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-   -   COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778) (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=96561)

ISiddiqui 04-21-2020 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3276443)
I need a haircut but will wait 2-3 weeks to see if cases continue to decrease and if hospitals/ICU/ventilators/healthcare workers are more freed up.

My problem with Kemp is there is no communication. In my line of work, we impact a lot of people with "change". So we tell people change is coming, we tell them what the change is, why the change is happening, how it will impact them, train them for the change, measure their acceptance of the change etc. and then update & mitigate as needed.

On Sun/Mon, Kemp says we are opening up this Fri and here minimal details. But there are no real details, no planning, no training or rules yet. If people could see there was a plan, I can see it being accepted and adhered to better.


And apparently mayors in Georgia weren't told about this before he said it. Which is terrible in terms of planning. Now mayors have to figure out how to get ahead of it in 5 days - without being able to set more stringent restrictions for flash point cities.

whomario 04-21-2020 10:04 AM

The List of stuff opening in Georgia reads like he got a recommendation and his assistant forgot to copy the title "This should be opened last" and the bottom saying "bars and nightclubs".

grdawg 04-21-2020 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3276449)
It’s almost as if a governor who won a rigged election isn’t qualified.


Yup and I think we are seeing how under qualified a lot of our leaders are in this country. It is really easy to be a governor of the state when you don't really have to do much and just collect a pay check, but when the shit hits the fan, are you going to step up and lead or are you going to make the problem worse with your lack of leadership. We are seeing this play out in many states.

I wonder if this will have any impact going forward if people will elect people that are qualified or it will just continue along party lines. Unfortunately, most likely nothing will change.

Warhammer 04-21-2020 10:45 AM

This is true on both sides of the aisle. Democrat and Republican leaders are the same in this regard. They are so beholden to their donors, they do not have the ability to think and lead on their own. Many of these guys are selected to be the front runner because they are photogenic and charismatic, but the ability to lead does not necessarily require either of these (although charisma does help).

Not sure if I related this here or at another forum, but a few years back, it must have been 2017, I was flying next to a Republican election consultant. He was grilling me on why I was drifting away from the party despite being conservative. I pointed out a number of issues, too long to list here, but the upshot of all this, he started discussing the candidates and how these guys act when the lights are not on them.

Essentially, these guys have been so programmed what to say, they cannot think on their feet. Its why debates are worthless today. Candidates have a list of talking points to talk to, and if they go off script, things go south in a hurry. The donors pick telegenic people they think voters can connect to. Its why the parties are so quick to elevate and then discard candidates, they are trying to find out who more people get behind so the donor's agenda can be driven forward.

It was all pretty fascinating stuff and completely changed my view of candidates.

molson 04-21-2020 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Warhammer (Post 3276466)

Not sure if I related this here or at another forum


You're seeing other forums? Wow.

Kodos 04-21-2020 10:51 AM

We will not be your cuckold!

BishopMVP 04-21-2020 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirFozzie (Post 3276419)
If you want to see what they did in Taiwan to crush the curve, I found this interesting reading:
...
That is the reason that Taiwan sports were able to resume. Now, without getting political, would you see ANY of the things that Taiwan did working in the US?

I'm not sure sports being played without spectators is a good metric. With the billions of dollars on the line & small rosters there's no reason the NBA couldn't quarantine a small island or a big ranch and play games with no spectators. Not all of the players would want to self isolate with their teammates like that, and the owners don't want to do it because they'd lose a ton in start up costs and not having fans, but the logistics on that seem a lot easier than stopping countrywide spread.

IlliniCub 04-21-2020 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by grdawg (Post 3276457)
Yup and I think we are seeing how under qualified a lot of our leaders are in this country. It is really easy to be a governor of the state when you don't really have to do much and just collect a pay check, but when the shit hits the fan, are you going to step up and lead or are you going to make the problem worse with your lack of leadership. We are seeing this play out in many states.

I wonder if this will have any impact going forward if people will elect people that are qualified or it will just continue along party lines. Unfortunately, most likely nothing will change.

I really disliked our governor in Illinois until this crisis. I've really grown to respect men like Cuomo and Pritzker.

RainMaker 04-21-2020 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whomario (Post 3276455)
The List of stuff opening in Georgia reads like he got a recommendation and his assistant forgot to copy the title "This should be opened last" and the bottom saying "bars and nightclubs".


