+1

this is very true and good analysis chief

And Autumn - I will leave the rest of the night and the morning for everyone to discuss their own thoughts on things and stuff before I set out who the two other people are ( "36 hour" and "programmer" for short).

Well there you go then. Thanks for clarifying, DT. Of course, I didn't even really have reasons for voting KWhit, lol. He fell victim to my search for the "third candidate". I was as much caught out as anyone by the sudden run on him.

Chief, this was the other post I had mentioned earlier. Considering the complexity of the game and being posted early in day 1 it doesn't bother me as much in retrospect, it's just odd having you do a wait and see thing. ;)

can we vote Poli and stop the clock? lol

Ah, I guess I can see that. That was my "tired as hell, no way do I understand WTF is going on in this game, it's late, I gotta go to bed" post last night. ;)

I was serious, though. I didn't get the feeling we knew crap, and I knew we all had abilities (or that's what I believe to be true), so I thought the exercise of some of those abilities might get us some clarity on a vote. At that point in time, I was entirely unsure where to go with a vote.

Of course, as you can see, once I did put a vote in, it didn't really do much good anyway.

Personally, I'm not really a fan of the third candidate thing, but it's not so far removed from reason for me to not see it as a legitimate thought, so I'm not going to hold it against you. Unless both ntn and PB turn up bad, that is.

I think I need to find a way to reformat this that is easier for me to follow, but this is potentially valuable.

We had three decent runs on people yesterday: ntn, Purdue and KWhit. What interests me are those who jumped on more than one of those. Especially anyone who jumped on all three.

For instance, BrianD was the third vote on The Jackal. He then jumped to be the third vote on Purdue Brad, and finally jumped again to the KWhit train.

It was also interesting to see that double run on ntn, up to 9 votes then down to five and back up to 8. If anything that makes me feel better about him, for it's hard to imagine wolves letting two runs go on a fellow baddie. (with the caveat that day 1 anything is possible).

Thanks for putting that together, king.

Heh...if ntn and PB both turn up bad, I would be half inclined to vote for myself. :D

very very interesting

That seems like a perfectly reasonable sentiment :)

is this something new that's very, very interesting? Because I want to go to bed but not if there's something new and interesting.

I guess not, I'll be out 'til tomorrow.

I'm out for the night. I'll likely be on in the AM for a bit and then we finish the last leg of our trip (this used to be much faster w/o a four month old) tomorrow. Should be on around 4 pm CST tomorrow and then back in regular form the rest of the way.

Well DT is Jack Bauer. And when he has a suspicion, I assumed its because he figured something out based on a PM or special power he has. He's the only confirmed good guy after all.

I'm still here and still reading. I don't really know what to add right now.

2am - bedtime for me!

Wow, we lost two and one being a BG. Habib doesn't seem like much of a loss at least.

Sorry for my low activity today. I had guests over from about 6 central until 3 central (4-1am my time).

well we arent off to a great start are we?

i think the DT call from yesterday was the best shot we had, but if there is anything to be learned from it, it is that analyzing the roles and trying to pick wolves out based on what mechanics hoops and bk may have come up with may not be a very good plan.

what could people possibly PM you that would make them suspects? Im sure even the wolves didnt tell you they were wolves!

how do you know?

He probably had something to do with Ef being removed from the game for a short time. Perhaps some sort of interrogation ability or something.

the problem is... what could he have learned in a pm? i mean seriously..... unless someone gets busted lying.... and we learn nothing from wrong votes, since the wolves can just jump on with DT when hes wrong.

I think we should ignore the info that DT THINKS he has, that he probably doesnt. and just play :) but thts my argument every game....

DT you really need to avoid speculating, when you KNOW something then tell us....

Since I had more time to catch up, I don't think we can read too much into the Kwhit voters. Yes, it wouldn't have been a bad idea for wolves to jump in there, but unless one or both of NFG and PB are wolves, they probably would lean towards sticking on their current candidate. Also, it is quite likely villagers followed DT as well. I was actually leaning towards voting there before the lynch happened myself.

My vote is on CR right now, but there's a good chance that will change as the day develops.

