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-   -   POTUS 2016 General Election Discussion Thread (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=91538)

JPhillips 11-05-2016 11:57 AM

I know it's unlikely that NV will actually be the state that wins it for Clinton, but the Harry Reid machine has been pretty damn impressive ever since 2008.

NobodyHere 11-05-2016 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney (Post 3127136)




stevew 11-05-2016 02:51 PM

Right wing media making far too much of a big deal over Jay Z dropping a few F bombs and N Words.

Brian Swartz 11-05-2016 02:53 PM

Looks like Trump's gains have definitely stalled at least the last day or two, which really should do it barring something quite unusual. Interestingly that isn't the case in the Senate where it's a virtual coin-flip right now; most likely scenario is a 50-50 split with Kaine breaking the tie as VP.

JonInMiddleGA 11-05-2016 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3127134)
Part of it is due to a less active board, but we also had more of a debate in 2008 because there were more people on McCain's side.


Don't underestimate the simple fatigue factor too.

miami_fan 11-05-2016 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA (Post 3127162)
Don't underestimate the simple fatigue factor too.


I would put this at the top of the list.

flere-imsaho 11-05-2016 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Young Drachma (Post 3127091)
There are just so many better ways to impact an election than voter fraud. Maybe for small, low-level elections it's a decent tactic to swing a few votes and it's surely more of an issue when it comes to ballot petitions where it's just signatures, but actual voting in elections? Meh, the juice isn't worth the squeeze especially for a big election.


This. If people actually sat back and thought it through, they'd realize how ridiculous these claims are, which is backed up by the fact that there's been no cases of widespread voter fraud.

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3127121)
Let's not get too carried away with "learning" from early voting turnout.


Exactly. Who remembers 2004? Of course that was more the exit polls showing a Kerry lead (as opposed to early voting), but still. It's not over until the Supreme Court picks a winner. :D

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3127128)
Just noticed the Obama vs McCain thread has more than twice the posts of this POTUS 2016. Wonder why but assume the changing demographics of this board.


Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney (Post 3127130)
The board isn't nearly as active as it was 8 year ago.


Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA (Post 3127162)
Don't underestimate the simple fatigue factor too.


All of this. Back in 2008 there were a number of us happy to go back-and-forth for pages on various topics. Some of those folks aren't here anymore. A lot of us are busier than we were then. And a lot of the arguments are simply played out. And this hasn't been an election about ideas, anyway (not that I thought 2008 was, at the time, but....)

Ben E Lou 11-05-2016 09:30 PM

Secret service removes Trump from a rally in Reno. Suspect tackled to the ground by SWAT and secret service. Unconfirmed reports that he had a gun.

EagleFan 11-05-2016 09:35 PM

Another Hillary sponsored attack. At least I assume that is how the media will spin it... they would be quick to assume that if the same thing happened with a Hillary event that it was a pro-Trump sanctioned attack so they MUST use the same logic when it is reversed...right...

(disclaimer: I hate them both and wouldn't waste a second being upset if both of them were eliminated as they are both worthless)

QuikSand 11-05-2016 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3127123)
Trump took a meaningful drop on PredictIt between Thursday and Saturday. He was up in the 33-36 range across a few parallel markets, but this morning is now selling at 28-29. That's a big move considering there wasn't really an accompanying "event" to speak of.

There were some Friday morning polls that looked good for Ds, but it wasn't anything clear or long-lasting. That might be the most unexpected move I've seen in the markets this entire cycle.

My best guess is it's just a correction - that he sort of outkicked his own coverage a bit with a week or so of relative calm (from the candidate himself), and that things just regressed to the mean a bit.

I had bids in to buy D/HRC/woman/Kaine at 63c, but the market never got to that point, and I obviously missed the big money-making opportunity there. I had the right idea, but wasn't aggressive enough (or was too greedy, if you prefer).


Markets continue to drop Trump...down to 24-27c after another day of decline. Same speculation about reasons behind it.

JPhillips 11-05-2016 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 3127217)
Another Hillary sponsored attack. At least I assume that is how the media will spin it... they would be quick to assume that if the same thing happened with a Hillary event that it was a pro-Trump sanctioned attack so they MUST use the same logic when it is reversed...right...