Seems like a way to get people off unemployment by picking who he believes are the most expendable people in the state.

RainMaker 04-21-2020 02:00 PM

https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2

Arles 04-21-2020 02:11 PM

for a 368-person study, a 10% difference in results doesn't seem that significant. But I do agree that there is no evidence to support using hydroxychloroquine with or without the azithromycin for COVID-19. That point needs to made clear if people are trying to use it off the books.

panerd 04-21-2020 03:04 PM

Trump sucks and is the worst before the response comes back to him but why the love for Coumo besides his political party? His state's numbers are worse than most countries and he is on record as saying this is no different than the flu as well. Guess I just dont get the love. (Well I mean I understand the media hype but not why ordinary people love him)

ISiddiqui 04-21-2020 03:26 PM

I don't get the love for Cuomo per se and most media rankings of the best Governor responses don't include Cuomo - usually its DeWine, Newsom, Hogan, Whitmer. I think the way he talks about this stuff is just good news copy.

Lathum 04-21-2020 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by panerd (Post 3276543)
Trump sucks and is the worst before the response comes back to him but why the love for Coumo besides his political party? His state's numbers are worse than most countries and he is on record as saying this is no different than the flu as well. Guess I just dont get the love. (Well I mean I understand the media hype but not why ordinary people love him)


Because he talks like a grown up.

50% of Trumps problem is his inability to communicate and act like a normal person.

RainMaker 04-21-2020 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3276558)
Because he talks like a grown up.


This. We have incredibly low standards in this country.

Inslee, DeWine, and Newsom have handled this much better but are not on TV everyday or in a media hot bed.

Brian Swartz 04-21-2020 03:58 PM

Perhaps the discussion of what governors have done well would be better placed in the Trump thread.

Brian Swartz 04-21-2020 04:04 PM

Another Tuesday spike, probably due to the weekend reporting issues as before, but if we're past the peak in terms of deaths it isn't by much yet.

CrimsonFox 04-21-2020 04:13 PM

Who wants to tell her....


RainMaker 04-21-2020 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arles (Post 3276529)
for a 368-person study, a 10% difference in results doesn't seem that significant. But I do agree that there is no evidence to support using hydroxychloroquine with or without the azithromycin for COVID-19. That point needs to made clear if people are trying to use it off the books.


The NIH is recommending not to use it now. Seems to be a trend around the world as more data comes in.

There has been some early promising results from remdesivir from what I'm reading. And I'm sure a bunch of other treatments are being tested around the world. There is no shortage of patients. Hopefully something works.

Edward64 04-21-2020 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox (Post 3276567)
Who wants to tell her....



Nah, looks photo-shopped to me.

Edward64 04-21-2020 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3276560)
Perhaps the discussion of what governors have done well would be better placed in the Trump thread.


We all fail to not go there in this thread ...

Brian Swartz 04-21-2020 04:44 PM

So an anecdotal bit of positive news. Obviously the group of people ordering from a shopping service are going to skew towards the more cautious, but so far since I started yesterday almost every order is using the 'drop-off' option, which means no physical contact at all between the shopper and the customer, just set the bags at their door and leave. On the negative side, I'm amazed at the number of other shoppers not wearing masks.

miked 04-21-2020 04:53 PM

As I stated earlier in this thread, the risks and side effects far outweigh any benefit, and you probably do not need to increase your sample size. I am currently running 2 clinical trials (not on that) and would have long been frozen by the FDA with those kids of AE and SAE reports.

CrimsonFox 04-21-2020 05:29 PM


PilotMan 04-21-2020 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3276584)
On the negative side, I'm amazed at the number of other shoppers not wearing masks.


Went to Fresh Thyme Market, every worker and almost all customers wearing masks. Went to Ace Hardware, no workers, almost no customers wearing masks. Ace is sort of like 'everyday' KY, while Fresh Thyme is called "The Hippie Market" by my wife for a reason.

RainMaker 04-21-2020 06:39 PM

I would say 90% of people here are wearing masks in stores. Big mix between N95, paper, cloth, and just wrapping a scarf around their nose and mouth. People have been pretty good with distancing too.

Edward64 04-21-2020 06:54 PM

Not sure how reputable they are but a scary visual.

https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publi...ashes-not-like

miami_fan 04-21-2020 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miked (Post 3276586)
As I stated earlier in this thread, the risks and side effects far outweigh any benefit, and you probably do not need to increase your sample size. I am currently running 2 clinical trials (not on that) and would have long been frozen by the FDA with those kids of AE and SAE reports.


