and a handful of decent bars, and my guess is if we dropped him in as our starter he'd rack up 3.9 ypc more or less the same as we'd get from Jackson, or a 2nd round draft pick. So, my bias is basically to write off the RB position (in the absence of Spiller, who seems to be good, if he can get over his hernia without dying on us).


We head into 2013 with 41 players signed and about 46m in cap space (25% is $38.5m). We are close to legal already, but as detailed above I'm not thrilled with everything we have going on here.

One good twist as we start up the season – RB Spiller is listed as only P-2, despite being labeled as available “late 2013” as last season closed out. That's good for us, as I'm going to be fine with him and a couple of bums. I guess I fell for the head fake there.


Anyway, here's my AP plan for the season:

0 – Hire all staff during last stage
0 – Use no rookie interviews
12 – Use allocation of draft picks
10 – Implement custom gameplans at start of season
0 – Implement staff-controlled depth chart for full season
3 – Set injury rate at 150
0 – Leave 25% of cap unused as of start of season
0 – No 5% cap players (QB Fitzpatrick is over, but I doubt he will be around)
__
25 AP for free agency and renegotiations

Actually, I might end up looking at default gameplans for this year, especially if we are going to trot out a rookie QB. If we'll be bad anyway, not much need to gameplan our way to 7 wins instead of 3 (or whatever). That might free up some AP for other things.

1 – Send former 4th or 5th round pick or undrafted rookie to European league (C Gust)

I am not going to use the tag on DT Kyle Williams, but re-signing him is a top priority – even if it pushes us over the $7m/yr level and costs us extra AP. Hopefully it won't come to that, though.

0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (LB Neal Mouton)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (LB Teddy Toney)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (QB Mel Varney)

And, in our moment of truth, I check out the free agent quarterback market... and see that the best option is... Michael Vick. Who himself is down to 34/34. Ugh.

Okay, we need to lock up DT Williams, and it's going to cost us 2 AP if we do it as a flat deal (he'll be over the 5% level) – so my thinking now is just to submit his original request, and hope he doesn't become the subject of a bidding war.

I also find a very solid CB Jerraud Powers sitting in free agency asking for only about $1.1m a year – so I get in an offer for him expeditiously, seeking to lock him up **way** under market. 6th year CB Tracy Porter is a similar case, and gets a similar offer. Landing these two would mean our depth at CB would be a serious strength, suddenly.

1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (DT Williams)
2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (CB Powers)
2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (CB Porter)
2 – Offer FA player a three-year minsal contract (RB Peyton Hillis)
2 – Offer FA player a three-year minsal contract (re-sign CB Reggie Corner)

RB Hillis resolves a chemistry problem for us, and gives us a rotation-caliber running back, and also a usable return man. A lot to get for a minsal deal, I think. Corner is a solid zone guy, which is okay for our dome coverage.

Given a degree of flexibility we have with our AP situation, I decide to... **gasp**... make a trade with an AI team. We send WR Easley (A decent guy, but one who seems to be sucking too many targets for my tastes) to Dallas, along with our 5th round pick. We get back their late 2nd round pick,plus their 6th and 7th rounders. Kind of feels weird... I can barely recall the last time I made a trade anything like this with an AI team playing solo. (Also... as a note on the Ap system... I make no effort to keep track of creepers and such in this universe, but I suppose someone who did could exploit the trade system here, as the AP cost to obtain a proven creeper player might be too low, I suppose...just a thought)

2 – Initiating trade of player(s) for 2nd round pick or more (WR Easley to DAL)

(The net effect of this trade is less than the 2 AP... as I offload a 5th round pick that likely would have cost us 1 AP to use, and add a 6th and 7th that amount to 3yr contracts for zero AP... at last there's a serious reason to try to add late round draft picks!)

Okay... into the early stages of free agency we go. Main issue is whether we can get DT Williams re-upped for just his asking price, or whether we will get outbid there.

And in one stage, not only do we see that our offer will be short... it's already over. Kyle Williams signs in Miami, and we're suddenly out our best overall player. Wow. DT Troup and DT Hargrove are both okay, and ought to be fine for a middling team... but I just didn't see this quick a change in the works. Guess we should have spent the extra AP to pony up to keep him, eh?

By week 8, everyone else we had targeted has signed, except CB Powers, who has seven offers – ours is easily the strongest, but he's taking his time.

At this point, there's also a bidding war afoot for DE Ray Edwards. We have Branch, Maybin, and Hughes manning the DE rotation... but Edwards is a good deal better than any of them. I am guessing that an all-bonus deal for Edwards just below the 5% level would have a solid chance of landing him (though that's not a certainty). I'd likely have to cut one or two veterans to remain under the 25% salary cap (assuming I still needed to do so), but I decide it would be worth it. I put in the deal, and hope for the best – he's clearly the last impact player available.

2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (DE Edwards)

3 years, $22 million, we land Edwards. In the same stage, we lose out on CB Powers, who goes to Detroit for similar money to ours. That stinks, seems like offering $1.5m a year rather than $1.3m would have made the difference... either one would have been a steal. With Porter in the fold, and Edwards pushing us close to our cap limit, I look for a trade for CB Terrence McGee. No takers, so I let him walk, clearing more than $4m in salary this year.

We had an allocation of 25 AP for free agency and renegotiations... and we've used 13. I think it's time to finish out the free moves, and then head into the draft.

0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (LB Keyaron Fox, serious pass rusher)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (CB Joselio Hansen, zone guy, possible ST gunner)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (TE Marcedes Lewis)

49 players, and only a punter short of a legal roster. We have an early first and two seconds, so we at least have hopes of filling in a few more long term slots in this draft.

2013 Draft and onward

For the draft, there really aren't any great-looking QB in this draft, so the top pick is likely to just be a BPA, and we will cross our fingers that some dumbass team fails to re-sign a good RFA there, or something. Otherwise, it looks like our options really are down to Fitz and maybe Brian Brohm. Otherwise, I'd be fine if we landed an anchor-caliber player at OT, LB, or possibly DB. This roster doesn't have a long list of desperate needs, but we clearly do have places where we could stand to improve.

With a total monster in the draft at left tackle, and the other glittering prizes off the board, I decide to move up to get the OT. We trade Oakland our third round pick plus LT Demetrius Bell (a bit upset about not starting as it is) to land OT Drew Bernstein, who appears to be a complete franchise player. Now, what this Cincinnati kid is doing (1) in Cincinnati rather than Long Island, and (2) going to school at New Mexico State rather than tOSU, I will never know. But he's ours now.

2 – Initiating trade of player(s) for 2nd round pick or more (Trade up in draft to get pick 1.6)

Left without anyone I actually like in late round 2, I initiate a trade to get Arizona's 1st rounder next year. Why not? 2+4+2=1, by the way.

5 – Any trade involving future 1st round pick from another team


So, our moves to pick up late round picks land us several 3-year contracts with roster-filler type players. I think this might actually make trading worthwhile in this setup – not that any of these guys are actually going to be any good, but they are cheaper to sign than free agents.

So, with the trade for a future 1st, I have possibly forsaken my own gameplan for this year – which is basically fine. With Fitzpatrick at the helm, I don't think we were going anywhere anyhow, so this will be a lost season, probably. However, by dealing away the picks in rounds 2,3, and 4 we actually save several AP that we would have used to exercise those draft picks. So, when we tally it up – our AP accounting at this point shows we're at 21 AP used. And with the draft coming in 4 below my projections, we actually have 8 AP remaining. That actually will allow us to reneg a few guys, and still use our custom gameplans.

0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (TE Clancy)

This gives us 60 players into training camp.

1 – Carry up to 60 players into training camp


Well, two defensive veterans take massive dropoffs – but we are building up those positions anyway, so we ought to be okay – just younger. Our young punter looks good – awesome – and it seems we may have something with this rookie DT, if he ever smells the playing field.

Releasing LB Greenway ends up helping us toward our salcap target of 25% below, too. And it accelerate our move of young Frankie Preston into the Sam slot, where he ought to put up seriously good numbers in our rebuilt 3-4.

Anyway, I don't see another way to go at QB, so we will see what one more season bring us here:

2 – Each player on roster for week 1 occupying 5-10% of cap (QB Fitzpatrick)
2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (G Wood)

And even with a couple of veteran cuts, I end up unable to easily get down to 25% under thee cap – meaning that's our final 3 AP:

3 – Leave 20% of cap unused as of start of season

Off we go – I don't expect much from this season, but we'll see whether we are a 4-win team, or a 9-win. Either one is within the realm of possibility, I think.

2013 Season

Season Preview and Goals
Roster Strength: 46
Cohesion Ratings: 83-70-63-63
Affinity Index: 19
Last Year's Results: 6-10
Predicted Results: 6-10
Keys to Success: Need improvement in lots of places, but better QB play and turnover ratio are central

We start off 0-2, then win three to actually move to a winning record. Fitz is 5/4. Acceptable. And our turnover ratio is even. Acceptable. WR Cassidy is still pretty weak (we're 17 of 41 on targets to him), but that has to work out for this team to be going anywhere at all, obviously.

3 straight losses after typing that remind me of who we really are. Fitz at 6/8, team at -3, both unacceptable, as is a 3-5 record. We limp the rest of the way, but finish with a draft-position-killing 2 wins to rally all the way to 8-8.


Not a terrible season for Fitz overall. We don't run enough to really know whether this attack is serious – maybe that ought to become our bread and butter next season (likely without Blades, who is clearly a fumbler). The return on our investment in DE Edwards is pretty disappointing – S Byrd remains far and away our best defensive player. I am fairly happy with my centerpiece defensive players going forward – I feel that this team mostly needs better QB play and some time to gel.

2014 Early Preseason

When I play solo FOF, I almost always just build a team up from nothing, develop almost exclusively from within, and rarely play around in the free agent market. This is a peaceful way to play, as I don't get wrapped up in any sort of MUST WIN NOW mentality.

Honestly, I am pissed that my Bills still stink. That's kind of cool. I really feel like splashing for big money on a quarterback, and getting serious about this team. I don't feel that way very often. Refreshing.

Anyway...CB Hanson retired, no loss. That's it. We head toward free agency with 32 players signed and $69m in cap space, about 45% of the total cap.

Our staff is out of contract – and it's time to decide whether we want to put any AP into this. My thinking is that landing and keeping a quality HC might be worth the 3 AP per year it costs. I find a new coach, age 41, who looks good enough to try to pursue – I put in his requested deal, in hopes that he will only cost us 2 AP aa year, at least initially. He takes our 3yr offer, so we have that locked up – and hopefully he can develop into a top tier coach, and we can make enough cash to hold on to him. Coach Morris Weeks' HC ratings are VG-G-G-G-G as we bring him aboard.

