latest on huffington post has the Revolutionary Guard warning it will crack down on further demonstrations - setting the stage for potential major bloodbaths

It's an interesting development, but I'm not sure that we can be certain what would happen in a situation where the Revolutionary Guard is called upon. The statement is from the top leadership of the guard, but there is plenty of evidence in the form of numerous arrests of the Revolutionary Guard middle leadership that there could be a good portion of them that will stand down or turn against the Iranian leadership. I think this is rhetoric more than an actual threat.

If the Revolutionary Guard is called upon, it could be just as much a sign of desparation by the Supreme leader as it is a show of force.

FWIW I agree with you. I think of this much more as a symbolic, rhetorical, desperate thing than an actual threat. I think that top leadership might be afraid to call out the Revolutionary Guard for exactly this reason - not being sure where the loyalties of the individual soldiers would lie in this instance (so many of them young, so many of the protestors young, mass movement, etc). So I think this is them basically playing their last trump card and saying "go home and behave or we'll call out the Guard" but I think in reality they'd be hesitant / very worried if it got to the point where they actually had to, because it's at that point that things could really spiral out of control against them quickly.

It's one thing (and an expected thing) for the leadership of the Revolutionary Guard, who owe their positions to those in power now, to back the establishment, but I have to wonder if they have any confidence that the ordinary soldier will fire into a crowd of women + men their age.

Just an interesting and significant development.

The ones who have the most to lose (Baseej (sp?)) are the once that are lashing out at protesters. A successful opposition movement would destroy their power. The Revolutionary Guard is much different. They would still hold quite a bit of power even if the opposition were successful.

Right, but the elite of the current Revolutionary Guard are tied into the existing power-structure. They get to go to all the good parties and profit from the existing system (intentional oversimplification, but you know what i mean).

Much more so than the ordinary soldier in the ranks. Which is why the leadership of the RG might say one thing, but that's no guarentee that the average soldier is going to open fire on a crowd of women + young people + grandparents.

True, but the Revolutionary Guard will still play a major role in the new government as well. If you don't work them into the power structure of a new government, they are powerful enough to start a civil war and establish a military state.

of course. you can't do away with them altogether. i wasn't trying to say they would dissapear. just that their senior leadership has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo and that that may or may not be what the vested interest of the ordinary soldier is

Seeing reports of a national strike tomorrow and Wednesday on twitter.

any link showing the divide between upper and middle management? No Sarcasm intended, I shouldve made that clear due to our history....apologies. This isnt the Obama thread :)

Mizzou B-ball fan doesn't link. He posts with great frequency and you are expected to nod and approve.

would love to see that!

Dear Son of Shah,

This isn't about you either.

Thanks.

oh god really?

he needs to STFU or he's just going to cause problems

8:07 PM ET -- 'Rafsanjani poised to outflank Khamenei.' An analysis by Eurasianet, a project of George Soros' Open Society Institute:

Looking past their fiery rhetoric and apparent determination to cling to power using all available means, Iran's hardliners are not a confident bunch. While hardliners still believe they possess enough force to stifle popular protests, they are worried that they are losing a behind-the-scenes battle within Iran's religious establishment.
A source familiar with the thinking of decision-makers in state agencies that have strong ties to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said there is a sense among hardliners that a shoe is about to drop. Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani -- Iran's savviest political operator and an arch-enemy of Ayatollah Khamenei's -- has kept out of the public spotlight since the rigged June 12 presidential election triggered the political crisis. The widespread belief is that Rafsanjani has been in the holy city of Qom, working to assemble a religious and political coalition to topple the supreme leader and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

"There is great apprehension among people in the supreme leader's [camp] about what Rafsanjani may pull," said a source in Tehran who is familiar with hardliner thinking. "They [the supreme leader and his supporters] are much more concerned about Rafsanjani than the mass movement on the streets."

