Alright boyz - 2004 Presidential Election Thread
 

Someone had to do it. :)

It is good to be home.

Just in time, too. It'll be fun monitoring the boards as we monitor the returns.

Group hug!

If I could hug a message board I'd do so right now! :)

BTW, much to Franklinnoble's dismay I'm sure, I was the Patriotic Undies on Bennie Lou's board, so I stand by my prediction that Kerry will win big.

Nice job, I thought it was WSUCougar.

the #'s look pretty good for John Kerry so far from the exit polls, even if you do have to take it with a huge Texas sized grain of salt..

Bringing that discussion over here, after Jim's detailing of the early exit polls, someone suggested that those polls might have been skewed because they were heavily female. Anyone have a source for that? Can anyone get to exit-poll.net, or is it impossible?

I looked at exit-poll.net (using Google cache) , but it seemed like a subscription service you have to pay for to get the information in any case.

I don't have a source, but I have heard from several people around here that the polls were 59 female. They attribute the source to Drudge, but I can't find it there and he has killed exit-poll.net by linking to it.

I can't even load the front page. But buying a subscription to that is even more of a waste than subscribing to rivals.com for recruiting info on signing day.

I think the service is designed for news organizations to subscribe to (not individuals) - that is why they probably weren't expecting the Drudge traffic to crash their site.

Huh. Odd that he would link to them then.

What time do you expect the final "estimation" to be published ?

I feel so...funky. :p

My guess is that he is a subscriber and wanted to show the 6 news organizations that are using it (that was the text of the link I saw). Of course, he should have known the result.

It will probably be the last time we are confused for one another. :p

But will it be the last time either of you are accused of being snugly wrapped around Ben's supple buttocks? :D

I just don't buy the exit polls, it's way too early IMO for Drudge or anyone else to be calling Senate races. Let's relax a bit and let more info come in.

Yeah, I'm shocked he would call the Martinez/Castor race already. Especially since Castor appeared to be in the lead, and he called it for Martinez.

I found a well-known blog posting exit polls:

http://www.dailykos.com/

Party pooper.

slate has new exit polls up that show things tipping Kerry's way, though not as dramatically as the earlier exits. the major one though is PA, where slate shows a 58-42 Kerry edge. Supposedly (and I think that is still a big supposedly), these exits are better sampled than the morning run.

Bush's prices on the Iowa markets (and other similar markets) have crashed throughout the day.

Back off man, I'm a scientist. :)

I could have called that. I think the Kerry win will be closer though.

That's just because you were moderator over there. Now you are back in Skydog territory, so you better step off. :p

I have more control on this board (though only allowed to use it when asked) than on that board. I actually just guessed.

Damn it! Foiled again. I can never fool the master or mis-spelling.

Good won. :)

I knew there was something alluring about those patriotic undies... you tease.

Here is the link to the slate poll page: http://slate.msn.com/id/2109053/

"Service Unavailable"

:(

I get that sometimes too. Try going to the main Slate page and it is the top story link.

1 hour and counting before early returns.

Polls just closed here. Bush has around 60% of the 1% of votes reported so far.

If Kerry wins, I'm moving. I'm not like one of those poser Hollywood idiots either, I actually mean it.



.....


But then again, I'm moving if Bush wins too. ;)

No surprises here. Bush leading with 63% and 5% reporting.

I don't like typing again so I'll just paste my election duty post from ben's place (to make it FOFC-compatible of course).

Having juse voted, I am reminded at how easy the process is here (compared to elsewhere supposedly). We are fairly populous county (184 precints) and well educated, yet we still fill in bubbles on a large Scantron-like card. Computer voting is just prone to too many problems, glitches and hacks. I think a long time ago we did use punch cards but we all saw how those can problematic too. If you want to make sure your vote counted and counted correctly, how about keeping it simple?

For the first time ever, I voted consistently. I held my nose on President but every other elected office, I voted straight Libertarian - included our contentious Senate race (Coors/Salazar). Of course, I voted out all of the judges and voted NO on every single Amendment. I want to actively make a difference instead of the status quo and these votes (except for President) is my way of doing so.

Sabotai, I saw your vote post and I would be curious as to why a fellow libertarian would vote Kerry. Am I right in assuming that you would want to go for gridlock?

According to the Balance of Power graphics, there is ONE seat filled for the House of Representatives. Please Lord, don't let them add any more...please???

That was the deciding thing (if I read right what you mean by "gridlock"). The House will stay republican and I think the Senate will as well (haven't been following possible senate races). With a Dem in the White House, they'll kind of offset. Kerry won't get his big plans pushed through a congress opposed to him while at least some of those republican bills that are all passing without a threat of veto will start getting vetoed.

Besides, Bush has been against a lot of the important issues for me. No importing prescription drugs from Canada (that's anti-free market). Not allowing Medicare (or Medicaid...whatever) to negotiate drugs costs (anti-free market in more ways than one). He's Pro-Life, I'm pro-choice and I don't trust him for one second that he wouldn't have some kind of lipmus test (sp?). I hear him speak of fiscal responsibility, which he has made no effort to be. The Patriot Act. No Child Left Behind (federal involvement in education).