We re-sign our old scout and OC, but our DC is too expensive – his demand is beyond our owner limit. We add a solid DC, actually, employing the half-HC-request (this might be a loophole, as I see it in action – we basically had no limit on coordinator spending with that rule in place).

So, our basic AP plan for this year will be a little more cluttered than recent ones:

2 – Hire HC at request, hire other staff during last stage
0 – Use no rookie interviews
15 – Use allocation of draft picks (extra 1st round pick inflated cost)
10 – Implement custom gameplans at start of season
0 – Implement staff-controlled depth chart for full season
3 – Set injury rate at 150
0 – Leave 25% of cap unused as of start of season
2 – 5% cap players: S Byrd
–
32 AP cost of routine management

A total of about 12-14 AP to maneuver in free agency seems manageable to me, as we will likely need to do a few renegotiations to hold things together.

0 – Send former 6th or 7th round pick to European league (S Kirk)

It turns out we have hit the jackpot in the draft lottery – the pick we obtained from Arizona ended up being 1.1. Wow. QB Brian Brohm, our only guy under contract, suddenly developed the mentor skill... this is surely meant to be. This. Is. It. I haven't yet triggered the draft class, but it's been a long time of playing solo FOF since I had this moment of anxiety. I'm not a prayer type person, but I send some good digital vibes in the direction of my CPU as I click the “Begin Free Agency” button...

Okay. Not off the charts, perhaps. But good enough to be a done deal. The future QB for YOUR Buffalo Bills...



So – in the combines, he's 2 red and 4 blue – with one red coming in the dash. But that QB central corridor of 44/16 is pretty solid on both counts, telling me that this guy is at least on track to be a solid, above average starter. If I'm playing “all out” within these rules – then there's n way I can spend this pick on the top-tier OT, CB, or RB who are likely to go in the top handful of picks behind this guy. So, we're in.

We also hold pick 1.17 (but no second rounder) so we have a shot to add one more impact player as well. I am thinking DB, but could be persuadable in any of several directions, I suppose.

Okay – we'll get started with our youngsters.

1 – Sign RFA player to his requested multi year contract (RT Leroy Ruth)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (DE Harris Hughes)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (RB Shannon Blades)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (WR C.J. Lecuona)

We have a few more RFAs who are worth signing, but when they cost 1 AP each, it becomes a bit tougher. I take a look at our roster, and here are my thoughts on major needs:

QB – have our mentor, will draft the starter, need a fill-in
RB – solid talent, though a guy to slot ahead of Blades might be useful
FB – Ganther is decent veteran starter, should take a zero-AP deal to stay
TE – Nelson emerging as stud, but need depth
WR – Cassidy signed, Lecuona to 1yr deal, Evans likely to be cut – need some depth here
OL – Have 5 starters signed, need some depth
DL – Have 3 DE and 2 DT, could use one or two more
LB – Young starters at 2 key slots are only guys signed – need area
DB – Very deep with bodies, could use starting talent

So, as far as major additions – I'm looking for DB, WR, and maybe OL. We need to add more players at LB, WR, OL, and DL, but not necessarily top tier contributors.

I decide to start with my free AP moves,just to see where we can clear off some “need” areas right away:

0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (FB Ganther)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (LB Quincy Black)

I decide that with our cap troubles, my main objective will be to lock up a fair number of decent free agents without big money. I look for some targets, and get at least a couple good hits:

2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (WR Mario Manningham)
2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (FS Antrel Rolle)
2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (DE Aaron Maybin)

That's my whole agenda in the early stages of free agency – really just role players I hope to land fairly cheaply.

The exodus of guys leaving the BUF roster is quick and decisive – DT Troup heading for pretty big money after sitting last year on IR for us, DE Carrington, LT Wang, and apparently soon Ryan Fitzpatrick are all going to cash in. Sorta makes me wonder – why couldn't I win with all that desirable talent?

We are the only bidders on the 5 players I had targeted – meaning we probably overpaid for the real-money guys. So it goes. Nobody got a fat deal, and I fully expect we just added 5 guys who will all see the field pretty regularly, possibly 3-4 as starters.

I need to move now if I want to retain LB Danny Batten, a run-stopper I like as my starting 3-4 WILB. We match his requested offer (and the pending deal from Green Bay) and hope/expect he will re-up here due to loyalty.

1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (LB Danny Batten)

In week 6, S Antrel Rolle surprises us and accepts a deal elsewhere, so one of my pursuits comes up empty. But by week 8, we have 5 new contracts inked – and are up to 41 players signed to the roster now. We remain short at OL and LB as well as QB, so we have needs to fill, still. Now is the best time to look for minsal veterans, I think.

0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (LB Kamerion Wimbley)

We will move Wimbley to the weak side, and in our system he could be an 8-10 sack guy pretty easily.

2 – Offer FA player a three-year minsal contract (LT Lamont Storm)

Storm is a mentor, only a 5th year guy, and honestly looks good enough to play is we need him to – worth the AP price to lock him up super cheap.

That's 10 AP used, and I was thinking we'd have 12-14 to use through free agency. Not bad for now, we can do more fill-ins after the draft if need be.

2014 Draft and Training Camp

The plan for pick 1.1 is easy, then we go BPA after that, and then we'll see. OL depth would be good, a good cover man good, and maybe a receiver in that mix as well (though Manningham is pretty much what I was looking for as a starting slit end).


I trade our 4th and 5th round picks away to land 6th and 7th rounders in this draft and next – it makes sense for AP purposes, at least.

1 – Any other trade within current draft

We end up with, by my latest count, 11 AP remaining. Not bad at all.

0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (FB Gati)
0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (RB Ronald Knoll)
0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (FB Grey)
1 – Offer any other FA player his requested contract (TE Onobun)

So, we end up carrying exactly 53 into training camp, and it looks like we can bank a few AP for next season, unless I want to do a lot of renegotiating. We have 11 AP left before renegotiations.


So...wow. We dodge the VSOD with the QB, at least – he's hanging at 36/74 and gained a formation. Fine. But receiver... wow. Otis Burrows basically fell apart, clearly a VSOD. And Tommy Beard roared to life, clearly just a volatility jump, rather than a true gain, I suspect. Anyway, they are now rated 21/40 and passable reserve (Burrows) and 30/43 and a solid wingman type. Seriously, these two probably just reversed places on my envisioned future depth chart. Not what I actually wanted, but I guess we'll make do. Sorta disappointed to fritter away the sort of pure speed we saw in Burrows, though. Beard probably will be a future gunner and tremendous position leader, though, assuming he's a long term keeper.

Anyway – I don't see a major change in our gameplans for this year, as I don't expect an 11-formation rookie to light things on fire in any case. But next season, I think we begin building around Brady in earnest, and we ought to show signs of being a franchise that's “on the right track.”

2014 Season

Season Preview and Goals
Roster Strength: 44
Cohesion Ratings: 63-79-67-65
Affinity Index: 27
Last Year's Results: 8-8
Predicted Results: 7-9
Keys to Success: Don't really care about this year, just keep playing together, develop some cohesion, and don't get anyone killed


So, we open with a solid 23-10 win, Brady is crisp, and Spiller posts a 100-yard game. Nice to see. Brady's 3 for 36 rushing is a nice add, too. 18 of 33 targets went at the starting WR, which is basically what I want to see, also. One game, but it's what I want to see.

At 3-1, we are back to earth a bit – Brady's ratio is a modest 6/6, Spiller is just over 250 yards, and our turnover ratio is an ugly -5. This doesn't really look much like a winning team to me, I'm not going to cash in my winnings quite yet on that future bet.

The entire division is 4-4 at the halfway point. Best news we have is that Cassidy, the offensive centerpiece if I get my way, is now up over 10 yards per target for the year. If this guy can become a serious workhorse feature-receiver, this team can go as far as he can take us.

Again, I am not hung up on the record this year, so 5-7 doesn't irk me, I thought this was a losing team right now. The good start was weird, but we are back on earth now for certain. Defense still is lacking, and we still turn the ball over too much.

Brady misses the last 3 weeks with an injury, but it doesn't look too serious. We win one late game, but end up fairly well up the track.


So, basically we show some signs of life in the rushing game – though this may be substantially due to being behind a lot. But we finally post a serious year for Spiller – horrifyingly enough, his first 1,000 yard season for us. Happy with Cassidy settling in as the major target in the passing game – I would be pleased if we can push his targets up and beyond 10 per game, even. A perfect passing gameplan for us is probably 12 targets to Cassidy, 5 each to Manningham and Nelson, and then another 10 scattered across the team.

On defense, it's hard to like most of the individual players but be disappointed in the whole performance. That's where I am, basically. Byrd seems great, and my front three seem solid, and I mostly am pleased with the red bars on the LB and DB group overall. But boy, do we need to see better numbers – especially against the pass.

With our remaining 11 AP, I want to commit to a few players to avoid open free agency:

2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (CB Donnie Borders)

CB Borders is not a star,but is solid and his requested reneg goes out 4 years and will remain under the 5% limit. Can't ask for a lot more.

4 – Sign current player to unrestricted renegotiation (RB CJ Spiller)

Spiller wants a ton of money, and I think winnowing him down to being below the 5% threshold makes sense as an expense of AP here. He will remain expensive, but now that we are finally harnessing him better, we might as well stick with him. His 5yr, $41.7m deal ought to skirt just below the 5% level.

Now, the twist here is that most of my expiring contracts are guys who are in year 3 – who will be RFA next year. Locking some of them up long term is not usually a strong option here, but I think it makes sense to avoid the logjam on a couple guys I know I am going to want for more than just year 4. So, two more:

2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (LB Frankie Preston)
2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (C Rondell Gust)

So, we burn 1 AP at the end. SO it goes.

Atlanta wins the title, and we have two all-pros in 1st teamer S Jairus Byrd, and 2nd teamer WR Maurice Cassidy. Onward!

even the FOF bills suck

[u]2015 Early Stages and Free Agency[u]

We have a curious retirement – DE Ray Edwards. Seriously, pretty much every big dollar move we have made on veteran players has resulted in shit with this team. Our $22m to Edwards yielded 9.5 sacks over two seasons, and then a one way ticket out of town. Awesome.

0 – Send former 6th or 7th round pick to European league (WR Tommy Beard)

Not as much cap space as last year here – we have 31 signed, and about $61m in cap space. Our 25% limit is $42m unspent, so we have space-- but not a ton of it.

