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Lathum 01-23-2024 11:46 AM

They overnight are going to shift to every story being about Biden or Trump dropping out of the race because of health, mental issues, legal issues, etc...

bronconick 01-23-2024 12:51 PM

All they have to do then is let them talk and record it.

RainMaker 01-23-2024 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho (Post 3424364)
You say that as if that's a point of differentiation with Party A, culpable of aiding and abetting many other genocides over the years, to say nothing of offering a home for white supremacists, a leader who copies rhetoric from Hitler, and whatever Stephen Miller was up to in the White House.


I won't be voting for him either.

GrantDawg 01-23-2024 01:12 PM

I really can't see anything generating the excitement of a regular presidential campaign. Trump can say anything at this point, and still won't be crazier than anything he has already said. Biden could set himself on fire, and he still won't garner the attention of Trump. Really, it is mostly courtroom drama at this point that will be the ratings driver, and even that more and more looks like it will be pushed till after the election.

SirFozzie 01-23-2024 01:48 PM

The old GOP Mantra: "Government doesn't work, and we can fix it."

The new GOP Mantra: "Government doesn't work, and we're going to keep breaking it."

JonInMiddleGA 01-23-2024 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3424370)
The big sale here is that Haley is going to pull some kind d of miracle and pull such a huge number of independents that she can somehow win or make it close.


Well why wouldn't they? I mean, getting a fucking worthless two faced p.o.s. like Haley to be the November alternative to Biden is a wet dream for the lunatic left. They win either way.

JonInMiddleGA 01-23-2024 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3424391)
I really can't see anything generating the excitement of a regular presidential campaign.


Don't underestimate how easy it is to manipulate the viewers of the "news" channels.

Both sides of the news spectrum will hype the "election for our national survival" aspect, both will portray their choice as fighting an uphill battle, both will fan whatever ember (much less flame) they can find in order to drive interest while trying to drive turnout.

I don't honestly know how anyone watches any of them at this point.

Lathum 01-23-2024 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA (Post 3424401)
Well why wouldn't they? I mean, getting a fucking worthless two faced p.o.s. like Haley to be the November alternative to Biden is a wet dream for the lunatic left. They win either way.


Pretty much ever poll, for what it is worth, has Haley destroying Biden.

Brian Swartz 01-23-2024 02:22 PM

Yeah I don't think it's about 'they want Haley because Biden'll win' kind of thing for the media, I think they just want the drama and controversy of a competitive primary. It's rare that we don't get that for one side or the other, occasionally both.

Kodos 01-23-2024 03:02 PM

I'm actively considering not following the news at all until after the election.

Ghost Econ 01-23-2024 03:46 PM

Already there. It's just not worth it.

RainMaker 01-23-2024 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kodos (Post 3424408)
I'm actively considering not following the news at all until after the election.


Let me know if you find a way to get rid of the commercials and mailers. It's going to be brutal.

Lathum 01-23-2024 05:40 PM

CNN interviewing a Trump supporter. Lady says she supports Trump because when he says he is going to do something he has a plan for doing it. The alternate reality these people live in is staggering.

Lathum 01-23-2024 05:41 PM

dola- all these networks are trying to hard to make it seem like it could be close somehow. They are twisting themselves into a pretzel with ways it can happen.

GrantDawg 01-23-2024 05:46 PM

The people with the exit polls on Twitter doing the same thing. Lots of "she could win" vibes going.

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RainMaker 01-23-2024 05:55 PM

Even if she won (she won't), New Hampshire is a tiny, weird state that does not reflect the electorate all that much.

Lathum 01-23-2024 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3424433)
Even if she won (she won't), New Hampshire is a tiny, weird state that does not reflect the electorate all that much.


What a lot of them are saying, and I do not agree, is that if Haley wins NH it somehow will show the GOP Trump isn't invincible and she will pick up momentum and chance the tide.

bronconick 01-23-2024 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3424423)
Let me know if you find a way to get rid of the commercials and mailers. It's going to be brutal.


