Last one wasn't a complete game, 8 innings only.

Joe Morgan: "It's either a base hit or an error."

When you're down to Greg Norton as your last out, it's pretty much over even if Lidge is pitching.

edit to add: The kind of scary part is that there are actually a half dozen players with at least 20 PA as a pinch hitter who have an average even worse than Norton's .161 (9/56)

NYM Gary Sheffield .048 (1/21)
TB Gabe Gross .100 (2/20)
PHL Eric Bruntlett .143 (4/28)
PHL Greg Dobbs .156 (7/45)
SD Edgar Gonzalez .156 (5/32)
OAK Nomar Garciaparra .160 (4/25)

Yeah yeah, I know, Norton has drawn 17 walks ... pfft, he'd be better off going to the plate without a bat.

That lone Sheffield hit was his 500th HR...so he's got that going for him.

I don't have regressions at hand or anything, but I think there are 4 parts.

1 - My initial point was the ridiculous outlier that this year's Nyjer Morgan is. In 119 games, he's put up the 3rd best UZR in the 8 years of data - only a season each from Adam Everett and Andruw Jones sneak past. I haven't seen many scouting reports on him, I haven't seen him play, but I refuse to believe he's that much better than any OF'er of the past decade. I don't know if they're out there, but I guarantee the regressions are much better for infielders RF simply because of the greater number of chances. So with so much gray area, the question of whether a players defense is really saving 5 or 30 runs over a season becomes the basis for $10 million in "value" it's hard to take it seriously.

2 - SI's point about WAR and a player's market worth is spot on. Nyjer Morgan and Franklin Gutierrez*, to use a more familiar player for you, are clearly not worth the $10-$21 million range on the open market they've scored in WAR value the past 2 seasons. Franklin Gutierrez posted a .691 OPS and .306 wOBA last year, yet was worth $9.9m? The replacement level for good field, sub .700 OPS is Joey Gathright, Brian Anderson or Josh Reddick, all 3 who are playing for minsal in AAA for us right now.

3 - The tricky part is whether this clear disconnect with market value is because GM's drastically underpay for defense or because the metrics are flawed. I think it's partly the former (Morgan and Gutierrez are worth $5-7m or so) but moreso the latter. There's just no way even superlative defensive fielders like Adam Everett or Andruw Jones, sporting a sub .700 OPS is worth more than the defensively competent Kevin Youkilis and his .970 OPS.

*4 - Let's use Gutierrez vs. Ellsbury for statistics. Gutierrez is a fine defensive centerfielder, but I strongly suspect that since UZR is so tied in with Range Factor, and he plays in one of the biggest centerfields with, as you said, some extreme flyball pitchers, it's a bit inflated. (EDIT - did some math here.) Both are about 120 games in, and while Gutierrez has 15 more innings, he's also caught 72 more fly balls. If they switched places the whole time, I guarantee you that there haven't been 72 balls (a full 20%) that Ellsbury would not have gotten to. It's late, correct my math if wrong, (Double Edit - forgot about line drives, where the Sox are slightly higher 19%-18.6%) and I'm sure there's got to be an easier way to find this, but.

FB%-(IF FB%+HR%)---*---Outs+Hits-K's-HR's = Potential Fly Balls to catch
Red Sox - 18.8% 3552 = 667.8
Mariners - 20.9% 3619 = 756.4

Ellsbury 285/667.8 = 42.7% of FB's caught
Gutierrez 357/756.4 = 47.2% of FB's caught

So closer to a 10% difference than the 20% one pure rate RF gives Gutierrez, and apparently $5-6million of value. Maybe I should go look/post in their forums and see if this topic has been covered.

I noted that in the post you quoted, though I did change it to note it was 24 outs, not batters.

Can't believe he has 6 complete games and 3 shutouts. Just incredible.

Hell, he had 5/2 in the first 2 months- that was just sick.

SI

I'm trying to figure out what he needs to do down the stretch to get the Cy Young award. He's 13-8 on a team that's going to lose 100+ games. He leads the American League in ERA. He trails only Verlander in K's. He leads the league with 6 complete games. 3 shutouts has to be among the leaders, though I'm not certain.

He's got 6 starts left. Need at least 3 wins and probably 4 to get that win total up? Given how bad the Royals are, that shouldn't be needed, but we know how the voters generally vote.

He will be helped greatly by the regression of Halladay and Beckett. Verlander is his only competition, and I think he compares well to Verlander.

I think if Greinke can win 16, he's a lock for it. His ERA+ has been amazing this season, but the voters are usually a bunch of morons and sometimes seem to consider the Cy Young as the MVP of Pitchers, and with Verlander in a pennant race...

