The tea party would really have to the move the goalposts to claim a win with Trump.

When the story broke on the 22nd, almost no one was covering it. Even Wikileaks made a joke about CNN and CBS having it nowhere on their site at the time.

WikiLeaks on Twitter: "Broadcasters so far implicanted in #DNCLeaks: MSNBC, CBS
Broadcasters so far not covering #DNCLeaks: MSNBC, CBS"

The only reason it's gotten more publicity now is that Wasserman-Shultz stepped down after immense pressure from Sanders supporters.

And even now the story has been spun to be about a dumb conspiracy theory that Russia has masterminded the whole thing.

I will absolutely promise you that there is an enormous crossover between those who would have been called "supportive of the tea party movement" in some poll and those who are most enthusiastically backing Trump now. Yuge crossover.

That goes back to the whole "Tea Party" (as an even loosely organized entity) vs "tea party" as more of a label for a concept. The latter was always a much larger number than the former.

CNN/ORC Poll just released.


Trump 44%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

I know, I know. "CONVENTION BOUNCE!!!!!1"

But from THAT dumpster fire of a convention????

More details are coming out of that poll. 68% of those polled said HRC is not honest and trustworthy. The CNN commentator was just asked by Cuomo "have we EVER seen numbers that high for untrustworthy???" He quipped "Sure. August of 1974!"

Wait, 32% of people believes she IS honest and trustworthy?

:D

Kool-aid drinkers

I was naive enough to take #NeverTrump GOPers at their word when they said they didn't want him to be president.

I now realize (should have been obvious) that as soon as it became D v R, they would do everything in their power to make him president.

On Facebook, I cautioned days ago about anyone taking any poll too seriously over the next month. Convention bumps are a common thing, historically most of them balance themselves out. A solid performance at the RNC gets back a few people who were claiming "oh I'll just vote for Hilary". Then the DNC delivers some of the Bernie-ites back to HRC.

{shrug}

And nothing matters that much until after Labor Day.

Still, just for fun, look a little deeper at the results to see what happened.


So Trump goes +15 with independents while Hillary goes -6, Johnson -7 ... and Stein -6? The unaccounted for portion (other candidates? undecided?) more than doubles, going from 3% to now 7%.

I like how the poll showed an even split between those who say it made them more/less likely to vote Trump ... and then resulted in a significant shift toward Trump regardless. Reminds of a West Wing episode where Toby wants to talk to the 15%(or some such figure) of people who stated both that they thought spending on foreign aid was too high, yet at the same time didn't want it cut:eek:

Most polls have a higher number of Trump supporters than of people that think he's qualified to be president.

I did a doubletake on that initially & then I figured it out.

The "less likely" were the crowd that figured "okay, -1 is less than 0, so ... ".
The more likely included some that crossed from probably not to okay yeah I guess.

After reading it a couple of times I realized that the numbers looked funny but could actually have a simple explanation.

fwiw, LA Times and Morning Consult polls also now show Trump in the lead, but smaller convention bumps of about 3% (I think LA Times actually had him leading in the poll previous, same margin, just with fewer undecided or 3rd party leans)

CNN is saying that the Trump bump is the largest since 2000--when both of them had 8-point convention bumps.

Dola:

I guess what I'm saying is that with the extremely high visibility of these two candidates, I'm surprised that there's any significant bump. Trump and Clinton are who they are. America "knows" them. They're not going to reinvent themselves in four days.

But there are a lot of undecided and third party responders. Those people will likely flip around several times.

Great to see progressives make it clear that Bernie isn't pure enough for Bernie supporters.

Bernies revolution was a farce. Otherwise, he would continue on with it. 74 years old with little left in life to accomplish and he shows no stones. He bitched for a year about the system being rigged. Finds out its true and rolls over and will endorse HRC.

What a puss.

See though, that's one of the things that makes me wonder how much of the bump is real.

On paper, it looks like CNN suggested that some voters flipped, post-convention, from Stein to Trump? Okay, would someone care to introduce me to a few of those folks, 'cause that's a variant I don't know that I've ever encountered in the wild.

I mean, it's not as though the convention suddenly gave a soft supporter of Stein some new revelations that leaned them into Trump's camp.