Yeah, coming from Michigan, I'm going to wish I lived off-Grid or something.

Ksyrup 01-23-2024 06:09 PM

If she gets within 15 points I'd be surprised. Not shocked since it's NH, but surprised. And agree that NH doesn't mean much for how the rest of the GOP will vote.

RainMaker 01-23-2024 06:11 PM

I don't think even Haley has delusions of winning the primary. She's just in it to be the "told you so" candidate if Trump loses. Puts her in a decent spot for 2028.

GrantDawg 01-23-2024 06:23 PM

Her winning New Hampshire would keep her in the money to keep running till South Carolina. If she pulled off an upset there (that is a fully open primary), it could snowball. More likely though is if she wins or comes close here, the MAGA people are going to become hyper-energized and she loses South Carolina even worse than she would have before. Iowa numbers were pretty low. A win here would guarantee huge MAGA turnout in South Carolina.

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Lathum 01-23-2024 06:53 PM

Shes toast. You can see it all over Kornakis face. I'm sure the higher ups are telling him not to point out the obvious but you can see it all over him.

bronconick 01-23-2024 07:04 PM

Wasserman called it at 7:20, the AP and NYT around 8.

Lathum 01-23-2024 07:18 PM

CNN just called it

Lathum 01-23-2024 07:21 PM

This sounds an awful lot like a concession speech from Haley

GrantDawg 01-23-2024 07:37 PM

Joe Biden won the Democratic Primary even though he wasn't on the ballot.

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Lathum 01-23-2024 08:26 PM

Trump taking a few shots at Chris Sununu and getting booed pretty badly for it.

JPhillips 01-23-2024 09:27 PM

She did better than I expected, but if she can't win in NH there's no plausible path forward. How long will her donors fund her vanity campaign?

JPhillips 01-23-2024 09:36 PM

dola

Voters are dumb and inexplicable.


cuervo72 01-23-2024 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3424429)
CNN interviewing a Trump supporter. Lady says she supports Trump because when he says he is going to do something he has a plan for doing it. The alternate reality these people live in is staggering.


That health care plan of his is gonna come any day now.

Edward64 01-23-2024 11:21 PM

Still rooting for you Nikki. Hope you stick it out at least through Feb 3.

Lathum 01-24-2024 05:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3424429)
CNN interviewing a Trump supporter. Lady says she supports Trump because when he says he is going to do something he has a plan for doing it. The alternate reality these people live in is staggering.


Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3424453)
dola

Voters are dumb and inexplicable.



This is the idiot I was talking about above. Just total disconnect from reality.

Ksyrup 01-24-2024 07:52 AM

Notice the couple of things she left out - the "who's" and "what's."

If I'm reading between the lines, maybe she meant that perhaps DeSantis wasn't giving her as cruel and/or entertaining a list of "who's" and "what's" as Trump.

Ghost Econ 01-24-2024 11:05 AM

I like all the articles that say how this is Trump's party now. Like, has that not been obvious for a better part of a decade? If anything Haley outperformed expectations last night

Ghost Econ 01-24-2024 11:18 AM

That being said, I think there's a non-insignificant amount of Haley donors who are funding this on the miniscule .000001% chance she might push to the end to build enough of a brand for a third party run. I actually think Christie would have been the perfect person for that, but I think there are some hoping she'd risk career suicide (or real murder) to do it.

QuikSand 01-24-2024 11:18 AM

There's definitely an inner circle mentality who have been watching numbers closely for some time, and for whom the actual outcome amounts to just a minor refinement of built-in expectations. That's me, and many in this thread. Of course Trump won... perhaps by a shade less than I might have guessed, but of course he won.

My wife is one of the TONS of people, including many who are at least fairly politically engaged, who just aren't into data or deep dive news analysis. She sat on twitter well into the night night watching the incremental NH results come in, speculating how Haley might be able to get there... at 7% reporting then 18%, and 26% and so on, without end. I told her when Wasserman said "I've seen enough" that I had seen enough (and that I didn't care what the final margin was), but she was there 'til the bitter end thinking Trump could lose if only those last (100-x)% of the NH voters could come through.