So to use your expertise...

Let's say that a drug has a 100% cure rate for CV but the sample size was smaller than this trial. Would they take the chance to rush it to the field or would they still increase the sample size just to make sure? Or whatever option 3 would be?

stevew 04-21-2020 07:48 PM

Our Wal Mart has directional arrows for each aisle which are conveniently ignored by all the boomers.

miked 04-21-2020 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miami_fan (Post 3276618)
So to use your expertise...

Let's say that a drug has a 100% cure rate for CV but the sample size was smaller than this trial. Would they take the chance to rush it to the field or would they still increase the sample size just to make sure? Or whatever option 3 would be?


Well, that initial sample size would really matter. And don't forget, this is the field they are testing it in. So if a drug were to come along and cure 90/90 patients in a reputable place, my guess is that they would expand it greatly (if they could) and get emergency use of this for a much larger trial. They may get around the placebo controlled initially due to the ongoing mortality, but a lot of things like sex, race, age, and other factors would need to be considered. Also, if a drug has already passed Phase I safety trials, it could be pushed out fast with fastracked FDA approvals for a large trial.

CrimsonFox 04-21-2020 08:37 PM

I'm sure other countries don't give a rats ass about wanting to come to the US now that we are the biggest carrier of the disease so shutting down immigration is a bit stupid

whomario 04-22-2020 07:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miked (Post 3276621)
Well, that initial sample size would really matter. And don't forget, this is the field they are testing it in. So if a drug were to come along and cure 90/90 patients in a reputable place, my guess is that they would expand it greatly (if they could) and get emergency use of this for a much larger trial. They may get around the placebo controlled initially due to the ongoing mortality, but a lot of things like sex, race, age, and other factors would need to be considered. Also, if a drug has already passed Phase I safety trials, it could be pushed out fast with fastracked FDA approvals for a large trial.


Thanks for your insight :)

Yeah, absolutely. After all, "curing" someone is pretty hard to prove on an individual basis without context and a good sample group, especially with a still new disease.
I mean, in the french hydrochloquine study everybody in the controll group was 'cured' as well ;) Does that mean that no medication works best ? Obviously not.

And we have already seen drugs approved way faster that other times and maybe even earlier than many are comfortable with. Both Hydrochloroquine and Remdesivir for example. Both were tested for safety, obviously. But just from my obviously layman perspective: that is propably still not equivalent to actually being safe to use here with this specific set of patients with this specific diesease. Because that's not a disease that past tests envisioned it being used for, so nobody could have tested if it is safe for patients being in the shape they are now. Just because the side effects are still considered "safe" for a Malaria or Lupus patient doesn't mean it is safe for a patient suffering from a vastly different disease.

Remdesivir presumably a bit 'closer'/being a better analogue than Hydrochlorquine.

panerd 04-22-2020 07:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevew (Post 3276619)
Our Wal Mart has directional arrows for each aisle which are conveniently ignored by all the boomers.


From my experiences shopping at Walmart pre-pandemic I'm pretty sure this isn't intentional ignoring on their part. :-)

JPhillips 04-22-2020 08:37 AM

Not that we knew it at the time, but autopsy data has pushed back the first U.S. death to Feb. 6 in the San Francisco area.

albionmoonlight 04-22-2020 08:44 AM

I am irrationally hopeful about Remdesivir.

Edward64 04-22-2020 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3276677)
I am irrationally hopeful about Remdesivir.


Me too. Also on Z-Pak (relatively easily available) but think that may be falling to the wayside.

sterlingice 04-22-2020 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3276678)
Me too. Also on Z-Pak (relatively easily available) but think that may be falling to the wayside.


Well, Z-Paks were never going to be something to treat Coronavirus directly. They would be for secondary infections.

SI

CrimsonFox 04-22-2020 12:09 PM

Autopsy: Santa Clara patient died of COVID-19 on Feb. 6 — 23 days before 1st U.S. death declared - SFGate

miami_fan 04-22-2020 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miked (Post 3276621)
Well, that initial sample size would really matter. And don't forget, this is the field they are testing it in. So if a drug were to come along and cure 90/90 patients in a reputable place, my guess is that they would expand it greatly (if they could) and get emergency use of this for a much larger trial. They may get around the placebo controlled initially due to the ongoing mortality, but a lot of things like sex, race, age, and other factors would need to be considered. Also, if a drug has already passed Phase I safety trials, it could be pushed out fast with fastracked FDA approvals for a large trial.


