FOFC GroupThink 2023: We take over the Detroit Lions
 

Fresh off our GRAND SUCCESS last year:

FOFC GroupThink 2022: We take over the NY Football Giants

...we now set our sights on a goal, to, ahem, Restore (?) the Roar.

The Lions have some fascinating pieces to build around, two first round draft picks, and a number of pretty interesting front office decisions ahead of them this spring.

Let's get decked out in our Honolulu_Blue (whatever punctuation you use there) and figure this thing out, shall we?

Lessee if we can pull together a nice PFF snapshot:

And the Defense:

OTC Salary Cap Analysis: Detroit Lions Salary Cap | Over the Cap

...and their cap space thingie for all teams: NFL Salary Cap Space | Over The Cap

A view from the inside via hockey boy:

Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - NFL 2023 Offseason/Free Agency/Draft Thread

My quick take is: the underbrush housecleaning that seems easy enough to do would be to release DL Brockers and RG Vaitai for about 16.5m in cap relief, and then maybe WR Reynolds for another 3m or so. Could entertain any among them as a re-sign but current contracts don't make sense.

$2m freed up by releasing a meh FB Cabinda makes sense, too. But I bet they love his toughness or something.

#KeepGoff

I think that the Lions are in a good position with him. Some pocket change roster bonuses ($5 million this year and next year) and a $30 million annual cap hit this season and in 2024. That is very doable. And it gives the team two more full seasons to make a decision on him. The best thing they can do with him is nothing.

I would avoid the temptation of extending him to reduce his cap hit. If it turns out that last season was fool's gold, you don't want to be locked into it though 2026.

I also think that you have to consider that this is the Lions. You CANNOT ask this fanbase to have the patience for another rebuild with a rookie QB. This team has momentum after last season, and you can't just throw that away.

And Dan Campbell's is part of this, too. Who is a better QB for the knee biter than the guy who's first team was so sick of him that they traded assets to get rid of him? There's a synergy to the cast-off QB leading the Lions to the playoffs. And normally, I think that that kind of momentum/synergy stuff is overrated. But if there's one coach who makes me believe that it matters--it's Dan Campbell.

So maybe Goff isn't taking you to a Super Bowl. But there's no way I'd cast him off to draft a rookie.

Maybe grab a guy in the 4th round to groom.

The Lions ended last year with a winning record.

I think it's best that we quit while we're ahead.

I 100% agree with Brockers and Vaitai. Brockers was benched halfway through the season and Vaitai was injured all last year.

Josh Reynolds is trickier. He was signed mid-way through the 2021 season and really solidified the recover position. He played with Goff in L.A. and they have a good report. With Chark’s UFA status, I think we keep Reynolds.

I need to deep dive a bit more on others. I think Romeo Okwara could be a candidate to be cut. He came back from a torn Achilles last year and just wasn’t the same…

If the Lions commit to Goff, then a trade that seems to work according to the random draft calculator I just found is giving #6 and #184 (Denver 6th rounder) to the Panthers for #9 and #62 (San Fran 2nd rounder)

That lets Carolina jump up to grab a QB if one falls and gets the Lions a 2nd round pick while remaining in the top 10.

I'd jump on that in a heartbeat.

dola: A similar trade with the Falcons at #8 is also possible, depending on if they are really serious about rolling with Ridder.

I think #6 in this draft is begging to trade down with someone experiencing one of those four-hour hardons. There's a nice tier of players starting somewhere around 4-5 and descending until the teens or twenties. I hate drafting at the top of a tier.

it was really fun to follow DET last season. keeping Goff is a priority and no-brainer in my opinion -- not that i think that DET is even considering another option. it's difficult to get a qb of his level and swapping guys in real life is generally not a good recipe for long-term success. goff is good enough to bring DET to the playoffs and perhaps to a deep playoff run. surround him with talent and play to his strengths. don't over think and self implode like TEN with tannehill and aj brown.

Totally agree. A defensive lineman (or edge) or cornerback seem to be the biggest area of need and after Carter and Anderson there’s a bit of a cliff, so assuming those two will be gone by 6 (which will almost certainly be the case) trading down is our best option here. There seems to be three top tier consensus cornerbacks in Witherspoon, Gonzales and Porter Jr and along the d-line it appears to be some combination of Myles Murphy, Tyree Wilson, Brian Breese, or Lukas Van Ness.

There's still a hole at linebacker for the Lions IMO. Malcolm Rodriguez played above expectations in a bit of a spotlight last year, which was good to see, but that's about the end of the good things you can muster about any of the inside linebacker play. Alex Anzalone is the big Q for Lions at LB, he's a free agent & played about as well as he ever has for the Lions last year and has effectively been acting as the heart of that defense since Campbell's arrival, but it seems like his ceiling on the field is still 'decent'. Do you risk upsetting the chemistry of the (bottom tier) defense to let him walk and chase upgraded talent through either the draft or FA, or do you pay a premium for his leadership and consistency?