And, I'll insist, she's neither a dummy nor an outlier. Actual events still really shape impressions, no matter how much as the data-embedded-class like us can't imagine that.

So, I'm predicting that the real determinant whether she continues won't be her desire to spend more time with the family, or her personal belief that she can still win, it will be... as it always is... money. And a loss in NH means the money will dry up. Her not even contesting Nevada is baked in for us, but will sound like news to others. She's toast, and I think it's honestly likely she lose funding to where she won't even be able to remain credibly active through her home state SC primary.

QuikSand 01-24-2024 11:25 AM

Superpayaseria Crystalroc will be on the ballot in Nevada.

cuervo72 01-24-2024 11:39 AM


Kodos 01-24-2024 02:20 PM

Jon Stewart is returning to host the Daily Show on Mondays through this election cycle. So that's good.

bronconick 01-24-2024 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3424490)
Superpayaseria Crystalroc will be on the ballot in Nevada.


Was Lord Buckethead not available?

JPhillips 01-24-2024 04:39 PM

Based on the decline in air incidents over the past 20 years, DEI has been an incredible success and we should all be thankful.

RainMaker 01-24-2024 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuervo72 (Post 3424454)
That health care plan of his is gonna come any day now.


In fairness, Trump lists his health care plans on his site (you probably won't like the plans). Biden doesn't even bother with having an issues section anymore. Just selling dark Brandon coffee or whatever.

You can complain that Trump voters don't care about actual issues, but the Democrats aren't even pretending to care.

RainMaker 01-24-2024 06:35 PM

Not great news for Biden here. Curious to see what role RFK Jr plays with the youth vote and whether Biden's losses are going to Trump or end up with RFK Jr or just not voting at all.




Ghost Econ 01-24-2024 07:40 PM

The poll oversampled people over 45 by 3-5% with that MOE favoring Biden almost 2 to 1.

BYU 14 01-24-2024 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3424539)
In fairness, Trump lists his health care plans on his site (you probably won't like the plans)..


Let's be honest, he likely had nothing to do with crafting these plans, someone else did and told his supporters would love him for it.

Lathum 01-25-2024 07:44 AM


Ghost Econ 01-25-2024 07:49 AM



The Simpsons - No Homers Club - YouTube

JPhillips 01-25-2024 09:21 AM

It's just going to be so humiliating when Haley endorses Trump.

Thomkal 01-25-2024 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3424581)
It's just going to be so humiliating when Haley endorses Trump.



Would love it if she just drops out and doesn't endorse him, but she will likely kiss the ring anyway. between tim scott and her, not sure which has been more humiliated more. it would be great if both were out of SC politics along with graham

JPhillips 01-25-2024 09:41 AM

A young Trump supporter was kicked out of Trump's victory celebration after he posted a picture of himself and Alina Habba at the party.

Earlier that day Habba had told a judge she was sick and needed to take precautions after a covid exposure so the trial was postponed. I can't wait to hear what the judge says about this.

Thomkal 01-25-2024 09:56 AM

Yeah this judge doesn't fool around-hope he lets her sit in jail for a night or two

Lathum 01-25-2024 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3424587)
A young Trump supporter was kicked out of Trump's victory celebration after he posted a picture of himself and Alina Habba at the party.

Earlier that day Habba had told a judge she was sick and needed to take precautions after a covid exposure so the trial was postponed. I can't wait to hear what the judge says about this.


I saw it was a staffer.

Lathum 01-25-2024 11:55 AM

Navarro gets 4 months. I’m sure he’ll be on the bannnon timeline.

Schmidty 01-25-2024 12:05 PM

I was listening to NPR this morning, as I do most mornings, and noticed something. They never seem to refer to Biden’s policies and decisions as Biden’s policies and decisions. They refer to it as the “Biden Administration’s” policies and decisions. Then I was thinking back to Obama and Trump and from what I remember, media of all types didn’t do the same thing nearly as often.