Yes, that's my concern. As a Royals fan, I'll take any sort of 'win' at this point. A Cy Young award for Zack would be a big deal for our fans in an otherwise very disappointing season. I'm still amazed at the crowd size at some recent home games. I think Royals fans are gluttons for punishment, though some might call it insane loyalty.

Sabathia will be in the conversation if he wins 20 and has an ERA in the low 3.00 range.

Also, Felix is still in the hunt - his numbers aren't that far off of Greinke. If he can keep pitching well and gets up to 17 or 18 wins and Greinke cools off a bit, Felix will be right there in the conversation. I doubt he'll win - too many things will have to happen - but he's in the mix.

Yeah, if Sabathia is Greinke-esque (or 2008 Sabathia-esque) down the stretch, he would likely win. I'm not sure that's going to happen.

Felix faces the same problems as Greinke, and his stats are not as good. They're great, don't get me wrong, I would love to have him on the Sox, but if Greinke can't overcome being on a losing team how can Felix?

Not that I think he should win, but at what point does the media start mentioning Kendry Morales along with Mauer, Teix and Jeter as an MVP possibility?

The minute he signs with Boston ;)

SI

I've seen Morales mentioned a lot recently, actually. But it's Mauer's to lose if there's any justice in the world.

Heh...I musta missed those reports. He has been phenomenal.

As for whether it should be Mauer's, I haven't crunched the numbers enough. I just know he's hitting for a lot more power than he had in the past, he was threatening .400 at one point (although I think he fell off from that), and, of course, he's a catcher.

I love Morales - picked him up off the scrap heap in fantasy and am not coincidentally in first place!

I think I've probably picked him up & released him at least a half dozen times on a couple of teams.

The man is batting .367/.435/.608 (he's leading the league in all three: BA/OBP/SLG)

His OPS+ is 178. Next closest in the AL is Miggy Cabrera at 148.

And, as you mentioned, he is a catcher (and a pretty fine defensive one).

Well, obviously it all depends on how the rest of the season plays out. Right now, here's what we have:

Zack Greinke: 13-8, 2.32 ERA, 190.1 IP, 202 K's
Felix Hernandez: 13-5, 2.77 ERA, 185.1 IP, 179 K's
Edwin Jackson: 10-6, 2.96 ERA, 170.0 IP, 131 K's
Roy Halladay: 13-8, 3.13 ERA, 190.0 IP, 165 K's
Justin Verlander: 15-7, 3.38 ERA, 189.0 IP, 215 K's
C.C. Sabathia: 15-7, 3.56 ERA, 192.1 IP, 158 K's
Scott Feldman: 14-4, 3.72 ERA, 150.0 IP, 88 K's
Josh Beckett: 14-5, 3.80 ERA, 175.1 IP, 163 K's
Jered Weaver: 13-5, 3.89 ERA, 173.1 IP, 148 K's

Barring injury, these guys will get ~6-7 more starts. Looking at each one:

Greinke: He's had the best year, I don't think anyone can question that. The issue is whether his win total will be high enough relative to the rest of the field. His ERA is so far ahead of everyone else that he'd have to have a really rough end of the season for anyone to catch him. But if he ends up with only 14 or 15 wins, he's probably not going to win it. Even 16 wins will be tough, especially if someone like Sabathia gets to 20. If the Royals can score some runs for him and get him to 17 or 18 wins, he's likely to win.

Felix: Greinke, but with not quite as good an ERA. Needs to win at least 17 or 18, which could be a real challenge with the hits the M's lineup has taken of late. He'd probably need at least a 2 win edge on Greinke also to overcome their ERA difference.

Jackson: Great season, but virtually no shot given his 10 wins. He'd basically have to win all his remaining games, have Greinke and Felix stay stuck at 14 or 15 wins and none of Sabathia, Beckett & Verlander win 20.

Halladay: Another strong season for Halladay, but with the same win total as Greinke and Felix and a higher ERA and no significant edge in IP, he's an outside shot. He'd have to win 5-6 more, see Greinke and Felix stay at 15 or less wins, and have a few dominating starts to improve his ERA.

Verlander: The only guy arguably more dominant this season than Greinke, and has a 2 win edge on a team capable of scoring runs for him. If he gets to 20 wins without seeing his ERA balloon, he's probably the favorite (unless Sabathia also wins 20). Voters will be willing to overlook the ERA difference between Greinke and Verlander if Verlander has 3-4 more wins, especially considering Verlander's league-leading K total.

