Flere, I agree with your equation, but you cannot discount the role of the "experience" card in campaigns.

Once again, I haven't seen much of that either. There's plenty of fraud to go around. It'll all even out in the end. The left's claims of 'stolen' elections appear petty and childish at best. I don't think Republicans will come even close to stooping to that level. A win is a win.

At work if something's broken we change it. That doesn't always mean better. In Obama's case it won't even mean different.

I never said the election would be stolen, flere, or that McCain would win. I responded to the "If Obama wins by 7, oversampled his votes, blah blah" joke, because I do believe that there is voter fraud going on.

I believe that it happens in both directions, but is much more prevalent on the Democrat side.

You have misinterpreted me.

Again, I believe McCain has lost this election fair and square. While I wholeheartedly disagree with the decision our nation is making today, I don't doubt that the result for Obama will be the will of the people.

I'd echo Jon in clarifying that I was referring to the margin of lead in the polls, and the margin of victory in some states.

This lol'd me for some reason.

If McCain had selected a more moderate candidate, if their entire focus of the campaign had gotten away from the religious right, the extreme social issues and focused on going with a more sound way of improving the economy be encouraging spending through less taxes and cutting of various un-needed government fat, etc.. I would have likely voted for him.

As it is, I could care less to vote for pushing the far right social agenda and I honestly don't think mcCain wanted that either but instead had his hand forced by the party, or someone just convinced him unwisely to do so. I think everyone pushing him further right is what actually caused him to lose the election. Sure he might get more votes from the far right, but those people were not voting Obama anyways. This current strategy on their part might have added more far right votes, but also pushed a good number of votes towards voting Obama. Net gain for the democrats.

I don't understand how conservatives can say that Obama is way left, and yet insist that Palin was positive or necessary for a close race or victory.

If Obama is far left, a centrist campaign should beat him right? Because the base will show up to vote against a far left candidate like Obama. And, as I have read here, we are a right center nation?

I don't understand the conservative logic, does not compute.

I looked at Beatty some, but I couldn't find anything that he really stood strong for other than his past military experience and how his past with the CIA and in the military makes him an expert on the war in Iraq. I also looked at Underwood, and he is a complete joke of a candidate.. I really didn't see any option other than voting Kerry for senator. I don't really like him that much, but considering the other options, it didn't seem like we had a great choice for U.S. senate this time.

You can't state that empirically though, so we'll have to wait and see until such a time as we can determine that.

I'm voting in 3 hours and still don't know who I'm voting for.

WASHINGTON – The only way Barack Obama can win in Indiana is to cheat, one of John McCain's stand-ins said Thursday.

He said votes have already been cast by "people who don't exist" and that a national voter-registration effort is "trying to steal the election in Indiana."

In an interview before headlining the Indiana Republican Party's fund-raising dinner in Indianapolis Thursday night, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said Hoosiers are too smart to vote for Obama.

Democrats, he said, "can't win fairly out here."

Asked if Democrats could win without cheating, Graham said, "No. They can't win fairly out here 'cause their agenda is so far removed from the average Hoosier.

Fraud is a problem with voter registration, not with actual voter fraud. Maybe if you had some basis of reality, you would see that vote fraud doesn't really play a big role in elections, unless you think stats like this: "In the United States, fifty-two people have been convicted of federal election fraud for voting in multiple locations since 2002" underestimate the vote fraud by 1000-fold.

Unless of course you have some statistical data to back any of your assertions up, which as usual is doubtful. Now if you'd like to talk about voter coercion and intimidation, and even disenfranchisement, then maybe things like that play a role. But please, at least consult reality sometimes.

The discussion revolved around this thread. I'm guessing those guys didn't post in this thread, though it would make it interesting if they had. I have no doubt that you'll find an idiot here or there to claim that (yes, I include Graham in the idiot group).

I expect Indiana to be a McCain state in the end, so I'm not sure it matters all that much.

While apparently the numbers don't support this assumption, it's really sad that people feel this way. Palin panders to the lowest common denominator. I really liked McCain. While I have lost quite a bit of respect for him over the last 4+ years or so, I still think he could make a decent president.

Palin, however, is beyond the pale. She is a divisive force and seems to bring out the worst in folks. I seriously hope she ends up a footnote, if so, that will be a very good sign for America. That said, I think she'll be around for a long, long time, which is despressing.

Palin certainly didn't influence my vote, but it certainly did make me feel better when I got to vote against her.