I am ok with speculation, I just think it would be helpful if his vote is based on speculation or mostly a guess. I felt he did that fine and there was really nothing wrong with that for day 1. Going forward, there should be more though.

i disagree, we actually would have learned more from a no lynch.....

well gee Clap - since you're either #1 or #2 on my list of suspects right now it doesn't surprise me that you're trying to push people away from siding with me.

why would u suspect me? I mean go ahead, my role is kinda lame....

Trying to work out the math from Day 1 to make sure what we assume is indeed correct:

Final vote count:
1 - The Jackal: clap (453, 1:55 pm)
1 - BrianD: Pass (330, 8:23)
7 - NTN: JAG (332, 8:31) Jackal (374, 10:26 AM) KWhit (390, 10:45 AM) king (425, 12:26 PM) thomkal (441, 1:42 pm) Tyrith (514, 3:44 PM) Schmidty (537, 5:48)
4 - PB: Eagle (334, 8:59 AM) saldana (501, 3:22 PM) path (546, 6:03) ntn (560, 6:14)
9 - KWhit: nfg (482, 2:39 PM) CR (565, 6:44) Brian (579, 7:22) Autumn (581, 7:27) DT (595, 7:39) Telle (598, 7:42) ISiddiqui (599 7:44) Alan (600 7:44) PB (602, 7:44)


- 22 of 24 possible people voted.
- Despite Eaglefan disappearing, his vote did count. I assume if he had not voted prior to leaving then he wouldn't have been able to vote however.

Kwhit had 37.5% of possible votes at the lynch, which occured 23 hours after the previous night0 deadline.

NTN had 29% and Eaglefan had 16.7%.

- I already mentioned before the lynch occured that Kwhit had at least 1 extra "vote" on him that did not show up. So his true vote percentage at lynch was likely at least 41.7%.

- The last official vote on Kwhit came from PurdueBrad at 8:44pm ET, but that was not enough to trigger the lynch. It seems likely that time was the lynching force as soon as we hit 23 hours from the previous night 0 deadline, 40%+ was enough to lynch him as I had speculated might be the case prior to the lynch.

- With 3 less players available, that makes a total of 21 possible votes. We do not know if Eaglefan will be back today to vote (I assume he will be?) or if he (or anyone else that something may happen to today) would count as a possible vote if something happened mid-day. ie: someone get killed mid-day to lower the voter pool.

- Assuming 21 total possible votes however, that means the 40% mark needed to lynch someone at 23 hours after Kwhit's lynch (or just shortly before 8pm ET tonight) would be 9 total votes.

- My guess is an hour earlier we would need 11 total votes, two hours earlier 13 total votes

Well that was a pretty horrible day 1 for us. :( I'm fine actually with DT speculating-I mean he has more info on us on Day 1 than anyone else has had on day 1 before. You might let us in more on what you have though today so we can debate and analyze it as well.

Right now I'm leaning towards a KWhit voter, not sure which one yet. I just think it gave the wolves a pre-made excuse to cover their vote. "I was voting with the only known good-Jack Bauer." But I'm sure the wolves spread their votes out too.

As for the night kills-looks like more than wolves can kill-though given this is 24, that's not surprising I guess. Any ideas on why Tyrith and JAG in particular were chosen? And Habib Marwan showing up as Government? I would have thought as a Neutral given that description.

DT, can you confirm that EF should be trusted?

Which would mean
23:00-23:59 = 40%
22:00-22:59 = 50%
21:00-21:59 = 60%

I figured the time frames for previous to 23:00 would be spaced further apart (I think I had 20:00-22:59 as the 50% window), but this could definitely be closer.

That was a rough day 1, losing the eavesdropper, the bg, and a brutal villager (cool role btw). I'm off to drive the last leg but will be on this afternoon.

What do you mean by this? I missed it previously.

I think I would have a better feeling about you if you were more clear than this on your vote on me, Danny, getting your own reasons. You never really responded to my direct questioning yesterday of why you were voting for me. I let it go last night, but now you're back here and ignoring the one "lead" we may have (post-DT KWhit voters) and sticking with me. So it smells a bit to me that you're not only going that way (against perhaps going logic), but also not really giving your own reasons or responding to me.

I would have to say you're pinging me a little right now. I don't mind the vote on me. Just stand up for it yourself and give me something I can at least try to respond to, as I did with path and Tyrith last night.