Anzalone suffered through shoulder injuries with the Saints--not great for a stack linebacker. He's a fine player when healthy, but you can't bank on that. And I get that chemistry means more to a Dan Campbell team than most. But you can't make every decision based on that.

I'd make him a fair offer, but if another team wants to overpay, I would not match it.

Robert Woods is hitting the market. Could be a good low cost add unless he threw Goff under the bus while I wasn’t paying attention.

I like the thinking. Sinking major resources into off-ball LB is folly. Just too few difference maker guys out there. If you find Fred Warner, great, keep him. But most guys are just guys, Anzalone included.

Seconding the motion of "make him a reasonable offer, but don't overdo it."

What do we imagine the WR room to look like as we break camp?

WR1 Amon-Ra St. Brown is the build-around guy for the whole offense, sold.

WR2 Jameson Williams is the "ceiling" guy who's still seemingly close to rookie status, unknown but you'd hope that he develops into at least a serious downfield threat this season, maybe/hopefully more.

WR4 is Kalif Raymond, your sparkplug super speed tiny size guy with limitations but he's effective at the things he can do. Not a candidate for 40 snaps a game, I think, but he can give you 20 good snaps.

...and WR3 Josh Reynolds is solid at multiple things, not spectacular at any among them, but comfortable with Goff and seems like a good fit. I list him below Raymond here as I think his hold for a roster slot seems less secure, but if he stays his usage should be more central.


Last year a one year deal with DJ Chark suggested he could be the downfield threat on a use-every-so-often basis, but this offense or Goff doesn't seem to have the nerve to really Minshew the ball his way as much as I might like. I can't see him getting $10m again, and I guess I can't see him coming back... but we can sort out whether we feel he's a target to retain.

WR5/6 Quintez Cephus is, I suppose, what you get from a technically sound player who just doesn't have NFL grade physical tools. He runs patterns and does the job, but he lacks speed/quickness to separate, so it feels like everything is a contested catch for this guy. Low ceiling, as much as I like him.


If the default play here is to keep everyone listed above including Reynolds, not re-sign Chark, pray that Williams is ready to step up as the downfield guy... then I'd say you're basically one legit body short of an honest NFL WR corps. Not necessarily a big dollar guy, but maybe someone to complement Reynolds in that floater role, big enough to play outside while Amon-Ra stays in the slot.

What do we think Devante Parker is going to want in a new deal? He's the sort of guy I have in mind here, maybe. Is he now a $6m guy?

What about Mack Hollins (can play special teams, can run a respectable go-get-it deep route, can sport a sweet 'fro) for presumably a fraction of that?

Ju Ju Smith-Schuster is somehow still only 26 years old. And he showed in KC that he can put up good numbers as a non-#1 WR.

As a 2/3 with Williams, he could be a very good addition. Not sure what his market will be, though. He's not an under the radar guy.

dola: Jarvis Landry was injured last season, and when he was healthy, his QBs were Jameis and Andy Dalton. So his bad numbers were not entirely his fault.

He might have one year left in the tank (30 years old--another guy younger than it feels like he should be). He's a great candidate for a cheap prove-it deal with lots of incentives.

I think Quik's take on the WRs is good. On paper it kind of seems like a strength, but in reality everything after Amon-Ra is questionable. Jameson Williams absolutely should be the #2 guy, but he caught all of one ball last year & there's a handful of guys you could pencil in at #3 WR....but you could just as easily pen every one of them in at #6.

I kind of lump Chark in with Anzalone & would offer them below-market deals to test how far Campbell's appeal extends.

…PFF shows Raymond w 555 snaps. Even if that includes a full special teams load, that’s still more than I would have guessed. Do they use him as an F in a 4-wide regularly? (I’d assume so, for that tally)

Raymond has done a little bit of everything for the Lions & has been relatively bullet-proof, so I think he picked up a lot of those extra snaps in unexpected relief duty all over the field.

Jamal Williams' free agency is another interesting question. On paper bringing him back seems like a no-brainer, if Anzalone has been the heart of the defense than Williams has operated as the heart of the offense, even though he was brought in to serve as a backup & he ended the season as a top performing RB. He has practically said he'd give the Lions friendly rates to return...but what are friendly rates for someone who just ran for 1000 yards and 17 TDs? Even at friendly rates I think he can probably demand at least starter money from the Lions on the back of those stats, but do the Lions actually want to run Williams as their starter or pay him starter to money to play backup to Swift/TBD?

Williams value as starter seems almost the opposite of what he offers as a backup. He's not a true home-run threat and probably needs a third down/long distance threat when considering him as a starter, whereas he seems like a plus for a backup in all those same situations. He also seems to bring some flavor and leadership to the locker room that can't necessarily be easily replaced. What do you do with him?

Jamal is a legit 3 down back and his pass pro is among the best in the league. All you miss with him is the home run, but he is durable, has good vision between tackles and will always fall forward after contact. Find a good change of pace option, whether that be Swift or someone else and make Williams you bell cow. He is Derrick Henry like, without Henry's top end speed. Plus, what he brings to the locker room is invaluable.

