The Heat of South Beach: A Jestorball MP Article Saga (DDSPB 1/2)
 

This will be a much different dynasty than you're used to seeing from me in the following ways:

1. This is an MP league, not an SP dynasty.
2. Rather than the narrative format, it will be presented almost wholly in articles, with the occasional F-2-F commentary.
3. It won't die an early death. There are 383 articles right now on the NLL's forum all written by me. Some are long, some are short. Some are serious, some are quite silly. Most deal with my team, some deal with other teams or the league as a whole.

The Backstory
I have a terrible track record with MP leagues. I'm notorious for joining them, getting an initial rush of enthusiasm, and then burning out (not unlike my dynasties, save for a rare few). In fact, this dynasty will actually chronicle my second stint in the NLL. The first time, as you'll see in the opening article or two, I took the Orlando Magic, did a terrible job because it was my first DDS MP experience, and quit after an offseason and a half-season, partly because it wasn't fun anymore and partly because at the time there was a guy in the league I absolutely hated.

Ironically enough, the same guy would later end up taking the Magic, shortly before I came back and took on the Heat. We get along okay now, but he's an excellent GM, so the Florida Wars, as I like to call them, have made for an interesting rivalry.

This is very much going to be an in medias res situation because of the format. To be honest, I'm not sure whether people will enjoy reading it, or whether they'll get confused. I'll try combing through the NLL archives periodically to see if I can find relevant information if it's needed for clarity.

I'll also try to update once a day, if possible. Doing that, it would take me over a year if I posted every single article I've ever written. We'll see what happens.

Hope you enjoy the ride.

Oh yes, one other thing to note. Like the GAH, the historical league which I co-commish, it's a real player one, but both the NLL and the GAH are their own organic universes. The stars of the NLL (and to a lesser extent, the GAH) are not necessarily those of the real world. In fact, there's some superstars in the NLL who don't play in the NBA in real life, or who are marginal players at best.

I've also chosen the NLL over the GAH for this dynasty because 1) I have a lot more material for it and 2) I think my best media work so far has been in the NLL.

Jestor Returns To South Florida; Shakeup Imminent

Former Magic and new Heat GM Jestor in Spain, where he was rumored to be talking with Pau Gasol and Ricky Rubio

Just when Rudy Gay and Ty Lawson thought it was safe to walk the streets of Florida again, an old and terrible menace arose from the palm trees.

Jestor, who infamously traded Gay and Lawson while with the Orlando Magic, announced today that he'd accepted the position of GM with the Miami Heat. Although his tenure with the Magic was brief, Jestor became known in Orlando for his lavish productions, including draft day parties and his all-stops pursuit of Amar'e Stoudamire that kept the Magic in the running longer than anyone anticipated. He also dealt Gay as part of a package for veteran defender Ron Artest as the main return piece, a deal that raised eyebrows and caused some to question his sanity, if not his outright ability.

Regardless, Miami was eager to acquire him and Jestor was just as eager to sign, having grown comfortable in Florida from his Orlando days and a lifelong Miami Dolphins fan. Rumor has it that 'Phins season tickets are included as part of his contract.

The Heat have been grossly underachieving, posting a 25-44 mark so far this season and are a lock to be a Top 10 pick. But unfortunately for Jestor, much as he faced in Orlando, the first rounder is not his new team's, but another's, in this case the eternally unconquerable dynasty of the Detroit Pistons.

There's talent there, certainly. Richard Jefferson is a former All-Star still capable of 20 points a game, and, at 31, he still has plenty more left in the tank. Gay is still young at 25 and a top quality player and Pau Gasol made the All-Star game this year, also at 31. Then there's youngsters such as Stanley Robinson, the 19 year old rookie who has failed to see the minutes he deserves, especially as the team has plunged into guaranteed lotterydom.

No doubt the first order of business for Jestor's Heat will be to insert Robinson in the starting lineup and see how he does the rest of the season. Although the trade moratorium is in place until the offseason, one would expect teams to start inquiring after various of Miami's pieces. On the bright side, the Heat do own the Rockets' 1st round pick which should be a mid 1st rounder with a very outside shot of being late lottery if Houston's poor run of form continues and leads to a playoff miss.

On the other hand, Lawson, who Jestor failed to pick up the 4th year option on in Orlando, might well be able to walk as an unrestricted free agent because not all of his options were picked up. The Heat are waiting for a ruling from league officials, however.

"Everyone and I do mean everyone will be available" Jestor said at the conference formally declaring his hiring, "Obviously some players will be deemed much more valuable than others, but when this talented a team is struggling to the degree that the Heat have, this is more than a question of coaching or of strategy. It's a sign that this group of players, regardless of how individually talented they may be, have not been able to mesh as a team, so it needs to be broken up.

Whether we go for the restructuring and attempt to keep the same talent level, but better performing, or whether we do as a certain Taber did in Cleveland, will depend entirely on what kind of negotiations and offers we have. The only thing I can guarantee is that we will not be idle this offseason. We will be extremely active in completely remodeling this franchise."

If past history is any indication, that means lots of trades. However, the Heat may not be so active in free agency. The Stoudamire situation aside, Jestor is well-known for his philosophy of building through trades and drafts, avoiding the free agent market whenever possible. In any case, the Heat are currently over cap and may not even use their exemptions, though that remains to be seen.

By the way, as a little bit of deeper background, the Orlando Magic GM before me traded a first round pick for Ty Lawson.

Guess what happened?

Yeah, it became the #1 overall pick, turning into Cole Aldrich, who I may talk more about later in a non-article post. And that's precisely when I came in, for that offseason. Could've had the #1 pick, but instead I had some scrubby late first rounder, a pick I promptly made worse by screwing up.

As for Lawson, well, I'll probably expand more on his career later, but suffice it to say, this was doubtless one of the single worst trades by GM in league history.

Just glad it wasn't me who made it.

Remaining Games Will Clarify Initial Inklings

Is Stanley Robinson the answer as the franchise face?

The Miami Heat have yet to play a game under the Jestor regime, but we already know that they're going to run a much slower offense than the hellburner pace they've been playing. Jestorball does like to run slightly faster than the average offense, but considers warp speed an invitation to injuries, turnovers and poor shooting. We also know that the Houston Rockets' pick they own is not available for discussion unless it involves Miami moving up in the draft and that Rudy Gay is a good bet to once again be traded after the turbulent chapter in Orlando.

Beyond that, nothing's a certainty, not even Stanley Robinson's staying with the Heat. However, insider sources are already providing information on the opinionated GM's gut feelings on every player on the roster.

Point Guard
Earl Watson
Very good veteran defender with adequate passing and handling for a reserve point guard, although not ideal. Doesn't look for his own shot much and turns into a $6.2 million expiring contract next year. There are worse options out there and while trading Earl isn't out of the question, indications are that Jestor would be perfectly fine going forward with him as a backup and piece of future financial flexibility.

Ramon Sessions
Breathtaking 3 point shooter who has all the talent and intangibles needed to become an All-Star, but he's looked surprisingly ordinary, both as a passer and as a scorer, the latter due to his low shooting percentage. Is it a result of the system or is it something endemic to Sessions himself? That's the question Miami's front office will try to get an answer to in the small sample size of remaining games. Given the draft's depth at guard, there's a fair shot that Sessions could be traded for the right pieces. We're hearing that Ramon will get looks at both guard spots to see how he does in the handful of games left. There's already teams expressing interest in him, which increases the chance he could be traded.

Darren Collison
22 year old still has some upside left and has shown occasional flashes of ability, but inconsistent playing time makes it extremely difficult to get a read on just how good he is. Like Watson, he'll be an expiring contract next season. Insiders tell us he could be traded to a team willing to give him a chance and more playing time. He's certainly looked much better in his limited minutes than he has at any other point in his career, suggesting that he's improved from his first two seasons, or indeed even earlier this year.

Ty Lawson
49.2% in a Heat uniform this year, 42.5% from long-range. Those are the kind of numbers that put a player in good graces with Jestor. He'll see some more playing time down the stretch to see if he can handle the new offense and if Miami would be interested in bringing him back when he hits free agency. He'll either be re-signed or he'll walk is our current guess, although the smart money may be on the latter, given the Orlando history.

Jason Hart
33 year old vet expires at the end of the year. Good looking player on paper and showed some good form in scant minutes this season, but because of his age and the presence of Watson and Collison, he probably takes a hike.

Shooting Guard
Anthony Morrow
Scoring crack in a can. Insane shooting of 46.8% and 43.7% from long-range and averaged 10.2 points in just 17.7 minutes. Has never even heard of the word defense, but this 2nd round rookie (taken with the 8th pick in the 2nd round) has been a pleasant surprise this year. Disciplined, too. Although an intriguing player and cheap to boot, he might be gone in the offseason. At least one team has expressed interest in his sexy point production.

Small Forward
Richard Jefferson
One of the team's two best players, he played great this year when he wasn't dinged up with niggling injuries caused by the Heat's torrid pace. He's got some back soreness right now and as a result, he's benched until he fully heals. A 20 point per game scorer who plays great defense with ballstealing ability is not something you risk losing to a serious injury, especially not when he's one of your team's most attractive pieces of trade bait. In fact, some within the organization speculate Jestor might simply shut him down for the rest of the season, just to play it safe.

Stanley Robinson
Breathtaking potential from the 19 year old, who, as many have already commented, didn't see the playing time he deserved due to absentee management. He'll be plugged in as the starter for the rest of the year. There's already been interest in him, but the only way Robinson goes is in some kind of package that gives the Heat the guaranteed #1 overall pick and Ricky Rubio, who Jestor would lobby intensely to come out in that scenario. He's 19 and that means a lot of years and a long career in the NLL. The only drawback is, he's an undersized 4, but a 4 he most certainly is.

L.R. Mbah a Moute
One-note defensive specialist. The 25 year old wants out of Miami in the worst possible way and if the Heat get a suitor, he'll probably get his wish. The Heat want no malcontents on the team and Jestor believes there's enough defense that Moute's specialities aren't needed.

Rudy Gay
Ah, yes. Rudy Gay. One of the best all-around young players in the game. You can bet that the Heat won't trade him, Walter Sharpe and a 2nd round pick for Ron Artest this go-round like in Orlando. There, the Magic were forced to trade him to get something or risk him walking. Here, he's signed on for four more years, allowing Jestor and Miami to wait and see what comes of it. A lot of teams want him, but what will they be willing to pay? That's the question.

Power Forward
Cheik Samb
According to insiders, Jestor views Samb as the young, black reincarnation of Chris Dudley, which is to say that he's a rebounder, defender and blocker 3 in 1 specialist in the making who won't even think about shooting and will at least hit half the time when he does. There's already been an inquiry about him, but it's not a guarantee he goes. Not when he's a cheap, young, valuable specialist locked up for 3 more years and not when the big man crop in this year's draft is looking so weak. Anything's possible, though. His high work ethic also bumps his value.

Brian Scalabrine
Struggled with his shot this year, which may be a mark of the speed system. Good defender, smart player who turns expiring next year. Certainly tradeable.

Pau Gasol
The single-best player on the team and Jestor's favorite. An All-Star with a receding contract. Offers will come fast and furious for Gasol, but it's going to take a great one to pry the Spainard loose. Which isn't to say it can't be done. It can. But if he goes, expect Miami to go into full-fledged rebuilding mode, a la the Cavaliers in the first year of the Taber regime.

Center
Rafael Arujao
Good, solid veteran center. Expiring contract. Not starter-worthy, but a capable reserve who could come back at the right price.

Final Outlook
We'll go on record right now as saying none of these players are guaranteed to be traded, but that of the players expected to get calls about them, Gay and Jefferson are the most likely, followed by Samb and Sessions, then Gasol and Robinson, only in the right deal. All the other players are equally likely to be traded or not. In terms of picks, Miami's 2013 1st can not be traded due to consecutive pick rule and they're not likely to hand out their 2014 1st either. The Rockets' 1st in this draft we already covered, but the 2nd round picks are a fair bet to be trade chips, given Jestor's history.

*******

Context Notes
Wow, it's amazing to look back at this and remember what I started with. The Chris Dudley reference, incidentally, harkens back to the first incarnation of the GAH, when it was a 1990s league for a couple seasons before I got burnt out being the guy who did everything. Learned a valuable lesson that co-commishing and dividing up the duties is the way to go about it to ensure long-term stability, like we have now in GAH 2.0 (Started in 1976, now in the offseason prior to 1983).

I'll talk more about some of these guys later on, but this gives you a more complete overview of just what exactly I had at the beginning. Many of these guys I'd forgotten about until reading this again.

Someone at the WS boards who's in the league suggested I post the ratings now rather than end season, and it makes sense to see what I started off with.

So here's the HTML ratings:



A couple of notes here:

1. Stanley Robinson and Cheikh Samb had very enticing potentials you obviously won't see in the HTML, which is why they were drawing interest already.

2. Basically, as you may have gotten a sense of in the first couple of articles, when I took over, the team was two 30+ veterans in Richard Jefferson and Pau Gasol, two promising guys in Robinson and Samb, and a bunch of role players, although Anthony Morrow was the kind of specialist that intrigued certain GMs. And that was before the league tidal shift that occurred under not too long after I took on the Heat. But that will be covered in great detail later.

A couple more screens:



Gives you an idea of the age and contract distribution we had going on. I'd show the stats, too, but this is end season HTML from NLL's archives so it wouldn't tell you much.

I think the previous Heat GM, who was there a very long time, must have been a big UCLA fan, given how many Bruins are on the roster. I can remember his real name, but not his NLL nick anymore. Weird how that works.

Anyway, as you can probably tell from Flip Saunders, Miami had a very long history of success prior to the GM's quitting when the team started falling apart the year I joined (due largely to very questionable moves on his part, some of which may get talked about later in this dynasty).

Unfortunately, that long history of success didn't include any titles. It was the era of the Detroit dynasty, which I'll discuss more later on, because this was still in the middle of that period. So essentially, the Heat for years were one of those teams who was so agonizingly close, but never could pull it off.

And now a middling roster that should have been around .500 thanks to stars Pau and R-Jeff and the pieces around them, but was underachieving due to the inability to mesh was mine.

I had a lot of work to do.

Pick Breakdown Upon Taking Over
Houston Rockets 2011 1st
Miami Heat 2011 2nd
Sacramento Kings 2011 2nd
Miami Heat 2012 1st
Atlanta Hawks 2012 2nd
Miami Heat 2013 1st
San Antonio Spurs 2013 1st
Miami Heat 2013 2nd
New York Knicks 2013 2nd

Looks like a great haul, right? Well, not really. As I indicated in the opening article, the Rockets were in a fierce fight for the playoffs, so that was a mid-first. Don't remember the Kings' status at the time, but we were worse.

With the Heat and Magic down in the dumps, the Southeast was a battle between Charlotte and Atlanta most years, with the Washington Wizards annual underachievers thanks to a GM, Matt, who was great at putting talent and teams together on paper, but who couldn't execute on the court.

The San Antonio Spurs were, like the Heat during the prior GM's tenure, an annual playoff team under their own long-time GM, Najira, and didn't look to go into a decline phase anytime soon, and the New York Knicks under tokyojordan were one of the strongest teams in the Atlantic, which at that time was one of the better divisions in the league, if memory serves correctly.

Jestor Declares Investigations Myopic

With a history of lambasting previous regimes, it's no wonder that new Heat GM Jestor was quick to launch a tirade against the prior front office's three scouting decisions.

According to inside sources, the GM remarked rather frostily that, "The only smart thing they did was to only scout three players and not totally screw us in our hunt for good players." The players scouted were two aged 25 or older and one 22 year old, all three of whom are projected to go in the 2nd round and looked very much like the second rounders they are.

A person who sat in on the latest scouting meeting, speaking on condition of anonymity, reported that Jestor said, "The myopic scouting investigations by my predecessor are exactly why this team is in the position it is. To call this squad a title contender that only needs the help of an older player is foolhardy at best. As it stands right now, the roster is not even composed to challenge for a playoff spot, as it proved in the asskicking the Suns gave us last night."

With the Rockets' 1st round pick, a likely mid-round selection, the Heat's own 2nd rounder and the Kings' 2nd round pick, it's probable Miami will now shift its focus to players who have potential to be in the 14-17 range, as well as those who have a good shot at being a high 2nd round selection. It's believed that the front office will completely ignore scouting for the Kings' selection, preferring to take a flyer on a player there and focus their efforts on a selection of greater immediate impact.

Heat Rookie Struggling With New Offense

Doubtless Stanley Robinson is nostalgic for his UConn days and wishes he hadn't gone one and done

The Miami have won just one game since Jestor took over as GM, and although the Heat nearly knocked off the New Orleans Hornets in their last contest, it's clear the team is still struggling to adapt to the new offense, perhaps none more so than rookie Stanley Robinson.

On the surface, he's not doing all that badly. In five starts at PF, he's gone 11/22, or 50% from the floor and is averaging around a steal and a block per game. But Jestor and the Heat believe that at 6'9, 232 lbs, Robinson is too short for the style of offense the team plans to run. The Heat are also worried that he hasn't shown much scoring initiative and has struggled to keep from racking up the fouls.

"Maybe he came out too early", a West Conference scout commented, "Because right now, he's looking completely lost on a pro-level court. I think it was smart of the Heat to slow down the pace of the offense, which will let the kid pick things up, but it's going to take a while for him to adjust. Lots of teams would love to have him and knowing Jestor, a trade wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility."

In other news, it appears the Ty Lawson at PG experiment has been a failure and Ramon Sessions could be moved back to the 1 for the rest of the season, to see how he handles the new offense. Rudy Gay has been impressive and could find himself staying in Miami, as he's been playing Jestorball well.

****

Context Notes
Two short articles combined in one post here. A few comments:

1. The worst thing about coming in as a new GM as late in a season cycle as I did is that almost invariably, the previous owner will have done something very stupid to the team. If it's not trading away a valuable first (as happened in both these cases), it's dealing for a toxic contract or, the worst of all evils, really screwing up the scouting.

The previous Heat GM, redsoxnation I think his name was, come to think of it, something Red Sox anyway, as the first article indicates, had looked at second round picks for whatever reason. You see, he had this belief for a long, long time that his team was only one move away from contention and kept making the wrong trade in that errant belief. Stupid move piled on stupid move gets you stuck in mid-tier talent status, eventually falling into mediocrity or worse record, usually with little future assets because you've likely dealt away firsts in that quixotic quest.

2. On the other hand, there sat Stanley Robinson, my single greatest trade chip. Ironically enough, back then I was still very much a purist in my Jestorball ideology (we'll see a lot more of Jestorball philosophy and its evolution as we go along), which biased me against Robinson. I frankly thought him a tweener, both because of his height and his weight. It's not that he performed all *that* horribly for a raw rookie - as the article notes, he had some good things about his game, but even then, I was, like most new GMs, thinking about how I could remake this team and put my own stamp on it.

3. If you're surprised I started Ty Lawson, you shouldn't be. When you're a new GM coming in at the tail end of the season and you don't have your own first round pick, it's quite common to tinker with lineups and rotations, using the strategies you prefer, to see who might stick around and who you'll try to dump off. That's what I did.

Jestor Le Gusta Ricky Rubio

Spanish phenom PG Ricky Rubio bites basketballs like Miami Heat GM Jestor bites apples

How unfortunate that the Miami Heat don't have their first round pick this season. Then they might have a very good chance at winning the lottery and snapping up prized Spanish phenom point guard Ricky Rubio. But Rubio has not decided whether to declare and it could be that the Heat will try and get the #1 pick via trade or they may, if they can't secure the pick, try to sway him into waiting another season.

In the sort of extravagant, surreal pageantry we've come to expect from Jestor, the Miami Heat held a rally today to support Rubio's coming to South Florida. Spanish flags and signs proclaiming the city's love for Rubio waved in the hot early spring sun while Jestor spoke from a platform.


Rallygoers listen intently to Jestor's words

"Mi Espanol esta muy malo.. pero... Te amo, Ricky Rubio. Tu eres el Dio de Baloncesto. Nosotros quieremos que tu es un juego del Miami Heat. Nosotros tienemos muchos persones que dicen Espanol aqui. No Espanol de Espana, pero la Anglais de Estados Unidos no es la Anglais de Unidos Reinos. Tambien la ciudad Miami es una grande cuidad, y es posible a tu tienes mucho dinero aqui. Del Miami Heat tiene Pau Gasol y Pau he deciado que el tu aprendes la cultura y la vida des Estados Unidos. Gracias."

Despite the incredibly butchered Spanish, the speech was met with rousing cheers, to which Jestor answered "Yo tengo jamon para Ricky Rubio!", holding up a large hunk of meat. The meat was later sliced and distributed to the crowd for tasting.


A plate of the jamon served at the rally

Although the odds of the Heat ending up with Rubio, either in this draft or next, are likely slim, the chances of Rubio's wanting to play for Miami might well have increased after this event. Should Jestor and the Heat pull off the unthinkable feat in landing Rubio, whether via the draft or via trade, he'll spend his entire career in Miami and serve as the foundational piece for the Heat's reconstruction project.


A handmade sign from the rally

****

Context Notes
Just one of the silly articles I like to write from time to time with very bad foreign language skills. :D

This was the first NLL draft run by mtgr81, who would later become my co-commish in GAH, a role he still occupies. Back then, articles still had a small bit of potential to hold sway over a prospect and I really, really wanted Rubio in the league.

I not only love collecting international players, but Spain has become, through the years, one of my, if not *the*, favorite countries in the world. In particular, going to Granada feels like going home again, the first international city to acquire that designation for me.

Okay, enough of my blathering of non-DDS/non-NLL stuff. I'll toss in the next article right away to make up for the fluffy article here.

Seven Game Swoon Sour Close To Disappointing Season

Miami's leading scorer, SF Richard Jefferson, will likely find a new home in the offseason

In a way, we should have expected this. Experimental lineups sans leading scorer Richard Jefferson, a new offensive system, multiple injuries to the frontcourt, including PF Stanley Robinson, C Pau Gasol and C Cheikh Samb, and new GM Jestor called away for the last several games of the year. But that still doesn't fully eliminate the sting of the Miami Heat's seven-game losing streak to end the season, or the fact that the Heat were one of the most disappointing teams in the NLL this year. Having the Houston Rockets' 1st round pick, 15th overall, in the upcoming draft, is also a cold comfort, given that the Detroit Pistons are sitting #5 with Miami's own selection following tonight's lottery.

If we know anything about Jestor, we know that sweeping, epic changes are in store this offseason. A fast and furious remodeling will give us a team that will likely bear little resemblance to the old, and no one is safe from departure. Not even Robinson, the 19 year old franchise player in waiting who was grossly mishandled by the previous regime and still learning how to play Jestorball at season's end.

And now, a review of the roster.

Point Guard


Ramon Sessions
Ignore his season numbers of 12.7 points, 8.2 assists, and 1.3 steals on 38.2% shooting. What's important is that after he was moved back to point guard after a brief tryout at shooting guard under Jestorball, he was 52/110 from the floor in 8 games, a 47.3% conversion rate. Take out an aberrant 5/18 game versus the Pacers and it becomes 47/92, or 51.1%, a far cry from his season numbers. Admittedly, 8 games is a small sample size, but the dramatic difference in numbers suggest that Sessions may in fact be the right fit for this team. Also during that span, Sessions played relatively turnover-free ball, and while his assist numbers weren't eye-popping, his A/TO ratio was also impressive in contrast to his larger body of work.
Verdict: At least one team has already expressed interest in Sessions and it's still possible he could go. But his late-season numbers have earned him some supporters in Miami's front office, who feel Sessions should get more time to show last month's form was no fluke.


Ty Lawson
Got a handful of starts at PG after Jestor took over and although he showed flashes of floor generalship, he did nothing to earn himself a contract renewal in the offseason. He's an unrestricted free agent, so he'll once again have a very short stay on a Jestor team.
Verdict: The only question is if an NLL team will give him a min-sal contract, or if he becomes a career D-Leaguer. And to think he was once essentially traded for Blake Griffin.

Darren Collison
Virtually disappeared after Jestor took over. Greatest value is his youth and his expiring contract next season.
Verdict: Could go separately in a small deal, but far more likely to be included in a bigger package. He could also stick around and become cap space for the team next year.

Earl Watson
See Collison, albeit much older and with a much larger expiring contract next year at $6.2 million.
Verdict: Perhaps the most likely of the point guards to stay, given the size of his expiring contract. Don't count out his being moved for reasons similar to Collison, however.

Jason Hart
Min-sal scrub. He gone.
Verdict: Gone.

Shooting Guard


Anthony Morrow
The only true SG on the roster, this second round rookie had a sensational season. Taken with the 38th overall pick, he averaged 10.5 points and shot 46.4% from the field, 44.7% from 3 point range in 18.5 minutes with 8 starts. Those 8 starts coincided with Sessions's PG appearances in Jestorball and Morrow shot 49/117 (41.9%) and averaged 13.4 points a game, with no other significant stats. The numbers suggest that Morrow is most effective as a scoring burst off the bench and a liability as a starter.
Verdict: He's gotten a few inquiries about him, and he could go, but on the other hand, he's so perfect and a cheap an instant jolt of bench scoring, Jestor might well overvalue him, as Morrow can singlehandedly outscore an opposing team's reserves. He's that good a point producer.

Small Forward


Richard Jefferson
Averaged 19.5 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.3 steals before Jestor arrived and shut him down for the rest of the year so his ankle injury didn't get worse. He's still an elite scorer, even at 31 and he's signed to a reasonable contract through his year 34 season. There's no question he'll be traded sometime in the next year, whether it's in the offseason or after next year begins.
Verdict: It's a matter of when, not if. Thus far, no team has expressed interest in R-Jeff, but that's only because he hasn't played in 13 games. Make no mistake about it, though, smart teams hoping to contend will come calling for this excellent, well-rounded veteran. But of course, he isn't going to go for a song either.


Rudy Gay
Shot a career-best 47.7% this season, en route to a 13 point, 4.8 rebound, steal per game year. Terrific defender who will shut down his opponent. Won't ever be an elite scorer, but he's the type of glue guy who does everything well and will be undervalued by some teams because he doesn't post eye-popping points per game.
Verdict: Some teams have asked about him and given Jestor's past history, we wouldn't be surprised to see Rudy dealt if the right situation comes along. On the other hand, with the Magic, Jestor was forced to trade him or get nothing. Here, he can afford to be patient with the 25 year old and word is, there's no sense of urgency at all to move Gay.


Stanley Robinson
8th overall pick suffered through an abysmal rookie season after being ignored by the previous management, then was thrust into a starting role while simultaneously having to learn an entire new scheme. Thus, it's no surprise that he struggled mightily. But make no mistake; the 19 year old is still a franchise player in the making. The only problem is, he may not be the best fit for Jestorball.
Verdict: Call it 50/50 if he stays or goes. Jestor is notorious for changing players to fit his system, not changing his system to fit his players. Several teams have already come calling and more will do so as the offseason goes on. But the price will be quite high, particularly since Robinson is best suited to play the post in a league short on talented young 4s and 5s.

L.R. Mbah a Moute
Little-used and a non-factor on the roster. Don't expect that to change next year.
Verdict: If he goes, it'll be as part of a package to make salaries match. Otherwise he'll probably rot away, deep on the bench or the inactive list, until his contract runs out.

Power Forward


Pau Gasol
Jestor's most-loved player on this team averaged 17.1 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.9 blocks on 53.2% shooting en route to an All-Star appearance. Signed to a declining contract, unlike Jefferson's ascending deal, but also for two more years. R-Jeff may be the lead scorer, but Gasol's the MVP and the direction the Heat goes in will determine what happens to Pau.
Verdict: Sources tell us that if it wasn't for Pau, Miami would head straight to rebuild territory and not look back. But Jestor's strong Spanish ties could lead the Heat to retool in hopes of being a contender in the East. If not, though, expect the team to painfully part with Pau for a princely package, probably of picks and players.


Cheikh Samb
The phone's been ringing off the hook for this rookie, who has drawn repeated comparisons to a young Chris Dudley. A controlled shooter who defers to others, is an exceptional rebounder, defender, blocker in the making, and an obscenely cheap contract, will always draw lots of suitors. Funny thing is, the Heat like him too, and if Pau goes, that makes Samb all the more valuable.
Verdict: No less than 5 teams have already asked about Samb, so expect a fierce bidding war to erupt. If Pau gets traded, look for the Heat to be much less inclined to deal Samb, unless they get back a young big they covet themselves, either for Samb or for Gasol in some type of a package. Rumor has it that Miami's in discussions with at least one team over just that scenario. Although the Heat are in no rush to trade Samb, indications are very likely that he'll be playing elsewhere next season.

Brian Scalabrine
See Watson, Earl.
Verdict: See Watson, Earl.

Center

Rafael Araujo
Solid all-around veteran center on an expiring contract. Made for a serviceable backup, but probably won't be back next year, as Jestor seeks to make his imprint on the team.
Verdict: Likely gone.

Overall Outlook
The question boils down to the same one that faces every mid-tier team in terms of talent - go for broke in trying to contend, or go the Cavaliers route and completely rebuild? Our money's on the latter option, Pau Gasol notwithstanding, particularly given how good the 2013 draft class promises to be, and with Miami ineligible to trade its own first round pick. The Heat also have their own and the Spurs' 2014 1st round pick, although the latter just took a huge hit in value with the Spurs winning the Ricky Rubio Sweepstakes.

The next couple of seasons will likely be a painful transition, but Miami should emerge out of it a better team than the current dysfunctional assembly of talented pieces. In any case, the offseason promises to be a most exciting one in South Florida.


***

Context Notes
Whoops. I was wrong on the eventual topflight big Ty Lawson was traded for. Thought it was Cole Aldrich but it was Blake Griffin, that eventual 1st overall pick.

In any case, this pretty much outlines where we were at in terms of our evaluations of players following our experimental tinkerings the rest of the year after I came in. It really sucked seeing the Pistons, who by the way, won the championship, their third championship in four seasons. Only the Chicago Bulls, led by Erick, the guy who became the Magic GM after me, broke that streak.

San Antonio won the #1 overall pick in the lottery, something like the third time they'd won it through the years. And of course, the belief was that they would draft Ricky Rubio, who, as you can see here, did declare. Despite all those #1 picks though, the Spurs hadn't been anything more than a consistent playoff team - a bit like the Washington Bullets in the current version of GAH, who won back to back #1 picks, but only finally became a strong team this season. (There's more to *that* story as well, but I'll save it for if I ever start a GAH dynasty).

Samb. Robinson. Gay. Morrow. Those were the four players I was getting the most PMs about. I may have gotten a PM or two about Pau - I don't remember now, but in most MP leagues, youth will be in extremely high demand and veterans like R-Jeff will get ignored because they're considered too old.

The only question now was who to deal and what for.

Blockbuster Rumored

Not part of the suspected trade: The goth girl or the guy worshipping her

We've just received word that the Miami Heat and GM Jestor have given their verbal agreement to a blockbuster that will shake up the roster and put Miami firmly in the contending category.

The front office is notoriously tight-lipped and are refusing to comment on the trade, though sources from other organizations tell us that much-coveted young PF/C Cheikh Samb is part of the deal.

As per Jestorian policy, any further inquiry about Samb and the other pieces involved will either be ignored or replied to with a "Piece Not Available" type PM, for the Heat do not break verbals.

Swingmen Seem To Be Target

The latest mock draft has the Heat taking PF Tadija Dragicevic

The Miami Heat not only have hot and heavy rumors of a verbaled blockbuster trade, they're also sending their scouts out to investigate players for the upcoming draft. Although the front office and GM Jestor refused to comment on who they're targeting, it seems reasonable that they're looking at the swing spots with the 16th overall pick. One anonymous source suggested that Richard Jefferson or the #16 pick will go for a power forward and if that's the case, then the Heat will either be out of the first round or likely looking for a swingman to replace Jefferson, unless they got one back in the megadeal buzzing around the league.

According to the latest mock draft, PF Tadija Dragicevic will be the Heat's selection, should they still hold the pick. That seems certainly within the realm of possibility if the Heat still need a swingman, as 6'9, 235 fits the big SF mold characteristic of Jestorball and appears to have a well-balanced game.

While we don't know if Dragicevic is a target of the Heat, we do know that Miami is focusing their efforts on just a handful of players, preferring to go through an in-depth evaluation of a select few, rather than have incomplete information on a broader range of prospects. Sources also say the front office is making no effort to scout for their 2nd round pick, as it's the second to last selection in the draft.

Heat Reportedly Offering #16; 1 of 2 2014 Picks For Right Player

Miami Heat mascot Burnie was rejected when he applied for the starting SF spot, so he's making eyes at the cute brunette girl, which angered the boyfriend in between. A fight broke out moments after this photo was taken and Burnie burned the boyfriend.

Word has it that the Miami Heat have another verbal essentially agreed to, one that will send SF Richard Jefferson out for a player quite capable of filling the power forward void.

This impending deal, coupled with the verbal blockbuster already rumored on the streets, has opened up the door for a third trade in the combination, whereby the Heat are seeking a stellar veteran small forward to replace Jefferson. It's believed the Heat are offering a package of the 16th overall pick in the upcoming draft and one of the two 2014 picks they hold, either Miami's own or San Antonio's.

Sources say GM Jestor is scouring the league for the right small forward fit for those two picks. It's also possible that Miami could keep the pick and draft a young SF, or potentially trading just the 16th pick itself for a small forward, if the Heat can't come to terms for a star small forward for its two pick package.

****

Context Notes
Three smaller articles lashed together. I no longer remember the guys I was targeting in the draft, outside of maybe two or three.

But the blockbuster I remember very well. It was my first ever trade as the Heat GM and suffice to say that it completely bowled the league over. I also had a lot of other conversations going on at the team, including one deal that got quite messy in the end, and represents a low point in my GM career.

damn you and your cliffhangers

:D A quick check shows the next article is another cliffhanger, with the first payoff the article after that.

Two Blockbusters Forthcoming; Trade, Draft Rumors Abound

Rudy Gay is dreaming about life away from Heat GM Jestor again

This much we've been able to find out from our Heat sources: Stanley Robinson, Cheikh Samb, Rudy Gay, Ramon Sessions, and Richard Jefferson are all either completely guaranteed to leave or, in Jefferson's case, so close to leaving, we may as well call it done.

None of this, of course, is news to the most diehard of Heat followers. But what we have been able to glean is that Miami will return three players for those five and none will be older than 28 next season, with two 25 and under. On the face of it, this seems to fly in the face of GM Jestor's vow to be a contending team in the East next season, but our spies in Miami's front office tell us, "Only one of the guys we've got coming back is raw and needs development. The other two are good to go and you'll see a dramatic improvement in the team's performance next season."

At least one of the deals involves a three-way swap, and speculation is rampant that Jestor's old team, the Orlando Magic, is involved, although no confirmation has been forthcoming.

Other rumors are springing out of the agreed-to moves. We've heard that the Jefferson trade will give Miami a large amount of cap space with which to acquire an upper-echelon player, likely at the forward positions. Although no names have officially come up, the Internet rumor mill so far has sprouted Boston's Joe Johnson, New York's Rashard Lewis, Philadelphia's Amare Stoudamire, Sacramento's Elton Brand, Dallas's Lamar Odom, Denver's Ron Artest, Detroit's Andrei Kirilenko, Washington's Shawn Marion, Phoenix's James Johnson, New Jersey's Luol Deng, Minnesota's Marvin Williams and Emeka Okafor, and the Lakers' Dirk Nowitzki.

What have the Heat to offer for this troop of studly forwards? Reports suggest that super-scorer Anthony Morrow is high on a lot of teams' lists, but Jestor overvalues him in turn. There's also the #16 pick in the upcoming draft, Miami's own 2014 1st round pick and the San Antonio Spurs' 2014 1st as the primary pieces of interest.

Should Miami keep #16, it's believed that they'll go for a forward for a starter or for depth purposes, since that's where they scouted, but don't be surprised if the Heat pull a swerve and go big man or guard, because Jestor has historically been impulsive with his draft picks and has a notoriously bad drafting record. (see: Sonny Weems, Walter Sharpe).

With so many cards unrevealed and so much flux in the making, only one thing is guaranteed about the 2012-13 Miami Heat: Pau Gasol will be the starting center.

Which, in some way, is perfectly fitting. For it is Gasol whom Jestor is making all these moves for.

Jestor's Favorite Number; Intriguing Prospects Could Signal A Non-Trade

English C Joel Freeland is said to be catching the attention of the Heat's front office

A small bit of trivia about Miami Heat GM Jestor. His favorite number is 16. And that's exactly the pick his team owns in the upcoming draft, courtesy of the Houston Rockets' playoff entry.

All postseason long, the rumor's been that the #16 and one of the 2014 1sts will be dealt for a veteran forward, but according to the latest reports out of South Florida, the Heat may stand pat with their draft picks.

"There's a few guys the GM has his eye on for the spot", an anonymous source within the organization said, "As much as he wants to win Pau Gasol a title, he's also keeping an eye on the future, and there's a couple players that have really captured our interest lately."

One of those players is believed to be England's Joel Freeland, who could step in as the starting PF or come off the bench as Gasol's understudy and heir apparent. Of course, that wouldn't address the problem of a starting small forward, but according to the same source, the Heat will have a lot of cap space after trading Richard Jefferson shortly before free agency, enough to lure in an impact 3.

A Second Legitimate Blockbuster Just Verbaled To

There was a front-office wide celebration a few hours ago at the Miami Heat's headquarters, as GM Jestor hung up the phone and shouted, "We got him!"

Although a gag order has been issued on just who he is and what the particulars are, sources tell us that the deal involves the #16 pick, one of the 2014 first round selections Miami owns, and a pair of players. One employee, speaking of terms of anonymity, said, "This is a move that puts us firmly in the contending now camp. Our biggest issue now is going to be depth, and that's what our 2nd round pick and free agency is for, unless we see a potential starter in free agency that would allow us to move one of our projected starting five to the bench."

The verbal agreement ends a long, arduous search for the right veteran to lead what will become a radically remade roster for next season, as the Heat are making a push to try and bring Pau Gasol a ring.

Context Notes
Three articles put together again, because I know some of you are getting impatient to hear about these trades, which will come with the next post. :D

Man, oh man, the conversations we had with so many different teams about #16. It was crazy, and involved a lot of discussions on Yahoo Instant Messenger with guys.

That story I told you about how one of these trades ended up being one of the lowlights of my GM career? It involves #16.

keep up the good work and speed up the updating process ;)

Thanks. But speediness of updates is not promised. :D However, one is forthcoming now.

Epic Blockbuster Signals Wholesale Change of the Guards

The Miami Heat have a new franchise face and player in PG Chris Paul

Rumor leaked around the NLL, whispers that the first blockbuster trade Miami Heat GM Jestor pulled off was the acquisition of the league's best, young franchise point guard, Minnesota's Chris Paul, aka CP3. That suspicion became truth today as the Miami Heat rushed the details of a three-way trade immediately to the league Trading Office upon its opening. The deal is immense in its implications for all three teams involved and for the East as a whole.

For the Heat, the trade means goodbye to 8th overall pick SF Stanley Robinson, starters PG Ramon Sessions and SF Rudy Gay, and highly coveted young PF Cheikh Samb. Besides Paul, Miami also netted young SG Daequan Cook.

Celebration was in full swing at Miami Heat headquarters, with the entire staff given the rest of the day off if they wanted it, participation in an office party if they wanted to stay. Jestor was open and amicable when approached about the trade.

"It's funny how this trade came about. When I first took the job, a whole slew of teams came calling about Samb and Minnesota was one of them. Just as a shot in the dark, I asked if it was possible to get Paul if I opened up my entire roster. They said it was, but the price would be high, as befitting a franchise point guard who will still be just 27 next season.

We quickly settled on Sessions, Robinson, and Samb. The Timberwolves also wanted Rudy and they offered Daequan as part of it. We took a bit to think about it, but it wasn't hard for us to sign off on the deal.

As for the Magic, well they aggressively pursued Samb from the beginning and when we informed them that we had agreed to trade Samb elsewhere, they asked who it was and, as you can see, Orlando successfully negotiated the 3 way to get their man."


SG Daequan Cook was so excited to hear about the move to Miami, he already went out and bought an entire Heat uniform for his first interview after news of the trade broke

"You already know the benefits about getting Chris Paul, so I don't need to explain that. Daequan Cook is a kid we absolutely fell in love with the more we looked at him. He's young, be 25 next season, has good shooting skills, quality defense and stealing and perhaps most importantly, he's extremely cerebral and disciplined. Although I generally prefer a 6'7 or 6'8 off-guard in the Jestorball system, Daequan's big enough at 6'5 to fit our system. He's also still got some upside, which he can hopefully fill out by having the first full-time starting gig of his career. And yes, he will be our opening night starter at the 2 spot."


The biggest piece for Minnesota was 20 year old to be SF Stanley Robinson

"Some people will no doubt think we're overpaying for these two players. That's fair. But Stanley Robinson is somebody we very quickly determined had absolutely no place on our team. He shot 38.8% last year, 12.8% from long range. And sure, he was a 19 year old rookie, but he's also 6'9, 232 lbs. Great size for a small forward, terrible for a power forward, but yet his game is that of a PF. Tweeners don't fit the Jestorball mode unless they're 6'6, 250-70 lbs like Larry Johnson back in the day, guys with muscle.

Ramon Sessions did pretty well for us down the stretch and showed real potential as a floor general in our system, but the Timberwolves demanded a starter-capable point guard back, so we had to give him up, simple as that.

Believe it or not, I actually didn't want to give up Rudy Gay. He's developed into the perfect glue guy since my days in Orlando and I'd really hoped to hang on to him. His absence definitely leaves a huge hole at small forward, but we've got plans in place to address that issue.

And finally, Mr. Cheikh Samb, the one who started the conversation. What can you say about a guy who will one day be like a Bo Outlaw or Chris Dudley, except to say that it's very difficult to let him go, especially in a league like this that prizes defense and rebounding so highly. However, we've already got a verbal lined up that we think will bring a player comparable to or even better than Samb, so it turned out to be not as hard to part with him as you might first imagine. He'll be a great fit in Orlando, which has patience enough to start him and give him the playing time he needs to develop."


Young big man Cheikh Samb, who ignited the discussion that turned into the blockbuster

"Ultimately, I think this trade is one that helps immediately push us into the playoff conversation, even in a stacked East. Chris and Daequan are both young enough that even if we fail in the short-term, we'll have a strong enough backcourt to retool and keep challenging for a number of years. I look forward to watching those two along with Pau Gasol on the court and, as I think you'll see with a couple of trades we have lined up for after the renouncements period, we're very serious about contending."


Former NBA Live cover boy SF Rudy Gay has been traded for the second time by Jestor


It's not Boise or Tulsa that PG Ramon Sessions is headed, but the Twin Cities, where he will presumably take over Chris Paul's old spot


****

Context

The fuller trade details:
Miami Heat send
SF Stanley Robinson - $2,009,020
SF Rudy Gay - $11,829,035
PG Ramon Sessions - $1,529,244
PF Cheikh Samb - $906,300

Miami Heat receive
PG Chris Paul - $14,000,000
SG Daequan Cook - $3,240,000

Total Salary Sent - $16,273,599
Total Salary Received - $17,240,000

Minnesota Timberwolves send
PG Chris Paul - $14,000,000
SG Daequan Cook - $3,240,000
PF Jeff Adrien - $983,500

Minnesota Timberwolves receive
SF Stanley Robinson - $2,009,020
SF Rudy Gay - $11,829,035
PG Ramon Sessions - $1,529,244
#12 pick in upcoming draft
Minnesota Timberwolves 2014 1st
Dallas Mavericks 2013 2nd

Total Salary Sent - $18,223,500
Total Salary Received - $15,367,299

Orlando Magic send
#12 pick in upcoming draft
Minnesota Timberwolves 2014 1st
Dallas Mavericks 2013 2nd

Orlando Magic receive
PF Cheikh Samb - $906,300
PF Jeff Adrien - $983,500

Total Salary Sent - $0
Total Salary Received - $1,889,800

My feedback to feedback post in the article thread sums up my thoughts on the deal then and frankly, even now, except for the part about Sessions because no Nevada Dogpack players allowed on my teams. (I hadn't officially decided on UNLV yet, although it's getting quite close now).


Reactions to the blockbuster in the Trade Discussion thread:

ranger - Milwaukee Bucks GM
Great trade for the Wolves. Paul is a great player and Adrien has potential but they get plenty of value in return. Both the other teams overpaid, I think.

Cleasby - Sacramento Kings? GM - He left and came back later
I really like the deal for Miami though they get a quality all star to put with Gasol.

mgtr81 - Chicago Bulls GM
I really like the deals for the... TWolves... TWolves got a lot in return, both Miami and Orlando overpaid in my opinion.*

*He commented on several trades at once, so I ellipsised out the other trade commentary.

There was also an extended argument between the Magic GM and eurostar over Samb's comparatively low discipline that I won't rehash here. Any time you have two strong-willed, highly opinionated people going at it like that, the results won't be pretty (I admit I tend to be something of an ass in trade reviews too, as Crimson, the current Cavs' GM, can attest to).

The article feedback saw Iceman (then Houston Rockets GM), Taber (then Cleveland Cavaliers GM), donkey33 (then the architect of the Detroit Pistons dynasty), Brooklyn (New Jersey Nets GM[/b], and anywayz17 (then Portland Trailblazers GM), all consider it a good deal from our end.

I can see where certain GMs thought I overpaid, but I'm of the belief that you need to have legitimate stars to win championships - incidentally, I differ from mgtr81 in this regard, even though he and I share many other similarities in philosophy, as I may have mentioned. When I took them over, the Miami Heat had no franchise player to hang their hat on.

Now, with CP3, I had that guy. And I had the bonus of Cook, who Najira (San Antonio Spurs GM) and mgtr81 both believed were underrated by the rest of the league. Now was his chance to be a starter.

Llull Confirmed Verbal To Orlando; Jestor's Thoughts

Memphis F Robert Dozier was believed to be Miami's #1 target had they kept the pick

With word breaking out of Orlando of the verbal that sends Sergio Llull to the Magic, Miami GM Jestor held a press conference to both confirm the verbal and to address where the team would have gone had the Heat retained their pick.

"Our #1 option was always Robert Dozier. He has the ideal size and skill set that would have made him an Opening Night starter in his rookie season at one of our forward spots.

Option #2 was Joel Freeland, who one of you reported, correctly, that we were very much interested in. While we have a talented young big coming in via a trade verbal, you can never stockpile enough of them in today's basketball landscape.

With both those guys off the board by #16, a fight would have broken out in the war room between those of our scouts favoring Austin Daye and those liking Wayne Ellington. Daye would have given us a terrific glue guy at small forward and we probably would have tried him a bit at the two spot as well, whereas Ellington is the type of high IQ, accurate shooting 1-3 player we love for matchup purposes and versatility in the lineups.

It ultimately probably would have been Daye, as the questions about Wayne's consistency would have been just enough to be the tiebreaker.

But I'm happy with the direction we've chosen to go in, as you'll see after renouncements are over. We're also still trying to get back late into the first round, even if it's pick #30, and we're offering #34 and our 2014 2nd to move up."

Timing of Verbaled Trades Likely To Cause MLE/LLE Loss

The impending trade of SF Richard Jefferson (l) will be a two-edged sword

Horror struck the region of South Florida today when the Miami Heat discovered that they've made a serious miscalculation. As a result of the verbal that will send star veteran SF Richard Jefferson out to create the cap room needed for the player being obtained for the rights to Sergio Llull and one of the team's 2014 1st round picks, Miami will lose both its MLE and LLE, even though they're losing the space in the Lull and 2014 1st trade.

"It's a nightmare situation for us", a Heat staff said, speaking on conditions of anonymity due to the potential for GM Jestor's wrath. "Now, instead of getting the starting forward we were hoping for, we'll need to start L.R. Mbah a Moute or Brian Scalabrine. That's the worst case scenario possible for us."

Compounding the problem is the fact that the team will be restricted to offering minimum-salary deals only, which means they'll be forced to rely on the chance for a ring, playing time, and Jestor's media savvy as selling points to lure prospective free agents in. It also ends the talk that was brewing about the Heat pursuing G Chauncey Billups to be recently acquired Chris Paul's backup.

"We're going to have hit the pavement hard on this one", the source said. "And one of our strengths, Jestor's media-friendliness, will be a drawback, too, because the instant he publicizes any interest in a player, at least two or three teams will immediately swarm to him with more money and probably enough to steal those guys."

