Better just to convince Bibi to give more time for hostage negotiations (and show joint resolve).

Better not to announce US forces getting involved militarily. Or setting up some sort of safe haven (ala 1983).

He is also traveling to Jordan to meet with the King, the President of Egypt and the President of the Palestinian Authority.

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Israel has a real problem with what comes next. They can bomb the shit out of Gaza, but then what? They don't want to police it or even worse incorporate it into Israel. The leadership of Hamas isn't even in Gaza, so what can they really accomplish?

this is why my brain is broken on this issue. both sides obliterating this land. the people there unable to leave said land.

If it is completely obliterated and uninhabitable, it seems they STILL want it.....

AAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

Most wars aren't logical. If people followed rational, dispassionate evaluation we wouldn't live most of our lives frankly the way we do. Surrendering to the enemy, abandoning 'rightful claims', etc. are seen as worse than any possible alternative by some. And so here we are.

He is going to lose in 2024. Approval rating in the shitter and this is all he has.

We’re the most powerful nation in the history of the world. We can take care of Israel and Ukraine and still maintain our overall international defense. pic.twitter.com/j3ajSs5sG8

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 16, 2023

President Joe Biden will visit Israel, US Secretary of State Blinken says | CNN Politics
Still seems weird Joe is going. Blinken is good enough IMO. Joe should be working with the UN to get them to send a humanitarian contingent on the ground or create a safe zone. BTW where is the UN anyway?

I can see some value in Egypt. I'm guessing we've agreed to some terms for Egypt to open the border. Jordan has a large Palestinian population, doesn't share any borders with Gaza so unsure why other than symbolism ... and I'm surprised Jordan and Abbas want Joe to show up to talk to them right now as I'd think their population will react negatively.

Having 2 carrier groups should be proof enough of support and warning. If that doesn't do it, seriously doubt that Joe showing up himself will do much more.

Bottom line. Joe going seems weird to me. What he wants can be accomplished through Blinken, through our show of force or some public announcement that we'll do X, Y, Z and give A, B, C. I absolutely see value in Joe going after the conflict has calmed down some, but right now just seems off.

It is a symbol. Both for Israel and for the domestic audience.

The President physically going somewhere still matters. It sends a message.

The question is good enough for what? Just sending Blinken does not reflect the commitment the U.S. has made to Israel since 1948. The President going to Israel and being seen on the ground to see and feel what is going on reflects that commitment. This is what "ironclad support" looks like. On the idea of the UN coming in now. That might be a bit more uncomfortable for everyone involved. It has been easy for most countries to support Israel after the Hamas attacks and its right to defend itself. Putting actual resources beyond that? I am not sure a lot of other countries are prepared for that sort of litmus test of support for Israel right now.


I would not be too sure about Egypt or any other country making agreements to open the border at this point. I'm not sure what the benefit is at this point for them. I am sure from the Egyptian point of view, the Palestinians have their own land and they see no reason for Egypt to help remove them from that land. Also, similar to going to Israel, I am sure Jordan wants him to see and feel the sentiments on the ground in Jordan as well.


Except if X,Y,Z may include shooting U.S missiles from those carriers or worst, U.S. boots on the grounds even in a support role that can't come from the Secretary of State. I am not predicting or even suggesting that one of those things might happen. I am saying the President needs to be seen as being out in front of the nation's position now and in the future. What Biden should want to accomplish is to not have a Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. I think if a ground war occurs all bets are off as far as what the response will be from U.S., the Arab nations and the world in general.

I'm not getting the weird thing either. The Sec. of State usually goes and sets up things for the President to come in and finalize. It is giving the official stamp on how serious the US is taking things. I was more surprised on how early he is going than whether he would go.

We're number 1! We're number 1!
https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/geo...source=twitter

Shocked to see all the red states at the bottom...shocked!!

Texas and Idaho are probably pissed they missed out on the shitty healthcare playoff.

Politico did not break it down, not sure if a breakdown is even available right now. But sure, $100B for Ukraine, Israel, border funding, disaster aid etc. is probably worth it ... but do want to see the breakdown and how it'll be paid for.

Biden expected to ask Congress for $100B package that includes aid to Israel and Ukraine - POLITICO

He's going to bring it up in tonight's speech. I like the addition of Taiwan.