2 – Hire HC at request, hire other staff during last stage
0 – Use no rookie interviews
12 – Use allocation of draft picks
10 – Implement custom gameplans at start of season
0 – Implement staff-controlled depth chart for full season
3 – Set injury rate at 150
0 – Leave 25% of cap unused as of start of season
4 – 5% cap players: S Byrd, QB Brady
–
31 AP used, 19 remaining

Amidst our RFAs, we have a number of 4th year guys, so to really lock guys down we may need to use the 2 AP “unrestricted” deals. Not the most cost effective, but the alternative is to sign them to 1yr requests and then have to face the open market next year.

0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (FB Gati)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (S Perez)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (FB Gray)
2 – Sign RFA player on an unrestricted new contract (WR Briggs)
2 – Sign RFA player on an unrestricted new contract (FS Wiggins)

So, 4 AP spent, and we are up to 35 players signed. K Stryzinski wants a 1yr deal – we'll wait to see where we are first, that's an easy one to land in a late round and fill up for a few years.

We look into free agency. I want to keep QB Brohm, but will have to wait if I want to lock him up for three minsal years- he's asking for a shade too much to listen to that deal now. Past that, we need to add a couple of players along the defensive front, and past that we are basically free to look for value more then immediate “need.” Of course, this is a team that won only 6 games, so I shouldn't be acting like the roster is all set. We're just close to legal already, even at only 35 total players.

0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (re-sign LB Black)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (re-sign QB Brohm)
1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract (re-sign TE Onobun)
1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract (re-sign WR Lecuona)
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (re-sign LB Batten)
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (re-sign DE Hughes)

Nothing too exciting here, DE Hughes is the only guy looking for a little real money. I'm looking around for open free agents worth pursuing – and not finding a ton of candidates. None of the top tier look to be worth the cap space, so I end up pursuing a relatively cheap WR

2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (WR Deon Butler)

We go from here, with 10 AP used so far, and see who is willing to come aboard. Happily, everyone is signed in a few stages, leaving us some flexibility. My thinking is to sign my last free veteran, and in the later stages find another decent vet who is looking for 3yrs, and sign him to his requested deal (for 1 AP).

1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (re-sign DT Hargrove)
1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract (re-sign CB Gene Prior)

Not as exciting as I had envisioned,to be candid. Anyway, we wrap up early FA and head into another draft without any interviews.

2015 Draft and Training Camp

We hold a top ten pick, and since the draft is jam paclked with defensive linemen, I assume that's where we will go, as it's a good fit for our needs.


I am hopeful that RB Bundredn can be the complementary back to Spiller that we have lacked since we let Fred walk – and he has the bars that suggest he can be that guy. Nothing else too exciting here – LB Hanson at 11/18 won't get playing time as long as I let the staff do my depth charts, but we'll see what happens to him. I'm guessing he's one of those +4 creeper types who jumps to 16/22 or so, and then it's tough to know what to do, since he seems to be creeping toward a pretty unimpressive rating of maybe 28 or 32 or so.

As we approach training camp, I check out our need for renegotiations. One ends up being basically free:

2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (S Byrd)

This drops him from being a 5% player for the next couple of years, so the AP cost of the reneg is a wash.

2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (TE Nelson)

By my count, I now have 11 AP remaining. But that assumes I remain 25% under the salcap... using AP to go after one of the handful of strong free agents here (and it's expensive to do so – 5 AP for the recent cap casualties) would cost me now and beyond, likely. There's a 7th yr LB (Cushing) who would be an impact player... but I'm not sure that's what this team “needs” overall. I think the play here is to bank some AP for next season, and hopefully clear off a couple salaries then to make things work. Thinking longer term, I might want to assume control of the depth chart for 3 AP a year – not this season, but maybe next season.

0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (RB Brett Monroe)
0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (DE Johnnie Schwartzhaupt)
0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (C Walter Bishop)

1 – Carry up to 60 players into training camp (57)

At this point, we have 10 AP left in the tank, and have basically done the renegotiations I had in mind for this season. We ought to be able to bank quite a bit here, and maybe have the flexibility to make a significant splash next season.


TE Nelson's drop seems more like a volatility hit than aging. The rest of the negatives were within expectations – the losses at CB make that position suddenly a more urgent worry than I had considered. LB Hanson's big jump is more than I had guessed, and now I think we might really want to get him onto the field. QB George probably has a future also, at the very least as a backup – but hopefully more promising as trade bait. Our rookie class appears to be easily our best with this franchise so far.

Okay, we get through pre-season, no major injuries, and we are ready to cut loose into the full 16. Down to 53, and ready to see what Van Brady and company can put together for us.

2015 Season

Season Preview and Goals
Roster Strength: 63 (still lower half)
Cohesion Ratings: 72-72-71-79 (bottom ten in all but secondary)
Affinity Index: 32 (conflict between RB Spiller and rookie Bundren hurts there)
Last Year's Results: 6-10
Predicted Results: 8-8
Keys to Success: Development of QB Brady is the real key, running for 4.5+ ypc would help, defense creating turnovers

I pegged us as an 8-8 team, but variance of a few games from that is definitely possible. I don't think we are a winning team quite yet (and the measurables reinforce this) but I think this year the defense might step forward and become average overall, and with Brady developing at QB, I think we have a shot to improve on that side as well.

Week one is a mixed bag – a big win over Miami, 40-22, but Brady is immediately out for 6 weeks. Spiller and Bundren were both productive – though Bundren fumbled twice, some cause for alarm there. Through 4 games, we are inexplicably 4-0, mostly winning with defense without Brady. Spiller has almost 5.2 yards per carry, and DE Hughes has 5.5 sacks already from the right side! Pour offense is suddenly clicking really well – and this without our “franchise quarterback.”

So, we get to 7-0 behind Brohm, whose numbers (18/10 for a 92 rating i) are strong but not seemingly the driver of our winning. We have to go back to Brady, of course – he's the franchise. But 7-0 has an awfully nice feel to it. New England is 6-0, so we aren't exactly leaps and bounds ahead of the hot breath either.

Brady is great as we paste JAX 31-6, and we seem to be right on track, though still tied with the Pats at 8-0. We lose at the Jets, and lose Brady again – just in time to play the Patriots. NE edges us out at our place, 24-21, to take true command of the division. They are 10-0 and getting it done behind Brodie Croyle, of all people. We get to 9-3 behind Brohm, before Brady is back and ready to go again.

At 10-5, with one game to play, we are already locked in to the #5 playoff seed. Tough to complain too much, but we could end up with the 3rd best record in the entire league and still be the #5 conference seed, which sucks. We win at NE in the finale, and that gives us a modest lift, I guess.


So, #1 in the league in yards per rush and in yards per pass? Really? And a majority of that behind our minsal backup QB? Wow. Big year from Spiller can get lost in the other numbers – posting over 5 ypc while we are a winning team is doubly impressive to me.

The D was about what I had hoped – pretty good against the pass (and our pass rush is coming right along) and slightly better than a complete failyre against the run. That's basically the goal, and that focus ought to serve us well as the offense continues to play better. We caused 32 turnovers, suddenly leaping into the top 6 in that stat – good to see, wonder what I/we did right.

Postseason game capsules:

Wild Card: Buffalo (11-5) at Jacksonville (9-7) – We are favored on the road here, and crushed them in the regular season. Set us up nicely for a high scoring one-and-out showing, as the Jags win 35-26. We scored on 3 of our first 5 possessions, but that was only a 9-0 lead, and settling for FG is always an ominous thing in a game you're dominating. We folded up, gave up 4 TD to QB John beck (!?!?!?!) and will watch the playoffs from home.

New England stomps on the Jags the next week, and marches on to the title.

Among award winners, DE Brenden McKinney is named DROY (in a strong class loaded with DE) – but he's the only guy from our roster to get tagged for anything.

We book 8 AP for next season, and seemingly have a lot to build on from here.

Just to reiterate, I'm really enjoying this.

Glad to hear it. I have *long* wanted to play a solo FOF career "all out" but within rules, and have it remain interesting and challenging. Right now, this is pretty much filling the bill. My guess is that things will get tougher under the AP system when I have two or three players over the 5% limit (and costing AP just to have them on the roster each year), and when some of my younger players are coming due as free agents.

2016 Early Offseason and Free Agency

We suffer no retirements, bring back 35 players under contract, and have about 35% of our cap free – so some money to spend.

Here's my AP plan for the season:

2 – Hire HC at request, hire other staff during last stage
0 – Use no rookie interviews
10 – Use allocation of draft picks
10 – Implement custom gameplans at start of season
0 – Implement staff-controlled depth chart for full season
3 – Set injury rate at 150
0 – Leave 25% of cap unused as of start of season
2 – 5% cap players: QB Brady
–
27 AP used, 31 remaining

We clearly have latitude to make moves if we want to – a big splash in free agency, or to spread some AP around on things like rookie interviews (might have avoided my current RB conflict situation) or depth charting. We have options. Maybe more than I really ought to have if I'm trying to push my own limits with this 50 AP restriction.

0 – Send former 6th or 7th round pick to European league (LB Hanson)
2 – Sign RFA player on an unrestricted new contract (LB Boles – 3yr, $3.9m)
2 – Sign RFA player on an unrestricted new contract (S Kirk – 3yr, $3.1m)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (DE Schwartzhaupt)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (DT Eric Randall)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (FB Benjamin Gati)

That's 40 players on hand before we even open up free agency. We hold 7 draft picks, and can grab six free (no AP cost) players (three minsal old guys and three minsal undrafted rookies). So, we already have a path to 53 players plus without using a single additional AP. Our only illegalities on the roster are easily remedied – TE, P, and LB. In other words, we have wide options on the table. The goal here is to be playing “all out” so we'll see what we can cook up.

1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (re-sign DE Alan Branch)
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (re-sign CB Tracy Porter)
1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract (re-sign DE Onobun)
1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract (re-sign LB Batten)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (re-sign LB Black)

I only have one open free agent in mind – it's FB Mike Tolbert, a solid 9th yr veteran who would be an affinity bonanza for us. Tolbert gets a solid couple of offers, and I need to decide whether I want to put in a fairly rich 2 AP offer to land him. It's not a huge impact position, but I think this makes too much sense not to do, so I take the plunge:

2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (FB Tolbert)

QB Brian Brohm is asking for about $3m a year, and hasn't gotten any interest. Bady is in year 3, still supposedly being mentored. And Brady was hurt some last year watching Brohm play very well. Brohm is (again) a double affinity guy, with cohesion and a mentor – hard to pass that combination up.