Unfortunately, I am almost certainly out for the next few hours, so I guess I'll see how you respond when I return.

I'm not sure what you are asking. It was part of last night's discussion.

I mentioned this already, but my vote is certainly not stuck on you. My reasoning for voting you was the initial post you made two nights ago that was a bit off to me, the Kwhit vote when you made it and the fact that you rarely every get any votes or attention early in the game and I wanted to change that. The reason I am not jumping on all Kwhit voters (or stuck on you) is because we do not know the allegiance of the two lead vote getters before the run on Kwhit.

Well isn't the game about figuring out who has messed up in a post (which I guess would be the easiest way) which indicates that they are a wolf? I assume that someone who got a number of PMs would be able to parse them like we would a bunch of posts.

Sure we'd have to assume based on DT's thoughts on the matter of his PMs and discrepancies he thinks are there, but he just may have more information than the rest of us.

I guess I missed it, I did skip over a couple pages, but even rereading now I didn't see anything about an unlisted vote being on Kwhit?

thats exactly what im saying! normally lots of people can see and look over what it is. here its "oh DT said vote for KWit" but we dont know why. we learn nothing. there is no possible discustion. and we end up with a day one lynch in which we learn nothing. the wolves must be thrilled by this.

I'm still not totally caught up from yesterday evening yet, but I think I agree with what Danny's saying here. I think DT pretty much played it perfectly, and ended up getting the result that he felt was best, while still giving us a lot of voting record to work with.

Generally when more than one person reveals, before we rely on the old "who revealed first" tiebreaker, most of us give each reveal "the sniff test" to see if one reveal is more believable than the other. I think this comes into play in a huge way here (since the reveals were only made to one person, and since no one knows when anyone else revealed, there really is no "first reveal" in that sense), and DT has that info while the rest of us don't, so I think it's on him to give us his opinion, while making sure not to out anyone who he thinks is giving an honest reveal. If I recall, it's not like DT suggested any candidates out of nowhere -- he just gave his more-informed opinion of the candidates that others had voted for.

Danny, here's the post Alan was talking about.

Well as I said, I'm not going into any more specifics. I simply was letting everyone know for math purposes so we could figure out the lynch requirements.

I disagree -- it looks there's a lot of movement in the voting record, even if you take out any effect that DT had on it.

Thanks Pass

wait... what? we have no meaningful voting record.. since it was an unopposed stampeded. and DT got Kwit lynched for nothing. he should have said, Kwhitt has told me he is a vanilla villager....so it wont kill us when he dies. instead of endorsing his lynching with no info!

vote passacaglia

yeah a lot of people stampeding to kwhitt after DT endorsed him.

i need to make an excel spreadsheet of what everyone says their roles/powers are because going back and forth to my pile of PM's is becoming tedious

Dt, did you get my question about EF? Do you feel really good about trusting him?

I have never seen the show 24, but Claphamsa I am assuming has a role on the show that likes being overly argumentative about everything. Who would that be in the tv show? :) :)

I don't know how much clearer I can put it. There is info there, even if you *take out* any effect that DT had on it. By this, I mean that there were votes made before people followed DT on KWhit. Some of those were people following DT on ntn, but even if you take THOSE out, there are still other votes there for us to analyze.

there's plenty of movement in the voting record even before i endorsed KWhit - the moving of BrianD multiple times, and the double run-up-and-down on NTN (how rare is that btw...crazy swing) among other things.

And if you read close enough Clap I did present several options based on what people PM'd to me (one of which was you let's not forget) and people were free to ask me questions/discuss with me/offer their opinion as to which of those options (fully disclosed that i was acting based on my read of PM's people sent to me) we should pursue for the day. I was what...the 5th vote on KWhit? At that point there was

a) sufficient other momentum moving towards him (votes 3,4)
b) it was later in the day
c) he was one of the three viable candidates
d) I made a gut-decision based on the info that I had

So trying to paint it as some sort of dictatorial move by me is pretty incorrect. And trying to get me worked up so that I get emotional so that people think that if/when my vote ends up on you today/tomorrow that it's a personal vendetta is not going to work either.