Thank you!

whomario 04-22-2020 12:31 PM

See how coronavirus can spread through a population, and how countries flatten the curve | World news | The Guardian

Very easy and comprehensible, especially if graphics work better than text for you

Kodos 04-22-2020 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whomario (Post 3276716)
See how coronavirus can spread through a population, and how countries flatten the curve | World news | The Guardian

Very easy and comprehensible, especially if graphics work better than text for you


Good stuff. Thanks for linking to it.

Butter 04-22-2020 01:49 PM

I saw in the RANDOM thread people talking about restaurants. How are people's eating habits changing around this?

I would say we used to eat out pretty much every night. Now we are cooking 5 nights a week and getting carryout about 2. I have been getting drive-thrus for lunch about 3 days a week just for time considerations around work. We live pretty close to several drive-thrus.

The carryout for dinner is from 2 good local restaurants that we're hoping survive. The times I have gotten carryout/delivery from large chains, it has been 50% something wrong with the order. Wrong wing sauce, one time we got only half-cooked chicken breasts, one time an entire missing item. Have yet to have anything go wrong with the good local places.

That's also about the only times I've gone out other than grocery shopping. Also have found it hard to stick to a diet, but that's neither here nor there.

What about you, what are you eating nowadays?

ISiddiqui 04-22-2020 02:07 PM

We used to go out for dinner 1-2 times a week. Now we are doing takeout once a week (and every few weeks maybe an additional time). We've changed our Blue Apron meals from every 2 weeks to every week. Started ordering a Misfit Market box for veggies. And are overmaxxing our grocery budget (though it helps our brunch budget has been $0 for the last two months).

I tend to eat out for lunch every day while in the office.. so I'm saving like $50-$60 a week just on that alone. Not to mention the coffee costs.

I've also noticed that I eat too much for lunch. When you spend $10+ on lunch you tend to eat all of it. I eat a couple slices of pizza or some leftovers for lunch and I've lost like 10lbs.

JPhillips 04-22-2020 02:12 PM

It's been maybe a month since we ate out.

Atocep 04-22-2020 02:13 PM

I'm still going into work 3 days per week while the wife is furloughed. No real changes to our dinner plans as we had cut eating out for dinner down to maybe 1 time per week starting a year or so ago.

The wife is saving quite a bit by not eating out for lunch each day and not stopping at Starbucks each morning.

cuervo72 04-22-2020 02:32 PM

There was a time when we probably ate out 3-4 times a week, and ordered out a couple of times on top of that. As a family of four. That shifted a bit when my wife went to full-time a few years ago (fewer out, more takeout) and obviously changed when my son went to school. Add to that my daughter's eating habits (let's say vegetarian to save time) and we were lucky to go out once a week. Or my wife and I would go out when my daughter was doing her own thing. But we had our usual Monday order from the corner pizza place, Wawa once or twice a week, Chipotle, Domino's (can never have enough pizza!), etc.

At work at one point I'd spend maybe $10/day at the cafeteria, a little more if we went out for lunch or I doubled up and got breakfast and lunch. I started curtailing that a couple of months ago.

During the lockdown, we are pretty much down to the corner pizza place, an occasional order from the corner Mexican place (we'd like to see them stay in business), and a lot of cooking at home. Some of that's cheap ($1 pasta, $1 sauce, $2-$3 garlic toast), some not (Honeybaked ham AND turkey for Easter...). Gotta make more now that the boy is home, but we did get some $700 or so back in meal plan refunds. Overall, we are bound to be spending less. Probably a lot less.

JPhillips 04-22-2020 02:39 PM

Las Vegas mayor is offering her city up as a control group to see what happens when everything is open.

albionmoonlight 04-22-2020 02:40 PM

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...s-blood-clots/

GoldenEagle 04-22-2020 03:30 PM

UofL breakthrough technology shows promise fighting novel coronavirus | UofL News

Lathum 04-22-2020 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3276759)
Las Vegas mayor is offering her city up as a control group to see what happens when everything is open.


She is insane

Amazing what happens when the Mayor of a major city is the wife of a mob lawyer. If we learn nothing else from this crisis it's elections have consequences.



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