2nd wave will be brutal

So do we call this plague the White Death?

Not here - BAME population is disproportionately affected by CV19 in the UK, in terms of deaths at any rate.

Lot’s of proposed factors, such as tend to live in urban areas, fill more key worker roles, and (certainly with the Asian population) sometimes live in larger family groups in one property, but the numbers are statistically significant.

Virologists would have noticed that a long while ago, pretty much right from the go. Plus, not how coronaviruses operate. They do mutate but extremely subtly and not going from extremely harmless to this without many more mutations in between, if ever. When they jump species, that is the problem.

Coronavirus mutations: Much ado about nothing - CNN

As an aside: SARS Cov2 actually has dozens of 'strains' already but they are still functionally ecactly the same virus and will be for a looooong time.

I guess my joke was a pre-emptive joke considering the angry white mob will be the cause of more widespread infection.

Article is on what if we can't find a vaccine for coronavirus (e.g. like HIV). Didn't think that a possibility and the article says we probably can find one, but a quick and easy read.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/03/healt...ntl/index.html

We talked about the waste of killing and tossing chickens, pigs etc. This article talks about eggs, milk, potatoes, fresh vegetables & produce also going to waste.

Basically Fed, State (NY), and students (good for those college kids!) are buying and redistributing. Won't nearly solve the challenge but at least some progress.

‘We Had to Do Something’: Trying to Prevent Massive Food Waste

Be careful with this divisiveness.

:confused:

Yeah. And I'm trying to keep my temper, but when I read things like Pilotman about to lose his job and then realizing it is likely all for naught because you can't really expect a 26-year-old white girl in Brooklyn from missing out on boozy brunch two weekends in a row, I feel a real deep unhealthy anger.

This model and the basic math makes more sense than the Washington model that is saying 77k death by August which we are going to reach in a few days.

Reopening states will cause 233,000 more people to die from coronavirus, according to Wharton model

Conversely, I was in downtown Decatur yesterday visiting my mom and took her for a walk. More people than last week, but still hardly anyone around even though lots of the restaurants are doing take out. I live near Mason Mill and avoid those areas as much as possible, but it's on my bike route to Emory, where I still have to go a few days.

What is divisive about his comment?

It was a comment about how races are affected differently by something. Based on the previous discussions over the las 48-72 hours, that counts as being divisive.

So, three different Russian doctors have now fallen from hospital windows after complaining about PPE shortages and being forced to work.

I guess nuance is hard

SI

US reported only 1,154 deaths on Sun according to worldometers. This is suspiciously low (and we've hypothesized that reporting isn't always up to date on weekends).

But I'll take the small victories.

"A fine goal for the government is to balance restarting the economy with avoiding a new wave of infections.

My goal is that I never get covid-19, my wife never gets it, my mom never gets it, and my kids never get it. Never. And I'm not balancing that against anything."

Saw this on twitter. I wonder how many people feel this way.

What if you open up the economy and no one shows up?

I mean it's the Russian version of firing the Inspector General who talked about it in March here. We just haven't gotten to the point where we'll kill them yet but we will ruin their careers and take away their livelihoods.

If you reopen it and no one shows up, no harm, no foul, because no one came because they were staying home.

But then we don't get the economic boom of reopening that people are predicting, either.

Also, it does create a different set of winners and losers. Most business interruption insurance kicks in if there is a government ordered shutdown. But if the business is legally open and no come comes, then you don't get the insurance.

So I would expect that legally reopening things before people feel safe is probably bad for small businesses and good for insurance companies in the aggregate.

dola: And I have no idea which is better for society in the short/medium/long term. A bunch of insurance companies going bankrupt at the same time seems like the sort of thing that might cause a 2008-style meltdown.

Maybe better to "open" the country and let some small businesses fail instead.

Or maybe that's worse.

This shit is well, well above my paygrade.