It's understandable that he does not have the specific breakdowns right now (e.g. Congress is not in session). But I'd like to know how this will be paid for. I assume it's net new to our debt/deficit but hope it comes out of something else.

Biden Oval Office speech: President plans to push for Israel and Ukraine aid in primetime remarks | CNN Politics

ha

Good speech Joe. Make up person did a good job.

Nice focus on Ukraine & Israel. And making a distinction between Hamas & Palestinians. Rejecting antisemitism, islamophobia; "we're all Americans"; "not to be blinded by rage"; "I refuse to let that happen" ... lots of good words & phrases.

One thing for sure, there's no making nice with Putin now.

I wish someone would send an aid package to me. JUST me.
No one else.

I'm sure they'll find some cuts in Medicaid, food stamps, and maybe infrastructure projects. There are more important issues like pissing away $100 billion for nothing in return.

what's the over/under on how many of the 20 trucks actually make it thru gaza without esploding?

How do ramen noodles and water cost 100B?

Here's the breakdown of the $105B ...


From an Oct 1 article

How much aid the U.S. has sent to Ukraine, in 6 charts | PBS NewsHour

I've seen other numbers for our support life-to-date. I'm not good enough to reconcile them, suspect different components and ways of counting.

But right now $75B + $60B = $135B.


For comparison purposes, Joe's student debt forgiveness plan (new one, not the old rejected one). TBH I thought the new plan was going to be < $50B or something, I'm not sure why it's jacked up to $475B and more than the original rejected plan.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/19/b...repayment.html

Hey now, a good chunk of that money is corporate welfare. Defense contractors have to eat too, you know.

I'm betting military prison.

Travis King, Army private who fled to North Korea, charged with desertion | CNN Politics


Yup, good mom. Can't help but feel bad for her in this situation.

That's all this is. That money is not going to help anyone here at all besides them.

We have talked about Jeff Jackson on here before, the congressman from North Carolina who probably uses TikTok better than any other politician. He does discussions about what is going on in Congress from an insider's point of view. Unfortunately, his district just got gerrymandered out of existence in the new map. Instead of trying to win a 60% Republican district where he now finds himself, he is instead running for NC Attorney General. It sucks to lose him from Congress, but I hope he wins that state election.

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If the Dems were smart, they'd give him a position in the DNC or something where he could make videos and reach out to younger voters. They won't because he's a threat to them, but it'd be smart.

Johnson's interview with Hannity.

Mike Johnson on Hannity: 12 key lines from the new House speaker's interview - POLITICO



He seems to support Ukraine & Israel.

The fun is not over yet Boyz.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67224353
He should be expelled but then politics will get in the way.

Santos (if that is indeed his real name) has managed to do something I had not thought possible, specifically "be a GOP politician who has crimed too much even for today's GOP".

He hasn't managed it yet.

If expulsion requires 2/3 there's no chance that will happen. The new speaker already has made it clear the GOP margin is slim and we have to let the legal process play out.

Whether he could have stopped it or not, I think the "war" in the Middle East is going to cook Biden. His approval rating is cratering and it's especially true with young people.

Just a moment...

Trunp is going to cynically play this as "this wouldn't have happened under my Presidency" even if it likely would have. And he is going to hammer Biden for billions in handouts to Ukraine and Israel while people are struggling here. It basically puts Biden's foreign policy in the spotlight over anything else.

Now I don't think we will see a ton of Biden to Trump voters. But I do see a lot more Biden voters staying home, especially younger and Arab ones. The backlash against is there on this, even if the moderates support him. Whether Trump sees a drop-off too is another story.

Few weeks ago I would have said Biden had an 80% chance of winning. Now I'd say it's less than 50%.

For some reason I think this headline was directed at a member of FOFC

The House G.O.P Has Its Leader. But Can He Be a Rainmaker?

But it is a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation. Support for Israel is overwhelming, especially among Democrats. Is only the lowest age demographic that supports Palestine. So, do you cater it the 25% and go against the 75%, the ones that includes the most reliable voters and about 99% of all donors? If he refused to support Israel he would have near 0 chance of getting reelected.