1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract (re-sign QB Brohm, 1yr $3.3m)
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (re-sign FB Leon Gray)

So, we head toward the draft with a pretty comfortable roster of 48 players signed. If we are to hit the 25% mark this year, we will need to cut/reneg our way there – but the miss might only be enough to cost us 3 AP, so maybe no big deal. I have used 12 AP so far, from a working budget of 31. Plenty of room.

2016 Draft and Late Free Agency

So, our major team needs are probably: CB, OL, LB. If a stud guard lands to us in the late first, I could be fine making that move – and I'm not usually game for investing early picks at the lower impact positions, but I generally like where we are at most places. Rather have a 75/75 LG than another 44/44 CB.

Anyway...when pick #13 is on the clock and a serious WR is still there, I start exploring what it would take to move up and grab him. Playing all out, right? This is what I'd be doing if this were a big time MP league. Looks like our late 1st plus LB Grant Boles (good, but not really a special player) gets us pretty close. As enamored as I am of my Manningham/Butler combo at split end (where I might be pushing Butler soon, as he's a low-RR “wingman” type with good skills match for our offense) adding another potential star there could turn our offense into a juggernaut. WR Korey Spikes and his 4.37 speed looks like a diminutive blur on out outside of our offense, and it's tough to let go of that attractive notion.

I end up with a very complicated trade to move up here. We send Carolina three 1st round picks and this year's late 2nd. They send us back the 1.13 and their 1st next year, plus three riff-raff 6th and 7th round picks (the zero AP type). I will classify this in the highest AP cost category in which it applies, as I'm getting a future 1st out of the deal. LB Boles was initially in the mix, but came out as it was clear they valued draft picks more, and that's okay by me. We lose a net 1st rounder, but land a guy I think can become a foundation player for a very explosive offense (that already seems to have turned the corner to doing pretty well).


5 – Any trade involving future 1st round pick from another team (deal up to 1.13, get CAR 1st next year for two 1sts and two 2nds)
2 – Any other trade involving draft picks in future years (deal 4th and 5th for future 6ths and 7ths)

In round 3, the guy I chart as the BPA **by far** is yet another receiver. What the hell do I do here? We have a young stud QB, and are now overdeep at WR...so do I just go for the BPA guy even if he can't contribute right away? I look and look for other options, and eventually decide... what the hell. Take the quality, work out the roster later. I think Thomas Floyd has potential to be a solid #3 or #4 receiver, and that's good value in round three compared to all the special teamers and dime backs and whatnot out there. The nearest rival is the 5th ranked safety on the board (a guy better suited to play corner) and I decide to roll the dice and hope to grab both of them.

I watch the safety position, with only one guy gone it is looking good – but then Raymond Carpenter gets nabbed out of order at pick 120, and I miss out on my target guy. Lacking a good option at that point, I punt out of these rounds again, dealing our picks in rounds 4 and 5 for four 6th/7th round picks in the next two drafts. It's basically a wash in terms of AP, but gives me a few multi-year 0 AP guys down the road.

2016 Late Free Agency and Camp

Okay – even with the 5 AP trade in the mix, we still exit this draft with a big stack of action points available – 15. With this in mind, if we find a quality addition among the late FA cuts, I think I have a window to lock such a player up, despite the high AP cost. We really would benefit from a big add at one of our need positions, especially since I doubt we made any effect on them in this draft, as we got tangled up with wideouts. We hit late free agency with 52 players signed and 2 more unsigned rookies, and a fully legal roster-- so we are looking to ad quality, not just quantity. We are also above the 25% cap mark, so we will be expending AP on that, too, unless we do something drastic (the only meaningful cap cut I have is LG Yanda, who'd save us $3m).

Amidst the former RFA players allowed to walk is a CB who looks good enough to start for us, and who is asking for a 5yr contract – in the limited AP world, that's gold, as it's a chance to get multiple years out of one contract. He's asking for $26m, so he wants to get paid (long term seekers always do) but he only is seeking about $6m in bonus, so it would be a fairly easy-to-dump contract if that's the way things went. It's a 3 AP move, but I think it makes sense given our need at the position and his willingness to really lock up. And that 94 red bar in interceptions helps to seal the deal, too.

3 – Sign a FA player in his 4th year in league (CB Leroy Banta, 5yrs $27m)
1 – Offer any other FA player a one year contract (CB Reggie Corner)
1 – Offer any other FA player a one year contract (RB Brett Monroe)

These moves send us to 57 players, so I might as well pick up three free rookies to get to the 60 we get for the 1 AP cost.

0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (LB Banes, DT Tubbs, RB Devaney)
1 – Carry up to 60 players into training camp

Sitting on 9 more AP (with our cap position pending but likely to occupy 3 AP of that), I have the luxury of doing a few renegotiations to firm things up for next season. I will wait until after training camp, but expect to sew up three more guys longer term.


So, degradation among out older players – including new signee FB Tolbert. No shock. WR Otis Burrows likely just got himself a pink slip with a crappy camp and a hot competition for WR slots. Our LB corps is now looking like a target for some investment, with a dropoff from Boles (we ought to have dealt him to Carolina after all) and not much working right for us there.

C Robertson stole the starting job last year, and a bump this year is a great welcome – he may become a long term fixture there for us. G Goodlink had a nice camp, and with the dropoff from Yanda, the starting LG job may be his as soon as this year, but very likely next year.

Among the rookie class, WR Spikes held at 50/71 with an 85 for BPR and 39/66 for RR. I'm thinking this is a guy who posts about 1,000 yards on 120 targets by about next season, while Cassidy remains the go-to guy for 100 a game or so. That's going to make us pretty tough to contain.

The cutdown to 53 is perfunctory, we're ready to go.

3 – Leave 20% of cap unused as of start of season
4 – Sign current player to unrestricted renegotiation (WR Maurice Cassidy, 4yr $38.4m)
2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (G Eric Wood)

The move on Cassidy will keep him as a <5% guy each year, I'm pretty sure (it may be close next season). Signing G Wood reflects the worries I have at G already (he's moving to LG, and the rookie creeper starts at RG right away) but leaves us vulnerable to losing LB Preston, at another too-thin position.

Anyway, that exhausts our AP cache. Now on to the season.

2016 Season

Season Preview and Goals
Roster Strength: 75 (big jump)
Cohesion Ratings: 69-76-82-80
Affinity Index: 51
Last Year's Results: 11-5, lost in WC round
Predicted Results: 11-5
Keys to Success: Rookie WR could regress passing attack a bit, but if offense stays strong, we ought to remain a contender

I didn't expect 11 wins last year, but now I think we have enough going for us that I think we (a) ought to be a playoff team, and (b) could possibly make a run at the whole thing. I think next year is more likely to be “the year” but things could happen ahead of schedule. Nothing about the Pats looks that great to me, but it didn't last year either, and they were great. This year they have a 40/40 guy picked up cheap from Cinti as their nominal starting QB, it appears, as he now edges out 39/39 Brodie Croyle (who started the last two seasons).

We open with a powerful win on the road, 33-10 over the Jets. Brady is nearly perfect, Spiller+Cassidy+Spikes each go for 100, biggest visible weakness is Bundren looking bad as the backup RB when we had a big lead. Love the start. We get to 4-0 basically without breaking a sweat. The Pats, mercilessly, are also perfect. WR Spikes is surprising in the early going – with 460 yards and 4 TD on 36 targets (more than Cassidy's).

After a 5-0 start, we tumble three in a row, and are 6-3 when we finally face New England at their place. We paste the Pats 41-13, and take the head-to-head edge in the division, both teams at 7-3. But we lose two more in a row, to inexplicably fall to 7-5. We then hold serve at home against the Pats, and hold a strong one game edge on them for the division. A bye looks unlikely, but a #3 is better than a #5, I guess. We finish out with wins, and end up 11-5 again...but this time it's good enough for a bye week as the #2 seed behind Baltimore.


Seems like a different team than last year, really. Brady is getting good, we get that. But we are no longer able to run with any authority, it seems – Spiller dropped from 5.23 to 4.06 yards per carry – wow. We really are shutting down opposing pass attacks, as expected, at least.

DE McKinney looks like a beast in the making, though the sack total is still pending, I suppose. A teamwide 22.9 PR% is solid, but there's still room for improvement there, I think.

Anyway, we started a rookie at WR this year, and even with that fact we managed to post a yards-per-attempt 1.5 more than anyone else in the league. This team may not win it all this year, but we are poised to be a dominant force now going forward, for certain.

Incidentally, Carolina's 9-7 record will keep us from truly cashing in on their top pick, so the lottery ticket approach fails us there. It wasn't calculated, anyway, just a deal with the team on the clock when we felt like it was time to move up to land Spikes.

Okay – into the postseason.

Postseason Recaps

Divisional Playoff: Houston (11-6) at Buffalo (11-5) Houston's late season choke gave us the bye and the home field here in the 3/2 matchup. Houston rolls off to a 13-0 lead, and the scent of one and done is about. But we rally to a halftime tie, and double that in the third quarter, heading to a 26-13 lead. Once we got them throwing, we had it made with 3 picks and two fumbles off sacks.

Conference Championship: Denver (11-7) at Buffalo (12-5) Nice to see the wild card survivor knock off the #1 seed for us. We seemingly overmatch the Broncos, but then again so did the Ravens. This one is back and forth in the first half, but Denver gets the edge by 7 at the half. We stay close, but our last two possessions end with turnovers, and the underdog Broncos pull off their second road upset to get the win, 34-20.


Nothing to cry about, one bad game ends a season about where is was supposed to end. We have a very good young core at QB-WR-WR, and enough around them that seems to be sustainable. I'd make us the shortest odds in the future book to win it all next season.

Rookie WR Korey Spikes earns first team all-pro honors, but is slighted for the OROY award by some 1200-yard running back from Cleveland. Just silliness.

I don't venture to the Dynasty forum much these days, but I saw your post and decided to have a read. Interesting as always. Glad to see the AP system is working out for you.

I'm really enjoying it and have a question, partially answered by the last post, but it seems that there are some options you're repeated choosing to spend money on, like doing your own gameplans, and other options you've yet to even consider doing. Is this a function of mispriced choices or the fact that your team has been bad?

Thanks for the comments.

As far as the AP system and my year-to-year choices, I confess that where I am landing in terms of AP usage happens to coincide pretty neatly with the way I more or less play the game anyway. Playing solo, I really don't feel like messing around with rosters every week to readjust who my #2 WLB is and the like...and so I am basically okay building a team around the assumption that I'll just leave the depth charts on auto. It's a loss, but one I'm comfortable with. Using my custom gameplans, though, is pretty close to a dealbreaker for me. I considered not bothering in the early years (and probably should have used the AP elsewhere) but I'm basically convinced that smart and well-tailored gameplans are worth more to the team than, say, any one player at any position could. So, if I'm playing "all out" it would take more than 10 AP (to be used on contracts or whatnot) to lure me away from my own gameplans. Not sure if that's a sign of an imbalance, or just my own personal preference.