He's the worst kind of republican.

And don't get me started on Cheney, Ashcroft and Rumsfeld...those 3 are worth a vote against even if I liked Bush.

I don't expect Kerry to fix a tenth of the damage Bush has done, but at the least, he might be able to reverse some of what Bush has done, but not be able to push his own (non)solutions to things. Gridlock.

Plus, getting Kerry in the White Hosue does two things potentially. It could get McCain to run in 2008. I think the Rep. Party would want to follow a Bush second term with a repub that is more like Bush, meaning not McCain. If Bush loses, maybe it'll knock some sense back into the republican party. And two, it stops Hillary from running in 2008.

I think we can both agree that a Hillary Clinton Presidency is something that needs to be avoided at all costs. :)

No call in Ohio at close (no surprise) but I am shocked they can't call North Carolina yet. Isn't that a pretty strong red state?

That's an interesting statement, sab. Even if one were to go along with the damage that was done (wasn't a lot of it undoing the damage that Clinton did? I digress.), aren't we are certain that a Kerry administration will cause damage on their own - that someone like McCain would have to come in and fix?

Apart from being philosophical that we did manage to get through 8 years of Clinton (thanks, in part, to a Rep. Congress), we can get through 4 years of Kerry, if elected. It will be 4 because as you said, you got some very electable Rep. coming in 2008 (McCain, Owens, et al) and the Dems will counter with the likes of the Clinton Bitch, Dean and Obama.

Yep, it was supposed to be solidly Bush as was Virginia which still hasn't been called yet.

Which brings to mind a question. What in the world did Edwards add to the ticket, besides being a sleazy trial lawyer?

That was supposed to be a sign of Kerry strength nation wise according to the early talking heads.

I think North Carolina will eventually go for Bush but it won't surprise me if it's really close, more Democratic-leaning urban voters plus disillusioned manufacturing sector workers will give Kerry a good bit of support.

Remember what's different this year is that the media will hold off until they have enough information. For those more populous states (OH, VA, NC), there is not information yet.

That is true, but the point is that these two states are too close though they should be solid Bush wins. It might suggest a 1-2% tick up for Kerry across the board which would give him a win.

Just an early talking point, not a slam dunk indicator like the Redskins losing.

Looks like WV has gone to Bush (which isn't a big surprise, although some thought it might not get called right away).

What's cracking me up about CNN's coverage is that since they're calling the states on strong exit polls, but they have the same crawl system set up, you see things like:

Georgia (called for Bush) Bush 38% 130 - Kerry 62% 212

Those 342 votes must count a hell of a lot! ;)

GD, it all depends which 1% of the precincts they count first, from an urban area or a statewide sample. I believe that differs from state to state.

Anyone have a good line on the Kentucky Senate race? Looks like right now Bunning is showing as losing, I thought people felt that was a pretty safe GOP hold.

Last I saw, he was trailing but it's still wayyyyyyy early.

I think what it indicates is that the exit polls were much closer in NC and VA than expected. They still are using exit polls and then filling in the statistical model with actual results until they get a degree of certainty (1 in 300 of being wrong according to FoxNews compared to 1 in 250 in 2000). If the exit polls were as strong for Bush as the pre-election polls, they'd have been called by now, especially in VA where the polls closed at 6 pm.

You know, despite all of the rhetoric and gnashing of false teeth, we have to feel very fortunate that 1) no domestic terrorists act disrupted the election and 2) that we can have a peaceful election and no one will riot as the result.

Exactly.


BTW, Dan Rather is still nuts and it hasn't even gotten late yet.

Not sure if anyone posted this yet, but WTF, I am doing it anyways...
Exit Polls Report as of 4PM

Hasn't history shown that exit polls are fallible?

Yes, but your still missing the point. If it were a wide margin, then they could and would call. A close margin is what messes up exit polls, and that looks good for Kerry (not to win those states, but as a trend for even closer states).


Latest Rather line: Don't taunt the aligator until you have already crossed the creek.

Basically, yeah. As long as we keep alternating presidents who have to spend a good portion of time fixing the mistakes of the previous election, they don't have time to do a lot of damage. IOW, they don't get going. There's no momentum and nothing major really gets totally fucked up. Keeping one party in chage of the execuative and the other in charge of the legislative also helps prevent the Prez doing some major damage. I really think if Bush wins, and the congress stays Republican, the next 4 years will be very very bad.


Let's hope by 2012, the Dems find some one else besides Dean and Clinton, although I doubt Dean is "electable". Unless McCain wins in 2008, then let's hope the Dems keep shooting themselves in the foot. Then hopefully by 2016, Clinton and Dean is out of the picture.

Ideally, we would like libertrian minded moderates from either side. Right now, Bush and Kerry, are way too far to the right or left. Hopefully, after enough 1 term presidencies, they'll get the picture and start going back to the middle.