If this is largely over by the end of the year I just don't see it having much impact on the general election in 2024. Too many other things will happen by then.

I was at a trade association meeting this past week. We brought in one of our DC lobbyists to give a federal update on issues impacting our industry. This is a pretty well-connected lobbyist from Brownstein. He's a GOPer but the firm is bipartisan.

At the reception later that night, I ended up in a group of 3-4 people talking about politics which included the lobbyist. He said the general expectation in DC is that Biden is not going to run for reelection. He said he thought the only way Trump wins is if Biden runs. That surprised the rest of us because it's just not something anyone is talking about. Someone said, well if that's going to happen, they need to move pretty quickly to get someone to replace him. He said, no just the opposite. No one wants Kamala, so this is not going to be a formal hand-off like you would expect in the traditional sense, it's going to be a coordinated effort with a short timeline to give Harris no shot and allow 2 or 3 people to jump into the race. He said it might be some story like Biden gets sick, decides to step aside in the best interests of the party/country, and allows a Whitmer/Newsom/Pritzker to fight it out.

I guess take it with a grain of salt from the DC GOP side - maybe he was just entertaining us - but it seems plausible given his age and approval ratings.

We also talked KY politics and he confirmed what we're seeing in polls that Cameron's internal polling does not look good. He said Beshear is popular and that Kentuckians tend to ignore party if they feel like a homegrown Kentuckian shows they care about the people of the state. One of his good friends in Congress is Andy Barr who happens to be my Rep, and he said Barr is really hoping Cameron wins because Barr has his sights on McConnell's seat and wants Cameron to already have a job when McConnell steps aside. Pretty interesting.

re: Biden & Kamala.

Was your lobbyist implying like Biden knows he's not going to run and therefore consciously trying to short changed Kamala at the right time?

Or that Biden genuinely does want to run for re-election but sooner or later he'll realize he should drop out?

That sounds like GOP fever dream crap.

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The former.

Certainly possible. But there's nothing I see from polling that suggests Biden is doing well so...

To be fair, almost all incumbents look bad at this point of the election. Obama, Clinton, Bush all were at there lowest points the year before reelection. But attempting to cut out the people in the selection process would doom whoever the Democrats put up. If Biden did like straight up die or become incapacitated that might make it work, but then if it is not Kamala it is going to further divide the party. "If a black woman is not good enough to be President, then why was she choosen to be Vice President?" "You are replacing a black Vice President with a white man?"
Biden won the nomination by winning over black voters. What are those black voters going to feel like if you replace the Black female Vice President with Gavin Newsome without a primary?

Dola: Just to add if Biden drops out after some or all the primaries have taken place, then it is likely the next highest delegate count is going to belong to Dean Phillips. I don't see the party being happy with the nominee being Harlan Crow's favorite Democrat.

This:


And this:


Now, if it was a Democratic lobbyist, more likely to have some inside sources, I'd give it a little bit of thought but right now it sounds more likely something a bored DC pundit class thought up.

Maybe. As someone who supported Biden and obviously would vote for him again, I still think he ought to step aside. He's just too old, period. I think he'll have a hard time fighting the narrative of the economy, border and foreign affairs under his presidency regardless of the facts. And having to pull Harris along as VP again because *tradition* and *A-A woman* makes his situation even worse because she's underperforming the low expectations for a VP.

I don't know why Harris wouldn't have to prove herself if Biden stepped aside. She got like 1% of Dems during the 2020 primaries and she's done nothing to show she's presidential material as VP. Why wouldn't others have a fair shot? He can step aside without having to endorse anyone.

His firm is bipartisan so they have all the sources covered. Now, it's a fair point whether as a GOPer he is just running out his own version of what he thinks or wants to happen, but I have no doubt his firm knows pretty much everything going on on both sides of the aisle.

The deadline for primaries is disappearing. I think the New Hampshire primary deadline is this week. If Biden drops out in a couple of months, there is no way anyone can "prove" themselves because the primary deadlines will be long past. That leaves the party elders just picking a candidate, which is what I was referring to. That would be death to the Democrats.

No it's not. Sympathies have shifted toward Palestinians over the years. And the party overwhelmingly supports a ceasefire (heck even Republicans want it). Biden's position is in the extreme minority of the party.

