Dem nominee prices on PredictIt

Biden - .52
Newsom - .27
Harris - .15
Clinton - .05
Buttigieg - .02
Pritzker - .02

I think the Newsom money is bad. If Biden steps aside now, Harris gets the nomination.

How is Whitmer not up there?

That would be like shooting the golden goose. Entirely on brand though.

There is the worshipper, always one of you. Trump is so much younger than Biden, 3 years? Anyways, I'm curious how one has dementia if he can answer a question with an answer that is rational and well thought out, but the other guy acts like a monkey throwing his feces from the diapers he wears. A sign of dementia is an inability to act rationally and follow instructions. Mango Mussolini failed miserably on both.

The Biden team insisted on this format.

That's a new one. Donald Trump is a narcissist, unhinged liar and your response is Joe Biden insisted on this format.

Why do you think he lied on a national television about something is so obviously true and something he would love to brag about? Probably because he's a con man. He doesn't want to lose his precious religious suckers that love him because he cheated on his wife with some whore.

You complained about the format of the debate and insinuated it was setup to help Trump. I simply stated that the format was one that the Biden team insisted on.

I see you're on to stage 2 though. Bargaining up next.

I'm glad you know what i think better than me.
Trump is old, a felon, a moron and a liar, while Biden is just old.

You never explained why you worship a cheat, liar and overall terrible human being? I'm curious. Is that because you relate to that? Do you go out in a public and push old women in the street or something? Rob poor kids of their milk money?

I don't support Trump and will not be voting for him. I would prefer he lose which is why I am upset people like you insisted on Joe Biden.

Joe, you need to fire your prep team ... and your make up guy.

Joe had his Stockdale moment. He was certainly better than Stockdale and maybe not as fatal, but yeah, this was it.


Scratch that. Definitely not looking forward to Sep debate and it's obvious that Joe should have avoided the Jun debate. Say "it's pretty clear everyone knows what he and I stand for based on our records, and he'll lie anyway on the stage, so why waste time".

Joe's cognitive decline was pretty obvious on stage. I'd welcome being as sharp as he is when I'm that age, but the contrast from 4 years ago and contrast to Trump in performance (not content) is striking.

But as I've said, debates matter. This time it worked against Joe and, if he loses, will be a major reason.



... Dems better get real, real serious about the House & Senate.

under no circumstances will Biden step aside.

I mean dems never learned that (*cough* rbg *cough*)

Feinstein too.

PS debates don't matter one bit

I'll let things settle down for a couple days and see how I feel (doubt it'll change), but right now I believe Thomas Friedman has it right.

Joe Biden Is a Good Man and a Good President. He Must Bow Out of the Race. – DNyuz

It'll be tough for Joe but he should step aside for the greater good. I really don't think Kamala can win it, so I'm thinking Newsome (and/or Michelle) is the best shot the Dems have.

But even if Joe doesn't step aside, I'll still vote for him.

Al Gore is younger than both Trump and Biden.

So is RFK Jr. ... and he's younger than Al.

He's starting to look better and better everyday in a 3 person race.

No he doesn't. The dude is crazier than Trump.

Dola: Though I will say you may be on to who the real winner last night ends up. I wonder what his bump in the polls will be?

I didn't watch a second of the debate and I don't understand why anyone would, but it appears Joe Biden was the only person in America to have a worse day yesterday than Tim Weah.

Biden should step aside, but all that would do for him is provide some legacy/face-saving ("he did the honorable thing") rather than adding a humiliating defeat to his record. But doing the honorable thing left the building about a year ago. I don't believe it would actually change the outcome of the election for a new candidate to replace him now. No one likes Harris. Any of the others would just be thrown into a fight with little armor or weapons and no time to MacGyver anything.

To bookend my comment yesterday, I suppose the only bright side to Trump winning is we delay a potential Constitutional crisis to beyond January 2025 since he won't have an election loss to try to overturn in whatever ways he could force GOP states and Congresspeople to do it for him.

Really?

If it was only Trump vs RFK Jr, no third choice, you would pick Trump?

I would absolutely not vote RFK, and I guarantee one or more 3rd party candidates with better, more moderate/sane track records would enter the race.