It's a tight-rope walk for a Miami franchise already having to walk a minefield of financial restrictions for this upcoming season. Ultimately, they may end up a team with a fantastic four in their starting five, but a gaping hole at one spot, and with a weak bench besides.

This is not the stuff contenders are made of, and this may well signal all of Jestor's carefully-laid plans blowing up in his face, leaving Miami's fans forced to be content with a mid-tier status in the East, rather than a darkhorse as the GM envisioned the Heat as.

Heat Listening But Nothing Imminent

After privately informing the Dallas Mavericks and Detroit Pistons they were giving up plans to move back into the first, suddenly the Miami Heat have been bombarded with calls about their second round picks, both #34 and #59.

"It's been crazy", GM Jestor said as his cellphone went off with another text message. "A lot of teams are seeing guys they view as potential steals about to drop in our pick range, so everybody's trying to move in.

We've had one team offer us one of my favorite players for #34, but we need to preserve as much cap as we can, or I'd strongly consider taking that deal. As for what we do if we keep the pick, I don't know yet. Our scouting department is working overtime to hunt for some hidden gems. We'll just have to see what they come up with for #34. And #59 is too far away for us to even contemplate right now."

If Miami does deal both its second round picks, that would mark the first time in basketball history that a Jestor-run team has essentially opted out of the draft completely, as #16 pick Sergio Llull is on his way to the Orlando Magic.

***

Context Notes
Things are about to get very ugly in a few posts, even more so than they're looking now. Numbers and mathematics aren't my strong suit, to the point where I have to double and triple check my work to make sure it's right. (Incidentally, this is one of the reasons why mgtr81 and I make such an effective co-commissioner team - he's brilliant with numbers whereas my strengths are in the writing realm, so we complement each other perfectly, in much the same way that Mike and Najira, who currently run the scouting for NLL, do (Mike being the numbers/math guy, Najira the writer).

All of which is a long-winded way of saying I thought I'd miscalculated my finances in this second blockbuster. Which was going to be a huge problem, as I needed that money if I was truly going to have a contending team.

Oh yeah, once again, three articles in one. The last one shouldn't surprise anyone who follows any of my DDS dynasties. One of the core beliefs of my philosophy is that second round picks are trade fodder.

Byars To Battle For Starting SF Spot

The maturity and experience former Virginia and Vanderbilt star G/F Derrick Byars got the last few years playing for Alba Berlin greatly impressed the Miami Heat

As promised, Miami Heat GM Jestor spoke regarding the first of the team's second round picks, 25 year old G/F Derrick "Double-V" Byars. The GM was all smiles as he discussed the selection.

"One of our scouts came to us after attending the playmakers' camp, raving about Derrick's passing and handling skills out of the 3 spot", Jestor said. "We already knew that he was considered a first round talent who a lot of teams were passing on because of his age. But when we heard about those skills and how he showed pretty good consistency, intelligence and discipline we knew we had to take him.

At 6'7, 225 lbs and with his skill set, he has the perfect size and game to be able to play anywhere from 1 to 3. We've heard good things about his defense and while he has deficiencies on the offensive side of the ball, our coaching staff will work with him to correct those flaws.

As of right now, he will, at the very minimum, be our 6th or 7th man off the bench, quite possibly filling in at point guard along with small forward. If he does well enough in camp, we could see him come out as the starting 3. There's still free agency to go through yet, and although we will not have our MLE or LLE, we're hopeful we can find the right players to improve our bench situation."

Some observers felt that Heat would trade down or trade out of the spot completely and Jestor admitted that was a strong possibility.

"We had a lot of teams calling us up, asking about #34, and some of them made some very tempting offers. Some in the war room wanted us to take the best one and move back or out, but ultimately it boiled down to one question. Did we really want to pass on Derrick, the consensus #1 player on our draft board, and risk him slipping out of our fingers? As you can see, the answer was no, and I'm very glad we didn't, because even if we'd taken the shortest drop offered to us, back to the Raptors at #38, he probably wouldn't have been there."

Several experts lauded the pick, calling Byars a first round talent and a real steal by the Heat. One even went so far as to say, "Miami gets one of the best values in this draft. Derrick Byars is a Top 20 talent and for him to fall all the way to #34, even with the questions about his age, is ridiculous."

The selection also gives the Heat dramatically improved flexibility in free agency and with their #59 pick. Because Byars is able to play anywhere from 1 to 3 and is legitimately good enough to be a big, capable backup point guard to Chris Paul and because he could start at small forward, the team has options.

Now, rather than feel pressured to try and find a SF bargain to start, or have a sense of anxiety about trying to find a floor general at a cheap price, the Heat can explore all possible players to find the best fit for their situation, because they have a safety net in Byars. It's a perfect storm of need meeting value meeting system and it's quite possible that he could end up having one of the better rookie seasons out of this year's class, as he's one of the most pro-ready players.

Some scouts say Byars's game reminds them of Portland's Gabe Muoneke, ironically taken with the 54th overall pick (#24 in 2nd round) by the Heat in 2010. Although the 31 year old hasn't had much of a pro career so far, despite a respectable first year with Miami, a few insiders believe Byars will have a better career than Muoneke, if nothing else than because the 25 year old will play longer and get a great opportunity than Muoneke did, even as a rookie.

Others consider Byars a more pro-ready version of Derrick Brown, the 22 year old Xavier product taken 29th overall by the Dallas Mavericks, although Brown has a considerably higher ceiling.

Jestor gave no indication on where the Heat plan to go with their #59 selection, but mentioned at least one team has been trying to trade for it, and that all options would be considered, depending on what players were available then and what trade offers Miami received for the pick.

Context Notes
I've said this before, but in most multi-player leagues, youth rules all. A lot of people were high on Byars, so it was a shock he fell that far. There is one notable instance where ageism no longer held sway, but that's quite a ways away from talking about.

Most second round picks don't get this lengthy an article from me, but with Sergio Llull verbaled to Orlando, he and my other second round pick, mentioned briefly in the next article that I'll post immediately after this one, were the only selections we were making for ourselves. Plus, you know, potential first round talent that deep in the second? Always worth chatting about.

Jestor Spotted in Arkansas During Draft

Heat GM Jestor still kept tabs on the NLL draft on his laptop as seen in the background

The Miami Heat have been one of the most active teams in the early offseason, acquiring superstar Chris Paul and Daequan Cook, lining up two other verbals, and drafting Derrick Byars and Milovan Radkovic in the second round. First round selection Sergio Llull is already verbaled to Orlando.

We caught up to GM Jestor while he was in Arkansas this weekend attending graduation at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville and probed him further about the Heat's offseason thus far.

What do you feel like your most successful move this offseason has been so far?
One of the trades that's yet to be announced. It's the one very few people outside the Heat organization know about, but it's the trade that will help us chart the course for our future just as much, if not more than the Chris Paul blockbuster. And yes, it's the Richard Jefferson deal.

Can you give us any hints on that? Where is R-Jeff headed? Even the conference would be a great help to all Miami's wondering fans.
Sorry, but I've been so amused by the complete lack of speculation that I'm going to keep that one under my hat. You'll see what it is once renouncements are complete.

Speaking of trading, your name has been repeatedly linked to the Toronto Raptors' stars, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. Pierce recently got shipped to San Antonio. Does this mean the KG to Miami rumors are true?
Well, we said we were trading the #16 pick and one of the 2014 1sts we hold for a player that would push us firmly in the competing camp. And where did Sergio Llull's rights go? Orlando.

So it's somebody from the Magic then?
That would certainly appear to be the case wouldn't it? Unless it was a three way. Then it could be any team and any player. I will say this, though. Kevin's a perimeter shooter and Jestorball calls for the PF to be an inside shooter. We're also known to be actively looking for a starting SF and if we were getting KG, we'd play him at the 3, because his skill set doesn't match what we're looking for at PF.

You're not going to give a straight answer on this, are you?
Correct.

All right, any other moves you've got lined up besides the two verbals?
We've hold extensive talks throughout the offseason concerning a player that greatly intrigues us, but we're not willing to pay the current asking price and aren't going to budge. So, that deal probably won't happen, but that's okay. Other than that, things have been very quiet. There's a team that keeps asking about our verbaled players and offered a terrific deal for Ramon Sessions, but we had to turn it down, obviously, much as it pained me to do so. Getting CP3 alleviated much of that pain, as you can imagine.

You're quite high on Derrick Byars, to the point where you're considering starting him at SF. What about Milovan Radkovic?
Strictly a bench player. To be honest, I don't know much about him. All I know is, we were very impressed with the way his game improved in the pre-draft tournament after a shaky start. That told us he has the perseverance to fight through struggles and the intelligence to adapt to unfamiliar situations, and quickly.

Why didn't you take a young player? Byars is 25 and Radkovic is 24. Wouldn't it have been better to take a youngster, at least at 59, to start preparing for the future?
When you're a contending team, you need to get the most polished players, especially when you have a hole at SF and a weak bench like we do currently. That made Double-V a no-brainer and while Radkovic was a flier, he proved his toughness in the high-pressure pre-draft games.

Let's move on to a more global topic. How do you see the Southeast shaping up this season with the rosters as they stand?
A lot of people are talking about how Charlotte's taken a step back next year. It's more like a half-step. They'll still be in the conversation for the division title next season and what's even better for Bobcat fans, they've positioned beautifully to stay relevant for the next 10 years.

Washington as #2 seed contenders is hilarious. They'll be somewhat improved with the addition of Steven Hunter, but I say at most, the Wizards win 50 games. That might be enough to win the division; the 76ers won the Atlantic last year with 48 last year, after all. But I don't see it. Not with how significantly some of the other teams in the division will have improved. As for the #2 seed? Not a chance in hell. They won't be a #7 or #8 seed or whatever they were last year, but they're nowhere near the level of a #2 seed, either. My guess is they project about a #5 or #6 seed. #4 at absolute best.

Atlanta is always the hardest team to get a read on, because of how the Hawks play. You can never completely discount them from the division title chase, but that said, I don't know that they have the star power to contend again next year, especially with Peja Stojakovic getting another year older. I will say this, though. I absolutely love T.J. Ford and if our hands weren't tied with our cap space, we would move to acquire him. Although he's a little short for what we like to see from our point guards in Jestorball, in every other facet, he's the perfect fit for our system.

The Orlando Magic will be dangerous in two or three years' team. Their GM has proven a winner before and he's in the process of forming his squad into the type of outfit that wins with his system, just as we have Jestorball here in Miami. I predict they'll break the 20 win barrier this year, maybe even get to 25 or 30, depending on how DeAndre Jordan reacts to his new surroundings.

I think we'll be very much in the discussions for the Southeast division crown. I'm not bold enough to say we win it outright or even that we're on the odds-ons favorites after all is said and done, but we'll be right up there. We *will* make the playoffs this year, and you can take that to the bank.

How do you see the East overall turning out?
Detroit is #1 of course, but picking up Kobe Bryant and Elton Brand immediately turned the Knicks into the #2 seed and no other team is even in that stratosphere.

The closest is probably the Cavaliers, who got the guy we've have taken at #5 if we still had the pick in Stephon Curry. We love Curry and would love to see him in a Heat uniform at some point in his NLL career. And then you have a whole host of other teams below them, including us.

So you don't see the Heat as title contenders this season?
I didn't say that necessarily. Once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen. That said, a more realistic prediction is that we go for the Southeast title and a minimum #4 seed this season and then in 2013 go for the ring.

What about the West?
I'm not as familiar with the West as I am the East, so I'll just quick-hit that my picks for the divisions are New Orleans or San Antonio in the Southwest, because the Spurs have a hell of a duo in Ricky Rubio and Paul Pierce; Portland in the Northwest and #1 overall seed; and probably the Kings in the Pacific, but it won't be an 18 game cakewalk. In fact, I say Sacramento wins the division by less than 5 games and not because of improvements by other teams in the division, either, although I do really like Phoenix's grab of Joe Johnson. It's because Sac-town is headed straight for a Robert Douglas-style trainwreck.

Finals picks?
A repeat of the Detroit/Portland Finals. The Blazers will make it much interesting with Big Ben Wallace, but ultimately it's the Pistons prevailing yet again. Unless Lebron James gets held hostage or breaks his leg or something.

Context Notes
God, I hated that apartment. It was dark, gloomy, and frequently invaded by cockroaches, not least because my roommates would keep leaving food out to sit even though I kept telling them to throw the food out or put it in the freezer/fridge. They'd leave it out for days at a time, and when I finally couldn't stand the smell of the decaying food anymore, and would see the skitter of cockroaches at night when I turned the light on at night, so I'd throw the food out, they'd get mad at me. The landlords were assholes and my roommates took off at the end of the year, going back to their homeland. They left the apartment a completely trashed mess, and guess who got stuck with the almost $800 cleaning and repairs bill?

Yeah, me. And the roommates were long since out of the country, with no way of getting a hold of them. So I had to foot the entire bill, when I couldn't afford it. I'm just thankful my family was able to help me out, though they shouldn't have had to. It still makes me angry and I still hold a lot of resentment over it.

Okay, sorry. Rant over. I had a lot of fun writing this Q&A - really laid our plans out and put things in context. Funny how much has changed with the division, the East, and the league as a whole since the time the article was written.

Washington, by the way, deserves special note here. Matt, the long-time Wizards GM, was one of those guys who year after year would put together teams that looked good on paper, but year after year, they would either miss the playoffs or, on the very rare occasion they did, bomb out in the first round. Talk about heartache for a fanbase.

But that's how it goes sometimes. Some GMs just don't ever figure out the nuances. Most GMs it takes a while and there's very much a learning curve transitioning from SP to MP. A very rare few transition quickly and make immediate impact.

I'm not one of those latter guys, despite all my SP experience. Remember, this was my second stint in this league - the first was a forgettable, terrible experience in Orlando where I was completely unprepared. This time, things would be different.

...Or so I hoped. But one of the big low points is coming soon.

Lawson A Lock To Leave; Hart, Araujo Still Possible Returns

PG Ty Lawson sustained a foot cramp from sitting on the bench so much during the Dan Donovan in Miami last season

The Miami Heat informed PPI and MCI last night of their intentions concerning the respective agencies' clients who are impending free agents in South Florida. PG Ty Lawson is a certainty not to return, while PG Jason Hart and C Rafael Araujo could still be back in black and orange next season.

Lawson, 23 next season, was extremely erratic and inconsistent when given a handful of starts after Heat GM Jestor took over, and that inconsistency, coupled with his smallness at 5'11, 195 lbs, spelled the end for the former Tarheel star.

Hart, 34 next season, wowed the front office with terrific shooting accuracy and good floor generalship off the bench last season. Miami, like Chicago, places a premium on accurate shooters and the traits Hart displayed, along with his 6'3 frame, mean the Heat are good candidates to bring the veteran back, if they can find the money to retain him.

Araujo, 32 next season, is a toss-up. He has the rebounding talent and good size for the post, but his love of the jumpshot is well-known to be in violation of Jestorball principles for a center and his accuracy is a touch iffy for a big man. Reports say Miami will still keep him on their radar, but also investigate other avenues.

Because of the Heat's precarious financial situation, all three contracts will be renounced to clear cap space for impending verbals. Of the two free agents still in play, Hart seems the much more likely to be back in South Florida.

Jestor has refused to comment on possible free agents, although it's believed the Heat will be looking for depth in all areas and a starting small forward, should one slip under the radar. Miami's scouts are currently scouring the lists, searching for potential bargains once free agency hits.

After Months Of Secrecy, it's R-Jeff for Asik

New Heat PF Omer Asik is also a member of Turkey's national team

One of the great mysteries of the offseason was just who Miami Heat scoring small forward Richard Jefferson would be traded for. That answer came to light today when GM Jestor announced a three-way deal that sends Jefferson to the Cavaliers for young, 7-foot Turkish big man Omer Asik. Cleveland also sends Al Harrington and their 2013 and 2015 2nds to the Toronto Raptors for the Raptors 2015 2nd round selection.

"We lacked two things in our front court - shotblocking and youth", Jestor said, "Omer fills both of those roles for us and he has potential to be an excellent inside scoring threat with superb discipline and shotblocking to go with good rebounding and defense. He's a developed blocker already and has good passing and handling for a big man, with the ability to only get better. We see him as a key part of our team, not only now, but in the future, and will do what it takes to ensure he stays in a Miami Heat uniform for years to come."

The only question surrounding the Asik acquisition is whether or not he will start. Under the roster as currently composed, Asik would be the starter at power forward, the other starting five composed of Chris Paul, Daequan Cook, 2nd round draft pick Derrick Byars and Pau Gasol, the lone holdover starter from last season's 27-55 underachievers.

But getting a promising young big man wasn't the only benefit of the deal.

"We also now have the cap space to pursue our final verbaled deal", Jestor noted. "While we're still likely going to have to fill out the roster with guys who care much more about the chance of a championship run and a shot at extended bench playing time than money, I feel the third trade in the series of mini or genuine blockbusters is the one that ultimately puts us in position to challenge for a ring."


Will Richard Jefferson find girls this sultry in Cleveland?

Jefferson, 32 next season, was the Heat's leading scorer last year, averaging 19.5 points a game in 69 starts before injury forced him to sit out the remainder of the season. He brings solid all-around ability with proven scoring and defense to a young Cavaliers team who will greatly welcome his veteran leadership.


Veteran SF Al Harrington and his awesome hairstyle are headed north to Canada

Harrington, also 32 next year, is a $9.1 million expiring contract and one who immediately upgrades Toronto's perimeter game after the Paul Pierce trade left the Raptors bereft of an accurate shooting swingman. Now the Toronto faithful can rest easy that the hideously shooting Dorell Wright will not plague the Great White North with his awful shot selection and form for 30+ minutes a game as a starter.

Reports Suggest Miami Mulling A Different Course

Was Zhuge Liang responsible for the rumored Heat change of heart?

"Those who are skilled in combat do not become angered; those who are skilled at winning do not become afraid. Thus the wise win before they fight, while the ignorant fight to win." - Zhuge Liang The Way of the General

Could the Miami Heat be making a strategic retreat? Sources in South Florida say that an unintended consequence of the trade that sent Richard Jefferson to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Omer Asik in a three way deal with the Toronto Raptors has been the inquiry and offer of players by numerous teams around the league looking to take advantage of Miami's freshly created cap space.

At least one of those offers is believed to greatly intrigue Miami Heat GM Jestor and have put the blockbuster trade that would have committed the Heat to a championship or bust mode in the next two years in jeopardy.

"I think the mood around the front office is one of uncertainty that this new team with the original verbal deal could develop enough chemistry and cohesiveness to capture a trophy in so short a time frame", one front office employee said.

This uncertainty, coupled with Jestor's alleged recent tendency to quote from Zhuge Liang and The Romance of the Three Kingdoms around the office, have reportedly spurred Miami to very seriously consider taking an alternate route that will still see the team be very competitive and in playoff contention, but with a much longer window than the first verbal.

According to the employee, speaking on condition of anonymity, the other parties in the verbal have been contacted and the basic framework of an alternate deal is in place, one that would be much less of a blockbuster, but still fairly significant for those involved.

"Basically, it seems like the GM isn't confident that this team is ready to win it all right now or in the next two seasons, even with the superstar addition we had planned and he wants to see the chemistry Chris Paul has with the rest of the guys and how Omer Asik develops before he commits to going for it all", confided the source.

The source hastened to re-emphasize that the Heat still planned on pursuing a playoff spot in the powerful East this season; it was simply a matter of whether a title was a realistic expectation or whether it was postseason experience for the squad and a possible second round appearance was the hoped-for result.

The original verbal could still go through if the other avenue of exploration runs into a dead end and the Heat have renewed confidence in their ability to contend with the result of the deal.

In any case, the already eventful Miami offseason just got a lot more intriguing.

Context Notes
The low point is coming next. As is becoming usual, three articles in one.

A lot of people bashed this deal of Richard Jefferson for Omer Asik (though it became a three way after Toronto jumped in). Funny thing is, these days it'd probably be applauded, given the massive amount of cap space it freed up.

As for the results of it, and the CP3/Cook deal, and the low point... well, that's all eventually down the road. I will say, though, on paper, Asik looked like a great fit - 7 footer with blocking, passing, and handling ability.

Still reading, by the way are roster files compatible between versions? Like can the 95-96 roster for pb1 be used to start a career with pb2?

Not officially, no. The league obviously did manage to transition from 1 to 2, but it involved weeks of two or three people manually creating the league file from scratch and running tests to try and have some accuracy, and even then there were a number of players who got a lot better and a number of players who got wrecked in the transition process.

Stunning Contract Accompanies Myles, Pistons 2013 1st

Some in the NLL community were horrified to learn of Monty Myles' new 6 year, $10.35 million base contract with the Miami Heat

With the Detroit Pistons facing a hard cap crunch, it was no surprise that the three-time defending champions sign and traded young swingman Monty Myles. What surprised the league was the Miami Heat's suddenly swerving to snap up the 25 year old to be entering his fourth season.

For the price of the Miami Heat's 2014 1st at Top 5 protection and L.R. Mbah a Moute, the Heat received Myles and the Detroit Pistons' 2013 1st round selection, in a draft that reports to be one of the deepest in professional basketball history. But Myles also comes with a negotiated 6 year, $10.35 million base contract that caused GMs around the league to cry it was overpaying for a player who some believe has a higher rating on reputation and potential than actual production.

It's even more unusual a move when one considers that Myles has yet to prove himself as a consistently accurate shooter, which is one of the hallmarks of Jestorian basketball philosophy. But a closer look at the context and situation of Myles himself, the Heat, and Jestor himself, reveal that this is a smarter play than a few critics would like to believe.

First, although Monty does not have a consistent shooting record, his first few seasons in the league have shown continued improvement, and his otherworldly work ethic and durability should allow him to continue that climb to his All-Star, if not outright franchise player potentials.

He will be given every opportunity to reach his considerable ceiling, for he will serve as the Heat's starting SF, possibly occasionally switching to SG, depending on matchups. Monty's never been given a full-time starting opportunity at the NLL level and Miami puts him in a place to flourish and grow alongside such luminaries as Chris Paul and Pau Gasol.

Secondly, the Heat were in desperate need of a legitimate three. Monty fits the bill and is already fairly well developed on the defensive and discipline end, with the potential to only get better. At 25, the same age Daequan Cook will be next year, with Paul 27 and Omer Asik 24, there is a core four to serve as Miami's foundational group, even as Gasol slips into his decline phase.

That is not to say the Heat are rebuilding. Far from it. Paul and Gasol alone will ensure Miami is in the playoff conversation and continued development and evolution throughout the season from Myles and Asik will position the team as a potential lower playoff seed in the powerhouse East, with the squad's brightest days in the future as they shift gear into a contender two or three seasons down the road.

Furthermore, had Miami acquired Kevin Garnett, as is rumored was originally planned, the Heat would have had to win a title in 2013 or 2014. And with the precariously thin depth the trade would have left the team with, and the incredibly short window, the chances of gold were quite slim, especially after the New York Knicks made the blockbuster deal to land both Kobe Bryant and Elton Brand, positioning themselves with the Pistons and Cavaliers as the clear-cut top three teams in the East, with everyone else fighting it out for a 4 seed at best.

Now, with the much longer window acquired by Myles, a move that makes much more sense with the Paul/Cook/Asik trio, there is no pressure-cooker sense of urgency and chemistry can develop in the comfortable, yet still competitive environment of a legitimate playoff-aspirant with a brilliant future, as opposed to the identity-seeking rough road of a rebuilder.

They also keep much of their depth, including Earl Watson's fair-sized expiring contract, and pick up a late first round pick in a draft that translates into a mid-first value wise because of 2013's depth. It is also worth noting that the 2013 class is reportedly deepest in big men, which is also Miami's weakest area at present and so the Pistons pick gives them another opportunity to bulk that up.


L.R. Mbah a Moute fits in to Detroit's defensive mantra

Also remember that a Moute and Brian Scalabrine on the same team is a superfluous pairing, for both are defensive specialist forwards with poor shooting accuracy. Hence, to see one of them go has very little impact on Miami's fortunes, as neither rated highly in the eyes of the coaching staff or the front office.

And finally, there is Jestor himself. He is well-known for his hatred of the free agency game, preferring to build teams through drafting and trading, and this move positions the Heat to do that better. And although Myles's contract is considerable, at no point does it even come close to Garnett's $20 million, just to give a comparison, so there is significantly greater short-term financial flexibility in addition to the longer window when looking at the two.

Jestorball also calls for a big, talented scoring and shooting guard who is a good ballthief. Myles has the potential to fill that role, and should the Heat find another starting SF option that suits their philosophy, Myles can step into what is commonly called among Jestorball disciples as the Mateen Yeaton role.

Of course, there are still some problems to be worked out. Sergio Llull is not yet on the Magic as previously promised, and while the Miami Heat still have a little bit of cap room available thanks to dealing a Moute, they're still likely to have to go the min-sal route to fill their remaining spots. The good news is, there's fewer spots and more wiggle room than the team originally thought. The two Florida teams are currently in discussions to try and get a trade done that's acceptable to both parties.

And so continues what has been a season of dramatic upheaval and big moves by Jestor, a radical re-invention of the Miami Heat that has been alternately praised and criticized, depending on the changes discussed. While the result of this extreme makeover is yet to be seen, and while the alterations are not fully finished due to roster spots and the Llull situation, one thing is clear.

The Heat will be a much better team and a much more fun on-court project to watch next season than they were at any point last year.

***

Context Notes
Annnnnnnnnnd here's the low point.

I despise people who break verbals, yet I did it here. It's the only verbal I've ever broken and I still feel bad about it (although karma would later come back to bite me in the rear on this in a huge way... but that's a few seasons down the road).

My comment about Monty Myles, who by the way is a fake player generated when the league was starting to run out of real players, having All-Star, if not franchise potential, was one of the league's favorite punchlines for a while, especially Erick in Orlando, who had it as his signature for a time.

Thing was, on the face of it, he really did have great potential. The big mistake I made was in not checking his shot preferences to see how I could make him better. I only looked his ratings and his playoff numbers, the latter of which increased considerably in his second season, so I figured he was due to be a breakout star.

And yes, much of this was me still hunting for the Mateen Yeaton of the Heat, that big SG who would dazzle the league. How this whole Myles thing turned out was quite fascinating in the end, really.

Youngish Quality Big Would Significantly Bolster Miami's Bench

27 year old PF Cedric Simmons could be the tonic to heal the Heat's post bench woes

The Miami Heat have officially extended a contract offer to Clippers forward Cedric Simmons. Terms of the offer were not revealed, but it's believed that the Heat plan to make Simmons the top reserve big man on their roster, with a few spots when his defensive brilliance is called for in the post.

Simmons' defense, rebounding and shotblocking all address areas of weakness in Miami's bench and post game and he would provide the Heat a youngerish veteran post player to join Pau Gasol and youngsters Omer Asik and Milovan Rakovic.

"He's the perfect fit for us as far as our needs and situation" a front official of the Miami Heat said, "I think it's fairly to safe that we'll be targeting him heavily to convince him to sign."

Jestor Goes On Vacation In Midst of Monty Myles Furor

Cafe Futbol in Granada, Spain has arguably the best churros con chocolate` in the entire country

Miami Heat GM Jestor doesn't mind the hot summer temperatures of southern Spain and he's relaxed as he dips a churro in a cup of thick, liquid chocolate at Cafe Futbol, one of Granada's most famous landmarks. In a way, it's cooler here than in the United States, where his trade for Detroit's Monty Myles ignited a firestorm of controversy. Yet, even with that criticism, he remains as media friendly as ever, agreeing to an interview about the basketball team he's so radically altered.

What do you think about all this flak you've been getting for Monty Myles, particularly his contract?
It's a risk. You know that, I know that, the world knows that. If it goes sideways, we may very well be stuck as a tweener team with a contract that's ultimately unmoveable. But I don't see the worst case scenario happening. I think the other extreme, the best case scenario, where Monty develops into the type of perfect shooting guard for Jestorball, a 6'7, 200+ lb 2 guard who can take over games with scoring, play underrated defense and cause matchup problems, who, when you get down to it, is an All-Star, if not a potential franchise player. And if that happens, then you have the makings of a championship contender on our team, just later than we originally anticipated.

The one thing that irritates me, however, are all these damned Chicken Littles panicking because the Pistons have our 2014 1st. Our projections are that absolute worst, it ends up a mid-1st selection. People seem to be forgetting that we still have Pau Gasol and we picked up Chris Paul and Daequan Cook in the offseason. Furthermore, if Monty and Omer Asik develop, we're situated even better to be a legitimate playoff threat. Don't forget, we've got our own 2013 1st, Detroit's 2013 1st as part of this trade, and our own and Atlanta's 2013 2nds in arguably the deepest class in history. That's a lot of ammunition to get a lot better very quickly.

And of course, we have Top 5 protection on that pick as well. So you won't see a repeat of this year. That's a gurantee.

Some have suggested that you could have had both Kevin Garnett and Monty Myles, and put yourselves in contention this season. What are your thoughts on that?
No. That wasn't going to happen. Remember, Garnett's making $20 million a year. That's a full third of the salary cap. As it was, we would have had to trade Earl Watson and Darren Collison just to fit his contract under it. That leaves absolutely no cap space to even think about pursuing Monty, especially given that there were several competitors interested in him, just not at $10 million base.

I mean, it's nice to think that it's possible, but there was no basis for it in reality. Not to mention, we would have lost all financial flexibility for the next two years and been fighting the hard cap. That's not a position you ever want to be in, especially with a team that hasn't played together, with the exception of Paul and Cook in Minnesota.

It came down to, was it better to get Garnett and make a championship run, knowing that our bench would be completely depleted and one injury would kill our aspirations, or was it better to roll the dice on Monty and, much as the Bobcats did, take a step or two back to better move forward in two or three seasons with a longer window. Obviously, you can see the direction we chose.

We've noticed Sergio Llull still isn't in Orlando like everyone expected. Can you shed some light on the situation?
I'll admit, when we decided to go with Myles, it caused some consternation on all sides. We came up with a new plan that satisfied everyone, but then one of the teams, quite fairly in my opinion, pulled back and the three way died. The Raptors and Magic negotiated separately to get their side of the triangle completed, with Eddie Sessoms going to Toronto for a package of picks, but things are in a bit of a stall here.

Essentially what it's boiling down to in our discussions is that we in Miami aren't nearly as high on the piece we would be getting back as we once were. A couple of factors tie into this. First, closer scouting has us thinking the player's likely not as good as we first thought. Second, and in some ways perhaps most importantly, we have a player who fills the same role, and, from what we've seen so far, will be excellent in that role. That makes acquiring this player from the Magic superfluous in the same way that having L.R. Mbah a Moute and Brian Scalabrine on the same team was a touch in excess.

I'm not saying a deal is dead. But right now I'd probably say it's on life support. Orlando doesn't want to have to give up more than they originally promised in the three way and we're not wholly comfortable with the asking price, especially given our recent devaluation of the Magic player in question.

So are you saying that Llull is on the block? And don't you think if you break this, it will reflect negatively on you with the rest of the league?
I won't say Sergio is directly on the block, but I will say we'll listen if other teams come calling about him. It's not a situation we're in any hurry about in any case. As it is, we'd have to include another player right now because Sergio's contract doesn't count for trading purposes, which is another minor sticking point in our current discussions with Orlando.

With regards to my reputation with the rest of the league, it's very possible there could be fallout from this and that teams will be wary of dealing with me in the future. But on the other hand, I've proven reliable and honorable in my dealings for the most part. I point to the fact that when I decided we were going with Monty, we worked hard to renegotiate the trade so that Orlando would still get Sergio and Toronto would still get Eddie, giving both partners the pieces they coveted the most. It fell through because, as I said, one of the partners pulled out.

The only other time besides this current situation with the Magic was, ironically, when I was with Orlando and there was that whole four-way deal that would have brought Marvin Williams to Orlando. The trade was voided by the Trade Union and we decided to look elsewhere, much to the rage of the Washington Wizards mostly, and perhaps one or two other teams. The same question came up then, and, as I think you've seen, it hasn't greatly impacted our ability to make deals.

What are your plans for the rest of the offseason?
Priority #1 will be signing Cedric Simmons. We've released a small article declaring our interest and are quite keen to get him into south Florida. He'll bring so much to our team and fill voids we currently have that we're really hoping we can land him. In fact, I'll be inviting him and the rest of the team here to Granada next week, where we can shoot the breeze, talk about the upcoming season, and so on.

Beyond that and the Llull situation, I think we'll be pretty quiet. Right now we have 12 guys on the roster, including Llull. If we sign Simmons and trade Llull + another player for a player or if it's Llull for a pick, we'll still be at 12 and will probably look at signing another min-sal guy or two for depth.

Are you still convinced you can make the playoffs next year in the stacked East?
Yes. But no higher than a 7 or 8 seed. This next season is about building chemistry, developing Monty and Omer and getting in the postseason to get some playoff chemistry between these guys. It's after that we start moving up the ranks.

What do you see as being critical to mount that championship challenge in future seasons?
We have to make good selections with our 2013 picks, at bare minimum in the first round, although the second round would be good as well. Remember, we also still own the Spurs 2014 1st, so getting lucky there would help too, although the West is so weak, I'm worried San Antonio can be a playoff team by then.

Obviously Monty needs to pan out and we also have to make sure we manage our financial situation closely. One of the advantages to going with Monty over Garnett is the extra money we have in future years, money that will be especially critical to re-signing Omer after this season, who is certainly going to command a significantly larger dollar amount than he owns right now.

I think we have the pieces in place to be a contending side in two or three seasons. It's just going to take shrewd management and a little bit of luck, much like what happened to establish the Detroit dynasty and what happened to turn the Cavaliers into a powerhouse in two seasons.

***

Context Notes
Two articles this time.

Simmons was a guy we really wanted to add to our bench. We had Pau Gasol as inherited from the previous team, and made the trade for Omer Asik. I forget now whether Rafael Araujo was an FA or still had one more year on his contract, but the fact of the matter was, our post depth was looking scary tenuous, with Brian Scalabrine and second round rookie Milan Radkovic the only guys that I think were locked up for the next season.

As the interview indicates, there was a huge amount of blowback from the broken verbal, even though we tried to fix it. Funny how the two instances where trades ended up going another way pissed off someone from the Southeast while I was in that division.

For what it's worth, I don't consider the previous example a broken verbal. In my opinion, when a Trade Union blocks a trade, it's hitting the reset button and neither team/GM is ethically obligated to work something else out, though most do.

Heat Players; Simmons Meet GM In Spain; Discuss Future

Miami Heat GM Jestor poured the tea for everyone in his favorite tea house in Granada Spain

Summer in southern Spain is infamously hot, Seville famous as the Frying Pan of Europe. Fortunately for the Miami Heat, they were in more hospitable environments for the offseason team meeting in Granada.

Derrick Byars, Milovan Rakovic, and Sergio Llull did not make the trip due to summer league participation, but the rest of the team's contracted players met up with GM Jestor, along with free agent target Cedric Simmons.

The group refreshed itself at Jestor's favorite teahouse, drinking Turkish Passion tea in honor of Omer Asik, much to the big man's amusement, and whiled away some time with hookah smoking and conversation, with each other and with this journalist.


Chris Paul is thrilled to be in Miami

"It's a great situation we've got going here", new franchise face Chris Paul remarked after a hookah hit, "I mean, this is a team that won 27 games last year and looked completely lost. So the owner fires the old GM and gets Jestor. Within a few months, completely different team. I like it. Me and Daequan are going to go great together with Pau, Monty, and Omer in the starting lineup and Anthony, Derrick, and hopefully Cedric here, are gonna rock the bench. A lot of people want to diss us, saying it's just me and Pau on this team, but Daequan's awesome too, and we're going to show the league that next season and the years to come."

Monty Myles, the Miami's newly minted $10 million man, voiced awareness of the situation facing him and the Heat.

"It's all on me now. Jestor made that huge investment in money and that pick in me and now I have to go out there and show I'm worth it. Yeah, it's pressure, but it's a good pressure. I love these guys already and we're gonna do really good things together. I don't know if it'll happen right away, cuz me and Omer, we still got a lotta things to learn, but I think we can step up and be the men, learning from CP and Pau who been in this league a long time and are winners, and from the coaches."

After tea and hookah, it was on to Granada's most famous landmark, the Alhambra.


Part of the Alhambra

It was there that the first note of somberness sounded in what had been a festive, cheerful gathering, when Pau Gasol spoke to me separately and suggested that he might not be in Miami for all of next year.


Could Pau Gasol's intuition be right?

"I know when Jestor first took the Heat, he wanted to make a championship team for me", Gasol said. "But we do not have Kevin Garnett and maybe when Miami is ready, I am too old to be as good as I am now. It is smart to trade me now, while I can bring a fantastic part to the team."

Pau leaned over the railing and looked out into the fading purple twilight sky, his face thoughtful.

"But if I know Jestor, he will not trade me. He is loyal to his most trusted players like El Cid to Alfonso the Sixth. His heart is first, his mind second sometimes. I think it maybe is bad for the Heat, but who knows? In me Jestor trusts, in Jestor I will trust."

Later that evening, reserves Earl Watson, Brian Scalabrine, Darren Collison, Anthony Morrow and prospective member Cedric Simmons all went to a tapas bar near the University of Granada's Center for Modern Languages for drinks and tapas.


Brian Scalabrine contemplating his words

Scalabrine, who has the longest tenure with the Heat from 2006-2008 and this past season, dominated the conversation.

"Let's face it. Me, Earl, and Darren will all be gone after next season, if we're not traded somewhere before then. It's pretty clear that none of us have a role in the team's future and that's just business in the NLL. But Anthony isn't going anywhere. From what I hear, a lot of teams wanted him, but Jestor loves him and he doesn't let go of players that are his favorites.

As far as you go, Cedric, I don't know what kind of deal they're offering you, but you've got a good opportunity with this team. You'll get a ton of minutes and this team's on the upswing. If they're offering you a one year contract, I'd think about taking it. It gives you a chance to show what you can do in Miami, then get more money next offseason."

I remarked that so far, the Heat are the only ones to aggressively pursue Simmons through media channels and the others nodded their agreement.

"That's the thing about Jestor", Scalabrine said, "Remember when he was with Orlando? Guys in the league still talk about that draft day party he threw with the Victoria's Secret models and even though he had no shot at getting Amar'e (Stoudamire), he still went after him hardcore, pulling out all the stops. If he wants a player, he'll go after him. Like now, for instance. He's given Cedric a free trip to Spain and taken us sightseeing and all that. He's like the Mark Cuban of GMs."

Although Simmons declined to comment on where he was leaning, the day in Granada, followed by a trip to the beaches of Costa del Sol, with all their barechested beauties and the the stunning waters of the Mediterranean, no doubt gave him something to think about it.

Whether Simmons signs with the Heat or not and whether Pau is traded or not, Miami will once again be an exciting basketball town and may someday soon return to the glory days of 2008 and 2009, when the team won back to back division titles.

Media Efforts; Spanish Vacation Not Enough

In the end, it came down to money. The Memphis Grizzlies were able to offer a longer contract with far more cash than the Miami Heat and for Cedric Simmons, who was struggling to decide which minimum salary offer to take, the choice was clear.

"It's disappointing", GM Jestor said. "But we perfectly understand where Cedric is coming from and wish him the best of luck in Memphis."

No word yet on what Miami will do next.

Changes May Still Be Afoot, But Starting Five Set

A rare photograph of Miami Heat GM Jestor after he went into hiding

The Miami Heat underwent a massive makeover this offseason, the change so extreme only big man Pau Gasol expects to be a repeat starter from last season. With the controversial acquisition of raw, but promising Monty Myles from the Detroit Pistons, the expectations in South Florida have been downgraded to a playoff appearance, but is that really within the Heat's grasp?

Point Guard


Chris "CP3" Paul is the unquestioned starter at the one spot and many expect him to be Miami's franchise face, both immediately and for the next several seasons. The trade that netted him and another probable Opening Night starter drew plaudits for Jestor from around the league, press, and blogosphere, as Paul gives the Heat identity they lacked.

Earl Watson is a solid, steady defensive presence who knows his role and won't take shots, but his greatest value may be his significant expiring contract. Darren Collison has drawn considerable interest around the league for his quality all-around upside and he showed enough last season that he'll likely get a look as the team's #2 or #3 point guard.

Shooting Guard


Daequan Cook projects as the starter, because the front office is in love with his all-around game, particularly his level of discipline and basketball awareness. He and Paul have experience working together in Minnesota last season, so the adjustment period should be smaller than it is. Two small knocks against Cook: He's not as tall or as big as the ideal Jestorball system calls for, nor is his passing exceptional.

A lot of teams have been calling about Anthony Morrow, the instant jolt of scoring off the bench. Don't count on him going anywhere, as Jestor overvalues him and the coaching staff will probably arrange it so that he's the primary scorer whenever he's on the court. Rookie Sergio Llull is still being shopped and could be gone before training camp, but if he's locked into the Day 90 rule, look for him to get minutes to showcase his abilities until he's traded.

Small Forward

Since I don't know what player is being used for Monty Myles, I'm choosing my favorite picture of the moment

Monty Myles comes to town with major expectations and pressures on him. By necessity, he'll be a starter, likely at small forward, although it's quite possible he could be moved to shooting guard. In any case, he needs to show huge strides this season, or this will go down as a move every bit as bad as the Paul/Cook trade was good.

The organization is absolutely in love with rookie Derrick Byars, who had a quality all-around summer league and expects to play point guard, shooting guard, and small forward as the team's do-everything sixth man.

Power Forward


Omer Asik, obtained for Richard Jefferson, is in a situation similar to Myles. Both are fairly raw players being asked to step into starting roles and develop rapidly. The difference is, Asik's in the last year of his rookie contract and is playing for a much bigger deal, whether from Miami or from another team. Currently, the thinking is that he's a part of the Heat's long-term plans, but he'll have to earn it or he'll be dealt at the deadline.

For being the 59th pick in the draft, Milovan Rakovic looked pretty good in the summer league games. He'll fight with veteran defensive specialist Brian Scalabrine for minutes.

Center


Pau Gasol, as mentioned, is the lone carryover from the previous season, but he's also the only true center on the roster. Recent rumors have surfaced, suggesting that the Heat might go after Pau's brother, Marc Gasol from the Toronto Raptors, much as Jestor did with the Lopez twins in his brief stint with the Orlando Magic.

Breakdown AreaThoughts
The backcourt is the strength of this team, both in quantity and quality. Paul and Cook are worthy starters and Collison and Morrow, to say nothing of Byars, all have their roles to play and should do them well. Small forward is a wild card, depending on what happens with Llull. It's quite possible that he could win over the coaches in training camp and Myles/Llull becomes the 2/3 rather than Cook/Myles as presently predicted.

Where the Heat are weak is in the frontcourt. Asik is much more in the mold of a Jestorball four than Stanley Robinson was, and, of course, Pau is Pau, but the Spaniard is starting to decline just a little bit, paralleling his contract, and Rakovic is the only true depth, as Scalabrine is essentially a three. Miami struck out on free agent Cedric Simmons and as of press time, they've made no moves to acquire another big.

There's a clear-cut 1/2 outside/inside punch with Paul and Pau, and Morrow is the unquestioned gunner for the second team, but whether or not the Heat score enough outside of that is going to depend on how swiftly Asik and Myles develop.

The overall team defense is, again, strongest on the perimeter, but while there's a number of good defenders on the roster, there's no shut-down guy the Heat can plug in. Also, Asik, while high potential on the defensive end, again, needs to develop it. Miami could certainly use defensive help; perhaps Llull is better than the front office believes and can be that guy.

Rebounding will be a problem as well, as again, Asik has the ceiling to be a very good to great rebounder, but isn't there yet. Gasol will grab his share of boards and Rakovic a few, but like defense, there's no specialist on board here, and that's something the Heat could really use.

The one area Asik is already good in is shotblocking and he's expected to be the team leader in that category. Gasol can still bring in it that category, but depth is sadly lacking.

There's a quartet of quality ball-thieves in Paul, Cook, Myles, and Collison, and it's good enough that the Heat should be one of the better stealing teams in the league, especially if they bring on the defensive pressure.

Passing and handling, which the front office intends to make the team's trademark, along with shooting accuracy, should be extremely solid all around, and this area is the one reason why Simmons' rejection of the Heat may be a blessing, as he doesn't fit the mold. Again Asik has the ability to become one of the best passing/handling bigs in the game.

Overall Opinions
If the Miami Heat were in the West, they would probably project as a mid seed. But they're in the powerhouse East and, much as Jestor would like to claim this is a squad capable of a #7 or #8 seed, that's just not likely to happen. The conference is too strong and there's too many question marks, in the form of Myles and Asik's rawness and in the incredibly shallow frontcourt, for that to occur. More likely is that the Heat repeat their fourth place finish in the Southeast and go to the lottery, but with a Top 10-14 range rather than Top 5 as they were last year.

And of course, one injury could completely derail them.

Final Projection: 4th in Southeast, 35-40 wins

****

Context Notes
Heh, I'd forgotten that I brought the Lopez brothers (both of whom suck in the NLL, btw) together during my brief tenure in Orlando.

Anyway, in many ways this was a very typical first phase Jestorball team. Emphasis on passing, handling and shooting accuracy, with a need to address the defense. Rebounding is always going to be an issue with the style I run, because with the preaching of accuracy, there's not many boards to be had on the offensive end.

The way I usually go about constructing my teams in a rebuild goes something like this:

1. Find a star player or two to build around, one in the post and one on the perimeter. Check with Pau and Paul.

2. Build around strong passing, handling and shooting. Check.

3. Develop a deep backcourt, preferably with players able to play the 1/2, 2/3, or even 1/2/3, at least two of whom have good stealing talent. Check.

Once I have those three things taken care of, then I can start doing the tweaking I need to do in order to build a contender, usually by improving the team defense and finding guys who can bang it down low. After that, it's a matter of the finishing touches.

I was being a bit modest with the 35-40 wins, though. I was actually thinking we could get closer to 40-45 and hang with the 7/8 playoff seed, even in an obscenely talented East.

CP3 O So Good; Byars Blasts Curry

Chris Paul certainly deserves a thumbs up for his first two exhibition games in a Heat uniform

Maybe this Miami team's better than a lot of people think.

The Heat certainly looked impressive in a pair of games that saw them beat a full-strength New Jersey Nets side 89-82 and knock off the new East darling Cleveland Cavaliers 105-94 in a road and home series.

Chris Paul got off to a banner start against the Nets, producing 27 points and 7 assists on 9/20 shooting, including 4/8 from downtown, and also scored 20 points versus the Cavaliers before fouling out. More significantly, he held young stars Derrick Rose and Mike Conley, Jr. respectively to 4/16 and 1/7 shooting.


Can Sergio Llull prove worthy of a starting spot and will he end up staying in Miami?

The Nets game also saw rookie Sergio Llull get a start and burst out for a surprising 19 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 blocks on 8/10 shooting. He also frustrated high-profile offseason pickup Marvin Williams all night long, limiting him to a ghastly 4/21 shooting, or 19% from the floor. Although he went just 2/7 against Cleveland and was schooled by former Heat Richard Jefferson, who went off for 23 points, it was still an impressive pair of games, considering Llull is just 6'3 and tiny to play the 3 even by league standards, let alone Jestorball rules.

Asked about the trade rumors swirling around him after the game, Llull replied through Pau Gasol as his interpreter, "The GM likes Spanish players. Did he forget I'm Spanish too? Whatever happens, happens. I just need to keep showing I can play well with the time and opportunities I am given."


Derrick "Double V" Byars - the man who loves V universities and the 3 point shot

Another surprise rookie showing came from Derrick "Double V" Byars who bumrushed Stephen Curry of the Cleveland Cavaliers for 24 points, including 6/11 from downtown, while limiting his much more lauded classmate to just 11 points. Byars also showed a trigger-happy long-range shot in the preseason opener, launching 12 attempts and hitting just 3 of them in New Jersey.

Pau Gasol and Omer Asik both struggled in each game to hit their shots and presently shooting 36.7% and 20% respectively, but they've made up for their inefficency somewhat by combining for 20 rebounds and 5 blocks a game (9 and 3 for Gasol, 11 and 2 for Asik). Asik is also showing flashes of all-around game, racking up an impressive 4 assists and 1.5 steals per game over the two contests.

