FOFC GroupThink 2023: We take over the Detroit Lions
 

Fresh off our GRAND SUCCESS last year:

FOFC GroupThink 2022: We take over the NY Football Giants

...we now set our sights on a goal, to, ahem, Restore (?) the Roar.

The Lions have some fascinating pieces to build around, two first round draft picks, and a number of pretty interesting front office decisions ahead of them this spring.

Let's get decked out in our Honolulu_Blue (whatever punctuation you use there) and figure this thing out, shall we?

Lessee if we can pull together a nice PFF snapshot:

And the Defense:

OTC Salary Cap Analysis: Detroit Lions Salary Cap | Over the Cap

...and their cap space thingie for all teams: NFL Salary Cap Space | Over The Cap

A view from the inside via hockey boy:

Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - NFL 2023 Offseason/Free Agency/Draft Thread

My quick take is: the underbrush housecleaning that seems easy enough to do would be to release DL Brockers and RG Vaitai for about 16.5m in cap relief, and then maybe WR Reynolds for another 3m or so. Could entertain any among them as a re-sign but current contracts don't make sense.

$2m freed up by releasing a meh FB Cabinda makes sense, too. But I bet they love his toughness or something.

#KeepGoff

I think that the Lions are in a good position with him. Some pocket change roster bonuses ($5 million this year and next year) and a $30 million annual cap hit this season and in 2024. That is very doable. And it gives the team two more full seasons to make a decision on him. The best thing they can do with him is nothing.

I would avoid the temptation of extending him to reduce his cap hit. If it turns out that last season was fool's gold, you don't want to be locked into it though 2026.

I also think that you have to consider that this is the Lions. You CANNOT ask this fanbase to have the patience for another rebuild with a rookie QB. This team has momentum after last season, and you can't just throw that away.

And Dan Campbell's is part of this, too. Who is a better QB for the knee biter than the guy who's first team was so sick of him that they traded assets to get rid of him? There's a synergy to the cast-off QB leading the Lions to the playoffs. And normally, I think that that kind of momentum/synergy stuff is overrated. But if there's one coach who makes me believe that it matters--it's Dan Campbell.

So maybe Goff isn't taking you to a Super Bowl. But there's no way I'd cast him off to draft a rookie.

Maybe grab a guy in the 4th round to groom.

The Lions ended last year with a winning record.

I think it's best that we quit while we're ahead.

I 100% agree with Brockers and Vaitai. Brockers was benched halfway through the season and Vaitai was injured all last year.

Josh Reynolds is trickier. He was signed mid-way through the 2021 season and really solidified the recover position. He played with Goff in L.A. and they have a good report. With Chark’s UFA status, I think we keep Reynolds.

I need to deep dive a bit more on others. I think Romeo Okwara could be a candidate to be cut. He came back from a torn Achilles last year and just wasn’t the same…

If the Lions commit to Goff, then a trade that seems to work according to the random draft calculator I just found is giving #6 and #184 (Denver 6th rounder) to the Panthers for #9 and #62 (San Fran 2nd rounder)

That lets Carolina jump up to grab a QB if one falls and gets the Lions a 2nd round pick while remaining in the top 10.

I'd jump on that in a heartbeat.

dola: A similar trade with the Falcons at #8 is also possible, depending on if they are really serious about rolling with Ridder.

I think #6 in this draft is begging to trade down with someone experiencing one of those four-hour hardons. There's a nice tier of players starting somewhere around 4-5 and descending until the teens or twenties. I hate drafting at the top of a tier.

it was really fun to follow DET last season. keeping Goff is a priority and no-brainer in my opinion -- not that i think that DET is even considering another option. it's difficult to get a qb of his level and swapping guys in real life is generally not a good recipe for long-term success. goff is good enough to bring DET to the playoffs and perhaps to a deep playoff run. surround him with talent and play to his strengths. don't over think and self implode like TEN with tannehill and aj brown.

Totally agree. A defensive lineman (or edge) or cornerback seem to be the biggest area of need and after Carter and Anderson there’s a bit of a cliff, so assuming those two will be gone by 6 (which will almost certainly be the case) trading down is our best option here. There seems to be three top tier consensus cornerbacks in Witherspoon, Gonzales and Porter Jr and along the d-line it appears to be some combination of Myles Murphy, Tyree Wilson, Brian Breese, or Lukas Van Ness.