I don't feel that his dissapearance is related to whether he is good/bad if that is what you are getting at. It's related more towards the character that he is. But that character could be either good or bad.

Also, again I've only skimmed this, but even I am pretty sure that KWhit did not tell DT that he is a vanilla villager.

1. KWhit was NOT a vanilla villager. Did you read his death reveal?
2. DT asked us which sounds more believable -- every 36 hours, or once per calendar week. KWhit's death reveal said he could use his wiretap once per calendar week.

I think this is the crux of your problem with DT. If you're thinking that DT wanted us to lynch KWhit because he was "just a vanilla villager" then yeah, that's a problem. But the reason DT thought we should go after KWhit is because he thought that his power seemed more fake.

DT, can I ask what kind of read you have on clap? I'm thinking that I would have a lot more trust in him if he revealed his role and tell us he's good in the thread, then had you confirm that that's what he told you. But if you don't think that's a good idea, or have a better idea, that's cool with me.

Yeah....I think DT made a good choice....but in the end he was wrong. I dont know much right now. I just know clap is pinging my wolfdar as you guys say. Very aggressive and very little reason. Alot of words, not much thought. I will be keeping my vote inside of my pocket for now but it is leaning that way.

DT, are you a fan and knowledgeable about the show 24?

My multiple moves has come up twice now, and I wanted to address that. All of my moves had a reason which should be pretty clear from the posts. My vote for EagleFan was one of the first votes made trying to encourage others to vote and create a voting record. My switch to The Jackal happened when there was a 2-2 tie with PB. The intention here was to see who would start scrambling. I switched over to PB when DT let us know that lynching The Jackal was a bad idea. I then switched to KWhit when DT let us know that wasn't a bad vote.

Day 1 votes have no real reason behind them, and DT was the only one with any kind of information. Better to follow some information than none.

I'm off for a while, be back in the afternoon

Sounds good to me!

He's been pinging my wolfdar since yesterday, as I mentioned, he was one of the 3...now he's one of the 2 left from that intial "pinging"

I watched the first couple seasons (first 2.5 maybe?). Then kinda fell off the wagon. But rest of the family are big fans.

*lies on the ground*

:(

Is it a role that pretty much has to be a good guy's role, or is it something that a wolf could have also?

could be either. if he's evil then the role is just a cover anyways

Fair enough, I guess. Clap, do you have a problem with revealing your role?

Anyway, until we hear more from him...

VOTE CLAPHAMSA

did you read my comment? oh wait no you said you didnt!

my comment was.... what could Kwitt have said to DT to make him think that it was a good idea to lynch him? NOTHING unless it was that he had no relevant role.

becauseof my PM? I don't want people to think you know something that you dont. we already have one dead villager because of you.

Exactly. And hey, sometimes it may end up wrong, but its better than flailing around in the dark.

pass, if i was a wolf i would have just lied.

I read your comment. When I said I only skimmed it, I meant that I only skimmed last night. I've got some work to take care of before I examine it more closely.

As for your comment, I thought I answered that for you: I believe that KWhit told him exactly what his role was (and I think that's pretty well documented in the thread yesterday), but it looked like it conflicted with other roles in a not-very-believable way. It seems likely to me that DT would reach the same conclusion that the majority of us would (kinda what makes it the majority) when evaluating the reveals, so I don't see the need to get hell bent about it.

I may be wrong but I have a strongfeeling.


Vote Claphamsa

because i don think we should blindly trust DTs gut?

It seems like you're discouraging us for using his info on votes, which should only help the wolves. DT, despite yestserday's result, is the most powerful weapon we have. As I said earlier I can't imagine how the wolves can beat us in the end with him. One way would be if we start ignoring his advice, which seems to be your intent.

Day one almost always ends with a villager lynched, it's not like following DT resulted in worse than that.

Anyway, that's a really surprising night result. It seems they do get a "night kill", I'm not sure how the timing worked out with our lynch vote, maybe we can figure that out.

What do we make of two kills? Was one a wolf kill and one a villager/neutral kill? I wouldn't be surprised to know there was a villager who can make a kill. Maybe they knew JAG's role and assumed he was bad since he was a foreigner?

It seems he had a pretty relevant role to me. Being able to dig into a possible suspect's PM's is just about as good as a scan.