"I'm not worried about Pau and Omer struggling right now", general manager Jestor said. "It's only preseason and while we're having trouble as a team shooting accurately right now, we're also doing extremely well with our 3 point shooting, 51%, which is better than everybody but the Celtics. We're only giving up 10 turnovers a game to 27 assists a contest and that's a damn good +17 ratio. That includes just 3 steals surrendered a game, better than anybody but the Hornets, and we're 5th in field goal percentage defense, too. We'll be just fine."

Jestor also indicated that the team is continuing its quest to improve its depth and could have an upgrade in place very soon.

Much heralded Monty Myles didn't start this set, but he did go 6/10 and a perfect 4/4 from behind the arc for 16 bench points and 5 rebounds against Cleveland.

Former Mizzou Star Expected To Be Top Reserve Big

A post-weak Miami Heat team welcomes youngster PF Leo Lyons

Although rookie Milovan Rakovic has been performing adequately in the summer league, the Miami Heat, with just a 12 man roster and only three legitimate big men total, were concerned for their frontcourt depth situation.

Enter Leo Lyons, a 23 year old drafted 58th overall in the 2010 draft out of Missouri, who has signed a one year min-sal deal. At 6'9, 225 lbs, he boasts a solid post game with the trademark good passing and handling that's a hallmark of Miami's new offensive philosophy. Although some scouts consider him a tweener, he can immediately slot in as Pau Gasol's backup and he may well get some minutes at center as well.

The coaching staff is expected to work with Lyons to better develop him as a post scorer and maximize him to his highest potential.

Despite 2 of 11 From Downtown, Paul Dominant

A successful Chris Paul Miami debut lead to a Heat win in the season opener

He was expected to be the leader of the team this season and in his first game, Chris Paul of the Miami Heat did just that.

Despite shooting 2 of 11 from 3 point range, Paul was dominant elsewhere, hitting 14/29 shots and 7/7 free throws for a game-high 37 points along with 5 rebounds and 5 assists en route to a 112-104 Miami win on the road against the Nets.

Backcourt partner Daequan Cook was just as impressive, racking up a double-double of 20 points and 10 assists on 7/13 shooting, 5/10 on 3-point attempts.

They picked up the slack for Pau Gasol, who was largely contained by recent Nets signing DeSanga Diop, and Monty Myles, who struggled to find his shooting stroke in his first game with Miami after signing a massive six year deal. He was just 5 of 17, 1 of 4 behind the arc, but did have 2 steals and a block.

Omer Asik, on the other hand, finally showed shooting accuracy he lacked in preseason, going 4 for 6 for 8 points, 12 rebounds, 2 blocks and a steal.

The Heat shot 46.2% as a team to 55.6% for the Nets, but as GM Jestor pointed out after the game, Miami didn't need to be accurate to win.

"We got this victory because we tore them up on the 3 point ball. 11/32 vs 2/7 is a 33 to 6 point differential. Most importantly though, we took care of the basketball. Both teams had 34 assists, but we had just 7 turnovers to the Nets' 18 and we also got 8 team steals to New Jersey's 2."

Miami faces a far stiffer challenge next, hosting the powerhouse Cleveland Cavaliers in the Heat's home opener.

"It'll be good times", Myles said, grinning, "And hopefully the home fans can see the type of player I can be."

Cook Turning On The Heat

Daequan Cook has been a key player in Miami's 2-2 start

Go ahead. Laugh at his 4 turnovers per game, almost four times as many as second-worst Pau Gasol's 1.5 mishandles. He'll tell you he's the team leader in assists at 5 a game and, most importantly in the Jestorball creed, he's been accurate as hell.

That's right. Daequan Cook, regarded as an afterthought by nearly all but the Heat, Spurs, and Bulls in the Chris Paul blockbuster, leads Miami in assists and shooting accuracy among regular starters. Through the first four games, he's converted at a 55.3% rate and an eye-popping 45.8% from long-range on 24 attempts. That's translated into 14.3 points, tied for second on the team with Gasol behind Paul's 27.3.

"It's something I'm really proud of", Cook commented about his first week achievements. "A lot of people might look at that and say 5 assists leading the team isn't so great, but we're a team that shares the dimes. I got 5, Monty and CP got 4, Darren, Derrick, Omer they all got 3. It's shared love, baby."

Indeed, there's an esprit de corps on this Heat team already that wasn't present last season and despite an uneven start, a change in tactics resulted in an explosive win versus the Wizards and a restoration of hope that this could very well be a playoff team by season's end.

***

Context Notes
2-2 in the early going of the first regular season wasn't bad at all, in my opinion. As the articles posit, we were really riding our backcourt and Pau Gasol to a competitive team. In short, essentially what I expected when I did the season preview.

Oh, and best comment in this chain of articles goes to mgtr81, who said "a Jestoration of hope" sounded better. :D

Heat Struggling To 2-4 Start; Rhythm Absent

Chris Paul has been the Heat's lone bright spot

Inconsistent performances and a complete team inability to put it all together have the Miami Heat with a somewhat surprising 2-4 start. Their lone good win was a home victory over the Washington Wizards and they've looked simply awful in each of their four losses.

Chris Paul has lived up to his billing, producing a breathtaking 28.7 points, third in the league with an eye-popping 50.4% conversion rate, 46% from 3 point range. Unfortunately, Pau Gasol has struggled a bit out of the gate, Monty Myles is nursing an abdominal injury, and no one has stepped forward to be the second option. Nor is there enough of a team balance to support Paul's mastery.

Among the Heat's dismal team rankings:

Rebounds - Dead last - 37 boards a game
Steals - 19th - 6.7 per contest, alarming in that Miami projected to be a steals-heavy team
Shooting % - 21st - 44.1
FT % - 29th - 65.5%
Points Allowed - Dead Last - 107.8/game
Assists Allowed - Dead Last - 32.7/game
Rebounds Allowed - Dead Last - 46.7/game
FG % Allowed - Dead Last - 52.7%
3 P % Allowed - 27th - 45.8%
Turnovers Forced - 23rd - 13.8/game

The only highlights for Miami:

Blocks Allowed - 2nd - 4.5/game
Turnovers Surrendered - 7th - 14/game

"Everybody talks about sample size and there's some truth to that" GM Jestor noted, "But the ghastly nature of our form is such that we're not even close to being a playoff worthy team. Certainly not in the East and frankly, given how we've played, maybe not even in the West. Changes will have to be made."

The revelations come after an offseason that saw an extreme makeover of the roster which finished so poorly last year. The facelift brought hopes of a playoff berth this season, but clearly, such aspirations seem but a fool's, nay, a Jestor's, dream at the moment.

Who's Hot, Who's Not In Miami Trade Rumors

Sergio Llull's departure has been rumored since the moment Miami picked him

The Miami Heat have improved to a 4-5 record and will go for .500 when they take on the Utah Jazz in their next game, but that still hasn't stopped trade rumors from swirling. GM Jestor is known for his quick trigger finger and in the wake of his vow to make changes, moves are expected.

The Desired, But The Staying

Chris Paul
A large number of teams called to inquire about the availability of the franchise face, who through 9 games is averaging 25 points, 4.4 assists, and 3.9 rebounds on 47.3% shooting, 44.9% from behind the arc. Jestor has repeatedly said Paul is absolutely not for trade. Even if the Heat were to consider dealing him, under the NLL Star Trade Restriction Rule, Paul qualifies as a 6-15 player, making him ineligible for trade until after the 2013-14 season.

The Hot Young Rookie

Sergio Llull
After Paul, the 16th overall pick has generated the most interest. Restricted until Day 90 under rookie trade rules, Llull dazzled defensively, shutting down Bucks guard O.J. Mayo in two games and holding to a combined 9 for 44 (20.5%), 1 for 19 from 3 point range (0.5%). Sources tell us frameworks of conversation around the young Spaniard have taken place with a few teams, but one scout says it'd be a mistake for Miami to deal him.

"They lack shutdown defenders and guys who can draw fouls", the scout said. "Sergio has the potential to develop into somebody special in both those areas. He has the passing, handling, and stealing ability Miami favors in its guards and his ability to drive inside and score in the interior adds a dimension to the Heat offense they'd miss if it was gone."

The Cooling One

Darren Collison
Collison was one of the most sought-after players after the draft and in free agency, but things turned quiet once the regular season hit. The 23 year old has look solid, averaging 4.9 points and a 3.0 A/TO ratio in just 12.7 minutes a game, but he's fighting a packed Heat backcourt with numerous PG and SG-capable players for more playing time. Although overpaid at $2.7 million, his contract expires at the end of the season and it's believed Miami is interested in keeping him if he isn't dealt.

The Surprisingly Popular Reserve

Brian Scalabrine
Teams seem to really like Scalabrine as a solid all-around veteran forward with a $2.5 million expiring contract, despite the fact that he's seen minimal minutes in Miami. He also doesn't care about playing time and makes a great locker room presence.

"Some of it's financial", our article scout observed. "His contract fits in perfectly for larger deals, but the fact that he's an underrated bench guy with good locker room chemistry elements has a lot to do with it too."

The Star Nobody Wants

Pau Gasol
Perhaps the greatest shock of what we're hearing out of Miami is that no team has inquired about Gasol, the team's leading rebounder and clear-cut #2 player, who's averaging 16.1 points, 10 rebounds and 1.2 blocks a game. A Miami insider was as puzzled as we were.

"We're not sure what's going on, if it's his age or what. He's eligible for trade, because his Star Restriction passed on the 12th and it's the 16th now, but nobody's even asking about him. It's funny, the guy who won't be available for another year and a half is the one getting all the buzz, but the one available now and who could immediately elevate a team to championship contender status, is the one nobody wants."

Other Trade Rumors
The front office took a huge browbeating over Monty Myles's large contract in an offseason sign and trade with the Detroit Pistons, but according to insiders, at least one team is interested in acquiring him at the Day 90 changeover, possibly in a package with Llull. A source tells us that it's one of the teams most aggressively interested in Llull, but refused to comment on the progress of talks.

Anthony Morrow was a desired commodity in the offseason and at least one contender has expressed interest in acquiring him as a burst of bench scoring. It's possible he could go with a second round pick or two to acquire a raw, but promising prospect to fill weak spots in Miami's present roster makeup.

A team is said to be considering asking about Derrick Byars, another one of Miami's rookies. Byars has struggled to find a consistent rhythm or role in the Heat's setup thus far, but has excellent versatility to play the 1-3 and only needs a settled role to be more productive.

Earl Watson is a significant expiring contract at $6.3 million, but thus far there hasn't been much chatter surrounding the still talented pass and defense first veteran.

Watson, Collison to Charlotte for Francis, Brockman, 2014 2nd

Steve "Franchise" Francis did a lot of sitting in Charlotte this season

The deficiencies were clear on the Miami Heat in the early going this season. Defense and rebounding were both major issues for a team that started the year with playoff aspirations, but who have struggled their way to a 5-7 mark, unable to give Chris Paul much in the way of help.

Now that aid arrives following a trade with the division rival Charlotte Bobcats. The deal sends reserve point guards Earl Watson and Darren Collison along with Miami's own 2014 2nd to Charlotte in exchange for young forward Jon Brockman and veteran point guard Steve Francis.

Francis, 35, has appeared in just four games this season, averaging only 3 minutes per appearance. The 13th year veteran still has quality enough and steps in as Miami's top backup point guard with two years remaining on his contract, $7.7 million this season, $7.1 million next year. His scoring talents should help a Heat bench forced to over-rely on Anthony Morrow for its point production and his contract, although overpaid, turns expiring next year.


Quality defense couldn't get Earl Watson more playing time

Watson, like Francis, struggled to see substantial minutes at five games and 3.6 minutes a contest. His greatest asset is his immediate $6.2 million expiring contract, although he has the defense, passing and handling, to still contribute in his declining years.


Darren Collison was the Heat's top reserve PG this year

The Miami coaching staff showed a lot of faith in Darren Collison this season by making him the top backup to Chris Paul but although the 23 year old former UCLA star converted 42.9% of his 3 point attempts, he didn't show anywhere close to the stealing ability he was projected to and his $2.7 million expiring contract made him an attractive option to several teams.


Can Jon Brockman finally be the answer at SF?

Jon Brockman is the key to this trade for the Heat. A 6'7, 260 lbs rebounder with great passing and handling for a forward, the 23 year old one-time Washington Husky is instantly the Heat's best defender and should provide major help on the offensive glass. Extremely intelligent and disciplined, he also has an excellent ability to draw fouls, despite hideous free throw shooting numbers.

"He still needs work on his overall shooting form, but we'll work with him on that", Heat coach Flip Saunders said, "Jon addresses some of our problems, so hopefully he can help us get things turned around."

GM Jestor was quick to argue against perceived criticism.

"People will dog us for taking on Francis's contract, but it's only for another year. After we signed Monty (Myles) in the offseason, we pretty much took ourselves out of the running for the next free agency. Admittedly we're still going to have some financial things to work out, as both Jon and Omer (Asik) both expiring after this season, but we'll get it sorted."

Left unanswered was how this would affect the rest of the Miami lineup. With Brockman a lock to take over the starting small forward spot, Monty Myles and Daequan Cook are now left to fight it out at shooting guard, with the loser becoming Miami's new 6th man.

"I'm not worried", said Myles about the shift, "Whatever happens, happens. I've just got to do my best and do what I can to help the team win."

***

Context Notes
Yes, the East was a powerhouse conference in the NLL then, much like the West is in the GAH currently, but our struggles still disappointed me. To have laid the essential groundwork for a good team and to have it blow up was more irritating than CK 2's new disabling of creating titles if they're equal to or higher than your liege's title.

I love trading. Love it even more than the draft. Free agency, on the other hand, I hate. The Bobcats tried to get us to make this deal without Brockman, but I refused, especially since it meant they were getting a huge amount of cap room for the upcoming offseason. I was determined to make them pay by forcing them to give up a young player I thought would fit quite well for us.

Paul #2 In League In Scoring Through 10 Games

Chris Paul is arguably the Heat's best offseason pickup to date

You have to wonder where the Miami Heat would be without Chris Paul.

The superstar point guard, acquired in a blockbuster offseason three way deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic, has been astounding so far this season, ranking second in the league in points scored at 27.7 per game after recent 46 and 34 point outings against the Jazz and the 76ers. In 11 games this season, he's broken the 30 point barrier five times. He's also recently gotten more comfortable with running the offense, posting 6, 8, and 11 assists in his last three games with 3 turnovers total in those three contests, an average of just one turnover a game.

His season averages stand at 27.7 points, 5.4 assists, and 4.3 rebounds on 49.3% shooting, 46.1% from 3 point range, with a 3.5 A/TO ratio, third on the team behind Earl Watson (7 A/TO) and Monty Myles (6 A/TO).

As a result of Paul's superlative performances, the Heat are hovering near the .500 mark at 5-6 and are a half-game behind the 4-4 Milwaukee Bucks for the East's 8th playoff spot.

"There's little question that without Chris, we're not in this position", head coach Flip Saunders said after Miami's most recent game, a narrow 2-point home win over the Philadelphia 76ers.

"Pau (Gasol)'s struggled a bit with his shot this season, Monty (Myles) is still adjusting to the team and the offense, and it simply takes time for a group of guys that haven't played together really to develop a cohesiveness. Look at Minnesota; they have that All-World lineup and they're 3-5. We'll be fine and we expect to be in the playoff hunt, hopefully in the postseason, by the end of the year."

Other Heat Notes
Two teams have inquired about Pau Gasol, but thus far no trade seems imminent for the Heat's #2 scorer and #1 rebounder. Talks for other players have been ongoing with different teams, but thus far, things appear to be in a holding pattern.

Miami's still seeking its first two-game winning streak of the season and don't appear likely to make it next game against the West-leading 7-2 Portland Trailblazers.

5 Losses In Last 6 Games; Injuries Growing

Jon Brockman has struggled early for the Heat

It wasn't supposed to be like this. Not a 5-10 record and looking worse and worse every game. 5 losses in the last 6 contests, with only a Herculean showing from franchise face Chris Paul preventing it from 6 in a row.

The offense is out of sync. The defense is non-existant. And now niggling injuries to Derrick Byars, Sergio Llull, and Omer Asik have been rearing their pesky heads. Simply put, this is a Miami team in disarray.

Monty Myles, the big free agent splash? Benched. Jon Brockman, the alleged defensive savior? 19.2% shooting on 5 of 26 shots his first two games. Andrei Kirilenko was 6 for 8 against Brockman and while the former Husky held Jermaine O'Neal to just 4 shot attempts, O'Neal also only played 25 minutes due to a foot injury.

Head coach Flip Saunders is in trouble and he knows it. "For whatever reason, it just isn't working", he admitted recently. In the NLL, for whatever reason doesn't cut it. Especially not when you have a GM in Jestor known for hand-picking his guys. And not when Miami was 27-55 last year despite widely considered as having playoff level-talent. It's looking like two straight seasons of underachievement.

So what can be done? Changes, certainly. The Heat are said to be having discussions with several teams about Pau Gasol, Sergio Llull, and, in what may be a surprise, Monty Myles. Houston's said to be interested in Derrick "Double V" Byars as well. We may see a flurry of Day 90 trades as Jestor once again overhauls the roster, keeping Paul as the focus.

And expect Saunders to be gone if this trend continues, possibly as soon as after tonight's game against the Raptors.

Stellar Backcourt Snaps Four Game Losing Streak

A great performance by Steve "Franchise" Francis ended the Heat's futility streak

Flip Saunders's last game as Miami's head coach was the Heat's best game of the season. But it came too little, too late.

The four game losing streak was snapped on Miami's court, the Heat routing the Toronto Raptors 117-96 on Chris Paul's 30 points and 4 steals, Monty Myles's 10 bench points on 4/9 shooting and reserveLeo Lyons's near double-double of 11 points, 9 rebounds as he hit 5 of 9 shots.

And one more player's great game.

35 year old Steve "Franchise" Francis, last seen as a regular starter with the Seattle Supersonics in 2010, was given the start and burst through with 25 points, 11 assists and 5 rebounds. He connected on 9 of his 12 attempts, 3 of 4 from three-point territory, resulting in 55 points total from the Heat backcourt.

"It's a great feeling to have this kind of game", the grinning Francis said afterwards. "People thought I was too old, that I didn't have game any more, and here I just went out and kicked some serious butt."

Miami shot a season high 62.2% and held star Raptors guard Eddie Sessoms to 15 points on 7 of 18 attempts.

Underachievement Causes Flip To Musselman

Flip Saunders didn't last long under the new regime

14 playoff appearances in 17 seasons and a brilliant victory over the Toronto Raptors wasn't enough to save Miami Heat head coach Flip Saunders job, as his firing was announced immediately after the win.

With the Heat having underachieved to just 27 wins last season and struggled to a 5-10 start this year, despite a massive offseason overhaul that included landing superstar Chris Paul, the end was nigh for the 57 year old.

"It's disappointing to have it end like this", Saunders said to reporters. "But the fact of the matter is, I haven't gotten it done the last couple years. I thank the Miami Heat for giving me the opportunity and I'm confident I'll bounce back to find another job in the league next season."


Eric Musselman now takes the reins

Into the vacancy steps 47 year old Eric Musselman, who has 3 years head coaching experience and one playoff appearance, with a 79-85 all-time record.

"I'm thrilled to be coaching here in Miami", said Musselman at the press conference announcing his hiring. "There's a good amount of talent on this team and hopefully we can get this thing turned around soon enough to be in playoff contention this season."

Musselman is known for his ability to develop players, something Saunders was lacking in. Although he doesn't have quite his predecessor's reputation on tactical grounds, Miami has yet to win two games in a row this season under Saunders' leadership.

The Heat start Musselman's Miami coaching career with a four game road trip, his first one on the bench in Chicago against Leandro Barbosa and the high-octane Bulls offense.

The new coach's first order of duty, in addition to getting the season's first win streak going, will be to try and fix a team that ranks 20th in scoring and 28th in points allowed.

***

Context Notes
I hate Flip Saunders as a coach IRL to this day because of how terrible he was for my NLL Heat. Stupid, I know, but there you are. As of this article, we really were Chris Paul and everybody else, a situation CP3 was familiar with in the lowlight of his Minnesota years.

Damn..this is epic.

Thanks. :) We're only in the early part of my first full season, too. Currently we're in my ...fifth or sixth season in the league, I forget which. In any case, it'll be a while yet before I run out of backlogged articles to post.

Radford Big Man Impresses Heat Scouts

Could Artsiom Parakhouski's name be called when one of Miami's picks come up?

The Miami Heat began scouting this week and came away greatly impressed with Radford's big man Artsiom Parakhouski.

"He's got a really solid set of skills and with our frontcourt situation facing some uncertainty this offseason, he'd be a great prospect to develop", a scout said on condition of anonymity.

Although currently not on the first round mock draft radar, the anonymous scout confirmed the presently undeclared Parakhouski would draw very strong consideration for the Heat's Pistons pick if he enters and were still there at that point in the draft.

"He probably doesn't project as an opening day starter right now", the scout admitted, "But even with his rawness, he'd be a huge upgrade over Leo Lyons and Milovan Rakovic on the bench."

Miami still plans to scout another handful of players before the December 31st deadline and the revelation of Parakhouski makes it even more likely than ever that the Heat will keep the Pistons 2013 1st obtained in the Monty Myles trade.

Season of Woe Continues

Omer Asik's career high 20 rebounds weren't enough in Milwaukee

When a team has three players with double-doubles and another player with 20 points and 5 steals, they expect to win the game. Sadly, that didn't happen for the Miami Heat as the Milwaukee Bucks finally solved the riddle of the fire in winning a grinding 89-87 OT game at the Bradley Center.

Omer Asik had a career high 20 rebounds to go with 10 points, Pau Gasol picked up 19 points and 14 rebounds, and Jon Brockman had his first double-double in a Heat uniform with 13 points and 10 rebounds while holding Joe Johnson to his first under 10 point game as a Buck on 4 of 13 shooting (30.7%). Chris Paul was the man with 20 points and 5 steals.

And yet, it wasn't enough, as the Miami Heat shot 33.3% from the field, and Asik's 4/17 and Monty Myles's 4 for 19 performances dropped them to 39.5 and 29.9% respectively on the season. The news was particularly disheartening for Myles, who'd been been a respectable 13/30 (43.3%) over 5 games off the bench and was 4 of 10 in his first game back as a starter.

"I guess it's back to the bench for me", said Myles after the game. "I'll just have to keep working hard and earn my starting spot back."

It was a continuation of a season of underachievement for Asik and Myles and indeed, for the Miami Heat as a whole.

"I said before the season started that how we did this year depended largely on the development of Monty and Omer", Heat GM Jestor said. "Obviously they've struggled a bit and so have we."

That hasn't stopped inquiries about the young duo from coming. At least one team has inquired about the tall Turk and sources tell us that despite league-wide incredulity, Myles does in fact have a suitor. Gasol has also drawn interest from several teams but so far nothing has materialized for Miami's #2 man and team captain.

Management Said To Be Carefully Considering Proposal

The trade offer just received was, in Miami GM Jestor (pictured L)'s words, "as stunning as a kick to the balls

Some teams have asked about Chris Paul, the Top 5 PER and franchise star who the Miami Heat have declared off-limits and repeatedly insisted him as such, but that was before a suitor came calling with a smorgasbord of players and picks to choose from. Although the Heat are still examining the possible elements involved, particularly the picks, to try and project their probable value, insiders say the offer is drawing serious consideration from the front office.

"It's not as crazy as it sounds", one source said. "The team's 8-15 after we lost those two games to the Raptors and Wizards and at best looks like a late lottery team. Pau Gasol's been the subject of conversations for quite a while and the general feeling is that we're probably headed towards a rebuild sooner rather than later, so why not accelerate the process while we can get maximum value for CP3 and then find a new home for Pau?"

Such a trade would necessitate the Heat filing for a T-Mac Rule exception for Paul, who is currently superstar restricted, but with CP3 gone, the Heat would unquestionably fall to one of the league's worst teams and rebuild in earnest in a year when the draft class is the best is league history, especially if Gasol gets traded as expected.

And then there's the other reason for Paul to go.

"The truth is, only Gasol and Daequan Cook fit the ideal build of a Jestorball team right now and Daequan's really only as a 6th man. Jon Brockman could get there if he can improve his shooting stroke. We even laughed before the season about how Chris doesn't match the Jestorball ideal at point guard because he's a #1 scoring option and franchise face and Jestorball sees the point guard as a facilitator who passes and handles excellently to the point scorers on the team, not be a scorer themselves", a team scout said.

If the Miami Heat do file for the T-Mac exception, expect the league to erupt with trade offers for the legitimate Top 5 player. But, as both individuals we spoke to said, it will be difficult for teams to match the proposal that set off this latest firestorm in South Florida.

***

Context Notes
Okay, I need to explain a bit about how the NLL worked during this timeframe with regards to its star players.

In order to prevent the rash of star players getting passed around like blunts at a smokeout, the league had instituted a Star Player Restriction list, where if a player was traded, they were restricted up to I think a year and a half, maybe two years from being moved again.

Where they fit in that timeline depends on if they were considered a First Tier Star or a Second Tier Star. There may have been a third tier, but I'm not sure.

On the other hand, a Star Restricted player could be moved if the team filed for what was known as a T-Mac exception, whereby if a team traded away all its other top players and demonstrated they were rebuilding, they could obtain a T-Mac exemption for that star.

In this case, I would need to trade Pau Gasol in order to be able to file for a T-Mac exemption and be able to trade CP3.

The Star restriction list doesn't exist anymore, due largely to changes to the league CBA that rendered the list unnecessary, but back then, it was still very much in force.

Oh yeah. I still have the Allen Iverson shoes I'm wearing in that pic.

Heat Reportedly Quite Close To Trade; Decision Tomorrow

Pau Gasol has been trying to best Miami GM Jestor in the beard-growing category

We've just heard that the Miami Heat are very close to a trade involving star forward Pau Gasol. Sources say that after weeks of not having offers to his liking, GM Jestor has the framework in place for a deal he's happy with if it comes through.

"Nothing's definite," said a staffer. "Both front offices are going to sleep on it and see how they feel in the morning. It's a big move for both teams, so it makes sense everybody's taking the night to think it over a little more."

The source admitted the deal will probably make Miami "appreciably worse this season as the roster's constructed right now", but that the team believes it will make the Heat better in the long run.

No one could say with any certainty how the trade, should both teams agree to it, will affect the Chris Paul situation that recently broke, or any possible application for the T-Mac exception, but numerous teams have contacted Miami about the 27 year old franchise point guard.

"I wouldn't expect to see anything happening with Paul any time soon", said one person. "Day 90 would probably be the very earliest, to open up as full a range of possibilities as able with the rest of the roster. If they do trade him, they could even wait until the trade deadline."

Failure To Check Superstar List Botches Gasol/Okafor Deal

Perhaps new glasses will enable Heat GM Jestor to read

An error by the Miami Heat botched a blockbuster trade today. A deal that would have sent star Pau Gasol to the Boston Celtics for Emeka Okafor, young, accurate forward Dusan Sakota and a 2nd round draft pick turned from submitted to NLL offices to a pipe dream after the New York Knicks filed a notice that Okafor is in fact trade-ineligible until Day 1 of the 2013 season as per NLL Superstar Trade Restriction Rules.

Jestor wasn't answering phone calls, texts, e-mails, or messages about the embarrassing gaffe. A spokesman for the Miami Heat said the GM would be largely unavailable to the media as he's busy overseeing the construction of the team's new offseason digs in Las Vegas.

It's another black mark in a season full of lows for a team that some predicted could be in contention for a low-tier playoff seed.

News of Failed Trade Fires Team Up

Pau Gasol was energized all throughout last night's game against the Denver Nuggets

A day after word leaked of the failed Pau Gasol/Emeka Okafor and pieces trade between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics, the Heat put together their best game of the season in a 113-90 win over the Denver Nuggets that wasn't even as close as it appeared.

Gasol, who would have sat the game out had the trade been legal, was a flawless 11 for 11, scoring 25 points with 3 blocks. Much-maligned Monty Myles had one of his more accurate games of the year, going 5/7 including 3/3 from 3 point range for 15 points against Jestor favorite defensive ace Ron Artest, Jon Brockman had his most accurate game in a Heat uniform, hitting 7 of 10 shots for 17 points and 7 rebounds, and Omer Asik double-doubled for 13 points and 10 rebounds. Chris Paul and reserve Steve Francis were also important contributors with 21 and 10 points respectively.

"It's great to have a game like this against one of the best D guys in the league", said a smiling Myles.

Brockman admitted the trade news inspired him.

"When I heard Dusan was included in the deal, I knew that spelled trouble for my starting spot. He's a real accurate kid and I know I wasn't as good as I could be there until tonight."

Indeed, the Heat's young trio of Brockman, Asik and Myles have all struggled early this season with their shooting, but there's also been flashes of improvement recently, particularly Asik, who is 15/26 (57.6%) in his last three games.

"The coaches are working with me and with Jon and Monty on our shooting form", the Turkish big man said. "It will take some time, but we are getting better and better every game."

Brockman and Asik in particular bear watching, as they're both in the final year of their rookie contracts and two of the most important decisions facing Jestor are whether to extend them and if so, for how long and how much.

Next up on the Heat's slate is the Orlando Magic, whom some around the league believe is chasing Paul, should the Miami star become trade-eligible through the T-Mac exemption. It's a matchup that features Jestor's current team against his old team, and the 13-9 Magic, who have played above expectations this season, are heavily favored to win.

"Full credit to Erick for the work he's done there", Jestor said after last night's game. "He took a situation that was still tough after I left it and got it turned around. Hopefully we can pull off the upset, but if not, we'll just keep plugging along and working."

***

Context Notes
I'd completely forgotten about that botched Pau Gasol trade until I reviewed the article. I was most excited about Sakota, who was shooting over 50% and 40% from downtown for the Celtics, and Okafor was a strong defensive and rebounding horse.

It's so strange to re-read about how many of my players struggled with their shooting in that part of the season. That's not characteristic of the teams I run, particularly with an All-World beast like CP3 at PG.

Current Jestor Team Beats Old Jestor Team In OT Thriller

Omer Asik was key to Miami's win.

Somehow it seems only fitting that the very first win streak for the Miami Heat this season came at the hands of Jestor's old Florida franchise, the Orlando Magic. In an exciting, nail-biting, balls-to-the-wall battle royale, the Heat triumphed 103-101 in overtime.

Chris Paul was Player of the Game as he's been so often in his career, leading all scorers with 36 points. But on a night when Pau Gasol struggled to find his shot against DeAndre Jordan, it was two other players who stepped up for the Heat.

Omer Asik scored a season-high 18 points on 6/13 shooting and recorded his fourth straight double-double with 10 rebounds on top of his scoring. And there was Monty Myles, who continued his recent good play by going 7 for 15 off the bench for 14 points.

"Wins like this are a huge boost to the whole team", said head coach Eric Musselman, who has now gone 4-6 since replacing Flip Saunders on the bench. "We need to take what we've learned and done these last couple games and keep it going."

Two Players In Last Group Of Five Impress

Miami Heat GM Jestor has been using local area IHOPs while on scouting trips

The Miami Heat are planning to get their much-talked, much-needed third option with their first pick in the 2013 NLL draft. That's the word we're hearing out of South Florida after the team scouted its last set of five players in the inaugural scouting period.

"The guys in the front office are confident about landing a defense/rebounding big with the Detroit pick", an anonymous source said, "But the opportunity to grab that elite level scorer who can be the third guy or the second as Pau Gasol declines if Pau sticks around, that's only going to be possible in the lottery."

No names were mentioned, but it's believed the franchise has its eye on further scouting two players in particular for the upper selections and will also investigate other potential prospects for that area and the late first/early second range.

Heat Go 2-0 After Llull Handed Starting Spot

(L to R) Jorge Garbajosa, Pau Gasol and Sergio Llull celebrate Spain's European Basketball Championship.

Maybe it's just the home success the Miami Heat's enjoyed this season. Maybe it's just a small sample size. But after Sergio Llull was given the starting shooting guard spot, the Heat went 2-0, beating the Thunder 94-83 and the Knicks 104-88 to extend their win streak to 3 games for the second time this season and their homecourt win streak to 7 games, their last loss in Miami on December 11th to the Wizards.

Of course, these weren't Lull's first two starts of his NLL career. They were actually his fourth and fifth, but unlike the previous stint of three games, the 16th overall pick looked comfortable, going 12/27 (44.4%) and averaging 15 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals and a block over those two contests.

And this despite fellow Spanish national team member Pau Gasol going 6/19 (31.6%) to fail to reach double-digit scoring in consecutive scoring for the first time this season.

"We've got the chemistry from playing together. Pau's playing not as good as he could right now, but he'll be back", Llull said after the New York win.

Could Llull be the unexpected key to the Heat turning it around and challenging for the final seed in the East? Only time will tell, but the early returns are encouraging.

Miami and Cleveland GMs Seen In Sin City With Pop Stars

It all started with a call from Miley Cyrus to Taber

NLL observers were surprised to see GMs Jestor and Taber in Las Vegas, cavorting about with popstars Britney Spears and Miley Cyrus. The foursome were spotted peoplewatching on the Strip, playing in the Gameworks arcade, shopping at Cesar's Palace Forum shops and hanging out at local restaurants.


Taber was shocked he actually got a call from Miley

Celebrity watchers last saw them in a unnamed club, where the two singers performed to an appreciative crowd while the GMs chatted as they watched.


Jestor brought his hat but not his monkey

One patron claimed to have overheard Jestor and Taber discussing a deal involving Pau Gasol.

"I wasn't close enough to hear exactly what they were saying, but I definitely heard Pau's name", the informant said.


Britney Spears decided to hat it up like Jestor

Could this be the start of a beautiful relationship? And for the NLL, by that we mean Gasol in Cleveland?

We'll just have to wait and see.

***

Context Notes
Those first couple weeks in Las Vegas were a real asspain in terms of getting Internet. The house I rented with three other incoming MFAs didn't have Internet access and required some major changes to the yard infrastructure to get it going, so I ended up eating shitty, overpriced IHOP once a day just to have Internet. Because going by bus or walking to the university were time-consuming as hell, given I lived way over in East Las Vegas back then.

As you can probably deduce, we didn't turn into worldbeaters or anything after hiring Musselman, but we were playing a lot better. Anecdotally, I find that changing head coaches in DDS often (but not always) results in a team improving, so I attributed our elevated form to that.

Oh, and the last article was part me being silly, part Taber and I actually having talked about Gasol to Cleveland as one of those What the hell, why not play around and see if there's anything here kind of things.

Playoffs Still Within Reach For Heat; 3 Games Back of 8 Seed

If the Heat do make the postseason, Chris Paul deserves MVP consideration

15-19 is a bit short of what the Miami Heat were hoping to have by the start of the New Year, but there's positive signs and hints that, barring catastrophe, the team could still make the playoffs. Here's a look at how the concluding months of 2012 went for Jestor's squad and an assessment of how likely the Heat will be to playing after the regular season.

The Coach

How long will Eric Musselman last with a GM known for his itchy trigger finger?

Since Eric Musselman was hired to replace Flip Saunders as head coach, the Miami Heat have gone 9-9. A .500 record may not sound impressive or playoff worthy, but the Heat's also won 4 of its last 5 games and if they could solve the 3-13 road jinx while still maintaining their stellar 12-6 home form, suddenly Miami again becomes a team worth talking about in the playoff conversation.

The Franchise Face

Trade rumors have yet again plagued Chris Paul, one of the most oft-traded superstars in the league

24.9 points. 6.1 assists. 1.6 steals. #2 in the league in the scoring. A 3.9 assist/TO ratio, which is #3 in the entire league of starters, except for Deron Williams (5.8) and rookie Ricky Rubio (4.8).

A Top 5 player by PER and perception. Shooting 46.5%, 41.6% from 3 point range, 90.8% from the charity stripe.

And yet, despite all those glittering statistics, the spectre of trade yet again stalked Chris Paul as rumors have swirled, whispering that Pau Gasol and Paul are on their way out in a rebuild.

But hold on, say others.

"Paul's not going anywhere", says Jackson Ayorinde, a UNLV and NBA beat reporter for the Las Vegas Sun. "Look at who Pau was going to be traded for. Emeka Okafor, who's 30 himself. That deal, if it was legal and had gone through, doesn't say rebuild. It says re-tooling."

"You also have to consider Jestor's personality. He doesn't like to let go of his successes and getting Paul was the one brilliant move he's made so far. I think he'd also like to be the guy who gives Chris a permanent home. The longest he's stayed anywhere is 2 and a 1/2 seasons, with the Jazz and then with the Timberwolves. He's 27 years old right now and could easily finish with a 7,8 year career in Miami. That's an important element. Plus, he's the guy who gave the Heat an actual identity rather than the confusion they had last year."

And of the fact that Paul doesn't fit the traditional Jestorball philosophy?

"So what? Jestor's not a strategist. I think he's more adaptable than most believe."

The Ultimate Swingman

Whether at the 2 or the 3, Daequan Cook has been one of the team's best shooters this season

It's hard to imagine, but there's actually been a few games this season where Daequan Cook has come off the bench and there's still chatter that in an ideal Heat setup he'd be the team's 6th man, rather than a starter.

"Probably not far from the truth", Ayorinde suggests. "The front office absolutely loves him, but this is the first time in his career except maybe back in San Antonio in 2010 where he's been asked to be a full-time starter. He's doing well, but getting moved to the 6th man spot would really signify a much stronger team."

What Ayorinde claims to know is that Cook isn't going anywhere.

"From what I've heard, teams are either really high on him or just think he's okay. The Heat really like him and his affordable contract and there just hasn't been any talk about him from what I know."

The Second Star

Will Pau Gasol finish out the season in South Florida?

Look at Pau Gasol's 15.9 points , the lowest of his career, and you might be convinced that he's on the downslide. But he's shooting 50.9% and still pulling down 8.9 rebounds and 1.8 blocks a game. Much of Pau's decreased scoring production can be attributed to CP3's arrival and to the fact that the Heat are running their slowest pace offense in years, in a league that features a lot of run and gun teams.

As to whether or not he'll go? Not even Ayorinde has any idea.

"It's tough to say. Miami was slow-playing it and waiting for the right deal even before the Emeka thing, and people tell me they're still doing that, so I think if he does go, it'll be Day 90 at the earliest, with the trade deadline a more likely option."

The Resurgent Old Man

Steve Francis credits an alternative medicine regimen for his revived play

Who knew the most valuable piece of the Jon Brockman trade would turn out to be Steve Francis? But that's exactly what's happened, as the 35 year old has 12+ points in the last 6 straight games and 10+ in 8 of the last 10, including two 18 point outings.

"He's just really found his rhythm in that 6th man spot and if they do make the playoffs, Franchise will be an important part of it".

The Mistake
This isn't what Monty Myles or the Miami Heat envisioned. A 32% shooting mark, 14% from 3 point range, both career lows and banishment to the bench as a 15 MPG player. Hardly the return expected for a 6 year deal that starts off at $10.3 million a year.

Yet, despite the abysmal performance there's still some around the league who believe Myles can be a good player. In fact, serious talks were underway that would have sent Myles and Sergio Llull in a package to a team that very much covets Llull and likes Myles as well. Those talks have since died due to the team's going in another direction.

"That had to be frustrating for the front office", Ayorinde said. "It would have meant a worse record this year and they would still have obligations next season, but that would have taken the monkey off Miami's back and restored their future financial flexibility."

Current speculation says the Heat are willing to package the Spurs 2014 1st round pick with Myles if the ever-nebulous good player comes back. Ayorinde doubts the prospect of that happening, however.

"I don't see Jestor paying just to dump that contract when he's packaging the first with it. He'll want something decent back and if worst comes to worst, he'll just sit in his office and stare at the Myles contract and be reminded of why his modus operandi has traditionally been to avoid free agency and build through the draft and trades."

Other Possible Moves
The latest trade rumors and possibilities according to Ayorinde:

-Llull has drawn a lot of interest, but if he continues playing well, he might be harder to move.

-Talks have gone all but dead on Gasol.

-The Houston Rockets were interested in Derrick Byars, but with Gary Chan's resignation, that interest seems gone.

-A team has asked about Omer Asik, but no deal seems imminent.

-Lots of inquiries about Paul, but the sort of rebuild that would entail seems more and more remote, especially with the Pistons holding the Heat's 2014 pick.

-Anthony Morrow has all but disappeared, both in terms of trade chatter, where he was a hot property in the offseason, and in the Heat's court plans, pushed further and further down the chart as a result of the guard glut. And he's not happy about it.

-Brian Scalabrine's expiring contract is attractive to some teams, but the Heat intend to put him in a larger package.

-Indications are Jon Brockman will be dealt at some point later this season if there's a market for him. On the other hand, he's found his shooting stroke a bit after being newly benched.

By the Numbers
Scoring - 21st - 92.8
Assists - T-14th - 15.1
Rebounds - T-23rd - 40.4
Blocks - T-27th - 4.6
Steals - 20th - 6.7
Shooting - 26th - 43%
3 Point - 17th - 34.6%
FT % - 30th - 69.4%
Turnovers - #1! - 12.1 - 1.1 TO/game fewer than Bulls and Cavs

Defense - 25th - 99
Assists Allowed - 26th - 26.9
Rebounds Allowed - 30th - 46.2
Blocks Allowed - T-16th - 6.7
Steals allowed - #2 - 5.7 (0.3 behind Cavs, 0.3 ahead of Clippers)
FG % Allowed -T- 25th - 47.6%
3 Point % Allowed - 30th - 40.4%
Turnovers Forced - T-18th - 14.4

Analysis
Allowing the fewest turnovers a game, a key component of Jestorball, is what's keeping the Heat playing well above the rest of their numbers. As often has been said, defense, rebounding, a 3rd scoring option, must all improve. Better free throw shooters would also help.

Still, these numbers are for the most part improved from earlier in the season and suggest that if that improvement continues, the Heat might will be in the mix at season's end.

***

Context Notes
You can tell by the rankings how badly we sucked my first full season despite my roster remodel that brought in better and better-fitting talent. But the important thing was, we were #1 in fewest turnovers allowed, which has always been the central philosophy of Jestorball when it became an actual system.

I do remember Stevie Franchise all of a sudden finding the fountain of youth. It's become a consistent theme of my MP league outings to find the veteran bench guard and resurrect him for a season or two. Oddly enough, I don't have the same luck with veteran big men or even swingmen. Just the guards. It's weird like that.

Oh, one more thing - this article is noteworthy for its first introduction of Jackson Ayorinde to the NLL. He's the reporter/scholar alter ego in that league, who you'll see pop up again. He's also very analytical and tends to be focused on the league as a whole, as opposed to Smoky Joe, the GAH alter ego who is far more colloquial, very much biased in favor of the Knicks, and rambles on sometimes about his personal life.

Broken Hand Comes In 94-82 Loss To Blazers

Pau Gasol's broken hand arrives at perhaps the worst possible time for Miami

Optimism, ever so cautiously, was starting to dawn in South Florida. Eric Musselman and Jestor's Heat were on the verge of challenging for a playoff spot, riding high on a 4 of 5 win streak.

That all came crashing down on this appropriately cold, snowy night in Portland, Oregon. Not only did the win streak end in a 94-82 loss, but the Heat suffered a devastating injury, losing one of its two stars for over two months.

Pau Gasol broke his hand when he fell after forcing in a tough shot on Pavel Podkolzin. In fact, the damage is so severe, he'll be out for 64 days.

"It was one of the worst hand breaks I've ever seen", said a glum Musselman, "The only thing we can do now is just keep going forward."

But forward is exactly what Miami lacks, the frontcourt depth alarmingly shallow after starters Gasol and Omer Asik. Leo Lyons and late 2nd round rookie Milovan Rakovic are hardly anybody's idea of even borderline starters.

Jestor was despondent at the post-game press conference.

"We'll go through the rest of our road trip, the next four games I mean, and then we'll see what happens. Honestly, I don't have to tell you that this is a devastating event and it completely changes our thinking as we head into Day 90, the trade deadline, and in our draft scouting."

An unnamed source also added that, in a further ironic twist, another team has contacted the Heat about Asik, dangling one of Jestor's favorite players from prior days in return.

Whether or not the deal will be consummated remains to be seen, but for now at least, it appears Miami's road woes are well and full in effect, the season officially lost in terms of the team's playoff hopes.

Back To Back Wins Surprise League

Monty Myles during his last year at Tennessee

When Pau Gasol went down with a broken hand, everyone, from the news media, to the bloggers, to the casual fan thought the Miami Heat's season was done.

Somebody forgot to tell the Heat that.

In a season marked by road futility and uneven play, Miami surged to back to back away wins, beating the Phoenix Suns 87-76 and the Golden State Warriors 97-95 on consecutive nights in Arizona and California.

Chris Paul was his magnificent self in both games, as expected. In Phoenix, he racked up 21 points, 10 assists, 6 rebounds and 3 steals, aided in the victory by Jon Brockman's double-double of 11 points and 12 rebounds, Steve "Franchise" Francis's 18 bench points and, in what some are calling a surprising move, Omer Asik's 10 points and 8 rebounds off the bench.


Leo Lyons has been one of the pleasant surprises of the season

It was unusual to see Asik benched and even more startling to see Leo Lyons occupy the starting center spot in both games. Lyons, taken with the 2nd to last pick in the 2nd round, 58th overall, last season by the Minnesota Timberwolves, was cut by Minnesota, then signed by the D-League D-Fenders, where he struggled for most of his first year of professional basketball.

Then this offseason, Miami Heat GM Jestor, looking to shore up a dreadful big man bench, was impressed by Lyons' passing and handling skills, signing him to a one year minimum contract. Although he was considered obscure even to most NLL insiders, Lyons has quietly improved as the season as worn on with the new opportunity and minutes in Miami.

He was 5/10 for 10 points and 8 rebounds against the Suns and held the much more heralded Hamed Haddadi to 6 points on 3/7 shooting.

Miami head coach Eric Musselman further clarified the switch in starting centers after the first game.

"We've been really impressed with the work ethic and dedication Leo's shown all season long, and we realized as we were completing our early season evaluations that he has even more upside than we originally thought. And with Omer struggling this season, we decided to give Leo a chance."

Although Lyons only played 17 minutes against Golden State because of foul trouble, he kept the 50% shooting streak as a starter going, hitting 2/4 shots for 5 points, 6 rebounds and a block.

Of course, it was Paul who won the game for Miami in Oakland, putting up a brilliant 30 points, 11 assists and 6 steals, his main help coming from Brockman and Francis again. Brockman recorded his second straight double-double at the PF spot, netting 10 points and 10 rebounds, while Francis continued his sterling 6th man play since coming to Miami with 12 bench points, raising his season average to the double-digit mark of 10.2 points a game.

But there may have been no bigger shock in these two games than Monty Myles.

The $10 million man, widely criticized for his horrible play this year, stepped into the starting small forward spot and went 4 for 8 for 8 points against Phoenix and 8 of 14 for 16 points versus the Warriors. All told, that's 12/22, or 54.5%, 20% better than his season average of 34%.

"People tell me I don't deserve the money I got and yeah I've struggled this year, but we're a team and I'm just going to work hard and do my part to get better and play better", Myles said in Oakland.

Myles also showed excellent defensive skills in the two games, holding James Johnson to 6 of 21 (28.6%) shooting and Vince Carter to 5 of 16 (31.3%).

Maybe, just maybe, Monty Myles and this Miami bunch may not be so bad without Pau Gasol after all.

Heat Now 4-1 Without Gasol

Jon Brockman's emergence at PF has been a key part of the Heat's surprising run

"somehow we lose to the heat."

"eww. gross."

No, those aren't the latest Internet memes. They're reactions by fans of teams around the league who have lost to the suddenly hot Miami Heat. Four straight wins, including most recently knocking off the Southeast leading Atlanta Hawks 95-85, and a charge up to 19-21 have both .500 and a playoff spot both within range, accomplishments deemed unthinkable after Pau Gasol broke his finger and was ruled out for two months.

Chris Paul has been his usual CP3 self, of course. But no less important is Jon Brockman, who, after being given another starting chance, this time at power forward, has responded with four straight double doubles in points and rebounds - 11 and 12 against the Suns, 10 and 10 against the Warriors, 18 and 11 against the Clippers, and 11 and 11 against the Hawks. More importantly, he's shot 50% or better the last two games and looks much more comfortable firing in the post.

One West Conference scout says Brockman's rise changes the whole situation surrounding him.

"Miami loved Brockman's rebounding, loved his defense, loved his passing and handling skills. But he didn't show any ability at all to shoot at small forward. The Heat could have gone with a lineup of Leo (Lyons) at the 4 and Omer (Asik) at the 5 after Pau went down, but they decided to give Jon another try and it's paid off beautifully.