Dear Joe. You saved us once in 2020. Thank you. We are in your debt. But the saving move this time is to step aside and let someone younger and more vigorous take up the fight. You've done your job. Now let the next person take the mantle. History will be kind to you if you step aside.

RFK Jr.? Not voting for an anti-vax conspiracy theory maniac, thanks.

It's way, way too late for that. Needed to happen minimum six months ago if it was going to happen.


We the people picked these candidates. In a free society you get the government you deserve. Grab a mirror, folks. That's the first step to solving the problem.

:+1:

If you are going 3rd party at least go Chase Oliver.

Down goes Chevron.

This is where I stand.

I will still vote Biden but he virtually has zero chance to win. Most voters aren't particularly informed and anyone who watched that last night isn't going to be won over by Joes performance.

They didn't even have to watch to know that Joe was terrible and reinforced every (over the top) thing the GOP has said about him. They just have to watch GMA, or take a brief look at headlines from around various media about the debate. I mean, I expect Fox News to destroy Biden, but I woke up this morning to Sky News and BBC headlines about what a disaster Biden was. So it's not like it matters whether you are in your own echo chamber - his performance was universally panned and a fair number of people are openly questioning whether he should step aside for the good of the country and to preserve his legacy (nevermind that it's too late - all that matters is that these are the discussion topics).

Add on that thanks to the SC, Trump now has more fuel to argue J6 criminals were railroaded and even that seemingly slam-dunk topic has now been partially derailed.

Pretty terrible 18 or so hours. Not sure how much worse it could be for Biden, apart from a legit medical episode.

If I am Iran, China, etc...today is the day I seriously consider launching any planned attacks on America or allies.

Last night was a national security disaster as much as anything else.

Time for a serious 25th amendment talk

Lost in last night's disaster, BTW, was the fact that Trump dropped the term "black jobs" which in a normal presidential debate would have been a scandal.

Eh, it wasn't lost on many Black posters on Twitter.

yeah but since he is a fellow felon he is basically one of them now...

He had a really terrible debate that would.have crushed him if he was on the stage next to just about anyone else.

Bidens only real chance now is Trump having a medical emegenvy prior to the election. Ill of course be voting for Biden but neither should be anywhere near the ballot.

Time to dust off all those 'leaving the country' fantasies.

What's the hit rate on people actually following through on that in recent cycles? Under 1%?

I've already dusted mine off, but it's just that - a fantasy. He didn't say anything about people following through with it.

Okay, legit question, since I'm not inclined to fall into the rabbit hole of looking up specifics but I figure someone here probably has already done the reading.

In Georgia, as a baseline, there is precedent in local elections for a candidate to (for example) die before an election but after ballots are printed. In those cases, votes for Deceased Cand. A are counted for Replacement Candidate B.
In other instances, votes for a deceased candidate are discarded entirely, only votes for other candidate(s) are counted. So a variety of methods basically, both of which have been used right here in my own county since we got here.

Let's say that Joe is incapacitated and steps aside. Let's further say (hypothetically) that Trump has a medical incident and dies outright.*

What happens in states where ballots are already locked in?
And does it matter that there are difference circumstances to the two departures?

*Doing the deceased thing here in order to set up a "are there differences in the rules for different reasons" scenario.

There's clips on Twitter of Joe's rally in NC today. He's much more passionate and clear. Why didn't that guy show up last night? Is it just the Teleprompter? It's just too late to change candidates now so have to hope that Joe has it in him to show up for the 2nd debate.

Is Trump going to show up for a second debate? Why would he?

Fair question.

Is Joe going to show up to the second debate? He wasn't there the first time around.

Probably FAR under. In reality that's at least a combination of finding a new job, moving all of your shit across the world, and endless discussions/conflicts with family. A combo meal of everybody's favorites.

You also have to find a job in an English speaking country or in a corporation that is multi-national enough you can speak English, and is willing to sponsor you and deal with the red tape and the penalties to hire on a visa. And then if you are looking to move to Europe, outside of the UK pretty much the entire continent is moving to the right of Trump anyway right now.