Now, I suppose, there IS a longer sequence that could account for the math.
That would go with more voters switching from Clinton-->Trump than HRC's net loss, then voters moving from Stein-->Clinton making up for some of HRC's losses (cause, maybe, those Stein voters decided he was a more viable threat & they shifted to Nevertrump & figured Hillary was the best option)

The L.A. Times version of the new poll & new story (re: their poll, not CNN's) noted something that I referenced earlier: the last post-convention bump of size that actually stuck was Clinton 1992.

My hope is that Tim Kaine becomes President a LOT sooner than Hilary and the DNC is planning on.

The day after the inauguration would not be too soon.

and that, imo, would be the best scenario, assuming Congress stays Republican.

I actually would not be surprised if health issues derail Clinton and/or Trump.

Lead Poisoning?

I kid...

Or he thinks getting half done is better than a Trump presidency.

Exactly. A Trump presidency would be the worst thing that could happen for the progressive movement.

Bernie hasn't just suddenly sold out. He actually understands what needs to happen in order to keep the progressive ideas moving forward.

Maybe he doesn't want Trump to be President?

Kasich is a pussy for not closing the convention in Cleveland.

Bush is a pussy for not fighting Trump.

Christie is a pussy for
well, Christie is a pussy.

Apparently DNC built a nice blue wall to keep out people with dissenting opinions.

Also they were taking away Bernie signs threatening to revoke credentials.

I agree that, in general, pre-convention polls are not that meaningful.

But my whole theory of the election was that a large section of the public does not find Trump acceptable and would never agree to vote for him.

That is demonstrably not true. It's a real race.

Good. Those people are being stupid. They worked so hard to get their liberal platform and rather than work to get it implemented with Hillary they'd rather see none of it get done with Trump? Makes no sense.

I imagine you're faux outraged at this as well.

You are happy that there was a wall built and voices were quieted? Really?

Think like us or shut the f*ck up.

Yep. And you guys wonder why Trump has a shot. Its elitist crap from both sides that are pissing off the little guy. Trump has spoken to them. He has pushed the right buttons.

Why did the RNC have a 3.3 sq mile no gathering zone? And the DNC build s a wall.

Stupid.

Both conventions can and should be mocked. Just because I'm mocking the DNC doesn't mean the RNC shouldn't of been criticized and made fun of as well (which it has).

Welcome to the fight. I've been bitching about free speech zones since the Bush years.

The issue here, though, is an outrage when one side does it, but apathy when a different side does the exact same thing.

You do realize that Trump's team agreed to the wall in Cleveland, right?

I've said this before about Bernie supporters, it's not about republicans vs democrats anymore. Perhaps the older (and more conservative) democrats see it that way but that's not how millenials see it.

The conventions are made for TV events in which the parties try to make the case for why their candidates should be elected.

Why in goodness' name would they not do everything in their power to bar protesters and others trying to ruin the show?

If Microsoft is holding a launch event for the new Xbox, should they open up the stage to a bunch of Sony fanboys?

are-millennials-lazy-entitled-narcissists

Yep, by giving cooperate bailouts and promising huge tax breaks for the rich Trump is speaking to the little man.

Maybe it's his 71% mostly false, false, or pants on fire rating from politifact that speaks to the little man.


A much cheaper wall than Trump's.

I guess you look at it in one of 2 ways. Give money to corporations or jack up the Federal government. Its sad those are the only 2 choices we get now.

And if you really dont believe that Trump is speaking the little guys language, you need to look around. Go to a rural area. go to a blue collar area. They are sucking up what Trump is feeding them.

I have no doubt.

He may well be speaking that language. I think the feeling by many of us though is that he's selling snake oil.

And you may be right.

But I think the buyers think they got a raw deal the last 8 years.

Look at our economy 8 years ago and look at it today. What exactly did people want that didn't happen?

Maybe they should try to flip Congress then?

Pretty much this.

Yeah, this goes for both sides. I don't know why people think the conventions are some kind of place to have protests and huge debates inside. It's supposed to be a celebration for the nominee and the platform going into the election. If people want to do all that stuff outside the convention, go for it. But why would the party that is paying for the convention want a bunch of jagoffs screaming and yelling inside?

I'd have thought the DNC was staffed by even bigger idiots if they didn't take any reasonable precaution to manage their own event ... but maybe that's part of the whole criticize-the-other-side-when-they-do-it thing.

Maybe a lot of people actually hope the opposition IS that stupid, and get frustrated when they aren't?

I think that's part of it. Like in sports, it's always more fun when your opponent does something stupid than when your team does something awesome.