This is a new era and they're treating it like 20 years ago. Young people can pull up videos of dead babies being pulled out of rubble and white phosphorous being dropped on residential neighborhoods. They can read about why Gaza is considered an open air prison. The media can't be the gatekeeper anymore about this stuff. It's why you're seeing a push by Israel to shutoff all communications in Gaza and murder journalists reporting on it.

No one really knows how this plays out, but I don't remember a time where there was this much blowback regarding Israel's atrocities. I think Biden is going to lose a lot of important demographics and we knew his margins were already very tight.

I don't buy that there is some grand plan to have Biden step aside. They've mostly neutered all the big names who could run a successful Presidential campaign like Pritzker and Gretchen. They've made no effort to build up someone like Mark Kelly who would be tough to beat (especially if foreign policy becomes an issue).

They're all in on Biden for better or worse.

"Narrowing" shows Palestinian support at it is "highest" and it is still 23% in favor of Israel and with only 31% in favor of Palestinians. Ignoring the 54% in favor of the 31% is not exactly great political strategy.

And these numbers show the challenge: Just a moment...


"Less than half (48%) of Gen Z and millennials believe the U.S. should publicly voice support of Israel compared with 63% of Gen Xers, 83% of baby boomers and 86% of members of the Silent Generation, according to a recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll."
So do you chase the age group that lean the furthest left, but are also the least likely to show up or give donations while turning off the age groups that have the highest voter turn out and the vast majority of all political donations?

Tough choice.

Who do you think is the voting base for Biden in those charts?

He can't win without either age group. He gets a high percentage of the youth vote, but a higher base number from the older age groups.

Well he's chosen his group. We'll see how it works out for him next year.

Interesting stuff.

The punchline: despite the low approval, Biden dominates with both strong and somewhat approvers while Trump dominates as strongly w strong disapprove. The Biden surprise is he splits somewhat disapprove w a slight lead. That 20% of voters is keeping his head almost above water. pic.twitter.com/FxnE02harS

— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) October 29, 2023

That's so sad. The bar has been moved so many times for what people are willing to hold their nose over and vote for.

The problem with an entrenched 2-party state is that most of the time you're going to be voting for someone who roughly aligns with you (at best) over someone who doesn't align with you at all (also at best).

I think it comes down to turnout. There was a lot of motivation in 2020 to vote Trump out of office. I don't know if you'll have that same motivation after 4 years of not much changing. Then again, I don't know if Trump's indictments and just tiredness of him will keep Republicans home.

It'll come down to turnout and margins are thin in many states. I do think the war is really bad for Joe if it drags out like many seem to think it will.

I also think it matters if you're in a swing state or not too. I'll never vote for Biden again, but I'm also in a state that doesn't matter. Understand why someone in a swing state would hold their nose and vote for him even if I wouldn't.

Who are you going to vote for, the Greens?

In Illinois you don't have to vote in every race. So I'll probably just skip it unless there is some interesting 3rd party candidate. Maybe I'll just mark Cornel West down if he's on the ballot. It really doesn't matter in Illinois.

Michigan, Virginia, and Pennsylvania have large Arab populations.




NEW: Just 17% of Arab Americans say they will vote for Biden in 2024, according to a new @AAIUSA poll—a staggering drop from 59% in 2020.

“This is the most dramatic shift over the shortest period of time that I’ve ever seen,” @jjz1600 tells @TIME. https://t.co/KwOI9F3bVb

— Yasmeen Serhan (@YasmeenSerhan) October 31, 2023

The6 will really enjoy the internment camps once Trump is in power.

You know he was President and that didn't happen, right? Kind of tough to scare people with the same stuff from 2016.

Trump is often treated as a Sponge of Infinite Evil. He's guilty not only of the many, many serious evils he actually has committed or attempted, but also of any other bad things that one can imagine. All of these can be attributed to him as well, regardless of whether or not he actually did them.

Yeah you know that we have far less safe guards. Hey I get it Biden is an old fart but where are the better options. I would vote for almost anyone as a D and that even includes a Bernie who would be an old fart too. I agree the good ole boy democratic machine needs to wake the f up and get someone charismatic and young to run. I wish they could get a guy like Wes Moore to run.