Seriously?

I thought you people were a myth!

As was pointed out earlier, the statistics cited in regard to this included partisan Obama voters, which is obviously not reflective of the overall effect. Many wouldn't have voted for McCain no matter what. We don't have a poll to compare what effect the other options would have had in comparison, so information in that regard is subjective at best.

Well in that case, I'm sure there was someone bitching if it included blogs. :D

Wow, miked. You sure told him.

Oh by the way, I've exceeded the speed limit in my car at least 1000 times for every ticket I've gotten. Just sayin.

I haven't seen any Ayers stuff on tv the last week in Virginia- hence why I didn't mention it. It's run its course and it didn't really work.

However, showing the Rev Wright stuff the last night before an election is clearly used to evoke a "see, look at his friend. fear the black guy when you go to the polls tomorrow" snap response.

I think it's pretty clear that when you bring back something that hasn't been used for months in a quick, sharp ad like that with the "God Damn America" clips- you know what the ad people were going for.

SI

Ya, seriously. I'm like a unicorn I guess.

LOL. Once again, I'd like to see numbers. But I guess it really depends on what you consider fraud. But I do love your kind of arguments. I can't really show any numbers, so who wants to watch me hit some homers!

I agree 100%. I want to add that even though I disagree with Obama on many issues, I do not think he is an evil man. He believes that he is doing what is right to make this country better. That doesn't make him a bad man.

Is it that you feel that you don't know enough about either candidate or that they both appeal (or don't appeal) to you at about the same level? If you're the former, you shouldn't vote. If you're the latter, you are like a unicorn ;)

Or there's always the option that you fit into one of John Oliver's four categories of undecided voters from a few weeks ago (attention seekers, chronically insecure, racist Democrats, and, by far the largest, the stupid- which can be broken down into many smaller subsets)

SI

Flip a coin...that's how I decided which girl was going to get my extra World Series ticket.

Oh, c'mon- this thread needs to reach 10000 :D

SI

How'd that work out for you?

Did you turn 28 today?

SI

Excellent!

Voter fraud? Really?!?!

:lol:

Sigh. :(

"(ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Does (Obama’s/McCain’s) choice of (Biden/Palin)
for vice president make you more likely to vote for (Obama/McCain), less likely, or won’t it make any difference in your vote? "


Date, Likely/Registered/All, More/Less/Indifferent

Obama’s choice of Biden:

11/1/08 LV 28 14 58

9/29/08 LV 26 14 60

9/4/08 RV 22 11 66

McCain’s choice of Palin:
11/1/08 LV 17 46 37

9/29/08 LV 24 32 43

9/4/08 RV 25 19 55

Compare to:

Kerry’s choice of Edwards:
7/25/08 RV 24 9 66

Gore’s choice of Lieberman:
8/7/00 All 15 10 73

Bush’s choice of Cheney:
7/29/00 RV 14 6 78

Dole’s choice of Kemp:
8/15/96 RV 18 6 75

For recent VP picks other than this year, people haven't historically cared, and the ones who have were roughly 2/1 in support of said VP pick. Palin is roughly 3/1 against. I know this is one poll, but there's no logical way you can conclude Palin is the reason the race is as "close" as it is.

The latter. Both have ideas I like and some ideas I can't see past. I have no desire to state what they are here because they are my opinions and they are too deep rooted for someone to even dent them in short time span.

As for the 4 categories, they are all pretty unflattering. I'm not a racist democraft, I'm not looking for attention (I'd do an Ireport on CNN if that was the case), stupid? I should hope not.. As for insecure, not 100% sure what is meant by that unless they mean that you aren't sure if your stance on an issue is right. (That is.. I'm for abortion, but like McCain otherwise so, maybe I'm wrong and should vote for him anyways...)

that's comparing apples to oranges - try this on instead:

for everytime you have run a red light at an intersection that has traffic cameras, how many warnings/tickets have you gotten later in the mail? I bet the ratio is a lot closer to 1:1

It's clearly obvious that the Republicans needed to pull in swing voters to have a chance to win. Palin probably lost this election for the Republicans by losing the undecided vote more than she provided the base a reason to vote for McCain.

I posted a while back on how the ACORN story was being misreported, because they were focusing on the names being submitted (Mickey Mouse, Tony Romo) which is irrelevant to the issue because they are required by law to turn ALL forms in. The only thing they can do is flag the false forms. Once the the media started to grasp that aspect, the stories died down significantly, because they realized that most of them had been flagged.

