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This is well put.
Richard Cohen - The Ugly New McCain - washingtonpost.com Quote:
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Yes, it was discussed early on in the primaries, but went away as he pulled ahead of Clinton. Now that his polling lead has disappeared, the 'R' word has emerged again. Also, the writer implies that there's no other explanation for why Obama isn't way ahead at this point. That's a pretty hefty assumption. |
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I this crap silly. Like I said before, race is a factor, but it isn't that large of one... the proof? Look at how the polls have been moving for McCain. Recall that during the DNC, Obama had about an 8 to 9 pt lead. Are these people saying that some of those people magically became racists? |
Seems the motivated group over at 4Chan was able to hack into Sarah Palin's personal Yahoo! account. Info is available via teh google.
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stepping down or not is small potatoes to me. If it means a cleaner result, no matter the result, than fine, he should go but she should cooperate with the investigation like she said she would. |
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This kind of stuff is going to only cause more of a backlash. Not sure why they would even consider this to be a good idea. |
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During the democratic primaries, I remember several discussions amongst some pollsters about a "hidden racism" factor -- something to the effect that a certain percentage of people would tell a pollster that they would be voting for Obama (because they wanted to "seem" to be open minded), but in the privacy of the voting booth they voted for Clinton. It remains to be seen if this will show up in the general election, but given the closeness of the polls, even a small occurance of this could be very significant in how accurate the final polls are in predicting the actual outcome of the election. |
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in anything, anything, there is fatigue so if the right (or left) goes to the well too often the ROI will get smaller and smaller until that return goes negative. |
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That's basically the so-called "Bradley Effect". However, recent studies seem to show that the Bradley Effect isn't a statistically relevant issue this year. I think race will play an issue, but as I've argued before the effects will be much more subtle. I don't think conscious racism is going to make the difference anywhere. |
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whoa - yeah...very well put. even moreso because it was coming a self-professed former media-backer. |
Harold Ford actually performed better than the final poll numbers in the 2006 TN senate race, suggesting the Bradley effect may no longer be in place. But I think we'll need to wait and see before letting one election determine that.
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Stakes high in Palin trooper probe - CNN.com
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That's good. McCain is a shadow of his former self. I don't even understand what McCain's stance is on the most recent economic failures. McCain and Palin say we need more regulation one minute and deregulation the next. Obama has retaken the lead and what a difference a week makes. |
rolling average.
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I'm not sure how that is so well put. Talking about the Lipstick ad and the sex education for kindergarteners ad: Question: "Wow, those two ads are untrue. They are lies." Answer: "Actually, they are not lies." Response: "Actually, they are." Are the ads lies? They might be misleading...Obama called for age-appropriate sex education of students in K-12, so how is sex education for K a lie? Someone upthread mentioned that the word "lie" is thrown around way too much, and I am inclined to agree. |
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That's okay, it will change next week when Obama flips on one of his key messages again. Seriously, have there ever been two campaigns botched this badly in a single presidential election cycle? Or this much flipping by everybody in this short a period of time? |
Given Palin appointed Monigan and his role was simply to serve a post "at the pleasure of the governor", couldn't Palin have relieved him from his post one morning because she didn't like the color of his tie? While I certainly see the argument for her not handling all these things in a professional manner, I don't really see a crime (which would be the point in an investigation, correct?).
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There's a difference between how state governments work and the federal government, so it depends on Alaska state law, which she may or may not have violated, hence the investigation. For example, there was a battle between Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue and Attorney General Thurbert Baker over a Supreme Court redistricting case. Perdue wanted to drop the case that was initiated under his predecessor, but Baker was able to continue arguing it because the AG is independent from the Governor. Obviously the same thing would not have happened at the federal level. |
Actually this would fall under an ethics violation rather then a "Crime" so to speak.
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I don't know. A week or two ago we were talking about the doom of the Obama campaign and all the mistakes they were making. Now it's McCain making a gaffe, Fiorina getting banished, apparently McCain invented the blackberry, and we're back where we were a month ago. 538 still has McCain up but there haven't been any state polls today except ARG but ARG sucks. I think CNN will be out with some new ones later today. |
And here are the CNN polls:
Florida: Obama 48, McCain 48 Indiana: McCain 51, Obama 45 North Carolina: McCain 48, Obama 47 Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 47 Wisconsin: Obama 50, McCain 47 Not bad for Obama. I liked this Obama line today- "The old boys network? In the McCain campaign that's called a staff meeting." What a difference a week makes. |
nvm, beat to it.
The Wisconsin poll is not very good, but the rest of them are very nice for Obama. |
"Two years ago, I warned that the oversight of Fannie and Freddie was terrible, that we were facing a crisis because of it, or certainly a serious problem."
-- Sen. John McCain, in an interview earlier today, via ABC News. "So, I'd like to tell you that I did anticipate it, but I have to give you straight talk, I did not." -- McCain, in an interview with Keene Sentinel on the mortgage crisis in December 2007. McCain's straight talk is going in all sorts of different directions. |
Did anyone post the Fox News/Rasmussen poll numbers released yesterday? If not:
Pennsylvania: Obama 47, McCain 47 Ohio: McCain 48, Obama 45 Florida: McCain 49, Obama 44 Virginia: Obama 48, McCain 48 Colorado: McCain 48, Obama 46 |
Those are a couple days old. Vic mentioned them here.