(disclaimer: I hate them both and wouldn't waste a second being upset if both of them were eliminated as they are both worthless)


If you find it so objectionable, don't do it.

Ryche 11-05-2016 10:13 PM

Will be interesting to see what exactly transpired. No permit is required in Nevada to open carry.

mckerney 11-05-2016 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ryche (Post 3127223)
Will be interesting to see what exactly transpired. No permit is required in Nevada to open carry.










JonInMiddleGA 11-05-2016 10:18 PM

Right, left, outer space, whatever ... some props for the Secret Service details of both major candidates this year. It can NOT have been an easy gig.

JonInMiddleGA 11-05-2016 10:21 PM

Sidebar here, but kinda related so I'll throw it out:

Twice in the past hour people have mentioned to me that Monday is a day with particularly high security concerns (i.e terrorist type stuff).

I hadn't heard a word of that previously, though I've been in a vaccuum more than usual for several days due to a sudden bout of work.

Is this info "a thing", and I'm just horribly out of the loop, or are ya'll wondering wth I'm talking about?

mckerney 11-05-2016 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA (Post 3127226)
Sidebar here, but kinda related so I'll throw it out:

Twice in the past hour people have mentioned to me that Monday is a day with particularly high security concerns (i.e terrorist type stuff).

I hadn't heard a word of that previously, though I've been in a vaccuum more than usual for several days due to a sudden bout of work.

Is this info "a thing", and I'm just horribly out of the loop, or are ya'll wondering wth I'm talking about?


US Intelligence warned of a possible Al-Queda attack Monday November 7th.

Sources: U.S. intel warning of possible al Qaeda attacks in U.S. Monday - CBS News

JonInMiddleGA 11-05-2016 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney (Post 3127227)
US Intelligence warned of a possible Al-Queda attack Monday November 7th.

Sources: U.S. intel warning of possible al Qaeda attacks in U.S. Monday - CBS News


Fair enough. I'll consider that definitive enough to declare myself vacuum brained & unaware.

Ryche 11-05-2016 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney (Post 3127224)









http://https://mobile.twitter.com/ma...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

Yeah, just a misunderstanding, surprised there haven't been more to this point.

Jas_lov 11-05-2016 10:55 PM

Even if he did have a gun he would just be exercising his 2nd amendment rights. No need to panic.

JonInMiddleGA 11-05-2016 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jas_lov (Post 3127238)
Even if he did have a gun he would just be exercising his 2nd amendment rights. No need to panic.


Raising one in the general direction of a presidential candidate is likely a bad idea. Reckless conduct if nothing else.

Edward64 11-05-2016 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney (Post 3127227)
US Intelligence warned of a possible Al-Queda attack Monday November 7th.


Oh great, I'm travelling so I guess I'll leave 30-40 min earlier.

Brian Swartz 11-05-2016 11:28 PM

Latest Senate projection(from 538): 50.2% Dem control, 49.8% GOP. That's ... pretty close.

Brian Swartz 11-05-2016 11:32 PM

Thought I'd post this as well since it's gotten some discussion around here, for those interested in the projects. This is Nate Silver on why the uncertainty is so high in his model this time around:

Quote:

Originally Posted by NateSilver, fivethirtyeight.com
In some ways, our fundamental hypothesis about this campaign is that uncertainty is high, with both a narrow Trump win and a more robust Clinton win — in the mid-to-high single digits — remaining entirely plausible outcomes. The polls-plus model, which gives Trump a 36 percent chance, is basically the same one that gave Mitt Romney just a 9 percent chance on the eve of the 2012 election, so it isn’t inherently so cautious. But the still-high number of voters not committed to either Trump or Clinton — about 13 percent of the electorate says it’s undecided or will vote for a third-party candidate, as compared with just 3 percent in the final 2012 polling average — contributes substantially to uncertainty.

So does the unusually broad swing-state map, with the outcome in at least a dozen states still in some doubt. And it’s important to remember that the outcomes in each state are correlated with one another, so that if Clinton underperforms her polls in Wisconsin (for instance), she’ll probably also do so in Minnesota. Forecasts that don’t account for these correlations are liable to be overconfident about the outcome. It isn’t hard to find examples of candidates who systematically beat their polls in almost every competitive state, as President Obama did in 2012 and as Republican candidates for governor and senator did in 2014.