Sabathia: Has the advantage of playing in New York, both in terms of publicity as well as run support. He's a lesser version of Verlander this year - higher ERA, fewer K's - but if he gets to 20 wins and Verlander doesn't, and Greinke sits at 15 wins or so, Sabathia is your Cy Young winner.

Feldman: Has a nice win total, but his only chance is if he can get to 20 wins and neither Verlander or Sabathia get past 17 and Greinke & Felix don't get past 15. Lacks the dominance of the rest of the guys listed, and it's too crowded of a field for him to get much notice.

Beckett: If Sabathia is a lesser version of Verlander in this discussion, Beckett is a lesser version of Sabathia. Has name recognition and plays in the 2nd most hyped market, but he needs 20 wins and Sabathia & Verlander to not get past 18, plus he needs enough good outings to drop his ERA about a third of a run.

Weaver: His win total and ERA keep him in the fringes of the conversation, but he has almost no shot.

Note, this isn't how I think the voting should play out - at this point the only Felix is close enough to Greinke in terms of performance to merit discussion - but rather how I think it will play out given voter tendencies.

How did we ever get to the point where ERAs near 4 got you anywhere near the Cy Young conversation?

FWIW, I thought at the midpoint of the season, Weaver was definitely a guy to consider (although, even then, I would have given it to Greinke easily over Weaver). I still think it's a travesty he wasn't invited to the All Star game. That was an absolute joke.

Since the mid point, though, Weav has been a little hit and miss, and his numbers have taken a hit. Still, good, but not as good. So I don't think he much belongs in the conversation anymore, short of an absolutely phenomenal (ie. Greinke April-esque) September.

He shoulda gotten a win Saturday, though. Six shutout innings, and the pen blew it. :(

dawgfan, thanks for the work of that write up.

I agree with you for the most part. My personal feeling, and I hope I'm not putting what I wish to happen into it too much, is that Greinke's statistical superiority will win out UNLESS one of those (Sabathia, Verlander) goes on a tear for this last month and more or less steals it from him.

Last year, we had winners from a .500 team and a 90 loss team though they did have 22 and 18 wins respectively.

It's pretty laughable that anyone other than Felix and Zack are being considered currently. Those would seem to be the two obvious choices.

Yeah, Felix is the only one that should have a shot, but I don't care if Felix gets to 19 wins, while Zack is stuck at 13. Zack still deserves it if his ERA is lower.

Edwin Jackson would beg to differ (he's only 2 points away from Hernandez in ERA+ this season after all)

I like Edwin Jackson, but wins matter for this award (like it or not). 10 wins ain't gonna do it.

His teammate, Verlander, because of wins and that high K total, has a better chance than Jackson right now.

Yeah, but MBBF was talking about who deserves to win, not who will win. In that scenario, wins shouldn't matter one bit.

Fair enough.

Royals set to extend Moore’s contract through 2014 - Kansas City Star

When is Jeff Francoer a free agent?

Where is he in comparison to Greinke? I'm asking because I don't know much about ERA+ and what it even measures.

Hmmmmm......I thought Chan Gailey might get a chance to move across the parking lot. Guess not. :)

Greinke - 189
Felix - 156
Jackson - 152

Adjusted ERA+ - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

*sigh*

Well, what with all the other teams beating a path to the Royals door for him and his superior performances both in the field and with his prospects in the minors, this is only natural.

SI

Agreed - I think we all realize that single season snapshots of defensive ratings have significant sample error. I don't think anyone actually thinks Morgan is one of the best defensive outfielders in the last 30 years, though I suppose we should wait a couple more years and see how his numbers look then.

Here's where I differ. Not necessarily on the specific examples you cite, but the concept. First off, can we agree that offensive metrics are advanced enough that we have confidence in FanGraph's park adjusted runs above average numbers? If so, then the real issue here is accepting the range of values that we see for fielding runs above average. Obviously there's some disconnect between the actual free market dollars we see spent on certain players vs. what the WAR valuations would suggest, but it's also true that currently, the "Moneyball" approach in the game (i.e. the undervalued asset in the marketplace) is defense. And with the success we've seen in Tampa last year and Seattle this year where major defensive upgrades have led to significant win improvements, I think the market is going to adapt, much as the market did to the original "Moneyball" approach valuing OBP.

On the specific examples you cite, I guess it all depends on how you judge the defense of those players; UZR would suggest that while Gathright is a plus OF, he's still well short of Gutierrez. Gutierrez has obviously taken a nice step forward offensively this year, but it could be argued he was already a better hitter than Gathright before this year. Anderson is worse than Gathright as a hitter and worse as a fielder, just a bit above average. Reddick, who knows - he doesn't have nearly enough major league time to measure his defense in comparison with the rest. It would appear that he has a shot at being OK with the bat though.

