Order to go?

It isn't really a convenient spot for us, about 30 minutes away. That's why we would build it all in to the day.

Mine is only 2 miles away.

There's a restaurant that we really like but is about 40 min away. Wife and I have talked about ordering while in the car, picking it up, and then eating in the car in the parking lot. Kinda like Sonic, a cheap date night.

I did that recently. I own some commercial real estate in the town I grew up in, about 30 minutes away. Best pizza in the world down the street. The place has been around 100 years. I had to do something in town and ordered a pie and ate it steaming hot in the car. Was amazing.

I've actually come to like curbside pickup better than being in the restaurant. I bring the food home, warm it up or crisp it up in the toaster oven just like I want it, and it's frankly better than in the restaurant. I want my food hot enough to burn my mouth and no place will serve it as hot as I want it - now I can take care of it myself. And I don't have to pay for drinks (although I guess the extra I've been tipping more than makes up for the savings on drinks).

Yep. Got me some Grindhouse Killer Burger last night, they opened a new one in Brookhaven about 10 minutes from me. Pickup, home in 10 minutes, and still warm. If my wife did not like eating out so much, I would not go to restaurants any more :)

Did go to the Beltline last week to eat outside, and we are both vaccinated, so it was not too bad. But pretty soon it will be 90 degrees and nobody will want to sit outside any more.

A year ago today was our last normal sports day. The NBA got in a few games the next day, but also cancelled two others, and that was that. I remember how fast it happened. Looking back at this thread, even on the 10th, we were kind of stunned at the prospect of the NBA and NCAA playing without fans. By the next day, it was all over.

I remember in the months to come, being so excited about Korean baseball with robot cheerleaders, and even Belarus hockey - which was the one thing that just continued on uninterrupted for some reason.

I wonder when the first day back is that we'll have full crowds everywhere, across all sports. Will we do that in the summer if the virus turns COVID into a much rarer thing? Or will things still get shut down, or games played without crowds, when there's a small outbreak here and there?

I think of March 11th, 2020 as the "last normal day" before the pandemic. WHO declared COVID a pandemic on that day. And then, within a couple hour period in the evening: the NBA shut down, Tom Hanks said he had COVID on social media, and Trump announced his travel ban on national TV. Each of those spoke to different segments of the population and they happened in such quick succession that it went from theoretical to tangible very quickly.

SI

The NBA shutting down was the tipping point for me from "I wonder how bad this might get" to "Oh, this is already worse than I realized."

It was also the last night of Broadway. I know because I was supposed to take 20 students to see a show.

When conference basketball tournaments started getting cancelled that was when it hit me. I remember there was a Big East game at noon. they played the first half then shut it down. I knew at that point this was real.

I am going to go back later today and look over some of the early comments. should be interesting.

It was huge in Houston because it was also the day they shut down the Rodeo (900K people had already come and gone but it was only halfway through). My wife and I had been kicking around going the previous weekend but I was like "a whole lotta nope" as we got closer to it

SI

My wife was in Florida for my daughter's spring break college softball tournament and in the span of like 18 hours it went from "once this tournament is over they're going to assess next week" to "we're probably playing through Friday and coming home early" to "we're probably coming home after Wednesday's game" to "we just came off the field and the season is canceled and we've been told to pack up and go home for the rest of the school year."

They came home and we had our last meal in a restaurant that Saturday the 14th. The following week, all non-essential businesses were shut down so I rushed out to get a haircut within 30 minutes of the announcement and that's the last haircut I got from a professional. My wife now does it and frankly, I'm not sure I'll pay for a haircut again.

NBA shutting down and Tom Hanks getting it were the reality checks for me.

I remember that my work had an out of town conference planned for the end of May. And my co-worker and I were excited about going.

And when this was all starting to happen in March and things started getting pushed back, we said to each other "Well, I'm glad that our conference is in late May so COVID will be under control by then and we can still go."