Pass protection is something I didn't consider. Good point. I can't/won't argue with anything you said.

Solid case to just run it back at RB, to me. Seems totally unlikely that Jamal would prefer another spot, he'd likely take a reasonable deal.

After Anzalone and Williams I don't think there's a whole lot of questions about the Lions own class of free agents. I personally like nose tackle Isaiah Buggs, big dude who flashed a little bit late season & who lots of other Lions defenders have praised for his locker-room presence. I don't think he's earned anything other than a solid backup contract, but I'd be happy to let literally every other Lions free agent other than the three named above (and maybe Chark as I posted upthread?) walk without even an offer.

That looks like a $7m savings (and $7m dead cap hit). Not a huge amount to free up, but if it gets us a re-signed happy Jamaal Williams and maybe a usable ILB, I'm game for that swap.

Would/should the Lions make a play for just released Bobby Wagner?

...kinda like that for a young team like this. Brockers' leadership goes, Wagner fills two roles that way, right?

I really love the idea of bringing in a veteran linebacker to be the leader and wear the green dot. The UFA linebacker class was loaded before Wagner was released. I think this would be a great way to spend some of that cap space. The core of the defense is still very young and bringing in a Wagner or Lavonte David seems like a perfect fit at the moment.

I love the idea too, it's a black hole of a position that the Lions have never filled adequately in recent memory, though not for a lack of trying (hello Jarrad Davis X2).

I'm interested to see if any kind of big FA play is in Brad Holmes blood. First offseason they did almost nothing in FA (outside of the Stafford trade of course) which made sense for a foundational rebuild, the aforementioned Williams and Anzalone were probably Holmes' biggest scores, but they were hardly big ticket items at the time. I totally expected the Lions to make some significant FA moves last year, but Holmes may have done even less in FA last year. Of course that all looks super shrewd in hindsight, building a winning record out of misfit toys on one-or-two year deals & clearing out tons of cap space for a future that is now...but it still seems like we have little clue whether Brad Holmes' FA frugality is a temporary, rebuilding strategy or some kind of core belief.

I don't understand the details as well as many of you, so let me approach this from an ownership perspective and ask: what is the goal we're shooting for with this team?

After reading this:


I come to some conclusions:

1. The bar's probably pretty low for actually making the playoffs since we can have the reasonable expectation that the other 3 teams in the division are going to have tough years. So, ambitions need to be set higher than that.

2. If Goff and the offense can at least replicate last year, they'll be a) able to win games on their own and b) hold up their end of the bargain in the playoffs. However, they're not going to be the type of unit that drags the team through the playoffs to the Super Bowl.

Which means:

3. The defense needs a serious, serious upgrade.


So, a strategic question to me is: to what extent can they upgrade the defense and is it enough to get past the first round for the first time in 21 years and if so is that their short-term goal? Or, could they aim even higher in a NFC lacking elite QBs and get that defensive unit even better than the offensive unit and make a good shot at making the Super Bowl?

Put more simply: is the goal here incremental improvements with success being winning a playoff round, or is there an opportunity to go all-in for a shot at the title?

Fair framing, there.

I'd say that the goal, in my mind, would feel more like:

-this year make the playoffs "with a shot"
-build so that playoff expectations are routine for years ahead
-hope that enough magic dust lands out way that we're a top threat

The Lions have spent arguable my entire football life playing for second place behind Favre or Rodgers & I'm not certain Lions fans know how to consider the division any other way at this point. Will take some adjustment.

What if you called the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and offered the number six pick for Devin White? Or even pick 6/18 for pick 19 and White. He is looking to get paid, but he would be a sure thing stud in the middle of that defense.

I think the deep-data view of Devin White is less flattering than the surface level view. He is fast as hell and is around the play a lot, makes a lot of big plays, etc. But the guys at PFF watching every play, not just splash ones, seem to find him as the emblem of a certain type of player who is overrated hy the highlight reel and sack/tackle numbers. As in, he misses assignments, jumps coverage, takes chances, and so forth in the pursuit of big plays but fairly often at the cost of leaving someone wide open or leaving a gap uncovered in the run stop scheme.

Lavonte David, maybe a fit for this team, he's the sound LB from that roster (albeit in his last phase). But I think I'd rather let someone else give White a Bud Dupree type contract.

According to the desert experts, Lions are fifth mathematically to make it to the Super Bowl.

That being said, I want nothing to do with Jalen Ramsey at the ridiculous cost of trading for him and backing up the dump truck to pay him. Seems like the type of thing that just undermines the progress Holmes has made the last few years.

The rumors of trading for Josh Allen though have me excited. No. Not that Josh, the other one who plays defense.

I feel like the window is now. Windows can open and close pretty quickly in the NFL and given how the Lions ended the season, the lack of QB talent in the conference and the state of the division, it's sort of a... Why not us? Other than Philly and San Francisco, I don't feel like there are any other teams in the NFC that the Lions couldn't, at least, really compete with.

Given how young the core of the team is, we want to build this thing for sustained success, but I think we start trying to create a roster that has a shot of winning the division and making some noise on the playoffs.