Ayatollah Khamenei now has a very big image problem among influential Shi’a clergymen. Over the course of the political crisis, stretching back to the days leading up to the election, Rafsanjani has succeeded in knocking the supreme leader off his pedestal by revealing Ayatollah Khamenei to be a political partisan rather than an above-the-fray spiritual leader. In other words, the supreme leader has become a divider, not a uniter. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Now that Ayatollah Khamenei has become inexorably connected to Ahmadinejad’s power grab, many clerics are coming around to the idea that the current system needs to be changed. Among those who are now believed to be arrayed against Ayatollah Khamenei is Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the top Shi’a cleric in neighboring Iraq. Rafsanjani is known to have met with Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani’s representative in Iran, Javad Shahrestani.


A reformist website, Rooyeh, reported that Rafsanjani already had the support of nearly a majority of the Assembly of Experts, a body that constitutionally has the power to remove Ayatollah Khamenei. The report also indicated that Rafsanjani’s lobbying efforts were continuing to bring more clerics over to his side. Rafsanjani’s aim, the website added, is the establishment of a leadership council, comprising of three or more top religious leaders, to replace the institution of supreme leader. Shortly after it posted the report on Rafsanjani’s efforts to establish a new collective leadership, government officials pulled the plug on Rooyeh.

Quit meddling.

It was posted earlier in the thread and has been linked a couple of times on Huffington Post. There was an initial wave of arrests of 16 leaders within the Guard who were organizing their troops together to back the protesters.

There's also an unconfirmed report today that another senior leader has been arrested. We'll likely hear whether that's true later today.

Iran is basically shut down today. Strike is in full effect. Government is threatening their jobs if they don't return to work tomorrow. Given that another strike is planned for tomorrow, that's not likely to happen. Protests are expected to renew Thursday. Will likely be another very large rally.

didnt see anything about the strike today reported yet - that's good news

Interesting correspondance here. The women have figured out that the death of Neda has resulted in police/military steering clear of injuring women seemingly at all costs. As a result, many women are using that against the police knowing that they won't be attacked.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Nice to see the Iranian police is sexist.

More communications from Mousavi to organize the opposition. They've told everyone to go to the local markets and flood the places with people every day while not buying anything. It's another form of strike.


Also, protest locations will be announced just before protests to make sure government doesn't have time to mobilize and short-circuit the protests.

What a great country...


Time frame set for Ahmadinejad's inaugural - Los Angeles Times

And remember, loose lips sink ships, so whatever you do don't tell anybody about our super double secret plan. The government will never think of looking at my Twitters so this should really catch them completely by surprise.

Eh, I don't think they were aiming for secrecy clearly. More like "plausible deniability" or something. If you get a bunch of people dressed normally heading to the central market like they're going shopping and they get beaten/tear-gassed/massacred by the Revolutionary Guard and such, that is about 10 million times more powerful than a bunch of protestors getting beaten/gassed.

I think it's also supposed to be more inclusive and provide a way for people who might have been afraid to be out there protesting and getting beaten to say "see it's okay for you to participate safely and this is how."

I actually think it's an ingenious idea, and when combined with the mass strikes (that mbbf claims are going on though i haven't heard anything to that effect, but otherwise will start tomorrow i guess?), does a lot to portray it as much more of a popular-movement and make it accessible.

Nicely done DT...

How plausibly deniable is this though? I mean seriously, it's like a revolution plan conceived by the cast of Code Name: Kids Next Door.


Sorry, I don't really see that. I mean, unless we're supposed to be stupid enough to find them more sympathetic because of what they're wearing / not wearing, either they are or they aren't. Let's think about this a minute, just for the heck of it. If you're the guys in charge & the guys with the guns, then what matters ultimately is whether you're doing what you're told to do, not what form of disobedience you're practicing. Meanwhile if you're on the outside watching and are upset by an armed response then I'd say the hue & cry is going to be raised & at roughly the same volume regardless of whether it's protesters with signs being shot in the streets or someone taking part in a fake-shopping-it's-really-a-strike protest and especially if you're made the scam known publicly. What denial would be plausible after that? It's just sort of insulting to the intelligence if what you suggest they're thinking is actually the logic behind this amateur hour stuff that MBBF posted.


Struck me completely the opposite I guess, to the extent that it really made we wonder whether the new guy is capable of handling a major role even if there is some sort of regime change.

LOL - If there's one thing you can't argue with it the ability of the people in power ON BOTH SIDES in Iran right now to successfully stage a revolution. The leadership of the establishment and the leadership of the hardliners is still entirely composed of people who were insturmental in the 1979 Revolution.

