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They overnight are going to shift to every story being about Biden or Trump dropping out of the race because of health, mental issues, legal issues, etc...
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All they have to do then is let them talk and record it.
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I won't be voting for him either. |
I really can't see anything generating the excitement of a regular presidential campaign. Trump can say anything at this point, and still won't be crazier than anything he has already said. Biden could set himself on fire, and he still won't garner the attention of Trump. Really, it is mostly courtroom drama at this point that will be the ratings driver, and even that more and more looks like it will be pushed till after the election.
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The old GOP Mantra: "Government doesn't work, and we can fix it."
The new GOP Mantra: "Government doesn't work, and we're going to keep breaking it." |
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Well why wouldn't they? I mean, getting a fucking worthless two faced p.o.s. like Haley to be the November alternative to Biden is a wet dream for the lunatic left. They win either way. |
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Don't underestimate how easy it is to manipulate the viewers of the "news" channels. Both sides of the news spectrum will hype the "election for our national survival" aspect, both will portray their choice as fighting an uphill battle, both will fan whatever ember (much less flame) they can find in order to drive interest while trying to drive turnout. I don't honestly know how anyone watches any of them at this point. |
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Pretty much ever poll, for what it is worth, has Haley destroying Biden. |
Yeah I don't think it's about 'they want Haley because Biden'll win' kind of thing for the media, I think they just want the drama and controversy of a competitive primary. It's rare that we don't get that for one side or the other, occasionally both.
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I'm actively considering not following the news at all until after the election.
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Already there. It's just not worth it.
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Let me know if you find a way to get rid of the commercials and mailers. It's going to be brutal. |
CNN interviewing a Trump supporter. Lady says she supports Trump because when he says he is going to do something he has a plan for doing it. The alternate reality these people live in is staggering.
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dola- all these networks are trying to hard to make it seem like it could be close somehow. They are twisting themselves into a pretzel with ways it can happen.
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The people with the exit polls on Twitter doing the same thing. Lots of "she could win" vibes going.
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Even if she won (she won't), New Hampshire is a tiny, weird state that does not reflect the electorate all that much.
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What a lot of them are saying, and I do not agree, is that if Haley wins NH it somehow will show the GOP Trump isn't invincible and she will pick up momentum and chance the tide. |
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Yeah, coming from Michigan, I'm going to wish I lived off-Grid or something. |
If she gets within 15 points I'd be surprised. Not shocked since it's NH, but surprised. And agree that NH doesn't mean much for how the rest of the GOP will vote.
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I don't think even Haley has delusions of winning the primary. She's just in it to be the "told you so" candidate if Trump loses. Puts her in a decent spot for 2028.
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Her winning New Hampshire would keep her in the money to keep running till South Carolina. If she pulled off an upset there (that is a fully open primary), it could snowball. More likely though is if she wins or comes close here, the MAGA people are going to become hyper-energized and she loses South Carolina even worse than she would have before. Iowa numbers were pretty low. A win here would guarantee huge MAGA turnout in South Carolina.
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Shes toast. You can see it all over Kornakis face. I'm sure the higher ups are telling him not to point out the obvious but you can see it all over him.
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Wasserman called it at 7:20, the AP and NYT around 8.
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CNN just called it
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This sounds an awful lot like a concession speech from Haley
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Joe Biden won the Democratic Primary even though he wasn't on the ballot.
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Trump taking a few shots at Chris Sununu and getting booed pretty badly for it.
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She did better than I expected, but if she can't win in NH there's no plausible path forward. How long will her donors fund her vanity campaign?
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dola
Voters are dumb and inexplicable.
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That health care plan of his is gonna come any day now. |
Still rooting for you Nikki. Hope you stick it out at least through Feb 3.
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This is the idiot I was talking about above. Just total disconnect from reality. |
Notice the couple of things she left out - the "who's" and "what's."
If I'm reading between the lines, maybe she meant that perhaps DeSantis wasn't giving her as cruel and/or entertaining a list of "who's" and "what's" as Trump. |
I like all the articles that say how this is Trump's party now. Like, has that not been obvious for a better part of a decade? If anything Haley outperformed expectations last night
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That being said, I think there's a non-insignificant amount of Haley donors who are funding this on the miniscule .000001% chance she might push to the end to build enough of a brand for a third party run. I actually think Christie would have been the perfect person for that, but I think there are some hoping she'd risk career suicide (or real murder) to do it.
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There's definitely an inner circle mentality who have been watching numbers closely for some time, and for whom the actual outcome amounts to just a minor refinement of built-in expectations. That's me, and many in this thread. Of course Trump won... perhaps by a shade less than I might have guessed, but of course he won.