On a related note, this Saints' fan misses Mike Smith coaching the Falcons.

The DNC is staffed by idiots. I think it just comes with the political territory. If you have talent, why the fuck would you work in politics?

It sounds like the problem tonight is that they accidentally seated a small amount of troublemakers near the TV network mics. Still, what a bunch of maroons.

Fake edit: Hah! I accidentally wrote "sedated a small amount of troublemakers" I blame the muscle relaxers for tommorrow's "Take 4" attempt at Oral Surgery :P

I dont like the xbox, sony comparison. Im not buying a product. Im electing my representative and I want my voice heard.

Are they afraid of riots? Are they afraid someone might have a point about the platform that isnt self serving to the candidate?

This country has a constitutional right to protest. Yet here are the elitists on both sides spitting on the constitution.

Yes, I went there.

Not at a private event at a private facility.

Awesome. Bernie and Hillary came together to create a college education plan that has less than zero percent of ever getting passed. It's the right political move if that's what it took to get his support, but the Bernie people sure are going to be pissed about that in 4 years.

Who are these people who go to conventions and are brought to tears by politicians speaking?

far left millenials

Did you just learn the word millennial today and trying to work it in as much as you can?

It's going to be awkward when Hilary's standing ovation lasts 5 minutes less than Bernie's.

These conventions keep highlighting exactly why we need to get rid of the two party system. How many times do we hear about doing things "for the party?" It is supposed to be FOR THE PEOPLE!

*not a real person, performance may or may not be based on actual humans living or dead

You must've watched about 4 minutes of the convention if that was your takeaway. Maybe you can get a job at some right-wing site with those scorching hot taeks.

Was wondering that myself. Why are you crying? This isn't like some transformational sermon. This is a clumsy bridge-building speech by Bernie flippin' Sanders, who is not really a Democrat.

The idiots they interviewed on the floor during the PBS coverage who are for Sanders who said "I'm not sure what I'm going to do in the fall"... well, let's just say I'm starting to come around to JiMGa's way of thinking on their respective usefulness.

I will say my favorite sign of the night was a Bernie supporter that had altered the STRONGER TOGETHER sign by blacking out strategic letters until it said STOP HER.

I guess they missed 99% of them?

Just saw a post on FB about this. A video of Tucker Carlson on Fox News saying he was "disappointed" in Bernie. Tucker Carlson. Right. I'm sure he really believes that, and doesn't just want to dissuade Bernie supporters from voting for Clinton.

You do realize of course that these conventions were organized and run by party leaders? Of course there is going to be a lot of cheering for the party.

I'm not sure why all these blue-collar, hard-working people think Donald Trump will be their voice and speaks for them. He has literally spent his entire life/career bullying and taking advantage of them to make himself richer. I guess all that matters is that he's an "outsider" (of course he really isn't as he has been lobbying and rubbing elbows with politicians his entire career).

If only Hillary did not suck so much...

Today's polls...

First result is Clinton-Trump. Second result includes Johnson and Stein.

CNN: Trump +3, Trump +5
CBS: Trump +1, Trump +1
Economist: Clinton +5, Clinton +2
LA Times: Trump +5
NBC: Clinton +1, Trump +2

State Polls...

GA (WSB-TV): Trump +2
NV (Rasmussen): Trump +5
OH (PPP): Tie, Trump +3

You could have gotten Trump at 30-1 when he announced his candidacy (even though he was immediately leading in the polls). I think there is this hopeful denial factor that has kept his odds relatively low, but he's overachieved all the way through.

And Clinton is very vulnerable and unpopular. I'd say 7/4 sounds about right, that puts Trump at about 36% to win, that's about where he is at Predicit. Those are not very long odds. This is Donald Trump for god's sake, and this could actually happen

The trustworthiness factor is confusing to me. On its own it does not seem that important, which is why,I guess, the next president will generally be considered untrustworthy. Becoming/Being president and being a good person seems so impossible, it may as well be considered an impediment.

I think that the betting markets are not too efficient. I trust the polls more.

The money invested is too low. People's personal views of who they want to win are too strong.

Based on the polls, it makes logical sense to pick up some Trump shares and sell some Hillary shares at the current price. But I imagine that a lot of Hillary supporters are not going to do that simply because it would feel wrong.

And, if after the DNC, Hillary has a stable 5-7 point lead, I don't think that you are going to see lots of Trump folks dumping shares and buying Hillary.