Ghost Econ 01-25-2024 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3424584)
Would love it if she just drops out and doesn't endorse him, but she will likely kiss the ring anyway. between tim scott and her, not sure which has been more humiliated more. it would be great if both were out of SC politics along with graham


And McMaster, and Mace, and Timmons... alas...

Thomkal 01-25-2024 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3424597)
Navarro gets 4 months. I’m sure he’ll be on the bannnon timeline.



defense tried to say he had accepted responsibility for his crime and should get a reduction in time when he has never to date accepted any responsibilty for what he did. And he won't have biden to pardon him. hope they can use this as a guideline when bannon gets sentenced for this.

Thomkal 01-25-2024 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ (Post 3424600)
And McMaster, and Mace, and Timmons... alas...



yeah sadly we have a lot of MAGA lunatics here in SC

Atocep 01-25-2024 08:22 PM

Trump mad Haley won't conceded and is pushing the RNC to just name him the nominee is on brand, funny, and ironic at the same time.

RainMaker 01-25-2024 10:40 PM

It's kind of insane that no reporters are asking Trump or Haley about their connections to Boeing.

Sweed 01-26-2024 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3424703)
It's kind of insane that no reporters are asking Trump or Haley about their connections to Boeing.


Do you think it would make a difference or matter to anyone?

flere-imsaho 01-27-2024 03:09 PM

Outside of a few select outlets, the 4th estate is dead. No one's going to ask questions that would threaten their access.

Atocep 01-28-2024 07:12 PM

After seeing Trump on the campaign trail the past couple weeks I'm 100% with Joe Scarborough that Trump's team is keeping him away from the debate stage to hide his decline. He's lost a few steps from 2015-16.

Confusing Haley with Pelosi is the most obvious case and one that's not easy to explain away like they have with the Obama/Biden mixups. He's definitely slurring his words more often and sometimes struggles to speak. He's not as bad as they make Biden out to be, but he's definitely not the same guy that entered the white house.

Edward64 01-29-2024 05:26 AM

Interesting thought process. I don't agree with his chances but I'd be happy if there was a "real" third party threat to actually win the presidency. But probably won't really be a real threat but more of just hurting Joe more than Trump.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/28/polit...els/index.html
Quote:

Sen. Joe Manchin says he “absolutely” can see himself as president.

Privately, the West Virginia Democrat has told people that a Joe Biden health scare or a Donald Trump conviction could give him an opening to run as an independent this year.

In public, during stops in states such as New Hampshire, South Carolina and Georgia, Manchin says he believes there’s a role for him as a national icon in the “fiscally responsible and socially compassionate” middle, comparable with the role Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders plays for the progressive left.

miami_fan 01-29-2024 10:33 AM

The U.S. will never have just a "real" third party. We have seen it is much easier to just take over one of the existing parties with a coalition of single issue voters. If there ever was a decision to move beyond D's and R's, I think it is much more likely that we have four or five "real" parties in addition to those two parties based on those single issues.

albionmoonlight 01-29-2024 10:37 AM

I saw a game-theory explanation of why the US system does not allow a third party to thrive long term. I forget the ins and outs, but the short of it is that it is always more rational to divide into two groups. Even when you have an issue like slavery that temporarily creates a new party, you quickly end up back with two survivors.

albionmoonlight 01-29-2024 10:40 AM

dola: I think that at this point, Haley's best bet is to just keep attacking Trump gloves off style. If she's got the Koch money behind her, she can keep going as long as she likes. And her only chance is if he basically becomes incapacitated, and considering how he's responding to her, there's a better chance of that if she keeps being one of his stressors.

JPhillips 01-29-2024 04:08 PM

She does have the potential of leading the post-MAGA GOP after a Trump loss, but to do that she has to be courageous enough to never endorse and I doubt she'll hold out.