No offense, but I'd take their revolutionary-planning (which has succeeded in the past spectacularly) over yours any day. If they say that this is the best course of action then there isn't a doubt in my mind that it is.

it's not about whether we find them sympathetic. it's about whether the ordinary soldiers and riot police will massacre them if instead of being a mob of marchers it's a more orderly throng of people with their kids/parents/etc who are headed towards the central market, and whether framing it in this way will get people's mothers and grandmothers to join in and swell the numbers beyond what they have been.

Time will tell, I just see the only difference this making being which clothes they're wearing when they get beaten or shot.

As for any impact on the troops/militia, if they ultimately don't shoot based on the composition of the crowd then this is already over (whether either side knows that for sure yet or not) & we're just watching it wind down to the conclusion anyway.

as much as i say that, i think the resolution to this won't come down to the troops and whether or not they'll fire on the crowd.

instead it'll be Rafsanjani and his supporters removing the Ayatollah and setting up a "Council of Ayatollahs" in his place.

after reading the report that was linked in the huffington post snippet that i posted last night i really see that as the likely outcome of all of this.

the continued protests and mourning is just ensuring that Rafsanjani gets the like...4 more clerics on his side that he needs and keeping the pressure on those that have "committed" to him to stay the course

Sounds like a bloody confrontation today. Live rounds being fired at the protesters as they assembled.

From what I can see on Twitter, things have gotten very bad.

damn.

gah. my heart breaks for those brave souls.

Man, it looks like from the reports that there's one hell of a battle going on in multiple locations in Tehran.

Also, the gov't taped and photographed demonstrators and is now showing their pics on state TV so they can arrest them.

I'm not trying to make a domestic political point, but it's too bad Iran citizens seemingly have no practical right to firearm ownership.

Just saw another video on MSNBC showing protesters rushing police and military and running them off holding nothing more than stones. Crazy stuff.

Gun ownership rights for Iranian citizens is only one of many bullshit things they have to deal with. What a shitty region to live in. :(

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - Officials: President Obama reconsidering July 4 invitations to Iran « - Blogs from CNN.com
Well... that'll teach 'em!

urban gun ownership is low, but rural gun ownership is apparently very high, which is one reason they're worried if the protests start spreading outside tehran

Shouldn't you be smuggling guns into Iran or something?

Some things I found interesting in this article:


huh. interesting.


What HAVEN'T we been blamed for by these douchebag countries? Whether it is true or not is irrelevant, their hatred for us knows no boundaries.


This sounds suspiciously arrogant, egotistical, and dictator-like to me. Worse, our stupid media adds to the propaganda by referring to him in this manner.



huh. can you define "we", "no witness", and "major fraud or breach" please? Oh wait, that would only be possible if you weren't corrupt, Western hating power-mongers.

Moussavi has to distance himself from the officially in order to avoid making it easy for the government to imprison him

Exactly. He's the main organizer. He's also made himself bullet-proof to some extent by proclaiming that he's ready to be martyred if need be. That puts the government in a position that they'll likely face a civil war if he's killed. In addition, he's asked them to continuing the strikes and protests if he's imprisoned. So the gov't risks even larger and more vigorous protests if he's arrested.

It's obvious that he and his cohorts have done this before. They appear to be outflanking the government moves every step of the way.

I am amazed (but not) that you guys think this situation would be better if the average citizens had firearms. Violence begets violence. There would be dead police as well as FAR more dead protestors. Imagine if the civil rights movement involved protestors firing back at police brutality.

Didn't he flatly deny saying that though?

Yeah, the guy who finished third in the race also has withdrawn his request for a new election count. (Can't think of his name at the moment).

I didn't see that.

But your point also leads to something else. We have to remember that communication is very limited in Iran. Even if he didn't say it, it was communicated throughout the movement and any denial was probably not passed on. Many people don't identify with him on all issues, but he's become a figurehead for this movement. He's almost a puppet of the people at this point. If he's killed, protesters will go nuts and defections within the police, army and Revolutionary Guard will occur.

The anti-civil rights movement had no issue with this.

But imagine if the Colonists had had no access to firearms...

Fixed.