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And those polls look good for McCain. One thing about the CNN polls is that they are for registered voters. I think rasmussen polls likely voters.
http://wiscadproject.wisc.edu/wiscad...ase_091708.pdf Here's a study of the money being spent by both campaigns for ads if you're interested. Both are putting a lot of cash into ads in Florida and McCain has spent the most for ads in Pennsylvania. Obama has barely spent any on ads in Minnesota. McCain has spent 0 in Montana, North Dakota, and Indiana. |
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I would expect many fairly knowledgeable financial people could see the issues with Fannie and Freddie, but need some 20-20 hindsight to know the full impact of the Greenspan rates and private mortgage risks. McCain was in that camp and actually being honest about it (not just taking credit like most politicians do). A few pages back I posted McCain's co-sponsored bill back in 2005 that was spiked by the senate democrats to add some oversight to Freddie and Fannie. One has to wonder why the senate democrats were so against the oversight legislation proposed by Hagel and McCain back in 2005 - especially if protecting against corruption was such a major concern. There were clear signs that steps needed to be taken: Quote:
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Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.
Oregon, Obama 51 McCain 47. Previous Rasmussen poll (8/07) Obama 47 McCain 37 Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. Wisconsin, Obama 48 McCain 46. Previous Rasmussen poll (08/05) Obama 47 McCain 43. (note the Wisconsin trends chart on the right has the newest numbers flipped it reads McCain 48 Obama 46 when it is the other way around) |
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The CNN/Time polls had Kerry consistently higher in 2004 than most of the other polls, but that might not be the case now. |
Democrats need not worry about Wisconsin. We'll cheat if we have to.
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All these polls tell me is that this election is far closer than it should be after the last 8 years, and that McCain is likely going to win when the dust settles. Couple that with a likely Harper victory up here and I'm pretty pessimistic about the next 4-5 years.
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I hope I'm not threadjacking with a question about the upcoming Canadian election, but I read somewhere that there's a chance the NDP could replace the Liberal party as the 2nd largest party (assuming the Conservatives win the election). Is it really that close between the NDP and the Liberals? |
CBS News/NY Times poll just released...
Registered Voters: Obama 48-43 Likely Voters: Obama 49-44 Obama now leads 47-45 among White Females, whereas he was behind 53-34 after the GOP convention. |
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Obama 51.0 McCain 48.6 |
Isn't it depresssing that even the (scientifically researched?) polls reflect the bias of their paymasters :rolleyes:
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Obama 39.J McCain -Y^4 |
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I have no idea what this means but it made me lol. |
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It's not "likely" that McCain is going to win, but being in a coin flip at this point is astonishing given that his party's two term incumbent president has the lowest approval rating in history. |
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I thought my video card was up the wall :) |
You forgot to add: Flasch186 --but then that would invalidate the whole list itself.
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I deleted the list because in actuality Mac's statement covers both sides. |
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I haven't seen any polls related to expected number of seats, but I'm positive the popular vote still favors the Liberals over the NDP by a significant margin. I'd also be extremely surprised if the NDP did win more seats, but as I haven't seen any polls, I suppose it could be working out that way. The Liberals are in disarray right now, and the NDP have a strong, well-known leader in Layton. So far the Canadian election has been flying somewhat under the radar, which is exactly what Harper wants. Although, I'm a little bit under-informed at the moment because I was too busy over the last week to really read the newspaper, and when that happens I tend to get all of my news from the internet sites I visit, which tend to be American. So I might be the wrong guy to ask right now. |
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As a number of my non-american friends have pointed out what this really shows is how many stupid Americans there are. Which I agree appears to be the case at this point. (No personal slight intended BTW) |
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Or how poorly the Democrats are running ANOTHER campaign. This should seriously have been a slam dunk, but when Obama keeps hemming and hawing on everything he said during the nomination campaign, it gets folks wondering if he really IS a change candidated and if he really CAN be trusted. I think his image is tarnishing fast, which is just sending folks back to the old standby of voting party. |
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I'm disappointed that your reaction was one of agreement, because I believe I would have told my non-American friends to go fuck themselves. |
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:lol: I would never dare say that :) A few years ago Australia held a referendum on whether it should become a republic (currently it still has constitutional links with Britain). One of the debating points was how the president would be elected. Part of the "anti" campaign was "there's no way we want anything like the US presidential election". It wasn't the only argument against but it certainly helped defeat the referendum. |
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there are a lot of stupid people in this country (on both sides) :+1: |
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A nice continuation of Bush's policies... :D |
GOP senator: A 'stretch' to say Palin is qualified - Yahoo! News
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see if I can parse through articles I post to highlight which side the argument might be for. It's at least a little more fun for me. |
that's pretty cool flaschy.
wow - won't say i'm "surprised" that the GOP senior-senators are turning on her, but that's...interesting at least |
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