Obama's goose isn't cooked yet, but it's in the oven now.

I confess that abortion isn't my big issue, so I'm asking this question sincerely. Is there a case currently working its way towards the Supreme Court that could allow the justices to revisit Roe, or is this just more of a hypothetical?

Mentioning here since there was some talk many pages ago about whether Georgia might be in play this November.

Obama campaign shifting some people out of Georgia | ajc.com

Obama campaign shifting some people out of Georgia

Nearly three weeks after dropping its TV ads, the Democratic presidential campaign of Barack Obama will shift personnel out of Georgia into more competitive states like North Carolina, staffers confirmed Tuesday.

The movement of resources reflects a quickly tightening, state-by-state race for the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the White House.

Campaign officials declined to specify how many of approximately 75 paid Obama staffers will be redeployed, and denied that the move signaled reduced expectations in the state.

“Even if a huge number of people left, we’d still have the largest presidential campaign staff in the history of the state of Georgia,” said Caroline Adelman, spokeswoman for the Obama campaign in Georgia.

Voter registration drives will continue apace, and two new campaign offices will be opened this week in south DeKalb County and Savannah, Adelman said.

Democrats in Georgia are counting on an Obama-driven surge of voters to halt a six-year decline up and down the ballot.

But Republicans have belittled claims by Obama supporters that Georgia, which hasn’t cast its electoral college votes for a Democrat since 1992, is seriously contested territory.

Since the January primary season, Obama has aired more than $2 million worth of television ads in state. Republican John McCain has spent his money elsewhere, but in statewide polls — the most recent nearly a month old — the Republican maintains an average lead of more than 6 percentage points, according to the web site RealClearPolitics.com, which tracks polling data.

Two weeks ago, Gov. Sonny Perdue, a Republican, issued a mocking invitation to Democrats, advising them to “spend as much money as possible in this state. Millions and millions of dollars.”

On Tuesday, it was the Republican National Committee’s turn to chortle. “After spending over $2 million dollars in ads and investing significant manpower, Barack Obama’s campaign has finally realized that his partisan record is out of step with the values of Georgia voters,” said RNC spokeswoman Katie Wright.

Even last month, at the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe declared that Georgia remained one of 18 targeted “battleground” states.

But that was before McCain and Alaskan Gov. Sarah Palin, the GOP pick for vice president, received a substantial bump in national polls from last week’s Republican National Convention in St. Paul. ...

You have been bringing up this scare tactic all year long and it really does sound like a one-trick pony. Why are you bringing up stuff that happens 15-20 years when you know damn well that ever since Clinton, partisan politics have intensified to where if McCain nominates a social conservative (that's a big if since he never liked them, apart from trying to get elected), there would be a firestorm with a very, very hostile Senate (and Congress in general).

I am a strong advocate of putting the brakes on Congressional legislation and Executive powers, as per the Constitution. Even if a social conservative would get by the Senate, that would bother me far less than a single party passing special interest, election favor bills with the president having no balls to veto anything.

There are always abortion cases making their way to the court, but they are usually about what kind of restrictions can be placed on Roe instead of an outright challenge. The last serious direct challenge the court heard was Planned Parenthood v. Casey. However, I can guarantee you that thousands of briefs will be written the second Stevens steps down.

Oops. On second thought, don't unpack your bags yet, boys. Maybe Pennsylvania or Michigan would be a better destination.

At the rate things are going, maybe Illinois would be a better choice ;)

You mean the same firestorm that took place when Alito was confirmed? The Democrats couldn't even muster up 40 to agree to a filibuster, and this was a nominee whose abortion views were well known because he participated in a circuit court ruling on the Planned Parenthood v. Casey case. In fact, his abortion views were so extreme, he voted to uphold the spousal notification law, which was the only restriction that the Casey court rejected other than the outright reversal of Roe. McCain won't even have to appoint someone so blatantly conservative. He can appoint someone who is a little more friendly, but still a solid conservative vote, like Roberts.