There's still a hole at linebacker for the Lions IMO. Malcolm Rodriguez played above expectations in a bit of a spotlight last year, which was good to see, but that's about the end of the good things you can muster about any of the inside linebacker play. Alex Anzalone is the big Q for Lions at LB, he's a free agent & played about as well as he ever has for the Lions last year and has effectively been acting as the heart of that defense since Campbell's arrival, but it seems like his ceiling on the field is still 'decent'. Do you risk upsetting the chemistry of the (bottom tier) defense to let him walk and chase upgraded talent through either the draft or FA, or do you pay a premium for his leadership and consistency?

Anzalone suffered through shoulder injuries with the Saints--not great for a stack linebacker. He's a fine player when healthy, but you can't bank on that. And I get that chemistry means more to a Dan Campbell team than most. But you can't make every decision based on that.

I'd make him a fair offer, but if another team wants to overpay, I would not match it.

Robert Woods is hitting the market. Could be a good low cost add unless he threw Goff under the bus while I wasn’t paying attention.

I like the thinking. Sinking major resources into off-ball LB is folly. Just too few difference maker guys out there. If you find Fred Warner, great, keep him. But most guys are just guys, Anzalone included.

Seconding the motion of "make him a reasonable offer, but don't overdo it."

What do we imagine the WR room to look like as we break camp?

WR1 Amon-Ra St. Brown is the build-around guy for the whole offense, sold.

WR2 Jameson Williams is the "ceiling" guy who's still seemingly close to rookie status, unknown but you'd hope that he develops into at least a serious downfield threat this season, maybe/hopefully more.

WR4 is Kalif Raymond, your sparkplug super speed tiny size guy with limitations but he's effective at the things he can do. Not a candidate for 40 snaps a game, I think, but he can give you 20 good snaps.

...and WR3 Josh Reynolds is solid at multiple things, not spectacular at any among them, but comfortable with Goff and seems like a good fit. I list him below Raymond here as I think his hold for a roster slot seems less secure, but if he stays his usage should be more central.


Last year a one year deal with DJ Chark suggested he could be the downfield threat on a use-every-so-often basis, but this offense or Goff doesn't seem to have the nerve to really Minshew the ball his way as much as I might like. I can't see him getting $10m again, and I guess I can't see him coming back... but we can sort out whether we feel he's a target to retain.

WR5/6 Quintez Cephus is, I suppose, what you get from a technically sound player who just doesn't have NFL grade physical tools. He runs patterns and does the job, but he lacks speed/quickness to separate, so it feels like everything is a contested catch for this guy. Low ceiling, as much as I like him.


If the default play here is to keep everyone listed above including Reynolds, not re-sign Chark, pray that Williams is ready to step up as the downfield guy... then I'd say you're basically one legit body short of an honest NFL WR corps. Not necessarily a big dollar guy, but maybe someone to complement Reynolds in that floater role, big enough to play outside while Amon-Ra stays in the slot.

What do we think Devante Parker is going to want in a new deal? He's the sort of guy I have in mind here, maybe. Is he now a $6m guy?

What about Mack Hollins (can play special teams, can run a respectable go-get-it deep route, can sport a sweet 'fro) for presumably a fraction of that?

Ju Ju Smith-Schuster is somehow still only 26 years old. And he showed in KC that he can put up good numbers as a non-#1 WR.

As a 2/3 with Williams, he could be a very good addition. Not sure what his market will be, though. He's not an under the radar guy.

dola: Jarvis Landry was injured last season, and when he was healthy, his QBs were Jameis and Andy Dalton. So his bad numbers were not entirely his fault.

He might have one year left in the tank (30 years old--another guy younger than it feels like he should be). He's a great candidate for a cheap prove-it deal with lots of incentives.

I think Quik's take on the WRs is good. On paper it kind of seems like a strength, but in reality everything after Amon-Ra is questionable. Jameson Williams absolutely should be the #2 guy, but he caught all of one ball last year & there's a handful of guys you could pencil in at #3 WR....but you could just as easily pen every one of them in at #6.

I kind of lump Chark in with Anzalone & would offer them below-market deals to test how far Campbell's appeal extends.

…PFF shows Raymond w 555 snaps. Even if that includes a full special teams load, that’s still more than I would have guessed. Do they use him as an F in a 4-wide regularly? (I’d assume so, for that tally)

Raymond has done a little bit of everything for the Lions & has been relatively bullet-proof, so I think he picked up a lot of those extra snaps in unexpected relief duty all over the field.

Jamal Williams' free agency is another interesting question. On paper bringing him back seems like a no-brainer, if Anzalone has been the heart of the defense than Williams has operated as the heart of the offense, even though he was brought in to serve as a backup & he ended the season as a top performing RB. He has practically said he'd give the Lions friendly rates to return...but what are friendly rates for someone who just ran for 1000 yards and 17 TDs? Even at friendly rates I think he can probably demand at least starter money from the Lions on the back of those stats, but do the Lions actually want to run Williams as their starter or pay him starter to money to play backup to Swift/TBD?