We had a Disney cruise scheduled over thanksgiving and had the same thoughts. Once in saw what was happening on those ships my stance changed pretty quickly.

The vaccine floodgate is opening in Wisconsin. The announced list of pre-existing conditions making one eligible includes obesity. That would make 64% of the state, including myself, eligible. They will probably prioritize those with multiple pre-existing conditions. But now I won’t have to fake being a farmer to get vaccinated.

If you base obesity on the BMI chart, I bet 75% of the country is technically obese. I'm 5'9", weigh 170-172 lbs and run 30 miles a week and technically I'm overweight.

No way! That is bull crap.

Pretty much impossible to get a vaccine here still. Just no appointments available.

Same. I finally found some and by the time I filled out my information, the appointment availability disappeared. It's like fricking ticketmaster

I guess they pop up around 6am and are gone in minutes. All this talk about a vaccine available for everyone by May 1 means jack shit if you can't get enough places to administer it.

My fear is my elderly parents won't get it by the time they allow everyone to get it and will have to wait even longer while younger people flood the schedule.

Probably a state by state thing but Illinois is trash.

5'9" 170 is overweight according to the official US BMI calculator. It's ridiculous.

To be obese at that height, you need to weigh over 200 lbs., but that seems to be more the rule than the exception in the people I see on a day to day basis. In Kentucky...

Calculate Your BMI - Standard BMI Calculator

I think there are two factors on the BMI thing, not to get too off-topic here. One is that we've lost our perspective on what healthy is due to the fact that so many people are overweight. What we tend to think of as 'a few extra pounds' is often borderline obese. But also, BMI doesn't take into account your natural build; i.e. people who are legitimately 'big-boned' find it almost impossible to fit into the guidelines. That's only going to shift BMI by about 2-3 points though.

That is me. I am 6-2/ 210 with a wide frame. Last time I was in the 180 range I was in high school.

Just had a student inform me they tested positive after my in-person class yesterday. I'm probably fine, as I've had my first shot, but I don't know what this may mean for quarantine and my second shot scheduled for next Friday.

There is more variance here than you are stating depending on the person. I am between 6-2 and 6-3
260 pounds. I'm naturally bigger and also have lifted weights reasonably often for many years but even at my skinniest point with extreme calorie restriction at around 18 I weighed 210. 235-240 is probably my ideal fairly fit weight but I'd still be obese according to bmi. I'm not ever getting into the what is considered the ideal range for bmi unless I literally starve myself and stop physical activity

Somewhat interesting article on possible vaccine passports. It will cause some "discrimination" for those that haven't yet gotten the shot ... those that want but not yet available, those that can't because it's not yet been approved, and those unwilling. Also, the passport will cause "discrimination" globally also.

And vaccine passports will likely discrimination in hiring practices (e.g. all things held equal, it would be prudent for employer at a fast food to just hire a vaccinated person).

These issues won't be a problem after 1 or 2 years but until then, I think it's a fair concern.

Opinion: COVID vaccine passports may be coming — what’s the downside? - MarketWatch

Had my shot on Wed so 4 days now. Shoulder is still a little sore but no big deal. Thu was the worst (but not too bad). Daughter (asthma) was able to make an appt.

Told the kids planning on Galaxy's Edge this Christmas. I figure we'll be over this by then (unless there is a nasty surprise with mutants). My guess is theme parks will be open and masks will be voluntary. Give everyone something to look forward to.

It doesn't take account muscle either. Adrian Peterson is considered obese by BMI.

It really should be done by body fat percentage.

FWIW, an opinion piece on something many of us have asked ourselves

Am I a jerk for getting a COVID-19 vaccine if I feel healthy and work from home? - MarketWatch

I have a buddy who firmly believes you should simply get it as soon as you can, damn the consequences. His rationale is that it's not an equitable system, there is no enforcement, and we aren't doing enough to actually prioritize well.