Yeah, I agree with Jalen Ramsey. He would fill a huge, huge need, but given his age and the amount of draft capital and then cap space it would take to acquire him, it feels like it's just too much. It cuts against the notion of trying to make some noise this year, but it doesn't feel like it sets the team up for long term success.

I haven't heard about this Josh Allen rumor, but it intrigues...

Agreed.

The last time the Lions had talent at the LB position was when the Lions added Justin Durant and Stephen Tulloch back in 2011. That was a long, long time ago.

Holmes has had shown no appetite (or aptitude?) with respect to free agency so far. In some ways, I understand why. The Lions have not been in a position where a big free agent signing was really going to move the needle. Quinntricia left the cupboard so incredibly bare, that it didn't make sense to spend money on a guy who, in all likelihood, would be cut by the time the team was competitive.

Since I am Hockey Boy, I will make the comparison to the Red Wings and the Yzerplan. The Red Wings have been awful for a long time now. When Yzerman became the GM for the Wings in 2019, the team was in shambles. He barely made any free agent signings and the ones he did were almost all one or two year deals. He was dedicated to building through the draft, which, admittedly, takes a lot, lot longer in the NHL and making trades to acquire players with potential. It wasn't until last summer, that he finally pulled the trigger on a few big ticket free agent signings. He felt like the team was finally in a position to potentially compete for a playoff spot.

I am hoping that Holmes is doing something similar. He saw the progress during the back half of the year by the young players. He sees the division as ripe for the taking and sees the NFC as a conference of parity - as we do - and figures it's time to strike while the iron is hot and add some veteran pieces to take this thing to the next level.

So, you've answered my either/or question by taking both sides of the "or". Does this mean that you can both take a shot at the title, and also build for long-term success at the same time, in the context of this team, right now? Actual question, not rhetorical question.

Because it feels to me like signing Ramsey would be a key part of taking the shot now, even if it's not a longer-term decision. And I would assume you could spend a lot more "problemmatic in a few years" money on other defensive stars to take that shot now with a higher probability than being careful to sign quality up-and-comers on defense that will incrementally take you to the next level, but probably still make a shot at the SB next year an outside chance.

Considering the need at the position, I think I'd be willing to trade the 18th pick for Ramsey.

I am slightly leaning toward the "the NFC is wide open" way of thinking, and making a win-now move like that is worth it.

If you combine that with trading down from #6 (depending on how the QBs fall) to maybe gain another second rounder, I think that you can balance young players with blue chippers.

dola: If they ask for more than the #18 pick, then I'm out.

double dola:

I like the idea of grabbing a #1 CB or a #1 WR because it can have trickle down effects on your roster. By pushing everyone down the depth chart, you improve at positions 2-4 as well. It may not turn a weakness into a strength, but it can turn a weakness into "OK, we don't need to worry about this" with just one move.

If we were after a "go for it" veteran, do we prefer CB Ramsey over WR Hopkins? I think I do, but that seems like a threshold question, even before adjusting for market price, cap hit, etc.

Why not both?

Before I brought in an alpha WR, I'd be very very confident that he and my other alpha WR (St. Brown) will get along.

The last thing you want on this culture-based team is a WR after a win talking about how he only got 2 targets and something need to change, etc. etc.

Okay, so... let's broaden this a bit. Among the "impact free agents" this year, there are a few other guys who might fit the bill as "go for it" moves on a team that feels like it's entering a window.

S Jessie Bates, Jordan Poyer, or Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
DT Javon Hargrave or Daron Payne
CB Jamel Dean or James Bradberry
DL DreMont Jones, Marcus Devenport, Yannick Ngakoue or Dalvin Tomlinson

So if we're talking about a trade-for-big-contract guy we also should be talking about just the sign-to-big-contract guys as well.

I can give insight into two former (or soon to be former) Saints

Marcus Davenport has all of the physical tools you want and then some. Apparently, when he is motivated, he's the most impactful player on the team, and it isn't even close.

But, reading between the lines, he simply does not love football. Motivation is a consistent problem. And he's always got some sort of nagging injury (the coming back from which is also related to lack of love of the game, I'd suspect).

I see him as signing a decent FA contract this season, underperforming, getting cut, retiring from football. And then living out his days happily as a high school English teacher or something like that.

All of which is to say I wouldn't touch him. I don't think that even the knee-biter can keep him motivated.


Chauncy Gardner-Johnson can play safety or slot corner. The Saints let him go b/c he wanted top corner money, and the Saints wanted to pay him safety money. So they got what they could for him in a trade.

Now, the market will decide what he is worth. And if the money is right, I think he could be a great fit for the Lions as just an all-purpose defensive back and not worry too much about whether he is a safety or a corner. He can blitz. He's not afraid to get up and do run support. And he can jam with the best of them. His attitude fits this team, and he's got a lot of talent.

This is a great list.