Well that's a different argument then. I'm sure the Democrats will give a McCain administration problems with legislation that he attempts to pass. However, they can't just continue to block every nominee McCain appoints. At some point, it's going to look like stonewalling, and the public (the same public that favored Alito's confirmation 54%-28% In Poll, 54% Back Alito's Confirmation) will not tolerate that for very long.

Given that McCain's convention bounce is already diminishing it seems odd to be so convinced of victory. Especially from people who have urged caution at every step when Obama led in the polls.

This is wh
 

A REAL substantive critique of Obama's chances. By a republican adviser.

Bloomberg.com-Opinion

*Sigh*

I thought the Apostle of Peace, the annointed Obama was above such things...

Obama Says McCain Is Offering Fake Change: 'You Can Put Lipstick on a Pig, But It's Still a Pig'

Besides...isn't talking about pigs against his Muslim...er Christian religion?

dola -- lamest damage control spin ever...

UPDATE: Obama senior adviser Robert Gibbs insists the senator was not referring to Palin. "That's an old expression," Gibbs says.

Bucc, frankly, the way I see it is that if John McCain wins this election, it means that one of three scenarios is in play:

1) Senator Obama's get-out-the-vote efforts won't be half as successful in November as they were in the primaries, and the diminished Democratic turnout carries McCain to victory. Because that turnout would be unevenly distributed, we could see the Legislative/Executive split you refer to. Or, more likely, a split in control of the Senate (likely Democratic in this case) and the House (likely Republican, since many more seats are up for grabs).

2) Senator McCain's get-out-the-vote/swing-the-vote efforts benefit tremendously, allowing him to overcome the machine the Obama campaign has built. If that happens, I have to think it would have a rising-tide effect on Republican prospects in the House and Senate, UNLESS McCain's "maverick" brand enables him to escape what otherwise is a general Republican fatigue, resulting in Democratic gains in the Congress and a Republican President.

3) McCain's turnout doesn't dramatically increase as a result of the Palin pick, but somewhere along the line, people who would otherwise have been likely Democratic voters abandon the Obama campaign, for whatever reason. This is, I think, the least likely outcome, if only because of Ralph Nader and Florida in 2000.

Only in one, maybe one-and-a-half (if you want to split hairs) of those three McCain victory scenarios do I see the Democrats retaining full control of the Congress.

I guess I'm just not convinced that Obama could have a coattail effect but that McCain would have to resign himself to dealing with a Democratic Congress. I just can't see a plausible turnout scenario that benefits him without also benefiting the Republican Party at large.

:confused: Who exactly is convinced of victory?

Enough with the bullshit victimization card.

Was it a problem when McCain said the same thing about Hillary or when one of McCain's advisors wrote a book with that title?

Vic and Jon seem pretty confident.

Buc: Iask this sincerely. Given your preference for a split government, why didn't you believe in voting for Kerry in 2004? What's different?

Vic is quite rightly saying that NC isn't in play either. And Jon was making a joke.

Wow... quite an overreaction there.

Is there a thread where moderate undecideds can go to talk about this stuff? There is a lot of good information in this thread, but it is drowning in all of the partisan bullshit from both sides.

Same old bullsh*t...It's okay if your team does it, but if the other team does it...where's the f*cking flag, ref!!!!!!!

LOL, do people still actually think Obama is a closet Muslim??? Seriously??? Didn't he, like, have a pretty big media issue regarding a certain rev. of his from a very un-Islamic church???

I'm so tired of the Republicans obsession with "winning the right way." This is American politics, it's dirty, you must do anything and everything you can to win, no matter how cynical or untrue.


:p

There's someone at my work that says Obama shouldn't be President because he's a Muslim. There's also someone at my work that says the hit on Tom Brady was dirty because you should never try to make a tackle below the waist. I'm honestly which one of them annoys me more.

About that NC Poll....

He wasn't.

Someone asked this before in the primaries thread and my answer was that in the past 4 years, I have grown in my education and conviction of my liberatarianism. I have been talking about this for years but before, it was more of a protest against partisan polarization. While I still protest (it's the anarchistic side of libertarianism), I have come to view the only practical solution for Washington is to limit the damages both branches can cause. But more importantly, I have come to loath any solutions coming out of that place and those putting their faith in such solutions. Alternatively, the real solution can be done locally in the giving of our time, monies and resources in helping those around us, thus causing less reliance on federal solutions and political promises.