And that’s before accounting for some of the factors that the model doesn’t consider: the disagreement in the polls, the unusual nature of Trump’s candidacy and the demographic changes it is producing, Clinton’s superior turnout operation, the possibility of “shy Trump” voters, the fact that the news cycle is still somewhat fluid headed into the final weekend, the declining response rates to polls, and the substantial number of high-profile polling misses around the world over the past few years. We think this is a good year for a forecast that calls for more caution and prudence.


RainMaker 11-05-2016 11:52 PM

Thought this was a good read. Basically Silver points out that Hillary likely has better odds than his formula says. Tough to gauge results with early voters being so high.

https://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/fiv...u-nate-silver/

mckerney 11-06-2016 01:25 AM




Trump had asked if he was a plant paid by Clinton and told the crowd to, "take him out."

Chief Rum 11-06-2016 01:08 AM

NYPD Weinergate blah blah blah stupid

I don't post this because I buy anything this article says (from Breitbart...of course), but I simply had to post it for the ridiculous UIC herein.

First of all, Weinergate? Is that really a thing they're calling this now?

And, oh yea, sex island.

AlexB 11-06-2016 04:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney (Post 3127262)



Trump had asked if he was a plant paid by Clinton and told the crowd to, "take him out."


It's easy to believe he was a paid plant, but if so I wouldn't want to put money on whose plant he was.

RainMaker 11-06-2016 07:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexB (Post 3127273)
It's easy to believe he was a paid plant, but if so I wouldn't want to put money on whose plant he was.


He's been a registered Republican since 2011. That's a pretty long con to pull.

Regardless, this is a dumb story. Looks like someone thought he had a weapon and yelled "Gun" (the same people who want open carry ironically). This caused the secret service and others to panic. He was rushed out and sent on his way.

Thomkal 11-06-2016 09:44 AM

Trump's campaign cancelled a rally to be held in Green Bay today, which I thought was a bit odd given their need to turn the state to him, and then I heard the reason why...the Packers are playing at the same time as the rally. Which if they had a better ground game, they probably would not schedule one at all, or at a better day/time for them.

Jas_lov 11-06-2016 10:26 AM

The final DM Register poll has Trump up 7 in Iowa, 46-39 so that looks like the best bet for a Trump flip. Dems have a 42K lead in early voting with about 40% of the vote in but that is down from the 63K lead they had in 2012.

mckerney 11-06-2016 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3127282)
Trump's campaign cancelled a rally to be held in Green Bay today, which I thought was a bit odd given their need to turn the state to him, and then I heard the reason why...the Packers are playing at the same time as the rally. Which if they had a better ground game, they probably would not schedule one at all, or at a better day/time for them.


Instead he's going to Minnesota, where he has even less chance than he does in Wisconsin, and he'll be there during the Vikings game.

Brian Swartz 11-06-2016 12:53 PM

Interesting mailer the other day from the Michigan Republican Party. The only affirmative thing it says is 'Be a Voter'. Nothing positive about Trump; in fact he is nowhere mentioned or pictured, nor is Pence. You literally couldn't tell from it who the 2016 Presidential Candidate of their party is. It has only two basic messages: go vote GOP and anti-Clinton stuff. Darndest thing I've ever seen, but perhaps a reflection of the political environment we are in.

mckerney 11-06-2016 01:05 PM

They're not the only ones leaving Trump off campaign materials.

Minnesota's Trump snub: 3rd District Republicans don't include presidential nominee on sample ballots | MinnPost

Thomkal 11-06-2016 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney (Post 3127291)
Instead he's going to Minnesota, where he has even less chance than he does in Wisconsin, and he'll be there during the Vikings game.


shocking! :) They seem to think they have a chance in Minn according to their own polls, only have Clinton ahead by 3, which are probably as faulty as their ground game.

Thomkal 11-06-2016 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney (Post 3127295)


Makes me wonder which Republican will get the most write-in votes. I've seen McCain and now Rubio mentioned. Probably Kasich gets some too.