Been there, done that, got the t-shirt. Ironically, we are considering moving back just in time for what is increasingly looking like a comfortable Trump win. We'll see how much that influences the decision over the next few months, but culturally being in a non-English speaking country has been tough.

Where are you?

We moved to Switzerland in mid-2022

Interesting. Did you move principally for political reasons, or it just happened to coincide with an opportunity or a "fuck it, let's try something different" type of decision?

I actually talked about this recently in one of these threads. Both parties allow their respective National Committees to select new candidates with little variations. Democrats require the party chair to consult Democratic governors and congressional leadership first. The RNC can either select themselves or try to form an emergency nominating convention.

Of course there are legal questions. I do wonder if this would free up electors once the electoral college met, but by the party bylaws this what supposed to happen.

If I had a chance to move to England or Canada, I would jump in a heart beat. Australia or New Zealand as well. A non-English speaking country would give me pause, but I would probably do something like the Netherlands or Sweden.

Just let Joe go on the attack and he'll be fine. If he's this guy over and ver between now and November nobody will remember the debate. He's not Obama or Gore or Clinton in terms of talking about policy. He's good as n honest guy that gets pissed about injustice. Just let him go and keep talking about how Trump is a one-man crime wave.

As predicted...

No one tears down Democrats like Democrats...

Job opportunity for my wife plus the desire to do something different post COVID and illness.

Honestly I love about 60%-70% of being in Europe but the language and cultural barrier just is what it is. Bear in mind I didn’t live in the US until I was in my mid 20s, for my wife who outside of a couple of years in the UK lived in SoCal her entire life and hasn’t been able to really make inroads into the language at all it’s been even worse.

Cool.

And simply ftr, definitely don't take it personally that I miss anything anybody posts in this thread. I try to limit my exposure to it for my mental health. So I do only short bursts on occasion.

My wifes sister and her family live in England. They have been there about 10-12 years and are never coming back because of the mess this country is.

We had an opportunity about 4 years ago to move there with my wifes company and actually live in the same town as her sister but we had just moved back to Jersey so we declined.

There you go again knowing what I think. Is it ok if I just appoint you as my conservator? You do know me better than me.
This woe is me bullshit has got to stop. I can't believe that trump went on national TV with lies, lies and more lies. He wouldn't even say he would accept the results of the election without a caveat. He lied so much I don't even need to review what he said. It's all just lies. Why would you vote for someone that can't tell the truth at all? Anyone remember Nixon? Americans are a sick, sad and pathetic bunch....just like trump. Perfect union.

You seem stuck on the idea that anybody criticizing Biden is voting for Trump. Literally nobody in this thread has a vote that is up for grabs. Everybody is speaking in terms of persuadable votes/voters.

If you're talking to me, you are wrong. That's the thing about assumptions.... Discussing politics in a generalized matter with how it pertains to the nearest election.

Mia culpa. Sorry for making you put your generalized discussion into multiple replies to a single individual whom you addressed singularly.

Good response to last night, Joe.

Biden acknowledges weak debate performance asÂ*Democratic questionsÂ*swirl over whether he’ll stay in the presidential race | CNN Politics

:D I love that people that never post on this site are coming out of the woodwork to reply to this thread

I despise Trump and what he has and will do with another four years. But like many of you, its not likely to have a large direct effect on me and my family and we are comfortable. We're middle class with our owm home with a great interest rate and reasonable mortgage. We both have good careers (though im a stay at home dad for at least another year until my oldest is in Kindergarten). We live in location we really like with nice weather and people mostly in the range of us politically (and those not are not as overt about it since they are still heavily in the minority here. My kids are part asian but are not those that would be targeted by increased hate and racism.

Trump sucks but we did live through 4 years of him already. Most of our lives haven't changed much under Biden.

The Dems seem to be polling incredibly well in Senate races which will be important toward blocking judges. No doubt the Republicans will kill the filibuster if they control the Senate. And I think the Dems will take the House since they should have if New York didn't royally fuck up last time. The hope has to be that Biden doesn't drag down others in those races since he is polling so far behind other Democrats.