GrantDawg 01-30-2024 03:21 PM

Interesting interview from Penn Jillette on why he is no longer a Libertarian and his view of Trump.
https://www.cracked.com/amp/article_...t-all-out.html

Atocep 01-30-2024 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3425215)
Interesting interview from Penn Jillette on why he is no longer a Libertarian and his view of Trump.
https://www.cracked.com/amp/article_...t-all-out.html


His observation that Trump has never made or laughed at a joke and tying a sense of humor to empathy is interesting.

GrantDawg 01-30-2024 04:08 PM

Thought so as well. It is believable.

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Lathum 01-31-2024 10:16 AM


Kodos 01-31-2024 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3425006)
After seeing Trump on the campaign trail the past couple weeks I'm 100% with Joe Scarborough that Trump's team is keeping him away from the debate stage to hide his decline. He's lost a few steps from 2015-16.

Confusing Haley with Pelosi is the most obvious case and one that's not easy to explain away like they have with the Obama/Biden mixups. He's definitely slurring his words more often and sometimes struggles to speak. He's not as bad as they make Biden out to be, but he's definitely not the same guy that entered the white house.


At least Trump isn't having Mitch McConnell-level freeze-ups yet.

molson 01-31-2024 10:34 AM

If we get debates in the general election they're going to be bonkers.

GrantDawg 01-31-2024 10:36 AM

I can't stand Cowherd, but this time he is dead on. Unfortunately I don't believe that is his real opinion. I don't think he has real opinions. He just puts out whatver will piss people off the most to drive clicks/gain attention. Cowherd, Skip Bayless, Stephen A Smith, I would rather listen to static than any of those morons.

RainMaker 01-31-2024 12:39 PM


albionmoonlight 01-31-2024 02:23 PM

You should go to predictit, bet on Trump, and double your money: PredictIt

Thomkal 01-31-2024 03:55 PM

i'll see your polls and raise you Rainmaker;


https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1752800977587929236


in other words too close to tell if there's a trend or not

molson 01-31-2024 04:04 PM

Get your bets in before Taylor Swift makes her endorsement.

Lathum 01-31-2024 04:24 PM

I think as it becomes a more binary choice between the two, people are just going to find the constant crazy of a Trump presidency too exhausting.

GrantDawg 01-31-2024 04:35 PM

It isn't going to be binary. I don't think Robert Kennedy is going to pull 20%+ like he is in some polls, but he is going to hit close to 5%. Maybe a little more. With these margins, it will be significant.

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RainMaker 01-31-2024 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3425303)
i'll see your polls and raise you Rainmaker;

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1752800977587929236

in other words too close to tell if there's a trend or not


I've seen some stats folks talk about how Trump winning the popular vote and Biden winning the EC is a distinct possibility. Honestly, that would be the funniest outcome.

RainMaker 01-31-2024 04:41 PM

I'm very curious to see where RFK ends up. He's been pretty quiet and running a baffling campaign. But polls have shown he hurts Trump more than Biden.

Lathum 01-31-2024 04:49 PM

Fair point on RFK but I feel like he would get a lot of never trumper types. I think very few Ds or Is vote him.

NobodyHere 01-31-2024 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3425304)
Get your bets in before Taylor Swift makes her endorsement.


If Taylor Swift were to enter the race i bet she would get more than a few electoral votes.

BTW she turns 35 this year.

Kodos 01-31-2024 05:17 PM

Erm...

GrantDawg 01-31-2024 05:46 PM

"Fair point on RFK but I feel like he would get a lot of never trumper types. I think very few Ds or Is vote him."
It seems like the polls agree, but the Trump financial supporters don't. Tim Mellon, who has given $20 million to Trump's Super Pac just gave $15 million to RFK Jr. Super Pac. All of his money is coming from the Right.

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RainMaker 01-31-2024 06:13 PM

Mellon is a moron trust fund baby. A lot of those folks just throw away money on garbage candidates because they are inherently dumb.