My wife is one of the TONS of people, including many who are at least fairly politically engaged, who just aren't into data or deep dive news analysis. She sat on twitter well into the night night watching the incremental NH results come in, speculating how Haley might be able to get there... at 7% reporting then 18%, and 26% and so on, without end. I told her when Wasserman said "I've seen enough" that I had seen enough (and that I didn't care what the final margin was), but she was there 'til the bitter end thinking Trump could lose if only those last (100-x)% of the NH voters could come through. And, I'll insist, she's neither a dummy nor an outlier. Actual events still really shape impressions, no matter how much as the data-embedded-class like us can't imagine that. So, I'm predicting that the real determinant whether she continues won't be her desire to spend more time with the family, or her personal belief that she can still win, it will be... as it always is... money. And a loss in NH means the money will dry up. Her not even contesting Nevada is baked in for us, but will sound like news to others. She's toast, and I think it's honestly likely she lose funding to where she won't even be able to remain credibly active through her home state SC primary. |
Superpayaseria Crystalroc will be on the ballot in Nevada.
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Jon Stewart is returning to host the Daily Show on Mondays through this election cycle. So that's good.
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Was Lord Buckethead not available? |
Based on the decline in air incidents over the past 20 years, DEI has been an incredible success and we should all be thankful.
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In fairness, Trump lists his health care plans on his site (you probably won't like the plans). Biden doesn't even bother with having an issues section anymore. Just selling dark Brandon coffee or whatever. You can complain that Trump voters don't care about actual issues, but the Democrats aren't even pretending to care. |
Not great news for Biden here. Curious to see what role RFK Jr plays with the youth vote and whether Biden's losses are going to Trump or end up with RFK Jr or just not voting at all.
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The poll oversampled people over 45 by 3-5% with that MOE favoring Biden almost 2 to 1.
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Let's be honest, he likely had nothing to do with crafting these plans, someone else did and told his supporters would love him for it. |
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It's just going to be so humiliating when Haley endorses Trump.
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Would love it if she just drops out and doesn't endorse him, but she will likely kiss the ring anyway. between tim scott and her, not sure which has been more humiliated more. it would be great if both were out of SC politics along with graham |
A young Trump supporter was kicked out of Trump's victory celebration after he posted a picture of himself and Alina Habba at the party.
Earlier that day Habba had told a judge she was sick and needed to take precautions after a covid exposure so the trial was postponed. I can't wait to hear what the judge says about this. |
Yeah this judge doesn't fool around-hope he lets her sit in jail for a night or two
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I saw it was a staffer. |
Navarro gets 4 months. I’m sure he’ll be on the bannnon timeline.
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I was listening to NPR this morning, as I do most mornings, and noticed something. They never seem to refer to Biden’s policies and decisions as Biden’s policies and decisions. They refer to it as the “Biden Administration’s” policies and decisions. Then I was thinking back to Obama and Trump and from what I remember, media of all types didn’t do the same thing nearly as often.
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And McMaster, and Mace, and Timmons... alas... |
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defense tried to say he had accepted responsibility for his crime and should get a reduction in time when he has never to date accepted any responsibilty for what he did. And he won't have biden to pardon him. hope they can use this as a guideline when bannon gets sentenced for this. |
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yeah sadly we have a lot of MAGA lunatics here in SC |
Trump mad Haley won't conceded and is pushing the RNC to just name him the nominee is on brand, funny, and ironic at the same time.
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It's kind of insane that no reporters are asking Trump or Haley about their connections to Boeing.
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Do you think it would make a difference or matter to anyone? |
Outside of a few select outlets, the 4th estate is dead. No one's going to ask questions that would threaten their access.
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After seeing Trump on the campaign trail the past couple weeks I'm 100% with Joe Scarborough that Trump's team is keeping him away from the debate stage to hide his decline. He's lost a few steps from 2015-16.
Confusing Haley with Pelosi is the most obvious case and one that's not easy to explain away like they have with the Obama/Biden mixups. He's definitely slurring his words more often and sometimes struggles to speak. He's not as bad as they make Biden out to be, but he's definitely not the same guy that entered the white house. |
Interesting thought process. I don't agree with his chances but I'd be happy if there was a "real" third party threat to actually win the presidency. But probably won't really be a real threat but more of just hurting Joe more than Trump.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/28/polit...els/index.html Quote:
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The U.S. will never have just a "real" third party. We have seen it is much easier to just take over one of the existing parties with a coalition of single issue voters. If there ever was a decision to move beyond D's and R's, I think it is much more likely that we have four or five "real" parties in addition to those two parties based on those single issues.
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I saw a game-theory explanation of why the US system does not allow a third party to thrive long term. I forget the ins and outs, but the short of it is that it is always more rational to divide into two groups. Even when you have an issue like slavery that temporarily creates a new party, you quickly end up back with two survivors.