This all being said this will turn out far worse for this country this time around if Trump gets in there. I am a white middle aged straight vet and technology executive and really am not concerned about MAGA affecting my life. I just don’t think it is worth the risk to say yeah I will sit home knowing this gets the MAGAs party back in power. But you bros do you.

Does anyone else see the obvious, glaring missing element in this statement?

Gov. Kevin Stitt (R-OK), before signing a proclamation declaring November “Family Month” in Oklahoma:

“Studies show that married men, ages 18 to 55, are twice as happy compared to their single peers. But today, unfortunately, we're seeing fewer and fewer people get married.” pic.twitter.com/vnA1ZE4ygt

— The Recount (@therecount) October 31, 2023

Cool. I cannot imagine not voting for all Blues regardless. They at least want to protect voter rights and eliminate the gerrymandering which then could bring an influx of viable candidates, whereas if you let Republicans win, you won't have to worry about voting ever again.

He is, and the world will be better when he is no longer here. It's not that he's a piece of shit, he allows the justification of others to forcefully engage in shitty horrific behavior and justify it by "telling it like it is".

There has never been more of a downgrade in American existance to this point. I at least can read of during the Civil War that most who engaged did respect the others they fought against. They believed in the cause even if it was morally repugnant.

The people who support Trump and justify his behavior don't believe in a cause, they just want to destroy America for anyone who isn't them, and if they can't get what they want, then burn it all down.

They didn't do anything to protect voter rights or eliminate gerrymandering while controlling the White House, House, and Senate.

Our proxy is carpet bombing civilian refugee camps and Biden is out there begging for more money for bombs. Not about being an "old fart" or some tax policy dispute, I'm not voting for someone pushing for genocide and the mass murder of civilians on our dime. Same reason I wouldn't vote for Bush or any other war criminal.


If that's the best alternative they can come up with to Trump, best of luck.

You mean the "control" of the Senate with half-GOPers Manchin and Sinema blocking any chance of passing the voting right bills passed in the House by a simple majority due to the filibuster?

So if the filibuster protects us from anything happening, the vote isn't that important anyway.

If you don't think it's important or something that needs protecting by more than one party, then why does it matter that it didn't pass?

Interesting, it's the Republicans making Tuberville dig his "I won't allow any promotions due to woke abortion policy in the Armed Forces" grave even deeper..

They're asking for a voice vote on 376 pending promotions, asking for unanimous consent, so Tuberville will have to object 376 times. If he leaves the floor (and doesn't get anyone to cover for him), they'll pass them all without him.

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/stat...64437782249669

But the other 99 want to stay little kings so they won't curtail the power of one senator to hold things up.

The whole system on the Senate is stupid. I don't know they get anything done. As it is, they do very little.

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I honestly don't think Tuberville understands the depth of the damage he's doing. He thinks these people just show up every day in an acting role and there's no real harm done.

Now Vance is saying he'll block every appointment to Justice.

yet they're a figurative dragster in speed compared to the House

Comparing Muslims vs Jewish populations.

Muslim Population by State 2023 - Wisevoter

Jewish Population by State [Updated March 2023]

I'm sure there'll be election polls that delineates Jews/Muslims voters sentiments all through next year. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

If I was Muslim, I would struggle between Joe vs Trump. How Jews will vote depends on how this plays out and how strong Joe's conviction is.

Interesting, because I would have put money on there being more Muslims than Jewish citizens.

2040

According to my mother, they have overrun parts of the Dallas suburbs and are threatening to turn it into another Dearborn where people will be openly praying in the streets 5 times a day.

Id guess that a decent amount of jewish people are that from heritage and culture but are not actively practicing and have no real connection to israel. I am jewish, not actively practicing and have negative opinions of the atrocities from all parties involved in the current conflict.

It just feels like a conflict that will never be resolved because there are extremists on both sides who simply refuse the live and let live. And so innocents on both sides continue to get caught in the crossfire.

There was plans to build the largest mosque east of Atlanta about 3 miles from me, along with a school and 21 acres of residences. There were huge protests at the time but the county couldn't stop the construction legally. It was never built, though. I have no idea what caused it to fall through.