I particularly like Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. especially after reading albion's take, and Javon Hargrave (Daron Payne has been franchised). I am not sure if the Lions could afford those two and Lavonte David (likely not), but that would be a huge injection of veteran talent for the team and give the Lions more flexibility in the draft.

Stafford took the Rams to the Super Bowl. Goff did the same. According to my metric, Goff had the largest jump from 2021 to 2022 in the NFL. So you probably can't expect him to be as effective in 2023 as he was in 2022. The 2022 version could have won.

I agree that the key for the Lions is getting a couple of impact players on defense.

This is a team that was operating at a playoff level, a threat to get that second playoff victory in the last 65 seasons, at the end of the year.

However, I'd caution that teams picking up six wins from the previous season generally regress. While the defense didn't remain on the path of "worst in the history of the NFL" as the season progressed, they did lead the NFL in total yardage allowed.

As noted, the division is wide open. Minnesota has to be the worst 13-win team ever, Green Bay was uncharacteristically bad on offense and the Bears are awful. They should take a shot now. Start with a run-stopper and build up that secondary depth.

The Athletic Football show is doing a thing where Robert Mays is at the combine interviewing beat reporters for various teams. He talked to the guy for the Lions (50:00 minute mark of whichever podcast is was--2 or 3 day ago).

Our thoughts in this thread match up to what the local guy thought--the biggest needs are CB and DL. Though WR (or playmaking TE) is kind of a sneaky need b/c you need someone to be the 3rd receiving threat on offense.

Mays also made the best argument I heard in favor of drafting a QB early. Basically, you start with the assumption that Goff is good but not great. The sort of guy you can win with but not win because of. And he's good enough to make the playoffs with a good team, but isn't going to get you over the hump. OK, I can buy that.

Then you think that in a few years, the Lions may look around after a couple of short playoff trips and think they need an upgrade.

And if you can see that coming--why not try to head it off and draft a guy while you have the #6 pick and the ability to draft there or even trade up from there to get the guy you want? If things go according to plan, you will be picking in the mid-20s going forward, so you won't have the opportunity to grab the QB when it is apparent you need him. You need to do it now.

He was high on Anthony Richardson for the Lions because he is so raw, but with Goff entrenched, he won't be expected to start for a year or two. And considering his upside, he could turn into a special player.

Personally, I am still more in favor of picking a guy mid-round and hoping you hit a lottery ticket there. This is not a situation where the Lions have the #1 pick and Andrew Luck is out there. The #6 pick gets you maybe the 3rd or 4th QB off the board in a QB class that isn't a disaster like last year, but that certainly does not have people super excited. I don't know that the guy you pick at #6 is much more likely to hit than the guy you pick in the 3rd round.

But it was a pretty good argument, and I would completely understand if the Lions decided that one of these QBs was special, and if he's there at #6, don't overthink it. Just draft him and let Goff leave in a year or two.

dola: They also mentioned how the Lions are basically grooming their passing game coordinator (forget his name) to take over as OC when their OC gets the likely head coaching gig coming his way.

That's good team management. If you can see the writing on the wall, start preparing for it now.

I like this team.

Yeah, did the Lions suddenly replace their front office with competent people when I wasn't looking? They aren't acting like the Bears the poorly-run organization I've known all my life.

I get that Richardson is the "It Girl" (ancient reference, no offense intended) right now and is likely to be a high first-round pick. I look at his stats at Florida and see nothing, but his name has been coming up so much lately that there has to be something behind it.

Career, though, 54.7% completions, 24/15 ratio on 393 career passing attempts. Runs well. Not a Hurts/Lance/Fields type where that's his first thought, but he's elusive and fast. Perfect size for the position. Strong arm.

It's all projection, though. I read articles years ago that suggested the one stat from college that evaluators found most useful was number of starts against power-five opponents. So maybe if Richardson hadn't declared early, you'd see Heisman-level performance in 2023.

Do you bank a franchise on that? He needs to play, not watch.

Here's a list of drafted quarterbacks with less than 400 career passing attempts at power-five universities since 1998:

2016: Cardale Jones (4th round)
2011: Cam Newton (1st overall)
2004: Adrian McPherson (5th round)
2004: Matt Cassel (7th round)
2003: Drew Henson (6th round)
2003: Gibran Hamdan (7th round)
2002: Randy Fasani (5th round)
2001: A.J. Feeley (5th round)
2001: Michael Vick (1st overall)

Trey Lance (3rd overall, 2021) had less than 400 career attempts at an FCS school.

So this isn't unprecedented by any means. In fact, while Lance and Newton played extremely well in college, Vick's college numbers look a lot like Richardson's.

Someone's going to invest in Richardson. High risk, high potential reward. If you think you're close to winning now, though, seems like a bad idea to use a top pick on someone who won't contribute as a rookie.

Iowa's Jack Campbell is a middle linebacker NFL scouts destined to love

This guy's having a great combine, so he might end up going pretty high, but this writeup makes him feel really Detroit Lionish. And his RAS score is super high--so he's got the talent. He's not just a white Midwestern tryhard. He's a white Midwestern tryhard who can play

Maybe grab him at 48 or 55 and stick him next to Rodriguez, and you've got 2 young athletic ILBs on rookie deals. You don't even have to think about the position for 3 years.