Williams value as starter seems almost the opposite of what he offers as a backup. He's not a true home-run threat and probably needs a third down/long distance threat when considering him as a starter, whereas he seems like a plus for a backup in all those same situations. He also seems to bring some flavor and leadership to the locker room that can't necessarily be easily replaced. What do you do with him?

Jamal is a legit 3 down back and his pass pro is among the best in the league. All you miss with him is the home run, but he is durable, has good vision between tackles and will always fall forward after contact. Find a good change of pace option, whether that be Swift or someone else and make Williams you bell cow. He is Derrick Henry like, without Henry's top end speed. Plus, what he brings to the locker room is invaluable.

Pass protection is something I didn't consider. Good point. I can't/won't argue with anything you said.

Solid case to just run it back at RB, to me. Seems totally unlikely that Jamal would prefer another spot, he'd likely take a reasonable deal.

After Anzalone and Williams I don't think there's a whole lot of questions about the Lions own class of free agents. I personally like nose tackle Isaiah Buggs, big dude who flashed a little bit late season & who lots of other Lions defenders have praised for his locker-room presence. I don't think he's earned anything other than a solid backup contract, but I'd be happy to let literally every other Lions free agent other than the three named above (and maybe Chark as I posted upthread?) walk without even an offer.

That looks like a $7m savings (and $7m dead cap hit). Not a huge amount to free up, but if it gets us a re-signed happy Jamaal Williams and maybe a usable ILB, I'm game for that swap.

Would/should the Lions make a play for just released Bobby Wagner?

...kinda like that for a young team like this. Brockers' leadership goes, Wagner fills two roles that way, right?

I really love the idea of bringing in a veteran linebacker to be the leader and wear the green dot. The UFA linebacker class was loaded before Wagner was released. I think this would be a great way to spend some of that cap space. The core of the defense is still very young and bringing in a Wagner or Lavonte David seems like a perfect fit at the moment.

I love the idea too, it's a black hole of a position that the Lions have never filled adequately in recent memory, though not for a lack of trying (hello Jarrad Davis X2).

I'm interested to see if any kind of big FA play is in Brad Holmes blood. First offseason they did almost nothing in FA (outside of the Stafford trade of course) which made sense for a foundational rebuild, the aforementioned Williams and Anzalone were probably Holmes' biggest scores, but they were hardly big ticket items at the time. I totally expected the Lions to make some significant FA moves last year, but Holmes may have done even less in FA last year. Of course that all looks super shrewd in hindsight, building a winning record out of misfit toys on one-or-two year deals & clearing out tons of cap space for a future that is now...but it still seems like we have little clue whether Brad Holmes' FA frugality is a temporary, rebuilding strategy or some kind of core belief.

I don't understand the details as well as many of you, so let me approach this from an ownership perspective and ask: what is the goal we're shooting for with this team?

After reading this:


I come to some conclusions:

1. The bar's probably pretty low for actually making the playoffs since we can have the reasonable expectation that the other 3 teams in the division are going to have tough years. So, ambitions need to be set higher than that.

2. If Goff and the offense can at least replicate last year, they'll be a) able to win games on their own and b) hold up their end of the bargain in the playoffs. However, they're not going to be the type of unit that drags the team through the playoffs to the Super Bowl.

Which means:

3. The defense needs a serious, serious upgrade.


So, a strategic question to me is: to what extent can they upgrade the defense and is it enough to get past the first round for the first time in 21 years and if so is that their short-term goal? Or, could they aim even higher in a NFC lacking elite QBs and get that defensive unit even better than the offensive unit and make a good shot at making the Super Bowl?

Put more simply: is the goal here incremental improvements with success being winning a playoff round, or is there an opportunity to go all-in for a shot at the title?

Fair framing, there.

I'd say that the goal, in my mind, would feel more like:

-this year make the playoffs "with a shot"
-build so that playoff expectations are routine for years ahead
-hope that enough magic dust lands out way that we're a top threat

The Lions have spent arguable my entire football life playing for second place behind Favre or Rodgers & I'm not certain Lions fans know how to consider the division any other way at this point. Will take some adjustment.

What if you called the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and offered the number six pick for Devin White? Or even pick 6/18 for pick 19 and White. He is looking to get paid, but he would be a sure thing stud in the middle of that defense.