Well, yes the four categories are from the Daily Show. It was meant to be funny, not accurate. ;)

But, yeah, if you line up almost identically on both sides of things, you are a weird breed and good luck with your decision.

SI

*warning - blanket generalization below*

seems to me that Democrats have complained in the past about voter disenfranchisement, and now Republicans will complain about vote fraud.

*end blanket generalization*

of the two, there is certainly more evidence that disenfranchisement occurs than VOTE fraud.

Voter REGISTRATION "fraud" if you will, exists, but it's largely for reasons already discussed: volunteers paid by the registration, the requirement to turn in all forms, etc. The fact is though, that nobody named "Micky Mouse" ever shows up to vote, or indeed even makes it onto the voting rolls. In that sense, it's not fraud. It's the system working as it was designed to, to weed out these "bogus" applications.

*L*

Don't watch the Daily Show very much so, you got me there. :p :D

No wonder that list looked so freakin' weird. It was like some said "Ok, you are either stupid, an asshole, egotistical or weak.. pick one!"

In the "irony of the day" contest, we have a first entry:

A report just came that said the reason that Obama was waiting so long outside the polls before he voted, it seems that William Ayers was currently voting in that polling spot and Obama didn't want to give anyone the chance to get a picture of them both together. :D

I had not seen this, and am surprised by it.

I wish. It was a few years ago. :D

Maybe the legal definition differs, but it seems pretty point A to point B that a vote cast by someone after fraudulent registration would be ... umm ... fraud.

Let me just say this would be an unmitigated disaster for our country if it happened. I would rather have McCain lose than this happen. I just can't see Obama supporters accepting this if it happened:

Can Obama win popular vote but lose election? - Yahoo! News

so apparently in Philly 2 members of the Black panther party, one with a night stick are blocking the door intimidating voters claiming republican voters shouldnt bother voting because a black man is going to win.

I agree with your experience sentence. The problem with your equation is that judgment is based upon experience. When you were 18, did you have the same judgment you had at 36? Or did your judgment change based upon your life experiences?

I think, however, that there are diminishing returns on experience and judgment.

I'm just pointing out that your equation is somewhat circular. ;)

If true, throw em in jail, throw away the key, but I'm not going to trust internet rumor.

can you point to a documented instance of that happening? let alone say...100 documented instances of that happening? or 1000? The simple fact is that you can't (okay maybe one, but what did someone post earlier...52 arrests in the last election?) IT DOES NOT HAPPEN. FRAUDULENT REGISTRATIONS /= VOTES

well if true they ought to be prosecuted to the full extent of the law and locked up for years

Has a snowball's chance (if that) but it'd be a hoot, the whole agony of defeat thing would be priceless.

The more appropriate scenario would be the EC tie, which would be pretty indicative of how divided a mess we really are.

(using rcp)
9/4: McCain up 51-45 in most polls
9/29: McCain down 43-48 in most polls
11/1: McCain down 41-50 in most polls

so, when McCain was up 51-45, Palin had 25% more/19% less. When McCain was down 43-48, Palin had 25% more/32% less. When McCain dipped to 41-50, Palin had 17% more/46% less.

it seems that the economic issues and the state of the country brought down McCain's support, which (not surprisingly) decreased the amount of support for Palin.

What exactly do you mean by "not accepting this"? Riots? A coup? Or just a long, drawn out process like we saw in 2000?

Oh, I agree absolutely. Experience, like a great many other traits, can be overblown in importance during campaigns.


Ah, my bad. Apologies.


I think anyone hates to see an election where one candidate gets the popular vote and the other gets the electoral vote. Bush/Gore in 2000 was bad, sure, but I think it was made far worse by the shambolic nature of the interminable recounts in Florida, combined with Katherine Harris' obvious partisan leanings during the recount.

In the end, though, if we end up with the situation you describe, Arles, it'll be far worse than 2000 because I think people cared a lot less in 2000. For most, there didn't seem to be a lot of difference between Bush and Gore. The economy was great, we were in no wars, and the President was seen to probably be a caretaker after Clinton.

I know I personally was annoyed by the result, but I figured that it was unlikely Bush could do a lot of harm to the country. Worst case scenario, I felt, was that we'd lose more seats on the Supreme Court. Boy was I wrong....