Don't know if this has been posted here, but it made me chuckle.

I guess mine will probably be similar just from Establishment back to the outsider...

Rubio 2016!!!! Ok, fine, Trump, I guess. :)

It's meaningless this far out, but I trust those polls just like I trust that Clinton will be back to a ~5 point lead when the Dems get their convention bounce. Country's too polarized (and Hilary too polarizing a candidate) to be more than a 5 point race in November, and the odds 538 has been giving all along in the 20-35% range for a Trump win seem about right. I hate the media, but they don't need to manipulate anything here.

Yeah I think media manipulation is a bit tinfoil hat wishful thinking. I mean they could still make it a close race with Hillary on top, if that was their goal.

The betting markets are where they are because many people with Clinton shares are either: 1) playing the long game and still expect her to win and/or 2) expect the DNC bounce to push things in their favor. In other words, not everyone participating in the betting markets are betting on the reality of now, they're betting on where things will be in the future.

Nate Silver himself said that if the election were held today, Trump would win, but he still has Hillary favored. That doesn't mean he thinks the polls are wrong. He just thinks they will change.

If you enjoy watching Bernie bros melt down, the #SelloutBernie hashtag is a good place to start...

On Point on Twitter: "Well it's definite, Hillary has put Bernie's testicles in her lock box, will he every get them back? #selloutbernie"

RGoGoGo on Twitter: "@bpolitics @BretBaier after @BernieSanders rolled over id be pissed at him. #SelloutBernie https://t.co/WMvPziKzyy"

★ Thomas Pasieka on Twitter: "Wonder how much the Clintons paid Sanders to say the words he uttered. #selloutBernie"

I'm rolling my eyes at that hashtag. Yes, it's disappointing to see him wave the white flag, but at least he forced concessions in the platform to make it more progressive. The problem with that (and hence why I'm not all that enthusiastic) is that IMO it's lip service and upon election, Hillary will go right back to doing Hill things.

If anyone says anything that the Berniebros disagree with, they must have been paid to do so because there is only one right opinion to have and everyone else is a sellout corporate fascist.

Was watching the roll-call right now, and MSNBC and CNN are giving it full coverage. Fox? split screen of the roll-call with the volume down so the hosts could talk to some adviser/former Clinton worker about Uber and how the Democrats are trying to make it harder for it to be used.

A couple times I got engaged in a debate with BernieBro's, and they literally refused to believe that Hillary got more votes in the primary. Obviously DWS was biased (although really, there was nothing in the email leak besides a grown man using the word peeps that wasn't well known and discussed in the Dem Primary thread here) and the system was set up to potentially steal a close election, but they wouldn't accept the indisputable fact that Hillary got more votes.

I'm used to accusations of media bias, but even the right wingnuts don't have the audacity to question the actual vote totals that CNN/NYT/WaPo/Google/Wikipedia etc report. Though I guess that makes their belief in the more far fetched parts of their economic platform easier to understand.

Sounds like the right programming decision from their end. What percentage of likely Fox viewers want to watch that roll call? (I mean, even past the question of what percentage of people anywhere want to watch a roll call.) If you want a station who at least tries not to openly cheer for one side, watch PBS.

But exit polls!

Howard Dean won the convention.

Bill Clinton did a great job. I missed the Howard Dean reference. Did he show up and everybody hollered?

Just saw it in my news feed, disregard. lol. :)

I wonder how hard the poor intern was laughed at, when he schedule Bill to speak for 20 minutes

Yeah, someone shared that to me on FB a couple weeks ago (when Sanders first came out in support of HRC), and I shared it as well. Hilarious.

...IMO it's lip service and upon election, Hillary will go right back to doing Hill things.

This might as well be her epitaph. This simple statement encapsulates everything that is wrong with her.

What public office has she won other than her senate seat? And did she break a lot of promises after she won it?

Of course Hillary will disappoint. Bernie would, too. They all disappoint.

Well I guess there was a reason that there was no headlining speaker scheduled after him. They gave him the space of (at least) two speakers. Though he did a phenomenal job with all that time. Man, Bill's still got it.

Generally speaking, for everyone aside from the Bernie fans, Hill things are definitely left of center, and to some (you know, everyone to the right of Kasich), they are 'far left'.

I thought he was a little rambly with the "early" part of their life. I get it, he's trying to humanize her. But there's no way everybody stuck with that part.

Overall, I quite enjoyed it, but then again I'm not their target audience.