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Wait, the scumteam didn't try to shoot Shoveler? Really?
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just confused you and shoveler, ha
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A vanilla villager was killed? That does not look good for Shoveler.
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Prevailing logic would be that the assumption is the Martyr guards Shoveler last night, so it would be a wasted kill.
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Can I just take a moment to say I am so happy that my read on Raven was correct, you don't even know.
It was mostly a lucky guess BUT STILL. |
Did Zinto say the Martyr died if he got a block? He said no right? Traditional BG?
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No it wouldn't, because then the Martyr would be dead and then the scumteam could take out Shoveler the next Night. |
I would approve of a seer claim toDay if Shoveler is lying, especially with the martyr still in play.
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Bleh, I can't remember what Zinto said.
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vote EagleFan
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Nevermind, this makes Shoveler look worse, because at least they'd take out the Martyr. |
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Seriously? Not even waiting for Shoveler's scan result? |
Could have been a calculated risk knowing that we'd maybe lynch the seer for them if Shoveler and the Martyr didn't die today, and they just take out a strong player instead
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But yes, curious what Shoveler has to say
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Oh right, we're going with the assumption that I put kills in early or something.
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That is my placeholder. I feel pretty strong but we will see what happens. Waffling on the third wolf, but vote history should help. Off to bed yall
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Good catch. |
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Wow that's a horrible post, but FIXED. |
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And giving us an extra free scan? There's no decent reason I can see for doing that, unless they misread the rules. |
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Wait until morning for everyone to catch up. The way this game has gone the seer may not even be on (if Shoveler reveal is fake). The wolves could have also purposely gone after someone other than Shoveler to make him a target of the lynch. Additionally, if we believe they weren't around much based on the day one kill (or maybe a new player could have been the only one around) it may have been an early kill order before the reveal. |
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I have to say, one other time I saw someone basically call themselves a wolf in a post and it was true. |
If only life were that easy.
I think I was talking and typing at the same time and slipped in an 'I' when I was saying "I.' |
If the Shoveler reveal is true:
Day Two Final Tally Raven 6- Autumn(622), Vaimes(626), Fontisian(636), Path(638), Timmae(641), JAG(675) Autumn 4- The Jackal(546), Shoveler(579), Chief Rum(585), Raven(597) Shoveler 2-EagleFan(360), Narcizo(510) Timmae 1- Grover(530) |
Any read on Grover? He has one off votes both days.
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Guys, Raven was around to change the kill to Shoveler.
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Oh right, time to look at who didn't hop on the Raven wagon.
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Going on a hunch here... voting for stooge* number 2.
vote autumn *stooge is a term of endearment as I usually love those guys. Only Benny Hill is better. |
Right, there was no way the wolves didn't have time to change the kill.
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With all due respect (see?), this is an awful vote. He started the run on Raven and Raven voted him instead of Shoveler earlier in the day. Very very unlikely wolf in my opinion. |
Huh. So Jackal is the only unknown on Autumn, and then Narcizo and Grover are just sort of out there.
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timmae, did you roll Wolf again?
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I told you I am.... a 3 stooges fan. :) |
Uh huh.
Why are you voting for Autumn? |
Shoveler being on Autumn also makes him look worse.
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Also logical .. so this leads you guys to believe Shoveler is lying? |
If he is lying, it's. Kind of a bad strategy. It'd buy him a Day at best.
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His D1 was sketchy... first few posts felt forced. Then his votes were all over the place. Probably nothing here but I have a hunch. I'd keep my eye on him... from what I know he may just be crazy enough to pull off that D2 vote. |
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Or hoping to lure out the real seer. Did Chief post anything after his reveal that may have looked like he had reason to doubt the reveal? |
Autumn definitely knows to be careful about his voting record as a wolf, but it's one thing to bury a vote and another to start a run on a teammate when he could've licked anyone else. And there's also the fact that Raven voted for Autumn bringing him into a tie with Shoveler. If Shoveler was. A villager and Autumn a wolf, that's a very risky move to put your teammate in that kind of danger.
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Yeah, seer fishing is certainly an on the block wolf reveal tactic.
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PICKED anyone else...darn you autocorrect |
But fishing for the Seer in a setup with a Bodyguard-type role is suboptimal, since the Seer is then guaranteed at least one more check and could potentially PoE the fake Seer's buddies.
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Either way I think we are not in bad shape with what we have learned so far.
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No, I think you meant 'licked.' :P
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licked... lol. That's a stooge technique!
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But.. if you convince the BG to guard the fake seer because there's no counter, you have a better shot of killing the real one. |
Okay, Chief posted nothing since the reveal.
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That either means:
1) Shoveler was telling the truth and the wolves misread the rules, thinking he would be protected tonight I could see them going BG hunting and maybe assuming no back to back protection so he would be fair game tomorrow. 2) Shoveler was telling the truth and the wolves wanted to try to make us doubt him. Possible but probably not as likely as we would certainly have a counter if this was fake. 3) Shoveler did a fake reveal hoping to lure out the real seer. Going after someone that hadn't posted since the reveal would mean they didn't see a likely true seer among the group so they went for absent players looking for the real seer. |
No sense in trying to figure it out now; unless the real seer is online as they should definitely reveal at this point as we would have caught 2 of the 3 wolves and be in great shape.
We'll see tomorrow where this goes. |
If I were scum, I'd bet that the martyr wouldn't get back in time to protect seer!Shoveler.
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Risky, but I'd think either way Shoveler would be the target .. unless they did miss Zinto's BG clarification |
I also think the seer should reveal and then I'll vote Shoveler. I'm pretty sure I know who the seer is.
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Updated Autumn to mostly good. Reading back over the posts after the reveal I think it does lean him towards good. |
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Updated with my lean on Autumn. |
If Shoveler reveal is countered (though we will be adding colors if we get a counter).