Well of course - life is somewhat circular. :D

Of all elections, considering Obama's home state, to try to claim that isn't a long history of shenanigans? C'mon DT, you're smarter than that, surely you aren't going to claim that Richard Daley was clean just because he wasn't charged?

Drawn out process and riots.

Jon: Here's the thing, if there was large scale voter fraud in the last couple elections, don't you think Bush and Gonzales etcetera would have made a huge freaking media circus about it?

clearly he's referring to a coup. angry liberals taking to the streets - disenfranchised minorities

shit man...it's the turner diaries!! :eek:

not an internet report, it was on TV with an interview with an eye witness who was ex military and took them on, and footage of one of the black panthers.

then throw em jail for years.

Hilarious if true.

Looks like the party of tolerance is already starting to talk about their agenda once they land full power:


TheHill.com - Schumer on Fox: Fairness Doctrine ‘fair and balanced’

Nope. When you win you don't bitch about turnovers & penalty discrepancy nearly as much.

Awww...thanks :D

I'm sure that happened as well. My only point of contention is the indifference numbers for Palin versus Biden or any other VP listed.

If Obama wins the popular and McCain wins the EV, and this becomes clear relatively quickly (i.e. from overnight returns), I think there will be riots.

If we have a lot of close votes like in 2000, I don't think I see the process dragging out quite as much. For one, it's not going to catch anyone by surprise this time, so the process & precedents for recounting are pretty well understood. For two, both sides are heavily lawyered up and ready to go to battle over it.

Regardless of how things go down (long/short), if Obama wins the popular and McCain wins the EV, I think there might even be a serious effort, for the first time in memory, to do away with the Electoral College.

Now I have to go dig up the examples. There was a pretty big case here in NC back in 2000 I think where an underage kid registered at one of those "Rock the Vote" events, then actually voted (parents decided to "make a point"), and it got caught later in an audit.

I'll see if I can dig up the article. All my searches are being burned by the "Vote" links on everybody's freakin' web page, so I'm getting all these underage drinking/driving/sex articles rather than finding the underage voter...

Just because I am bored. Here are the top posters in this thread. I had to go down pretty far to get my name on the list :)

Mizzou B-ball fan	782
Flasch186	677
JPhillips	587
larrymcg421	448
DaddyTorgo	382
molson	371
JonInMiddleGA	328
ISiddiqui	309
Arles	277
flere-imsaho	270
Dark Cloud	237
ace1914	229
Ronnie Dobbs2	220
SFL Cat	220
Buccaneer	215
SirFozzie	199
sterlingice	191
GrantDawg	182
Vegas Vic	177
Big Fo	155
Galaxy	126
Mac Howard	115
albionmoonlight	109
Fighter of Foo	106
cartman	104
BrianD	96
Tigercat	84
Axxon	80
Butter_of_69	79
Galaril	74
Warhammer	72
CamEdwards	71
NoMyths	70
Kodos	67
st.cronin	66
Swaggs	65
Jas_lov	64
sabotai	61
Alan T	59
Passacaglia	58
lungs	56
Noop	53
lordscarlet	52
Maple Leafs	50
Chief Rum	49
Dutch	48
miked	44
Crapshoot	43
Crim	40
Fidatelo	38
Dr. Sak	37
astrosfan64	35
KWhit	34
QuikSand	31
timmynausea	31
Daimyo	29
DanGarion	27
Toddzilla	26
Subby	26
stevew	26
Radii	26
gstelmack	25
Neon_Chaos	24
King of New York	24
Klinglerware	24
Grammaticus	23
panerd	23
samifan24	22
chesapeake	22
rowech	21
Anthony	20
Deattribution	19
digamma	19
VPI97	18
Jon	18
Groundhog	18
fantom1979	17
SackAttack	17

He clarified it later on, or in a different thread.

Still, though, saying that clear evidence of widespread voter registration fraud exists, but denying possibility of significant voting fraud is contortionism.

Yeah, but I think the point is that this hasn't happened in decades, even in Chicago.

Vote early & vote often.

but it got caught in an audit hmm? so the system works. or did it get caught after everything had been tallied and all.

Wow...I'm 5th? Really? Go me.

LOL @ my new signature

LOL. If I didn't know better, I'd almost think you believe that.
Increased subtlety (or even decreased frequency) doesn't mean doesn't happen.

I sent out a message to my boss and the rest of our team last week that stated that due to Wisconsin law giving every worker 3 hours off to vote, I was going to vote 3 times and take the day off.