Also... it's been a while since I posted here, i know. I actually have made it through the next draft, but have yet to post the text summary.

I have had some time to kill here or there, but this isn't made the top of my list of things to do. To be honest, that's not a great sign.

Uh oh...the Bills have a way of turning off even the most ardent fan (or gamer!) ;)

2017 Early Offseason and Free Agency

Okay, a reset here – we have two low-consequence retirements, C Gust (concussion last year) and LB Black (bum we kept around a while). That leaves us with 30 signed players at the outset of the season.

We have another intriguing development – our staff are all out of contract. Under this AP system, I have been spending only 2 AP per season on staff... but right now I sort of wish I could develop some continuity, particularly as our team is just entering a potentially dominant phase. So – I decide that I will make a serious effort to keep my current head coach around (and spend 2 AP to do so), but I 'll just have to hope the rest of the staff might be willing to wait things out until the last stage of staff hiring, where they become free (in AP terms) to hire.

HC Morris Weeks immediately accepts my offer (his request) in week one, making me think I might have gotten him for free later on with no competition. I retain my scout, but have to replace both coordinators in order to get the zero-AP deal in the final stage of staff hiring. So it goes, so the cost will be 2 AP again for this year and the next two, we'll live.

0 – Send former 6th or 7th round pick to European league (G Goodlink)

With that taken care of, here's my AP planning for the offseason:

2 – Hire HC at request, hire other staff during last stage
0 – Use no rookie interviews
10 – Use allocation of draft picks
10 – Implement custom gameplans at start of season
0 – Implement staff-controlled depth chart for full season
3 – Set injury rate at 150
3 – Leave 20% of cap unused as of start of season
2 – 5% cap players: QB Brady, WR Cassidy
-
30 used, 20 remaining

The budget is getting a bit thinner now. So far, I have been restraining the cost of using my actual draft to under 10 AP, and I might be able to get under 25% cap space. But 20 AP total – including renegotiations – is not going to leave a lot of room to move. Starting with 30 players, I think I can sketch our way to 53 like this:

30 players signed
+3 RFA signed to 1yr requests (0 AP)
+3 more RFA (2 AP)
+1 re-sign LB Preston (2 AP)
+1 re-sign RT either Storm or Ruth (2 AP)
+2 re-sign CB Porter, Corner (2 AP)
+3 minsal veterans (0 AP)
–-
43 players heading into draft
10 draft picks
+3 free rookie free agents (0 AP)
--
56 players

With this as the gameplan, we would make no additions/improvements at all, re-sign LB Preston at all costs, and basically tread water, while adding our complement of rookies. That would cost us 8 out of 20 AP, leaving us room to do a few renegotiations along the way (typically I have found two or so a year that seem to make sense).

Basically, we have something like 4-8 AP to “play with” on top of that vanilla approach. Not ridiculous. Given our cap space situation, we might actually explore a move on an upper tier player this offseason, and try to make a major move at a position like, say, DT or OG, where we are demonstrably weak right now.

I also have a situation along the DL, with DE Harris Hughes. He has been starting for us and playing fairly well from the RDE slot, but this year he advanced to become our position chemistry leader ahead of DE Branch. This has zeroed out all our previous affinities, which seems to be a meaningful loss. I'd rather not cut Hughes, so my preference will be to find some fill-in who could wrest the top slot away from him and restore the ear of good feelings (I think we had 4 or 4 affinities along the D7 around Branch.

Anyway – off we go into free agency. I will have a look around at what is available, and decide whether to pursue a big splash player early.

2 – Sign RFA player on an unrestricted new contract (WR Beard, 3yr $3.6m)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (DE Schwarzhaupt, RB Monroe, G Kuszewski)

1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (CB Porter)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (QB Brohm – wow did the 1yr deal last season ever pay off!)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (CB Corner)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (DT Paul Soliai, new chem leader)

I decide to wait a stage or two to see where things stand with LB Preston as well as a DT I have my eye on (who might settle for minsal in later rounds, which would be sweet for cap reasons). Pittsburgh makes a move on LB Preston, so I need to get in there, and it looks like his requested offer ought to get it done for us – and won't push him to the 5% level until maybe the 4th year.

1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (LB Preston)
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (RT Storm)
1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract (LB Batten)

We get these done, but I get greedy and wait out DT Eric Randall, who would have been a solid re-signing (to start at LDT). So,I re-up with last year's afterdraft rookie, who can be a pass rushing rotation guy for us there.

1 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (DT Tubbs)
1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract (TE J.J. Reid)

That gets us to the draft with 43 players signed, and 11 rookie picks on the way.

2017 Draft and Training Camp


We trade out of our 4th and 5th round picks, to get an extra 6th and 4 future late rounders.

1 – Any other trade within current draft

We have 52 players aboard (counting my last unsigned rookie draft pick) and I'm not looking to rock the boat too much here. AP wise, we have room to spare – 13 left from this year's allocation, that's quite a bit.

4 – Sign a FA player in 2nd or 3rd year in league (WR Stonebarger – 3yrs, $3.6m)

I can't resist yet another high quality receiver here, though his availability mostly underscores the problem with the WR position in FOF (the AI just doesn't value it highly enough, this is a 50/50 rated guy with a great bar distribution, and he was **cut** after posting nearly 8.5 yards per target in his second season as a 6th round draft pick. We pick him up for three seasons dirt cheap, to be honest – and not even one other team even puts in an offer. If this guy hit free agency in a competitive multiplayer league, you'd see multiple teams ponying up max-salary offers to lock him up. Here, I get him for three years are not much more than minimum salary. Silly.


RB Spiller is in decline, we see that. This is turning into a clear pass-first team, so we ought to be okay there long term, and he remains a solid guy for now. Other losses are mostly expected – CB Bixler is disappointing, but no shock (still may be useful). Actually, I didn't foresee a -5 for TE Turner, that could spell trouble for us, as I felt like it was a stretch anyway to go for a TE that early, regardless. LB Wallace is nice to see, but I don't see how he gets onto the field to make any difference for us, much less develop any more latent potential he has.

So, no cut down to 53 needed, we're already there. A few renegotiations to tie up our remaining AP, and we are off:

4 – Sign current player to unrestricted renegotiation (S Wiggins, 5yr $18.6m)
2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (LT Bernstein, 5yr $73.4m)
2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (DE Hughes, 4yr $15.2m)

2017 Season

Season Preview and Goals
Roster Strength: 91 (3rd behind MIN, TB)
Cohesion Ratings: 72-83-84-90
Affinity Index: 41
Last Year's Results: 11-5, #2 seed, lost in Conference Finals
Predicted Results: 12-4, berth in Superbowl?
Keys to Success: Keep mistakes in check, keep run game effective, create turnovers, improve pass rush

Our opener is a key home test against NE, and we edge them out 34-31 to get a 1-0 start, behind a big 4 TD day from Brady and 180 yards rushing from Spiller. The unbeaten run stretched out to 6 games, but we aren't winning them all by open lengths. However, my 12-4 prediction is looking solid, as a 6-0 start certainly makes 12 wins look more reachable.

At New England we get an easy win, and make it to 10-0 on the season, two games ahead of the entire league, and with a +130 in points, we're earning it. 12 games in, Spiller has topped 1,000 yards on a shade better than 5 yards per carry.

The perfect season dies in Tampa, but we get through the year without too serious injury troubles. We are thinned along the OL, but at our “key” positions, we are fairly healthy (with young WR Stonebarger out with a long term injury, my “too good to be true” signing backfires, perhaps). 15-1 is good enough for the #1 seed, and we are in position at this point.


So, 9.y yards per attempt passing, and 4.8 yards per rush. Those are tough-to-defend numbers, and it shows. Our defensive numbers were strong, but it's the offense that is now the core of this team – as it should be.

Playoff recaps:

Divisional Playoff: Indianapolis (12-5) at Buffalo (15-1) – We are the clear favorites at home, and get back our starting LB Preston, much needed. We are playing at the top of our game, are healthy, and are ready. SO of course this is a blowout. We get creamed, 34-10, at the hands of the inestimable Brodie Croyle. Okay then, thank you everyone!



Seattle wins the championship, and we have a solid group of award winners:


But...no trophy to go with the plane tickets to Hawai'i. We are soon going to have some more urgent limitations at hand. Most notably among them will be the new contract for QB Brady. He's thinking about $30m a year, and that will not only cost us 3 AP a season to carry (of course) but will also really push our ability to remain well below the overall salary cap goals. Things could get pretty dicey soon, maybe two seasons from now the AP are going to eat us alive.

2018

Okay, so I might be re-intrigued by this. We extended LT Bernstein, and he will be a 5% player for the foreseeable future. Probably making three for us, unless we cap-out to avoid it (which will become a more legitimate option in the coming years, too). So, I'm trying to cash that momentum into another season fairly quickly here.

I'm not carrying many dinosaurs, so no shock that we lose nobody to retirement. We start 2018 with 35 players signed. That's fine. What's interesting is that we only have $59m in cap space – and the 25% limit is just over $48m. So, we have fairly little room to move here already, and that's before we add 18 more players to the roster. Intriguing – we may actually be facing cap casualties as soon as this year. That postseason choke last year might end up looming pretty large, if we can't bring ourselves to get a win

We have no first round draft pick this year, so our draft cost will be a shade less than it would have been. I'm plugging in my guess that we will use 90% of the cap this year, and come up with this AP plan:

2 – Hire HC at request, hire other staff during last stage
0 – Use no rookie interviews
6 – Use allocation of draft picks
10 – Implement custom gameplans at start of season
0 – Implement staff-controlled depth chart for full season
3 – Set injury rate at 150
9 – Leave 10% of cap unused as of start of season
4 – 5% cap players: T Bernstein, QB Brady
-
34 used, 16 remaining


2 – Sign RFA player on an unrestricted new contract (C Robertson, 4yrs $38m)
2 – Sign RFA player on an unrestricted new contract (DE Schwartzhaupt, 3yrs $2.9m)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (DT Tubbs, TE Reid, SS Gonzalez)
2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (CB Writer)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (LB Batten, QB Brohm, DT Soliai)
1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract (CB Corner)
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (DE Aufedenkampe)

Okay, that's 11 guys re-signed for 8 AP. Brings us to 46 players, with 10 draft picks coming. That gives us a chance to move around in the draft and perhaps do another trade-down deal. Anyway, we have a nearly legal roster in hand (short a kicker) and are on our way to another season.

