Agreed. Doesn't mean it wouldn't be worth trying. I think Biden is very much a long-shot now. Anyone else would be as well, but at least they might have something other than "I'm not Trump" to energize people about.





No it wasn't. I think there was a reasonable assumption then that he was not going to run again if he won. There was definitely a wink and a nod from his campaign at the time, and based on his age it only seemed logical that he wouldn't. He wasn't my choice then, but there was some good argument at the time that he was exactly what we needed for that election (established, stable, known, respected), but his decline mentally and physically, especially in the last year, makes him a liability now.


No it doesn't. He can be in mental decline (which he obviously is) and not be a gibbering idiot incapable of reasonable thought. That he no longer has the mental acuity to continue in one of the most demanding jobs on earth doesn't mean he isn't capable of self-assessment. I think it is way more likely that it just hubris. You have to have a giant ego to believe you could handle that job in the first place.

Shapiro and Whitmer easily won races against a Trump candidate in states Biden has to win. I think either one would carry Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan which is all the Dems need. They have 4 months to make their case and unlike Biden, they can make the rounds giving interviews and giving speeches.

They can't do worse than Biden. And the problem with Biden is he is destroying the Democratic base of voters which will be difficult to recover from in 2028 and beyond.

I don't think it's as clear cut as you make it out to be. It's not showing up in polling.

Dem polling shows there's more support for Biden remaining the nominee. Only 29% of dems polled since the debate are for replacing him. Independents are split, but someone more to the left than Biden risks alienating them. Only 30% of black voters polled are for replacing him.

Access to this page has been denied

If half of independents and a third of your own party think you should step down, you're a pretty shitty candidate.

And even if you are just viewing it from an electoral lens, do you really think it is good for the country to have a guy with huge cognitive issues in office for another 4 years? Seems pretty bad for the country.

There are not huge cognitive issues. This is you being purposefully disingenuous yet again.

You simply can't pass over the black VP for a white guy and expect it not to matter. No Dem can win without heavy support from black women.

You can do whatever it takes to win. And no one gives a shit about Kamala.

This may be true in fact, but I've had several people in casual conversation (hiardresser, neighbor, co-worker) all say Biden looked, sounded and acted like he was somewhat debilitated.

Not many people know what it takes to run the country, but everyone has an older relative who you have to watch out for and keep from harming themselves because they don't know any better. That's the vibe Biden gave off on Thursday, and it'll be damn near impossible to recover from it.

He may not have huge cognitive issues. Hes probably fine to sit on the couch, watch the game with and have some intelligent conversation, but he does not appear mentally fit to be president another four years.

Kind of an ominous story. Maybe he will do what's best and drop out.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...ess-rcna159591

If it truly is a family decision and they tell him he should stay in the race I firmly believe they are more like the power hungry family the right paints them as than I would have believed.

Who fucking cares about a debate? This is the most ridiculous news cycle I've ever seen. I'm mentioned what Trump did during the debate that should immediately disqualify him from ever holding office again, don't forget the crimes!

I got a compromise, make Obama VP and we can have 4 more years of Barry, I'm down like a clown, charlie Brown. Just to let you know the ridiculous hit pieces are coming out, Joe Biden’s Childhood Neighbor: ‘It’s Time To Go’.

I'm sorry, but none of that is remotely true. You need to hold the trifecta, pres,house & senate. You need 50 senators willing to nuke the filibuster, you have 48ish right now. (murkowski is waffling on sides ATM, she could be 49) You pass legislation telling the extreme court to go fuck itself on abortion, regulation and really any crazy right wing mumbo jumbo. Don't forget bri...tipping judges!

Congress can't pass legislation telling the Court to do that. That's not how it works.

Yes, that is how it works.
Overriding judicial decisions, while always an important tool in Congress’s legislative toolbox, has fallen by the wayside over the last two decades.

Congress repeatedly changed the size of the court for political ends and revoked the court’s ability to review a case

When Congress introduced more bills that would limit the court’s power, the court struck down fewer laws

Even where the court has ruled on constitutional grounds, there is often much room left to legislate the boundaries,

Overrides can be passed, These statutory overrides offer a road map for progressives left paralyzed by the court’s new composition

should not lose sight of Congress’s power to temper or reverse existing court decisions.


One key way that Congress can regulate federal courts is by establishing the scope of their
jurisdiction.

If you don't think the debate reinforcing what peoples biggest concern about Biden has been for the last year you aren't paying attention.

He wasn't just bad, he was an absolute disaster.