He and I align on most things, but I don't know how I feel about that justification.

I'm not going to falsify a form to get it, even a checkbox on a website. But, I am about two quickly-moving categories away and am on a bunch of wait lists, so, I'll get mine soon enough, hopefully.

First of all, you don't want to share it on social media but you're OK being quoted with full name in an article that will be shared on social media. Oh-kay?

Second of all, what this guy did is not "cut in line." Anyone who is eligible has every right to get a shot. He didn't take someone else's spot. He got the same appointment anyone else could get.

Pennsylvania is still in 1A which is primarily health care and population over 65. However, it is the state with 8th highest percent of population in that age group so it will take longer to get through them all. On the other hand Georgia ranks 47th which is one of the reasons why they have been able to open up to more people. Alaska is also very low and one of the states that has vaccinated a high percentage.

This part of the article speaks to not only the debate about who gets the vaccine first, but almost every debate related to COVID-19.

Some of the language we used could have been thought out better.

When we were making cost/benefit decisions about how much social contact to have, we kept framing it in terms of keeping "essential" businesses open. That's a bad term to use. Very few people who work don't need the money. So every job is "essential" on some level.

Same thing with vaccines. I understand what states mean when they say "essential" workers. Nurses and prison guards have jobs that they cannot do remotely that constantly put them in contact with ultra-high risk populations.

But we shouldn't frame it as that they are "essential" in a way that accountants aren't. We should talk about high-risk jobs, etc.

Language matters.

Ohio is opening the vaccines to obese adults this Friday. They're opening it up to all adults on the 29th.

Do I need a doctor's note saying I'm obese? Or can I just walk in with my 35 BMI. And I'm not Adrian Peterson.

I’m diabetic so I qualified. No one asked me why I qualified when I went. I suspect you will be fine. They really don’t have the time to screen everyone.

As you were mentioning "essential" workers, I thought immediately about during snow storms that they often mention that essential workers should still report. I'm wondering at the beginning that borrowed that approach as part of the crisis management process.

The thing about personal responsibility and taking care of yourself is interesting in its randomness. Apparently so many people objected to smokers being part of the early groups that the CDC removed them, but isn't eating a big mac and fries on a daily basis as much a choice as smoking in terms of adverse health consequences?

https://abc13.com/woman-resists-offi...78b-OnKr1KyNRs

Wanna see a white woman arrested in texas?

Guarantee Fox News runs with the story she was arrested for not wearing a mask when that couldn’t be further from the truth.

I really am looking forward to the reactions when others decide to be rebellious about other things besides wearing a mask. We have had about three weeks of people with "Don't Tread On Me" avatars arguing in the community Facebook group about stiffening the guidelines of people, let's be honest women, sunbathing in their yards.

Saw a house flying an all black American flag next to a "Don't Tread on Me" flag. I always wonder why men like to advertise their small penis so boldly.

Someone in my neighborhood took down their Trump flag and replaced it with a Space force flag

It is. But at least people who eat poorly have the argument that they have to eat something. I agree with your point in general. Americans are swamped with bad food options everywhere they go. It takes real willpower to consistently eat well.

Just to keep things in perspective, roughly 8500 (based on the 7 day avg) people have died from covid in the last week. That's still a really big number.

gah! new mutation in stupidityville Duhsyltucky....

Freaking unvaccinated assholes entered a nursing home and hospitalized 4 unvaccinated resident and 1 vaccinated one.

Based on this clip ...

Rand Paul is saying, after you are vaccinated, why wear a mask.

Fauci is saying you have to wear a mask because there are other "variants" that your vaccine may not protect you as well. I didn't hear him say to stop spreading it also.

I don't agree with how Paul said it but do agree with his central point. If Fauci is right, we'll never be done wearing masks because there will be additional variants popping up here and there.

