1) it's kind of insane that we're talking about "could win and still lose" for a Republican candidate and the states of Arizona, Utah, and Georgia. Those are states, particularly Utah, that shouldn't be any kind of a challenge for a normal Republican candidate.

2) The TL;DR version of that is the same as it is for most Republicans: you need to win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and North Carolina. I mean, you can change that math a little bit if you flip Iowa and Colorado, but even that only reduces you to "win three out of four" territory on OH/PA/FL/NC.

It's definitely a demographically challenging map for Republicans, which is why it's so head-scratching that instead of nominating a candidate who can appeal to swing states like Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina, Republicans double down on the WE ONLY LOST BECAUSE WE WEREN'T CONSERVATIVE ENOUGH derp every four years. You can win elections like that in a Congressional race.

Not so much the Presidency.

I expect you to be mentioned in a Trump speech or on his website in 3, 2, 1... :)

Is there any chance that after Nov 8, Trump wil just go away? I mean, I know he won't just disappear, but will he at least go back to asshat celebrity apprentice host level Trump, where his name will only cross my social media feed once every other month or so, like back in 2014?

I think you're going to get Trump Media. Him teaming up with Breitbart in the campaign was the start. Doubt it'll be big enough to have it's own TV channel but I fully expect a site with radio shows, TV shows, etc. Basically Breitbart/Infowars but with higher production values and more funding.

Well Kennedy wouldn't be anymore. If Garland gets confirmed, he'd be the new Kennedy (or it might be Breyer). The main problem with a split court is that a 4-4 decision leaves no direction for the lower courts. So if there's a dispute between the circuits (as there was with the gay marriage and Obamacare cases), there'd be no way to resolve it.

I knew that. It's just crazy they got paid that much was my point. I'm in the wrong business. :)

Just saw on CNN ticker-plane carrying Pence has slid off runway in NY.don't know details yet.

Trump has questioned why we are even having the election, when they should just give the Presidency to him because Hillary's policies are "so bad".

Donald Trump: 'We Should Just Cancel the Election and Just Give It to Trump' - ABC News

House Rep Chaffetz says he has two years of stuff already lined up to probe if Clinton wins.

Everyone's fine:

Pence's plane skids off runway at New York airport, no injuries

Not the headliner race, but still. Classy.

Sen. Mark Kirk questions opponent’s American heritage in Illinois debate - The Washington Post

I haven't heard this discussed anywhere but after the election, if Hillary wins, I am in favor of a full and comprehensive pardon from Obama for literally everything just to avoid this three ring circus for another 4 years.

yeah I was wondering about the pardon. Wasn't sure she would still be protected from Congress probes with a pardon. If there are no political implications for her from this, I think a pardon would be a nice FU Christmas present to all the Republicans from Obama :)

From Breitbart News:

TEXAS DEMOCRAT ADMITS TO VOTE RIGGING

A man registered to vote in Randall County, Texas admitted to rigging voting machines in a public statement on the internet yesterday. "I can do it in my sleep," he said, taunting hard-working conservatives through out the state of Texas.

[Well, maybe it's not on Breitbart yet, but I'm sure they'll be picking up the story very, very soon.]

So the first post (from one of my brothers) I see when I get on Facebook this morning. The two of them at one of the debates shaking hands and in big letters over it. "Remember your assigned voting dates: Republicans Nov 8, Democrats Nov 9."

But Trump told me it was November 28th!

Republican voters should always believe what he says :)

That's the late voting date. You see, there's early voting, and there's late voting.

Makes sense! And probably the lines will be more reasonable.

Did my civic duty today, and voted (love this is the first election with early voting here in MA)..

Hint: I didn't vote for the Orange Goblin.

ftfy

Yeah, he should basically pardon her for like a zillion things, not limited to "stealing the cookies from the cookie jar"

Yeah that would calm things down in DC. ;)

I think creating a successful media network around one person has failed every time. Glen Beck, Al Gore, even Oprah is a major disappointment. There has to be some fatigue from this 18 month political show. I know I can't wait to see Turducken posts on my feed. Also, how effective/entertaining will Trump be if he just another guy complaining about something? I think Palin showed that without meaningful power your musing are at best a 2 day sideshow.