And yes, I will comment here that this team seems rapidly moving toward one of my usual styles of play – just get your talent from the draft/rookies, and develop from within, mostly by re-signing my own guys and building cohesion. I did look in the open FA market, but the best fits out there within my price range didn't seem to add much value beyond what I'd get from my own guys. So, that might be where we land for a while.

2018 Draft and Training Camp

Looking at our roster situation, I think my main needs here are longer term. Without a 1st round pick, we aren't likely to add any major impact players, so we're mostly just working around the fringes. OL, WR, and LB seem like the positions where we would benefit from some rotation-level depth. But we're basically into BPA mode by now.

I am not wild about any of my options in round 2, and decide to mostly pull out of this draft, dealing down and grabbing future picks from Oakland. We are going to load up on zero-AP late round draft picks here and beyond, but in time the cap cost might make this strategy less attractive.

5 – Any trade involving future 1st round pick from another team (2+3+4+5 for OAK 6,2+6+7 plus swap of 1sts)


Adding role players here, that's fine. So, we had planned to use about 6AP in the draft, instead we use 5AP to trade out of most of it, and still add six rookie players. (I'm sensing a too-available end-around here, incidentally... note posted to this effect here)

We have 52 players signed, and 9 AP left for use this year. That gives us some freedom to splash in the rookie market – but the biggest thing we have sitting out there is the contract for QB Brady. If we intend to keep him, then it likely has to be a full-range renegotiation, and that will take 4 AP right there. We have a fleet of other veterans on the last year of their deals, too, but none measures up to Brady in overall value (10th year S Byrd will get cheaper this year if we just give him his request). So, if I set aside 6 Ap for those two renegs, then we could use 3 AP in late free agency if something seemed valuable, like a good 2nd or 3rd year player. Otherwise, I can just extend one more guy like S Dana Kirk or CB Borders.

We also have $34 in cap space left, suggesting that we are going to do better than I had guessed there, and will leave 15% of the cap unused. That's another 3 AP to play with – so maybe Kirk AND Borders can get locked up. Of course, making guarantees into future years when QB Brady might be set to explode from $12m to $30 or more is a dicey proposition. We will at least wait until after training camp to work on any renegs.

0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (RB Jason Nichols)

I flirt with the idea of spending some AP here on a linebacker, hoping to fill my MLB role for next year and beyond, but blanch at the high AP cost to sign a recently released player. (Not sure that the high cost there is justified – it seemingly just makes any move on such a player untenable, as I see it – and I don't really recall what horrible evil I was worried about when I created the high AP cost, likely the unrealistic “sit and wait for some dumbassed AI team to require a blowup” approach)

Anyhow, that's our 53, and we're ready to go.


Nothing too much to see here. Older guys declining and dying on the vine (QB George). WR Poling had bars way too good to be true, but still seems pretty useful even after the -7. RB RB Spiller is probably going to be a minsal type by next season, even if we get a solid run from him again this year.

Anyway...nothing here that changes plans. Same system, same cast of characters, and same aspirations. Clock is ticking, we ought to go out and get a ring.

I decide to work out renegotiations first, before plunging in too deeply. Wow. I have an offer in to QB Brady, of 6yrs, $186, – with $54m guaranteed. His response... it's “close.” This is the BIG pivot here, obviously. $31m a year (or whatever more it will take) clearly defines this franchise, under these rules. If we don't lock him up now, the likely direction is something like perma-tag (until he hols out), or else tag-and-trade. Financially, that makes sense... and at the end of next season we'd have flexibility to sign long term, if we wanted to. The tag number for QB this year is less than $17m... that's a lot cheaper than the $31m we'd be committing to for multiple years of happiness. I decide to back off, at lest for right now.

2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (S Byrd)
2 – Sign current player to his requested renegotiation (S Kirk)

I'll sit back on my 8 remaining AP, and will reserve my options. Maybe Brady can play himself wealthy this season.

2018 Season

Season Preview and Goals
Roster Strength: 85 (2nd behind SD)
Cohesion Ratings: 77-85-96-100(91)
Affinity Index: 43
Last Year's Results: 15-1, #1 seed, lost in Divisional Round
Predicted Results: 13-3, bye week
Keys to Success: Motivation, avoid injuries, let our talent do the talking

Seriously, we ought to be a power team again this year, no reason to expect any fall-off, everything is on the upswing here. I am a bit intimidated by the big roster rating in San Diego, but overall we have a championship caliber team and I know it.


So, in week 3 we get to face the big roster in San Diego... and they beat us, 24-17, handing us our first loss (behind Philip Rivers and Ryan Mathews, for anyone curious). We are not exactly paving through the league, but a 6-2 mark at the halfway point is good enough to have us in the running, along with SD and BAL, for byes. Our rushing game has dropped off a lot, it seems – Spiller is averaging only 4.4 ypc, and we're barely over 4.0 as a team.

Two more losses and we are 9-4. Nothing wrong with 9-4, but now we need help to get a bye week, and don't even have the division locked up. We lose at the Jets, and suddenly the season is in panic, as we now trail them for the division. We finish out at 11-5, and so do the Jets... the head-to-head is split, so we end up on tiebreakers. We end up taking the wild card spot, and end up[ starting our playoff quest in a disappointing posture – on the road in the damned “play in” games. Ugh.


Well, it's some consolation that we are +127 in points (compared to our division champion Jets who are -16, ouch). But not much. We should have parlayed that level of dominance into a few more wins, and we'd be sitting and waiting this week. Awful result, but at least we are fairly healthy for the postseason, except at OG where we are terribly thin due to two injuries.


Wild Card Round: Buffalo (11-5) at Tennessee (8-8) – So, we seem like the far better team, but it's a road playoff game, hard to say what to expect. Brady shreds the Titals for 300 and 4TD, in an easy win, 37-14. Nice, we at least make it to the divisionals again.

Divisional Playoff: Buffalo (12-5) at San Diego (12-4) – They bat us once already, they have the top roster, and they are at home. I figure we have a shot, but it's hard to like us too much – the game favors SD by only 2, at least. On paper, this game was supposed to happen next week, not here. Oh, well. We end up marching for TDs on our first three possessions – it's not a blowout, but that foundation proved strong enough to hold up for a 31-17 win.

Conference Championship: Buffalo (13-5) at Baltimore (13-4) – Baltimore is a beefy, tough team, and are favored – but only by 2 at home. This game starts out differently – a field position struggle, resulting in a 6-3 edge for us at the half. Late in the 3rd, with back-and-forth still the order of the day, the Ravens get a punt return TD to break out ahead 10-6. After we lose QB Brady to a hip injury, we punt three more times (!) and then the Ravens get a long TD pass on a short pass play from Flacco to Moreno, and we are in deep. The usual late-game floundering fails, and we end up falling apart late, to lose 27-6.


So it goes. I decide to carry 6 extra AP into next season, where we will tag QB Brady and see where we can go with that.

Baltimore beats Seattle for the league championship, and the award winners list again has a couple of still ring-less Bills on it.


Not much to say. We are a very good team, but we don't have forever to throw this much key talent onto the field, and our chances to come away with the big one are winding down, perhaps.

Oh, and our roll-the-dice move didn't really pan out. Oakland went 8-8, so our #1 pick won't be a superstar, but more likely just a fill-in for a departing talent somewhere.

A couple AP rule tweaks likely forthcoming. Details and thinking posted here.

Just checking in... I don't think I've been around for about 3 years... but good to know I can pop back on and see a QS Dynasty first thing.. :)

Heh. I have mostly gotten out of this racket, to be honest... but glad to see you 'round again.

2019

So, LB Danny Batten retires. Not a great loss, but he had an outside shot of moving in to start at MLB this year. Anyway, LB will be a relative need position this year anyway.

But here we are at a major and obvious crossroads – what to do about QB Brady. Overall, we have 31 players signed and 91m of the 200m cap available to use – so that sort of sets the stage for where we need to go. If we tag Brady at $18m, we buy time to decide what to do and give ourselves at least this year to decide what to do. But tagging him costs us at least 4 AP (2 to use the tag and 2 more to have him at over 5% of the cap) – not a zero consideration, even though we have 56 AP to work with this year, for a bit of cushion.

My overall AP plan looks like this:

2 – Hire HC at request, hire other staff during last stage
0 – Use no rookie interviews
8 – Use allocation of draft picks
10 – Implement custom gameplans at start of season
0 – Implement staff-controlled depth chart for full season
3 – Set injury rate at 150
3 – Leave 20% of cap unused as of start of season
4 – 5% cap players: T Bernstein, QB Brady (seems likely)
–
30 AP used, 26 remaining

We happen to have three key players who are in walk years as well – WR Cassidy and Spikes, and DE McKinney. All three are looking for deals worth around $15m a year or more, much more than they are making now. So, we will have a tough call with renegotiations in any event, regardless of how many AP we have for them in theory – tying up monstrous cash in a few players is looking like a desperate option, though possibly our best available.


0 – Send former 6th or 7th round pick to European league (WR LaChapelle)

I decide against using the tag on Brady, and I will try to retain him on the open market, hoping that I can come up with a bonus-heavy deal for just under the 10% level that gets him to re-up with us, coupled with his 80 loyalty rating. It's risky, but I think if it works, it's the best overall ticket for us by far.

1 – Sign RFA player to his requested multi year contract (G Mike Goodlink, 3yr 7.8m)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (DT Tubbs, P Ross, S Gilmore)

Okay, Brady is looking for 6yrs, $216m – even more than he wanted in his renegotiation last year. My working theory was to load up the bonus, but the problem with that approach is that we might not be able to get him to even consider a deal for <20 a year under any circumstances. Indeed, 3 years $60m doesn't even register with this guy, even if it's all guaranteed but the minsal each season. Ouch.

1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract (RB Nichols)
1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract (re-sign DT Soliai, 1yr 1.5m)
1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract (QB George, 1yr 1.1m)
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (re-sign MLB Boles, 2yr 4.7m)
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (re-sign G Wood, 1yr 2.6m)
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (re-sign DT Aufdenkampe, 1yr 1.3m)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (QB Brohm)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (FB Tolbert)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (LB Corner)
2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (CB Borders)

So, if all these go through, we will have moved to 45 players signed, with 10 draft picks ahead. And still no real decision on either the QB or RB position, to be fair.