That's also going to work out when the offseason comes, because talk around the league is that Jon's a loyal guy, with winning next, playing time third, and money a pretty distant fourth. If Miami can keep making the playoff push this year, with their draft picks in the upcoming draft, they'll be able to put a strong case that they'll be a legit postseason team next year rather than a borderline one like this season.

They've also given him career highs in minutes per game and should break the starts in a season by the time the year's over, so the front office is playing it well to keep him. On the other hand, if I'm that Miami organization, I'm scared of certain teams either price-driving or paying ridiculous sums to try and get him since he's not extension-eligible."

Why Monty Myles Is Better Than He Looks

Poor shooting may draw criticism, but Monty Myles is kingly in other ways besides money

People still laugh about Monty Myles's large contract, but there's at least one NLL statistical analyst who believes Myles may be playing better than appears at first glance.

"Yes, he's shooting fairly often and poorly", says Bernard Pope, an analyst with the World Basketball Numbers Institute (WBNI).

"But you also have to look at what he's done to opponents since getting his starting job back. Let me use Miami's last four wins as an example.

87-76 win - @ Phoenix
Monty Myles - 4/8 - 50%
James Johnson - 6/21 - 28.6% - Season Average - 43.4% - Shooting % Differential: -14.8 - 14 points - Season Average - 15.1 points - Point Differential: -1.1

97-95 win - @ Golden State
Monty Myles - 8/14 - 57.1%
Vince Carter - 5/16 - 31.3% - - Season Average - 45.6% - Shooting % Differential: -14.3 - 12 points - Season Average - 17.3 points - Point Differential: -5.3

98-82 win - @ L.A. Clippers
Monty Myles - 3/16 - 18.8%
Nicolas Batum - 4/6 - 66.7% - Season Average - 41.6% Shooting % Differential: +25.1 - 9 points - Season Average: 15 points - Point Differential: -6

95-85 win - vs. Atlanta
Monty Myles - 4/13 - 30.8%
Predrag Stojakovic - 5/17 - 29.4% - Season Average - 46.2% Shooting % Differential: -16.8 - 14 points - Season Average - 21.7 points - Point Differential: -7.7

Combined Monty Myles Shooting: 19/51 - 37.3%
Combined Opponent Shooting - 20/60 - 33.3%

"Even in this small sample size of four games, a consistent pattern has emerged of Myles taking fewer shoots at more accurate percentages than his opponents with the exception of Batum. More importantly, he's held every opponent below their season averages, with a mean of -5.2 % shooting and -5 points. And that's with the Batum shooting percentage outlier.

Essentially, Myles is a fantastic defensive weapon who, if he can improve his shooting similar to what Brockman appears to be doing, Miami can be a very deadly team."

Financial Decisions

Although he played a key role in the win over Atlanta, Omer Asik's future in Miami seems doubtful

The Miami Heat are in the unenviable position of having three former second round picks who play key roles all hitting free agency in a year when many teams are flushed with cash - Brockman, Omer Asik, and Leo Lyons. The other expiring contract is Brian Scalabrine, who, if he isn't traded, will be renounced and likely not return.

An unnamed East Conference official sees the scenario playing out like this:

"They'll do their damnedest to keep Brockman. He's showing signs of coming around now with his shooting and they already liked him. I think we'll see a Brockman/Gasol frontcourt once Pau comes back and Miami will fight to keep him.

I think they'll also put in the effort to keep Lyons around. He'll probably be given a two or three year deal worth more than the minimum and they'll hit on the fact that they gave him the chance no one else was willing to.

Asik, on the other hand, may not even make it the entire season. There's a growing number of teams asking about him and the fact that they started Brockman and Lyons over him after Pau went down says a lot. On the other hand, he did just play well against Atlanta (Ed. Note - 14 points, 11 rebounds and 3 blocks on 50% shooting against Atlanta, and he'll start again while Lyons nurses a finger injury, so who knows?"

***

Context Notes
Yeah, 4-1 out of the gates after Pau broke his hand like a boss, which isn't how you want to injure yourself. I couldn't believe it, to be quite frank. I'd forgotten that I started Leo Lyons at center, which is even more surprising considering he's 6'9, 225 lbs and I don't even like starting PFs that small.

The whole thing was weird because Brockman is 6'7, 260 lbs, so I had a 6'7 and 6'9 starting frontcourt, which is madness if you know anything about Jestorball. I will say though, in Brockman's defense, that 260 is a good weight for PFs in the system I run.

You're probably noticing a trend here - My valuation of players is in constant flux. I tend to evaluate players on the basis of 70% stats/30% ratings. Or maybe it's more like 60/40. In any case, I value stats more than ratings, though of course ratings have to be part of the equation.

Oh, and as you can see, I settled on Bernard King as the representative player for the fictional Monty Myles. Regardless of all the shit I took for his contract, dude played seriously good defense - 96.1% drive stop rate and 0.9 PA/SF at the time of this article.

My GM persona also tends to be one with a chip on his shoulder, hence why I include things like the comments from the sim results in this article. I *hate* to lose, especially since I'm something of an obnoxious, hardass, opinionated dick when it comes to discussing teams in sim leagues. Trades especially.

Matter of fact, I think my scalding critique of some trades and admittedly arrogant know-it-all attitude in the lone DDSPB 3 league I'm in has made half the league hate me. But fuck what you heard, cuz I've got a Suns team that has Steve Nash, Marcin Gortat, and a bunch of damned role players (well, Klay Thompson has franchise potential but it's his rookie year so he's raw as a ho), just a half-game behind the Clippers.

The same Clippers who stupidly traded Chris Paul for Paul George as the centerpiece of the return package. I eviscerated them for it in the Trade Discussion thread (and had a three day argument over another stupid trade - Minnesota sending Ricky Rubio to the Thunder for Russell Westbrook - dumbass Timberwolves). Clippers pop back with talking trash saying "What's this Jestorball stuff? I'm not seeing it yet" And I'm like, "...Dude, have you *seen* my roster? We have no talent outside of Nash and Gortat. Y'all should be running away with the weak ass Pacific, not having us a half game behind you."

To be fair, the Clippers are also missing Deandre Jordan, who broke his leg. But still, we kicked their butts in Phoenix and we play each other in Los Angeles next sim.

Anyway, sorry about the long tangent about the DDS 3 league. I've just been supremely annoyed there, especially since nobody comments on articles, which makes me much less interested. About the only thing that's keeping me going is I've got a rebuild starting after this season which should be fun, and then if/when I pull out a title, I can be all like, What now, haters? :D

Paul; Francis Highlight Surging Miami

Superstar Chris Paul reminded everyone of why he's an MVP favorite in Miami's most recent games

Not even the most die-hard Heat fan could have predicted this. Miami has now gone 7-1 since Pau Gasol brutally broke his finger and are 3-0 since Leo Lyons sprained his own finger, carrying their stretch of wins to 7 and the first above .500 record in a long time at 22-21. Breaking last season's win total of 27 now seems all but assured and they're a mere half-game back of the 7th and 8th seeds, currently tied between the Boston Celtics and the Washington Wizards.

The main success is, of course, Chris Paul. Ranked #4 in the recently released initial MVP rankings, he put up 29 points against Indiana in a gritty 89-82 win, 42 points and 8 assists in Philadelphia to lead a 112-95 triumph over the 76ers, and 32 points in the 114-104 home win over New Orleans. His 25 points a game ranks second in the entire NLL, 3 behind current MVP favorite Dwayne Wade.

He was helped versus Indiana by Steve Francis's 11 points, 6 assists, and 3 steals off the bench and by Jon Brockman's single best game of the season, a 19 point, 17 rebound double-double that extended Brockman's double-double streak to 5 games before it ended against the 76ers.

Monty Myles was the one with the season high in the City of Brotherly Love, scoring 19 points on 8 of 17 shooting while limiting James Posey to 6 points, the lowest scoring output yet by Posey as a starter this year. And of course there was Francis again, with 13 bench points.

Francis also had 12 points and 8 rebounds off the bench against the Hornets, but the real buzz-worthy performances were by fellow second teamer Anthony Morrow, who went 5/5 for 10 points in 10 minutes in a display of perfect symmetry, and Omer Asik, who showed flashes of being the type of player Miami hoped for when they traded him, producing 16 points, 12 rebounds and 6 blocks on 7/11 shooting.

"Everybody's just buying into Coach Musselman's system right now", Paul said. "After Pau went down, while everybody outside was panicking, Coach was saying 'Let's go out and prove them all wrong' and we've been doing that. It's great, because once Pau does come back and even when Leo and Sergio come back, we'll be a lot stronger team and be able to keep this thing going."

Indeed, there may be no better sign of GM Jestor's wisdom in firing Flip Saunders and replacing him with Eric Musselman than the team's most recent run, despite the injuries that have plagued the Heat. Musselman's record with the team now stands at 16-11 and should Miami make the playoffs, not only will Paul deserve MVP consideration and votes, but Musselman should be a favorite for Coach of the Year.

"I'm not concerned about awards," Musselman said.

"My only objective is to get us into the playoffs. If we do that, then all that other stuff will take care of itself."

Myles' Marvelous Night Marred By Asik Injury

A season-best performance by Monty Myles carried the Heat over the Hawks

The scrappy Miami Heat keep finding ways to get it done and after posting their 9th straight win in Atlanta over the Southeast-leading Hawks, have pulled up into the 8th and final playoff spot. But the victory was a phyrric one, sidelining yet another member of the frontcourt.

Win #8 in the streak came in Toronto, an 82-68 defense fest decided by Chris Paul's 25 points, Steve Francis's 13 bench points and Omer Asik's monster outing on the boards, the tall Turk racking up 19 rebounds to go with his 10 points. But the real factor was 3 point shooting, as the Heat were 8/19 (42.1%), including Francis's 3 of 4 from long range, to the Raptors' 2/14 (14.3%) downtown misfiring.

In Atlanta, Paul just missed a triple-double, netting 34 points, 10 assists, and 8 rebounds. Francis's streak of 10+ bench point games ended, although he did dish out 7 assists. He was supplanted on offense by Anthony Morrow, who led the second team with 12 points in 12 minutes on 5 of 6 shooting. But the real hero of the game was Monty Myles, who had his best game of the year, a dazzling 32 points and 4 steals on 15/23 shooting.

And then there was Omer Asik, who despite an 0 for 7 night caused by a sprained wrist, battled his way to 16 rebounds and 6 blocks as a dominant post presence. Unfortunately, the wrist sprain puts Asik out of commission for 11 days, joining already wounded frontcourt men Pau Gasol and Leo Lyons on the injury list.

In fact, Miami now has just two fully healthy players on the roster capable of playing center, Brian Scalabrine and 2nd round rookie Milovan Rakovic. Still, a team insider speaking on condition of anonymity reports that GM Jestor would prefer not to spend much of Miami's minimal cap room on a free agent and intends to use the space for trade flexibility instead.

"It's tough when you have a streak of injuries like this," said head coach Eric Musselman. "I don't know if the front office is going to sign someone, trade for someone, or just ride with what we have until Leo gets back, but we'll do the best we can with the hand we're dealt."

At least one player isn't overly concerned with the perilous big man situation.

"So what if we lose two or three games?" Monty Myles said. "We'll still be in position to get a playoff spot once Leo, Sergio, and Pau get back and me, CP, Daequan, and Jon will pick up the slack and try to keep this thing going until they're back."

Other News
Day 90 is almost here and thus far, it appears no one's leaving South Beach. The front office is, however, said to be mulling "an intriguing offer" for Gasol and there's still considerable interest in Llull, Asik, and Derrick Byars.

Some sources say the Heat won't trade Asik without getting a big man back for either him, Llull, or Byars, given the alarming lack of bodies in the frontcourt. Others believe a team will step in with an attractive offer for Llull, whose constantly fluctuating status with the Heat appears to again be uncertain.

"I don't know how likely they are to do something," one NLL watcher said. "Basically, Miami's looking to improve their bench big situation, maybe get a star or appropriate level pick or picks for Gasol, and find a younger guy to be Francis's heir apparent as the 6th man. The problem is bigs, picks, and youth are the three hottest commodities in the league, so who knows if something can get worked out or not. Plus, with the team playing like it is, the front office is likely to err on the side of conservatism if there's a split over whether or not to make a specific trade."

Cook The Latest Casualty

Last night it was Jon Brockman's turn to have a career-defining game

Although there was much to enjoy about Miami's 111-71 domination of the Houston Rockets to extend the Heat's win streak to 10 games, the injury spectre continued to haunt the home team.

Jon Brockman put up a career best 32 points on 13/22 shooting and had 11 rebounds besides. Chris Paul again just missed the triple-double with 24 points, 13 rebounds and 9 assists, Steve Francis scored 10 bench points, Milovan Rakovic had 10 bench rebounds and Monty Myles connected on 7 of 11 attempts for 19 points while holding Brent Petway to a dreadful 5 of 14 night.

But just as the win against the Hawks cost Miami Omer Asik for a week and a half, so too did this win mean another injury. This time, starting SG Daequan Cook strained his abdomen and will be out 10 days. With Sergio Llull not due back until after the Mavericks game next, it'll be interesting to see what lineup the Heat fields for that contest.

MVP Candidate Could Miss Two Games

Arm soreness could give Chris Paul a couple nights off

Despite just having 8 men suited up to play, the Miami Heat pulled out their 11th straight victory, a 104-89 road win in Dallas. But just as every win has come with the Faustian price of an injury, so too, did this game.

Chris Paul, who has so far taken 967 shots in 47 games and is on pace to break his season record of 1700 attempts set in 2010 over 77 games with the Timberwolves, led the way with 30 points on 12/23 shooting, including 6/10 from long range.

However, he complained after the game of arm soreness. Team doctors say he'll need four days to fully rest it, which means he could miss games against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls.

"I want to play", Paul said. "I hate sitting on the bench in street clothes, but Coach Musselman's telling me I should think about maybe just resting up and not risking hurting it worse, make sure I'm 100% for the rest of the year and all that."

Other contributors to the Heat's win were Jon Brockman, who had 20 points on 6 of 14 shooting, Derrick Byars with 12 bench points, and Steve Francis, who sparkled in the starting SG spot with 19 points, 9 assists, and an amazing 6 steals.

The good news is, big man Leo Lyons and guard Sergio Llull are back to full health, meaning Miami can stretch the rotation out to 9 players, even if they sit Paul as seems likely.

Heat GM Not Confident Of Team's Chances

Anthony Morrow's shooting clinic wasn't enough against the Knicks.

Miami's hot streak has cooled off due to Chris Paul's sudden penchant for nagging injuries and he'll miss a key divisional matchup coming up against the Charlotte Bobcats.

The Heat played their worst game in a exactly month, falling to the Knicks 119-90 in New York, echoing the 96-70 thrashing in Oklahoma City on January 7th that preceded Miami's 11 game winning streak that vaulted the Heat back into the playoff picture.

Franchise star Chris Paul was limited to just 10 minutes of on-court time and racked up 5 fouls before spraining his toe and getting pulled from the game.

Although Anthony Morrow did his best to make up the difference with a season-high 24 points, one off his career high, on 9/17, 4/7 from long-range shooting, it wasn't enough. Neither was Brian Scalabrine's surprise 12 bench points, Omer Asik's 10 bench rebounds or Jon Brockman's double-double of 15 points and 11 rebounds, his first in 5 games.

Steve Francis struggled against Kobe Bryant, going 3/12 and the Heat played the most uncharacteristic Jestorball game imaginable, with an astonishing 23 turnovers.

GM Jestor spoke to reporters after the rout.

"We considered the Knicks one of the favorites to challenge the Pistons in the East after they acquired Kobe Bryant and Elton Brand in a steal of a deal and they're showing that with the way they've played lately.

CP3's recent health issues, especially on top of the injury to Pau Gasol, are frustrating and I frankly don't rate our chances against the Bobcats in Charlotte next game, but we'll keep fighting."

A Miami loss and a Wizards win would put Washington a half-game ahead of the Heat for the East's #8 seed.

***

Context Notes
That 11 game win streak during the flurry of injuries was the craziest thing I've ever happen to me in any text-sim experience. mgtr81 did a great job of putting it in context, though - the only +.500 teams we faced during their stretch were Atlanta (twice) and Clippers.

That being said, I'd completely forgotten how much Brockman broke out during this run, and that Franchise kept his torrid streak off the bench going for that long. And of course Monty was stepping up, too.

As you can see in the last article, it was a tight, tight battle for the 7/8 seeds in the East right about this time. You had the Bucks, Heat, Magic, Wizards and maybe one or two other teams I'm forgetting that were in the mix.

I had a lot of fun during that 11 games. The winning just coming and coming despite Pau Gasol's injury and all the other dinging injuries we kept getting hit with it. Felt like we were playing with house money, so I just enjoyed the run while it lasted.

Expirings Swap Could Signal More Moves

Ricky Davis contemplates his move from West to East coast and conference

The Miami agreed to a trade today, sending versatile veteran Brian Scalabrine to the Los Angeles Clippers for former UNLV star Marcus Banks and unhappy veteran Ricky Davis.

Davis, 33, has been frustrated by his lack of playing time with the Red and White, relegated to a third tier bench role and averaging just short of 10 minutes a game. He should see much greater opportunity with the Heat serving as Daequan Cook's backup at the SG spot and possibly seeing some minutes at the 3 as well.


Marcus Banks during his UNLV days

The 31 year old Banks has likewise seen almost no time this season in a Clippers uniform. Thus far, he's appeared in only 22 games, averaging 5.3 minutes per contest. He'll likely be the Heat's third point guard behind Chris Paul and Steve Francis. Sources say the mutual UNLV affinity shared by Banks and Miami Heat GM Jestor is what instigated the trade.


Even increased playing time and solid performance couldn't keep Brian Scalabrine in South Florida

Perhaps no player on the Heat has had a more interesting year than Scalabrine. Originally a non-factor in Miami's scheme, he gained the starting spot at center after injuries to Pau Gasol, Leo Lyons and Omer Asik and performed so well, he passed Milovan Rakovic as the team's third big man without Gasol.

Now the versatile redhead, who is capable of playing every spot but point guard, moves to the Clippers, where he projects to fill a jack-of-all-trades role on the bench.

The Clippers will also be helped in their chemistry by moving the discontented Davis and bringing in the much more team oriented Scalabrine.

Some observers, including one anonymous NLL analyst, believe the trade indicates more trades are coming for the Heat.

"I've heard a lot of talk about Sergio Llull going somewhere and of course everybody knows the Rockets have been hot for Derrick Byars for a long time now. This is Jestor (Miami's GM) preparing for that possibility and having the guys in place beforehand. You might also see Anthony Morrow go, as he's not going to be happy about Davis coming in and taking his minutes.

The nice thing I like about the deal is they didn't give up a pick and they didn't add on more salary for next season. On the other hand, they significantly reduced their financial flexibility for further deals this season and they can't afford the same rash of big men injuries they had earlier, or they'll really be in trouble.

Conversely, they're now in a much better position to react to any further injuries to Chris Paul, because Banks is precisely the sort of surehanded backup point guard you want to have in that situation, or in case Francis gets hurt."

Cold Shooting; CP3 Absences Cause 3 Game Skid

Daequan Cook has struggled since missing 5 games with injury

The team that was one of the NLL's hottest is now one of the coldest. The Miami Heat have followed an 11 game win streak with a 1-5 mark that has taken them from the 7th seed down to out of the playoffs.

Some of those defeats can be excused, coming as they did without the services of Chris Paul (Cavaliers, Bulls, Bobcats), but as the 106-85 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs, a team they should have been able to beat or at the very least play close, shows, the Heat are clearly not the same team that won 11 straight.

"We're just not connecting right now," said a clearly frustrated Paul. "We're not playing defense and we're not shooting well."

Chief among the culprits in Miami's recent swoon are the Heat's centers and Steve Francis, who'd been reviving his career with Miami. To wit, over the last 6 games:

Steve Francis: 31/82 - 37.8%
Leo Lyons: 10/29 = 34.5%
Omer Asik: 5/21 = 23.8%

And let's not forget Daequan Cook's going 2 for 12 in the two games since he's been back from injury. That means over the last six games, those combined four players are 48/144, a 33.3% rate.

Defensively they've given up an average of 101.2 points a game and scored just 88.8 points, a differential of -12.4.

The one bright spot? Jon Brockman, 31/69 over the last six, a 44.9% rate that has him up to 38.8% for the season. While still not the ideal percentage for a big man, the conversion rate is higher than the 41.6% he shot in 47 games and 21 starts with the Utah Jazz last season and seems to signify that the young forward has matured as a shooter with experience and with the teachings of head coach Eric Musselman.

Transaction Rumors
Several teams have inquired about Pau Gasol, but so far no suitor has been able to come up with anything the Heat feels worth pulling the trigger on. With a little less than a month to go until he returns from injury and the team still in postseason contention, it's looking more and more likely that Miami will keep Gasol for a playoff push and then explore their options again in the offseason.

Sergio Llull is likewise drawing a lot of interest and seems much more likely to go than Gasol, but so far teams appear to be offering guards and swingmen, which the Heat don't need.

There's still some interest in Omer Asik, but even with his uneven play, Miami is still hesitant to deal him without a post player coming in via this or another trade, especially after Brian Scalabrine was traded to the Clippers.

The Derrick Byars saga continues and it's unclear yet how it will turn out.

Some speculate the Heat could again offer the Spurs 2014 1st in a package with Monty Myles in exchange for a much shorter contract, despite his improved shooting and still quality defense. A few Internet sites have even reported that a potential Myles, Spurs 2014 1st, Gasol blockbuster for a younger star player could be on the horizon.

***

Context Notes
I remember that trade well. I PM'ed the Clippers and asked specifically about Marcus Banks. We really needed a backup point guard to CP3 we could trust, and I felt like Banks fit the bill. His being a UNLV alum made it all the better. I also remember it because of how fast trade negotiations went - some of the fastest I've done in any sim league.

There was another trade later on that went even faster, but that's for another time and place.

Hang on to your hats though, folks. We've seen the 11 game hot streak, we've seen this current cold run, but a very important event is due to happen next time.

Can Changeover Save Miami's Playoff Dreams?

Monty Myles's stay in South Florida was a short one

Frustration mounted in Florida as the Miami Heat lost their fourth straight game, a heartbreaking 2 point 95-93 loss to the Clippers that puts the Heat at .500 and a full game behind Southeast rivals Charlotte and Washington for a playoff spot. Poor shooting again haunted Miami, save for benchmen Steve Francis (7/10 for 16 points) and Omer Asik (5/6 for 10 points).

That growing agony turned to excitement and curiosity when GM Jestor announced a stunning deal with the Houston Rockets, a multi-package affair that sends Monty Myles, Sergio Llull, Derrick Byars, Omer Asik and the San Antonio Spurs 2014 1st round pick to the Houston Rockets for centers Aleks Maric, Devon Hardin, and veteran swingman Mike Miller.


Miami's fans will be thrilled with Aleks Maric's shooting accuracy

Jestor has coveted Aleks Maric for quite some time and the accurately shooting Australian/Serbian, with his excellent passing and handling for a big, 56.2% shooting, 14.8 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.1 blocks, will immediately fill the gaping void the Heat have had for a starting center who can shoot the ball and rebound. He also has the high discipline and intelligence the Heat prefer in their players and at 24 and in just his second season, he could well see a long career in South Beach.


Devon Hardin comes in to shore up the bench

Although some would no doubt say he's overpaid at $5.2 million a year, and he's a bit too turnover-prone for Miami's liking, 26 year old Devon Hardin will nonetheless bolster Miami's bench big situation and become a significant expiring contract next season along with Steve Francis's $7.1 million. At the very least, he should be more accurate and a better rebounder than suddenly cold Leo Lyons.


What role Mike Miller will play is still up in the air

One of the biggest questions is where Mike Miller fits into Miami's rotation. Will he take over one of the swingman spots or will he serve in a bench capacity? Even if the Heat can't figure it out, it's fine, because the 32 year old is a $5.7 million expiring contract that, from all accounts, they fully plan on jettisoning at the end of the year.


The Omer Asik experiment comes to an end

An inconsistent season that saw him win the starting spot, then lose it, then be on the verge of winning it again before he was traded finally ends in Miami for Omer Asik. The monstrously sized shotblocking Turk now takes his swatting game to Houston where he'll be competing with Ante Tomic, Shavlik Randolph, and Courtney Sims for playing time. Tomic is a fixture in the starting lineup, but can Asik win the other starting spot? One never knows what Rockets GM Gary Chan will do.


Sergio Llull gives the thumbs up to leaving Miami

Taken with the 16th overall pick in the first round and originally intended for Miami's Florida rivals, the Orlando Magic, in a deal that would have brought Kevin Garnett to the Heat, Sergio Llull has had a stormy first half-season in the NLL. Openly disliked by the management, he struggled to find playing time outside of a four game stretch as a starter when he showed flashes of something. But that something wasn't enough for him to get the spot or to keep the rumors of his imminent departure from spreading. He was one of the hottest of Miami's pieces, with several teams expressing interest.

Llull faces a guard-heavy situation in Houston and it will be interesting to see just how and where he cracks into the Rockets' rotation. Houston's been shopping its fleet of guards, so if they can work out a deal in the scant time remaining before the trade deadline ends, Sergio could see much more court time than he did in Miami.


Like Llull, the rookie Derrick Byars had a short career in Miami

No rookie was initially more hyped than Derrick "Double V" Byars by the Miami Heat, but the 2nd round pick, despite his versatility, passing and handling, and defensive toughness, just couldn't find a settled place in the rotation. He was also one of the players most coveted by Chan and the Rockets and now they finally get him, just as the Heat finally land Maric.


Monty Myles, the much maligned sign and trade splash

And then of course there's Monty Myles. The huge offseason grab from the Detroit Pistons, paid an even huger contract. After some bouncing around, he finally won the starting small forward spot, showing off some excellent defensive ability and gradual improvement in his shooting.

But even so, the front office realized it made a terrible mistake in committing that much money to a player that wasn't living up to Jestor's infamous words that "Monty Myles has All-Star, if not franchise potential."

And so the Miami Heat are paying the price of their last 2014 1st round pick, that of the San Antonio Spurs, to be rid of that overwhelming financial commitment. How Monty fits into Houston's plans, or indeed any of the players, is something no one knows.

But somehow we don't think we've seen the last of the Rockets trading during this deadline period.

The Financial Impacts for the Heat
Obviously the biggest financial impact of this trade was getting rid of Myles's contract, a lifting of a crippling burden. But the financial benefits could come quicker than just the future years the Heat no longer have to pay. To wit:

Expiring this season and won't return
Mike Miler - $5.7 million

Expiring next season and either won't return or will be back at a much reduced salary
Steve Francis - $7.1 million
Devon Hardin - $5.2 million

That's $18 million coming off the books in the next two seasons, positioning Miami to become free agent players should they choose to again, or, far more likely, they'll reverse the role they played in this deal and take on contracts for sufficient draft pick renumeration.

Of course, some of that money will go towards an attempt to re-sign Jon Brockman this offseason, and Miller's expiring should allow them to do that without endangering the team's financial future.

But there's another, much less publicized financial aspect to it. Rather than try to figure out what to do with Omer Asik this offseason, the Heat now have a locked-in, on his four year rookie contract Aleks Maric, a player they'll doubtless give an extension to when the time comes. It's excellent cost control for the next two seasons and allows them to have some projection of future years.

The Draft Impacts for the Heat
Obviously Miami is now out of the 2014 first round, but the Heat still have their own 2013 1st round pick, and, more importantly, the Pistons' 2013 1st round pick to find young players to improve their team.

The San Antonio Spurs are already contenders for the Southwest crown and in a still poor West conference, with a year of development under Ricky Rubio and DeJuan Blair's belts, plus their own 2013 1st selection, they should be in good shape to be a mid-playoff seed or Southwest champions next season.

The Starting Line-Up Impacts for the Heat
We know that Chris Paul is the point guard, Jon Brockman is the power forward and Aleks Maric is the center for now. Where it gets interesting is the swingman spots, now that Myles is gone and Daequan Cook has struggled recently.

What combination of Cook, Ricky Davis, Mike Miller, or even Steve Francis fills in those two spots? All four players have their pluses and minuses, although Francis is strictly under consideration for the SG spot.

It's one of the questions the Miami Heat will be asking themselves most intensely over the All-Star break.

And that's without considering what happens when Pau Gasol comes back from injury and affects the frontcourt situation.

Saga of Injuries Derailing Miami's Season

A sight all too common this season for Heat fans

The rush of an 106-95 road win in Chicago that snapped a four game losing streak was quickly undone by a 111-104 loss to the Pacers the next night, a defeat doubly demoralizing due to severe sprains to backcourt starters Chris Paul and Daequan Cook.

Paul beautifully carved up the Bulls for 41 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists and was aided in the win by Jon Brockman's 15 points, 12 rebounds and 5 assists. Leo Lyons just missed a double-double, picking up 9 points and 11 rebounds.

But then exhaustion set in Indiana, as the team allowed the Pacers to shoot 60.5%, thus ruining Monty Myles's excellent 9 of 14 for 21 points and 6th man Steve Francis's stellar 18 bench points on 7/9 shooting. Although Paul ended with 22 points and 10 assists, he needed 29 shots and converted just 9 of them, hampered as he was by a sprained toe.

That sprain is so severe, it could keep him out of the lineup for two weeks and force him to miss as many as 6 games, a danger sign for the Heat, who have been 0-3 whenever he hasn't been in the line up.

Cook's injury may keep him out a week and a half, and for possibly as many as 4 games. That means the Heat will have to go with an entirely new starting backcourt for the next week and then need to decide what to do when Cook comes back.

GM Jestor publicly apologized to Gary Chan for starting Monty Myles and playing Omer Asik and other pieces in the currently delayed blockbuster.

"I misplaced our schedule and didn't realize we were playing. I always try and sit the guys who are on their way out once we fax the paperwork to league offices."


The pressure will be on Aleks Maric to prove his worth right away

That turned out to be fair, after all, as Aleks Maric, the center piece of the deal for the Heat, also played. He dominated the Thunder for 32 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks on 14 of 19 shooting and was 6/7 for 14 points against the Spurs, both losses.

Maric will be expected to be a major contributor once he comes to the team, especially on the offensive end in the wake of the backcourt injuries and the en masse` departure of players to Houston.

Can the Heat still make the playoffs? Currently they're 28-28 and the Washington Wizards and Charlotte Bobcats are a game and a half ahead of them at 28-25 and 27-24 respectively. The Milwaukee Bucks are also .500 at 26-26 while the hard-charging New Jersey Nets are a mere half-game behind the Heat at 27-28.

"It's possible", said one analyst, "But they've played 56 games so far, more than any other playoff contender. They absolutely can not afford to have another extended losing streak and they need to start winning games or they're finished."

"Cook and CP3's injuries really come at a bad time for them and whether or not they'll be able to roll along depends on how quickly the Maric trade gets processed and how quickly the new lineup they'll have to throw together gels.

In all honesty, I don't see them making it. They've played too many games relative to their opponents and have too many injury and potential impending chemistry problems to catch up. That won't stop Jestor from trying, though, and even if they miss the playoffs this year, they should be in excellent shape to get there next season."

***

Context Notes
Massive blockbuster of a trade. I essentially bet money that the Spurs would be a playoff team in the 2013 season prior to the 2014 draft, even though there was a distinct possibility they would be in rebuild mode by then, if I remember right.

Some reactions:

"Love it for you, well done. Maric is a fantastic player, a good guy to pair next to (or even surpass should you move him) Gasol." - Wizards

"I like this deal for both. that Spurs pick could turn out to be awesome. I have talk with Miami but I dont want be involve with anything named Monty Miles that contract is just one ofthe worst in the NLL." - New Jersey

"Talent wise I think the deal is balanced, although position wise it's better for the Heat (more guards in Houston).

Mike Miller can be really good for your team, so it can be good for you if he picks his option up. Hardin is a player that can be interesting in the right system." - Chicago

Yeah I misread it that Miller had a PO but that was okay. Wasn't going to kill me financially or anything.

The general consensus was that Miami won the trade overall, but they felt it was quite close, due mainly to Llull and the Spurs 2014 first. Then there was this reaction in the trade discussion thread:

"Also, as for the Miami deal...fantastic for Miami. Why in god's name would you do that Gary besides the 2014 first you've mortgaged a lot.

I think the Rockets-Heat deal is pretty questionable too...horrible contract, giving up the best prospect in the deal, etc." - Orlando (our main rivals and the GM I warred most with in terms of personality clashing)

But that wasn't the only big news. The trade got deleted because of what happened, but there was an Indiana/Philadelphia trade that was so lopsided in favor of the Pacers, the commissioners launched an investigation and discovered that the 76ers GM, who had just joined, knew the Pacers' GM IRL and had joined to help Indiana with trades like this. Needless to say, both GMs were immediately thrown out of the league and banned, with Indiana's GM's posts also wiped off the face of the earth.

Gotta love sim league drama and people who cheat to win in it.

Oh, and CP3/Cook getting hurt? Made me wonder if I was going to get through the season with even one noteworthy player injury-free.

Miller, Maric Star In Florida Wars

New Miami C Aleks Maric works on his wingspan at his first dinner in South Florida

One of the big questions facing the Miami Heat was how they were going to fare with a radical lineup change necessitated by injuries to Chris Paul and Daequan Cook, and a massive trade that sent Monty Myles, Sergio Llull, Derrick Byars, and Omer Asik along with the San Antonio Spurs 2014 1st to the Houston Rockets for Aleks Maric, Devon Hardin and Mike Miller.

The answer so far is, not that bad, but not that great either.

In a highly publicized doubleheader with the Orlando Magic, a Florida rivalry made all the more intense because of Jestor's brief tenure in the Magic Kingdom and Orlando GM Erick Senberg's criticizing of Jestor's Magic regime, the teams split, the home court the deciding factor in each game.


Mike Miller's Miami debut wowed the fans

Game #1 (in Miami)
The Miami Heat ran out with a somewhat surprising starting lineup of:

PG Marcus Banks
SG Mike Miller
SF Ricky Davis
PF Jon Brockman
C Aleks Maric

Aleks Maric, the centerpiece of the trade, had a bad debut. He hit just 3 of 12 attempts with 9 rebounds and 2 blocks, hardly the sort of star return or accuracy the Heat were expecting.

Instead, it was Mike Miller who stepped up as the best newcomer. Showing off the shooting form he's built his professional career on, he hit 8 of 11 shots, 5 of 8 from three point range, for 27 points. Most importantly, he held Demar Derozan, the Magic's superstar, to a draw in the points category.

The bench also played a key role in Miami's 107-94 win. Anthony Morrow was 5 of 7 for 10 points and Steve Francis, despite an off shooting night, still compiled 12 points and 5 rebounds off the bench.

Game #2 (in Orlando)
Miami lost the back end 93-77 due to the following reasons:
1. Nobody gave Aleks Maric, who broke out with 29 points and 16 rebounds on 11/23 shooting, any help. The most egregious violators were Jon Brockman (1/10) and Mike Miller (4/15).

2. It was the Magic's reserves who broke out this game. Wayne Ellington doubled for 16 points, 13 assists and 4 steals, and Jeff Adrien dropped in 13 points and 3 blocks.

Coming later today: A look at the Florida Wars' future.

Florida's Hoops Future


No doubt who Miami's current and future star is, although Chris Paul needs to take Miami to the playoffs if he wants to win the MVP award

The Orlando/Miami series gives us an opportunity to take a look at the short and long-term futures of the Miami Heat's starting lineup as well as the Florida Wars rivalry.

Projecting the Future #1 - Miami's Starting Lineup
Because of the Heat's injury situation and the trade, you can expect to see more changes in Miami's lineup over the next two weeks. Let's look at a position by position breakdown.

Point Guard
Last two games: Marcus Banks
Time Until CP3 Returns: 10 days
Games Without CP3: 4 (@ Nets, vs. Kings, @ Cavs, vs. 76ers)
Possible Candidates: Banks, Francis

It's a tough stretch of four games coming up without CP3, with likely guaranteed losses against the Kings and the Cavaliers and 50/50 games against New Jersey and Philadelphia.

Against Orlando, our two candidates did the following:
Banks: 7/20 (35%) - 8.5 PPG, 6 APG, 2 RPG, 2.5 SPG, 2 TOPG, 3 A/TO
Francis: 6/15 (40%) - 10 PPG, 5.5 APG, 3.5 RPG, 0.5 SPG, 4 TOPG, 1.4 A/TO

Analysis
It's still a coin flip as to which player will start in any given game. Eric Musselman will no doubt take a close look at each opponent. That said, Francis didn't fare well as a starter and Jestorball's emphasis on ball security and the UNLV factor both suggest Banks is more likely to keep the starting spot.

Shooting Guard
Last 2 games: Mike Miller
Time Until Daequan Cook returns: 5 days
Games without Cook: 2 (@ Nets, vs. Kings)
Candidates: Miller, Francis, Cook, Ricky Davis

The two spot is the most muddled in Miami's lineup, especially after Cook comes back from injury. This one's going to cause a lot of tossing and turning for the coaching staff.

Against Orlando:
Miller: 12/26 (46.1%), 17.5 PPG, 3.5 APG, 4 RPG, 2.5 SPG, 2 TOPG
Francis: 6/15 (40%) - 10 PPG, 5.5 APG, 3.5 RPG, 0.5 SPG, 4 TOPG
Davis: 9/18 (50%) - 10.5 PPG, 2.5 APG, 3 RPG, 2.5 SPG, 1.5 TOPG

Analysis
It's safe to say that Davis will have a starting spot for the next two games. Upon further review, it's also safe to say that Francis won't be starting at shooting guard without CP3, because the Heat are thin at PG-capable players after trading Llull and Byars. Essentially the next two games are coin-flips between Miller and Davis starting at the 2 and 3, but where it gets interesting is when Cook comes back.

Cook has been one of Miami's most accurate shooters, but after his injury before the most recent one, he struggled out of the gate and although he eventually found his shooting stroke before getting hurt again, he was just 7/26 (26.9%) from long-range, and he'd been shooting over 40% in that category.

What it boils down to is how well Miller and Davis play over the next two games. If they can show they deserve to keep their starting spots, Cook will move in to the 6th man role. If one of them falters, Cook steps back into the starting five.

Small Forward
See the SG discussion, because it's the same candidates and all three players have proved capable of playing both spots.

Power Forward
Last two games: Jon Brockman
Time until Pau Gasol returns: 14 days
Games Missed: 6 (@ Nets, vs. Kings, @ Cavs, vs. 76ers, vs. Timberwolves, vs. Nets)
Candidates: Brockman, Devon Hardin

We all know Gasol is going to slide into either the 4 or the 5 when he returns, so there's no issue for the incumbent starter like with Cook. Where it gets interesting is in the power forward competition, where Brockman's inconsistent shooting (although improved) is matching up against a Hardin that might be better than the Heat first tought.

Against Orlando:
Brockman: 5/21 (23.8%) - 9.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 0 BPG, 1 TOPG
Hardin: 5/7 (71.4%) - 6 PPG, 2 RPG, 1 APG, 0.5 BPG, 0 TOPG

Analysis
Keep in mind that Hardin's statistics only come with 12.5 MPG, so it's a little hard to judge accurately. That said, Hardin's three inches taller than Brockman, a better free throw shooter and shotblocker, and a much more traditional post player in the Jestorball mold. He also appears to have better handling ability than first thought. On the other hand, Brockman's thicker, a proven passer and ballhandler, a better defender and with much better discipline and basketball understanding. Miami also really wants to re-sign Brockman in the offseason and benching him might cause him to re-think his situation.

Tough one to call, but we'll say that Hardin will get his chance in the lineup at some point during these six games to show what he can do. His record in Houston was mixed, but the Rockets have a run and gun system, whereas the Heat tend to be a moderate offense.

Center
Maric all the way. The only question is where he and Pau play when Gasol returns.

The Florida Wars' Future
Last season, the Miami Heat were one of the league's biggest underachievers with 27 wins. Jestor came in and completely remade the team, the end result of which is that at 29-29, Miami's already improved over last year, both now and going forward.

After the most recent trade, it's clear that the Heat intend to anchor themselves with Chris Paul and Aleks Maric as the cornerstones of a future championship run. The only question is the timing of that run. Will they keep Pau Gasol and attempt to challenge the Pistons and Cavaliers in the next few seasons, or will they take a longer view and trade him?

Gasol's situation in Miami has been a bit murky for much of the season, particularly after the failed Emeka Okafor trade. What the Heat decide to do with him will be one of many critical offseason decisions.

Erick Senberg, in counterpoint, has carefully built the Magic into a young, up and coming power. Only little-used Henry Saari is over 30 and Orlando has definitely been constructed according to Senberg's philosophy of how a basketball team should run on the court.

While the two rival GMs differ somewhat in their main focuses, with Senberg valuing rebounding, efficiency, depth and multiple scoring threats, and Jestor favoring passing, handling, shooting accuracy (another term for Senberg's efficiency), and intangibles, they have a key point of agreement in that it all begins with having at least one superstar to carry the team.

The Heat have CP3, the Magic Demar Derozan and the two should battle for MVP supremacy over the next several seasons.

In terms of draft picks:

Orlando Magic
Orlando Magic 2013 1st
Orlando Magic 2013 2nd
Boston Celtics 2014 1st
New York Knicks 2014 1st
Toronto Raptors 2014 1st
Orlando Magic 2014 1st
Houston Rockets 2014 1st
Dallas Mavericks 2014 2nd
Orlando Magic 2015 1st

Miami Heat
Miami Heat 2013 1st
Detroit Pistons 2013 1st
Atlanta Hawks 2013 2nd
New York Knicks 2014 2nd
Miami Heat 2015 1st
Miami Heat 2015 2nd

Under league rules, the Magic can only keep three of their 2014 1sts and it's well-known Orlando's been actively been trying to use those extra selections to acquire a third star. Some speculate that they may have been the team that initially ignited the rumor that Chris Paul might be traded with a lucrative package.

Few, if any, doubt that Senberg will get something of value for those first round selections and Orlando's rise to contender will continue.

Thus, it appears that the Florida Wars, which in recent seasons have been rather dull, now feature two quality teams who are quickly rising in NLL stature. While the Detroit/Cleveland pair of monoliths make realizing championship dreams difficult, Miami and Orlando will battle Charlotte for Southeast supremacy for several seasons to come, in what should be the NLL's most difficult division, save for perhaps the Central.

And from there, the fight is on to try and win the ring.

***

Context Notes
Yeah, Orlando are still our biggest rivals, though we also have a friendly rivalry with Charlotte, but more on that in future context notes.

Biggest thing here is that we had 29 wins already, which already superseded the 27 wins we had all of last year when I came in at the very tail end of the season.

Why could he only keep 3 draft picks?

League rule that you can only have 3 first round picks in any given draft. Another rule is that you have to have your own pick every other year.

The max three picks per first round rule has become fairly standardized for most MP leagues, I think. It's the same way in GAH.

The requiring own pick every other year rule came about because in the past, teams would rashly trade away all their own firsts and be so mismanaged, you saw teams like Detroit rack up a lot of lottery picks.

Personally, I hate that second rule, so in GAH, it's just that you need a first round pick every other year, not necessarily your own.

Edit: I should also add that you can have more than three first round picks in a given year, but by the time the draft hits you can not draft more than three players yourself in the first round, so it's not a basis for which to deny trades.

Not having your own first every other year or a first every other year, depending on the league, is, however, grounds for denying a trade. You can always trade off your excess picks. You can't always get your own or another first back.

Maric Showing Increasing Comfort and Chemistry

Despite a 1-3 record since his arrival, Aleks Maric has looked more and more in tune with Miami's offense

3 points. That was all that separated a Miami Heat team missing Chris Paul, Daequan Cook, and Pau Gasol from an upset of the West's second-best team.

The 103-100 loss was a heartbreaker for the Heat, who now drop 2.5 games behind the Washington Wizards for the 8th playoff seed.

But in this defeat, there lay hope for optimism. Recent pickup Aleks Maric has looked better with each game and broke 30 points for the first time in a Heat uniform, going 13/21 with 8 rebounds. Marcus Banks had 10 assists and 2 steals with just one turnover and held Dwayne Wade to 8/21 shooting. Likewise, although Devon Hardin was just 1 for 6, he grabbed 13 rebounds and held Yao Ming to 17 points and 10 rebounds on 5 of 13.

Steve Francis, formerly a 6th man of the Year candidate, continued his cold streak and was a major factor in the loss, shooting an abysmal 31% on 5 of 16 shooting, just 2 of 8 from three point range.

Cook returns next game and as of yet, it remains unclear as to if he'll take his old spot in the starting lineup or if he'll slide in as the 6th man.

"These losses have been tough", Heat coach Eric Musselman said after the game, "But we're getting a much better idea of how our team is shaking out and what we want the depth chart to look like once again Chris and Pau come back."

The only question is if it'll be too late for Miami to make that playoff push.

True Test To Come In Coming Games

A solid performance in his return had Miami fans celebrating Chris Paul

"I knew we had to beat them, so I stepped up."

Those were Chris Paul's words after he led the Miami Heat to a 104-89 win over his former team, the Minnesota Timberwolves, in his first game back from a sprained toe.

Paul finished with 29 points, 7 assists and 5 rebounds to spearhead an outside shooting assault that also included 22 points from Daequan Cook and 21 points from Mike Miller. Jon Brockman double-doubled for 15 points and 13 rebounds and although Aleks Maric was held to 8 points, he had 11 rebounds and 4 blocks.

Maric also held Tim Duncan to 3 of 11 shooting (27.3%), well below Duncan's 49.9% season average.

Paul played 45 of 48 minutes and admitted after the game he felt tired.

"It takes a lot out of you to go full throttle like that your first game back, but it felt great helping the team out, especially beating Minnesota."

After the win, the Heat, who have only won two games without Paul in the lineup, are 31-32, 1.5 games back of Milwaukee for 9th in the conference and 2 games back of Southeast foes Washington and Charlotte for the #7 and #8 playoff seeds.

"It's going to be crazy as we hit the home stretch", Miami head coach Eric Musselman said. "You've got four teams in the hunt for two spots."

The New Jersey Nets are up next on the docket for the Heat and if they can beat the Derrick Rose-less team, Miami can all but guarantee the Nets finish in the lottery. After that, an all-important showdown with the Bucks that has major playoff implications.

Drama Abounds For #1, #7 and #8 Seeds

NLL assists leader Deron Williams is fighting to get his Wizards back into the postseason

What a crazy year it's been in the East. From the meteoric rise of the Cleveland Cavaliers to the stunning collapse of the Philadelphia 76ers and everything in between, it's been a season to remember.

And we aren't done yet.

With roughly a quarter remaining in the season, NLL fans have the joy of watching an epic battle for the East's top seed between the first two teams to 50 wins and a scrum at the bottom for four teams for the #7 and #8 spots. There's also a tight race for the #4 to 6 seeds, but we'll take a look at those in Issue II next week.

Current Standings
1. Cleveland Cavaliers - 55-6
2. Detroit Pistons - 53-9
3. New York Knicks - 44-18
4. Atlanta Hawks - 40-23
5. Chicago Bulls - 38-23
6. Boston Celtics - 38-26
7. Charlotte Bobcats - 33-28
8. Washington Wizards - 32-29
---------------------------------
9. Milwaukee Bucks - 32-30
10. Miami Heat - 33-33


Home: 29-3
Away: 26-3
Remaining home games: 9
Remaining away games: 12
Current injuries: Dionte Christmas (Res.) - Sprained Toe
Key Dates: March 20th - vs. Pistons; April 15th - @ Pistons; March 29th - @ Bulls

Cleveland's looked Pistons-esque this year, a brilliant tour de force whose balanced attack (6 players with 10+ points) is spearheaded by team heart and soul Mike Conley's 21 points, 6.8 assists and 3.3 steals. The Cavaliers lead in almost every defensive category and are in the top 5 in nearly every offensive category, including #1 in league shooting at 51.9% a game. The secret to their success lies in part in their rotation. 8 players average 20+ minutes, keeping the stars fresh and helping prevent injuries.

As for the remaining schedule, it doesn't matter much whether it's home or away, Cleveland is that good. The Cavaliers can, however, go a long way to clinching the #1 seed by knocking out the Pistons in their remaining games and exorcising the Chicago ghost. The Bulls have handed Cleveland 2 of their 6 losses this year.