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dola: I think that at this point, Haley's best bet is to just keep attacking Trump gloves off style. If she's got the Koch money behind her, she can keep going as long as she likes. And her only chance is if he basically becomes incapacitated, and considering how he's responding to her, there's a better chance of that if she keeps being one of his stressors.
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She does have the potential of leading the post-MAGA GOP after a Trump loss, but to do that she has to be courageous enough to never endorse and I doubt she'll hold out.
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Interesting interview from Penn Jillette on why he is no longer a Libertarian and his view of Trump.
https://www.cracked.com/amp/article_...t-all-out.html |
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His observation that Trump has never made or laughed at a joke and tying a sense of humor to empathy is interesting. |
Thought so as well. It is believable.
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At least Trump isn't having Mitch McConnell-level freeze-ups yet. |
If we get debates in the general election they're going to be bonkers.
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I can't stand Cowherd, but this time he is dead on. Unfortunately I don't believe that is his real opinion. I don't think he has real opinions. He just puts out whatver will piss people off the most to drive clicks/gain attention. Cowherd, Skip Bayless, Stephen A Smith, I would rather listen to static than any of those morons.
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You should go to predictit, bet on Trump, and double your money: PredictIt
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i'll see your polls and raise you Rainmaker;
https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1752800977587929236 in other words too close to tell if there's a trend or not |
Get your bets in before Taylor Swift makes her endorsement.
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I think as it becomes a more binary choice between the two, people are just going to find the constant crazy of a Trump presidency too exhausting.
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It isn't going to be binary. I don't think Robert Kennedy is going to pull 20%+ like he is in some polls, but he is going to hit close to 5%. Maybe a little more. With these margins, it will be significant.
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I've seen some stats folks talk about how Trump winning the popular vote and Biden winning the EC is a distinct possibility. Honestly, that would be the funniest outcome. |
I'm very curious to see where RFK ends up. He's been pretty quiet and running a baffling campaign. But polls have shown he hurts Trump more than Biden.
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Fair point on RFK but I feel like he would get a lot of never trumper types. I think very few Ds or Is vote him.
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If Taylor Swift were to enter the race i bet she would get more than a few electoral votes. BTW she turns 35 this year. |
Erm...
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"Fair point on RFK but I feel like he would get a lot of never trumper types. I think very few Ds or Is vote him."
It seems like the polls agree, but the Trump financial supporters don't. Tim Mellon, who has given $20 million to Trump's Super Pac just gave $15 million to RFK Jr. Super Pac. All of his money is coming from the Right. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk |
Mellon is a moron trust fund baby. A lot of those folks just throw away money on garbage candidates because they are inherently dumb.
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That would be damn scary for this country if after everything Trump has put it through since leaving office, more people would vote for him. |
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There's actually another path to the "winning the popular vote": his vote total could be lower than 4 yrs ago BUT Biden's could be even more lower. I'm not predicting that outcome mind you (I'm convinced he has no chance of winning, due to the "Hillary effect"), just tossing as a possible path |
This is some cynical but probably good political strategy right here. Adam Schiff is running ads claiming that Steve Garvey, a far-right Republican, is a "leading candidate" in attempt to boost him in the race. He is actually fighting for second with Katie Porter, and Schiff doesn't want to face Porter in a run-off. He would kill Garvey head-to-head. Personally I was disappointed Schiff ran. I was hoping Katie would breeze into the Senate. Heck, I would love to make her and her white-board President and Vice President.
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Holy crap, that IS "that" Steve Garvey.
I'd completely forgotten he was in politics now. |
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Sure seems like the GOP is moving to an agreement that states have a right to secede.
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This seems to be the analysis I've seen. That both Trump and Biden would receive less votes and voter turnout will be down considerably. Biden would see his margins in blue states like California, New York, and Illinois shrink significantly. It's not enough to put any of those states remotely in play, but even a couple percentage point shift in a high-population state is a lot toward the popular vote tally. There's also a belief that he'll lose Nevada due to demographic shifts. And Michigan is in deep trouble due to its high Arab population. |
January gets another job report way above what was expected, nearly twice as high as projections. Wages are up 4.5% over last year as well. With consumer confidence also getting higher and higher, it is no surprise that polls are trending back toward Biden.
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I think the GOP has realized going after Hunter is a losing proposition. I haven't heard a peep about him lately. It's all about the border now.
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Yep. Brown people bad. It’s the standard GOP boogeyman ploy |
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They have so few things to campaign on now that the economy is good, abortion rights are more important to women voters than they expected, and they can't find one real impeachable thing on hunter and joe. So its down to the border and making up stuff about how horrible it is. i even saw recent chatter on putting a wall on our northern border too so those dangerous Canadians can't get in. |
Gas has been collapsing in price around me. Things seem a lot better at the grocery store too. Those kinds of things are probably the most important factors in this election if they continue.
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I wish I could say the same. Gas was around the $2.70 range and now it's back over $3 bucks. |
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