If you change the size of the court, the other side changes it again when they are in power and you've effectively removed one of the three co-equal branches of government. The court simply rules however the current side in power makes them rule, and if they won't do it on their own, you add enough justices until they do.

There is a natural back-and-forth when SCOTUS thinks Congress has overstepped and Congress disagrees, but ultimately the court has the power to say when that has happened and again, without that, the court can no longer serve it's purpose.

Most of what has happened to the court is in fact Congress's fault, with the increasing politicization (it was always there, but not to the same degree) over the past 40 years of how appointments are handled. This is not a SCOTUS issue, it is a Congressional issue, which ultimately comes back to it being an electorate issue.

When the goal becomes to win the political game at absolutely any cost, you've already destroyed the value of any victory you might achieve.

Congress has zero power to 'reverse existing court decisions'.

It always amazes me how little the average person knows about politics. I find it hilarious you think the supreme Court are a bunch of kings issuing decrees.

They can pass abortion protections which nullifies Dobbs. The Democrats just hasn't found it important.

And I think it's fine to expand the court. Even if both sides do it, it makes every Justice less powerful which is a good thing. Especially since you can just buy them.

I don't think that, and they aren't. There is however, a reason why they have oversight over Congress and, aside from impeachments, not the other way around after they've made decisions.


Might as well just absolish the court if you're going to do that. There's no point in going through the pro forma exercise of keeping it around if you're just going to pretend it doesn't exist in practice anyway.

Saw this on X and checked ChatGPT to verify.

Election Year First Debate Date
2024 June 27, 2024
2020 September 29, 2020
2016 September 26, 2016
2012 October 3, 2012
2008 September 26, 2008
2004 September 30, 2004
2000 October 3, 2000
1996 October 6, 1996

The Democrats knew what was up and needed a date ASAP to get the machine fired up as soon as possible. It’s the right call, Biden hasn’t been in charge and if the DNC wins again, at least they’ll have somebody in office that can be in the actual executive branch and it’s not run by a bunch of unelected extreme left minders.

Id never vote Trumpso ill be voting for Biden regardless but as someone who is fairly liberal, id have strongly considered a moderate non MAGA republican over Biden this election given his current state. (Of course with no teump, its probably been some other maga nut id never vote for anyway)

It's the job of Congress to be oversight for the court too. The Judicial branch does not have complete and total power. Checks and balances work both ways.

There's no point in pretending the courts are anything but a way for wealthy people to buy their way around laws. You don't have to keep up this charade about them being some honorable branch of government that ieeps the otuer branches in check. Clarence will let you dump nuclear waste into the water supply if you take him to Tahiti for a weekend getaway.

I guess if you say it, it makes it true?
Access to this page has been denied
oh for christ sake,
Five times Congress overrode the Supreme Court



They can pass legislation overriding a decision. I don't know what else you want.




Again, not true at all. You can now legally brib...tip judges, destroy regulations, really whatever the extreme king court wants to do. It's a zero-sum game. They have the control now and get to make up whatever asinine rules the con judges can be paid off for.

any republican that would get through would NOT AT ALL be a moderate.

Another post debate poll. Wonder if some of these are coming out internally and that's why Biden is having a family discussion.

#New General Election Poll

�� Trump 45% (+5)
�� Biden 40%
�� Kennedy 10%

One of the most 2020 accurate pollsters

Atlas Intel A+ - 1634 RV - 6/28

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 30, 2024

Saw this on X and checked ChatGPT to verify.

Election Year First Debate Date
2024 June 27, 2024
2020 September 29, 2020
2016 September 26, 2016
2012 October 3, 2012
2008 September 26, 2008
2004 September 30, 2004
2000 October 3, 2000
1996 October 6, 1996

The Democrats knew what was up and needed a date ASAP to get the machine fired up as soon as possible. It’s the right call, Biden hasn’t been in charge and if the DNC wins again, at least they’ll have somebody in office that can be in the actual executive branch and it’s not run by a bunch of unelected extreme left minders.

RFK Jr. is such a clown. After being an independent, flirting with the Libertarians, and showing interest in being Trump's VP, now he says he'd like to be the Dem nom if Biden steps down.

Latest CBS poll on the candidates' mental/cognitive health to serve as President:

Biden 27/72
Trump 50/49

Perception is reality and in what was already a razor-close or losing position for Biden, this is fatal for his campaign.

He probably wins if that is the case. He would get my vote.

I wouldn’t vote for RFK Jr if he was running unopposed.