Welcome to the new era, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Agreed.

Is your boss a Democrat or a Republican? This could have some influence on whether your offer is accepted. :D

I am completely against the fairness doctrine and hope it doesn't get reintroduced. At the same time, I would also like all the censor happy groups to shut the fuck up and let me watch what I want on TV.

I think an Obama WH, Dem Senate and republican house would be the best recipe for the next 8 years. I don't know if that will be possible in 2010 though.

Jon: Please. with the amount of divisionary stuff the Bush folks have done, they'd have run with it for MONTHS.

And as someone said last page, while I do not wish for any version of the Fairness Doctrine to be imposed, I cordially invite the PTC/censor groups to kindly choke on my fuck, as my friend Chris would say.

Eh, they've been pretty much a disappointment to me in so many ways in the past severa years, I simply don't have the confidence you do.

You don't bring that up because you risk bringing up some of your own dirty tactics. If you won, you won and you don't want to look into it

SI

Can't find the article to find the exact details. But hey, you asked for one example. I was one of those that used to argue true/false questions with teachers because I could come up with obscure exceptions that would drive them nuts :D

My concern with voter fraud in this country is that it is too easy to impersonate a registered voter who is not actually intending to vote. Florida used to demand a driver's license, but here in NC I'm lucky if they even ask me to recite my address (which isn't much of a test).

I believe this has far more effect at the local level than it does at a national level. It's easy to find instances of voter counts messed up.

More votes counted than people visited polls: WTIC News/Talk 1080 - Newspaper: More Votes Cast Than Voters in Bridgeport Primary?

Dead registered voters voting:
http://www.texaswatchdog.org/2008/10...harris-county/

Just a few examples. At a national level it all evens out.

I think we are better off when the majority in Congress differs from the party in the White House. It's makes it harder for either party to push their agenda and look more towards compromise.

Hey, isn't it against FOFC law to publish post counts?

I think PETA would have a problem with some of the things you want to see done to donkeys by female midgets :lol:

yes please. although i like to see balance within the legislature - i don't want to see one side with a fillibuster-proof majority either, because i want there to have to be compromise to get things done. One said narrowly ahead is okay though.

It just doesn't make sense to commit fraud through registration tricks. In Indiana, based on 2004 turnout, 23000 voters would have to vote through fraudulent registrations to add just 1% to the tally. Do you really think there are 23000 people willing to risk felony arrest for such a small change in the outcome? All the while these 23000 people never talk about their plan?

Voter fraud is much easier and more likely at the ballot box/voting machine level. At least there a single person could conceivably change hundreds of votes at a time.

The real fights that make a difference are over access questions, voter ID, polling hours, absentee requirements, etc. Trying to rig a national election through individual votes in our current media environment is unlikely in the extreme.

Phony Virginia Flier Culprit Found

The Virginia Flier telling R's to vote today and D's to vote tommorrow was a "joke that got out of hand" and no charges will be filed.

I still don't like the "stealing elections" arguments, but news out of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (one of the few blue areas in the state - big enough to shift the whole state) is that the special police task force put in place to deal with potential fraud has been mostly replaced at the last minute by a bunch of rookies. At least one 30-year veteran of the force just retired "in disgust"...so the report goes.

hey guys, i just got a text message that said due to all the long lines, people planning to vote for obama should vote tomorrow.

just thought i'd let everybody know. guess i'll just go sit in the tavern.

These things have been going around every election day since I was a kid, so I dunno why all of a sudden now they're getting all sensitive about it. If someone this year doesn't know when election day is, they probably shouldn't be voting.

Why? They better accept it if it happens.

It's like the guy on halloween that puts his head in a cut out box and writes on it....Free Mammograms. Then women getting pissed because they were duped.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189

Final predictions and polls up.

The statisical model gives McCain a 1.1% chance of winning.

I don't think it's that people are getting sensitive about it all of a sudden. I think they are getting more news coverage now. I've heard about this for at least the past 2 presidential elections when I don't remember hearing much on the news about it before.

I will agree that if you don't know that today is the last day to vote in this election, especially with all of the media coverage that this election is getting, you've got issues.

"So you're saying there's a chance!!!!"

It's also been brought up every election day, DC, so I don't see that there's anything "all of a sudden" about the sensitivity...

But will they accept a banning?

I'm not sure. I wonder if Obama will come back bigger and stronger than evar!