If you're looking for a silver lining, Trump likely gets us out of the Ukraine boondoggle. There is a semi anti-war faction on the right. And liberals can go back to pretending they are anti-war/anti-genocide which provides some resistance.

Despite all the sky is falling rhetoric, we're still an oligarchy and very little will change policy wise whether Biden or Trump is in power. Courts are going to be running roughshod over the country for decades and Democrats weren't exactly itching to stop it. So I think it's just 4 more years on a sinking ship.

For those of us in red states, we aren't so lucky. My daughter is looking to move out after a friend of hers had a horrible pregnancy issue. We can't follow until we retire. It sucks.

That happened while Biden was President. He had no way of stopping it and doesn't seem to really care to help those in red states anyway on the issue. Unless 3 conservative judges step down AND Biden was able to get new justices confirmed, it won't change in the next 4 years.

The courts were a 40+ year plan by the right and it'll take a similar strategy by the left to restore any of those rights. Especially with how un-democratic the Senate is and how little most Democratic politicians care.

I would hope they've learned a lesson but, yeah, the Democratic party continues to live in West Wing world instead of trying to do anything of substance. I'm just giving an example where Trump beating Clintion had a negative impact on our lives. Trump winning again just extends that 40 year estimate as Alito and Thomas would definitely retire given the opportunity.

If your Biden or his team, how do you even get the toothpaste back in the tube at this point, once you've got multiple pundits/papers that are ostensibly on his side, telling him to step down? Just sweep it under the rug and hope he doesn't make even the slightest misstep again, for 5 entire months?

The NYTimes is a fucking embarrassment. They are calling on Biden to drop out, but haven't said a word about Trump dropping out.

538 with post-debate polling.

Who Won The First Biden-Trump Presidential Debate? | FiveThirtyEight

The impact to Joe is not as bad as I feared. TBH not sure I believe it.

Goes back to the debate about debates that we've had. They don't matter as much as they used to. The biggest danger from this, as others have mentioned, is not IMO the debate itself but the coverage of it and the narrative that can result.


Why would they be talking about the person who appears to have won (yes, by default, but still) the debate dropping out?

To thesloppy's point, I think Biden's team just tries to minimize the damage and hope that people decide any price is reasonable for keeping Trump away from the Presidency again. There's still quite a decent chance of that happening.

Well, yeah. TBF when I said debates were important, I didn't just mean the 1-2 hours on TV. I also meant the ramifications of the debates (e.g. the Stockdale moment).

Let's hope so.

I'm okay with a declining Joe because I do believe he has better cabinet, supporting cast than Trump.

FWIW the Chinese POV.

Unfortunately, don't think we can dispute it.

https://www.newsweek.com/biden-trum-...debate-1918688

Not their job to be his surrogate.

Another big miss was RBG not stepping down when Obama could replace her. Liberals screamed about sexism and it ended up being a huge blunder. Then they ionized the selfish woman after her death.

I don't think they overturn Roe with a 5-4 vote since Roberts seems to avoid that stuff. But with an extra justice on the right, it was happening anyway and gave him the green light.

The coup trying, sexual assault liable, felon has never been told to drop out by the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/o...mp-resign.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/07/o...peachment.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/25/o...can-party.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/o...peachment.html

Also, if anything, asking him to step down is an anti-Trump move. Biden is like the only person who can lose to Trump and having him steps down likely prevents a Trump Presidency.

1000% agree on RBG, though I put that completely on her and not "liberals" in general. I'm just to the west of you in Oak Park, and there's still a lot of lawn signs for her here. I get mad every time I see them.

I mean all the republicans since Bush sr had bad debates and it didn't matter. why should dems be any different....i mean aside from the fact that they hate themselves.

I'm not convinced Harris can win since...like....men hate women in power

It just hurts my heart and makes me sad and angry all the hate he spreads and enboldens others to express. Its hard for me to believe half the country is still living in 1924. Where we live my kids are not affected much by it currently but i want them to live in world better than what is currently happening.

