I would absolutely consider a viable Democratic alternative to Biden. RFK, Jr. nor Bernie are, because they are not Democrats.

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Nor is Williamson viable.

Where is our Zelenskyy?


Where is the outsider, who can articulate his words clearly, has a sense of humor, and understands the true gravity of the situation and what will happen if Rs take control of the government for another 4 years (or 8)?

Mark Kelly is the strongest candidate they could run but they never would.

Jon Stewart.

I agree, but I don't see him ever running.

I would run to the polls to vote for Mark Kelly. But I don't how much of it is "they" and how much of it is he isn't willing to go against an incumbent. That makes anybodies run an uphill battle. As good as a candidate as he seems. I don't know if he has the stomach for it.

True. The abuse his wife would take is unfathomable.

But I still don't think the Democratic establihsment would be fond of him. Even if you don't want him as President, he should be a guy at the front of the party. But that's still the job of lifelong pols who do nothing like Durbin, Schumer, Pelosi, etc.

JB Pritzker

The closest was Al Franken and well, he had to resign because he didn't actually rape someone like Trump.

You are absolutely not wrong about how badly Democratic leadership needs new faces. Unfortunately it is all about connections and egos. At least Pelosi finally stepped down, but there are probably 10 senators that would be a better face of the party than Schumer, and Kelly is one of them.

I would also vote kelly. And for sure Stewart.

Make America Florida? Are you fucking kidding me?

Worst slogan ever.

On the one hand, the markets aren't freaking out about the debt limit, and you think that Wall St. has ears on the Hill and would be freaking out if things looked that dire.

On the other hand, this feels kind of January 6th-like. All the signs are there that something horrible is going to happen, including the people in charge saying openly what they intend to do (prevent the peaceful transition of power, refuse to raise the debt ceiling), and our complacent sense of "Well, they'd never really do that" is blinding us to the reality of what is going to happen.

True dat. It makes sound like Florida is superior to every other state. And anyone with any bit of state pride is likely to offended. And you know Americans love being offended these days.

Yeah, and the "Florida man" thing is a thing even outside of politics.

I'm definitely curious what conservative Idahoans and Texans think of that slogan. From what I've seen (at least being around the former), they mock Florida just like everyone else.

I'm fairly certain there's a sizeable portion of the House GOP that wants to see a default.

especially conservatives.

Been saying it almost daily. I am 100% of the opinion they will default to make Biden look bad in hopes of winning next year.

Just like Trump said if he loses the election was stolen, and when he lost that idea was deeply implanted already. The GOP is saying a default is Bidens fault. The seed is already planted.

A big part of this - as we've seen with the KY GOP governor race - is going to be a retelling of the Covid period as one big conservative success/liberal failure. They are going to synthesize 3+ years' worth of ups and downs into a simple "we kept the state open and were right all along" despite the data showing otherwise (especially early on) and despite the open hostility toward vaccines, which have a lot to do with where we are now. Bank on it.

Yeah, I just don't think any persuadable voter is going to be swayed by anything covid related in 2024. The people that care about that are already locked into their party.

Matt Gaetz openly said he wants no deal.

This guy has the most punchable face in congress, got to where he is on Daddy's money and privilege, shady character, morally bankrupt and all in on blowing up anything he can to own the libs, screw the fact that one of the hardest hit states will be Florida.

NBC is reporting from Miami this week; one of their stories was the population increase in FL and the reasons for it. Some said taxes, some weather. At least one ex-New Yorker cited Florida's opening things up post-COVID. (Young, professional A-A mom with a toddler.)

I think some, although a small, number will see that as a reason to vote R, I just don't think they are at this point persuadable. Maybe it matters to get them to turn out, but I just don't think 2024 is going to be decided by persuading voters regarding covid.

Maybe they are counting on it helping with turnout. But I can guarantee you that between Covid restrictions and vaccine mandates, they are looking forward to holding Biden "accountable" for everything Covid-related that they couldn't blame him for pre-2021.