Since you're going to post this 90 times.....
Name one elected federal judge.
Have you heard of Steve Bannon, Roger Stone or Stephen Miller?
If you're going to post idiotic conspiracy theories from craphole twitter, at least post some names or something? Why isn't Obama behind Biden's presidency? Is he not extreme or left minder enough?

He is WAY better than Trump. It isn't even close. And yes, I realize that is saying something.

I have researched project 2025. I am a firm believer a Trump presidency would fundamentally change our nation in ways we will not recover from.

In an election of 2 and only 2 people, you would vote against Trump.
Let's say the other person running against Trump is old, you would still vote against Trump?

I would vote a corpse over Trump.

If you're asking if Biden has my vote he does and nothing will change that assuming he is the candidate.

That being said I think he loses if he is, but I thought that before the debate

I've read some articles on RFK. He really does not seem out of the norm (certainly not as much as Trump) other than his anti-vax views, and even that he is arguably more rational than Trump.

reuters.com
Who is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and why is he running for president? | AP News

For those that think he is worse than Trump as a whole, I am interested in understanding your POV. Because, if it was between RFK and Trump, I would vote RFK from what I've read.

He’s the liar you don’t know and at any time could leach onto any conspiracy theory he sees fit. He’s as dangerous or more so, because while Trump mostly talks RFK acts on his crazy views. And his crazy views go much further than just vaccines he’s a conspiracy theorist through and through.

It’s pretty telling that even his family denounces him.

hxxps://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/10/10/rfk-jr-launches-independent-2024-run-here-are-all-the-conspiracies-he-promotes-from-vaccines-to-mass-shootings/

He has all the bad qualities of Trump, and then some.

RFK Jr isn't even comparable to Trump. You can take someone with worse qualities and beliefs than Trump, but Trump has a following willing to bend the knee and complete his agenda. There isn't another politician out there with that following and that's what makes him dangerous.

This kind of thinking regarding Trump is very dangerous and flawed. In 2016 he never thought he would win and came in with no plan. He still had people like Kelly, Bolton, etc..who would tell him no. This time around he will 100% surround himself with people who have bad intentions and will be 100% yes men. They also spent a lot of time to pack the courts.

Yes Trump will have stupid ideas like immigrant fight club, etc...and while we all spend time talking about that shit Miller will be removing the Department of Ed and Laura Loomer will be gutting the free press.

So the best answer you can come up with is RFK Jr? We are doomed.

I never said I would vote for Trump either. I’m just saying if the docket is Trump-RFK I see the same guy on the ballot twice. I’ll just stay at home.

I literally never said that.

I was very clear. I am voting for Biden. If RFK was to replace Biden on the dem ticket he would get my vote, as would anyone else the dems run out there.

My point is as wacky as RFK is Trump is far more a threat.

I would love for the same family members endorsing Biden over RFK who they would endorse in an RFK-Trump race.

Then thats a vote for Trump, because his people aren't staying home.

The betting odds have Biden at a 19% chance of winning as of June 30th. Seems bad. (Edit to add: Trump is at a 54.3% chance of victory, so Biden's number is influenced by the idea that he could drop out. Still alarming to me to see that.)

2024 U.S. President

Shouldn't not voting for Trump be a vote for Biden by this logic?

Id say that counts a half vote either way

New CBS News poll

41% of Democrats and 80% of Independents say Joe Biden does not have the mental and cognitive health to serve as President

— umichvoter ��️‍�� (@umichvoter) June 30, 2024

No because the support for Trump is so baked in

If a person that would otherwise vote Dem decides to not vote for a Dem candidate that is effectively a vote for the other party and vice versa.

This is sports team mentality, but from the blue side. I’ve voted in 5 presidential elections and I’ve voted blue 3 times and red twice. Everyone should reject sports team mentality. That is one of the big reasons we are where we are at now.

Conspiracy… :)

They literally held the debate in June rather than Sep/Oct. Far out in advance of the election (first time ever) in order to at least have the option to replace him which they are literally talking about right now on CNN, MSNBC, and The NY Times (if those are okay sources for you). They did it for what reason if not for the health concerns? Just because?

He’s clearly suffered either from one or more TIA events (which are somewhat recoverable from) or he straight up has cognitive decline which would trigger the White House doctor to have him see a neurologist.
(Just like us regular folks do for our parents when they have these sorts of noticeable warning signs.)

Yes, we can only speculate (conspire?) about how that went as I believe the President is protected by medical privacy laws and is under no obligation to tell the public but meh, who cares right?

I think they had it early because his poll numbers were in the shitter and they hoped it would give him a boost.