Any poll can be fallible. The average poll is wrong 5% of the time. Exit polls tend to be more accurate than an average poll, but the media still waits to report until they can do so with the odds of the poll being wrong only 1 out of 300 times (edit: At least that's FoxNews criteria, I'd guess all media have similar criteria). The bigger the statistical lead in the original exit polls the less % of precincts reporting are needed.

Right now Virginia has 12% reporting and Bush with 57%, but they still haven't called it. That indicates to me that the exit polls were very close.

But a wide margin where? It's only as good as the sampling data and where you choose to poll. For example, here in Rep-dominated Colorado Springs, there are no sampling or exit polling because the model is predictive. However, if you look at just Denver and Pueblo for exit polling, then the results will be skewed.

As much as I would love to see this happen, I just don't think the national Republican Party will let McCain be their nominee. He's too moderate for many of them, and he doesn't play nice with their political machine, as was seen by its reaction to him in the 2000 election. That said, I think he could win in a landslide if he was nominated. He's just that popular, I'd be jumping for joy to vote for him.

Bunning should have easily won, but throughout the campaign continued to make mistakes. I believe he is becoming senile. He cheated during one of the debates and has insulted Mongiardo several times (for example saying he looked like one of Saddam's sons).

That's why they use a statistical model. The exit polls are weighed statewide based on dozens of factors. The accuracy improves as more precincts report. If they are slow to call a state like they have been in VA where Bush is expected to win solidly with 12% of the precinct reporting it indicates exit polls that were much closer than expected.

CNN is calling New Jersey for Kerry, despite the polls in recent days I never imagined that state going for Bush.

The New England States and Illinios close and the race tightens.

CNN: Bush 66 Kerry 77 (They still haven't called SC?)
CBS: Bush 80 Kerry 77

CBS has been the most aggressive of all nets so far. They just called NC and Virgina for Bush

CBS: Bush 108 Kerry 77
CNN: Bush 66 Kerry 77
Drudge: Bush 66 Kerry 77
ABC: Bush 66 Kerry 77

looking at CNN's county by county thing, looks like Bush is doing pretty well in the critical Florida counties. He may have a good shot to win the state.

In a shocker, Obama wins the Senator seat in IL.

:)

florida is shaded as leaning bush on yahoo.com

Al Jazeera has just called Fallujah for Kerry...

CNN said Bush has a 55%-45% lead, but very little have reported in florida.

56-44 Kerry in Ohio?

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html...SULTS_GRAPHIC/ is probably more accurate at this time. The networks are doing their shit just so they can get viewers watching their ads.

and Iran for Bush...

What about the Black Gay Republicans?

Anyone has an exit poll from the dead votes?

I don't know Bucc...who did you vote for?

;)

From CNN

Projections: Kerry to win N.J., Bush strong in South


If the Northeast goes all blue as expected, would (should?) the South secede again?

That would be cool. Perhaps Northern Virginia could break off like West Virginia did and become it's own state. :D

Hey, I'm still breathing in and out. At least my ID and my live presense matched me up to what's on the voter roll. I don't think we can say that in some precincts aournd the country.

I liked the comment on MSNBC that the north and south can't agree so the midwest is going to decide it for us :)

Line from some reporter on Fox News:

I don't think I could say anything more smart than that.

He seems to be channeling the spirit of Ross Perot.

This election season/night has been a fun strategy game, which has been my primary interest in following along.

New states and the updates:

CBS: Bush 162 Kerry 112
CNN: Bush 155 Kerry 112
Drudge/Yahoo: Bush 102 Kerry 77

Still people standing in line in Ohio. Im thinking that if Ohio goes Kerry, and Wisconsin goes Bush, its a dead heat assuming florida for bush and pennsylvania for kerry.

Based on actual results coming in, it appears Florida was a fair bit off at least in exit polling. Exit polling gave 52/48 Kerry, actual results with 50% in is 53/46 Bush. If this holds up, keep in mind exit polling in Ohio was 52/48 Kerry, WI I think they said 53/46.

Dola...it appears results are coming in from Bunning strongholds and he's now come back to basically a dead heat in the Kentucky Senate race with about 80% in. Hopefully this stops soon so we have 1 less crazy guy in the Senate.

FL is a bit wonky still, the Heavy Dem areas still aren't in I think

They are just starting to report, and with every count full percentage points drop of Bush (just like in 2000, where Bush had big leads untill the large Dem counties were reported).

At what point do we start hearing about alleged voting fraud and abuse and bad ballots?

Started this morning.

I heard about it before i went to work today, as Ohio voting is already shaping up to be extremely shady.

Just like in 2000, I don't think we will know tonight.

Pretty interesting so far, but nothing shocking yet. I was also very confident Kerry would easily take New Jersey, and the quick call indicates that it isn't very close.

That was the state I had predicted that we will have a FL 2000-like controversy.

Probably not.