I used to drive 25 min to get a haircut at a mall. The drive would take me past a large Shirdi Sai temple, big parking lot etc. It was off the side of a 2-lane highway. There were plenty of houses (and a couple subdivisions) around it, including houses opposite the temple.

The temple was an eyesore from my POV (and likely from most western homeowners on that road).

I'm surprised that zoning allowed it. No problem in the temple itself but if built in the middle of a residential area, I'd want 2 additional criteria. A traffic light for temple services (again, it was just a 2-lane highway) and nice tall cypress trees to better hide it from view.

I fully admit this is a prejudice/bias. I would still be critical of a church being built opposite me but admit I wouldn't be as critical as that is more of a "norm".

As if listening to months and months of political ads hasn't been bad enough, we're now down to the final few days and the GOP governor candidate has pulled out the big guns, releasing a couple of Trump-narrated commercials. My wife and I have been muting the TV pretty much during all commercials for the past couple of months. Tonight, when we heard Trump's voice, we both reached for the remote and I accidentally switched it from YTTV to Netflix. I told my wife I'd rather watch Netflix than listen to NutFucks.

There have been a couple of attempts at building a new mosque near me - both got blocked by local commissions, one in 2000 and one in 2007, the latter bringing about a lawsuit (though I think it was from the prospective seller of the 224 acre farm). It looks like a new site was finally found this year.

Orthodox care about Israel, the rest don't. Israel is mostly about evangelical Christians who fetishize it.

It's hilarious that Muslims would think they would have it better under a Trump administration (in America). Trump was a huge Netanyahu fan, wanted them to move the embassy to Jerusalem, and was generally in favor of settlements and more. He also wanted to ban travel from Muslim countries. But hey, vote for him because Biden has not scolded Israel enough.

I think it is more a "stay home" situation. It is just as moronic because it helps elect the guy who would happily deport them from the country just by the basis of their religion, but on its own understandable as the Biden administration has miss played this spectacularly. Of course, I really don't see a way Biden could have threaded this needle.

Seems like there is no difference between candidates on the issue. So why bother showing up? "Not funding genocide" feels like a pretty low bar for a Presidential candidate to pass to get your vote.

Ah, the single issue voter that dems mocked conservatives for being in their support for abortion bans.

When it comes to Israel, there wouldn't be much difference between anyone that has a reasonable shot at the White House. The President alone isn't going to being able to against decades of history and congress . When it comes to allies, sometimes you have to be friends with shitty people to keep your interests safe. It sucks, but it's the reality of the world we live in. Biden has at least acknowledged that there has to be a 2 state solution once this over whereas Trump would likely be pushing Israel to just drop a nuke on Palestine. But, both sides. It's all the same. We should just vote for Trump because they're essentially the same person trying to destroy our democracy, they're both openly talking about banning and deporting Palestinians from the country, and they both tried to make peace deals between Israel and Palestine that effectively annexed Palestine, correct?

Not voting for Biden over this when the alternative is as bad as it could be is one of the stupidest things I could imagine anyone on the left doing. And, of course, if Trump were to win in this scenario we'd again have those that didn't vote for Biden blaming the Biden supporters for Trump being President. 2016 all over again.

Nice, Joe. Nice

Fresh revelations contradict Joe Biden’s sweeping denials on Hunter - POLITICO

It's pretty obvious the below original statement is inaccurate.


They've tried to amend that statement without actually saying they're amending it. So, GOP continues to pick at it.

All this because the black sheep couldn't remember to pay for his laptop repairs and abandoned the laptop.

Whatever happened to the simpler times when idiot family members were like Billy Carter and Roger Clinton?

Why would Dems mock conservatives on that? The conservatives won. Roe v Wade was overturned. It's illegal in half the states. Seemed like their strategy worked.

Now maybe you can overlook your tax dollars paying for some light genocide if he was crushing it domestically, but he doesn't do shit here either. Oh I guess I can get a $500 rebate if I switch to an electric stove. 4 more years!

The funniest part of the Hunter Biden thing is that the people who bribed Hunter were actually mad in the e-mails that Hunter wasn't able to get to his Dad at all.

What is it Israel provides us as an ally? The negatives seem to far outweight the positives here.