Zinto 11-06-2016 03:21 PM



mckerney 11-06-2016 04:09 PM

Trump is bragging about winning a high school poll in Minnesota, so I guess that explains why he came here.

mckerney 11-06-2016 04:51 PM




Anti-Semitism from a campaign run by Steve Bannon, a man who didn't want his kids to go to a school because he thought too many Jews attended? I can't believe it.

JPhillips 11-06-2016 05:34 PM

How crazy has PC culture become when you can't even suggest that Jews are controlling the media and global finance?

mckerney 11-06-2016 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3127334)
How crazy has PC culture become when you can't even suggest that Jews are controlling the media and global finance?


You can't even complain about the (((global elites))) without SJWs getting outraged these days.

Ben E Lou 11-06-2016 07:02 PM

Take THIS, PC Culture. New ad released today will SHUT DOWN THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN.


NobodyHere 11-06-2016 07:14 PM

The FBI is saying the new Clinton email scandal is a nothingburger. Will anyone care?

cuervo72 11-06-2016 07:18 PM

Nope. You either believed it was a nothingburger to begin with, or you believe that Comey either caved to political pressure (like Newt is already saying) or was bought off.

JonInMiddleGA 11-06-2016 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuervo72 (Post 3127343)
Nope. You either believed it was a nothingburger to begin with, or you believe that Comey either caved to political pressure (like Newt is already saying) or was bought off.


Pretty much this.

The only people I'm inclined to mock a bit are those who idiotically believed that anything was going to land on HRC from this round. The (former?) Mrs. Weiner? Maybe. But Hils? That was a less than zero chance. It didn't even make much sense to expect it would.

RainMaker 11-06-2016 07:47 PM

Clinton up to -640 (from -400 this morning) at my Sportsbook.

EagleFan 11-06-2016 08:54 PM

She is obviously above the law, that is no surprise to anyone. Hopefully karma will show up soon.

cuervo72 11-06-2016 09:25 PM

What I don't get with this idea is where this source of untouchable power came about. Yes, the Clintons are good at networking, good at playing the political game, and from what her fans say, good at listening (and remembering). But the insidiousness? It's not like these two came from anything, especially Bill. He's a hick from Arkansas! It's not like they still have a huge power base or political machine set up there, unlike politicians who have been entrenched in a location forever (Reid? The Daley family?) I don't think they set anything up in NY. Washington sure, but it's not as if there aren't red power bases there. And they have TONS of enemies. Even within the party it wasn't enough to hold off an unknown one-term Senator. I don't get where this ability to bribe everybody comes from.

SirFozzie 11-06-2016 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 3127357)
She is obviously above the law, that is no surprise to anyone. Hopefully karma will show up soon.


it would have but your karma is currently being run over by your dogma. :P

SirFozzie 11-06-2016 10:06 PM

BTW, this is my old field of work (somewhat) so I can explain how it perhaps was done so quickly.

People are right that it would be impossible to review tens of thousands of emails one at a time to determine their National Security level and possible information within.

They wouldn't need to for a vast majority of them.

Using either a "hash" of the message or an email-id of the messages discovered on the device used by Huma Abedin (and in the possession of Anthony Dickhead, I mean, Weiner). they can compare it to emails already reviewed as part of the email server investigation. If the hash/ID already matches, they know they don't have to review it.

That would DRASTICALLY reduce the amount of emails that they needed to check to go through this investigation.

The company I worked for (EMC, now part of Dell) sold huge data storage boxes for this kind of thing, under that kind of principle, where if you have a amount of the same file saved across different locations (say your sales database), you just need one copy, with pointers to it from the other places, so all you have to do is track what's CHANGED, not what's the same. Then, during off hours, you merge the changes into the main file, and you're ready for the next day (that way, if you have a disk failure or what have you, you only have to rollback a small amount of changes, which are then done from recent backup)

edit: If you want to read more about point in time copies, and the like, here. Fair warning, it MAY melt your brain ;) https://www.emc.com/collateral/softw...nwldgbk-wp.pdf

RainMaker 11-06-2016 11:04 PM

It's crazy that I think just about any other Republican candidate could have beat Clinton in this election. The GOP picked the one guy who couldn't.


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