Evidently Trump let loose a wet far during the debate

Trump Audibly Shits his pants during Debate: #DebateNight #Debate2024
������������������
Listen right after he says "He can't because it's too much money"

TRUMP'S MIC IS THE ONLY LIVE MIC pic.twitter.com/Eo2uDcje7s

— Hal Sparks (@HalSparks) June 28, 2024

That's a guest essay and three opinions regarding when he was the President. There's been nothing comparable to the piece written yesterday since Trump won the nomination for 2024.

Who is it you think they are bias toward? Biden stepping down hurts Trump. They literally wrote an opinion piece pleading with the Democrats to win this so we don't get Trump for 4 more years.

Historically, debates don't change votes.

Trump will do a lot of damage, but so will the supreme court. This Chevron case being overturned is a disaster. This is becoming a regular occurence.

If you base things on historical factors, then Trump never wins the nomination or the election in 2016. I don't think hanging hope "historically" is wise at this point.

Biden is a terrible candidate. He should have bowed out for the good of the country. Him leaving changes the entire tone and tenor of the current arguments. Him staying just proves he's like every other politician out for themselves and their legacy. Smerconish has really nailed it all along.



He goes, policies, trump and people come back into focus rather than it just being about two old, white guys.



Biden needs to go. It's lost if he stays. And if he loses there's no hope for the future of the US I thought I lived in. Instead we'll be living in the New United Southern States of America and the rest of you will never have your vote count again because we'll legally figure out a way to make sure that happens.

I listen to him daily, have even called in a few times. Lions +7.

He can get a bit tiresome with his self promotion but overall I enjoy 90% of the show.

Not hanging hope, just pointing it out. So far, polls indicate very little change.

There's a lot of just assuming that if Biden drops out the replacement would do better that I don't think is justified. It's possible that would happen, but IMO it's more likely that the chaos which would result favors Trump. It's certainly something we have no frame of reference for, since it hasn't ever happened in presidential politics in America.

I still say this goes back to 2020. Choosing Biden then largely was choosing Biden now. They are one and the same decision.


I don't think this is necessarily the case. I think it's quite possible - only he knows for sure of course - that Biden chose to run again for the reason that he said; to stop Trump, and that he still thinks he's the best option for that. There are multiple reasons here:

- As noted above, there might not actually be a better alternative
- The very fact that people are increasingly concerned about Biden's mental state points to the idea that he could just be wrong about this. We can't say on the one hand 'Biden can no longer handle the job mentally' and also say 'He obviously knows he's not the best choice and should step down'. Either he is being affected by mental decline, or he isn't.

If Biden dropped out there's only one person who could get the nomination over Harris and be in a position to win in November, but Michelle Obama isn't interested. It's fantasy to think someone else is going to drop in and save everything.

The debate part isn't the issue, it's how he looked. If he had done this in front of 40 million during the SOTU or some interview, you'd have the same reaction.

I mean, he had a cold. He felt and looked better literally the next day.

I think Pritzker, Whitmer, and Shapiro would beat Trump. All 3 would have just dogwalked him at that debate the other night. They all are well spoken and can get their name and message out fairly easy. People seem terrified of Trump because of 2016, but he's a terrible candidate who is easily beatable. Swing states rejected him in 2020 and his candidate almost all got crushed as well in 2022.

And even if they didn't win, it's still better than running Biden. Biden is hurting the Democratic party so badly among important demographics that it will take a generation to recover. He's a cancer to the party like Trump and should be removed.

The problem is this late in the game none of them have the name brand to get to independents and people that don't really follow politics that you need to turn out. RFK Jr. has been in this from the beginning and still has 20% of people that don't know enough of him to have an opinion.

Pritzker is a bad candidate on the national stage, Whitmer needs a full cycle to build her name, and Shaprio is less known than the other 2. Newsome has his issues, but would likely be the best candidate without the last name Obama to put forward this late.

I read a blurb that said Harris is the only one who could access the campaign's funds, since she is already part of it.

x.com

This poll shows not much difference depending on the candidate.

Also, the two demographics there has been concern about Biden losing are minorities and pro-Palestinian youth voters. I fail to see how passing over Harris for three white Zionists (probably moreso than Biden) accomplishes anything in that area.

This thread makes me weep for America.