He should pardon her for the murder of Vince Foster, just to make their heads explode.

While I like the idea in an imaginative fuck you to Republicans, such a pardon wouldn't stop any investigations and would guarantee she loses in 2020.

Speaking of pardons, the FBI is reopening the email investigation.

Clinton shares tumbling on PredictIt

Is this real life?

This is how Trump caught up before the debates, by staying somewhat on message and avoiding saying anything incredibly stupid for several days.

I find it hard to believe that anyone is buying Trump as road-warrior politician instead of insane egomaniac anymore, but the polls are tightening ever so slightly.

"Re-opening the investigation" is kind of an over-dramatic way of putting it. The investigation was never "closed", the FBI just informed the legislature that it's found more emails it wants to look at. That's not really surprising that more emails are going to trickle in over time. That's the bed Clinton made.

The headlines are going to tighten the race further though, and Trump already had a tiny amount of positive momentum the last few days (according to 538).

Looks like the Clinton shares stabilized at 75 cents on PredictIt.

I think that Clinton still has the presidency locked up.

Senate control seems to be on a razor's edge, though. This could have an impact on that if it keeps some Clinton voters home.

I think barring a massive polling error, this is still Clintons to lose. She has close to double digit leads in PA, NH and CO which are part of a pretty solid firewall and Trump probably needs to flip 2 of 3 to win.

Doesn't look like it's going to be the runaway though (unless the polls are wrong the other way), he's solidifying in OH and AZ and going the right way in FL.

TLDR, no im totally not refreshing 538 every 30 minutes like an obsessive

I don't think this keeps Clinton voters home. I think it's more likely to send Trump voters to the polls and win him back some NeverTrumpers.

I think this is probably the bit of political news Democrats dreaded would happen. Haven't seen the report yet on what exactly may have been found, but the fact its the FBI and not WikiLeaks certainly doesn't bode well for her. Can she and her supporters spin this enough it doesn't cost her the election?

They haven't reported on what it is they are looking at, other than saying the emails were related to another matter. That means to mean it has nothing to do with classified emails. It very well could be that they are related to the Podesta email hack.

Pete Williams has sources saying not about Clinton world w/holding emails. Not about Podesta emails. Not emails from Clinton.

— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) October 28, 2016

Pete Williams sources also say it isn't going to be a game changer. But will take more than 11 days

— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) October 28, 2016

anyways, that just was reported by him on MSNBC.

— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) October 28, 2016

Pete Williams sources say in course of a separate investigation, FBI came across "a device." found emails there. but emails NOT from HRC

— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) October 28, 2016

Well, if nothing else, I think our nations leaders are discovering the importance of cyber security.

Honestly, this is a lesson that should've been learned a while back. Bush 2003-2009 lost 22 million emails, that should've been a wake up call, not to the heads at the top of the political ladder, but to their IT department folks. They had their chance to put things in a way that was right, and they did jack squat, so we're back to square one with Clinton.

What's that old saying, Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me? (and I'm not making fun of the Bush thing there). well, shame on the Government. Anyone who had ANY responsiblity for either of those incidents that didn't get their protest IN WRITING deserves to be canned.

And whoever wins the presidency better realize being fooled three times can't happen

I'm feeling better and better about my vote for Johnson. :D

2 of 3?! More like 7 of 7. As JPhillips posted earlier and what I have been saying since beginning, he needs to win every battleground state and even with the impossibility of doing that, it still would not give him enough electoral votes.

Why FBI Director Made Clinton Email Announcement Now

1. Case not reopened. 2. Comey had tocorrect testimony. 3. Involves 3 emails whose classification must be determined. 4. None w/held by HRC.

— Kurt Eichenwald (@kurteichenwald) October 28, 2016

There's some speculation the the device the emails were found on is related to the FBIs investigation of Anthony Weiner.

From the AP:

"BREAKING: US official: Newly discovered emails related to Clinton investigation did not come from her private server."

Looks like that was the case.

New Clinton Case Emails Tied to Weiner - New York Times

Anthony Weiner being involved is making for funny headlines at least.

Nice batteries!!

PredictIt back up to 79 cents, almost back to the original 82 cents when the day started.