Thomkal 01-31-2024 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3425307)
I've seen some stats folks talk about how Trump winning the popular vote and Biden winning the EC is a distinct possibility. Honestly, that would be the funniest outcome.



That would be damn scary for this country if after everything Trump has put it through since leaving office, more people would vote for him.

JonInMiddleGA 01-31-2024 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3425319)
That would be damn scary for this country if after everything Trump has put it through since leaving office, more people would vote for him.


There's actually another path to the "winning the popular vote": his vote total could be lower than 4 yrs ago BUT Biden's could be even more lower.

I'm not predicting that outcome mind you (I'm convinced he has no chance of winning, due to the "Hillary effect"), just tossing as a possible path

GrantDawg 02-01-2024 02:40 PM

This is some cynical but probably good political strategy right here. Adam Schiff is running ads claiming that Steve Garvey, a far-right Republican, is a "leading candidate" in attempt to boost him in the race. He is actually fighting for second with Katie Porter, and Schiff doesn't want to face Porter in a run-off. He would kill Garvey head-to-head. Personally I was disappointed Schiff ran. I was hoping Katie would breeze into the Senate. Heck, I would love to make her and her white-board President and Vice President.

JonInMiddleGA 02-01-2024 03:00 PM

Holy crap, that IS "that" Steve Garvey.

I'd completely forgotten he was in politics now.

GrantDawg 02-01-2024 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA (Post 3425360)
Holy crap, that IS "that" Steve Garvey.

I'd completely forgotten he was in politics now.

No kidding. I was surprised as well.

JPhillips 02-01-2024 04:27 PM

Sure seems like the GOP is moving to an agreement that states have a right to secede.

RainMaker 02-01-2024 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA (Post 3425320)
There's actually another path to the "winning the popular vote": his vote total could be lower than 4 yrs ago BUT Biden's could be even more lower.

I'm not predicting that outcome mind you (I'm convinced he has no chance of winning, due to the "Hillary effect"), just tossing as a possible path


This seems to be the analysis I've seen. That both Trump and Biden would receive less votes and voter turnout will be down considerably. Biden would see his margins in blue states like California, New York, and Illinois shrink significantly. It's not enough to put any of those states remotely in play, but even a couple percentage point shift in a high-population state is a lot toward the popular vote tally.

There's also a belief that he'll lose Nevada due to demographic shifts. And Michigan is in deep trouble due to its high Arab population.

GrantDawg 02-02-2024 07:45 AM

January gets another job report way above what was expected, nearly twice as high as projections. Wages are up 4.5% over last year as well. With consumer confidence also getting higher and higher, it is no surprise that polls are trending back toward Biden.

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Lathum 02-02-2024 08:01 AM

I think the GOP has realized going after Hunter is a losing proposition. I haven't heard a peep about him lately. It's all about the border now.

kingfc22 02-02-2024 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3425425)
I think the GOP has realized going after Hunter is a losing proposition. I haven't heard a peep about him lately. It's all about the border now.


Yep. Brown people bad. It’s the standard GOP boogeyman ploy

Thomkal 02-02-2024 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3425425)
I think the GOP has realized going after Hunter is a losing proposition. I haven't heard a peep about him lately. It's all about the border now.



They have so few things to campaign on now that the economy is good, abortion rights are more important to women voters than they expected, and they can't find one real impeachable thing on hunter and joe. So its down to the border and making up stuff about how horrible it is. i even saw recent chatter on putting a wall on our northern border too so those dangerous Canadians can't get in.

molson 02-02-2024 11:20 AM

Gas has been collapsing in price around me. Things seem a lot better at the grocery store too. Those kinds of things are probably the most important factors in this election if they continue.

NobodyHere 02-02-2024 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3425436)
Gas has been collapsing in price around me. Things seem a lot better at the grocery store too. Those kinds of things are probably the most important factors in this election if they continue.


I wish I could say the same. Gas was around the $2.70 range and now it's back over $3 bucks.


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