Using pick 16 on Richardson, the shoot-the-moon QB prospect, felt like it made sense to me the first time I heard it. I have seen him climbing up mock drafts, ahead of Stroud, even, and well ahead of 16. I don't like using pick 6 on him, I don't think.

What if Stroud "falls" past the 7-8-9 band of supposedly QB-hungry teams? Any interest in a Jameson-like move up to take advantage of the "last guy to fit a specific team need" like last year?

I love the idea of an athletic linebacker named Jack Campbell. Yes, please!

I think we need an opinion from our resident Iowa expert.

Couple things.

Jack Campbell seems like hes already wearing Honolulu Blue.
Want NOTHING to do with QB Richardson.

Id like Det to trade down from 6 to 9 with Carolina giving us an extra 3rd rounder (dont care this year or next) and still get one of the top CBs. Panthers can take that QB risk.

Use that 3rd or 4th rounder to take Hooker as a developmental qb

NFL Mock Draft 2023: New QB Goes No. 1

semi-reputable outlet releases new mock draft with QB Richardson going 1.1 WTAF

His rise (or at least the perception of it) has been amazing to watch.

In, like, two weeks, I've gone from seeing people on the Saints message boards suggesting that they could draft him at 1.29 and everyone shouting them down because that's way too early to some mocks now putting him at 1.1 and everyone agreeing that he's probably not getting out of the top 6.

Its preposterous

At best hes a rich mans DTR but 2 1/2 inches taller with 20% less accuracy and nothing but green bars.

HARD pass.

Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - NFL 2022-23 Season Thread

I think NFL GMs probably would have ended up there anyway, but Mahomes and especially Allen I think have broken the risk/reward calculation on potential top 5 QB's. If you don't find one of those guys when you have a chance, you probably aren't sticking around a team drafting in the top 10 very long.

Speaking of LB, Noah Sewell has tested pretty well at the combine. Lots of smoke linking him to the Lions for obvious reasons.

DOLA - I don't think Hooker is lasting to the 3rd or 4th either, not even close. Jeremiah's rankings are always a little... contrarian but I'm pretty sure I just saw he's his #2 QB. He'll get somebody trading back into the late first or at the very least the start of day 2 for him.

I can't quite get a handle on why these things change so much after players declare for the draft or finish their senior seasons.

Perhaps it's that they're free to talk to agents and agents can contact evaluators. What's becoming clear is that quarterbacks drafted after the first round are less likely to eventually become starters than ten years ago.

Bad news for the 2022 crop and teams that look forced to go with younger quarterbacks who didn't go in the first round.

Life is getting more and more complex for quarterbacks and I can't state enough that it's a copycat league. When I see someone as unaccomplished as Daniel Jones cheered in the media as "breaking out" for a decent, but fairly average season, I worry that perhaps copycat has become a parody of itself. Now Jones wants more than $45 million, allegedly. Could be a "screw you, Giants, we'll make you pay for declining the option" and there's no market above $25 million. But I suspect there's something there since so many teams need quarterbacks.

It's enough that I think the Lions, who have a guy with plus talent whose problem seemed to be maturity. He's now 28, has Super Bowl experience and did extremely well last season... they shouldn't even think new quarterback while this works itself out.

2023 NFL Mock Draft | Fanspeak On The Clock Simulator

TEAM PICKS
6: R1 P6 CB Christian Gonzalez - Oregon
18: R1 P18 RB Bijan Robinson - Texas
48: R2 P17 TE Luke Musgrave - Oregon State
55: R2 P24 DL Karl Brooks - Bowling Green
81: R3 P18 LB DeMarvion Overshown - Texas
154: R5 P18 WR Ronnie Bell - Michigan
183: R6 P6 G Jaylon Thomas - SMU
194: R6 P17 S Quindell Johnson - Memphis

...'tis the season. The back end is very, very thin. I do not actually want to draft a RB for this team, but Bijan at 16 gave me a little tingle and that was worth it.

6: R1 P6 CB Christian Gonzalez - Oregon
18: R1 P18 DL Calijah Kancey - Pittsburgh
48: R2 P17 G Steve Avila - TCU
55: R2 P24 QB Hendon Hooker - Tennessee
81: R3 P18 LB DeMarvion Overshown - Texas
154: R5 P18 WR Zakhari Franklin - UTSA
183: R6 P6 LB Dee Winters - TCU
194: R6 P17 TE Cameron Latu - Alabama

...feels closer. And I want to trade down from 1.6, this engine doesn't allow trades so I'm just taking my best fit guy there.

I started Tyree Wilson and then Gonzalez dropped to 17 but I took Ringo instead at the next pick… I agree that there’s not really value at 6 and hopefully one of the QBs drops there and you get somebody like the Panthers moving up…

Hooker was available for me too in the 3rd, that’s a no brainer IMO but just doesn’t seem likely to me he’s there that long. If you picked up another second for trading down for #9, I think I would take that shot in the second round every day.