Is it really that simple though? Let’s say the economy is “open“ and therefore businesses are expected to pay their rent on time. I own a small restaurant and I am leasing a building for it. Am I able to make payments if I’m never over 60% capacity because a good chunk of folks are staying home? Can barbershops survive if a third of their patrons decide to just keep doing it themselves? Home workout equipment sold out rapidly once lockdowns went into place, and is still difficult to find. Some percentage of those folks are simply going to stop paying gym memberships. I suspect a lot of folks are underestimating or discounting some of the residual impacts of this whole thing. Depending on where you live, lockdowns in some form have been in place for a good 6 to 8 weeks now. That is long enough for some people to develop entirely new rhythms and habits.

Heh. Semi cross-post with albion there. Was writing it slowly while walking the dog.

Double dola: but yeah, I guess the bottom line thing is that I suspect there are portions of our economy that simply can't operate if we're below 80ish% participation. If--apart from the virus--unemployment were to get high enough, we'd have a domino effect with many small businesses closing simply because there wouldn't be enough people spending enough money to keep them afloat, right? (I'm no economist, but that seems like common sense...)

OPening because of a date has always been the wrong idea. We need clear public health metrics defined and communicated and we need the federal government to manage testing, quarantine policy, and contact tracing.

Instead, it's May, so we've largely decided to just stop trying and see what happens.

dola

All of the violence and threats of violence due to mask requirements is very depressing. If we can't even agree to that minor inconvenience, we really are fucked.

Washington's 4 phase plan is really well done and thought out. The problem is people are simply losing patience and aren't as scared of this as they were 4-6 weeks ago.

NJ schools closed for the year. Took them long enough. I am relieved more than anything.

It is common sense and I think it is going to be disastrous.

I follow a lot of gambling Twitter and the plans to reopen Vegas are insane. 3 people per blackjack table, 4 per poker, 6 per craps, every other slot machine turned off, Plexiglas partitions between seats, etc...The cost just to keep the lights on in those places is enormous. They have to operate close to capacity. lets also remember no one is hopping on a plane to Vegas anytime soon.

Most restaurants operate on a slim margin as well. Without the full bar and 20 minute wait on Friday and Saturday night they won't be able to stay afloat.

Leaked CDC document predicts 3000 deaths a day by June.

The exact accuracy of the number is less important to me than the fact that the WH is pushing so strongly for re-opening when their own experts are saying things will get worse.

Not a surprise. Those protests are going to create a horrible situation.

I assume they are predict it to get worse because of the opening up. we are way down on deaths today only 500 so looks like the stay at home helped if that continues but agree we will likely see it go back up with people starting to not give a shit again.

Sunday/Monday was super low last week as well.


At the very least there should be local 'systems' in place to test fucking everybody living in any sort of care facility until everybody comes back negative twice, then periodically. As well as everybody working there twice a week forever. Then do the same for everybody offering ambulant care services (which can be as benign as physiotherapy), everybody working at a doctors Office. That should be the absolute lowest goal to shoot for ASAP.

I think the biggest mistake/tragedy is that somehow a global pandemic became a political issue and not a scientific/medical issue. This should have been a unifying event. It does make me lose a little faith in humanity.

For my state's reports, I always compare to the same day as the prior week. For PA new cases were down slightly Sunday vs. Sunday. The state is mostly still closed except for near Erie.

My county has a 10% mortality rate. 122 cases and 13 dead. But most of them have come from a nursing home. Both the illnesses and deaths.

But we opened up today. Should be interesting.

The recession/depression from this is going to be devastating to so many small businesses.

And then it's going to be compounded by a financial crisis as we burst a commercial real estate bubble that people were talking about before COVID:
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Error Page
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...ind-2020-01-29

Small businesses are going to get crushed. Their assets are going to get bought on the cheap by larger competitors. Individuals are going to get squeezed by unemployment, real wage deflation, and purchasing inflation. This is just going to be one giant robbery where more money gets consolidated at the top and the rest of us get screwed.