His campaign has been run poorly although it's tough when your candidate has dementia. Also when party leadership likely finds it beneficial for Republicans to re-take the White House so they don't really care.

I said stop with the conspiracy theories. Not one thing you said makes any sense at all. You aren't a doctor, I don't care what you think. Do you think trump is suffering from any mental decline or any disease, doc? Go speculate somewhere else. Some very fine people are saying bullshit. Why would Biden do a debate early if he knew he was going to fail?. It's rhetorical, no need to respond.

Chicken little, you forgot about the good poll, which doesn't matter.


Today's YouGov/CBS Poll:

Should Biden stay in the race? YES, 55%-45%

Should TRUMP stay in the race?
NO, 54-46%

Trump numbers just dont really matter. Hes getting his votes regardless. Biden has to get more votes. And he doesn't appear capable of that. He will likely only go down as we get closer. A replacement may start a bit lower but actually has a chance to go up and win

Voting 3rd party in a 2 party system is a wasted vote, regardless of what rational those who do so want to use. Those are the mostly the people I'm looking at. If you feel the other party's candidate is better in a particular election there's nothing wrong with that.

I was mostly speaking of the mindset of not voting or voting 3rd party. It's not a circular reasoning fallacy, which was kind of what was being implied.

The funny thing is, Trump has shown more mental decline than Biden on the campaign trail. He's had multiple short circuits, can't name people, mixes people up, etc. He had a good day (for him) at the debate and Biden didn't so most aren't paying attention to the words Trump was actually saying, most of which didn't make any sense or had no meaning.

I am not a fan of the medical diagnosis everyone wants to make, but it has been speculated on several credible sites they scheduled it so far in advance for this very scenerio.

This is true but it doesnt matter. Trump could go up there in nothing but his underwear and answer every question by talking about the mating habits of sea creatures and his supporters will applaud and vote for him.

Compared to the option there's really not much rational choice.

I don't buy at all that "Biden lost the debate," frankly. Trump lied almost constantly. Being wrong is literally the only way you can lose a debate.

For the most part, I do. :)

In any event, since you called me a doctor (Im not), if your mother or father showed signs of mental decline, I would strongly encourage you to have them see a neurologist. There’s nothing to be ashamed of and it wouldn’t hurt. Don’t ignore the signs because you aren’t qualified to treat it.

Taking the threat of fascism seriously.

Camp David: Biden family spent morning not having a summit but in hair and makeup for a shoot with Annie Leibovitz, Vogue photog who shot Biden/Obama/Clinton in March then suggested doing something informal with the Bidens. Family suggested this week, bc Hunter & family in town.

— Katie Rogers (@katierogers) June 30, 2024

Looks like they did a lot of discussions this weekend and came up with a strategy.

Just a moment...

Below is what Joe's team is hoping for. Sure, if below happens, I can maybe see it work out. In the markets, it's called "pricing to perfection", there's a lot of if's & maybe's. In the meantime, there's going to be continued angst, turmoil, second guessing etc. for the next 2 months.


Apparently, Joe is keeping the prep team. That's ridiculous. Joe is too nice. At least bring in some fresh faces (Carville?) who can provide an outsider pov on the Sep prep. (And for God's sake Joe, learn to close your mouth while Trump is talking so you don't look like a senile Grandpa).

He needs to do townhalls, interviews, take questions with the media. Get out there interacting with voters like when he went to the Waffle House. All of this within the hours of 10-4 of course.

First headline I see - "Biden's family reportedly tells him to stay in presidential race as blame shifts to advisors."

Of course.

I have been really intrigued by the #NeverTrump wing of the old GOP since 2016, and Tim Miller is among the most lucid among them for my money.

hxxps://substack.com/home/post/p-146154328

(sorry the actual link broke the forum)

I am not sold that replacing Biden in some subterfuge is a viable plan, but I pretty much endorse him here. Stop pretending he's just great.

He isn't able to and thats the problem

Not arguing against Tim's premise, but I will say that I added a study note for "Gish Gallop" MONTHS ago (Brandolini's Law, too).

are there any Denny's left?

Pelosi: Some health experts think Trump has dementia | CNN Politics

Some very fine people say trump has dementia!

Barring a Trump medical emegency I think Trump vs Biden is over.

The GOP might as well just hand the country over to Orban and be done with it.

He probably does but it doesnt matter. The same rules just dont apply to him. Seriously its like some of you have never read or talked to a trump supporter. He is like jesus to them.