Shh, don't let this get out or we'll start getting power point presentations with each post. If they knew there was an undecided here they'd really have it cranked up.

In my short time here, I've learned that SFLcat likes to rustle the feathers of those who allow him to.

Did you see the goose is in the oven line? It doesn't matter though. No triumphalism on either side will matter come November. It's going to be a very close election no matter what.

Thanks. Refreshing to know that all of my humor isn't completely lost on the FOFC ;)

Interview with Cindy McCain and her son, talking about being drifting and NASCAR fans on E:60, the ESPN sports magazine. Probably a contrast to the Obama interview they did a few weeks ago. It's fine enough, haven't seen many interviews with her.

I actually have given this some thought (since I have complained about the same thing despite momentary weaknesses). The only solution I have come up with is taking from one of the Werewolf games: have a thread for each of the two partisan groups (and keeping the opponents out), and have a thread for those not falling into either group. The fallacy is that some (esp. some of the more vocal posters here) don't view themselves as partisans.

It's one thing to attack, it's another to whine like little children. I think I've been pretty consistent favoring the former and disparaging the latter regardless of party affiliation.

If you don't know by now, do the country a favor & just sit this one out.

SackAttack/Josh, nowhere have I read talking about any chance the Republicans have of capturing either Congressional body. If there was a good chance that the Republicans would take the Senate, then I would change my tune since my main point has been for the Legislature/Executive to cancel each other out. Dreamingly, I would love for Congress to simply stop sending awful bills like the Energy, Farm and Mortgage bills to the president's desk.

Just trying to help the Senator keep it straight...kind of like Stephanopoulos did during their interview. :)

mmm hmmm.... when pigs fly.

This is McCain talking about the issues. Disgraceful.

edit: BTW, I'm cool with the citing of the article comments, but to insinuate that thought that he's for education of sex education for kindergartners before they read is sad politics.

I thought it was an old expression.

Washington Wire - WSJ.com : Obama Puts Different Twist on Lipstick

OMG! John McCain called Hillary Clinton a pig! He's a sexist and should apologize immediately! I'm a partisan hack!

sisu: "You can put lipstick on a pig"

Dick Cheney used the same line to attack John Kerry! Dick Cheney=Barack Obama

I'll stand by my assertion that North Carolina isn't in play, which I first pointed out in the spring when some people on here were swooning about Obama's chances of picking up North Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee, and basically telling me I didn't know what I was talking about, and that we would have to throw away the old electoral college model because Obama "transcends" everything we've ever come to know about conventional electoral college politics.

I've pretty much been right on the mark with my prediction of how this presidential campaign was going to progress this summer and fall (which I made during the height of the FOFC Obama euphoria during the spring primary season).

The spotlight and scrutiny is now in full force, and the Democratic nominee for president has the thinnest political resume of any presidential nominee in 68 years, when Wendell Wilke headed the Republican ticket against FDR.

I'll stand by the statement that I made in the spring -- McCain is going to win this election comfortably.

If that happens, we will go to war with Iran and then we will really have problems.

you all will. i'll be moving to fucking canada

Well, if it is an old statement, it must be really old, because I'm not familiar with it. And considering the context of how he used it, hard not to think he's referring to Palin...if this resonates, it could be Obama's "Dean scream."

At least you won't have to worry about global warming up there, eh!

Please, someone tell me again how SFL is anything but a troll. I'd love to know.

It's still not as bad as McCain calling his wife a c*%#.

As opposed to our beloved left wingnuts and their unbiased pearls of wisdom? Get a grip.

Did someone say fear tactics?

Anyone read Nate Silver's latest? He pointed out that McCain's lead in national polling is interesting, but it actually increases the (still small) probability that Obama could lose the popular vote and win the election. I'm curious how much lawyering there would be this time. :D