SI

The other problem is that people know human nature and still fail to account for it.
I think it was taking something that disproportionately affects certain segments of the population and demanding everyone sacrifice equally. Sure there was plenty of confusion but we should have been focusing on protecting seniors first and working backwards from there.

People have different risk tolerances & will make decisions based off that. It's why I've been saying the whole time that people weren't going to put up with the draconian restrictions for months on end when there really isn't a huge threat to them personally, and the real discussion should be about how many deaths we're willing to accept instead of pretending most people will be okay putting their lives on hold indefinitely.

I think the timing makes a huge difference here. By late May it's hot enough in most of the country to limit how much the virus spreads. Beginning of May, not so much. I do think sometime in May is the right time for gradual reopening. I just happen to think it's more mid-late, not the start of the month. Having said that, I'd be surprised if we see the kinds of numbers being talked about by Wharton, CDC, etc. I just don't see that.

Did another Publix delivery order-really like how quickly they get to it, and the options they have for substitutions. I could see what she was finding as she found it, and in a couple cases text with her on potential replacements.

Still a no-go on Bounty Napkins, and tried paper towels for the first time-no luck on getting a multi-roll pack and had to settle for just getting one roll. Still have a couple here, so no biggie yet.

Ground Beef, at least with the percentage of fat we want continues to be a problem to get,

So you know better than Wharton and the CDC? Okay.

Are businesses not expected to pay rent on time now? I've heard of it some where, but not plugged in enough to know if that is universal or not.

I agree 100% on the concerns, my wife is finally getting on board with eating out less and meal planning more, we're not 100% there, but we're significantly better than we were. I've been pounding that for 19 years. If changing habits become universal, I think a lot of jobs are going to be in danger regardless of opening now or later if they take hold. Better off opening sooner rather than later in the case of those jobs. To your point, the longer we establish new habits, the less likely we revert to the old ones.

I tried having a hypothetical discussion on FB which was a mistake. To the best of everyone's knowledge and according to my doctor I had it. It has been roughly 5 weeks since I had any symptoms, if I choose to go out in a community with roughly 571 people per square mile and less than 150 cases out of a total population of 235,000, should I be allowed to take my chances regarding facial masks.

It basically came down to me being an asshole because I was not cognizant of the feelings of my fellow citizens who had no idea of whether I had it or not. Plus there were those who were saying that there is no data on whether or not you can have it twice (my own feeling on this is nearly every disease you can be reinfected with, is either a different strain, or significant time elapses between illness which is caused by the T-cells responsible for that infection dying off). Since there is no direct evidence you can be, I am leaning towards every other illness out there.

I was just flat out amazed at the response. I mean here I am abiding by everything that has come down the line here in Ohio, being berated by people that have flouted rules in their area (and posted about it) and I'm the asshole about not considering my fellow citizens in a hypothetical situation.

But is it so hard to wear the mask?

I was able to get an 8 pack of Bounty Paper Towels delivered in about a week, ordered through Target

Cool something to keep in mind if Walmart doesn't have it

So, looking ahead, what will the "we gotta open everything NOW" crowd blame the rebound in deaths on, when it happens in about 4-6 weeks?

Where I live we are catching up, moreso than all the cities around us which is weird. Anyway, it was amusing this weekend as one customer got the trifecta of toilet paper, paper towel, and disinfectant wipes. Usually you can get the second one, but not the others. Virtually didn't care about anything else once she heard was going to get all three of those.

Not really saying that so much as I need a logical reason to believe it'll get that high. We were open for February/March, all the spring break shenanigans that happened etc. and didn't see that kind of spike. Why would it happen bigger now? Add that to how inaccurate most of the models have been - they're doing the best they can with limited/bad information so it's more just an endemic failure of imperfect models - my question is just where's the logic in having several times more death than we've seen with a warming climate and more aware public? So much depends on weather and who opens what when … what assumptions are they using on those questions?