I decide to sit out one stage on QB Brady and see what happens – if he has no interest at his mammoth request, then I get to pick my spot. If I have to beat out other teams, it's time to consider what we really have to do here.

Okay – stage 1, no bids for Brady at all. Great sign. RB Bundren wanted pretty big money, he gets it immediately in Carolina, while Spiller still sits with no takers (for a 10th year back asking for $6m a year, I can understand why not).

In stage 6, I am thinking about approaching Brady – when Miami does ahead of us. Oh, now it's on. We will assume, as always, that the MIA offer is just a give-or-take adjustment away from his request, meaning they must be very serious with the money. Having him stay in the division would be doubly worrisome. I conjure up a 6yr deal worth 149m with a massive 84m guaranteed (basically my limit) but he shrugs that off as well. I push it to 6/164(G84) and still no dice. Now I will have to push the money past the 10% mark, to no real surprise, if I want to even be in the running here. By doing so, I think I can scale back on the guarantee a bit, at least. 6/175(G60) seems reasonable – but he's still not even accepting the paperwork on that. My eventual offer becomes 6yrs, $199m, with 75m guaranteed. Cap hit would be at 19.5m for each of the first two years, then three years at 32.5, then a final unaffordable year that would be waived by 2,000 yards passing. Wow, this is massive – I can hardly believe I still want this to win the day.

4 – Offer FA player an unrestricted contract (QB Brady)

As I await word from Brady, we see unexpected news – Carolina has now signed RB Spiller, on top of Bundren, reuniting that pairing in their backfield. For now, our top option appears to be RB Jason Nichols, an undrafted rookie last year rated 36/44 by my scout and loaded with elusiveness.

We get to week 9, and Brady still hasn't made up his mind. I am thinking about spending the extra AP to up my bid here – it would suck to spend this much effort and still lose out. But in week 10, it's over – Van Brady accepts our offer, and will remain in Buffalo, presumably for the balance of his career. There we go.

I decided not to pursue any real open free agents, but now have the luxury of looking around at my options there. We have used 13 AP, so we could theoretically burn a few more here within reason. As we sit, we have 46 players on contract (one WR will hit IR), and are short only at TE and OL from being fully legal for play. I don't see anything too appetizing in the open market at this stage, so I sit it out, and figure we will look again post-draft.

Right now, I think the plan is basically to build around QB Brady and WR Spikes as the centerpiece of the offense, and to try to secure a long term deal with DE McKinney. That may mean doing free-form renegs with the other two guys at the end of this season, but I think that's the core I'm looking to build around.

2019 Draft and Training Camp

With a mid-first and two 2nds, we have a chance here to make some meaningful roster gains, before I reach my usual “fuck it” stage and start dealing out of the draft altogether. OL is a need area – guard is a good spot to be looking for in round two, often. LB is another, and if a RB floats my boat, there's surely a chance to step right in and play here for a guy with much of any talent.


I pass up some tempting DL prospects to take a LB, but Halton looks like he may be a lock-down cover LB (PSPec of 44 and a maxed-out zone bar are great signs) and that's a position where we could use a new face, I think.

Early in round 2, I make a deal with Minnesota, to get to their pick at 2.2 (up from the late 2nd), sending them our 3+4+5 this year for that, plus a flip of 1sts nest season. Same deal I have gotten used to pulling. The trade-up it so land DT Marchion, a guy I looked at closely in the mid-first. Marchion is 300 lbs, but might be able to move out to DE, and he immediately becomes a factor in our decision on re-upping with McKinney at LDE.

5 – Any trade involving future 1st round pick from another team (Move up to 2.2, swap 2020 1sts with MIN)

So, I was eyeing a deep threat WR in round 2, but he goes to Miami just ahead of us, and we settle for a very nice-looking CB instead. I like our fill-in guys in the late rounds, overall, too. Happy with the draft, especially if DT Marchion works out to be a long term asset. Can't wait for the other guys to Meet Danny Wilson, of course.

Anyhow, once these 7 are signed, that gets us to a nice, comfy, and legal 53 (plus one guy on IR). We are close to 25% under the cap before our top two picks sign, so the 20% level (my target) will be quite easy. And what might gum up the works? How about holdouts from BOTH receivers? Nice!

Well, my basic plan was to extend with Spikes and let Cassidy walk anyhow – this might just serve to move that plan along even further. Spikes wants 5/88(B23) – I'm thinking my main goal is to keep him from becoming a perennial 5% player, if there's any way to do that. Massive bonus is basically the angle there. I try out 5/45(B35) but it's still too short. It ends up being 5/62(45B) with the first 4 years minsal and the last easily voidable. That's a marriage right there, both he and Brady are now basically tattooing that Bills jersey on.

4 – Sign current player to unrestricted renegotiation (WR Spikes)
2 – Each player on roster for week 1 occupying 5-10% of cap (add WR Spikes)

That puts a dent into our AP plan, too. We are now down to zero AP remaining for this season. The main guy we will leave unprotected out there now will be DE McKinney, rated 77 and coming off a 10-sack season at the LDE position. My hope is we can retain him on the open market next season, but it will surely be expensive, though maybe not as much as as the $20m a year he now is asking for to re-up. Anyway, we will see McKinney and WR Cassidy hitting the open market next offseason. No way to worry about that now, nor do I have the luxury or sweating Cassidy's situation. He presumably will give up the holdout and come back, but that likely poisons the waters for a return next season in any case.

I have no AP available to carry extra guys into training camp, so we're done here. Ready to see how they progress in camp.


Okay then. The late-round RB lost some of their big bars, but both still look like useful role players – Acuna at 41/48 projects as our starter, actually, and has a nice 91 bar in breakaway speed that could help him make some plays for us. None of the losses look really serious across anyone we were counting on.

On the good side – CB Francis was expected to creep, but we'll take a leap instead. Looking like a future stud to me, now, even though he's only rated 27/42 after the jump. Big issue will be getting him on the field with the AI depth charting at work. Starter Leroy Banta likely departs after this season, and the top CB job likely falls to Francis then if we can arrange the roster correctly to make that happen.

Big and good news for Marchion, too. He will start right away at DT, and at the end of the year I think we might just move him to LDE (or at least check it out). Nice to see C Maxwell paying off, too, though behind a star he won't get much time to develop I fear.

And, WR Cassidy is already back from his short-lived holdout. He does have the “past injustices” situation going, though – so his stay here won't be long-lived, it appears. Might bemy first need to use the tag in this career yet.

2019 Season

Season Preview and Goals
Roster Strength: 100 (tied with STL and MIA)
Cohesion Ratings: 86-98-95-100(99)
Affinity Index: 46
Last Year's Results: 11-5, #5 seed, lost in Conf Champ
Predicted Results: 13-3, bye week
Keys to Success: Passing game ought to drive everything, running game just not be terrible; on D need to create turnovers and rush passer well

This is pretty clearly the “go for it” year for us. We may have been the league's best team the last two years – this year we probably are again. Need to capitalize, and get the ring here, I think. Tough to shoot for anything less than that. Division looks tougher (Miami?) but we need to take care of business big picture.


A 3-0 start is encouraging, and we look pretty tight. Acuna has 262 yards in 3 games, on 4.44 ypc, not too bad. At 4-0 we host 4-0 Miami, in what clearly shapes up as a big game – and we trash them, 41-16, to serve notice. Nice.

The Jets trip us up in mideason, but 7-1 is still two games ahead of them and the Dolphins. At 11-1, we are in fine shape for a top seed, and coasting through the late season. DE Brenden McKinney can apparently smell the cold hard cash, and he is playing lights out with 17 sacks with 4 games yet to play. We play out the season without error, and reach the end of the regular season with just the one misstep, looking every bit the power team of destiny.


You know, I'm aware there are people who get a ton out of their stud running backs, and really make it a point to have a monster guy back there. I guess that just isn't me. Yeah, having my backs go under 4 yards a carry is weak, but this offense seems to be doing okay with them, to me.

Big years from both top receivers, and Brady – they could all three make first team all-pro, which would be weird. 3100 yards and 31 TD for two teammate wideouts is off the charts, clearly. DE McKinney also posted a season for the ages, as well, and that 29.2 PR% is a nice number, tough to do a whole lot better. We created 41 turnovers – not sure exactly how, but that certainly makes a big difference also.

Okay, we got our bye, and managed to avoid terrible injury (S Byrd and our backup TE are our OUTs for the opener). For the regular season, that's basically all you can do. Now to the proving grounds.

Divisional Playoff: San Diego (10-7) at Buffalo (15-1): Total mismatch here, of course. We're favored by 9 in-game, and I think I'd give the points. A comfortable 17-3 lead in the second quarter pretty much puts this one onto cruise control. It's down to 20-10 late in the 4th, then they score a TD. Uhhhhhh. And then they drive again in the waning minutes, and kick a tying FG in the final minute. Then we head into overtime, and Philip Rivers hits some clown for the winning score, and just like that it's over, 26-20. Stunned.

And so it goes.


DT Marchion is my late-season dilemma. Scout says he'd move to LDE at 97%, which seems to be pretty smooth. But I really, really would like to have McKinney come back and create more havoc for us next year, and if so, I'd want Marchion back at DT, I think. Now would be the time to make the move, though – rookies are always less trouble in this way. I decide to make the switch, but we will still hope for the best with McKinney, of course. My scout rates Marchion at 41/70 at LDE now, by the way.

San Diego, it turns out, nearly wins it all, losing to the Rams in a close Super Bowl. The seaosn awards are peppered with Bills, no surprise:


So, yeah. Fuck.

2020

So, we have made our major decisions with big contracts. Pay QB Brady, pay WR Spikes, and see where the rest falls. This is not absurd. But we ought to have some genuine difficulties with this team now that we have made those commitments of cash.

We suffer two retirements, FB Mike Tolbert and CB Reggie Corner. Tolbert was a position leader, and Corner was just hanging around as a cohesion guy, I guess. Both are very replaceable.

Anyway, we have 30 players on board right now, and just shy of $80m of the $208m cap. I think this year we will shoot to stay 15% under, so we need to keep $30m or so unused. We have some room, but not a ton. Our draft should cost us $15m, but that's before we go off and dump the middle rounders again.


Here's my first draft of the AP plan:

2 – Hire HC at request, hire other staff during last stage
0 – Use no rookie interviews
10 – Use allocation of draft picks
10 – Implement custom gameplans at start of season
0 – Implement staff-controlled depth chart for full season
3 – Set injury rate at 150
3 – Leave 20% of cap unused as of start of season
4 – 5% cap players: T Bernstein, QB Brady
–
32 AP used, 18 remaining

IF we can stay at 20% under the cap, this is workable. If we bump down to 15% below the cap, that eats 3 more AP, and will be a squeeze. I budget 10 AP for the draft, as we have the Minnesota pick which turned out to be 1.6 – not too bad.