I think the deep-data view of Devin White is less flattering than the surface level view. He is fast as hell and is around the play a lot, makes a lot of big plays, etc. But the guys at PFF watching every play, not just splash ones, seem to find him as the emblem of a certain type of player who is overrated hy the highlight reel and sack/tackle numbers. As in, he misses assignments, jumps coverage, takes chances, and so forth in the pursuit of big plays but fairly often at the cost of leaving someone wide open or leaving a gap uncovered in the run stop scheme.

Lavonte David, maybe a fit for this team, he's the sound LB from that roster (albeit in his last phase). But I think I'd rather let someone else give White a Bud Dupree type contract.

According to the desert experts, Lions are fifth mathematically to make it to the Super Bowl.

That being said, I want nothing to do with Jalen Ramsey at the ridiculous cost of trading for him and backing up the dump truck to pay him. Seems like the type of thing that just undermines the progress Holmes has made the last few years.

The rumors of trading for Josh Allen though have me excited. No. Not that Josh, the other one who plays defense.

I feel like the window is now. Windows can open and close pretty quickly in the NFL and given how the Lions ended the season, the lack of QB talent in the conference and the state of the division, it's sort of a... Why not us? Other than Philly and San Francisco, I don't feel like there are any other teams in the NFC that the Lions couldn't, at least, really compete with.

Given how young the core of the team is, we want to build this thing for sustained success, but I think we start trying to create a roster that has a shot of winning the division and making some noise on the playoffs.


Yeah, I agree with Jalen Ramsey. He would fill a huge, huge need, but given his age and the amount of draft capital and then cap space it would take to acquire him, it feels like it's just too much. It cuts against the notion of trying to make some noise this year, but it doesn't feel like it sets the team up for long term success.

I haven't heard about this Josh Allen rumor, but it intrigues...

Agreed.

The last time the Lions had talent at the LB position was when the Lions added Justin Durant and Stephen Tulloch back in 2011. That was a long, long time ago.

Holmes has had shown no appetite (or aptitude?) with respect to free agency so far. In some ways, I understand why. The Lions have not been in a position where a big free agent signing was really going to move the needle. Quinntricia left the cupboard so incredibly bare, that it didn't make sense to spend money on a guy who, in all likelihood, would be cut by the time the team was competitive.

Since I am Hockey Boy, I will make the comparison to the Red Wings and the Yzerplan. The Red Wings have been awful for a long time now. When Yzerman became the GM for the Wings in 2019, the team was in shambles. He barely made any free agent signings and the ones he did were almost all one or two year deals. He was dedicated to building through the draft, which, admittedly, takes a lot, lot longer in the NHL and making trades to acquire players with potential. It wasn't until last summer, that he finally pulled the trigger on a few big ticket free agent signings. He felt like the team was finally in a position to potentially compete for a playoff spot.

I am hoping that Holmes is doing something similar. He saw the progress during the back half of the year by the young players. He sees the division as ripe for the taking and sees the NFC as a conference of parity - as we do - and figures it's time to strike while the iron is hot and add some veteran pieces to take this thing to the next level.

So, you've answered my either/or question by taking both sides of the "or". Does this mean that you can both take a shot at the title, and also build for long-term success at the same time, in the context of this team, right now? Actual question, not rhetorical question.

Because it feels to me like signing Ramsey would be a key part of taking the shot now, even if it's not a longer-term decision. And I would assume you could spend a lot more "problemmatic in a few years" money on other defensive stars to take that shot now with a higher probability than being careful to sign quality up-and-comers on defense that will incrementally take you to the next level, but probably still make a shot at the SB next year an outside chance.

Considering the need at the position, I think I'd be willing to trade the 18th pick for Ramsey.

I am slightly leaning toward the "the NFC is wide open" way of thinking, and making a win-now move like that is worth it.

If you combine that with trading down from #6 (depending on how the QBs fall) to maybe gain another second rounder, I think that you can balance young players with blue chippers.

dola: If they ask for more than the #18 pick, then I'm out.

double dola:

I like the idea of grabbing a #1 CB or a #1 WR because it can have trickle down effects on your roster. By pushing everyone down the depth chart, you improve at positions 2-4 as well. It may not turn a weakness into a strength, but it can turn a weakness into "OK, we don't need to worry about this" with just one move.

If we were after a "go for it" veteran, do we prefer CB Ramsey over WR Hopkins? I think I do, but that seems like a threshold question, even before adjusting for market price, cap hit, etc.

Why not both?

Before I brought in an alpha WR, I'd be very very confident that he and my other alpha WR (St. Brown) will get along.

The last thing you want on this culture-based team is a WR after a win talking about how he only got 2 targets and something need to change, etc. etc.