A woman I know at my gym, who I actually like as a person is one of them. She shared texts with me between her and a friend the day after the debate, with exultations such as "Go Donnie Go" and "Yes, Big Daddy T"

Are you fucking kidding me? And she knows I detest Trump and am not much fonder of Biden, but she was giddy since she thought that debate handed "Big Daddy T" the election. He can do no wrong with his base.

Still funny still appropriate

I know right? No one cared about Mitch blanking out several times.

All reps get a pass from problems or bad behavior. But you stain one dress and it's trail this trial that

I accept that Presidents should have immunity for official stuff, makes sense to me. But is there good precedence or case law that lower courts or SCOTUS can determine if an action/act is ‘official’.

Trump is incredibly unpopular and would be beaten by anyone who wasn't halfway in the grave. I don't understand why people keep trying to make Trump out to be some popular politician. If the Democrats gave a shit, he wouldn't even be a factor.

Trump is not incredibly unpopular and he's currently polling above any Dem. What's his absolute floor, 60-65 million votes and 235 electoral votes?

This is unpopular. Any semi-competent politician would beat him.

Donald Trump : Favorability Polls | FiveThirtyEight

He's still polling 1-3 points ahead of everyone named.

I would hope he would be polling better than people who most of the country don't know and haven't spent hundreds of millions on a campaign. The fact people are 1-3 points behind Trump with no campaign is a sign of how weak Trump is.

I know you got burned by riding hard for Biden but this is just cope. Trump is a deeply unpopular candidate who has seen his handpicked candidates lose over and over in important swing states.

The aspect your missing is how popular and beloved he is by that 40+%. He is extremely popular and revered with a huge portion of this country.

Considering we've already seen Act I and are well-versed in the kind of person he is, I'd say he's polling about 25-30% above where any candidate should be. On those terms, he's incredibly popular. He's a known quantity and still polling as if he's a run-of-the-mill candidate running against a flawed incumbent.

See, even that statement is over-broad. There are somethings a President can do that others cannot, but there has always been legal limits to the Presidential powers. What I can't figure out is does this ruling really mean there is no legal limit to what a President can do in his "official capacity?" I mean, it is illegal for President to use the military as a police force under the Posse Comitatus act. If a President has complete immunity, couldn't he order the military to say shut down New York during the election? He is the Commander and Chief, so that would be under his official powers. I mean, they have already gave the example of having Seal Team Six assassinate a political rival. How is commanding the military into action not an official power? And if it is, what exactly are the limits?

And those that dislike him are concentrated a handful of Blue States. Trump probably will lose the actual vote count, but he could still win the electoral college by a landslide.

Well, if they don't have a good definition (or precedence or case law) for "official", then they better get one ... definitions matter :)

And lost by 74 electoral points to a historically bad politician.

This is just not true. He lost PA, MI, MN, AZ, NV, and even fucking Georgia in 2020. Some of those states weren't particularly close. And Trump has run his handpicked candidates in those states and they all got trounced.

I swear 2016 has screwed with everyone's perception. Trump's only victory was over one of the worst Presidential candidates in history and every election after that has been a disaster for him and his sycophants.

you're ignoring the part where trump's candidates are losing a LOT of elctions lately every single time. Conservative media loves to ignore/spin that

What a time to be alive when everyone is an historically bad politician.

Really going to argue that Hillary was a good politician?

Trump, personally, has always outperformed his polls.
MAGA, without Trump, has underperformed polls.
Trump hasn't been on a ballot since J6.
Trump hasn't been on a ballot since Dobbs.
Trump is polling well enough to win right now.
There are rumors of some pretty serious dysfunction in the GOP ground game.
Biden is a weaker candidate than 4 years ago when it was close.
Trump does not seem all there compared to 4 years ago.
Both guys are old enough that there could be a medical incident in the next 5 months.
Trump has to be sentenced in NY, and he tends to react poorly to stress.

Basically, I have no idea what's going to happen.

Fuck Taft!

Btw, the idea of a floor challenge for Biden is not happening. They are going to officially nominate him well before convention by "virtual roll call" mid-July. They are having to so that because of shenanigans in Ohio, if they wait till the convention, he wouldn't have been on the ballot there.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

Trump got more votes than any incumbent ever. I wouldn’t call a guy who got 74 million votes unpopular. Polarizing is a better word.

Losing New Hampshire would mean Biden has to take either Nevada, Arizona, or Georgia which he is down big in. Also kind of surprised how low RFK Jr is in this poll. I'd figure NH out of all states would be one he did a little better than normal.




Ohio fixed that last month. It's not necessary.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...all-rcna154752