Home: 27-2
Away: 26-7
Remaining home games: 12
Remaining away games: 8
Key dates: March 20th - @ Cleveland, April 15th - vs Cleveland
Current injuries: None

Detroit's only looked a little off the pace because Cleveland's been so good. The dynasty is still one of the league's top two teams and more importantly, they have the fire in the belly to stave off the young upstarts. Lebron James (22.3 points, 8.2 assists, 1.4 steals) and Greg Oden (15.2 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.6 blocks) still headline the team, but the Pistons also have arguably two of the best young bench players in Rodney Stuckey and Amir Johnson.

Can the Pistons make up the 2.5 games? Yes, but as things stand, they'll need to sweep the Cavaliers to really give them hope. It's certainly possible, although the home team has won in each of the Detroit/Cleveland games this year.

And now on to the #7 and #8 battle.


Home: 20-11
Away: 13-17
Remaining home games: 10
Remaining away games: 11
Key dates: March 24th - vs. Heat, April 6th - @ Bucks, April 15th - @ Wizards, April 17th - @ Heat
Current injuries: Jaycee Carroll (Res. - Strained Knee - 6 days), Andre Igudola (Res. - Sprained Toe - 13 days)

Although the Bobcats currently sit in the 7th spot, they have a brutal schedule remaining. Not only do they have 3 out of 4 Key Dates on the road, but they have to play Southeast-leading Atlanta twice and have home dates against the Knicks and Pistons.

Charlotte has a great core in Gerald Green, Brad Stokes, Kevin Love and B.J. Mullens and they'll need those young players to step up and deliver if the Bobcats want to go back to the playoffs.


Home: 22-10
Away: 10-19
Remaining home games: 9
Remaining away games: 12
Key dates: March 16th - @ Bucks, April 9th - vs. Bucks, April 15th - vs. Bobcats
Current injuries: Brandon Wright (S - Broken ankle - 54 days), Manu Ginobli (Res. - Sore back - 4 days), Nick Smith (S - Broken leg - 2 days), Rashon Felix (S/Res. - Sore hip - 2 days)

Losing Wright for the regular season was a tough blow, but Washington's held up fine and they return Smith soon. They also have a comparatively easy schedule, playing the Jazz and Pacers twice and getting the Thunder on the road. The Wizards do have a 5 game road trip at the end of March, but if they can get through that well, they should be in the postseason.


Home: 18-13
Away: 14-17
Remaining home games: 10
Remaining away games: 10
Key dates: March 16th - vs. Wizards, April 6th - vs. Bobcats, April 9th - @ Wizards
Current injuries: Kirk Hinrich (S. - Torn Knee Tendon - Lost for year)

Toney Douglas has stepped up hugely in Hinrich's absence, averaging 10.1 points, 6.8 assists and 1.2 steals in 44 starts. Milwaukee's schedule is similar to the Wizards in that they have a 5 game road swing at the end of March, but a relatively soft schedule overall. Losing to the Heat two nights ago was significant, but there's still plenty of room and opportunity for the Bucks to move back into the playoffs, especially given their comparative road parity.


Home: 22-11
Away: 11-22
Remaining home games: 8
Remaining away games: 8
Key dates: March 24th - @ Bobcats, April 17th - vs. Bobcats
Current injuries: Aleks Maric (S - sore shoulder - 6 days), Steve Francis (Res. - sore hand - 5 days)

Miami has a somewhat favorable schedule in terms of matchups, but the fact they've played 66 games and are .500 is a huge weight against them since the teams above have games in hand on them. It's going to be a race against time, but Pau Gasol's return will be a huge help and if the Heat can avoid injuries to their stars, as has happened far too often this season, they just might slip in.

Indeed, as their convincing home win over the Bucks, followed by a hard-fought 10 point loss the next night in New York shows, they have the 3 star system in Gasol, Chris Paul, and Aleks Maric to pull it off. But it may be too little, too late.

Projected Shakeout
Cleveland Cavaliers - #1
Detroit Pistons - #2
Milwaukee Bucks - #7
Charlotte Bobcats - #8
-------------------------
Washington Wizards - #9
Miami Heat - #10

***

Context Notes
Obviously the last article gives you a little bit better overview of how the East, at least, looked in this league towards the end stretch of my first full season.

Hard to believe CP3 played 45 minutes in his first game back. I must not have set the sub matrix then, as I usually keep my guys around 32 minutes to try and limit injuries (Ironically enough).

Focus Shifts To Offseason

Will Pau Gasol be glamming it up elsewhere next season?

The Miami Heat may be 38-36 and finally appear to be gelling, but with the Charlotte Bobcats 39-33 and the Milwaukee Bucks already with 40 wins, the Heat's playoff chances look all but mathematically eliminated.

It's been a wild year in South Beach. GM Dan Donovan was fired in the offseason and replaced by Jestor, who instantly engaged in a remodeling project, the results of which will be more fully covered in the season review.

More trades came through the year, including a canceled swap of Pau Gasol to the Boston Celtics for Emeka Okafor and other pieces. There were also the injuries, a serious one to Pau Gasol and constant ones to Chris Paul.

And of course, the streaks. Winning streaks, losing streaks; the Heat was as volatile as their GM's reported mood swings. In the end, it's all translated into a vastly improved record over the prior season, but just short of the playoffs.

Now the emphasis is on the offseason and sources in South Florida say the conversation is heaviest round two players.

Pau Gasol


Gasol missed two months with a broken bone and hasn't looked quite as sharp since coming back. Much of it can be attributed to the fact that he was playing with an entirely new lineup, as several of Miami's trades happened during his time out.

He's still one of the better bigs in the league, though, and teams continue to covet him. It's believed the front office will shop him during the offseason and could possibly move him before the draft.

"If Miami doesn't move him during the draft, he won't be traded at all," suggested one analyst. "What they do during the draft is absolutely dependent on what they do with Pau. Keep him, and they probably look at a swingman with their Top 15 pick. Trade him, and they'll likely look at a big man."

Jon Brockman


If the discussion over Gasol is heated, it might be even more fiery over Jon Brockman, who has a boatload of positives (defense, rebounding, handling, foul drawing), but who is both undersized and a still inaccurate shooter. That lack of shooting accuracy caused him to get benched after the Aleks Maric trade and Gasol's return.

There's also the question, if the Heat decide to retain him, of how much they would want to pay for his services. Since it isn't likely Brockman would be a starter unless Gasol were traded and the pick proved too raw to step into the lineup, it's not certain what kind of money they'd commit.

A sign and trade could be in the works as well, although how likely that is to happen is unclear with the amount of cap space teams have and the propensity for bidding wars over free agents.

Who Won't Be Going
It's safe to say that Chris Paul and Aleks Maric won't be traded. Neither is it likely Daequan Cook or Anthony Morrow leave.

Who Won't Return
Sources say Ricky Davis will play elsewhere next year.

Who Could Go
Anyone not mentioned, although the Heat reportedly have particular interest in trading Mike Miller and Steve Francis, but won't pay anyone to take them since they're both expiring contracts and can still contribute to a number of teams.

Who Might Return
Jestor loves having a UNLV connection and Miami's coaching staff was impressed with Marcus Banks's passing and ball security as Paul's backup. It's quite possible the former Runnin' Reb comes back, but likely only on a one year minimum salary deal.

Gasol Game MVP Amidst Trade Rumors

Spanish-language tabloids report Pau Gasol's girlfriend has been a great comfort to him during his rollercoaster season

Just days after whispers of Heat GM Jestor having a nervous breakdown, trade speculation target Pau Gasol led Miami to a brisk 102-85 win over the Memphis Grizzlies for the Heat's fifth straight win and their seventh in eighth games. Gasol put up 20 points, 11 rebounds and 4 blocks and he was aided by Chris Paul's 12 points and 11 assists, Anthony Morrow's 10 bench points, and Marcus Banks's 8 points and 8 assists with just 1 turnover off the bench.

The victory is also the Heat's 40th of the season, and with six games remaining, chances are good that Miami finishes .500 or better for the first time since 2009, when they were 51-31 and won the Southeast.

"The fact that we're finishing how we are, with all our injury problems and all the flux in our roster is a testament to the front office, the players and the coaching staff," head coach Eric Musselman said after the game.

"We've overcome a lot of adversity this season and no matter what happens with the playoffs or the lottery situation, wherever we end up, this is a year I think all of us can take some pride in."

Can Miami Beat Tiebreaker Spread?

No, we don't mean *that* Wire. The Heat are definitely targeting the Bobcats, however.

The textbook roller coaster season comes down to this game for the Miami Heat. The Charlotte Bobcats are taking the trek to South Beach. Should Charlotte win, or, according to the NLL Stats Bureau, lose by less than 9 points, they clinch the final playoff spot.

If Miami wins by 10 or more, they're still in the running, but they would have to both beat Orlando on the road the next night and see Charlotte lose to the Pistons in North Carolina, neither of which are certainties in this year's wild NLL.

A breakdown of the projected starters:

Point Guard
Carlos Arroyo vs. Chris Paul
Arroyo has been a quietly consistent player for the Bobcats this season, posting 10.1 points and 6.1 assists. Unfortunately, he's been bothered by back spasms, which have greatly affected his shooting in recent games. On the other hand, putting anyone else against CP3 is likely to result in Paul's torching Charlotte.

Paul needs little introduction. #2 in the league in scoring at 23.3 points a game along with his 6.8 assists and 1.8 steals (T-10th in the league). That's to say nothing of his 4.0 A/TO ratio. If Miami makes the playoffs, expect Paul to get MVP consideration.

Advantage: Miami

Shooting Guard
Brad Stokes vs. Daequan Cook
Stokes, averaging 15.3 points and 1.1 steals a game, is one of the most accurate shooting guards in the league at 51.3%. He's also a quality defender.

10.6 points and 1.3 steals for Cook, averaging 48.8% shooting, 40.5% from long-range. While not quite as esteemed a defender as Stokes, Daequan's intelligence and discipline are excellent, making him a favorite of many in the league. He also has 2 inches on Stokes.

Advantage: Draw

Small Forward
Gerald Green vs. Mike Miller
Green's also a top scorer at 22.2 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists and a steal per game. He's shooting a career high 51% and his 6'8, 204 lb. frame has allowed him to stop 93.8% of the drives that have come his way this season. A true franchise player.

Look up gritty veteran and you'll find Miller's picture. Averaging 9.1 points between Houston and Miami and his shooting percentages have gone up considerably since coming to the Heat and winning a starting spot for the first time since 2008 with the Nets. That said, he's merely a good all-around player and not a standout in any one area.

Advantage: Charlotte

Power Forward
Kevin Love vs. Aleks Maric
Love has fit in seamlessly into the Bobcats' rotation and it was after he arrived that Charlotte really took off. Averaging 14.2 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4 assists per game at 50.5% shooting for the season. One of the smartest and most disciplined players in the entire league. Does only stop 72% of drives, though.

Maric's averaging 14.9 points, 8.6 points and 1.9 blocks split between Houston and Miami. That said, his shooting percentage has gone from 57.2 to 54.7 since the trade. He's still capable of dominating a game, though, as he did against the Pacers with 25 points on 10/18 shooting. While not quite as disciplined or intelligent as Love, Maric ranks high and he's also stopped 80.4% of his drives.

Advantage: Draw

Center
B.J. Mullens vs. Pau Gasol
When you're a second year center and you're averaging 17.1 points, 10.9 rebounds and 1.5 blocks at 20 years old, you're already a franchise center, especially when you shoot 54.2%. 7' 275 frame is one of the hardest to defend against.

Gasol is 7' himself, but gives up 33 pounds to Mullens. 50.1% shooting for 15.1 points, 8.7 rebounds and 1.7 blocks. Also a far more intelligent player than Mullens, but the real ace is Gasol's 91.9% stop rate, which will be critical in trying to neutralize the young gun. It's a classic case of the star youth vs. the savvy, talented veteran and it's a battle that could decide the game.

Advantage: Draw

Bench
Jaycee Carroll is Charlotte's 3 point specialist and main bench scorer, averaging 9.6 points a game. Travis Outlaw is the defensive stopper - 94.1%. Jrue Holiday is perhaps the most underrated 3 point shooter in the league. He's converting 51.1% from long range. Unfortunately, his passing and handling are better suited to a backup role. The Lopez brothers are here, but they make for poor bench bigs, a potential Achilles heel.

Looking at the stats of Miami's bench is misleading. Steve Francis was originally a 6th man of the Year candidate, but hasn't seen the court in a long time. Jon Brockman is averaging 8.9 points and 5.7 rebounds, but started 43 games.and has an awful 38.7% shooting percentage. Brockman's praised for his defense, but stops just 77.6% of drives.

More reliable: Ricky Davis with 96.7% drives stopped, best on the team. Devon Hardin - 95.2% drives stopped while averaging 5 points and 5.3 rebounds with 48.8% shooting. Anthony Morrow 6.5 points with 43.4% shooting from 3 point range. Marcus Banks with a sterling 4.2 A/TO ratio, causing him to beat out Francis for the backup PG spot.

In short, it's a little hard to compare the benches, because Charlotte doesn't use their bigs much and Miami constantly tinkers with their rotations due to injuries and riding the hot hand.

Advantage: Probably slightly Miami

Larger Picture Notes
Miami is 27-13 at home and ranks #1 in fewest turnovers allowed/game at 12. They also rank #1 in fewest steals allowed/game at 5.7.

Charlotte is 18-22 on the road and ranks #7 in scoring at 100.2 points a game, #4 in assists (26.8), T-6th in rebounds (42.7), #3 in shooting % (48.5), #6 in FT % (78.8), #8 in turnovers allowed (14.3), #8 in rebounds allowed (40.2).

Final Verdict
This one is really too close to call. Paul should dominate Arroyo, Green should dominate Miller, and then it's an all-out coin-flip to decide who wins.

Is This Tired Heat's Final Fantasy?

SF Mike Miller's all-around game was representative of how the Heat stayed alive in the race for 8

Last night, 90 miles from Cuba, the Miami Heat looked like a Southern version of the Chicago Bulls, attempting 35 three-pointers and hitting 15 (42.9%) on their way to a rousing 100-85 win over the Charlotte Bobcats to send the decision of the East's 8th playoff spot to the NLL's final night.

Although it was Gerald Green who won Player of the Game with his stellar 29 point, 6 rebound outing on 12/23 shooting, and although the Bobcats boasted two double-doubles in Kevin Love (17 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists) and B.J. Mullens (16 points, 13 rebounds, 3 blocks), it was Miami's triumph in front of a delirious, sellout crowd in the end.

Chris Paul's 22 points and 6 assists with no turnovers and Pau Gasol's 10 points and 11 rebounds are the statistical highlights that would pop out to the casual observer, but this game was won because of the entire time.

There was Mike Miller, countering Green's splendor as well as he could with a balanced game of 18 points on 7/15 shooting, adding 5 assists and 3 steals. Daequan Cook hit 4/6 shots, including 4/4 from long range, and just missed the double-double, finishing with 13 points and 9 assists. Not to be outdone, backup point guard and former UNLV star Marcus Banks converted 3 of 4 shots from downtown, ending the game with 9 points and 4 assists, also with nary a turnover.

And then there was the quietest, but in many ways the biggest, unsung hero.


Aleks Maric didn't have an electrifying sideways dunk, but he was crucial

Aleks Maric played the defensive game of his life, ensuring Kevin Love's double-double was a Pyrrhic one. The former Cornhusker held Love to 5 of 18 shooting (27.8%), 2/7 from 3 point range (28.6%). In addition, Maric had 8 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and 3 blocks, a versatility that matched fellow one-time Rocket Miller's all-around outing.

Maric admitted to being tired after the game.

"Kevin's a terrific player and you've got to stay on him the whole game or he'll destroy you. I'm exhausted, but we've still got to win in Orlando tomorrow night," he said.

Not only do the Heat have to face Jestor's old team, the Orlando Magic, and beat them in the Magic Kingdom on the back end of a doubleheader, but the Charlotte Bobcats need to lose when they host Detroit tonight.

Although Orlando is missing franchise star Demar Derozan, the Magic will still be an extremely difficult test. Not only is the Heat 15-25 on the road this season, but Orlando plays a stifling, swarming defensive game and GM Erick Senberg is considered one of the league's great tacticians.

"I talked up the Florida rivalry earlier this season," a bemused Jestor, GM of the Heat, noted. "Now it seems as though the first significant chapter will get written tomorrow night."

All eyes will be on Miami's head coach, Eric Musselman, to see if he can draw up a gameplan as brilliant as the bombs-away strategy that knocked off the Bobcats.

Eric vs. Erick.

Miami vs. Orlando.

The final playoff spot on the line.

Does the last night of the NLL regular season get any better than this?

***

Context Notes
Setting up easily the most exciting final regular season sim of any league I've ever been in. To go through all the crap and all the injuries we did and still have a shot at a playoff spot in the league's superior conference made me feel damned good.

So many times I and everyone else had left us for dead, but there we were with a fighting chance.

Good luck taking down Orlando and being a sacrificial lamb to one of the two Eastern juggernauts.

I know that is the extremely pessimistic viewpoint. Win or lose, sounds like you had a nice jump both in wins and overall franchise viability this season.

Miami Loses Playoff Spot To Coin Flip; Tropical Storm Grounds Heat Scouting Planes

Bob prevented the Miami Heat's scouts from flying to see players

The Miami Heat got it done and were about to get it done, but luck and Mother Nature had other plans for a team already afflicted with so much adversity this season.

Needing to beat the Magic in Orlando, the Heat did it, whipping their Florida rivals 111-69 behind Pau Gasol's 25 points and 10 rebounds, Mike Miller's 20 point, and reserve point guard Marcus Banks's 11 points, 6 assists, and 2 steals. Despite their exhaustion from playing the Bobcats the night before, the Heat shot 57.5%, while holding the Magic to 34.6%.

All eyes were also on the matchup in Charlotte, where the Bobcats lost to the Detroit Pistons 98-80. Celebrations broke out in South Florida and flights and playoff tickets were booked.

Until the NLL stepped in and said the tiebreaker would be determined by a coin flip. In a three-way videoconference, the Miami Heat were given the right to choose first and took tails. The coin came up heads and it was the Bobcats on to the playoffs. A few have insinuated the coin was double-headed, but brokenhearted Miami opted not to file a complaint.

But that wasn't the only misfortune to befall the Heat last night.

Tropical Storm Bob suddenly hit inland, venting his fury and forcing all flights out of Miami's airports to be canceled. Heat scouts, who had just been given their assignments, were forced to stay behind, and under NLL scouting rules, teams are no longer eligible to send scouts out to review players.*

"It's been a rough night," a frazzled Heat GM Jestor admitted. "To get slammed with the double whammy like that is devastating. But who knows? Maybe these things happened for a reason."

Miami's season review will published during the playoffs.

* - We had a nasty thunderstorm all last night here in Las Vegas and lost Internet right when I was starting to email out my scouting reports. We didn't get it back until after the sim was run. I'm not asking for a reprieve or anything; I should have done it sooner. But I just thought it was another layer of irony, sprinkled on top of Wolverine Studios' DDSPB Community Manager getting eliminated from the playoff race because of a DDS glitch.

UNLV Connection Hopes For Miracle

PG Marcus Banks revived his career after being traded to Miami

Marcus Banks, the point guard who experienced a small renaissance after joining the Miami Heat, knocking Steve Francis out of the backup point guard spot, will be the Miami Heat's representative at tonight's lottery, despite being an impeding free agent.

The surehanded Banks is emblematic of the Heat's ball security mantra and also shares a UNLV connection with Miam GM Jestor.

"We're hoping for some of that 1990 Runnin' Rebels luck," Jestor said.

Some speculate the decision is also a pre-emptive strike on Jestor's part to induce Banks to re-sign with the Heat, given his raised profile will get him more looks this offseason.

A Rollercoaster Season Falls Just Short Of Playoffs

Obtaining Chris Paul was arguably Heat GM Jestor's greatest accomplishment this season

Although the Miami Heat's season ended in bitter disappointment, with a wrongway coin flip and no miracle in the lottery, the fact remains that the year proved more successful than many predicted, particularly after injuries to Pau Gasol and Chris Paul.

It all began with the start of the offseason when Jestor returned to the NLL after a year and a half's hiatus. The Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat had recently sacked their general managers and Jestor opted to return to Florida, where he was briefly the GM of the Orlando Magic.

He inherited a roster that some promising young players, primarily Stanley Robinson, and a mid first round pick, the Rockets', as the previous management had dealt away Miami's own first to the Detroit Pistons, which ended up a Top 5 pick after the Heat's 27 win season.

Recognizing the need to make dramatic changes, Jestor started his South Beach reign with a bang, a three-way blockbuster with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic.

Miami Heat receive
PG Chris Paul - $14,000,000
SG Daequan Cook - $3,240,000

Minnesota Timberwolves receive
SF Stanley Robinson - $2,009,020
SF Rudy Gay - $11,829,035
PG Ramon Sessions - $1,529,244
#12 pick in upcoming draft
Minnesota Timberwolves 2014 1st
Dallas Mavericks 2013 2nd

Orlando Magic receive
PF Cheikh Samb - $906,300
PF Jeff Adrien - $983,500

Chris Paul became the Heat's immediate franchise face and would have earned MVP consideration had Miami made the playoffs. As it is, his 23.2 points a game ranked #2 in the league behind Dwayne Wade and he also posted 6.8 assists and 1.8 steals as one of the league's best players.

Daequan Cook bounced between the 2 and 3 spots before finally settling into the starting SG role, averaging 10.6 points and 1.3 steals while shooting 48.8%, 41.2% from long range.

The trade was an overwhelming victory for the Heat, as Sessions was never considered more than a 5th starter by the front office and indeed, he shot 37.7% for the Timberwolves, albeit with 9.1 assists a game. Gay and Robinson didn't last long with Minnesota and while Adrien blossomed in Orlando, Samb struggled this season.

Jestor's second trade was much less successful.

Miami Heat receive
PF Omer Asik - $667,417

Cleveland Cavaliers receive
SF Richard Jefferson - $12,626,000
Toronto Raptors 2015 2nd

Toronto Raptors receive
SF Al Harrington - $9,317,000
Cleveland Cavaliers 2013 2nd
Cleveland Cavaliers 2015 2nd

Asik was a player a lot of teams were high on, including the Heat, but despite ample opportunity to become a worthwhile presence down low, Omer never materialized as a legitimate starter. Jefferson, meanwhile, became a vital cog in the 72 win Cavaliers' attack.

Although the cap space was a major part of the trade for Miami, it all got blown in the most infamous of the offseason deals.

Miami Heat receive
Monty Myles - $10,350,000 (via sign and trade)
Detroit Pistons 2013 1st

Detroit Pistons receive
L.R. Mbah a Moute - $2,000,000
Miami 2014 1st - Top 5 Protected

Myles bombed spectacularly, despite being given opportunities similar to Asik. Although he showed flashes of greatness, he never came close to living up to his massive contract. a Moute, on the other hand, was barely used and is demanding a trade. The Pistons pick is #29 in the deepest draft in NLL history, but the overall victor of the deal is still to be determined, as we don't know how the Heat will perform in 2014, or, should the pick fall to 2015, then.

Sergio Lull, Derrick Byars, and Milovan Rakovic were the draft selections, although Llull was designed to go to the Orlando Magic until the Heat thought Myles would be better than trying to go for it all by acquiring Kevin Garnett in a three-way. It was a decision that would prove disastrous not only for the Myles reasons, but because the organization had no interest in Llull themselves.

Miami went into the season with a line of Paul/Cook/Myles/Pau Gasol/Asik and the team struggled to find a rhythm while this new-look lineup played with each other.

Then another trade broke in late November.

Miami Heat receive
PG Steve Francis - $7,786,880
PF Jon Brockman - $667,417

Charlotte Bobcats receive
PG Earl Watson - $6,200,000
PG Darren Collison - $2,703,960
Miami Heat 2014 2nd round pick

The Bobcats got the cap relief they wanted and Miami got a topnotch defender in Brockman, who flitted between SF and PF before settling into the PF spot until a later trade moved him to the bench. But the real surprise was Francis, who became a serious 6th Man of the Year candidate during a stunning 10 game win streak after Gasol's two month injury, providing the Heat the offensive bench spark they desperately needed in the wake of that loss.

Miami made two more trades near the deadline.

Miami Heat receive
Ricky Davis - $2,500,000
Marcus Banks - $921,587

Los Angeles Clippers receive
Brian Scalabrine - $2,554,400

Davis proved a fantastic perimeter stopper, although inconsistent shooting and turnovers earned him a trip to the bench. Banks, who was the real reason the Heat started talks with the Clippers, made Jestor look smart in surpassing Francis as the backup PG and posting a team high 4.4 A/TO ratio. Scalabrine, meanwhile, became a useful defensive reserve for the Clippers and played a role in their making it to the postseason.

And then came the trade that reversed all the bad mojo from Jestor's offseason errors.

Miami Heat receive
Aleks Maric - $1,429,200
Devon Hardin - $5,200,000
Mike Miller - $5,715,360

Houston Rockets receive
Monty Myles - $10,350,000
Sergio Llull - $1,199,800
Derrick Byars - $398,762
Omer Asik - $667,417
San Antonio Spurs 2014 1st

Every single one of Jestor's mistakes went to the Houston Rockets, along with the Spurs' 2014 1st for the Houston player Miami coveted most in Maric, who gave the Heat a young, talented big, who had stellar games down the stretch for Miami. Miller, despite not being a favorite of his new organization, emerged as the starting SF and saw his shooting percentages go up with the switch. Hardin provided a major upgrade to the bench big situation.

But what really made this trade a triumph for the Heat was that the only new Rocket to get significant minutes was Asik, who finished the season with an abysmal 39.4% shooting rate.

All these deals and moves added up to a 44-38 season, a huge improvement on the 27 wins from last year. Miami fans can be happy once again that they have a good team.

The brightest spot may have been Miami's leading the league in fewest turnovers and steals allowed. Ball security is the hallmark of Jestorball, just as shooting accuracy and running and gunning is the trademark of Manuball and defense the calling card of the Pistons.

Projecting to the Offseason - Players on the Team
Chris Paul, Daequan Cook, and Aleks Maric are all virtual locks to stay. The front office loves those three players and won't part with them for anything. Anthony Morrow is too great a bargain to be moved easily, either.

As for the rest, Pau Gasol is likely to draw the most interest, but it's uncertain that he'll go, despite the constant rumors and the botched Boston trade that would have brought Emeka Okafor to Miami. Everyone else is available and given Jestor's proclivity for trading, we could see some changes.

For the impending free agents, Ricky Davis won't be back. Leo Lyons probably won't be, as he's angry about his decreased playing time. The Heat will almost certainly try to bring back Marcus Banks, but likely won't get into a major bidding war for him. The X-factor is Jon Brockman. They love his defense, rebounding, intelligence, discipline, work ethic and handling ability, but is that enough to overcome his terrible shooting?

Projecting the Offseason - The Draft
Miami holds picks 14, 29, and 55. Two of the players they've been projected to take in several mock drafts, Fresno State's Paul George and California's Theo Robertson, are mocked at 14 and 29, with Serbian Milan Macvan projected at 55.

Who the Heat take largely depends on what they do with Gasol. If they keep him, it's almost certain they'll go with a SG or SF at 14. Rumor has it the front office loves Donatas "Dirk v 2.0" Montiejunas and came away from the NCAA tournament absolutely thrilled with Jon Scheyer. The Heat were also one of the first ones to highlight Artsiom Parakhouski and are believed to be considering him as well as Gasol's heir apparent and as a deepening of their bench big situation.

Another possibility is Miami trading both 14 and 29 to move up in the draft to guarantee one of the swingmen they want. In addition to the names mentioned, Al-Farouq Aminu is believed to be high on the Heat's draft board, as is Greg Monroe, whose versatility, particularly his passing and handling abilities, mesh perfectly with Jestorball philosophy.

There's also been some talk that the Heat could deal one or both of their first round picks for a star player who could help them out right away at one of those swingman spots. Jestor has, after all, traditionally picked poorly in drafts and in free agency, and has done his best work via trading for established players.

It's believed that if the Heat keep all three picks, they'll draft some combination of a swingman and a big in the first round, and a pass-first point guard in the second round.

What's certain is that Miami won't trade down from #14. According to sources, the Heat feel they would lose too much value in talent relative to their needs if they dropped down.

***

Context Notes
Pretty much it's all here in the articles themselves. As it turns out, missing the playoffs my first full year in Miami would prove to have an interesting fallout effect... but more on that as we roll along here.

It's a realistic viewpoint, as at this point in the league's history, the conference balance was so skewed that the top 6 teams in the East were the top 6 teams in the entire league. Frustrations aside, my first full season was a definite success, IMO, just in terms of clearing out a roster that wasn't working well together at all and fashioning something much more in line with the vision I had for the team.

Although Unlikely To Win, Heat Coach Deserves Mention

Potassium deficient NLL fans don't care who wins Coach of the Year

It has become one of the most ignored awards in the NLL trophy case. The Coach of the Year award seems an automatic handoff to Mike D'Antoni of the Pistons, or, this year, Eric Williams of the Cleveland Cavaliers. No GM voting takes place and nobody really pays attention.

But both these actions, even in a year that saw two 70 win teams for the first time in professional basketball history, would do a disservice to the job Eric Musselman did with the Miami.

Taking over for the fired Flip Saunders when the Heat were 5-10, Musselman led Miami to a 39-28 mark the rest of the way, including a brilliant 11 game winning streak after Pau Gasol broke his leg. Musselman also had to deal with constant personnel changes as a result of GM Jestor's quick trigger finger and proved unafraid of riding the hot hand, such as Steve Francis briefly becoming a 6th Man of the Year candidate during the improbable win streak and then turning to Marcus Banks once Francis started getting cold.

In fact, Miami should be in the playoffs today and Musselman deserves the credit for it. He dealt with injuries, trades, and other changes to forge the Heat from a likely mid-lottery team to a legitimate playoff franchise... and in the powerhouse East, that's no small feat.

Suns Surprise of the Season

Jiri Welsch's signing to a min-sal is just one of many of Suns GM Phil Nixon's most unsung moves

At the end of the day, Miami Heat GM Jestor couldn't quite justify the placement in the top 3. But with Suns GM Phil Nixon not mentioned in the early voting for GM of the Year, Jestor felt the Phoenix front office head deserved some recognition.

"This was a team a lot of people, including me, thought would probably be a late lottery team even in the weak West. But then they go out and make the playoffs, upset the heavily favored Timberwolves in the first round and are giving the Kings a hell of a fight in Round 2, even without Carlos Boozer. You don't have that kind of performance without a good GM", Jestor said.

Four of the most valuable moves that engineered Phoenix's turnaround:

1. Signing Jiri Welsch to a veteran minsal contract
Although Welsch was unhappy about his 21.4 minutes a game during the regular season, the 32 year old has proved his worth in the playoffs, posting a dazzling 18.7 points and 2 steals a game, helping pick up the offensive slack in the wake of Boozer's loss. Hit 40% of his 3 point shots in the regular season, 37% in the postseason thus far. Welsch is having his best postseason ever, and his best regular season since 2009 with the Pacers. He's been serious bang for buck.

2. Getting Darrell Arthur as part of the Joe Johnson blockbuster
Although Arthur played a reserve role during the regular season, he's also put on stellar outings since Boozer went down, averaging 19.3 points and 10 rebounds on 19/32 (59.4%) shooting in his three starts. At 22 years old and locked into a lengthy, but reasonable contract, he figures to be a cornerstone of the Suns for years to come.

3. Using the cap cleared from Johnson's contract to land Carlos Boozer
Without Boozer's ability to fight for rebounds and occasionally go off on scoring binges, as in Game 4, when he lead all scorers with 28 points, the Suns don't beat the Timberwolves. He was also an underrated part of Phoenix's regular season and, in his own way, proved just as valuable to the Suns as Johnson's scoring would have been. Boozer also did a fair job defensively on Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett in the opening round before breaking his nose.

4. Trading for Larry Hughes
Hughes led the Suns in scoring at 16.7 points and 2 steals per game and had his best season since 2010 with the Jazz. Although he's found himself in a reserve spot in the postseason, he's arguably been the most productive 10 minute a game player, averaging 6 points on 56.8% shooting, 66.7% from 3 point range, and with nary a free throw missed (6/6).

Projected Future
Nixon's moves have laid the foundation for the future, particularly his capture of Arthur. One images a lineup next season of:

PG ?
SG Larry Hughes/?
SF James Johnson
PF Carlos Boozer/Darrell Arthur
C Hamed Haddadi
6th Boozer/Arthur or Hughes

The Suns' biggest need is PG, but this draft class appears to be shallow at the 1. Phoenix has been shopping the 18th and Haddadi for a legitimate PG, but perhaps they might want to consider shopping Boozer instead. Johnson/Arthur/Haddadi is a young, talented frontcourt lineup, capable of dominating the league for years to come and Boozer plus the 18th for a PG would make more sense if they can land it.

Or perhaps they'll want to keep the 18th and select a young SG who would be an upgrade as Hughes' replacement/heir apparent over Brandon Roy. They could then use their MLE on a PG upgrade and will able to argue strongly for the PG/young SG/Johnson/Arthur/Haddadi as one of the West's top up and coming teams.

In any case, it promises to be an exciting offseason in the desert.

Trade Market Eerily Quiet In South Florida

Pau Gasol on the set of CSI:Miami

Trade rumors are percolating everywhere, including in Florida, where the Orlando Magic are awash in swap speculation, some even suggesting that the Magic Kingdom is using their considerable assets and making a strong push for the #2 overall pick to get either John Wall or Evan Turner to pair with DeMar Derozan.

But in South Beach, the phones are quiet and not much discussion is going on. The Heat did reportedly receive a very tempting offer for franchise face and 4th in MVP voting Chris Paul that would have had one of the league's best young players and a return to the 2014 draft as highlights, but Paul's trade restriction ensured restful nights for Heat GM Jestor.

Thus far, what few legal inquiries have come in have been about #14 and #29, but Miami remains steadfast in their refusal to part with either of those picks, the Heat still hoping to bundle the selections together to move up into the Top 10.

Sources say the team's shopped around for upgrades to their SG/SF position, including Seattle's Austin Daye , New Orleans's Martell Webster and Trevor Ariza, Indiana's Josh Smith, Utah's Patrick Ewing, Jr. and Washington's Shawn Marion, but so far nothing has materialized.

Nor has there been anything other than cursory interest in Pau Gasol, as teams are presently fixated on draft picks, youth, and clearing cap space for the upcoming free agency period.

"It's been a bit shocking that nobody wants Gasol", one NLL analyst said. "While the league has always been youth-obsessed, the Bulls and to a lesser extent, the Bobcats, showed this year what an offensive-minded team can do and Charlotte and Miami both illustrated the value of big men with good passing and handling skills."

One thing seems certain and that's if Gasol isn't traded before the draft, he'll stay in Miami. Where the Heat go with their two first round picks, if they don't trade up, is too dependent on whether or not Gasol is still on the team.

Four Possible Picks at #14

Could Donatas Motiejunas be the one?

Rumor has it that the front office really likes SF Donatas Motiejunas. Dubbed Dirk 2.0, the 7 footer's passing and handling skills are believed to be a perfect fit for Jestorball's sacrosanct principle of ball security, and he'd give Miami much-needed size at the 3 spot, presenting the Heat with a 7' SF, a 6'11 PF in Aleks Maric, and a 7' C in Gasol or vice versa for PF and C, depending on the matchup.


Or maybe even Alexey Shved?

Another player reportedly getting more and more traction in the Miami war room is PG Alexey Shved, widely considered the class's top point guard prospect. Scouts say he represents many of the elements required of a point guard in the classical Jestorball system and although the Heat have Paul and are fully intent on bringing Marcus Banks back in free agency, Shved could well be the best player available by #14 and excellent trade bait for PG hungry teams like the Phoenix Suns and the Detroit Pistons.


The Heat was the first team to publicly notice Artsiom Parakhouski

If Gasol is traded, Radford C Artsiom Parakhouski has been flying up the draft boards recently and the Miami Heat was the first team to notice him. He'd likely be the selection here should Gasol go elsewhere and another big man doesn't come back.


Another big man possibility is Baylor's Ekpe Udoh

Although he hasn't gotten much attention, Baylor big Ekpe Udoh is another possibility at #14. Sources say the Heat really like what they initially saw of him and they're bringing him in for a private workout to see if he can be the kind of player who'd fit in well alongside Maric.

Four Possible Picks If The Heat Move Up To The Top 10


Speculation has it SF Al Farouq-Aminu is very high on the Heat's board

According to insider sources, Heat GM Jestor raved about Farouq-Aminu's game after the scouting reports came back. He's believed to be #1 on Miami's draft board behind the obvious trio of John Wall, Evan Turner, and Greg Monroe, the latter a textbook example of a Jestorball player. But only Farouq-Aminu figures to possibly slip into the range the Heat might be able to trade up to and that's only because of his rawness. Probably not the best selection for a Heat team that doesn't have its 2014 1st, however.


The fastest riser of them all, Jon Scheyer

Another fundamental element of Jestorball philosophy is acquiring players who have proven themselves in the pressure of postseason play. There's no better example than Duke's SG Jon Scheyer, who lit up the NCAA tournament en route to the Blue Devil's national championship. Under this scenario, Scheyer plays SG and Daequan Cook, who has proven capable of handling the 3 before, slides to SF. It also means a full-bore, offensively oriented Miami team.


SG James Anderson also had a fine tournament

And then there's Oklahoma State's James Anderson, who played stellar as well in leading his Cowboys to a deeper tournament run than anyone could have expected. His game's more well-rounded and he'd probably be a better fit for Jestorball. It's well-known the New Jersey Nets crave Anderson, so the Heat moving up into the Top 10 could mean Miami sniping Brooklyn's favorite target just before the 11th pick rolls around.


The Gasol-less Top 10 pick, Hassan Whiteside

Finally, Marshall's big man Hassan Whiteside, who would almost certainly be the selection if the Heat are without Pau Gasol, in the Top 10, and without a fitting replacement in the starting lineup.

Thus, while things may be quiet now, there's still potential for explosive movement as the offseason goes on and the draft nears.

***

Context Notes
You'll see articles on other teams in the league every once in a while. As one of my proteges remarked when I met him and another GM currently in the league at the Trump a couple weeks ago, I love storylines and tipping my hat to interesting ones like this shocker Suns side.

I gleed like a dork when I saw the Pau Gasol episode a few months ago during my CSI: Miami binge (I haven't finished the series yet, by the way. Still a couple more seasons to go). It was just so cool seeing Pau there, even if it was a typical cameo episode in many respects.

The 2014 draft class, which is the one being referenced here, was considered in the pre-draft hype to be the single best class in NLL history. So in that sense, missing the playoffs turned out to be a blessing in disguise. There were a ton of players I loved in this draft, as you can see from the short profiles of possible selections.

It'll be a few posts before we get to the draft itself, though. Offseasons on a team I run are rarely dull or inactive.

Some Obvious Picks, Some Not

Mr. Obvious MVP himself, Chris Paul

MVP
Chris Paul
Finished 4th in league-wide MVP of the Year voting behind Lebron James, Mike Conley, Jr., and Dwayne Wade. 23.2 points ranked 2nd in the league behind Wade and 1.8 steals tied for 10th with Kevin Durant and Gilbert Arenas. Also averaged 6.8 assists and 3.8 rebounds, with 4.1 A/TO ratio. Shot 46.3% from the floor, 39.9% from 3 point range. Most telling MVP note: The team lost almost every game he was out with injury.

Most Improved
Daequan Cook
Received a third place vote for Most Improved Player in the league. Averaged career-high 10.6 points and 1.3 steals with additional personal bests in FG shooting (48.8%) and three-point accuracy (41.2%). Rated highly by GM Jestor in the Paul offseason trade and proved his worth in his first season as a full-time starter.

Rookie of the Year
Milovan Rakovic
A by default award, as Sergio Llull and Derrick Byars were dealt to Houston. 2.2 points, 2.4 rebounds, 47.6% shooting in 11.2 minutes in 43 appearances. Will never be anything more than an end of bench player.

Best Newcomer
Aleks Maric
Almost the entire team was new, as Jestor engaged in a virtually complete roster turnover, but the most valuable in-season acquisition was Maric, who showed ability to play both post spots and led the Heat to its only Paul-less triumph. More importantly, the second year big man gives Miami much-needed youth down low and will be a #2 or #3 option for years to come.

Surprise Gem of the Year
Marcus Banks
Although Ricky Davis was the biggest name in the swap with the Los Angeles Clippers, it was actually Banks who Jestor wanted most. The minsal veteran posted a team-high 4.4 A/TO ratio and improved his shooting percentages across the board and had arguably his best season. He also supplanted Steve Francis, another candidate for this award, who was also in a 6th Man of the Year possibility before Banks' arrival.

Sources Say Heat Won't Stay At #14

What sort of wizardry will devilish Heat GM Jestor come up with next?

According to a source speaking on condition of anonymity and fear of being turned into a new, the chances of the Miami Heat picking at #14 in the upcoming draft is, "slim and none, and we all know what happened to slim."

Speculation has it that Heat GM Jestor in deep in discussions with several teams about the selection, including a possible move up into the Top 10, or a trade for a player who will benefit the playoff and possible championship team more than a raw draft pick would.

It's also believed Miami is now opening to move the 14th or the 29th pick separately, provided the right situation or player becomes available. In fact, the insider said the current most fruitful conversation involves the 14th overall pick and a key player being sent for a star who will position the Heat to be even stronger than their late-season, yet just shy surge indicates they'll be heading into next year.

Several of the conversations have involved one team or another getting involved in the sign and trade game, but Miami is taking a much more careful route in that direction after last offseason's infamous Monty Myles debacle, in which Jestor loudly claimed that Myles had "All-Star, if not franchise potential."

In other news, interest is sparking in Pau Gasol, but thus far it appears as though the Heat are worlds apart from finding the right fit for trading partner and return. A few within the organization say it's becoming more and more likely that the Spaniard, who carries a declining contract over the next few seasons, will stay in South Florida.

The whispers of the Heat being more open to draft pick trading, rather than a simple packaging of 14 and 29 to move up into the Top 10, should open up more discussions and negotiations, making it even more likely the 14th pick will not rest in Miami in the end. One thing seems clear, however, and that's the Heat still declining to trade down, unless it involves a future first, in 2014 or 2015. What seems far more likely is Miami trading up or out of the 14th spot.

Surprises Galore in Store

Madcap Mario, our fearless mocker

I've been hearing some crazy scuttlebutt that says Cleveland's gone #2, Orlando's going to #4 and Houston's going to #9. I don't know if it's true or not, but I'm Madman Mario, so I'm going to say it is true and do my mock that way. If you don't like it, go shove up a pipe up your arse, you prissy princess pussy!

1. PG John Wall - Kentucky - Dallas Mavericks
This one's a certainty. Wall's been golden all along and crazy good in the pre-draft camps. Nick Calathes and Manatas Kalnietis are both pass-first points, so my bet is Wall starts, Calathes is the backup, and the Mavericks spin Kalnietis into something or stash him as a third guard.

2. F Patrick Patterson - Kentucky - Cleveland Cavaliers
What do you get the team who has everything at this spot? A versatile forward who can plug in at SF and PF. The Cavs have swingmen galore and a good number of centers, but what would really help their depth is a SF/PF youngster who could also be Richard Jefferson's heir.

3. PF Ed Davis - North Carolina - Utah Jazz
Forget all the stuff you've heard about the Jazz taking Evan Turner if he falls this far. The Jazz need a legitimate big man in the worst way and some consider Davis the highest-ceiling big in the draft. For a team that's putting a 6'8 SF and a 6'10 PF at the 4 and 5 spots, Davis is a welcome change.

4. SG Evan Turner - Ohio State - Orlando Magic
Orlando don't care about players who have crappy camps and Turner, who was figuring to be #1 or #2 all along, will be a perfect fit for Demar DeRozan's running mate. Kobe Bryant to the Magic Kingdom blocks this, you say? Pish. Bryant and DeRozan to run the show the next year or two, Turner and DeRozan for years after.

5. PF Greg Monroe - Georgetown - Indiana Pacers
I hear the Pacers were interested in Davis, Monroe, and DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins has a lot of questions about him, so I'm betting he's the one that got knocked out after private workouts. Monroe's passing game plus that of Luke Nevill's, make this Pacers team a very interesting to watch, especially if they dump the Walter Sharpe mistake and get rid of the overrated Tyreke Evans.

6. SF Wesley Johnson - Syracuse - Los Angeles Lakers
Lakers love defense, but they also need somebody to score the ball outside of ancient Gilbert Arenas and the ordinary on D Marcus Williams. Enter the Johnson, who can give Los Angeles a stellar 1-2-3 attack, with 2 and 3 set for the future while they work on the other pieces.

7. SF Al-Farouq Aminu - Wake Forest - Oklahoma City Thunder
Things are starting to come together in OKC but they need to re-sign PG Shaun Livingston and they need, more than anything, legitimate wing players who shoot accurately from the outside, rather than their collection of castoffs. Johnson would have been the perfect fit for their needs, but they'll settle for taking a raw defensive specialist in Aminu.

8. C Demarcus Cousins - Kentucky - Toronto Raptors
The one odd piece in the Raptors' youth movement is PF, with Zach Randolph. Here's Cousins to be his heir apparent. The Raptors could give a damn about certain flaws; they're confident in their ability to make the most of players that others overlook. If they can make something of Cousins, this could be the steal of the draft.

9. C Hassan Whiteside - Marshall - Houston Rockets
The Rockets need help pretty much everywhere, but by grabbing Whiteside here they salvage some of the burn of missing out on the most noteworthy bigs they could have had at #2, like Davis. Whiteside alongside Ante Tomic is a start, but only a start, to what will be a long and grueling rebuilding project.

10. SG James Anderson - Oklahoma State - Dallas Mavericks
Anderson stormed his way up the charts with a sensational NCAA tournament and the Mavericks, who need scorers, are delighted he falls this far. Wall and Anderson will make a deadly pairing in the backcourt for years to come.

11. SF Quincy Pondexter - Washington - New Jersey Nets
The Nets are pissed they get cockblocked out of JA by a single pick, but they'll settle for Pondexter, their second choice, even though what they really need to do to be successful is to stop tanking by doing obvious stuff like starting Andrea Bargnani at SG. Yeah, I know.

12. SF Donatas Motiejunas - Golden State Warriors
Golden State imploded last year, finishing in the lottery even in the weak West. Worse still, they lost 7 out of their last 8 games. Their youngest player of any real value is 28, so this is an old team. The Warriors need to blow the team up and a good way of rebuilding is by adding Moteijunas, who while raw, has incredible potential and is already a terrific passer and handler.

13. SG Aubrey Coleman - Houston - Washington Wizards
Basically, the Wizards are at a crossroads. But no matter what direction they go in after years of disappointing results, they need an accurate outside shooter, and Coleman looks like he could fit the bill perfectly, as well as brace against the inevitable crash of Wally Szczerbiak. He'll fit in beautifully with either a going for it or a rebuild.

14. SF Paul George - Fresno State - Miami Heat
The Heat are known to be looking for a legitimate SF, as they're not thrilled with Mike Miller. George has been predicted for Miami for quite some time now and his defensive promise and reported disinclination to take shots would allow for Chris Paul, Aleks Maric, and Pau Gasol to be the Big Three on offense.

15. C Artsiom Parakhouski - Radford - San Antonio Spurs
Another mocked pick and one that makes sense for San Antonio. He's considered by some to be the best of the remaining bigs, and the sooner the Spurs get 31 year old Reggie Evans out of there with a younger upgrade, the better. Parakhouski is that upgrade.

***

Context Notes
Another small recap article, somewhat generic trade chatter article that I can't remember now what all trade talks I had going on with different people, and a Top 15 mock draft to give you an idea of where how I thought it might shake.

Of course, if I kept 14 and Parakhouski got to me, there was no way in hell he was going any further. I loved what I saw of him in scouting and from what I recall, he had a decent draft camp too.

Draft camps no longer exist in NLL, by the way. That was a mgtr81 innovation which ended with his retirement as rookie head, starting with last year's class.

We've revived it in GAH, though, for the past handful of drafts.. I believe the Kevin McHale class was the first one to get a draft camp thanks to Manu being open to us starting it again. We've also changed the format - rather than one of us running it and doing the writeups for it, we rotate it among the different GMs in the league. Works beautifully, in my opinion. Shares the workload and gets GMs more interested in following along, as every GM has their own writing style and way of presenting information.