Covid and woke are at the heart of Make America Florida, if that is really where he's going with his campaign theme.

It's going to rally the far right, but I don't think plays well outside the GOP base. This really seems like something to court Trump voters more than an attempt to win a general election.

None of it matters if he doesn't start going directly at Trump though. Trump serves shit up on a platter to attack him with and no one on the GOP side seems to have the ball to go at him directly.

The only plan any of these bozo's have on dealing with Trump that I can see is that they are betting seeing him in court and/or him getting convicted of a felony might allow them to overtake him. I wouldn't put money on it working, but they refuse to go after him knowing that his base will never forgive them if they do.

You aren’t winning trumps base regardless. They will either stay home out of spite or still vote for him.

Exactly what I think, but that is obviously not their thoughts. If they didn't think there was at least a chance he will falter, then why bother?

Well, someone's got to replace Carlson. That's one reason to jump in the fray.

A nice article that sums up the debt ceiling positions.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/25/debt...re-making.html

Relatively easy ones

Quote:

Energy and mining permitting reform ... The talks could get dicey over the question of what kinds of permits to prioritize: Republicans want fossil fuels, while many Democrats believe renewable energy should top the list.

If fossil fuel means primarily oil & gas, I'm onboard. Still need to buy more time as we transition. If it means coal, probably not unless we need to get Manchin's vote to pass the compromise.

Quote:

Rescind unused COVID-19 funds ... estimates that about $30 billion of that money has not been earmarked and could be clawed back

Same thing that happens to budgets in commercial companies. Use it or lose it.

Trickier ones

Quote:

New work requirements for Medicaid ... require able bodied adults with no children to work or train for work in order to stay on Medicaid

Article says this is a Biden sticking point. I don't get it. Able bodied, no children seems like a good filter.

Quote:

Changes to current work requirements for food stamps: Unlike the Medicaid demands, it appears there could be some room for compromise on GOP proposals to raise the work retirement age window for people enrolled in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), from 50 to 55 years old.

This, not above, is what I'd think Joe would have most heartburn on (article says he has less). Unlike above, no filter on able bodied, no children.

The biggest one

Quote:

A federal budget baseline number in 2024 that is lower than it was in 2023: This is the biggest sticking point in the whole process, and the issue over which the talks have broken down temporarily a few times.

Quote:

McCarthy wants 2024 baseline spending to be rolled back to its 2022 level. Yet he also insists that defense spending — which makes up more than 30% of the total — be insulated from any cuts. This means everything else would need to be slashed even further to get the overall number back to 2022 levels. According to the conservative-leaning CATO Institute, exempting the military from a spending rollback would require cutting the rest of government — everything from homeland security to public health to air traffic control — by around 20%.

Other than defense, a 20% across the table cut seems unreasonable. Yeah, this is be THE main sticking point.


Other GOP wants but have "not brought to the table"

Quote:

Repeal the electric vehicle tax credits at the center of Biden’s renewable energy agenda, which were passed last year in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Against this

Quote:

Repeal $80 billion in additional funding for the Internal Revenue Service, also part of the IRA.

Transformation is needed but $80B transformation is excessive. There should be room to trim some. I would like to see the detailed plan, and assumptions. My guess is this is not what the numerous transformation/consulting companies came up with under a RFP bid. More like an internal, let's ask for the world knowing we'll only get a part of it.

Quote:

Overturn Biden’s executive action to forgive approximately $315 billion worth of student loan debt. (The Supreme Court will decide the plan’s fate in the coming weeks).

I'm in favor for repealing unless some additional conditions are put in. But where it stands right now, I agree let SCOTUS decide.

Quote:

Enact the REINS Act, which would require regulatory agencies like the Federal Trade Commission and the Environmental Protection Agency to get congressional approval before they could issue major rules.

Unsure about this one.

What a bunch of clowns. I'm surprised they didn't just say, "Whatever Trump wants to cut!" That's about the extent of the non-performative roleplaying that passes for a GOP lawmaker these days.