If Bijan Robinson is there at 18, he’s too good a talent to pass up. I think RB is more of a need than it may appear. It looks like the Lions may bring back Jamal Williams aka “ Swag kazekage, leader of the hidden village of the den”, but given how limited Swift has been with injuries, Robinson would really help the Lions offense do what it wants to do - run the ball effectively and play action passing.

I don’t love a corner at six, but it’s a huge need and mocks seem to fall that way in terms of what’s available.

I did a 4-round draft at 2023 NFL Mock Draft Simulator With Free Trades - Pro Football Network with no trades, and basically "no nonsense" (ignoring guys who seemed to be absurdly undervalued)...and this looks pretty close to a solid baseline to me:

1.06 EDGE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
1.18 CB Cam Smith, South Carolina
2.17 TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
3rd LB Jack Campbell, Iowa
3rd G Steve Avlia, TCU

In my mind, that's your basic by-the-book draft for the Lions, especially if we assume they bring in someone beefy for the DL via free agency (which feels like the main priority not tended to with these early picks).

#NorthStar

Detroit head coach Dan Campbell says: #Lions grade players off the tape, not running 40s at the Combine in pajamas. pic.twitter.com/PPgi6bqvw7

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) March 1, 2023

Just for the sake of discussion, what trade value does Jared Goff have?

Hmmm, I'd imagine fairly little. Let's assume that he is seen as roughly as attractive a starting option, globally, as Jimmy Garoppolo. Seems about right, to me.

Right now all the QB oxygen is being taken up by Carr openly dancing for strangers, Rodgers mulling his options in darkness, and... basically that's it. Nobody is talking about Jimmy G, he's likely just reserved for the teams that don't land/sign a big fish, but who think of themselves as legit contenders, like maybe the Buccs, Commanders, Saints, Jets, Raiders? So one of those team likely wends itself into being okay with 2/40 for Jimmy G?

Goff counts as 2/63 under the contract you'd assume with a trade. Last year base not guaranteed, which is good. But still not easy-to-swallow terms, I wouldn't think.

So... maybe a middling pick, I'd guess. Maybe you get a 3rd for him from a teal disappointed they lost out in the big stakes race, then also missed out on Jimmy G?

The problem with trading for an established quarterback is that you're going to have to give him a new contract soon enough, almost certainly after his first season.

So if it pays off, you're paying a premium price. If it doesn't, you're looking for a quarterback again. I think that's why we're seeing this relatively new trend of established quarterbacks switching teams. It almost never used to happen.

He should be worth much more than a mid-round pick, but that's just not how things work these days.

Right now, it's a waiting game. Lots of posturing, planning. Franchise deadline is Tuesday afternoon. Free agency begins the following Wednesday. Until that bidding begins for Garoppolo, Carr and the players who aren't franchised, the market won't take shape.

I think it will be beyond crazy. So many teams don't even have a quarterback right now.

Here’s my 7 round with trades on… I think the trades aren’t realistic and some of the player values are screwy, but I certainly love these results

1.14 CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia
1.26 EDGE Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
2.46 TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
2.48 QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
2.55 S Christopher Smith, Georgia
2.58 OG Jarrett Patterson, Notre Dame
3.81 LB Jack Campbell, Iowa
4.117 LB Daiyan Henley, Washington State
5.154 DT Zacch Pickens, South Carolina
6.183 S Jalen Greene, Mississippi State
6.194 RB Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State

2024 NE 1st

Clearly way too much value coming back in trade, but I like the value pretty much everywhere. Van Ness and Hutchinson could develop the be an absolute nightmare. Guys like Ringo, Kincaid and Campbell just seem to belong playing for this coaching staff. Hooker is a roll of the dice on a developmental guy who can sit behind Goff for a year or two. And Henley might be my favorite player in the draft - I’d put good money on him becoming an all pro. I think this would turn the future of the LB position in Detroit around in a hurry.

The reason I ask is what if, just what if, a QB highly rated by the Lions slips to the number six pick. Do the Lions pounce on it? And if so then you have to see what value you can get from Goff.

Even if a guy falls to you who you think is the QB of the future, I still think you keep Goff. You turn it into an Alex Smith/Patrick Mahomes situation. Golff’s contract will also be tradable next year. None of these quarterbacks in the draft seem like guys you would want to stick on a playoff team and assume that they can lead you there as rookies.

I suspect that when the Carr contract numbers come out, Goff at $30 will look like even more of a great deal for the Lions.

dola: More evidence that the Lions QB situation is right where they want it.

So, $37.5 million per year. Not bad. Reasonably priced.

Derek Carr -- $37.5 million
Kirk Cousins -- $35 million
Jared Goff -- $33.5 million
Ryan Tannehill -- $29.5 million https://t.co/KSVHcUhLWg

— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) March 6, 2023

double dola:

The big question is going to be how those QBs fall. It feels like Indy will trade to #1 and take one. Houston will take one at #2. Arizona probably not. Bears won't at #4. Seattle probably not. So the question is whether a team will trade up to grab one before #6.