I think the disconnect has been because defense is hard to quantify while offense isn't. Sabermetrics had offensive value figured out quite a while ago, with only incremental improvements over the last several years. Pitching on the other hand had the major bombshell of DIPS dropped in the last 10 years, and GM's are only starting to really fully embrace that discovery. Defensive metrics are still being refined, but while they're a long way from the accuracy of offensive stats, they've come a long way. There are still market inefficiencies with regard to defensive value, and there are some teams taking advantage of that. As defensive metrics continue to evolve though and you see more and more front offices that embrace sabermetrics, that inefficiency will close. The advent of Hit F/X will go a long way towards solidifying measurements of defense.

As to relative values, you're not really comparing apples to apples. You're right - Adam Everett doesn't compare to Kevin Youkilis. But who is saying so? FanGraphs isn't - they had Everett at a WAR of between 1.0 & 2.6 in his prime years (2003-2007), whereas Youkilis has been between 2.1 & 5.5 since 2006.

Good stuff. One thing to consider though - Gutierrez is flanked by Ichiro in RF and for part of the season Endy Chavez in LF and now Michael Saunders. Ichiro and Chavez are both excellent OF's, and Saunders appears as though he is at least a plus defender. Balls that Gutierrez might otherwise chase down are being caught by Ichiro and Chavez/Saunders.

Ellsbury is surrounded by J.D. Drew and Jason Bay. Drew is a pretty good OF, but Bay is not. Ellsbury is getting some balls in LF that Gutierrez doesn't have to.

Gutierrez has been rated at 20+ fielding runs above average the last couple of years by UZR, and I believe RZR and Dewan's Plus/Minus also both think highly of him. And from watching him play, it's not hard to imagine why - he never seems to take a bad path, always gets a great jump, is very fast and is frequent running down balls that normal guys just don't get to.

Again, I think the crux of this whole discussion has to do with whether the kinds of ranges of defensive value put forth by the defensive metrics are realistic. Adam Everett in his prime was rated as being about 21 runs better than the average SS, and over the last couple of years Yuniesky Betancourt is rated about 14 runs below the average SS. You can argue with the specifics (has Betancourt been 19 runs worse than average this year?), but the more pertinent question is the general range.

And that's what I perceive as being the real issue here - it's easy to look at Adam Everett's batting stats and think there's no way his defense is good enough to make him an above average player overall, but if those metrics are correct, he is (or was). CF A could have an .850 OPS as a hitter but be bad enough in the field that CF B with a .700 OPS but a great glove could actually be contributing more towards his team winning than CF A.

I'm looking forward to Hit F/X being implemented so fielding metrics can get that much more refined and measureable.

An even better measure of how each one has actually pitched (i.e. taking away the play of the fielders behind them) shows it like this:

tRA:
Greinke - 2.26 (155 tRA+)
Felix - 3.35 (133 tRA+)
Jackson - 4.42 (111 tRA+)

By tRA, the contenders would look like this:
Greinke - 2.26
Verlander - 3.31
Felix - 3.35
Halladay - 3.36
CC - 3.98
Beckett - 4.25
Jackson - 4.42
Feldman - 4.69

Morgan is a good range defender. They worked a lot on positioning this year, he was considerably off the line which I believe directly prevented quite a few doubles. He was playing next to McClouth the majority of the time in pittsburgh, nobody confuses Nate with a gold glove CFer* I don't doubt that his defense is very valuable, I suppose i could see him saving 20-25 runs a year. That really wouldn't be something that would shock me.

I'll trust though, that Huntington, who's a huge stathead, wouldn't have considered trading Morgan if he actually felt/did the analysis, that his production was as good as the WAR$ seemed to imply. Either that means he has issues with the formulas and doesn't put that much stock into them. Or thought that Milledge was worth parting with that kind of production.

I guess, in short, the numbers just struck me as a crazy outlier, and that if Neal had no problem dealing Nyjer, perhaps they are a bit flawed.

I've generally agreed with the methodology of every move he's made.

So the Royals are extending Dayton Moore until 2014???

Wow.

Yeah, my sympathies to Royals fans...

Pettite perfect through 6

At least we're certain to get a good Posnanski article from this.

I hate you Yankees, please fail Andy Pettite.

NO! Hairston just booted a ground ball and the perfect game bid is over.

Well with ARod getting the day off Hairston boots an easy grounder so the perfect game is gone

I win.

Now we just need a hit... come on O's

poof


happy I jinxed it.

And now a hit so the no hitter is gone.

Damn Lathum, we are great!