Little-noted this wk: While McCarthy was all budget-cutting bravado in debt-limit talks with Biden, the House Appropriations panel canceled votes on 4 bills that must fill in gory details of the cuts the GOP is demanding. Divided Rs didn't have the votes.https://t.co/Wzdkn9lGUt

— Jackie Calmes (@jackiekcalmes) May 25, 2023

Also, a group of "hardliners" just issued more demands for them to bring to the table that include border policy changes and funding, having Yellen send them all of her computation work to "prove" there will be a default, and block FBI hq funding or they would vote no. We just can't keep living with this kind of crazy.

Time for the 14th amendment

You know since 1960 the debt ceiling has been raised 78 times, 49 of those under a GOP admin, but now it's time to fiscally responsible huh?

Mike Lee wants to slow walk the vote in the Senate, too, so probably.

Ronna McDaniel was on Fox News and said a default would be good for the republican party.

Good news, looks like they are getting close. Markets are optimistic about a deal.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/26/debt...elopments.html

As a federal government worker, I really hope that the rumors that they got rid of the possibility of a November shutdown by creating a default CR if not budget is reached are true.

Getting paid is one of my favorite things about working.

Not me. I work for the glory and joy of not relaxing at home.

I'm so tired of political games being played with my paycheck.

I actually wouldn't mind a small furlough. We had one in the late 00's recession, in state government, and had to take every other Friday off with the resulting paycut. But the best part was our supervisors making it clear that we were not to work a second longer than 72 hours over the 2 week period (when normally we were working way more, especially during busy times), and that we were expected to flood the courts with extension requests.

That comes from a place of entitlement and I do not hope for any kind of debt limit catastrophe or for anyone to be hurt by the economic conditions that create that kind of thing, but, I would definitely take a paycut for a little bit of a mandatory break. I'll be working all through Memorial Day weekend just on my normal stuff because we're so shorthanded.

Since I work in a hospital I don't get a furlough. They make us exempt but we're still not getting paid until a budget passes or whatever holdup is resolved.

I have no idea how it's legal, but historically that's what's happened here.

Sometimes I morbidly fantasize about what it would take for me to just - not be able to go into work anymore, or have to work unpaid. Like how far would government and society have to fall for nobody to care about the work of my particular agency. If the Trumpers succeeded and killed Pence and Pelosi and took over the government, would we just - continue on at the state level like nothing happened? When we have state constitutional mandated duties that impact peoples' lives?

Maybe we'll find out soon!

We contractors don't get furloughed, we just don't get paid. That's been fun in past shutdowns, when feds get back furloughed pay and they realize that hey, we don't!

We're also the first on the chopping block any time budgets get cut, or even frozen. (There of course there is no way for levels of service to stay the same on the same budget from year to year. Some costs inevitably go up. When they do, that money has to come from somewhere.)

How does a US default affect money market funds and such that are heavily invested in government securities? Like I genuinely don't know.

Depends which debts the Treasury decides to default on first. Then it'll be a race to see which causes those money markets to be worth nothing first - the insolvency of the bank or the default on the Treasury securities in it. Should be exciting!

One of the most openly corrupt politicians in the country might finally be facing the music. The Texas AG Ken Paxton has had 20 impeachment articles filed against him by the Texas House. Debate starts on them tomorrow at 1pm Central.

Nice, another 4 days to play with.

Saw something about how they were burning papers in a dumpster outside the office and he was soliciting donations recently from people charged with crimes for reduced sentences. Law and order party!

Well it appears Paxton's wife is in the Texas Senate and gets to be part of the jury for her husband's impeachment. You might think that's good for him, but one of the accusations is he had an affair with a staffer in another Senator's office!

Only the best people.

Man everything is bigger in Texas, including the scandals.

I saw he tweeted something about impeaching him would overturn the results of a free and fair election which is pretty ironic since he never said that about Biden's win

Apparently for the first time in at least 20 years, personal credit card debt did not decline over the first quarter of the year. Usually of course that happens as people pay off their Christmas charges etc. It was basically flat instead.