Oh, and Mad* Mario isn't a recurring character. Just a one off for this mock.

Jestor Outraged At Influx of Southeast Talent; Team Narrows Draft Dreams

This poor iPhone found itself hurled across the room and damaged after news came through of the trades

"That's the worst god damned trade in the history of the (expletive) NLL! (Expletive) (Expletive) (Expletive) (Expletive) fool GMs in the West! No wonder the (expletive) West gets its (expletive) ass kicked every damned year!"

The above was an excerpt leaked to us by a confidential informant, who said they witnessed Miami Heat GM Jestor erupt into a hurricane of fury upon hearing of the Jrue Holiday and Tadija "Dragon" Dragicevic trade between the Charlotte Bobcats and the Denver Nuggets.

In no uncertain terms, Jestor blasted Denver in the deal, calling it an outrage as he flung his iPhone across the room, where it hit the wall and cracked. It was yet another dose of bad news for the Miami Heat, as the Bobcats not only got a steal in trading the young, but projected to be no more than league average Holiday for an equally young, but much more talented forward in Dragicevic, but the Orlando Magic traded a package of picks to land Knicks legend Kobe Bryant.

The sudden rush of talent in the Southeast is making Miami's task of getting to the playoffs next season far more difficult and the deals have begun shifting the balance of power, suggesting that Orlando and Charlotte could be the ones fighting for the Southeast crown, with Miami lagging behind and fighting for an 8 seed, and the Wizards in their rebuild phase after years of underachievement.

More significantly, it appears that the Heat might well be staying put, going with the core that just missed the playoffs last year when they should have been in, using their draft picks and the MLE to strengthen the team.

Rumored Top 5 Choices At #14
None of the people we talked to had any idea where the Heat might go at #29, but all of them had opinions on #14 and we came up with a consensus Top 5 list of who the Heat might take.

In no particular order:


SF Donatas Motiejunas
Miami's been talking about him all offseason long and Dirk 2.0 would be an immediate starter at SF, giving the Heat one of the tallest 3-5 frontcourts in the league. May or may not be there at 14, although many predict he will still be there at the end of the lottery.


C Ekpe Udoh
Baylor big would be Pau Gasol's heir apparent and likely take over for Devon Hardin as the Heat's top big man off the bench. Given the Heat's injury problems with Gasol last year, taking a big at 14, even if they keep Gasol as seems likely, makes a lot of sense. Udoh is the safest pick, based on the scouting the Heat's done of the big men in this draft. Almost certain to be there at 14.


SF Paul George
Doesn't have the sizzling upside of Dirk 2.0, especially on the offensive end, but he's a shutdown defender waiting to happen, and on a Miami team that doesn't have any lockdown defenders, with perhaps the exception of Chris Paul, George could be the glue guy and new SF starter they need. A lock to be there at 14, as virtually no one seems to have talked about him. He could even slide down into the 20s, should the Heat pass on him, something that never would happened before the Bulls and Bobcats showed what offense-engineered teams could do, and before the Blazers flamed out due to going all-defense.


PG Willie Warren
The front office fell in love with him in scouting, so much so that if he's there at 14, he's a strong candidate to have his name called. Although listed as a point guard, Warren seems to be much more in the mold of a combo guard and if he's taken, Miami's likely to run a lineup of Chris Paul/Warren/Daequan Cook/Aleks Maric/Gasol, unless they get a true starting SF in free agency with their MLE. In fact, Jestor allegedly called Warren's game "the most beautiful thing I've seen since Adriana Lima". As the recent Spurs article indicates, Warren is shooting up the draft boards from his 20s placement and is now almost certain to go in the lottery.


PG Alexey Shved
If Warren is the perfect combo guard in the Heat's eyes, then Shved is the perfect floor general. It's a move that doesn't make sense to a lot of people, since Miami already has Paul and have vowed to bring back Marcus Banks in free agency, but drafting the class's best pass-first PG wouldn't be a bad thing from a bargaining chip perspective. It's also worth noting that the Heat only won once when Paul struggled with injuries throughout the season, in part because they lacked a starting-calibre distributor. Shved can be that guy, and right now.

Edit: This does not, of course, include players who may fall, or a rumored move by Miami up into the Top 10.

Possible Deal Could Signal Heat Going Big At #14

Could Devon Hardin be playing elsewhere by the end of the draft?

There's growing speculation that the Miami Heat could trade C Devon Hardin. From reports, the Heat have been talking to several teams about the 27 year old to be big man who is also a $5.2 million expiring contract.

If a trade materializes, it likely signals Miami taking a big man, such as Baylor's Epke Udoh or Radford's Artsiom Parakhouski with the 14th overall pick.

Context Notes
Draft gets revealed next post, and I may try something a little different for that one rather than just post the article and have the context notes after that.

This was a very stressful offseason. The Magic are exceptional at making trades and the Bobcats have had strong GMs ever since I've been on the league (more on the changeover that eventually happened later). So between us, Orlando, and Charlotte, you had three stellar GMs all in the Southeast.

Washington had a long-time GM who could put together teams that looked great on paper, but failed to deliver almost every single season. Atlanta used to be the class of the division, but are really struggling right now with a rebuild process a GM who isn't able to be as active as he'd like to be.

Enjoying it. We have a lot of similarities in what we look for in players, but differ greatly on how we put teams together. I'm big into drafting and developing players while barely using free agency/trades. Great that there's multiple ways to build teams.

Thanks. :)

In theory, I love drafting and developing players, but I love trading so much that it ends up being the default way I construct my teams. I hate, hate, -hate- free agency. I hate it with player agents and I hate it with the in-game system. The only time I usually spend a lot in FA is if I'm splashing the cash to re-sign my own guys who I know have worked in my system. I'm -extremely- risk-adverse with free agency.

Just a note that I'll be picking this up again soon, but it will have a finite ending as far as this chapter goes.. I'm leaving the NLL once this current season concludes (don't worry, we're about 3 or 4 seasons behind in terms of the article postings so there's a while to go yet before we get there), and under league rules, once a GM leaves, they have to sit out a full season before they can even apply to return.

Chances are, I won't return, because I hate the changes they made to the scouting and draft process so much, I no longer care about the offseason. I hated it last year when they made the switch, but decided to give it another shot. Hated it even more this season with the changes they made.

I'm one of those guys who can only get into a draft if there's a college season accompanying it, and/or monthly mock drafts. Otherwise, the prospects are *shrug* whatever. Historical leagues mitigate this somewhat by giving you an idea of how the players will be, but still.

Heading into the draft, we all knew John Wall was going #1 to the Dallas Mavericks, and that happened. But the Mavericks also had the #10 pick and they wound up taking Artsiom Parakhouski, the guy from Radford who I wrote an article on earlier. He was a guy I was really hoping would fall to me if I didn't trade up.

And the guy I wanted to trade up for, I ironically tried to trade up for at #10 and every pick after, but failed. And I wasn't the only one trying to move in to get this one particular guy. The archrival Magic were trying to cut in, and so were the Denver Nuggets (You start to see how weird this gets when you consider my overall DDS history). A few other teams were too, I think, though I don't remember who all. I just know he was high on a lot of teams' radars.

Try, try, try, fail, fail, fail.

Then pick #13 comes. The guy everyone is trying to get is still on the board. Orlando is putting sever pressure on the Washington Wizards to force a deal, because that's what Erick does - he browbeats other GMs into making rip off trades that favor him.

Fortunately, the Wizards reject all trade offers he's getting bombarded with and selects...

James Anderson - Oklahoma State.

Cue the cheering and screaming for joy as I run around my upstairs bedroom in the house I share with three roommates. (Fortunately they were all gone at the time so I didn't have to explain myself). Type up the article and shoot out the door for a victory smoke.

With the 14th overall pick in the 2013 NLL Draft, the Miami Heat select...

























There's a picture of the guy here, but I can't access since it's in the archives and it won't let me hit the edit button to get the URL.
G Willie Warren - Oklahoma

There was jubilation and celebration at both Miami Heat parties, one in South Beach at the team arena, the other in Las Vegas at the New York-New York Casino, where a jubilant Jestor danced up a frenzied storm and immediately announced a free roller coaster ride for everyone in attendance.

"We absolutely loved Willie's game when we brought him in for a private workout", beamed Jestor. "It's a bit of risky selection going on such limited scouting perhaps, but we also really liked his performances in the pre-draft camps. He was also rated as a Top 10 pick earlier in the season and in fact we've been trying to trade up ever since pick #10 to get him.

Although we don't know his role on the team just yet, because there's still training camp and all of that to go through, but he'll be a key part of the rotation, perhaps even the starting shooting guard and moving Daequan Cook to SF.

He exemplifies the type of high ceiling ball security, passing ability, shooting accuracy, and high ceiling scoring talent we expect out of an ideal two guard in the Jestorball system."

On the wall behind Jestor was a giant UNLV Rebels flag with the number 31 below Hey Reb, the words Miami Loves Exceptions beside the number.

Some commentators have speculated the confluence of school, number and words, are an obvious reference. Others talked about how Warren's selection will affect the playing time and status of Mike Miller, Anthony Morrow, and free agent Marcus Banks.

***

That wall thing will become important as you'll see in a bit. We also had pick #29 and despite a lot of people jockeying to get to the selection, we ultimately kept it.

With the 29th Overall Pick in the 2013 NLL Draft, the Miami Heat select















Picture/Archive/yaddayadda
PF Michael Washington - Arkansas

Miami Heat GM Jestor's old Razorbacks loyalty came in here, but is this going to be the sort of disastrous late first round Hog pick that Sonny Weems was in Jestor's lone Orlando Magic draft?

"We certainly don't think so", Jestor said from the Heat's draft party in Miami, having flown there from Las Vegas shortly after the acclaimed Willie Warren selection.

"Although we didn't formally scout Michael, we took a look at the league-wide reports and examined his pre-draft camp games, where he showed very good shooting accuracy, an ability to rebound aggressively, and good enough discipline and handling from our vantage point to warrant the selection. I remember seeing his excellent play at the University of Arkansas as well, where he had to play center because of such a small lineup.

More importantly, he gives a huge jolt to our bench big situation. As you all know, after Devon Hardin, our frontcourt depth gets extremely weak. So should something happen to one of our starters, or should something to Devon, we now have Michael to turn to and we're looking forward to seeing his career play out.

Oh, and one more thing. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! PIG SOOIE!"

****

Washington and Rotnei Clarke were the only two guys who didn't suck ass on the Hogs in real life when I was there. Since then, I've made it a policy not to draft Arkansas players, putting them on my Bad College list alongside Minnesota, Yale, and Nevada. The difference between Arkansas and those three schools though, is that I don't mind having a Razorback on the team, even though I ultimately didn't love it in Fayetteville like I do in Las Vegas. I didn't hate it there, either, but it just was not the sort of town I could ever, -ever- see myself living.

Those other three? Forget having one of them on any of my teams - Minnesota because of the Lost Year, Yale because of my still present Princeton loyalty despite the heartbreak every time I see Old Nassau anywhere, and Nevada because fuck UNR - Even if I do go to school again elsewhere, I will always maintain UNLV love and adopt a dual-college loyalty if nothing else.

Anyway, this pick got mixed reviews and I admit I did it blind.

We also had a late 2nd round pick, and obviously at this point, it's flier time.

With the 25th pick in the 2nd round of the 2013 NLL draft, the 55th overall pick, the Miami Heat select...
















Picture should go here, but yeah.
Forward Tasmin Mitchell - LSU

Miami Heat GM Jestor was completely frank about the team's third selection in the draft, just as he was about the debatable Michael Washington selection at #29.

"By this time, every single player we scouted that we had even a remote interest in was gone. It came down to needing some youth for our forward situation, especially since we still don't know how things are going to play out with Jon Brockman.

We scoured the lists and read and re-read our reports from the pre-draft camps. We hit upon Tasmin for his rebounding and defense out of the forward spot, much like what Brockman gave us last year. We then double and triple-checked to make sure he wasn't taken, because somebody on the staff swore Tasmin went off the board, but when we combed the draft list three times, his name never appeared.

So he's our selection now. To be honest, he's a late second-round pick. He's going to be fighting for minutes with a lot of players and I wouldn't be surprised to see him refine his game out in Albuquerque his first year and try to break into the rotation his second season.

His shot needs work, but the thing that jumped out at us is that he had 0 turnovers in all 50 minutes of the pre-draft games. That's what we like to see in Jestorball.

But we'll see what happens with Jon and we'll see what Tasmin shows us when we hit training camp."

***

This is why I get pissed when leagues don't at least have draft camp games for their draft scouting process. It's critical to have *some* sort of metric to go off, especially when you're in the second round and you're trying to do more than select a name out of a hat.

As you can see from all three of our picks, they're also a significant part of our drafting strategy, along with NCAA postseason performance, which is only possible in leagues where mgtr81 is involved - like in the NLL when he was Rookie Head, and in GAH, where he and I co-commish.

This was one of his drafts, and he said Mitchell was a really good pick this late in the second.

Mitchell was also very much a system guess pick.

So those were our three selections for the draft. Now it was on to the offseason and the usual chaos that surrounds any team I run in an MP league.

Light Speed Improvement of Other Southeast Teams Adding to Miami Management's Anxiety

The Miami Heat could use a Derrick McKey right about now

We first reported it as a side note in the playoffs edition of Miami offseason rumors, but it's happened again. The team that's offering, among other things, one of the league's best young big men and a guaranteed lottery pick in next year's draft for Chris Paul, is further pressing the Miami Heat to rebuild by trading away Pau Gasol and filing a T-Mac exemption.

Although emphatically rejected the first time it was offered, the situation has now changed enough that it appears Heat GM Jestor is seriously considering it, and the sleepless nights are starting.

According to one anonymous source, "The front office is freaked out over how much Orlando and Charlotte have improved. Cleveland is Cleveland and Detroit is Detroit still, so they're asking themselves if it's really worth it to settle for at best a mid playoff seed and get trampled by the elite teams in the East year after year. Gasol's not getting any younger and Miami would hate to waste CP3's prime."

There's also the issue of Miami still having done nothing to address the gaping hole at SF. Although the Heat drew plaudits for capturing Willie "Wonder" Warren with the #14 pick, their selection of Michael Washington at the 29th spot has met with mixed reviews, several analysts expressing shock Miami didn't try to get a SF there. It's well-known Jestor highly covets Shawn Marion, not least because of their shared UNLV connection, but with Miami unable to offer more than the MLE unless two of three of Mike Miller, Steve Francis, and Devon Hardin are traded, with no salary coming back, the Heat appear out of the running.

Worse still, Marion figures to be aggressively pursue by Miami's money-flush Southeast rivals, the Charlotte Bobcats and Orlando Magic, with the winner almost certainly guaranteed to capture the Southeast and the loser looking a lock to take second place, leaving Miami and a rebuilding Atlanta to fight for third.

The Heat could have addressed their void at the 3 by acquiring Rashard Lewis, but it would have meant a perilously thin bench heading into next season, as well as the loss of Washington, who, while panned by several experts, gives a much needed boost to a shaky frontcourt depth. Miami also refused the offer because they wanted Marion above all and planned to show him they did it, in the words of Janet Jackson, "all for you".

Miami basketball fans aren't the only ones anxious over a possible rebuild. The team's marketing department is furious over the rumors, as they've been planning a campaign around the Wonderpaul backcourt that should emerge in the next couple of seasons, complete with yet to be released title song.

Should the Heat rebuild, they're likely looking at the following lineup heading into next season, assuming no other changes to the roster:

PG: Marcus Banks (If re-signed as planned) (32)
SG: Daequan Cook (26)
SF: Mike Miller (33 - expiring next season)
PF: Mysterious young big
C: Aleks Maric (25)
6th: Willie "Wonder" Warren

And with Francis, Hardin, and Miller all expiring, that would give the Heat a lottery pick, plus a ton of cash next free agency to be able to make a splash as one of the league's top young up and coming teams, with franchise player in the making Warren, the big, and Maric forming a supremely talented Big Three, the PG of the future likely to come with the 2014 lottery pick.

But would the league even agree to the T-Mac exemption, even as the Heat's lawyers are preparing a presentation? And ultimately, the real question at the end of the day is, would Jestor be happy without CP3, the franchise face who finished in the top 3 in PER, got voted an All-Star starter, received MVP votes, gave the Miami Heat the identity it'd lacked, and nearly led them back to the playoffs after a three year absence?

The answer to that last question may ultimately decide where Miami goes.

Blockbuster CP3 Deal A Given If Big Man Traded; T-Mac Granted

What country will Pau Gasol dominate next?

Word on the street is, the Miami Heat will be trading Chris Paul if Pau Gasol is traded and if the T-Mac exemption is granted, and the team he's going to, as well as the return for CP3 are essentially established.

But before that big-time blockbuster can happen, the big man, Mr. Gasol, needs to leave his South Florida home. Let's take a look at some possible destinations.

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics
Won't happen. The C's are loaded with large contracts for veteran players, which would hurt Miami's T-Mac eligibility. Of course, as a side note, there was that botched Gasol for Emeka Okafor deal under the prior Boston management.

New Jersey Nets
Still awaiting word on the Greg Monroe deal. If that happens, they have the cap space to take on Gasol, and could offer an attractive package. They might be interested in Pau, as PG/Williams/Monroe/Gasol/Griffin suddenly makes the Nets an exciting team, one that could push for a playoff spot in the East and be good for the next several seasons.

New York Knicks
Knicks are in firm rebuild and won't add a veteran player.

Philadelphia 76ers
Probably not, as they already have Beasley/Stoudamire/Thabeet and Jestor hates Thabeet.

Toronto Raptors
They plan to build around Dozier and Varnado, their recent first round pick. On the other hand, adding Gasol would make them the prohibitive favorites in the Atlantic and they have the cap space. Then again, they don't have their pick in 2014, so it would have to be a 2016 1st, which could well happen.

Central

Chicago Bulls
Gasol would definitely fit with Chicago's offensive mantra and the Bulls have cap space. But the Bulls are rumored to be heavily pursuing Kevin Love and will they still be interested in Gasol if they get the young big from the Bobcats?

Cleveland Cavaliers
A very real possibility. Remember the Richard Jefferson for Omer Asik trade last offseason? Gasol would make the Cavs an incredibly strong and deep team in the frontcourt and he could play a Jefferson switcharound role.

Detroit Pistons
They've got Amir and Oden and are already in cap problems trying to re-sign Swift. Won't happen.

Indiana Pacers
Rebuilding, so a no go.

Milwaukee Bucks
The center position was the weakest spot for the Bucks last year, so it's reasonable to think they'll be extremely interested in Gasol. But salary matching will be a problem.

Washington Wizards
They're at a crossroads, but Gasol would be a massive talent upgrade over Hunter. A combination of expiring contracts, like the ancient, faded Ginobli and someone else, plus a future first could make this deal work, if the Wizards decide to still gun for the playoffs.

Southeast

Atlanta Hawks
Rumored to be rebuilding, so unlikely.

Charlotte Bobcats
Loaded with talented young bigs galore, although Gasol would fit in with the offensive scheme. They're likely looking more at defense and rebounding, such as Chicago's Bynum, but anything's possible.

Orlando Magic
The Magic certainly have the resources and the cap space to pursue Gasol, and he'd be a great complement to DeAndre Jordan. But will Jestor want to trade Gasol to his Florida rival?

Dallas Mavericks
Rebuilding, so unlikely. They're shopping Crawford, after all.

Houston Rockets
Rebuilding, but you never know what GM Gary Chan will do.

Memphis Grizzlies
Rebuilding, so no.

New Orleans Hornets
Would be an upgrade over Spencer Hawes in the post and give the rising Hornets precisely the high-quality veteran player and captain young New Orleans needs. They also have the cap space and adding Gasol moves the Hornets up into the next level of West teams.

San Antonio Spurs
They want Gasol back and have been one of the few teams actively lobbying for him. He'd be a huge upgrade in the post upon his return to the Spurs, but salary cap matching will be an issue. The Spurs would also have to almost certainly include their 2016 1st to have any chance, since their 2015 1st is untradeable.

Northwest

Denver Nuggets
Hard to tell what they're going to do exactly, but Gasol would improve their situation considerably. Perhaps the expiring Bogut and a future 1st that's likely to be late?

Minnesota Timberwolves
They're shopping Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett for future firsts, which also complicates the Gasol picture, but Gasol is 4 years younger than both of them, cheaper than Garnett, and will be productive for much longer than either of those two. Perhaps something around Garnett's expiring and a future first will land the proven Gasol with the Timberwolves as they strive to again be one of the West's top teams.

Oklahoma City Thunder
A major improvement over Ike Diogu Mr. Gasol will be, but the question is, do the Thunder think they're ready to step up into the West postseason race?

Portland Trailblazers
They need offense in the worst possible way, so Gasol would be a major boon for the Trailblazers in their quest to return to the top of the West. But matching salaries will be a major problem, and although Jestor loves UNLV players, Joel Anthony is not his type of guy at all.

Utah Jazz
Rebuilding, so no.

Pacific

Golden State Warriors
Rebuilding, so no.

Los Angeles Clippers
They have draft picks and they'll have cap space after they renounce Chandler. They'll also have a huge hole at center, one that could be filled very nicely with Gasol. Probably one of the strongest candidates to land him.

Los Angeles Lakers
Rebuilding, so no.

Phoenix Suns
Salary matching is a huge problem and they're already having to worry about retaining Haddadi next offseason. Although Gasol would be an upgrade over Boozer.

Sacramento Kings
Almost anyone is an improvement over the playoff-sucking Ming, but as with many teams, salary matching is a problem.

Final Analysis
Gasol, if he's traded, will almost certainly go to a West team who needs him to move up to the next level. The Clippers, Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Hornets all look like strong candidates, and if the Spurs can work a three-way to bring more palatable pieces to Miami, they have to be considered contenders as well.

Willie "Wonder" Warren, Michael Washington, Tasmin Mitchell Newest Heat

Oklahoma's G Willie "Wonder" Warren was a hot prospect

The Miami Heat entered the 2013 NLL Draft with three draft picks and left with three players, despite repeated rumors and efforts to package #14 and #29 into the Top 10. Even with the lack of trades, Miami still landed its #1 target, G Willie "Wonder" Warren from the University of Oklahoma, with the 14th overall pick. Warren was one of the most coveted prospects in the draft, as the Heat, Magic, and Nuggets all warred to try and move up to take Warren from the 10th pick on, with the Nuggets nearly achieving it at #13, a pick in front of Miami.

Wonder's strengths include incredible upside as a ballhandler and scorer, with tantalizing shooting, defense, and basketball understanding potentials. He's drawn comparisons to Chauncey Billups, a player capable of playing either guard spot flawlessly. It's possible he could start his rookie season, but what seems more likely is that he comes off the bench as Daequan Cook's understudy and then takes over in Year 2. Miami's marketing department still hopes Chris Paul stays with the team so the Wonderpaul backcourt can be utilized as a campaign for years to come.

In fact, the only knock on Warren is a suspect consistency, but Eric Musselman and the rest of the Heat staff will work with him to develop a more consistent and accurate game. That inconsistency was apparent in the Sooners' Sweet 16 game, where Warren flamed out with a horrible performance, directly responsible for Oklahoma's defeat.

On the other hand, he had an excellent pre-draft camp, playing extremely well in three games, after a clunker in Game 1.


Although he comes with questions, C Michael Washington addressed a weak area for Miami

C Michael Washington from the University of Arkansas was taken with the 29th pick. Criticized for his lack of basketball understanding and discipline after playing his senior year on a underachieving, poorly coached Razorbacks squad, he nonetheless brings exceptional consistency and already ranks as the Heat's best shotblocker. He also has amazing rebounding potential and could become a better player than some think he currently projects.

It's hard to say what will happen as a result of the Pau Gasol trade, but what's clear is that Washington will see playing time in his rookie season. He'll battle Devon Hardin for the Heat's first big off the bench in the pre-Gasol makeup and figures to add defensive toughness, blocking and rebounding Miami needed in the post, no matter what amount of time he receives.

Washington's selection also makes it certain Miovan Rakovic will not see the floor much unless there's injuries, a feat Miami's front office was quite eager to achieve.

Like Warren, Washington had an excellent game, showing off some fantastic shooting accuracy and rebounding prowess, with far fewer fouls than one of his believed suspect discipline would suggest.


LSU's SF Tasmin Mitchell could be more relevant than most late 2nd rounders

Finally, with the 55th overall pick, 25th in the 2nd round, the Heat took a flier on LSU SF Tasmin Mitchell. Lauded as a great value pick for that late stage in the draft, it was Mitchell's 0 turnovers in 50 minutes that earned him the status of drafted player, rather than an UDRFA as the final mock draft predicted.

He's a player almost nobody in the league, including the Heat, have any real information on. Thus, his progress, ability and playing time will remain a mystery until teams head into offseason workouts and training camp. What isn't puzzling, however, is why Miami took him. With an old Mike Miller the only true SF on the roster, the Heat needed youth, and Mitchell's purported defensive ability and the ball security he showed during the pre-draft games were enough for Miami to eagerly snap him up.

No matter what happens, it already appears that these three players make up the most successful draft Jestor has ever had, after he took Sonny Weems and Walter Sharpe in the late first and early 2nd respectively in Orlando, and after drafting Sergio Llull, Derrick Byars, and Rakovic last year in Miami.

None of the players are with their original teams, but Wonder Warren, at least, should stick out of this group, and it's quite possible that Washington and Mitchell will too.

***

Context Notes
We were definitely mulling over a rebuild mode and the deal offered to us was one that cost me quite a bit of sleep. As it turns out, I did in fact do a draft recap with pictures, so there you go. :D

As it turns out, this wasn't the only time I've done a team by team brochure for a player I heavily shopped. I did it with Ron Artest in Orlando as well in my first NLL stint, though I'd forgotten about it until mgtr81 pointed it out.

Maric, Warren Confirmed Starters

SG Willie Warren - #14 overall pick, 360 box cover star, summer league starter

The Miami Heat announced today the sending of rookies Willie "Wonder" Warren, Tasmin Mitchell, and Michael Washington to the Summer League along with Aleks Maric, Milovan Rakovic, Anthony Morrow, and recently renounced Leo Lyons. Jon Brockman was also initially selected, but was ruled ineligible due to number of years in the league, although the Heat have to this point retained his rights.

Warren, the #14 overall pick in the most recent draft, and Maric are confirmed starters for the Alonzo Mourning Academy alongside PG Petteri Koponen, SF Earl Clark, and PF Epke Udoh of the New Orleans Hornets to form a team that is already popularly being called the Heatnets.

"We're very excited to see how the team performs in the Summer League and hope we can do Zo proud in winning the summer league", said Heat GM Jestor.


All eyes will be on C Aleks Maric to see what he does this summer

Maric, one of the biggest captures in last year's Miami Heat extreme makeover, figures to be the focal point of the Heatnets offense and could very well end up a contender for Summer League MVP honors. With the recent reports of Pau Gasol's verbal elsewhere, the Heat coaching staff will certainly be looking for a dominant summer showing from him, as Maric projects to step in as the starting center spot after the deal.

Equally of interest will be how ready Warren and Washington look, and just what kind of display Mitchell, one of the most mysterious draft picks, will put on.

Surveying the Division 3 Competition

The Heatnets will be playing against the Dominique Wilkins Academy, the Walt Frazier Academy, the Patrick Ewing Academy, and the Free Agent Academy. The last of these, the free agents, is not expected to mount a serious challenge for advancement out of pool play, even though the roster is not yet known.

Dominique Wilkins Academy
PG: Alexey Shved
SG: Danny Green
SF: Al Faoruq Aminu
PF: Greg Monroe
C: Joel Freeland

Sammy Mejia
Brian Zoubek
Eric Wallace
Jeff Pendergraph
Ndudi Ebi
JJ Hickson
*

Shved is the most prototypical floor general rookie and will pair well with Green to form an impressive backcourt. Monroe was a Top 5 selection and Freeland looks solid, but Aminu is extremely raw and the bench looks quite dubious, particularly in the frontcourt.

Walt Frazier Academy
PG: Jared Jordan
SG: Stephen Curry
SF:Wesley Johnson
PF: Alexis Ajinca
C: Cole Aldrich

Devan Downey
Cenk Akyol
Cedric Bozeman
Christian Eyenga
Stanley Robinson
Mouhamed Sene
Deron Washington

Deep and talented starting five with Curry, Johnson, Ajinca, and Aldrich is arguably the best 2-5 lineup in the summer league. But Jordan is a weak link and although the bench is deep in perimeter players, like the Wilkins Academy, the post bench play is suspect. Still, the Cavs influence, including two starters on the team with the best regular season record and the #2 overall pick, has to make them one of the favorites to advance out of the division.

Patrick Ewing Academy
PG: John Wall
SG: Courtney Lee
SF: Derrick Brown
PF: Artsiom Parakhouski
C: Luke Harangody

Nick Calathes
Milan Macvan
Solomon Alabi
Ahmad Nivins
Mile Ilic
Eden Bavcic
Gabe Manouke

Wall, Lee, and Parakhouski should make this a really fun team to watch and Alabi gives the Mavknicks the sort of qualiy frontcourt depth the other teams in the division don't really have. They also have a capable backup PG in Calathes. The real question mark here is center, with Harangody a surprise starter who will likely get overpowered by the likes of Maric and Aldrich.

Final Analysis
On paper the Walt Frazier Academy looks the strongest and deepest and the Rapingcavs should win the group. #2 seems to be a battle between the Heatnets and Mavknicks, with the Blazenethawks a fairly distant fourth and the Freescrubs a distant fifth.

Gasol Joins Clippers; Heat Receive Moon, Clippers 2014 1st

Injury concerns, decreased performance, and a lengthy contract led to Pau Gasol finally being traded from Miami

After a year and an offseason of rumors and one failed trade, C Pau Gasol is finally leaving South Florida. The Miami Heat officially announced a trade this afternoon that sends Gasol to the Los Angeles Clippers for defensive guru SF Jamario Moon and the Clippers' 2014 1st round pick (Top 8 protected).

Gasol, 33 next season, missed two months with a broken hand, and had a comparatively disappointing season, averaging 15.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks, his 50.6% shooting his worst since 2010 with the Spurs, and the 69.8% free throw shooting and 0.6 steals the lowest totals of his lengthy and storied career in the NLL. That said, he had some quality games after coming back from injury and had an impressive 1.3 turnovers a game, buying fully into the Heat's Jestorball philosophy with its emphasis on ball security.

"He's still very much an All-Star caliber player, and one of the better big men in the league", Heat GM Jestor said at the trade announcement press conference, "But when we took a look at the situation we were in as a team, we decided that this was the best move for us going forward. We wish him all the best with the Clippers."

Gasol immediately plugs the Clippers' largest hole in the lineup at center and gives the Red and White a fearsome starting five to be reckoned with in a weak West. That starting lineup is potent enough, the West lackluster enough, that the first round pick is likely a mid-late selection. On the other hand, it guarantees that the Miami Heat are back in next year's draft, barring a fluke bad season from the Clippers.

An anonymous source said that the Clippers were concerned about the potential for injury to Gasol, and were also a little leery of the financial commitment involved in taking him on, so they took some time to think about it, and also requested protection on the first as a cautionary measure.

The deal also immediately sheds $12.5 million from the Heat's payroll and suddenly make them a team capable of being free agent players, as they were already under the cap after renouncing all contracts save Jon Brockman, who the team kept in order to either bring back or explore sign and trade possibilities for.


SF Jamario Moon became so enthused about the idea of playing with his buddy Daequan Cook, he went out and got a Heat uniform right way

Miami searched all season long last year and hunted this offseason for a defensive, genuine SF who would defer to Chris Paul, Gasol, and later Aleks Maric. Moon becomes that player, a shutdown defender who knows his role, and who, important in the eyes of the Heat, has shown improved play in the postseason. He projects to step in the starting lineup immediately and give the Heat a defensive warrior and great chemistry guy. He's also signed to a very affordable contract, a flat-rate $3.5 million a year for the next 3 years, and at 31 in the upcoming season, should be a quality player for the length of the deal.

New Projected Starting Lineup (Of players currently on roster)
PG Chris Paul
SG Daequan Cook
SF Jamario Moon
PF Devon Hardin/Aleks Maric
C Aleks Maric/Devon Hardin

Other future effects
The Heat not only have $12.5 million added to their cap space and are back in the 2014 draft game, but they have Steve Francis's $7.1 million expiring, Devon Hardin's $5.2 million expiring and Mike Miller's $6.1 million expiring next season, giving them an additional $18.4 million off the books next year. Thus, no matter what direction they choose to go in, whether it's using the cap from the Gasol trade in this offseason, or whether they choose to let it ride, they'll be in the free agency conversation next year as well.

There's also the oft-rumored filing for T-Mac exemption on Chris Paul, an option that now becomes available with the trading of Gasol. Sources have said for weeks now that it involves a trade for a projected lottery first and one of the league's best young big men, which would give the Heat a lineup of, assuming no other changes, such as the return of Marcus Banks:

PG Steve Francis/Willie Warren
SG Daequan Cook
SF Jamario Moon
PF Young great
C Aleks Maric

"It's a tough decision", a West team scout said. "If it was us here in the West, we'd go for it, because it'd make the team a lot younger and make them flush with assets. But this is the East, where Cleveland and Detroit are juggernauts and the Heat are in the Southeast, where the Bobcats and the Magic are fast-rising powers."

Fans chanted for Paul to stay with the team, and indeed, at 28 years old next season, CP3 is in the prime of his career, and if the Heat spend wisely on a marquee player this season to fill the PF spot, such as Shawn Marion, they'll still have the financial warchest to go for another superstar next offseason and very quickly put themselves in the ranks of genuine title contenders.

What path the Heat ultimately take will be one of the most interesting storylines of what has already been an intriguing offseason in Miami.

****

Context Notes
So the Pau trade finally happened after the failed Boston Celtics Emeka Okafor deal last season and at the time, I thought I got the better deal. Defensive players were at a premium in the league then, and Moon was a guy I just really, really liked to be the defensive anchor at SF. I *think* the Clippers were a mid-tier team then. Would make sense given the pick and Pau's age.

Now it was to decide whether to file the T-Mac exception and deal away Chris Paul for that lottery first and prized young big man.

Mutual Agreement Scuttles CP3 T-Mac Possibility

Chris Paul will be bowling for the postseason with the Miami Heat after all

The latest reports out of Miami are that both sides have agreed the trade in principle for PG Chris Paul is officially dead. Heat GM Jestor was extremely hesitant about dealing his franchise face and the other team in the deal voiced concerns over the trade as well, citing the very real possibility that it would leave them with a huge hole in their lineup, with no way to fill it, even with CP3's addition.

"Not surprising", said one West conference front office executive. "CP3 was the core of the Heat's transformation from ho-hum bad team relying on an aging Richard Jefferson and Pau Gasol for their point production to exciting playoff contender with a relatively decent window to challenge for the Southeast crown and possibly the East Conference Finals. Ultimately, I think it came down on Miami's side to, would Jestor still be able to love the team when he woke up in the morning? The answer to that was quite clearly no."

The trade's collapse guarantees that the Heat won't be filing for a T-Mac on Paul, as there simply isn't another package out there that makes sense for Miami in terms of the MVP contender. It also means that Miami, who are now flush with cash after the Pau Gasol trade, will very definitely be free agent players as they seek to fill the power forward spot in the deepest free agent class in NLL history.

"You won't see the Heat repeat the Monty Myles disaster", an East Coast scout said. "They got lucky last time because of Houston's greed for a first round pick and Gary Chan's love of guards. Miami's going to be very careful who they pursue."

Other sources say the team will be looking for a third scoring star to put alongside Chris Paul and Aleks Maric, which could mean a hard run at the 76er's RFA Michael Beasley or, in what seems more likely given the front office's affinities, Washington's Shawn Marion, one of the marquee players in this year's free agent class. There's other possible options out there as well, as not all agencies have released their client list and not all the possible options have been combed through by the front office.

Brockman Next To Leave?

At least one team is interested in F Jon Brockman

Jon Brockman is the only player who wasn't renounced by the Heat and sources say the team kept his rights largely to explore sign and trade possibilities. According to one insider, Miami's been approached about Brockman and discussions are ongoing. The insider refused to comment on the likelihood of a possibility, but noted that given the list of players offered by the opposite team, any trade would "significantly affect Miami's approach to this offseason and next."

Brockman, originally the centerpiece for the Heat in a deal with the Charlotte Bobcats, played well on defense and in rebounding, but struggled to find his shot, either on the floor or at the charity stripe. He bounced from starting SF to starting PF (after the Gasol injury) to reserve. Rumor has it Brockman's Cubs loyalty clashes with Jestor's White Sox devotee status and could make a deal more likely.

Other Free Agency Tidbits
Look for the Heat to re-sign Marcus Banks. He played extremely well after coming from the Clippers last season, flourishing after receiving his greatest playing time since 2007, when he started 29 games for the Knicks. As noted, Miami will also be looking for that third PF star. Those are likely to be their only two free agency moves, however, as Jestor traditionally prefers to build through trades and the draft, rather than risk the money market.

Gasol Deal Still To Be Processed, Media Blitz Planned

The prize Miami seeks, F Shawn Marion

Although the Miami Heat are still waiting for the Pau Gasol trade to be processed so that they have the cap room, the team declared its interest in Shawn "The Matrix" Marion with the opening of free agency.

"We have two goals this free agency period. One, to re-sign Marcus Banks. Two, to sign Shawn Marion. They are our only two targets and our only two goals", said an impassioned Heat GM Jestor at a short press conference.

"As we've indicated to Shawn's agent, we are already offering him the playing time, are prepared to show him the money, and will prove to him over the coming days how he can change teams and still hold to a loyalty."

Marion projects to start at the PF spot if he signs with the Heat.

Backup Point Guard Will Reprise Role If He Returns

Conversations have already begun with PG Marcus Banks's agent

Just moments after Miami Heat GM Jestor declared that Marcus Banks and Shawn Marion were the team's only targets this free agency, he said that he's already been in contact with Banks's agent and both player and team are eager to get a contract done.

"We gave Marcus the type of playing opportunity he hasn't had since the 2007 season and he performed well", Jestor said, "He was one of our primary targets to acquire this past regular season and he's one of our two men this free agency period."

Even with lottery draftee Willie "Wonder" Warren, Banks projects as the primary backup PG while Warren adjusts to the NLL game and develops. Even when Wonder does progress, it's projected that he'll start at SG alongside Chris Paul and Banks will still remain a key reserve.

***

Context Notes
In general, I hate free agency, as I think I've said elsewhere. But every once in a while, it's fun to play in it.

That CP3 deal both teams backed off of? Amir Johnson, who at that time was a young superstar PF in the making, and our own first round pick in the next draft back. Considering we would have been in rebuild mode after that deal, it would have made sense for us.

Banks did quite well for us as a reserve after I acquired him from the Clippers the season before. And, as many know, when I get a backup who fits well in my system, particularly one who doesn't hold much value to the rest of the league, I like to keep them around a long time. Doubly so if they're UNLV alumni.

3 Year Deal Slightly Above Min-Sal For Each Season

PG Marcus Banks signing a basketball as part of a charity event at a local McDonald's

The Miami Heat have just concluded a three year, just over $4 million re-signing with reserve PG Marcus Banks, thus completing one of their two stated free agency objectives. Banks, who turns 32 next season, flourished after coming over from the Clippers, increasing his shooting percentages across the board and maintaining an excellent A/TO ratio in 25 games with 6 starts.

He projects to reprise his role as Miami's top backup floor general next season and will remain a valuable reserve and security blanket in the two years following.

"We're really thrilled to have Marcus back", Heat GM Jestor said when the team announced the agreement. "So much of basketball is about finding the right guys for your system. We felt last year Marcus would be the right guy for our system, so we got him from the Clippers, and he delivered. "

"This was the first of our primary and only free agency objectives. Now we're moving on to the other one, getting Shawn "The Matrix" Marion here in Miami. "

Organization insiders say the campaign for Marion, which has been fairly low key so far, is still waiting approval of the Pau Gasol deal before picking up steam.

Runnin' Rebels Greats Join Jestor For Miami Marion Rally

Do you remember your Runnin' Rebel Days, Shawn Marion?

The Miami Heat kicked off their Shawn Marion recruiting blitz with an unusual rally in South Beach today. Not only were thousands of Miami Heat fans in orange and black in attendance, but more than a few in Marion's scarlet and gray UNLV Runnin' Rebels jersey.

And they weren't the only ones in scarlet and gray.


Recent re-signing PG Marcus Banks repped the Rebels as well

There was also Marcus Banks, fresh off a contract re-signing, donning his collegiate uniform, leading the crowd in cheers, and former Runnin' Rebels greats Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon, and Greg Anthony from the 1989-1990 national championship team.

And then there was the ringleader of them all, Miami Heat general manager Jestor, dressed in a throwback UNLV baseball hat and jersey.


The King Rebel himself, Jestor

Jestor and the basketball Runnin' Rebels in attendance ran onto the court on a red carpet, fireworks, flames, and swirling lights firing off in perfect imitation of UNLV's home game entrances, the crowd roaring its approval and enthusiasm.

As the lights came back on and the smoke from the pyrotechnics cleared out, Jestor took hold of a waiting microphone while a larger-than-life production of the poster that leads this story unfurled behind him as the background for his address.

"Shawn "The Matrix" Marion", I've said all along that I would show you how you can still be loyal by changing teams. This is it, by joining forces with me and Marcus on the Miami Heat basketball team, bound together in Runnin' Rebel loyalty. You, Marcus, and I shall be collectively known as... THE UNLV THREE!"

The crowd again broke into pandemonium and Jestor smiled, resuming once it was quiet again.

"Some people might think the college bond means nothing, but this is America. College loyalty means a lot in this country. Others might say because you only played one year, you shouldn't be loyal because you only played one year, but that's just wrong. You were a transfer from junior college Vincennes, and in that status as a Runnin' Rebel transfer, you joined a long line of UNLV greats who played elsewhere first before finding a true home and true love with the Runnin' Rebels.

Greg Anthony here did it. Transferred from the University of Portland to UNLV.
Larry "Grandmama" Johnson here did it. Transferred from Odessa College to UNLV.
Armon "The Hammer" Gilliam did it. Transferred from Independence Junior College to UNLV.
Joel Anthony did it. Transferred from Pensacola Junior College to UNLV.
Chace Stanback did it after you. Transferred from UCLA to UNLV.

And a lot of other guys, too. The point is, these guys standing beside me, both the transfers and the career Rebels, and all the players I mentioned, all consider themselves Runnin' Rebels for life. Hell, I was a transfer of sorts myself, as I didn't go to UNLV until graduate school, but I will bleed scarlet and gray until I die.

This move we've been talking about with you and with your agent, going from Washington to Miami, that's a transfer, too. A transfer back to the UNLV love and the joy you had as a Runnin' Rebel. Back to the days of winning. Back to a home and a family.

So come to Miami, Mr. Matrix. We'll be waiting here, ready to give a Rebel Yell of welcome."

The rally closed with an en masse singing of UNLV's fight song.

Win with the Rebels a victory today!
Win with the Rebels, the Scarlet and Gray.
From mountains that surround you to far across the sea
We'll win with the Rebels of UNLV.
U! N! L! V! U-N-L-V, Go, Fight Win!
We'll win with the Rebels of UNLV.

Local Fan Declares 'Miami Heat To War!' Campaign

A prototype of the Ent costumes being constructed by T. R. Olkien

A Miami Heat fan, hearing the news of the Charlotte Bobcats moving ahead in the Shawn "Matrix" Marion race, has taken an unusual step. T. R. Olkien, 42, is building costumes of warrior trees called ents. Once he's done, he'll have the Miami Heat logo on their trunks and he and Miami Heat fans will walk down South Beach shouting, "MIAMI HEAT GO TO WAR! FOR MARION!"

Asked why he didn't use palm trees, Olkien responded, "Ents are cooler. Besides, palm trees wouldn't fit our bigger fans."

But this grassroots, or perhaps better said, grass and roots, movement wasn't the only Marion-related news out of the South Florida area. Heat GM Jestor officially responded to the Bobcats' alleged surge in front.

"We immediately contacted Shawn's agent when we heard about the news and will see what the situation is. However, I think it's worth noting that the Bobcats are wavering between Marion and Emeka Okafor. We've shown no such waffling and have remained committed all along to the Matrix. There's also the fact that Marcus Banks released a statement through his agent that he wants Shawn here as part of the UNLV Three. That's an important statement to make."

Jestor also addressed the on-court situation publicly for the first time.

"The fact of the matter is, we offer the best combination of loyalty and winning out of any of the contenders. We've had the UNLV Three rally, and we've pointed out our singleminded purpose, unlike others who are chasing after multiple big-name free agents, both of which are signs, symbols, and proofs of loyalty. That's more than what the Bobcats, Magic and many other contenders can offer.

As for the on-court product, we were a playoff team last year. We have Chris Paul and Aleks Maric as our offensive stars, a lockdown defender in Jamario Moon, and a solid all-around player in Daequan Cook. With Shawn Marion at power forward, we're again a playoff team, especially since our bench is even deeper than it was last season, when a coin flip cost us the #8 seed that should have been ours. A playoff team isn't something the Wizards can offer, as you well know, despite preseason picks year after year. We've already talked to you and your agent privately about our future plans and we believe they put us on track to contend for a title within two years' time.

We've also made a substantial formal offer and have shown willingness to show you the money. So, loyalty? Check. Playing time? Check. Winning? Check. Money? Check. Check it out. We offer all those areas here in Miami."

The general manager also mentioned plans were in the works for if and when Marion decides to make formal visits to each finalist team.

Miami Dismisses Wizards Anti-Heat Arguments

One of the most hotly contest free agents: F Shawn Marion

Miami Heat GM Jestor was said to shake his head and smile in amusement after hearing the Washington Wizards' claims that his team was a suspect destination for blue-chip veteran free agent Shawn Marion.

An hour later, Jestor was in front of the microphones to directly refute the Wizards' claims.

"So Washington is saying they only lost because of injuries to key players? Well, check it out. We lost Pau Gasol for two months to injury. We were also without Chris Paul for 8 games. Those were our two best players until we got Aleks Maric in here. I'd like to see any team miss its original top two guys and not be significantly affected.

Furthermore, fact of the matter is, we were a playoff team last year, even with those injuries. The same can't be said of Washington. Nor can that be said for much of the Wizards' history of chronic underachievement.

As for Gasol going? With that trade, we landed Jamario Moon, who is a great fit for our starting lineup and will make us a better team by deferring to Paul, Maric, and you, when you join this team. We also have a deeper bench than last year, so I fully expect us to improve on last season's record.

Can the same be said of Washington? No.

As we've said all along, a different kind of loyalty, but still loyalty, playing time, money, and winning are all here in Miami."

Asked about the rumor of the bidding for the Matrix increasing, Jestor would only say that they were re-visiting the situation.

***

Context Notes
The Banks signing was me doing what I do, and there was nobody else interested in him, so we were able to sign him to a cheap multi-year deal. The same thing has happened with "Sudden" Sam Smith in the GAH, where I use the same tactic to keep signing a reserve player who fits well in our system. And hey, Autumn, remember when he tore up your Nets in that one playoff series? :D

The Marion war, though. It was fast, furious, and an all-out war. Even more impressive - 3 Southeast teams were in on the bidding - The Miami Heat, the Washington Wizards, and the Charlotte Bobcats. But it was the Wizards and Heat who most energetically went at it. In fact, the last, short article in this update sparked a 36 reply back and forth between various GMs.

It got even better when mgtr81 changed his signature to support Marion to Miami. I don't remember if he was the first one to do it, or if someone else started a support campaign first, but soon, a ton of GMs in the league were lining up on one side or the other of the free agency period's most heated war.

Heat Hit Upon Key Issues, Discover More Similarities

Free agent Shawn Marion is a White Sox fan

Shawn Marion made his official visit to the Miami Heat today and it was one that included Heat GM Jestor's traditional love of epic spectacle, but also had its quieter moments.

It all started when Marion landed at Miami's international airport, disembarking wearing a White Sox hat. The news was an unexpected surprise to the Heat entourage waiting for him, including Jestor, because...


Two of a kind in fandom: Jestor and Marion

Jestor himself is a White Sox fan, as evidenced by this photo from his University of Wyoming days.

The two passed the time going to Marion's hotel and the Miami Heat's offices, talking about the thrill of the 2005 World Series championship, Jestor remarking that it "broke my heart when Bobby Jenks got non-tendered in the 2010 offseason and went to the Red Sox." They also discussed the team's chances for the AL Central, the pennant, and the World Series title in the upcoming season.