Starting from 30 players signed right now, here's my path to get toward 53:

30 signed
+3 free RFA re-signings
+3 free old guys
+3 free undrafted rookies
+8 draft picks built into the forecast
--
47 players without spending any AP

So, assuming I want to renegotiate a couple guys this season, that means we have maybe 10-14 AP to use to secure another 6 players. Not that bad, overall. Most will likely be my own guys, who might just re-up at their requests (especially if loyalty helps) for 1 AP each, and then we can spend our remaining AP on the target guys – maybe a wide open contract for DE McKinney would be the best long-term way to go there. Or maybe we tag WR Cassidy for $12m and keep him around another season (I'm warming to this idea).


Anyway, we get the show on the road. Staff hiring is no event, we re-up with our head coach at his initial request, and then settle for dregs in the final stage – which turns out to be my same old scrubs nobody else wanted.

2 – Use franchise tag on any other player (WR Cassidy)
0 – Send former 6th or 7th round pick to European league (LB Martin)

2 – Sign RFA player on an unrestricted new contract (CB Bixler 3/3.9)
0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (G Huffman, QB Allen, LB Wallace)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (DT Soliai, QB Brohm, new affinity leader CB Harper)

I decide to really pursue DE McKinney, and I go with a 2-point offer (meaning flat) and a lot of bonus to keep it below the 3AP/yr level.

2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (re-sign DE McKinney, 4/80)
2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (re-sign WR beard, 3/4.84)
2 – Offer FA player a flat contract with at least 25% bonus (re-sign WR Floyd, 3/4.80)
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (re-sign LG Wood, 1/2.6)
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (re-sign DT Aufdenkampe, 1/1.4)
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (re-sign DT Tubbs, 1/1.2)

So, that's an effort to land 8 players with 13 AP – not exactly the most efficient way to do it all, but if we lock up a few guys for 3 years on 2 AP deals, it saves us compared to the 1/yr that re-signing many players requires. The big question, of course, is McKinney.

In 1:2, McKinney has offers from just two teams, SF is the top bidder with $96m over the same 4 years as our 80. I'm sure we are way ahead in bonus, and he has a 72 loyalty, so I like our chances. In week 5, he re-signs.

So, we get to 44 players as we hit the draft. We need a punter, but are otherwise legal. Overall, I'd say our top needs are probably OL (need a possible G starter, and depth everywhere), DL (need depth and maybe a soon-starter), FB (we have none right now) and LB.

2020 draft and training camp

It costs 2 AP to move down out of the top ten, but I have a lot of guys I like a lot at pick 1.6 – two OL who look like studs, a future monster MLB, and a star safety who's small enough to shift to play corner if needed. Anyway, I move down to pick 10 with the Giants, swap next year's 1sts to do so, and trade out of my picks in rounds 4 and 5 this year in the process to get 6th and 7th rounders next year. Not a huge ransom, but it works out okay in AP terms (for now).

5 – Any trade involving future 1st round pick from another team (1.6 to 1.10 plus)


The guy I really coveted at pick 1.6 (the safety) went at 9, so we end up with a solid set of choices, but not quite as exciting as him. I go for a LB who looks like he might evolve into a 120 tackle guy, even on a good team. I am at a loss for a guy I really like in round 2, so I deal out of the early draft altogether to pick up (hopefully) an early 2 next season. Nothing exciting in the later round picks, I doubt we have any creeper types, just role players and affinity scrubs (though looking later, I see that **both** of my rookie affinity scrubs at TE are so low in personality as to not even register there...nice).

2 – Any other trade involving draft picks in future years (trade 2nd and 3rd here for future 2+6+7+6+7)

But – I had been planning on using 10 AP in the draft, and that dropped to 4+2, so that's some savings.

I assume tagged WR Cassidy will hold out – but I'm surprised, it's not him. It's S Jairus Byrd. Heh. He's a 12th year player and wants to lock in $8m per year with a new deal for this year and next. That costs me 2 AP, and it only gets me on more year out of him. While he likely declines anyhow. Tough call. Makes me wish even more that I had stayed at pick 1.6 and taken the all-world safety.

0 – Sign a FA rookie player to 1yr contract (S McCombs, CB Tirado, T Lyle)

As things sit now, before camp (and with my top draft pick unsigned), we have just over $25m in cap space left. That's not even 15%, just 10% – so I'll occupy another 6 AP with that (beyond my plan) unless I can work that number up to a bit over $31m. Unlikely. So, I'll do a full revised AP accounting:

2 – Hire HC at request, hire other staff during last stage
0 – Use no rookie interviews
4 – Use allocation of draft picks
10 – Implement custom gameplans at start of season
0 – Implement staff-controlled depth chart for full season
3 – Set injury rate at 150
9 – Leave 10% of cap unused as of start of season
8 – 5% cap players: T Bernstein, QB Brady, DE McKinney, WR Cassidy
13 – used for free agent moves
–
49 AP used

We are done, in short. Even if I cut S Byrd due to his holdout and cleared off his $4.5m base salary, we'd still be way short of moving the AP needle. We do have to make one cut prior to camp, unless we want to use that last AP to carry a 54th player, which seems awfully dumb. We can afford to grab one more player in late free agency, or else to sign a rookie to replace a player hitting IR – that's all we can do with our last AP. We have several guys who will hit open free agency next year, probably the most critical is RT Tracy Turnbull, who would have inked for three more years at about $4m per, but may cost us more next offseason. I cut MLB David Prior (in year 3, no chance of earning a year 4) and keep the AP in my pocket for a fill-in if we need it.

We head into another vanilla training camp:


So, big hit on DE Hughes, probably meaning that my move of Marchion to DE was correct – he'll likely move in to start across from McKinney (probably the right move anyhow). Nothing too big to see on the good side – LB Ozga went +1, a bit less than I had hoped for, but at least it's the right direction. His bars plus the measly +1 make him look like a pretty weak pick for #10 overall, though...we'll see.

Jairus Byrd also ends his quick holdout – meaning this is likely his last season with us, but also meaning that he will at least suit up and play.

2020 Season


Okay, we have cast our big money lot with three long term guys and one short term – and they are all still here to play, probably for this one last year (Cassidy will get too expensive and risky very soon, I figure). So, after three missed chances, this ought to be it.

Season Preview and Goals
Roster Strength: 78 (t4th behind NO, NE, IND)
Cohesion Ratings: 93-89-98-100(92)
Affinity Index: 42
Last Year's Results: 15-1, #1 seed, one and out in playoffs
Predicted Results: 12-4, bye week
Keys to Success: Play to our potential in general

Nice twist from preseason – we will get to play 3 or 4 games without QB Brady, with Dustin Allen getting the call. (that make Allen tough to re-sign next year also, by the way)

Allen is shaky in our opener, but we win in New England, a big start. We get to 3-0, and Allen is feeling fine with a 105 rating. We do lose one game with Brady in the saddle, but get to the midpoint looking sharp at 7-1, and WR Spikes threatening 1,000 yards already.

Brady gets dinged a week later, and will miss another month. But we keep chugging along with Allen, who will now sport a career W/L record of 7-0-0, not bad. In week 16, Brady is down again – and we have to be worried not just for this season (he's definitely out for the playoffs) but beyond. We have a **lot** of cash tied up in that guy to have him pulling hammies every couple of weeks. Anyhow, Allen is our guy now. Would be awfully weird to see this team finally get it done with a stand-in taking the snaps.


So, we once again look like a power team on the surface. Things I don't like a ton underneath the surface, I'll admit – we didn't get a huge pass rush this year, and our running game is not really an asset at all. We clearly don't give a damn about stopping the run, and that has its downside, too.

But on the upside. Our pass attack is seemingly unstoppable, as is Spikes in particular – 2,000 yards receiving on a non-gadget team (with a backup QB mostly) is pretty damned impressive. I think there's a case to just keep tagging WR Cassidy – hard to argue that we ought to break this group up, in any way. And that's really the big story here.

Anyhow – we're in. But this time, we are very banged up.


Divisional Playoff: Cleveland (9-8) at Buffalo (15-1) – We have three key absences in QB Brady, TE Turner, and S Byrd, but we still figure to dominate this game. Yes, I say that knowing we don't have a great track record of this situation. Anyway, we execute perfectly – Allen has 5 TD passes in the first half, and we cruise to a 38-13 win, even despite a terrible second half effort.

Conference Championship: Indianapolis (14-3) at Buffalo (16-1) – This is the real test. Stud rookie QB and a very good defense make the Colts a very tough out. We get out to a good start with a score early, and hold that edge all through the first half, driving for a FG to lead 17-0 at the break. The D is strong, the passing game solid, and we have this one well in hand throughout, winning 27-8 in the end, with three receivers approaching 100 yards on the day while we only had 440 total yards teamwide.

Superbowl: Buffalo (17-1) vs San Francisco (16-2) – Chris Berman is probably loving this! The top seeds get to battle it out, as it ought to be. Glad we finally live up to the hype, at least this far. S Byrd will be back in action, but our injury list remains long and intimidating. WR Cassidy is hurt but will play. Cassidy has been a hot knife through these playoffs, and keep sit up with a TD on the opening drive. An Allen pick sets up SF for a short TD drive to tie in the early 2nd, and we blow a gift of our own with another pick deep in SF territory as the half winds up tied at 7. We finally overcome our penalties (two big pass plays called back already) to get Cassidy in again for a 14-7 lead in the late 3rd. Our D is playing well enough, that might be all we need – but you can't be comfy at all. But another stop followed by a 33-yard TD to Spikes, and now we are feeling it. With 5 minutes left, SF is driving – but S Calvin Wiggins comes up with a pick and a 40+ yard return to midfield. Big play in the big game, son. SF drives for a late TD, but it's at about 12 seconds on the clock, so they need two gifts to get back even. We cover the onside kick, and that's all she wrote. Wow. Buffalo 21, San Francisco 14

Interesting twist in the in-game awards... the MVP of the Superbowl is awarded to... Center Luke Robertson. Allen's 2 picks must have cost him the honors, and somehow WR Cassidy's 117/2 wasn't enough, either. Nope, history will record Luke Robertson and his 6-of-10 “key run blocks” (zero pancakes) as the main element in the game, it seems – even as the team posted only 6 rushing first downs, on lower than 3.5 yards per carry. Okay, then, we're fine with that I suppose.


Well, I guess that was the point of all this. Good on ya, men.