That is probably not a good economic sign.

Paxton impeached. He's a moron if he doesn't just resign because this wasn't close. 121-yes to 23-no

With Texas law he's immediately removed from office and awaits the Senate vote.

Did his wife vote for impeachment?

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From my understanding, she is in the Senate, and would vote after his trial there. I do wonder what she will vote on the charge that he had an affair and gave her a job so they could be close to one another. :)

There's a school of thought that the only mistake Nixon made was resigning.

You fight until they drag you out--especially if you want to keep your base of political support.

Deal in principle reached on debt ceiling.

It's going to be interesting to see how the vote splits on this. You're going to have a lot of people on both sides unhappy.

It not nearly as bad as I expected if it is what is reported. The question is can it pass?

Sounds like the dems caved the most on the work requirements. Nothing sounded too crazy, but I haven't seen much in the way of details.

Early opinions seem to be that the GOP hardliners are not happy at all.

The GOP right and the Dems left were never going yo be happy on any compromise. That's why I wonder if it can get a majority in the House or passed the filibuster in the Senate.

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So will this lead to a no confidence vote of McCarthy?

I think the biggest problem for anyone that wants a vote on McCarthy is the fact that no one else wants to try to lead team crazy.

I mean....Just....wow

Burchett: I voted to shut the government down under Trump and I’ll do it under Biden
Acosta: This is not government shutdown. This is a default.
Burchett: It’s not a default, it’s a delay. if you can’t pay it off this week, we pay it off next week pic.twitter.com/De7l1yozJ3

— Acyn (@Acyn) May 27, 2023

This is true.

But congrats to Joe & McCarthy for getting this far at least. My guess is there'll be some last minute finagling, but there's enough compromise for both sides to declare victory and get it pushed through. The $80B for the IRS has been claw backed some (to help pay for the other stuff) but I've not seen any definitive $ yet.

Went from age 49 to 54 on SNAP for work requirements, and expires in 2030. Vets and homeless are exempted

The gross thing is Joe and the Dems fought like hell for Vets yet the GOP will still claim they are the party of the military and most vets will vote republican.

They never do, and it makes no sense. Republicans stand in the way of military benefits and quality of life improves for soldiers at every turn, but some how they are the "pro-defense" party. Why? Because they write blank checks to their military contractor buddies? It is amazing to me how some of the poorest people in this country will bend over backwards to make billionaires even richer.

Old man alert!

We have been here before guys.

Obama agreed to spending cuts to end the 2011 debt ceiling crisis. Here's what happened next | CNN Politics

Let's see if we actually want these cuts when they are supposed to happen.

You know it's just brinkmanship with these guys, the GOP is great at creating fear of catastrophe, then quietly acquiescing when they think no one is looking.

Which is why DeSantis continuing to fight Disney was/is so weird.

Give a big press conference about fighting Woke Disney.

Then, a few months later, when no one is really paying attention, give Disney what it wants. No hard feelings, etc.

I guess credit to him for really meaning it.

Biden accuser Tara Reade is apparently in Russia now.

Dan Bishop plans to trigger the vote process to oust McCarthy, but I don't see it going anywhere. As I said before, no one else wants that job.

I doubt he'll even trigger the vote.

This is just waving the threat stick around so he can get some attention and some favor down the line from the GOP establishment.

Very very politics as ususal.

dola:

Can the House run without a Speaker?

I know that it could not start without a Speaker.

But would, like, the seniormost Rep become acting speaker or something?

They would just get less done than they do now, as low as that bar is

I'm pretty sure when there is no speaker then by rule that can be the only business of the House. They can basically set rules and schedules around the Speaker vote, but they can't introduce legislation.

I could see them doing that after the debt thing is passed. If he did it now, you have a split screen of the economy in a free fall next to the GOP having their 27th vote on a new Speakership. There's bad optics, and then there's shooting yourself in the dick on national TV.