Then free agent and GM entered the arena, where, much to Shawn's turn to be surprised, there stood a partial replica of the Thomas and Mack Center. Although not a full-size or complete replication, certain key elements were there and it was to these that Jestor pointed during their conversation.


UNLV retired jerseys, Part 1


UNLV retired jerseys, Part 2


UNLV NCAA Final Fours


UNLV national championship banner and other noted accomplishments

"As I've said before, your coming here will result in the creation of the UNLV Three with me, you, and Marcus Banks. You see in front of you some our mutual school's greatest players and greatest teams. But although some of them, like Gilliam, Augmon, and LJ met with great individual success, the last Runnin' Rebel to win an NBA ring was Isaiah Rider, as a bench player with the Lakers in 2001.

As we've indicated to you, we plan to challenge for the title in the next 2-3 seasons and you will be a key part of this championship effort. This is not the case in Charlotte, where you will be merely one of a horde of scorers, nor is it the case in Washington, where, as you've gone through year after year, the team underachieves and fails to live up to high preseason billing.

And as I've said all long, we were a playoff team last year but for the coin flip, despite significant injuries to Chris Paul and Pau Gasol. We are a deeper team than we were last season, and with your addition, will be a playoff team in actuality, with no need for coin flippage, this upcoming season. We also have $18.4 million coming off the cap next season, which, as we've said, will give us the financial resources to land an impact free agent to become those championship contenders.

We have that ability and unlike Washington, we have a proven track record. When I came in this previous offseason, it was a 27 win team that was underachieving relative to its talent level, and had the wrong mix of players. What happened? I engineered a complete makeover and reshaped the team into a playoff squad already. In a single season. Can you say the same with the Wizards, who despite years of underachieving, stubbornly refuse to reshape the team? Hit your head against a brick wall once, and you can be forgiven for not recognizing how hard it might be. Hit your head against a brick wall five times, and you deserve the brain damage.

Regarding the trouble spots noted by your agent, we have demonstrated our loyalty to you by our promises and by the UNLV Three Connection. Furthermore, the Monty Myles situation was a mistake on our part. You are not a mistake. You are a proven star veteran who will be the missing piece in our three star criterion which is part of he Jestorball system.

As for the uncertainty of direction, when we put Pau Gasol on the very public auction block, there were two directions we had before us. Trade for youth and picks or for cap space and picks. We were hoping for the latter, so that we could keep Chris Paul and have the space to go after you. As it turns out, the Clippers provided us not only the cap and pick we were looking for, but the defensive, deferring small forward we were looking for in Jamario Moon. "

Jestor then handed Marion a lineup card

Miami Heat Projected Starting Lineup
PG Chris Paul
SG Daequan Cook
SF Jamario Moon
PF Shawn Marion
C Aleks Maric

"You have the opportunity to play with one of the single greatest players in the entire league in CP3, and the kind of mixture of youth and veterans needed for regular season and postseason success."

Next, Jestor pointed to a wall of the arena, where a sign hung that read:

ONLY IN THE MIAMI MATRIX!
THE
MARICILICIOUS
WONDERPAUL
BACKCOURT
COOKS
UP A STORM
WHILE
MOON RISES
AND ALL
MARVEL
OVER
MARION!

Next to the sign hung the following banner:



"We have won a championship for our media and are consistently in the top flight of the most media-friendly and active teams. That's the type of exposure you need for high level endorsement deals. You won't get that in Washington or Charlotte, who bounce between average and worst teams for media presence. The league *will* know and follow you as a restored star if you come to Miami."

"And last, but not least", said the GM with a smile, "We have a gift for you."



"Your very own Miami Heat jersey, with Lucky #7. We can give you any number you want, but we thought 7 was appropriate for its lucky qualities.

So come to Miami. Come for the improved offer we've given you and your agent, for the UNLV Three Connection and restoration of college loyalty, for the starting spot and a clear-cut presence as one of our star players, for the promises we've made, and for the chance to win, not only in the regular season to re-enter the playoffs, but in the postseason to finally get that ring.

Neither Charlotte nor Washington can offer that complete, total package. Nor can they offer the sweet alliteration of Marion - Magnificent and Marvelous in Miami.

We'll be eagerly awaiting your decision."

GM Staying Calm

Miami Heat GM Jestor is tranquil despite Shawn Marion's delay

News has just been released that hotly-sought after SF Shawn Marion is taking another week to decide. With the Matrix yet to make official visits to Washington and Charlotte, that gives the Wizards and Bobcats an extended opportunity to make a final pitch. Still, Miami Heat GM Jestor was keeping calm, in spite of the delay.

"We've been going after Shawn from the very beginning and have shown flexibility and willingness in the negotiations. We've also refuted some of our trouble spots, which Charlotte and Washington haven't really done. For example, that big sign and trade the Wizards had? I don't see it anywhere. That big free agent signing the Bobcats were making? Don't see that either."

Jestor also expressed doubt about Charlotte's rumored $50 mil./3 years offer.

"As far as I'm concerned, that's just Internet rumor and we're going to treat it as such for the time being."

The general manager also said a decision on Jon Brockman, who the Heat do have interest in bringing back, will wait until Marion chooses where he'll sign. Marion and Brockman may not be the only moves and intrigue left to play out in the Heat's offseason. Jestor confirmed that although the team hasn't yet spoken to any other agents, they're reviewing their roster and the available free agents to see if there's a depth player they can pick up to fill out their roster even if Marion and Brockman sign.

Free Agent's Anger Over Marion Delay Puts Team In Hurry-Up Mode

Free Agent F Jon Brockman's public frustration spurred the Heat to greater action

Jon Brockman's opening up to other teams and offers after spilling over with public frustration over the Heat's slowness to action as Miami waits to see what F Shawn Marion decides on. More to the point, the week delay and Miami's subsequent passed-on delaying has been the source of Brockman's fury and change in direction.

"It's completely and absolutely understandable", Heat GM Jestor said. "We've immediately gotten in touch with Brockman's agent to further the discussion. We thank Jon for his patience and appreciate his urging us to resume the conversation."

Jestor admitted the situation could imperil the team's relationship with Brockman and PPI's other clients.

"Any time you have a scenario like this, where you're pinning your free agency on one player, there's a very real potential for that sort of fallout. We hoped that our singleminded pursuit of Shawn, combined with our aggressive approach in finances and media, would result in a comparatively swift resolution, but it hasn't panned out that way.

It's unfortunate that Shawn chose to delay his decision, but that, too, is understandable, as this could be Marion's last major contract and chance to be the star of a ring-winning team. We'll persevere and see how it all comes out."

***

Context Notes
I'd completely forgotten about wanting to bring Jon Brockman back, but he showed me enough in the partial season we had him apparently that I was interested in keeping him.

Oh, by the way, I was right about the Bobcats' offer being a bluff. As it turned out, Charlotte wasn't even really interested in Marion. They wanted to start a bidding war to ensure that either us or the Wizards would eat up all our cap on the Matrix so the Bobcats could get other targets cheaper.

Well-played, knightdemon, well-played

Oh, and those photos from the Thomas & Mack are ones I took. This was before Japan, so it was with the Sony camera I had prior to the Canon SX40.

Washington vs. Miami (vs. latecomer Toronto?)

F Shawn Marion has a lot to think about in the race for his signature

The Charlotte Bobcats' $50 million offer was a smokescreen for PF/C Emeka Okafor, so the race appears down to the Miami Heat and the Washington Wizards, although the sudden surge of the Toronto Raptors might make this a new three team race. Jackson Ayorinde, an occasional NLL commentator, says the Raptors are far too little, too late to the party to deserve serious consideration and that it's still down to the Miami Heat and the Washington Wizards.

The two confirmed finalists have been jockeying for position and it's anybody's guess where Shawn Marion eventually signs. Ayorinde re-caps the situation:

Miami Heat
Strengths: Media relations, biggest single year improvement, large cap room next year
Weaknesses: Monty Myles situation

Washington Wizards
Strengths: Loyalty
Weaknesses: Underachieving

Both teams are said to be offering 3 year deals worth about the same amount of money and both are offering starting spots. Ayorinde points out that while loyalty, money, and PT are all grouped together in a tight cluster, with winning at 50, it's still a key component that could ultimately be the deciding factor in this race.

Miami and Washington have each made their claims as to the best situation for Marion in terms of winning, and Ayorinde decided to take a closer look at what happens if the teams didn't have Marion.

Point Guard
Chris Paul vs. Deron Williams
CP3 is a legitimate MVP candidate and finished 4th in voting last season. He's a do everything, top 5 player in the league. Williams is a double-double PG with pretty good defense in his own right, and arguably the best floor general in the league. But Top 5 player in the entire league and MVP candidate he's not.

Advantage: Miami

Shooting Guard
Daequan Cook vs. James Anderson
Cook is an extremely accurate outside shooter, the type of high intangible player who plays better than some scouts rate him. He also received a vote for Most Improved Player last year. Anderson, the rookie, projects as the starting SG, as he's impressed in Summer League and Wally World figures to decline considerably. But of course, we won't know for sure how good Anderson is until he plays. For now, call it a coin flip.

Advantage: Draw

Small Forward
Jamario Moon vs. Nick Smith
Moon is here to be the shutdown defender and past history suggests he'll do extremely well in that role. Smith finally broke out with shooting accuracy last season, but is it a sign he's turned the corner, or will he revert back to his prior struggles? In any case, in terms of pure talent, there's little question the Wizards are better here.

Advantage: Washington

Power Forward
Jon Brockman vs. Brandan Wright
Devon Hardin if the Heat don't re-sign Brockman, but despite the recent public furor over the waiting game, Brockman's one of the most loyal players in the league and all signs point to Miami bringing him back. Like Moon, he's a defensive wizard, but he's also a great rebounder and passer/handler. Wright is a very good all around power forward, not quite on the elite level the Wizards like to believe him, but still much better all-around than Brockman.

Advantage: Washington

Center
Aleks Maric vs. Steven Hunter
Maric is the #2 option right now behind CP3 and he's a high quality, young all-around center. Hunter is the Wizards' version of Moon, and just like the Moon/Smith matchup, the younger player is the far superior one.

Advantage: Miami

Bench
The Heat have a strong set of reserve guards. There's draft steal Willie "Wonder" Warren, still capable Steve "Franchise" Francis, and proven reserve floor general Marcus Banks, just to name a few. Mike Miller is a capable all-around reserve, able to fill in at SG or SF. Anthony Morrow is an instant jolt of offense. The weak spot is the frontcourt, where Devon Hardin is liked by some in the league, but rookie Michael Washington is untested, and Milovan Rakovic is merely ordinary.

Jordan Farmar is a good backup floor general, but Manu Ginobli and Wally Sczerzbiak are both in their decline phase and will drop only more so before the start of next season. The Wizards just lost Louis Williams to the Minnesota Timberwolves and have no go-to bench scorer to speak of. Rashon Felix has ability as a rebounder and defender, and shoots accurately, but Brad Miller, like Ginobli and Wally World, will only decline all the more.

[b]Advantage: Miami

Overall Synopsis
Miami's perimeter game is stronger and deeper than Washington's, and although the Wizards have the current advantage at the two forward spots, the Heat have stronger star power with CP3 and Maric than the Wizards do with Smith and Wright,and they're a much deeper overall and younger team overall than Washington, who has an aging bench and little cover in case of injuries.

Impact of Marion Signing
Miami landing Marion would be huge in that his ability to play both SF and PF allows the Heat great flexibility in lineups. They can either send out Moon and Marion at SF and PF or Marion and Brockman at SF and PF, depending on who the offensive star forward on the opposition they need to shut down is. Marion also gives the Heat that third scoring star they prefer in the Jestorball system and raises their profile in the playoff race.

If Washington retains Marion, they can move Smith, Anderson, or Wright to the bench to give them that reserve scorer they need, and, should they move Wright down, address the lack of post depth. But it's still a comparatively shallow, aging team and even with Marion on this squad, they didn't make the playoffs last year.

Looking to the Future
Miami has $18.4 million coming off the books next season when they renounce Mike Miller, Devon Hardin, and Steve Francis. That's serious money to be able to upgrade their team to the championship contender level, as the overwhelming majority of that money will be in play to sign a free agent. Willie Warren also has incredible upside to be a franchise player and no less than championship winning GM Erick Senberg of the Orlando Magic has lauded Wonder's praises.

In contrast, the Wizards are in hard cap difficulties right now. Ginobli's $10.4 million, Farmar's $4.7 million, Wally's $6.8 million, and Hunter's $7.8 million add up to just under $28 million in cap clearance next offseason, but with the Wizards already 34 million over the cap, it still limits Washington to the MLE and LLE and without the flush of riches that the Heat have to offer.

Then there's the matter of Miami still being younger and deeper, with Warren and Maric still developing their impressive potential, whereas Washington will still be searching for the pieces to replace their ancient bench.

So in terms of winning situation, the Heat have a clear advantage over the Wizards, and that's without going into an in-depth analysis of Washington's annual disappointments recordwise.

Heat GM Caught Swearing At TV

Head coach Lon Kruger leads the UNLV Runnin' Rebels against Kansas State in a summer tournament

Miami Heat GM Jestor took a break from swearing at the TV during a special summer scrimmage tournament between UNLV and Kansas State to say he endorses the Dallas Mavericks getting LeBron James.

"I hate James just like I hate K-State for making that damned buzzer beating 3 pointer against the Rebels right before halftime. But the new Pistons GM had the Timberwolves as one of the worst teams in the league with Chris Paul, and that can't be good for a King James looking to theoretically establish himself as the greatest player in the league. Dallas is an up and coming team, whereas the Pistons are no doubt facing an inevitable decline.

There's also the fact that the East is much stronger than the West and James moving out West would help restore balance to the league."

As of the article printing, UNLV had put together a run to lead Kansas State by 6 with 10:25 left in the second half, the Wildcats due to shoot two.

Oddsmakers Are Split

Sin City is uncertain where former UNLV Rebel Shawn Marion will go

It's down to the wire in the Shawn Marion sweepstakes and in his college town of Las Vegas, the bookies are just as divided in their opinion as the conflicting reports over where Marion will land.

At Mike's Book in North Las Vegas, they're considering the Wizards the favorite. According to Mike, "It doesn't look like that whole UNLV Connection, while cute, has gotten the Heat any traction at all. The money's about the same and if you want to know the truth, winning's about the same for next season. Beyond that, yeah probably the Heat, but who knows how much longer Marion's gonna play? It all comes down to loyalty and he's had the two years with the Wizards."

Over in East Las Vegas, though, a number of bookies are singing a different tune.

"It'll be Miami", says Paul of Tropicana Sports Bettors. "His closest friends are saying the Heat and I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami come in with a bigger offer at the end, just to push the scales their way, not like they weren't already leaning that way. I mean hell, come on, Marion's been drawing out this process for far too long for him to be going back to the Wizards. If he was really planning on staying in Washington, he would have re-signed with them long before this, leaving Charlotte and Miami in the dust."

There's been no further reports out of South Florida, with the Heat offices on strict gag order. Some reporters have tried to find out if there was ever any conversation between Miami and Washington about a possible sign and trade as an amicable resolution for both contenders, but even the organization insiders who take their loquacious vibe from their GM refused to comment on that angle.

In any case, a decision should come down soon.

***

Context Notes
We got in on the support train fun as you can see here. In this universe Lebron James had led the Detroit Pistons to 5 titles in 6 seasons, so he was a hot free agent.

Marion's decision obviously is going to come in the next post.

Major Moves Unlikely

Depressed Miami Heat fans while Wizards GM Matt Hill celebrates in the background

The Decision: Matrix Version came down and it resulted in the Washington Wizards retaining Shawn Marion and the Miami Heat with a gaping hole in their lineup and the clear-cut worst team in the division.

An offseason that initially looked promising with the brilliant steal of Willie "Wonder" Warren and the defensive SF the Heat needed in Jamario Moon, plus a regaining of a 2014 first and major cap space to position Miami as free agent players in the Pau Gasol trade has now turned to disaster.

Because Heat GM Jestor didn't talk to any other marquee players, but stayed faithful to his pursuit of Marion, secondary target Emeka Okfaor? Gone, and to the Charlotte Bobcats. Personal Jestor favorite Martell "Webby" Webster? Gone. Hopes of the playoffs this season? Gone.

In short, Miami has, in the course of two weeks, been passed up by Orlando and Washington and the initially narrow gap between them and Charlotte widened into a gulf. Atlanta always overperforms relative to their talent, so the Heat are now staring at the bottom of their division, without their own draft pick.

"Guess we should have taken the deal the Pistons offered with taking on Rondo and our first for two seconds", a rueful Jestor said. "We almost did it, but we thought we had a very real chance at Marion."

For those teams hoping for Chris Paul to be T-Mac'ed, forget it. "Not happening. Detroit also offered us Amir Johnson and our 2014 1st for Paul, which is the one deal we seriously considered and would seriously consider for him."

And so a serious of missteps, leading back to the Monty Myles debacle of last offseason, have put Miami in a damnable position. With very few star power forward options available, and PPI apparently on vacation, which makes Jon Brockman's status up in the air, the Heat suddenly have a giant hole in the post.

"All our scouts are on vacation, too", the GM admitted. "Frankly, I don't want to go the trade route for some short-term success this season. If nothing else, we'll roll in the space we have now to the 18.4 million we have coming next season, go in next offseason with over 30 million and really be in position to throw our weight around."

For now, it appears the Los Angeles Lakers have landed themselves a Top 10 pick. Of course, there's some protection on that pick, although whether it's Top 5 or Top 8, research could not turn up in time for this article. Although such a fall seems a bit of a stretch, anything is possible in the NLL.

Brockman Back; Kalnietas Also Captured

F Jon Brockman and his agent with PPI were all smiles at the press conference announcing his re-signing

Although the Miami Heat failed in their epic quest for F Shawn Marion, they did manage to rebound with a pair of financially sound contracts to fill out their roster. As expected, the team re-signed F Jon Brockman. Financial details were 3 years and $3.6 million, with a flat of rate of $1.2 million a year. As the roster is currently composed, Brockman figures to battle with rookie Michael Washington and Devon Hardin for the starting PF spot.

"We're thrilled to have Jon back", Heat GM Jestor said. "He was a key part of our team last year and his rebounding, ability to draw fouls, defense, and passing and handling are all excellent attributes that will make him a worthy player for the next three seasons. We've promised to continue working with him on his shooting form so he can become more accurate and more valuable."

Brockman will be 24 next NLL season, his fourth in the league. He also looks to finally have some stability in his professional life, after having played for five teams in three season (Utah, Washington, Minnesota, Charlotte, Miami).


PG Mantas Kalnietas now has the money to pay for his wedding after signing a million dollar contract with Miami

Point guard depth was a paradoxical concern for the Heat, whose Jestorball system relies on ones with passing and handling ability. Chris Paul and Marcus Banks formed a very good 1-2 bunch, but Willie "Wonder" Warren is still raw and in need of development before he can run the offense, and Steve "Franchise" Francis showed much more comfort as a SG last season. Enter Mantas Kalnietas, the former Dallas Maverick, who signed a 3 year deal for $3 million, another flat rate contract of $1 million a season.

Kalnietas, who turns 27 next season, was praised for his floor general skills and at 6'5, represents the opportunity to have a tall third-stringer point guard who can run the offense. Like Brockman, the knock against him is his shooting accuracy. He'll be the Heat's third point guard and will have the opportunity to work his way up the ranks.

"We're very, very happy to land Mantas", Jestor said. "Although we aren't the Houston Rockets, true floor generals are always a valuable commodity here in Miami. He's young enough that we see him as the possible heir apparent to Marcus Banks as our top backup point guard."

The low cost of the signings means that the Heat still have an enormous amount of cap space, and with the oft-repeated $18.4 million coming off the books next season, they can put themselves in position to land two marquee free agents next free agency period.

A full offseason review/season preview will come shortly before regular season tipoff. Although no other trades or signings appear to be in the works, one never knows what will happen with a Jestor team.

Jestor Confused For Brett Favre

A recent report accused Miami Heat GM Jestor of sexting New York Jets reporter Jenn Sterger

In the recent tumult over the NLL's labor situation and Miami Heat GM Jestor's abrupt resignation, an unnamed source alleged that the general manager's quitting was to avoid revelation of his sexting with New York Jets reporter Jenn Sterger. The source claimed Jestor engaged in salicious text messages to the sideline sexy, saying things like "I need to put my Big Heat in you and take you off like a Jet.", and sending her pictures of his bare private parts

Jestor's agent categorically denied these allegations, pointing out that the GM is a Miami Dolphins fan and has never had any interest in becoming a Jets supporter. Sterger herself refused to cooperate with NLL authorities and vehemently denied the news reports.

It later came to light that the penis perpetrator was in fact none other than Minnesota Vikings quarterback Brett Favre and Jestor was cleared of all charges.


Brett Favre, who almost got away with it

There's been no word yet on whether Jestor will return to the Miami Heat. With approximately 40 hours remaining until a league-imposed deadline for former GMs to head back to their posts, observers will be watching closely to see if the league's media maestro steps back in as the Heat's head.

Blockbuster Trade Occurs A Day After Jestor's Return

The Miami Heat are gambling that PF Carlos Boozer is still a Top 50 player in the league

Mere hours after the Miami Heat successfully convinced GM Jestor to stay, the always unpredictable general manager pulled off a shocking deal, sending PG Steve "Franchise" Francis and PF/C Devon Hardin along with Miami's 2016 2nd for ugly contract, but still talented 32 year old PF Carlos Boozer and the Suns' 2016 1st round draft pick.

Although it's anybody's guess what the Suns' first will turn out to be this far out, Boozer steps in as the immediate answer to the Heat's dilemma at the PF spot. His excellent rebounding talents, along with the ability to put up points and still play a very solid all around game, could very well make him the glue guy Miami needs to make the playoffs and legitimately play in the postseason.

The downside, of course, is the remaining three years on his deal:

Year 1: $22,589,389
Year 2: $24,848,327
Year 3: $27,333,160

It's the NLL's ugliest contract in terms of total money, but the Heat had over $14 million in cap space and still have Mike Miller's expiring contract on the roster. They still have around $4 million in cap space after this deal and only Chris Paul and Aleks Maric of the players that are likely to command big money are due for new contracts in the next three seasons. In short, the Heat should still have some money to play with next free agency to get a quality player, while being able to extend Paul and Maric without running afoul of hard cap difficulties.

Boozer averaged 14.8 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.1 steals last year with the Suns and he played a key role in Phoenix's playoff run before breaking his nose. More importantly for the ball security-obssessed Heat, he averaged just 1.6 turnovers a game last year and has long been known for his good security in the post. Let's not also forget, it wasn't that long ago Boozer was a legitimate All-Star and still holds the talent of one according to some GMs around the league.

Projected Starting Lineup
PG Chris Paul
SG Daequan Cook
SF Jamario Moon
PF Carlos Boozer
C Aleks Maric
6th Willie Warren

From the other side of things:


PG Steve Francis will point the way to scoring for the Suns

First up is 36 year old PG Steve "Franchise" Francis. Franchise experienced a brief renaissance with the Miami Heat last season after coming over in the Jon Brockman and Francis for expirings trade with the Charlotte Bobcats. After Pau Gasol went down with injury, Francis broke out with a string of 10+ scoring bursts off the bench, a critical component in the Heat's shocking 11 game win streak after the bad break, but turnovers and the arrival of Marcus Banks caused Franchise to be banished to the inactive list towards the end of the season.

Francis's $7.1 million expiring contract is obviously his biggest asset for the Suns, but he also gives Phoenix a proven veteran presence that's an upgrade over Marko Jaric as the team's backup point guard to Luke Ridnour, turnovers notwithstanding.


Opinions of C Devon Hardin vary wildly around the league

The 27 year old Devon Hardin has fans in some front offices. Others consider him JAG. He showed much improved shooting accuracy and point production despite fewer minutes after coming over from Houston in the famous Aleks Maric and Monty Myles deadline blockbuster last season and he's shown far greater ball security than scouts attribute to him in his career, he just never stood out to Heat officials as a key part of the team's future.

Hardin will definitely be in the mix in Phoenix, finding himself in a similar situation to Miami last year, where a weak post bench will see him as one of the top reserve bigs. If he can produce as well as he did for the Heat off the bench, he'll be a nice little pickup for the Suns and might possibly find a settled role there if he gets a contract extension. Note: Hardin also played for the Heat back in 2008 before joining the Denver Nuggets in free agency.

But of course, the biggest reasons the Suns made the deal was money. They instantly take a little over $10 million off their cap number with this trade, and together the two players are worth $12.3 million in expiring money. Assuming they're renounced, that's a little over $23 million right there. Add to that the recent shipping of Brandon Roy and suddenly Phoenix is looking like a free agent spender next season, even with prized C Hamed Haddadi's rookie contract ending this year.

Overall Summary
The Miami Heat go from being a probable lottery team and 4th or 5th in the powerhouse Southeast to one of the horses in the playoff race. Although the Heat won't have the resources to be free agent powerhouse players next offseason, Jestor has traditionally done poorly in free agency (see Amar'e Stoudamire/Monty Myles/Shawn Marion) and prefers the security of trades and drafting, so it's not a bad thing. They also will still have the money to go after a quality 2nd tier free agent and add a future draft pick, giving them some more trade ammunition. Neither Francis or Hardin figured to play significant roles for Miami this year, the Heat preferring to turn to Michael Washington as the top reserve big in the latter case, and flush with guards they prefer in the former case.

The Phoenix Suns essentially executed a salary dump and while the financial situation will be very pretty for them, Haddadi will eat at least half of that. Also, will the Suns be able to lure in a big name, or will they fall prey to the same futility that the Heat have? Phoenix will probably still be a low seed playoff team, but they'll doubtless miss the Beast in the postseason.

***

Context Notes
Yeah, we lost out on Marion. The PA wanted me to push the money even more to beat out the Wizards, and I just wasn't willing to do that, even for the Matrix.

Right around this time, donkey33, the commissioner, was burnt out and left. This created a crisis and the NLL, after several real-life years of existence, was on the verge of collapse.

I was getting tired of the league again (Note: this happens a *lot* with me and MP leagues. It's only the second version of GAH that's really hooked me in long-term thus far, and well, I suppose the NLL, since I'm back again, but more on that later).

Long story short, I got talked into staying, and ended up executing this trade to massively upgrade our starting lineup.

knightdemon, the Bobcats' GM, summed up the infusion of talent in our division nicely:


As a side note, I tend to be considerably less adverse to overpaid guys and contracts than most GMs. As I said before, being a player in FA usually isn't a big deal to me, so bring on the big dough (as long as the player is sufficiently talented, or as long as I'm being compensated for taking on that fat money - I'm not stupid. :D)

Eventually, though, a consortium of individuals stepped up to share the administrative duties, giving the donkey some rest.

Davis Emblematic of Rockets' Struggles To Roster Makeover

PG Baron Davis's 'It stinks like ass in Houston' look

Once upon a time, there was a GM named Gary Chan. Gary liked being a general manager, and his team was the Houston Rockets. He liked the Rockets because they were a symbol of what he liked to do best - blasting off players to other teams. Every year, Gary would swap players with his buddies and clap his hands in joy as he made the playoffs season after season.

But one day, Gary didn't have anybody left that his friends wanted. Sure, there was Aleks Maric, who Jestor got for Monty Myles and a pick, and a lot of people liked Jeff Green, who somebody, your poor storyteller forgets who, got. But for the most part, Gary couldn't make a new team and this made him a very sad boy.

What made him most sad was that nobody wanted Baron Davis. Baron was a great player, and even though he was a very old man, he was named an All-Star by the Draft Day Sports Board, meaning he was a very, very good player, one of the best in his conference. But nobody wanted Baron, even though he just had one year left on his contract and it was worth a very big $13 million.

Baron averaged 18.1 points, 8 assists and 1.9 steals a game last year, making 47.8% of his shots. But he also had 3.4 turnovers a game, which made Jestor scream like a teenage girl at a Justin Bieber concert, even though Justin was really Taber with a different haircut.

So, dear reader, who among Gary's friends would be a better team with Baron?

Boston Dave could. The Celtics have no real good point guards and they have lots of old people that Baron could be buddies with and trade jokes about Metamucil and nasty, sagging things called manboobs.

Denver Coops could. Coops did a very bad thing and sniffed glue, which made him trade for Jrue Holiday, thinking he's a real live point guard, but Jrue isn't one. The Nuggets also need a perimeter scorer.

Utah Gs could. Gordon and Greene and Davis, oh my! That'd be a Baron's bounty of perimeter scoring! And the Jazz would have lots more money in the next offseason, which the Jazz, who are not Jeff because they do not have a Fresh Prince, but could use an Old Baron, need.

And, well, that's pretty much it. Everyone else already has the point guard they want and who knows if anybody would want to try Baron at shooting guard.

So there you have it. Boston. Denver. Utah. All three places fit for a Baron. Maybe he can go to one of those places and make Gary, Baron, and his new general manager very, very happy.

Some Encouraging Signs Despite 1-2 Preseason Start

Last lottery pick SG Willie Warren impressed in Miami's first three exhibition games

A lot of uncertainty surrounded this Miami Heat team heading into the preseason. Key changes in the frontcourt starting lineup and the jockeying of players and teams around the league in the offseason, particularly in the Southeast, had everyone wondering if this Heat team was a legitimate playoff contender after the addition of Carlos Boozer just before tipoff.

Thus far the answer seems to be that they'll be in the mix, despite going 1-2 in the first three games.

Game 1
@ New Jersey - L 93-100
The Heat shot just 40.7% from the floor, but made up for it by shooting 40.7% from long range (11/27). Aleks Maric played very uneven, 3/7 for just 7 points, but did have 9 rebounds and 4 blocks. Chris Paul hit 10/17 shots for 25 points before fouling out, but the best game came from Willie "Wonder" Warren, as the rookie hit 9 of 19, 4 of 7 from long-range for 22 points. The rest of the tam was by and large ugly, Jamario Moon and Carlos Boozer particular embarassments at a combined 3 for 22.

Game 2
vs Cleveland - W 93-83
Miami was the only team to beat the Cavs in Cleveland's first set and the Heat id it by playing stifling defense, holding the Cavs to 37.8% shooting. Balance was the watchword on offense, with Aleks Maric redeeming himself with a 16 point, 13 rebound double-double. Chris Paul, however, had an alarming 5 turnovers, the most he's ever had in South Beach.

Game 3
@ Washington - L 92-96
39.3% shooting translates into a 4 point road loss. Aleks Maric did his best to keep the Heat in the game, posting 21 points, 11 rebounds and 5 blocks and Willie Warren came through with 14 points in 19 minutes on 6 of 10 shooting, but the rest of the bench was a combined 3 of 18, which inevitably sunk Miami.

The Good
Willie Warren - 15 points in 18 minutes, 52.9% from the floor, 8/14 (57.1%) from 3 point range.
Aleks Maric - 14.7 points, 11 rebounds, 3.7 blocks, 3.0 A/TO ratio


The Bad
Chris Paul - A mortal 1.9 A/TO ratio
Jon Brockman - 30.8% shooting
Team shooting - 42.1% (22nd in the league)

The Ugly
Mike Miller - 26.3% shooting on 5 of 19. His hideous shooting probably singlehandedly cost Miami the two road losses as he went 2 for 7 in each.
Rebounds Allowed - 48.7 (29th in the league, ahead of only the Bucks)

Warren's stellar play earns him the right to get a crack at the starting lineup, thus unofficially beginning the Wonderpaul era. The battle for the starting SG spot between Warren and Daequan Cook will be one of the most closely watched of the preseason, as every other position in the Heat's lineup appears to be set.

And Mike Miller has played his way into Eric Musselman's doghouse. Look for him to sit in street clothes for the next series of games while Miami takes a look at late second round pick Tasmin Mitchell.

Head Coach Unconcerned About Poor Preseason Beginning

Heat head coach Eric Musselman also has international experience, having coached the Dominican Republic's national team

There's some anxiety in South Beach as the Miami Heat have gone 2-4 in the preseason despite fielding what many feel will be their regular season lineup. Another relatively close loss at home to the Washington Wizards, followed by blowout win and loss against Dallas and San Antonio respectively seem to suggest troubling signs ahead for a franchise that many pundits have already tabbed to finish 4th or 5th in the Southeast, even with the Carlos Boozer acquisition.

Miami Heat coach Eric Musselman was unflappable in his most recent press conference, however.

"Look, Chris Paul and Daequan Cook, two of the team's most traditionally accurate shooters, are both shooting 39.5% so far. That's what we call a slow start and an anomaly. They'll both get it turned around in the regular season."

But Paul and Cook aren't the only ones experiencing cold streaks relative to their career averages. C Aleks Maric is at 47.2% and SF Jamario Moon is also hitting a career-worst 32.7%. In fact, the only three players shooting 50% or better from the floor are reserve guards Marcus Banks (71.4%), Anthony Morrow (66.7%) and Mantas Kalnietas (50%). Still, Musselman shrugs off the shooting worries, arguing that it's only preseason and there's too many variables in play to draw any hasty conclusions.

Other interesting developments in the early preseason include Jon Brockman, Morrow, and Mantas Kalnietas leading the team in +/- at 7.5, 7.3, and 4.8 respectively, with Morrow averaging a team low 0.4 points/shots faced. Although the sample size is small, it points to the possibility of his getting a consistent set of minutes, unlike last year when he appeared in 71 of the team's 82 games.

Despite Moon's shooting difficulties, he's been as good as advertised on the defensive end, with 1.000% stop rate and allowing 0.9 points per shots faced at 6.2 shots a game.

Daequan Cook and Willie Warren continue to fight it out for the starting SG spot, with Cook stopping 92.4% of drives and allowing 0.7 points/shots faced despite a team high 11.8 shots faced per game. Warren, on the other hand, is at 81% drives stopped and has faced 8 shots a game, giving a point per shot faced. Warren played very even as a starter, hitting 7 of 14 against the Wizards, but was just 5 of 17 in his most recent games. He was 4 of 12 (33.3%) from the 3 point range, all 3 games combined.

Carlos Boozer has been a mixed bag so far. His counting stats have looked decent at 12 points and 7.3 rebounds a game on 46.8% shooting, but he's a team worst -6.8 +/- and has a 16.7% drive stop rate. He's also, in counterpoint, allowed just .029 turnovers/touch, better than any starter save Chris Paul and his .02 turnovers/touch.

There's also the battle of the backup PGs, with the following stat lines:

Marcus Banks - 4.3 PPG 2.2 APG 71.4% shooting, 100% 3 point range, 80% FT, -5.2, 62.5% drives stopped, 1.2 A/TO ratio, 11.5 MPG
Mantas Kalnietas - 3.5 PPG 1.5 APG 50% shooting, 100% 3 point range, 100% FT, +4.8, 67.7% drives stopped, 3.0 A/TO ratio, 7.8 MPG

Musselman remarked that he hadn't yet decided who Chris Paul's main backup would be. He also admitted his starting swingmen were perhaps in flux.

"They're both quality reserves to have on this team and we'll watch and see which one we think should be running the offense most when CP3 isn't on the floor. As for the 2 and 3 spots, my staff and I have been discussing different scenarios, which, I'm sure you can understand, I'm not going to go into.

That said, we've noticed some things in these early games, such as quite a few players getting into foul trouble, and of course, we're monitoring the shooting situation. We'll try some new things tactically for the rest of the preseason and see how they work out. We'll also be experimenting with different lineups."

One possibility floating around the Internet fanbase is a line of Paul/Warren/Moon/Boozer/Maric, with Kalnietas/Morrow/Cook/Brockman/Washington as the second string and some combination of Banks, Mike Miller, and Tasmin Mitchell for the remaining two spots. Milovan Rakovic is a lock for the inactive list, despite the Heat's need for another reserve center.

Rookie Watch For Players Not Named Warren

Michael Washington - 3.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 35% shooting, 62.5% FT, +1.2, 0.6 PA/SF, 1.8 A/TO, 14 MPG
Tasmin Mitchell - 1.7 PPG, 2 RPG, 28.6% shooting, 100% 3 point, -0.3, 1.000 drive stop %, 0.6 PA/SF, 5.0 A/TO (Team high), 16.3 MPG (3 games)

Washington's shooting has been horrendous, but he's been a valuable rebounder and shotblocker off the bench, with better ball security than expected. If he can improve his shooting, he could become a legitimately worthy high-end reserve.

Mitchell got a tryout these last 3 games and the results were mixed. The Heat's front office doesn't like Mike Miller, but thus far Mitchell hasn't been able to show that he's able to replace the veteran in the rotation.

Musselman also said that the Heat would be sitting Chris Paul while Miami's franchise face rests from soreness in his arm.

"It's the preseason. We're not going to risk a long-term injury to Chris when the standings don't matter a damn. This'll give us a good chance to try different apocalyptic scenarios and see what comes out of them."

***

Context Notes
The story behind the Baron Davis article was that the Houston Rockets GM, Iceman, kept spamming everyone's trade block with him for like umpteen seasons in a row, so I thought it'd be fun to do a writeup on him.

Yeah, preseason was looking ugly.

Flying Dutchman Looks A Tonic For Post Bench Woes

iBasketball Magazine is already calling Henk Norel to the Miami Heat

The Miami Heat's preseason shooting difficulties and their porous post bench situation appear to have some remedy in GM Jestor's latest free agent target: Dutchman Henk Norel, who averaged 12.1 points, 9.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks while shooting 57.2% in 50 games and 41 starts last year for the Washington Wizards.

Initially a 2nd round pick, #42 overall, in last year's draft, Norel isn't without his detractors among scouts, who question his passing and ballhandling talents, which seems an odd fit for the Heat's security first Jestorball system. On the other hand, he averaged 1.7 assists to 1.8 turnovers as a starter, a ratio that should figure to improve under head coach Eric Musselman's tutelage. He also has high upside as a scorer and defensive rebounder and respectable upside in terms of his basketball intelligence.

Although many scouts consider him extremely inconsistent, Norel's shooting accuracy alone makes him a worthy challenger to Michael Washington and Jon Brockman in Miami's bench setup, as Washington is shooting 32% this preseason, Brockman 40%. Most importantly, he would give the Heat desperately needed height in the post, where they're currently fielding 6'9 Carlos Boozer and 6'11 Aleks Maric as the starters, and 6'7 Brockman and 6'11 Washington as the reserves.

As the basketball saying goes, you can't teach 7 feet.

Now it remains to be seen if Miami can win out in its aggressive bid for Netherlands native Norel.

Hideous Shooting, Scoring Makes For Painful Viewing

The only player on the entire court to shoot 50% or better: C Aleks Maric

We've seen some ugly basketball this preseason, but none was uglier than the Miami Heat's 69-55 win over the Portland Trailblazers. How bad was it? Only Aleks Maric shot 50% or better, hitting 7 of 10 shots for 19 points, 14 rebounds, and 2 blocks as the game MVP.

As for the rest of it, let's just say you may want to turn your kids' eyes away from the screen so they aren't scarred by these numbers.

Portland
27.4% team shooting
C Pavel Podkolzin - 5/14
F Joakim Noah - 6/13
F Carmelo Ahtony - 5/23
G Danny Green - 2/13
G Mike Bibby - 4/13

Miami
29.3% team shooting
C Aleks Maric - 7/10
F Carlos Boozer - 3/8
F Jamario Moon - 1/5
G Willie Warren - 5/15
G Chris Paul - 4/16

Although the Miami Heat went 4-2 in the final set of preseason games, there were some dark signs, such as Chris Paul continuing to struggle with his shot and his turnovers, although he did raise his A/TO ratio considerably. The team also stayed putrid on the road, losing both away games. One was a blowout loss to the reserves of the Atlanta Hawks, the other a semi-close game to a Pistons team sitting Greg Oden, LeBron James and Andrei Kirilenko. Daequan Cook and Willie Warren also continued their inconsistent performances, but Warren played better overall and the general consensus in South Beach is that the Wonderpaul backcourt will make its official debut in the regular season and be the starting set for the year, especially given Wonder Warren's upside.

There were still far too many games with too many turnovers for the Jestorball offense's liking, and it's a situation that will need to be remedied if the Heat wants to lead the league in fewest turnovers surrendered again.

On the positive side of things, the switch to a halfcourt defense led Miami to limit opponents to under 80 points in all four home wins. Although the Heat's front office prefers a glitzy scoring offense and a high-tempo defense, the halfcourt may be the best route to take heading into the regular season. The team also saw its shooting percentage as a squad increase remarkably with the switch, including 50% in the loss to the Pistons.

Carlos Boozer also came very close to a triple-double, with 16 points, 18 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 blocks in an 88-70 win over the Philadelphia 76ers.

"These weren't Chicago Bulls or Charlotte Bobcats style games by any means", head coach Eric Musselman admitted, "But maybe with our current roster, playing the grinding, ugly style is going to be the way for us to win games this season."

10 Finalists Out Of 30 GMs Chosen; Field Of Five To Be Decided

The 10 finalists in the NLL GM Lottery each receive this trophy. Maybe it can go in their sigs or something

The results of the first round of the NLL GM Lottery have been announced. Teams were asked in two heats to vote for the top five general managers they would select to lead their franchise if the NLL's GMs were released to a dispersal draft and the voting teams had a Top 5 pick to draft a GM.

The five top vote-getters in each heat have advanced to the final round, where teams will again be asked to vote for the five GMs they would want if they had a Top 5 pick in a hypothetical NLL GM dispersal draft, this time from the ten finalists, as opposed to a pool of 15 in the first round of voting.

Our ten finalists, in alphabetical order:

anywayz
The Portland Trailblazers front office head is one of the longest running executives with a single team. Voters cited his ability to have built two championship contenders in two different eras with the Blazers. Portland's known for its demonic defensive play, some would say to the point of detriment, arguing the Kevin Love for Joakim Noah trade as the prime example of this overcommitment. The Blazers had a very understated, but widely lauded offseason and Portland again figures to be among the top teams in the West.

Billy Bucket
Transformed the Mavericks overnight from one of the West's best teams into a fast track rebuild thanks to shrewd trades and exemplary drafting. Also hailed as one of the friendliest GMs in the league and stepped up in a league administrative role just when the NLL looked to be in danger of floundering, possibly closing up shop for good. Dallas is one of the young, soon to rise powers because of him.

Erick
Won a title with the Chicago Bulls and the only one to stop the Pistons from an unbroken string of rings. The NLL's most brilliant tactician and one of the GMs opponents are most wary of trading with. Took over a horrible situation in Orlando and in the space of a few seasons has them as one of the up and coming juggernauts in a loaded East conference and Southeast division. His blunt, abrasive style doesn't win him popularity contests, either with other front offices or with agents, but he exemplifies Machivaelli's axiom that it is better to be feared than loved.

Jestor
The undisputed NLL media king. How far does his Miami Heat's exposure reach? So far, we've seen mountain hermits sporting Heat caps and jerseys. His record as a day-to-day GM has been less sterling, although his capture of Chris Paul and Daequan Cook from the Timberwolves has been a masterstroke and he took Miami from a 27 win team to a belatedly DDS Records Book-accredited playoff berth. Also stole Willie Warren in the draft, but the knock on him is that for every brilliant move he makes, there's an equally bad one (see Monty Myles, trading Pau Gasol and missing out on Shawn Marion.) On the other hand, he finds a way to rebound from his errors, such as Aleks Maric and Carlos Boozer.

knightdemon
His trading work in the last season has been nothing short of magnificent. Kevin Love, B.J. Mullens, Tadija "Dragon" Dragecivic. He also snapped up Emeka Okafor in free agency and played a major role in raising Marion's free agency price. In short, he's taken the Bobcats from a mid-tier East team to one of the preseason favorites for the Southeast division title, with the offensive tour de force necessary to make waves in the postseason. There might be no other candidate with so strong a single season GM'ing peak.

Luka
One of two GMs left in the league to have won a championship. His Clippers have been about the same from season to season - good in the West, but not on that elite level, leading some to wonder if perhaps he wasn't living on the laurels of his prior ring. Then the offseason hit, and he snared Pau Gasol from the Miami Heat and added Ron Artest in free agency. Overnight, the old Luka was back and the Clippers were all of a sudden favorites in the West in some circles. He's also been frequently cited as one of the easiest GMs to work with in trade negotiations.

mgtr81
The single best GM in the league with regards to his understanding of the game. If there's something the Chicago Bulls head doesn't know about basketball, it isn't worth knowing. He also singlehandedly swung league obsession with defense over to a much more balanced approach, thanks to his electrifying, winning Bulls offense. A number of teams have adopted the offensive approach thanks to his success and influence, but the one strike against him, of course, is that for all his knowledge, Chicago still has yet to make it to even the East conference finals. But with the Bulls as young as they are, it might only be a matter of time before championships are again raining down in Chitown. Unanimously considered the greatest director of scouting and the draft the NLL's ever had.

Najira
Built the Spurs into a West power, then took a hiatus and had a ruin to rebuild upon his return. Turned San Antonio into a playoff team last year, then continued his construction work by dealing Ricky Rubio, his lone high value tradeable asset, for Thaddeus Young and Rodney Stuckey. Time will tell how that move works out, but from a sheer number of trading pieces standpoint, it was the right decision. One of the most widely respected GMs in the league, praised for his work in NLL administration in addition to his Spurs body of work. The one knock on him is that some feel he gives away elite players for considerably less than their full value. Rubio, Pau Gasol, and Greg Oden are just a few of the former Spurs in the league.

Taber
Wrote the book on rebuilding and provided the model for others, such as Billy Bucket, to follow. Like Erick, he's noted for his ability to make winning trades that turn out splendidly for his Cavaliers (see Richard Jefferson for Omer Asik deal). Not only rebuilt the Cavaliers, but turned them into one of the youngest, deepest teams in the entire NLL. Some say Cleveland didn't do much during the offseason, but Wesley Johnson begs to differ. Tabbed as championship favorites in many corners and that kind of fast rebuild from middling East team to championship favorites in a few season is the sort of stuff legends are made of.

tokyojordan
His podcasts and statistics charts have done much to enhance the league experience, both in the past and the present, but he also made the Knicks into one of the East's best teams for a good number of seasons and is picking the right time to go into rebuilding mode. Another universally respected veteran, his only drawback is that some feel he gave away his aging stars too quickly and too cheaply. Given his track record, however, it likely won't be all that long before New York's competitive again.

Conference Breakdown
East: 6 (7 if you include ranger, the Bucks GM who missed the final spot by a single vote)
West: 4

Division Breakdown
Atlantic: 1
Central: 2 (3 if ranger's included)
Southeast: 3

Southwest: 2
Northwest: 1
Pacific: 1

It's no surprise that the East is the strongest conference, as it has the greatest number of finalists. Let's not forget that the Pistons are still in their first year of the post-Donkey era, who would have been a lock to appear here and who would have tipped the scales even further.

Nor is it any surprise by these numbers that the Central and Southeast are the strongest and deepest divisions in the league. One thing to note, though: With the Mavericks and Spurs two rising teams led by GM finalists, it won't be long before the West regains some of its credibility and respectability back.

The polls will be open for voting later today.

***

Context Notes
So yeah. I kinda screwed up. Henk Norel put those numbers up for the Dakota Wizards, not Washington. I got teased quite a bit for that one.

I completely forgot I did the GM Lottery until now. 3 GMs were in the Southeast (me, bitter archrival Erick, and knightdemon). And yet, it was the Central that was the most difficult division.

Oh and if donkey33 hadn't left, he probably would have won this thing going away, thanks to the Detroit dynasty he built.

No Surprises In Top 3

Fans watch the GM Lottery vote results board in Santiago de Compostela

The oddsmakers in Las Vegas had Chicago Bulls head Manu, Orlando Magic GM Erick, and Cleveland Cavaliers front office exec Taber as the odds-on favorites in The Top 5 NLL GM Lottery and those were the top three vote-getters in the final round. All three GMs have been cited for their ability to build teams and their knowledge about the game of basketball. Erick has a ring, ironically with the Bulls, while the Cavaliers and Bulls are both trendy picks to be dominant teams for a long, long time to come.

Placing fourth and fifth to make up the Top 5 were Knicks boss tokyojordan and San Antonio Spurs chief Najira, both longtime veterans who have also held considerable influence in the NLL's headquarters.

Rounding out the field were Mavericks GM Billy Bucket, Clippers GM Luka, Bobcats GM knightdemon, Trailblazers GM anywayz, and last and least, Heat GM Jestor.