I don't get where you're going here, clap. DT is our only known good. He is also going to be the main clearinghouse for information. I don't envy him his role.

Especially given he's the only one who doesn't have a chance with Kim Bauer.

I need to get the voting record in some form that makes sense to me and examine it. But I'm inclined to either go after one of the vote getters yesterday to see what we learn, or follow DT's hunches, which at this point have me looking at clap, who certainly is making some suspicious noise, probably to try to discourage us from following a DT hunch that leads us right to him.

Actually the more I think about that the more I think clap's making a desperation move here. I'll hold my vote for now though.

I'm going under the assumption that we've got a wolf and a neutral kill. The "disease" sounds very much like a biological weapon that would be developed by the conspiracy. The throat-slitting sounds much more conventional. The fact that the victim of the throat-slitting was Marwan makes me think that he was targeted for being foreign. I think one of our fellow government members thought he knew something and took a shot.

DT is having connection issues, he'll be on asap.

Hoops has been tied down at a client work site this morning and thus not as available. I'm currently catching up and will be processing any needed actions shortly.

And when/if we do know the roles of the people who were up for the lynch yesterday we will have more insight into the voting. So there's a lot of potential info we can analyze from the day 1 vote.

???
EF whats up?

Hmmm... I'm interested to see what Eaglefan can tell us. Maybe we can get some new clues.

Hi all. I am back but have nothing to tell as of yet. I had to go dark for a day to trigger another ability. I have been PM'ing DT throughout the day with my PM's. I was still allowed to use my 4 PM's yesterday, just not post. That is how he knew I was well.

It looks like a rather disappointing start.

I have a few suspicions based on what I have been reading but want to send some of that DT's way to let him sort things out. I am quite concerned with one event that took place but that is something for "Jack" and I to sort out at a much later date and time.

So do we know anything more today that we did yesterday?

Bah, that was a crappy night phase.

clap, I'm really not sure why you have such a hardon for going after DT because of KWhit's lynch. Yeah, he was wrong about him, but presumably he received quite a few role reveals in PMs, and with absolutely no info to go on during day one, I think a lot of us were ok with him working up a candidate based on a sketchy role PM. Plus, others were suspicious of KWhit already anyways.

Doesn't look like it, at least not publicly. I'm sure there are people that have learned some things, but I doubt it becomes public right away.

Voting today may have to be based off what could be considered suspicious votes from yesterday, maybe in combination with how DT is feeling.

I've been looking back over the votes from yesterday, and nothing is really jumping out at me. One thing I noticed is that with all of the votes on PB, ntn, and Jackal, nobody really defended anyone and tried to pull votes off of them. People made their own defensive statements, but I didn't see any subtle manipulation to move votes away from them. The only thing that looked slightly weird was the second run on ntn, but at that time, only PB was also targeted.

I'm starting to wonder if both ntn and PB are good...in a game with no deadline and lynches happening as soon as there are enough votes...protecting wolves has to happen much more quickly.

That's a good point I hadn't thought of.

I have no hard on.... unless there are cuthbert pics up!

What im trying ot say is.... we cant blindly follow DT! yes he has more info, but of how much value is it? unless someone PMs him and says im a wolf, or 2 pm him and say im the seer... its info, but thats it!

he needs to temper his statemtns of possible guilt unless he KNOWS something.

I actually agree with you that we can't blindly follow what DT says. After all, Jack is often led down some blind alleys.

You have to realize though that the one person who knows the most about what is going on in this game is DT. Everyone with a role good or bad will be going through him (I can't imagine why they wouldn't) and he's got to sift through everything and try and make some judgement as to what is real and what isn't.

But when you ask him specific questions, that bothers me. I don't want him talking in thread about everything he knows or hears. As he did yesterday, I trust that he will hint in thread when it is necessary.

And though I agree about following blindly, his opinion does carry weight and it should, and he should continue to give his opinion where he feels it is valid.

How others react to that might tell us a lot, IMO.

Yeah, as long as we don't revert to mob mentality and keep discussion ongoing I think we can avoid following DT too blindly, especially if there's no clear info.

As a note: I am currently in contact with DT, but he's having problems accessing the site for unknown reasons.