I believe this is correct And getting that vote together will likely take months with the different cliques or crazy in the GOP trying to get it done.

Lol. The CBO says the added work requirements to SNAP actually adds to deficit. It will actually cost way more to enforce than any savings. The cruelty is the point.

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The HFC are firebrands.

They are like the people on leftist twitter who argue that if President Biden would just liberal harder, then he'd force Mitch McConnell to agree to everything the Democrats want.

It's the same thing. The HFC wants everything they want and to give nothing in return. Which is fun to say.

McCarthy had to actually make a deal, so he had to actually give and take with the WH. It is unrealistic to say that if he'd just MAGAd harder, then Biden would have given him everything he wanted.

So the bill will pass. And then there will be lots of talk of a discharge petition. But nothing will get filed because on some level they have to know that they are better positioned with McCarthy as Speaker giving them a huge megaphone but able to actually legislate when needed.

It's not really any different from the required drug tests red states were implementing. They get so obsessed with catching the people they think are cheating the system that they don't care about the cost. They just don't want someone getting someone they feel they don't deserve for free.




Yep, when you have a split government in this political climate, there really aren't going to be any clear cut winners. It's accepting a compromise that you can stomach.

Biden has done an excellent job, for the most part, handling things without trying to expand executive power. There are faults you can find and things you may not agree with, but "why hasn't he done XXXX far left thing" isn't a legit complaint. One of the furthest left things he's done on his own is partially wiping out student debt, which is very likely getting shot down by the supreme court. Yet, he was constantly knocked for not doing it quick enough and then not wiping out more debt.

What it comes down to is the same thing that's been said for the past few election cycles. If the progressives want a more progressive government then they need to treat every single election like it's the most important of their lifetimes.

The only real alternative is to accept that no actual policy gets enacted/changed, go full bully pulpit, and then when the other side votes everything down you campaign on getting more representation in the next Congress. Neither way works great in practice - nothing does in a divided government as noted - but the whole bit of politics being the art of the possible definitely comes into play. You might keep the base by refusing to compromise, but you'll lose the middle and the base typically isn't enough to win.


I'm not 100% sure they aren't dumb enough to do that. I agree with you it probably doesn't happen, but these days I put very little into the 'that will never happen' basket. Ever since Trump was elected in '16, I've just basically been in 'the sky - or sewer if you prefer - is the limit. Almost nothing is beyond the realm of possibility'.

To your point


But taken as a whole, I'm okay with it. If true without any changes in the future, a pretty good compromise overall $1.5T > $2.1B.

I see that one of the debt ceiling compromises is that student loan payments will resume by late August.

Gotta free up the money for another farmers, who hate socialism, bail out.

Welcome, the more the merrier

Okay, all of the non-Trump candidates will need to draw straws to see who gets to run. We need to concentrate the not-Trump opposition to one single candidate. No clown car.

They wont. They are all banking on him either not running because of legal troubles, or his legal troubles disqualifying him in the eyes of enough voters that they end up picking up enough pieces.

What will actually happen is his zealots couldn't care less about his legal troubles and he will secure the nomination with 38% of the vote.

I'd love to get into the mind of the 2023 primary voter who is excited by this announcement.

"I don't like Trump or DeSantis or Haley or Scott or Pence or Hutchinson. But, man, Christie really brings something to the table!"

I really think some of these people, like Christie, think they can peel the non-maga GOP away and beat Trump.

I think it's doable, but it's really trying to thread the needle. You have to essentially get the few remaining moderate Republicans and most or all of the evangelicals. The problem there is if you split those votes at all Trump wins easily.

As crazy as it sounds, I think Pence could have been the one to pull it off but he needed to go on the offensive against Trump really early and spill the tea.

I get why Christie is running. What's the joke? What does every governor and senator see when they look in the mirror? A president.

I'm just trying to picture the voter who would look at this field and decide on Christie. And I'm having trouble doing it.

Someone that hasn't followed anything politically in the past decade?

He's locked up the just-woke-up-from-a-coma market, LOL.