The final results led many voters to question Jestor's entry into the final round, with one elector sneering, "The guy's an overblown windbag. Everyone's damn sick and tired of hearing about a team led by somebody who's never even made the playoffs and doesn't know his arse from his elbow. Now the rest of the candidates, they've actually done something worth talking about."

An awards ceremony will be held in New York City shortly before the regular season tips off, with all the finalists receiving small trophies, the 4th and 5th place finishers medals, and the top three GMs large trophies signifying their victory in the GM Lottery.

Heat A Wild Card In The Playoff Race

The pressure will be on PF Carlos Boozer to prove he was worth Miami's commitment to trading for him

Last year, the Miami Heat featured virtually an entirely new lineup after Jestor came in during the offseason and completely revamped the roster. The end result was a move from 27 wins to 44 and a credited playoff berth, even if the team didn't appear in the postseason due to an unlucky coin flip. This year, preseason predictions are mixed. Some are calling Miami for a dead-last finish in the obscenely deep Southeast, while Chicago Bulls GM Manu considers the Heat a division contender, but most are predicting the Heat will be a borderline team, one of a host of a squads fighting for a playoff spot in the forever ridiculous East.

We already know the projected starting lineup:

PG Chris Paul
SG Willie "Wonder" Warren (R)
SF Jamario Moon
PF Carlos Boozer
C Aleks Maric

Lurking in the wings and ready to take over if Warren falters is 6th man Daequan Cook. Marcus Banks did just enough to fend off Mantas Kalnietas for the backup point guard spot in the preseason, although Kalnietas might surpass Banks by season's end. In other guard news, Anthony Morrow figures to start off the year as the backup two guard, as word has it the coaching staff doesn't have faith in Mike Miller or second round rookie Tasmin Mitchell just yet.

The big man bench situation is equally as open to change as the guard spots. Jon Brockman seems safe at the PF spot for now, as the coaches love his rebounding, passing, handling, defense, and ability to draw fouls, but will Henk Norel, who didn't get a chance to show his game during exhibition play, push rookie Michael Washington out as Maric's top backup? We're hearing that for now, Washington's got the edge, but Norel will get a few minutes per game to show if he has any potential.

Miami will also be featuring a switch to a half-court defensive style this year, after having gone full court last season. Head coach Eric Musselman said that he believes the 40 minutes of hell defense the team ran last season contributed significantly to Chris Paul's recurring injury problems, and a more contained approach on D will help ensure the MVP candidate stays healthy.

Paul will need to shake off an uncharacteristically poor preseason if the Heat hope to go playoff hunting, much less challenge for the title. While Maric looked like a double-double guarantee, he and Boozer will probably not be enough to carry the team in Paul's absence, and Warren needs time to develop into what some are calling All-Star potential.

Our prediction? Assuming no health issues, Miami battles it out with chronic underachieving Washington for the #3 spot in the Southeast and likely the #8 seed in the playoffs. The Heat don't have their own pick this year, so making the postseason is the primary goal.

Heat Nation Turns Lonely Eyes To Yesteryear After Season-Opening Loss

PG Chris Paul's preseason shooting woes have carried over to the regular season

The Miami Heat dared the New Jersey Nets to beat the zone. Luol Deng got into one and that was all she wrote.

Deng, widely criticized for his poor shot selection, particularly by Heat GM Jestor, played zonebuster, hitting 12/28 shots and finishing with a game high 29 points in the Nets' 101-84 home win over Miami.

And then on the other end was Chris Paul. Traditionally an accurate shooter, Paul's 23 points, 7 assists and one turnover look good - until you consider that he was just 9 of 29 (31%) from the floor, a ghastly 4 of 16 (25%) from 3 point range. Paul, who also struggled in the preseason, declined to speak to reporters after the game. There's growing speculation in Florida that CP3's confidence is slipping, and indeed, much of the Nets' margin of victory came in a 32-20 fourth quarter advantage, Paul wildly taking shots to try and get the Heat back in the game.

Overall, the Heat shot just 38.6% as a team, 28.1% from behind the arc. Although they only allowed 8 turnovers, Miami head coach Eric Musselman was displeased with the results.

"No two ways about it. They kicked our butts up and down the court all night long and outplayed us in every facet of the game. We didn't hit the boards, we didn't play defense, and we weren't smart about our shot choices. In fact, this is one of the worst games we've ever played in my time here. The good news is, it's only the first game of the season, and there's still plenty of time to fix things."

Musselman refused to talk about changes the team plans to make in advance of tonight's home opener against the preseason title favorite Cleveland Cavaliers, but said they would be forthcoming.

Besides Paul's numbers, Carlos Boozer played reasonably well with 10 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists and a block in his official Miami debut. He shot 4 for 9 and although he had 3 turnovers and was outdueled by rookie PF Greg Monroe, he appears to be on his way to a solid season for the Heat.

4 Point Loss To Washington On Road Might Lead To First Win Vs Wizards In Miami

SF Shawn Marion was dazed after the game against Miami

The Miami Heat have gotten off to a rough 0-3 start, but two of the games have been on the road and one was against powerhouse Cleveland. In the last loss, a 91-87 defeat to the Washington Wizards in DC, there were signs things were starting to turn around.

Like Chris Paul going 11/20 for 28 points and Willie Warren with 6 points in 10 minutes, as the rookie staked a claim to get his starting spot back. In fact, with the Wonderpaul backcourt in place, or Aleks Maric having better than 1 of 5 night or the Miami Heat doing better than 7 of 12 of their free throw attempts, the away team wins this game.

"We're still having trouble establishing our rhythm", head coach Eric Musselman said afterwards, "but we're getting there. I expect a breakthrough very soon, and remember, the team had a bit of a rough start last year too, under the previous coach."

The most telling stat of the game: Shawn Marion going 0 for 13 for 0 points. Sure, The Matrix grabbed 11 rebounds, but he was completely and totally shut down by Jamario Moon, who had 10 points and 9 blocks.

"That's why we traded for him. He just completely took Matrix out", Musselman said.

***

Context Notes

I'm not going to lie - I was a little irritated at being #10 in the final GM Lottery poll.

Then again, we were starting off 0-3 and things looked just wretched for us, although I did love Moon's 10 point, 9 rejection game against Marion. Sweet revenge.

0-4 Start Brings Usual Rumblings Of Movement

How the Miami Heat are wishing Carlos Boozer's free agency was true

These are dismal times in Miami. The Heat are 0-4 and they're struggling. Struggling bad and just one of two 0-4 teams in the league (Toronto and Memphis the other). Other winless teams? 0-3 Boston and 0-2 Milwaukee. It's a nightmare that's just never ending.

At the crux of the problem is Miami's lack of offense. The Heat are 28th in the league at 88.3 points a game, ahead of only the Bucks (88 points) and the Raptors (a horrifying 82.3) points a game. Miami's also next to last in team 3 point shooting at 27.9%, ahead of only the Houston Rockets, who cheerfully don't mind their 25% rate, given they're a shocking 3-1.

Where does it begin? How about Chris Paul, off to his worst start in years. 20 points, , 6.3 assists and a steal at career-low 42.9%, 32.3% from 3 point range. Admitttedly, much of that is from a disastrous opening night of 9 of 29, 4 of 16 from 3 point range, but it's still a sobering set of statistics.

Then there's the starting SG spot:
Willie Warren - 11/27, 3/10 from 3 point, 15 points, 3 rebounds per game as a starter
Daequan Cook - 10/22, 6/15, 2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 3 turnovers, 14 points a game as a starter

Neither Wonder Warren nor Cook have shown the ability to grasp the starting job as their own, although the rookie's 0 turnovers in 4 games will keep him there, as we all know how Jestorball values security.

Then there's Jamario Moon, the highest on-court +/- with 4.5, but shooting 29% to go with his 6.8 rebounds, 3.3 blocks and 1.5 steals, the bulk of it with 9 rejections in Washington the other night. His 2 turnovers a game are acceptable and his defense has been splendid, but is he really the right for this team?

The biggest scapegoat of all is Carlos Boozer. 8.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and a steal sound nice, but he's shooting a career low 40% and is -11 on the court, with a 10% drive stop rate and a point allowed per shot faced. He's also surrendering a team high 3.3 turnovers per game and has a 0.7 A/TO ratio, the worst among the starters.

Aleks Maric is the only player doing fine, but even his 16.5 points, 7 rebounds and 1.8 blocks on 66.7% shooting are below what the Heat were hoping for in his third season, even if he has a career high in scoring.

Miami's also bitterly regretting the Michael Washington selection, with his horrific 0.3 A/TO ratio and his 1.8 turnovers in just 14.3 minutes, negating his 4.3 rebounds and block per game. Henk Norel has posted comparable stats without the turnover headaches and he might well completely supplant Washington as the Heat's go to bench big.

Backup point guard? Marcus Banks has lost his ability to turn in a great A/TO ratio, but is the team really ready to risk Mantas Kalnietas's awful shooting when their offense is already sputtering?

Even Jon Brockman, who is off to a flier offensively, averaging 7 points on 52.2% shooting, has countenanced that by playing shockigly awful matador defense, allowing a team high 1.6 PA/SF, a key contributor to his team worst -12 net. Brockman, who is supposed to be known for his D, has been a bizarre inverse of himself early in the season.

Or maybe it's the coaching staff that simply doesn't know what it's doing. After all, Monty Myles is averaging 12.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.8 steals, shooting 49.1%, 40% from 3 point range in Houston. Not quite the All-Star potential GM Jestor claimed an offseason ago, but far better than his Miami trainwreck days.

In short, little, if anything, is going right with this South Beach outfit. The worst of it is, their pick resides with the Lakers, who are thrilled with the Heat's ineptitude. And with the latest Chris Paul rumors saying he'll head to the Knicks when he hits free agency, well, it appears Miami has indeed been struck with the Curse of Monty Myles.

Heat Win Second Straight; Trade Rumors Swirling

C Aleks Maric has been high-stepping it for the Heat this season

Miami Heat head coach Eric Musselman called last night's road game against the preseason Southwest favorite San Antonio Spurs the most critical test thus far in the early season. If the results are any indication, the Heat may finally have turned the corner after an 0-4 start, winning their second straight by a comfortable 15 point margin, winning all four quarters of play.

In fact, it was arguably Miami's best game of the year, as they shot a blistering 59.7% while holding the Spurs to 41.6%. The return to Jestorball fundamentals yielded just 10 turnovers and some great performances carried the team.

First and foremost was Aleks Maric going 12/15 for 25 points, 9 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 blocks. It was Maric's third 20+ point game of the season and thus far he's shooting 68.3% from the floor. Fellow frontcourt man Carlos Boozer hit 8 of 14 for 18 points and, most importantly, didn't give up a turnover. Then there was Chris Paul, who might have had a triple-double if he hadn't been limited to 24 minutes and fouled out. As it was, CP3 connected on 6 of 8 shots for 16 points, 10 assists, 7 rebounds, and just one turnover.

As one East scout attending the game said, "The Heat are starting to look a little scary. They've won the last two games with Paul playing 25 and 24 minutes, and they haven't needed him to be the #1 option. If he takes command in the scoring department, this Miami team might scare some people. As it is, they're going 11 deep and keeping their guys fresh. That's not something you saw from last year's team and it's shocking considering most people thought they were starter five heavy, 8 deep at best."

That depth showed itself as Jon Brockman continued his startling good shooting form, going 4 of 8 for 10 points and 6 rebounds in 18 minutes, keeping his season percentage at a surprising 50%. Also, Marcus Banks showed why Heat GM Jestor trusts him as CP3's backup, generating 5 assists and a steal with no turnovers in 16 minutes.

The game was not without its casualty, however. Rookie Willie Warren went down with a concussion and he's questionable for the next game against the Milwaukee Bucks, who are, along with the Heat, one of the teams who figures to fight for a playoff spot in the stacked East. If he doesn't play, Daequan Cook is expected to start.

A West scout attending the game also chimed in on the Heat.

"It's still early yet, but it's important to note that after this game, Miami's in the top 10 in most defensive categories. Not something you'd necessarily expect from this squad, but getting Jamario Moon really changed the Heat's complexion, and for the better. He has a +17.5 net, +8.8 when he's on the court.. His defensive playmaking in particular is breathtaking to watch and who cares if he's shooting a career worst 33.3%? So far, the coaching staff has found ways to limit the shots he takes. He's pretty much Miami's answer to Andrei Kirilenko. And to think people laughed when they traded Pau Gasol for him and a late first."

Musselman was much more cautious after the post-game wave of praise.

"We're 2-4. That's not even .500. Come talk to me when we have a winning record. Until then, we have a long way to go."

Trade Whispers
It wouldn't be the Miami Heat if there weren't rumors going around about possible deals. The latest gossip links the Heat to interest in Hamed Haddadi, Kevin Love, Joakim Noah, and in what might seem unusual, Vince Carter. Jackson Ayorinde provided analysis on each situation.

Hamed Haddadi
It's no secret the Heat love Haddadi. In fact, Jestor was hoping the Iranian would fall to him in his first draft with the Orlando Magic. Haddadi's recent decision to go to free agency might bring the asking price within the Heat's range, who have picks to offer, like the 2016 Suns 1st they got in the Boozer deal. On the other hand, Haddadi has struggled a bit out of the gate, shooting just 42.6%. Part of that is his inconsistent minutes, which have ranged from 27 to 37 to 42. There's also the contract distractions. On the other hand, Haddadi's proven himself in the postseason. Then again, his skill set seems similar in a lot of ways to Maric's and I'm not really sure that's what Miami needs.
Chances of Happening: Very, very remote

Kevin Love
Look up Jestorball PF in the dictionary and you'll find Love's picture. Huge, huge mancrush in Miami for this guy. He'd be a perfect fit in their system, but there's two caveats: 1) At 6'9, he's too short to play center. 2) The Bobcats know damned well Love would flourish in Miami's system so Charlotte would probably demand a blood price of Willie Warren. If the Heat didn't just acquire Boozer, maybe it'd be a different story. But because they did, I see giving up Warren as far too rich a cost for Miami's blood, particularly since it'd shallow their SG depth at an alarming rate.
Chances of Happening: Slim to None

Joakim Noah
The big man version of Moon, only he has beautiful passing and handling in his own right and he's a better shooter than you'd think. At 6'11, 238, he's a little thin to play center, but could probably do it in a pinch. He could potentially be a superlative 30+ minute a game 6th man backing up Boozer and Maric, eventually taking Boozer's place at PF once Warren develops and they don't need Carlos to fill the third star role in the Jestorball system. The two stumbling blocks here: 1) I haven't heard anything about the Blazers' asking price. If Portland wants Warren, though, the deal's probably dead on the table. 2) Contract. Noah's making $11.5 million. The Heat have $3.88 million in cap space. That's roughly $8 million to make up. Miller's $6.1 million expiring goes in for sure. Then probably one or two other players, with a pick included. Anthony Morrow would be a great fit for Portland's parched offense. If it's Day 90, I could see Michael Washington included as well.
Chances of Happening: Possible, although it depends on what Portland whats and if they can sort out the contracts

Vince Carter
He's 36 years old, but VC still has game and would probably beat Miller for the reserve SF spot. Big-time 3 point gunner and accurate, too, who could play both swingman spots and be a more balanced alternative to scoring on a stick Morrow. Two questions remain: 1) How much will Carter decline over the course of the season? 2) Will Miami be willing to overlook his tendency to have poorer showings in the playoffs? Naturally, this would be the least costly of the options and I'm hearing the front office is seriously considering it.
Chances of Happening: Very Possible

Don't sleep on
Serhiy Gladyr
-Beautiful shooter who can't find minutes with the Clippers. On the other hand, melted in the playoffs last year, hitting 22.2%, 14.3% from long-range. That's a fast way to get yourself uninvited to South Beach.

Miami Heat Players Likely To Be Gone By The Deadline

1. Michael Washington
Already complaining about being shoved down to the 12th man spot and passed over for Henk Norel, a second round pick last year. Stellar rebounder and shotblocker in the making with potential to improve on his inside shot and already has pretty good passing for a big man. Could develop the same in handling. The big knock on him is his discipline and IQ. That said, he's got very good work ethic and has the potential to be a terrific traditional bench big, able to play the 4 and 5 and if he manages to improve his discipline and basketball knowledge, he might even blossom into a starter. Perhaps the Indiana Pacers, who seem to love a similar player in Cheikh Samb? The difference is, Washington's already a better shooter and scorer and is a much more balanced player than Samb ever will be.

2. Anthony Morrow
Understand this - the front office really, really likes Morrow. He's one of the best bench scorers that doesn't get credit and he's an incredible gunner. The problem is, he's stuck behind Warren and Cook and has trouble finding minutes in a crowded Miami swingman situation. He's also the type of piece that has considerable value in some other front offices around the league, like say, Chicago.

3. Mike Miller
His expiring is a very attractive piece and although he's worked his way back into the rotation, he can still get moved for the right situation. Still has very solid game and is a savvy veteran.

Miami Heat Who Won't Be Going Anywhere

1. Chris Paul
Forget all the drama and buzz of last year and this past offseason. Yes, the Detroit Pistons sorely tempted the Heat with Amir Johnson and Miami's 2014 1st back, which would have been a lotto as the Heat plummeted to bottom-feeder status, but that temptation passed without the Heat biting, just as every other offer has gone declined. But the fact of the matter is, CP3 will stay in Miami for the rest of his career if the front office can help it. Jestor's made aggressive moves to turn the Heat into a winner while simultaneously building the future by stockpiling draft picks and stealing young players like Maric and Wonder Warren. And while we're looking ahead, CP3's top 3 priorities are:

1) Playing time
2) Money
3) Playing for winner

Starter and franchise face? Check. Money? You know Miami's throwing a max deal at him. Check. Playing for winner? We just showed the above moves and the Heat will still be a winning team by then, if not outright contending. Check.

2. Aleks Maric
17.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.7 blocks. An improving FG % and point scoring each year. Okay, the rebounds are low, please draw your attention to the following - 2.0 A/TO ratio. That's unheard of for a big man this side of Love, and that alone, on top of everything else Maric brings, means he's going nowhere.

3. Daequan Cook
Want to know the guy Miami gets the most calls about? It's not CP3. Not Maric. Not even Warren. It's Cook, who is absolutely loved by specific general managers around the league. Like Jestor. Like Manu. Like Najira. Like new Golden State Warriors GM Josh, who was reportedly immediately shot down when he mentioned Cook during trade talks. Daequan's one of those players who excel beyond what scouts view them as (Jestor insists that Martell "Webby" Webster, another cherished player, is another one of these), and that, combined with his cap-friendly contract, means there's almost no chance Cook leaves Miami.

And by almost no chance, we mean it like your super hot ex girlfriend telling you there's almost no chance you'll get back together while she's banging a bearded guy on the back of a Harley.

***

Context Notes
For whatever reason, my teams seem to be notoriously streaky. [b]Chris Paul[b]'s early struggles irritated me to the point where I considered (as I would repeatedly) trading him.

But at least we were steadying ourselves a bit after that shoddy 0-4 start. Man, I loved Jamario Moon at SF. Just loved the guy.

$10 Million Man Showing The Talent Former GM Talked About

Swingman Monty Myles says 'Holla atcha boy!'

Last offseason, Miami Heat GM Jestor drew laughter and disbelief around the league when he said Monty Myles had All-Star, if not franchise player potential after he traded for Myles is a stunning sign and trade. The Myles experiment lasted just 21 games before he was shipped to Houston in the Aleks Maric deal.

Now? The Rockets are a surprising 6-4, tied for the Southwest lead, and one of their leaders is none other than the $10 million man himself.

He's averaging 13.9 points, 5 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.5 steals, shooting 52.7% from the floor and 40.7% from downtown. Myles leads the Rockets in scoring and is second in assists, third in steals, and is second on the team with a 3.4 A/TO ratio. Could Myles at last be showing the potential that Jestor spoke of?

"You know, people get all wild and crazy about ish. I just go do what I do", said Myles, "If haters gonna hate, they gonna hate. Ain't no shame in what I do, holla! A lot of people be mad, brah, cuz I'm stylin' all over them."

Other than picking up Houston GM Gary Chan's lingo, Myles has posted a sterling 1.000% drive stop rate and is a key component of Houston's relentless, havoc-wreaking defense.

While not quite on an All-Star level, it's the best season Myles has ever had as he sits in the same starting SF spot the Miami Heat originally had planned for him.

With the San Antonio Spurs in disarray, the 2014 1st obtained in the deal might also well turn out favorable for the Rockets.

Of course, one can't say the trade turned all bad for the Heat. Maric is part of Miami's three star system, Devon Hardin was included in the deal that landed the Heat Carlos Boozer, and Mike Miller has done adequately in spelling Jamario Moon as the reserve SF, in addition to the financial benefits Miami gained from unloading Myles's lengthy, expensive contract.

Myles concurred that it worked out for both sides.

"Yeah, you know, I've got it going on here in Houston, the Spurs aren't doing so hot, and they're all busting a nut over Moon and Warren in Miami, so it's all good playa, cuz I'm the number one hustla who got mine. I got the rings, I got the money, I got the starting spot, leading the Rockets in scoring... I'm all that *and* a bag of chips, baby!"

Musselman Not Content With Five Game Win Streak

Miami head coach Eric Musselman has high expectations for his Heat

It's Miami Heat practice on a warm, humid fall day in South Florida. The team's running a scrimmage. Chris Paul drives and Marcus Banks strips the ball away, netting a steal.

"That's a lap, Paul!" shouts Eric Musselman, the Heat's head coach.

The franchise star head off the court and starts running a lap.

A few series later, reserve Henk Norel puts up a shot that's viciously blocked by Jamario Moon. Jon Brockman picks up the ball and starts toward the other end.

"Lap it, Norel!" yells Quin Snyder, the first assistant.

And the 7 foot Dutchman, too, begins a lap around the outside track.

Aleks Maric watches from his chair, sitting out the practice with food poisoning picked up at a joint in Milwaukee.

"You know how most teams try to avoid turnovers? Here, it's a religion", he says.

And so it is. For every turnover a player commits in practice, he runs a lap. At the end of practice, the entire team runs an extra lap for every 5 turnovers committed the game before, even if they didn't play or didn't commit a turnover. The Heat are just back from a doubleheader, so they run a lap for the 9 turnovers committed against the Bucks, and then two more laps for the 14 committed against the Timberwolves two nights ago.

On the wall of the Heat's practice facility are two large whiteboards. One has the Southeast division standings, with Miami 5-4 and in last place. The other is the team total turnover rankings. Miami, with 12.3 turnovers per game is second behind the Cavaliers, who have 11.3 a game.

Written underneath, "We still aren't #1!"

But the Heat do rank #1 in fewest blocks allowed, a statistic shrugged off by Musselman, as is the mention of Miami's five game win streak after an 0-4 start.

"Look at the standings. We're in last place and 2.5 games out. If the season ends today, we don't even go to the playoffs. We're still not good enough. One ninth of the season is over, and we're still not where we need to be. The streak is nice, but we need to keep it going."

Ever since Musselman brought the team back to what he calls the Jestorball fundamentals, the Heat have reeled off five straight wins, with an average margin of victory of 21.2 points. They've vaulted into a Top 5 scoring defense and have scored 105 points or more while holding their opponents to 97 points or less in each game after starting the season with four straight sub-100 point showings. Even more impressive is the fact that the streak includes two sets of back to back games, including the last two, both on the road.

We've covered the Mavericks and Spurs games, so we'll take a look at the last three victories.

First was a home game against the Bucks, a 105-73 dismantling keyed by Aleks Maric's 16 points, 10 rebounds and 2 blocks, Jon Brockman's incredible 18 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists and a block off the bench, and stifling team defense that forced 21 turnovers and held Milwaukee to 36.5% shooting, 27.8% from 3 point range. Meanwhile, Miami shot 50.6% and had just 5 turnovers.

Then came the road doubleheader. The Heat beat Minnesota 109-97, riding Carlos Boozer's 13 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists, Aleks Maric's 18 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and blocks, and Willie "Wonder" Warren's first 20 point game of his career, with 21. Not to be missed is Henk Norel's 4 for 4 shooting for 12 points in as many minutes off the bench.

Against Milwaukee in the Bradley Center the next night, Miami found it tougher going, but still came out 105-92 winners, thanks to Chris Paul's best game of the year - 30 points, 9 assists, and 3 steals, including 6 of 9 from 3 point range. As a team, the Heat was 13/21 from behind the arc, an obscene 61.9% 3 point conversion rate. Carlos Boozer just missed the double-double with 18 points and 9 rebounds and Marcus Banks was white-hot from the bench, connecting on 6 of 8 attempts for 13 points in 13 minutes. Miami shot 50% and although the Bucks were 45.2% themselves and 60% from 3 point range, they had 6 fewer long ball attempts than the Heat.

It of course remains to be seen how long Miami can keep things going and if the Heat can climb out of the cellar, but one thing is clear.

This team is in much better shape than they were two weeks ago and determined to prove preseason predictions of 4th or 5th place in the Southeast wrong.

Artest Acquired By Jestor In Gay Deal

Is Ron Artest a likely Heat addition?

After the recent decision by the Los Angeles Clippers to cut Ron Artest, people in South Beach immediately began to wonder if the Miami Heat would put in for him.

GM Jestor has an affinity for Artest, having acquired him while in Orlando, and while it's questionable as to whether he would start ahead of Jamario Moon, he would see considerable minutes off the bench.

Heat officials declined to comment, although an anonymous source said Miami will be putting in an offer for Artest's services soon.

Heat Win Streak To 7; Tough Schedule Ahead

Ron Artest has been the talk of the league following his dismissal from the Los Angeles Clippers

The Miami Heat have now won seven straight games, but even at 7-4, they sit in last place in the juggernaut Southeast. A growing rivalry between the Heat and the Wizards has gained more steam after the two GMs exchanged words over who had the better squad, adding to what was already started by the free agency war over Shawn "The Matrix" Marion.

But that's not the only Southeast intrigue going on these days. After league maverick Ron Artest was cut from the Clippers in effort to make franchise star Dwight Howard happy, the Orlando Magic, Washington Wizards, and Miami Heat all jumped in for the mercurial, defensive stalwart forward, along with the Sacramento Kings.

"Ron and I have a history, a relationship in this league. I traded for him before and Erick, the Magic's GM after me, dealt him and Martell "Webby" Webster after I came in. I've never quite forgiven him for either of those trades," Heat GM Jestor said.

Jestor went on to admit that Artest would be a reserve for now if he signed, but that he would see considerable minutes and, in event of injury to the swingmen, particularly Jamario Moon, would be moved into a starting spot.

"Only Ron and his agent know what he's thinking right now, but realistically speaking, there's only two teams in this race as far as I'm concerned, and that's the two teams who have a past link with him and the ability to give him significant playing time both now and in terms of an injury. That's us and the Sacramento Kings, who have Shane Battier and Ben Gordon, whom he played with in Denver last year. The Magic traded him and are overloaded with swingmen. The Wizards don't have any prior history and they've got James Anderson, Nick Smith, Shawn Marion, and Wally Szczerbiak all in the mix at the swing spots."

The conversation then moved into a discussion of the Heat's win streak.

"It's good to get back to winning," Jestor said, "But we've got a real test ahead of us... a back-to-back, with a home game against Portland and an away game in Atlanta. Those are two extremely critical games, both for continuing to show the preseason haters wrong, and to gain further ground in the Southeast race, narrowing that 2 game gap."

In the first of Miami's two most recent victories, a 105-75 ripping of the Jazz, Chris Paul showed MVP form with 32 points and 4 steals and Carlos Boozer banged in 15 points and 15 rebounds. Mike Miller and Daequan Cook each scored 10 points off the bench, but the real star was the Heat's defense, which forced 13 steals and held Utah to 39.5% shooting. The team also had just 6 turnovers.

Last night, the Heat beat the Atlantic-leading 76ers, 119-112 on Chris Paul's 22 points, 8 assists, and 5 steals, with Carlos Boozer and Aleks Maric each scoring 19, and the bench again coming through. Jon Brockman and Henk Norel scored 14 and 12 respectively. Miami proved great at thievery, stealing the ball 16 times, including a game-high 6 swipes by Willie "Wonder" Warren and kept the turnover total in single digits at 9. Their 11.7 turnovers a game now leads the league in fewest allowed per contest.

"We didn't play great yesterday," Jestor said, "We let them shoot 58.9%, 70% from 3 point land, and got outscored 68-58 in the second half. But the defense relaxed a bit after our 61-44 halftime lead, and Coach Eric Musselman told me he wanted to keep the team in good shape for the upcoming doubleheader against Portland and Atlanta."

Other Notes and News
In a whirlwind of big deals, Kevin Love, Hamed Haddadi, and Joakim Noah, three players rumored to be among Miami's targets, all got traded, including Haddadi and Noah for each other.

Jestor shrugged it off, saying it wasn't likely Miami could have gotten any of those players anyway, as the Heat are taking of a course of tight control with their assets, particularly with the team's recent form.

That didn't prevent one change from the Heat's roster happening, though. Milovan Rakovic, Jestor's second round pick last season, was cut, a move that insiders say is to free up a spot for Artest should he sign. The GM offered a slightly different take.

"The thing of it is, Milovan wasn't happy here. Henk and Michael Washington have both passed him on our depth chart and we didn't really see much chance of his getting any minutes. We've decided to let him go and allow him the opportunity to find a place where he can get more playing time."

With Rakovic's dismissal, there are now no players from Jestor's first Miami draft still with the team. Sergio Llull and Derrick "Double V" Byars were traded to the Houston Rockets as part of last season's Aleks Maric deal.

Some have suggested that the Heat could also make a play for Amar'e Stoudamire, the Philadelphia big man lavishly targeted in free agency by Jestor in Orlando, with a media campaign every bit as glitzy as his effort for Marion. That bid, too, ended in failure, as the Magic lacked the financial resources to capture him.

Such seems to be the case here, as the trade for Carlos Boozer has left the Heat without the cap space necessary to take on Stoudamire's contract and with Miami's largest assets that would willingly be traded in the form of draft picks, it appears the Heat will not be in the Stoudamire sweepstakes.

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Context Notes

There's a persistent superstition in sim leagues that to write about a successful team or player is to invite the Article Curse, whereby doing so will invite failure and doom on the covered subject.

Case in point? I'll let Billy Bucket of the Dallas Mavericks demonstrate:


I don't remember the result of the Artest claim offhand. I can't find him on the rosters on in free agency, so it appears he retired before the current season. I *think* he went to Sacramento if I remember right. It was either that or the Magic. I know it wasn't us or Washington.

In any case, it was good to be winning.

24 Point Win Crushes New-Look Blazers; Cook To Miss 3 Games

Henk "The Flying Dutchman" Norel is quickly becoming a Jestor favorite in Miami

If this game against the Blazers was meant to be a test of how good the Miami Heat are, then the Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic, Washington Wizards, Chicago Bulls, Charlotte Bobcats, and the whole league might have to take the Heat seriously as not just playoff hopefuls, not just Southeast Division contenders, but legitimate threats to win a ring.

105-81 was the final score, with Miami winning all four quarters en route to their 8th straight victory.

There was Chris Paul with 24 points and Aleks Maric overcoming a tough shooting night against fellow West transfer Hamed Haddadi in the latter's first game with the Blazers to double-double the poor man's 10 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks.

But the real stars of the game were none other than two Jestor favorites. One was Marcus Banks, continuing to show why Miami loves him so much, scoring 12 points with 7 assists and 2 steals to one turnover in 18 minutes.

And then there was Henk Norel.

The 7' Netherlands native officially joined Rik "The Dunking Dutchman" Smits as Hollanders who've achieved pro league nicknames tonight with an incredible 10 rebound, 4 assist, 3 steal, 4 block outing. His long arms windmilled everywhere, grabbing boards, throwing up rejections, swiping balls, and distributing. Those who sneer at his 1 for 5 shooting? He's still shooting 50% on the nose for the season and The Flying Dutchman finally had his first free throw miss of the season.

It was an inspired performance that had the home crowd celebrating in jubilation. The Heat shot 48.2%, 46.7% from long-range to the Blazers' 40.8%, 35.7%. Jamario Moon in particular shut down Carmelo Anthony, holding him to just one completion in 10 shot attempts and a season low, maybe even career-low 2 points.

Miami also won the turnover battle, 11 to 18, the Heat's trio of point guards forcing newcomer Luke Ridnour into 5 turnovers and Mike Bibby into 3.

Now at 8-4, the Heat stand a full game out of the Southeast lead and face a challenging game tonight on the road against the Atlanta Hawks.

"Every contest in the Southeast is critical", head coach Eric Musselman noted. "We have to settle down, get back into our focus, and beat the Hawks tomorrow night."

Miami will have to do it without Daequan Cook, who badly sprained his wrist and will likely be kept out of the next three games as a precautionary measure. It's expected that Anthony Morrow will step in his place unless the Heat sign Ron Artest before Cook returns.

In any case, it's a sweet, happy night in South Beach, even with Cook's misfortune.

Recent Cut Found With Depth Chart/Strategy Papers

Milovan Rakovic's already lackluster pro career took a hit with his arrest for stealing confidential Miami Heat documents

Former Miami Heat 2nd round pick Milovan Rakovic was arrested in Atlanta, Georgia today after police found him in possession of documents detailing the Miami Heat's depth chart and game plan. Rakovic, recently cut from the team, admitted that he stole the papers a few hours after being told of his dismissal.

"I hope those bastards lose every game from here on out. Bad enough to have that Washington kid ahead of me, but Henk (expletive) Norel? Mother of God, they are such fools there!"

Rakovic intended to deliver the papers to the Hawks before tonight's game against the Miami Heat, but allegedly retired NFL quarterback Brett Favre, vacationing in the city, took the papers from Rakovic when the two met at bar. They were promptly intercepted by the bartender, a Miami Heat fan.

The documents are in the process of being returned to the Miami Heat. Team officials declined comment, except to say they would be reviewing their security measures to make sure this doesn't happen again.

Miami fans hope this doesn't mean the Curse of Rakovic as the Heat try to extend their eight game winning streak.

10-8 Heat Still 8th In The Playoff Race

Mercurial Miami Heat GM Jestor erupted after the team's loss in Denver

It seems somehow fitting that this Heat team is one of the streakiest in the league. A four game losing streak followed by an eight game losing streak, then a two game losing streak, a two game winning streak, and another two game losing streak (and counting). The front office is, after all, headed by Jestor, the executive known for his boom and bust moves and his wild mood swings regarding the season.

That tempermental variety was in full force after the Heat's loss to Denver, a game in which Miami turned the ball over 20 times and allowed the Nuggets to shoot 50.3%, the fourth straight road game the Heat have surrendered 50+% shooting to an opponent. Naturally, all four of those games have been losses, although just one was by more than 8 points.

According to reports, the GM ripped into the refs and railed on the team for its lack of ball security and dreadful 3 point shooting (2 of 12 - 16.7%). The Heat have struggled from behind the arc this year, hitting just 32.9%, 23rd in the league. Jestor vowed to immediately go out and find a reliable 3 point shooter, preferably at small forward.

Still, in spite of the troubles, the Heat are still holding on to the last playoff seed in the East with their 10-8 record and if they can manage to regain a more consistent winning form, Miami could see itself elevated further above the drop zone, in spite of losing to a Nuggets team that had two players out with broken noses.

6 of 8 Losses Has Front Office Fuming

Fans are furious over team's sudden lack of futility

At this point, the Miami Heat's poor run of form is about more than its inability to convert 3 point shots. In losing six of their last eight games, including three straight defeats, it's become about the Heat's inability to guard anyone. Multiple opponents in the last eight games have shot 50% or better and this is on a team that employs Jon Brockman, Jamario Moon, and Chris Paul on defense, with the only horrible defender Anthony Morrow.

Daequan Cook and Mike Miller shoulder much of the blame, both in shooting slumps. Miller in particular last made a shot 2 weeks ago and even then he was 2 of 8. Cook is shooting an astonishingly low 40.8% and his value has dropped so low, only one team inquired about him after the Heat let it be known they were testing his value.

Jon Brockman, after an initial hot start, has gone back to his poor shooting ways, enough so that rookie Michael Washington is finally starting to get some non-garbage minutes. In his first true time, a 21 point loss to the Wizards, Washington had 4 rebounds and a block in 8 minutes.

The front office has made several inquiries for a 3 point shooter to bolster their offense, but for the most part, the cost has either been too high or it was a player deemed untouchable. One possibility did arise, but that trade can't happen until Day 90 and, as the old saying goes, anything can happen.

Although Miami is exploring a shakeup, Chris Paul, Willie Warren, and Aleks Maric are all declared non-negotiable by the Heat. Carlos Boozer becomes trade eligible in a couple weeks, but the front office's refusal to add compensation for his massive salary means he likely won't move. Jamario Moon is trade eligible, but given the Heat's weakness at SF, isn't likely to go unless Miami acquires a suitable replacement elsewhere. Mike Miller's expiring would doubtless be attractive to teams hunting for cap space.

An inside source, however, doubted Miami would be trading at all.

"Teams right now are only after two things, young superstars and picks. Miami's not going to deal CP3, Warren, or Maric, despite all the calls they get about them, and the Heat aren't in a must contend now mode so they're not likely to deal the Clippers first. In fact, the Suns' pick is more likely to move, what with that donkey in charge there now.

If anything or anyone goes, it'll probably end up being the Knicks' 2014 2nd. But even that's iffy. A lot of GMs right now are in overvaluing their players mode. We just talked to a team last week and they wanted a first round pick for a 33 year old bench guy on a small expiring contract. That's how absurd it is right now."

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Context Notes
Right around this time donkey33 came back and took over the Phoenix Suns, which ruined the value of the first we got in the Boozer deal, simply because he's the one who orchestrated the Detroit Pistons dynasty.

Trade market was being a real bitch. 3 Southeast teams (us, Atlanta, Charlotte) and the Milwaukee Bucks were all in a scrum for the last 2 playoff spots, and other GMs were trying to take advantage of the situation and get at least an overpay, if not an outright trade rape.

But while I've occasionally overpaid, I've never let myself get bent over. Not even when we were back down to .500.

Veteran Off To Good Shooting Form

Miami Heat fans hope G Jarrett Jack can bring some accurate shooting to the team

The Miami Heat have been hunting for improved depth in the back court and after much phone calls and discussions around the league, they've made a small move, acquiring 30 year old combo guard Jarrett Jack from the New Jersey Nets for the Heat's 2015 2nd round draft pick.

Jack hasn't received a lot of playing time this season, but when he has, he's done extremely well, shooting 66.7% and, more importantly for Miami's 3 point woes, 80% from beyond the arc. He's also yet to miss a free throw this season, addressing another weakness in the Heat's game.

"This is one of those tiny trades that doesn't get a lot of hype, but one whose impact could pay off significant dividends", GM Jestor said at the press conference announcing the deal. "It gives Coach Musselman another weapon to play with in our backcourt."

Just where Jack figures in that backcourt rotation is anyone's guess. Marcus Banks has been solid as Chris Paul's top backup, albeit inaccurate from 3 point range and in a timeshare with Mantas Kalnietas, the latter of whom has continued his traditional poor shooting form, even if improved from prior years.

There's also the possibility the newest Heat could see time at the SG spot, as Miami might want to move Daequan Cook to the backup SF spot until rookie Tasmin Mitchell returns from injury, giving the Heat of luxury of benching the putridly shooting Mike Miller.

Jestor refused to comment on whether this trade signals a possible move of Cook and furthermore declined to even confirm whether the Heat have been shopping the underachieving 26 year old.

"We're about improving the team and snapping this cold run of form right now. This is a trade we feel improves our team, with a very low risk attached", the GM said.

Miami On 3 Game Win Streak - Face Tough Road Series Next

Jarrett Jack has made a favorable impression so far in Miami

The first Florida War skirmish of the 2013 season was a thrilling matchup that ended in a narrow 109-106 victory for the home Heat. Demar Derozan was magnificent in the loss, battling through injury for 36 points and 5 rebounds, effortlessly shooting. After the game, Miami GM Jestor remarked that he was ready to call Derozan "one of the top 3 players in the entire league".

Chris Paul, Miami's own MVP candidate, struggled from the floor (4 of 12), but still finished with 24 points and 10 assists to 1 turnover due largely to going 14/14 from the free throw line. That effort mirrored Carlos Boozer's, who despite shooting 4 of 13, double-doubled for 15 points and 14 rebounds, thanks to 7 of 9 from the charity stripe.

The real surprise of the game was Jamario Moon. Traditionally known for his poor shooting, he made 7 of 8 field goals, posting an excellent all-around game of 14 points, 8 rebounds, 2 steals, and 3 blocks. He also held Kobe Bryant to 40% shooting, 12.2% below his season average.

Aleks Maric was also an efficient shooter and had 22 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 blocks by game's end. Unfortunately, he also turned the ball over 5 times. That same turnover total was committed by newcomer Jarrett Jack, who was 3 of 7 for 6 points and 4 assists in his debut.

Head coach Eric Musselman informed Maric and Jack after the game that they would both be doing 100 stomach crunches after the team's next practice, which shocked Jack.

"I knew Miami took their turnovers seriously, but I didn't know they were that fanatical about it. Kind od crazy, but cool, too", Jack said afterwards.

Some feared a letdown against the Boston Celtics after that emotional win, but the 125-92 rout proved otherwise. Aleks Maric led all scorers with 23 points, Carlos Boozer doubled again with 15 points and 12 rebounds on much more efficient shooting, and Chris Paul scored 20.

But the real story was the bench, where Anthony Morrow connected on 8 of 13 shots for 18 points, Daequan Cook scored 10 points in 17 minutes, and Jarrett Jack showed his lesson learned with 10 points, 8 assists, and just 1 turnover on 5 of 8 shooting.

A tough two-game road series comes up next against the Sacramento Kings and the Los Angeles Lakers.

"Every game is important," Musselman said. "We've struggled on the road this year, so this is our chance to get things turned around."

The Heat currently hold the 8th seed in the playoffs, following their last victory.

Heat Hold 8th Seed By 2, Still 5 Games Out

Make no mistake about it - PG Chris Paul is still the team MVP

Miami Heat GM Jestor said repeatedly before the season began that how his team did this year depended on the early part of the schedule. We're 30 games through the season and the Miami Heat, at 17-13, are in 8th place in the East, two games in front of the surprising .500 Indiana Pacers for the last playoff spot.

They've won their last two games, beating the Lakers 97-79 on the road via Chris Paul's 27 points and 10 assists and Carlos Boozer's 29 points and 11 rebounds, before shredding the Hawks in Miami for their second Southeast victory. That 114-83 blast came courtesy of Chris Paul's 23 points and 2 steals, Anthony Morrow's whopping 21 bench points, and newest Heat Jarrett Jack's 10 points, 8 assists, 4 steals and just one turnover.

A difficult Detroit test awaits next, but this article is more about an overview of the first 30 games.

The Good
1. The three star system is going as planned
*Chris Paul - 20.2 points, 6.9 assists, 1.7 steals, 5 A/TO ratio - 49.7% shooting, 40.8% from long-range
*Aleks Maric - 16.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.8 blocks - 55.6% shooting
*Carlos Boozer - 14.5 points, 8.7 rebounds - 51.4% shooting

Paul and Maric are having career best seasons in terms of their shooting accuracy and the three stars have played extremely well off each other. This is Boozer's best rebounding season since 2009 with the Bulls and Maric is not only having a career high in shooting %, he's also posting a career best in points scored per game. Another interesting statistic - Maric's 0.8 PA/SF is tied with legendary defender Jamario Moon and Maric's backup, Henk Norel, for best on the team. While Boozer has been something of a disappointment on defense, his rebounding and offensive game have more than made up for it.

Maric becomes a RFA after next season, but you can bet the Heat will do everything in their power to lock him up in the extension period. As one source says, he's been the most untouchable player on Miami's roster, with all inquiries on him receiving a curt, "No." Another curious note: Maric is actually 3/5 (60%) from 3 point range this year.

2. Miami's sacrosanct attitude towards ball security again has them #1 in fewest turnovers allowed
At 11.1 turnovers a game, they're averaging almost a full turnover a game less than the second place Cleveland Cavaliers and both those teams are the only ones even close to averaging 12 or under a game, with the third place Kings averaging 12.9 giveaways.

That ball security also translates into fewest steals surrendered per game, or rather, tied with the Cavaliers at 5.4 steals allowed. This emphasis on ball security is critical for a team whose bench is largely considered as not up to snuff with the rest of the East's playoff teams.

3. Anthony Morrow's re-emergence
The 21 point outing against the Hawks was just the latest sign in Morrow's revitalization. He's playing with increased confidence after finding his way back in the rotation and is shooting a career-high 50.5%, 44.8% from 3 point range. He may only be averaging 7.5 points a game, but that's in 13.3 minutes. That point total will increase and may break double-digits by season's end, as he's been averaging around 15-16 minutes a game since re-establishing himself. The front office will almost certainly do whatever they can to re-sign him in free agency.

4. Improved Team Defense
One of the biggest reasons why the Heat are in better shape at this point than they were last season is improved team defense. They rank #7 in fewest points allowed at 93.3 points a game, just 0.1 behind the #6 Wizards, and are #8 in turnovers forced at 16.9 a game. They also rank tied for #9 in steals per game at 8.7 with the Raptors, 0.1 steals behind the Traiblazers.

The Bad
1. Unhappiness among a few reserves
PG Mantas Kalnietas and PG Marcus Banks are unhappy with having been supplanted by Jarrett Jack in the rotation and PF/C Michael Washington still feels he should be getting more minutes over Jon Brockman and Henk Norel. The coaching staff will monitor the situation, but at least none of the three disquieted benchmen are close to causing problems as of yet.

2. Opponents' shooting % is trending up.
Despite all the good things on defense, the Heat are still allowing too many shots to be made by opponents, even if their 47.3% grades out at an average 18th. More telling - only the Bulls, who are all about the run and gun, have a worse shooting % allowed out of the East's playoff teams. Heat coach Eric Musselman will have to work on this if Miami wants to be successful, both in the regular season and the playoffs, should the team get there.

3. Daequan Cook's decline
His shooting percentages are back up to 43.3 and 34.8 from long range, but Cook's dropoff is one of the most confusing storylines of Miami's season. He's gone from the starter all the way to part of a time-share with Jack and Morrow off the bench all in the course of the season. Much more telling, even when the Heat tested his value on the market recently, only one team inquired about him. His stock, both on the Heat and around the league, has dropped significantly.

The Ugly
1. Mike Miller
The coaching staff figured out fairly early on why the front office hates him so much. He shot a career worst 31.6% before getting permanently benched, first in favor of second round rookie Tasmin Mitchell, then in favor of the Jack/Morrow/Cook rotation. More tellingly, Miami has gone 5-1 since permanently banishing him to the bench. His $5.1 million expiring contract won't be in South Florida next year. That's already a given. He'll be renounced and sent packing.

2. Jon Brockman's defensive struggles
For a guy known for his defense, the team-high 1.3 PA/SF is shocking, but even more stunning is his team worst -15.9 net. His -4.7 on court is better only than Tasmin Mitchell's and it's possible he could see more of his minutes taken by Washington if that disturbing trend continues.

3. Team 3 point and FT shooting
32.1% (#26) and 73.7% (#25) are among the worst in the league. Morrow's return to the rotation has helped out the 3 point shooting significantly, but none of the Heat big men shoot better than 77.8% from the charity stripe, with Brockman's 50.8% the most offensive inaccuracy.

Trade Rumors
Things have been very quiet around South Florida in terms of trade talks. With the Heat refusing to even consider trade proposals for Chris Paul, Willie Warren, or Aleks Maric, and the market dead for Daequan Cook, the chances of a deal being made seem quite remote.

If a trade does occur, there's a greater chance of it occurring around Day 90, when most of the roster opens up for eligibility. Boston Dave is said to want Jon Brockman back with him and it's possible some of the other currently restricted players outside of Warren and Paul could interest teams.

But one inside source called a trade by one of the most active GMs in the league "highly unlikely", saying that the Heat were happy with the composition of their team for the most part and don't want to risk disrupting their carefully composed chemistry or rotation.

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Context Notes
Man, I loved that Jarrett Jack trade for the spark he gave us immediately following the deal. As most people who trade with me know, I tend not to place much emphasis on 2nd rounders, and am always willing to deal them, unless it's a projected early 2nd.

As I'm reposting and rereading these articles, I'm starting to notice that defensive struggles are a common trend for Jestorball teams.