My guess is that at least one of the big four will be there at #6, which will hopefully let us snag something in a trade down.

If the Bears trade down to #4, why wouldn't they trade down again? It'll take a couple of weeks to digest the combine, plus the initial volley of free agency. They need so many pieces they could go in several directions.

I wouldn't count on any of the big four quarterbacks getting past #4 even. It's that kind of league right now.

They could but I think a lot of evaluators a saying that, besides QB, there are two real difference makers in Anderson and Carter. If you're the Bears, you traded down to get assets but still got one of the top-two players. win-win

Eric Kendricks?

+1 get Anderson or deal down if you can

There was a guy on the Lions subreddit, Bo_77, who has done a bunch of great, knowledgeable write-ups on Lions off-season moves (position evaluations, scouting potential selections, etc.). Welp, he moved off reddit to substack here: https://motorcityfootball.substack.com/ Good info and opinions there if you want to dig a little deeper into Lions.

2023 NFL Mock Draft 4.0: Post-Combine Picks For First Three Rounds | The 33rd Team

Great mock for Detroit. Trade down 3 spots in first to move up 40 spots in 2nd/3rd. Still end up with a top corner.

Seems very realistic at this point.

edit--just noticed that they had them getting RB Robinson at 18. Which, I get that he's a great player. But that's not a first round need for this team at this point.

Thanks for that link... will dig in.

I'll also pimp my favorite analyst from the Pride of Detroit site, Andrew Kato:
Andrew Kato Profile and Activity - Pride Of Detroit

...he doesn't post a ton, but for some reason he resonates with me when he does post over there.

OK, fiddling with a mock draft as I have some soft time at the keyboard.

DET sits on two firsts and two seconds...just great for this sort of navel-gazing. I find myself always taking a CB with one of the firsts, and then with the second generally a best value sort of pick, usually at DT (Bresee or possibly Cancey). The WR group tends to be among the "top available" guys but I haven't really dug into anyone beyond JSN who is a bad fit for the Lions, as he mostly maps onto the super-slot role they are using St. Brown for.

I'm also frustrated by the wide variation in player rankings...it's inevitable, but feels more worrisome this year than last. On the PFN site we can get speedy Pitt DT Cancey in round three, elsewhere he's top-40. That LB Jack Campbell is all over the place across sites. I don't like gaming the site (knowing certain guys will be unreaslistically late pickups).

I have been getting a TE in round two, usually - this draft feels loaded with them.

So, starting out something like CB-DT-TE-LB has a good feel, to me.

I also have the CBs rated, for Detroit:

Gonzalez
Witherspoon
(gap)
Porter
(gap)
Smith
Forbes

Appears the cost for Ramsey was lower than we had guessed in terms of draft capital, but higher in terms of guaranteed salary. I don't love a player who is doing the opposite of "betting on himself" tbh.

Honestly, I would have liked grabbing Ramsey. Several of the podcasts I listen to say that his game will age well.

But I'm not losing sleep over missing out on an expensive older DB. That could end up being an albatross contract 4 games into next season if Father Time hits Ramsey wrong.

I still want to make a move of some sort, though. We've got all this draft capital and the veteran QB in place. Whatever window we have seems to be open now. I want to--prudently--convert some of that draft capital into a name player.

I know someone touted a cheap re-up with DT Buggs here... looks like he got a 2y deal just before the FA deadline. Incentives up to a total of $6m. Don't hate it.

Lions To Sign CB Cameron Sutton
March 13th, 2023 at 12:33pm CST by Sam Robinson
Ending last season with the NFL’s worst-ranked defense, the Lions are adding one of the top cornerbacks available. They are picking up former Steelers corner Cameron Sutton, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets.

Sutton, who has spent his entire career in Pittsburgh, will head to Detroit on a three-year, $33MM deal featuring $22.5MM guaranteed. Sutton, 27, profiled as one of the top cover men available. He will be a centerpiece player for Aaron Glenn’s defense in 2023.

A former third-round pick, Sutton will do far better on his third NFL contract compared to his second. He just finished out a two-year, $9MM deal — agreed to just prior to free agency in 2021. The Steelers received quality work from Sutton last season; he was by far their most dependable corner. The seventh-year veteran will attempt to fill a void on the outside in Detroit, though Sutton also brings extensive slot experience as well. That will give Glenn options as he attempts to pick up the pieces ahead of his third season as DC.

Sutton finished in the top five in passer rating allowed as the closest defender, per Next Gen Stats, last season (among corners) and ended the year with a career-high 15 passes defensed. The Lions ranked 30th in pass defense and have not been able to rely on Bob Quinn-era draftee Jeff Okudah just yet.

PFF has graded Sutton as over 70 in overall defense and pass coverage in 3 of the last 4 years (with 2021 being his weak season).

I had thought Jamel Dean was the guy to target in this price range - a little younger, a little larger, and a little better overall. We'll see how much he gets money-wise, maybe it will turn out to be a couple clicks more than Sutton.