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Sorry, cheek was still supposed to be green in that day one vote (in the counter scenario).
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Good night all.
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FTR; I will be away much of the day tomorrow. Still not feeling well but will be in the office tomorrow and my schedule looks crazy with meetings (ugh). Will try to get to the thread over my phone when I can but I hate posting a lot when on the phone.
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:popcorn:
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She knows. She thinks this sounds like an awful game. However the direct yet warm ms.path loves few things more than talking to smart young women. |
VOTE SHOVELER
Hi, I'm Red. N1 scan on EagleFan, conditional on Narcizo if EF got lynched. EF is good, you may note my quick turnaround on him right after D1. N2 scan was Autumn, conditional to fontisian if Autumn got lynched. Autumn is good. Shoveler, on the other hand is not me. So he must be Team Rocket. |
I can give you quotes:
Post #317 Quote:
Post #318 Quote:
Post #358, soon after start of D2. Quote:
Post #361 Quote:
Post #373 Quote:
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Vote Shoveler |
Vote Shoveler
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Unusual for me to be so accurate on day two. Or any day to be honest.
Vote Shoveler No reason for Path to lie plus neither Shoveler nor the Matyr dying. |
Ok for the porpoises of vote analysis I'm going to colour Path, Autumn and Eagle blue and Shoveler red because I'm hard pressed finding a way that Path isn't telling the truth. In fact I'll, appropriately enough, colour myself Blue as that's who I am, as will be proved tonight.
You won't believe how glad I am that Path didn't reveal after Shoveler last night, as I wouldn't have protected him then. (Zinto kindly allowed me to use conditional protect orders so I was protecting the first person to reveal as a seer - in retrospect I should have protected the last person to reveal). Anyway, no harm as it turned out. |
Day Two Final Tally
Raven 6- Autumn(622), Vaimes(626), Fontisian(636), Path(638), Timmae(641), JAG(675) Autumn 4- The Jackal(546), Shoveler(579), Chief Rum(585), Raven(597) Shoveler 2-EagleFan(360), Narcizo(510) Timmae 1- Grover(530) Grover it is then. |
Accidentally marked Vaimes as blue for some reason but the point remains. My trust list of uncleared is something like
Fontisian Vaimes Jackal Timmae JAG Grover |
Well, I was wrong on my seer guess. But anyway,
Vote Shoveler |
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Unvote Shoveler Vote Timmae |
Unvote Timmae
Vote Shoveler |
Post 530 for Grover, switching from font to timmae when Raven had 3 and timmae had 2 doesn't look too good.
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In case anyone was to distrust the path reveal for some reason... |
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For good measure. |
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This is also a fun post in retrospect and then font's curiosity at how it resolves itself without a lynch. |
Grover's my only guess for the last wolf at this point after reading back. path had some good dialogue calling him out Day 2 and his vote on timmae yesterday looks fishy in retrospect.
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Well this has to be the biggest bullshit counter claim I have ever seen. I scanned EF last night and yes he is town, but of course you knew that already. Guess your plan is working for now. After I get lynched today and flip good you're hosed. Not sure the strategy for the counter, not going after me last night should have been good enough. |
Vote Shoveler
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vote shoveler
Last nights actions push me in this direction. We will see who is lying quickly enough. The stooges never lied... Maybe these guys are the 3 cabelleros. |
Oh man...
Who to believe. I will be around all day and tonight for once. So... still catching up here. |
vote shoveler
path seems more legitimate here. Whereas, Shoveler seems to have the hint of desperation of a wolf trying to save themselves. |
Between the wolves not going after Shoveler and that a fake counter by path really does the wolves no good... And my initial read on Shoveler...
vote Shoveler |
I ought to try and do some sort of analysis but I haven't really had time today and its difficult seeing past Grover. My worry is that this, barring Path's scan tonight, is all the information we're going to get. But with the number of cleared villagers I think the wolf would have to be the last possible person imaginable for us not to win. But wackier things have happened.
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wow, 10 votes for shoveler this page alone. And then that vote on me because narc apparently doesn't have good taste in comedy shows. Anyways... reading back through the thread to try and verify who team shoveler may be and who team path may be.
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There could be reads here. If shoveler flips evil then I have slight negative (evil) reads on narc, font and to a lesser extent EF. |
I dont see myself talking my way out of this lynch. So if lynching me helps reveal Path's deceit, why not start the nightfall votes and just move the game forward?
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Nightfalls are never a good idea for team good IMHO. I will not be nightfalling.
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As of Post 789
Shoveler 7-Path(763), Font(765), Vaimes(766), JAG(771), Narcizo(773), Grover(783), EagleFan(784) EagleFan 1-Autumn(710) Autumn 1-Timmae(728) |
Timmae and Autumn you didn't unvote your previous votes.
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I know you're essentially a sitting duck, but I don't think this is a good idea. We need to continue fostering discussion about who could be the third wolf. While I do think you are lying about being the seer, it's fairly obvious that EF was good, it would behoove us not to go down the nightfall road. There's plenty to discuss, even with your fate sealed. Also, waiting 12 hours to die when you know it's going to happen really, really sucks. I'm sorry that we have to delay the inevitable. |
unvote eaglefan
vote shoveler |
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EF? I've cleared EF. Hell, even the fake seer has claimed to clear EF, though he didn't leave any bread crumbs as far as I can tell. |
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We can talk it out if you like. I have more posts to reference, though it looks like JAG hit many of them. |
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Lol, yep. Obviously I havent reached your claim and views on my reread yet! |
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Right. My fault. Sorry boss! |
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sounds exactly like my yesterday and today, i'm inhaling cough drops |
I had a feeling path was the seer as well
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vote shoveler
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