Now, if Fauci said variants/mutations get weaker from variant #1 to #2 to #3 but wear them now because these variants aren't "weak" (e.g. Europe), I would agree with him.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/...k-in-politics/

I love how Paul keeps using the fact that he was practically the first politician to get covid (and then explicitly refused to isolate) as some sort of position of superiority/knowledge. Shouldn't we all be able to dismiss his opinion immediately?

Health-wise, we clearly would all be better off if most people wore masks permanently. The question is whether that's a reasonable expectation to have for society.

I expect the mask guidance will change when we've reached a higher percentage of people vaccinated.

I don't get how Rand Paul doesn't understand the concept of varients. The word itself indicates that it isn't the same exact same thing you are getting vaccinated from.

However at some point we'll have herd immunity, and as long as there is no vaccine resistant strain out there by that time (the one in California lowers antibodies but the vaccine still works against it), we should be ok to start getting to normal.

But wearing a mask, social distancing, etc until we get to herd immunity is important so we don't help other varients along.

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It's like so much of this crap. He gets it, but he wants to try and grandstand and make a really stupid point.

"Only 20% of people are vaccinated, masks do help prevent spread, and we're not sure how much being inoculated decreases the spread, especially with the virus still running wild... but my constituents think they're stupid because it was made into a culture war thing so why should we wear them?!?"

It's like Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley and their stupid points about the insurrection. They know the answers but they're just carnival barkers, whipping up crowds into frenzies with pandering even when they know better.

SI

I'm a little confused about how herd immunity related specifically to variants and not the base virus. I'd like clear answers to the following questions:

1. Does the vaccine reduce the chance of me getting sick from the known virus?
2. Does the vaccine prevent me from spreading known virus to others?
3. Does the vaccine prevent me from getting sick from variants?
4. Does the vaccine prevent me from spreading variants?

I'm confused about what we know about the answer to #3. If the vaccine is less effective in preventing sickness from strains, I'm not sure how herd immunity from vaccination changes anything. If the answer to #2 is No, I'd like to that stated more clearly. You need to keep wearing masks because you might be an asymptomatic carrier even if vaccinated and that applies to all strains.

So far the vaccine works against all known varients (although it may be slightly less effective - however the vaccine would prevent you getting seriously sick regardless). There isn't enough evidence out there that you can't spread Covid 19 after you've been vaccinated, though it is likely you wouldn't be able to.

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Just a data point on Pfizer.

How effective is the first shot of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine?

Not a medical expert but from what I've read ...

1) Yes
2) I think officially this is not known thru studies but most will say yes
3) Yes
4) Yes

The deeper question I think to the "yes" is by how much. Question #1 is probably the most studied and there are stats out there. The % chance with other questions is not known as much.

First off, Fauci is much smarter than Rand Paul, and not by a little. In this area, he may as well be Einstein (hyperbole, but not by much). Rand Paul loves to be snarky and pretend like he doesn't get it...but he does. It is clearly obvious that a) we do not know how long the immunity from the vaccines lasts, b) we do not know the full efficacy of the vaccine against all variants, c) there are no guarantees that anyone is 100% immune, and d) herd immunity will reduce the prevalence of the virus in the population. Rand Paul is an idiot.

I'm constantly amazed at the number of people who think it's possible to be an idiot and also earn a medical doctorate and be elected to the Senate multiple times. Those are both accomplishments more impressive than I'll ever achieve in my life, or most other people with above-average IQ will.

I thought the point is that he knows better but was knowingly misleading the public to get votes.

Personally, I'd call that more selfish and evil than stupid, though. Self interest over country and all.

SI

I'm amazed that anyone thinks any of those things are mutually exclusive with being a general idiot.

{shrug}

I've never met Paul, but I will say that Ben Carson is both one of the smartest and one of the dumbest men I've ever met. He's clearly a brilliant neurosurgeon, but he's barely able to put two sentences together about anything else.

Sociological science is pretty clear on this point. IQ is more strongly associated with success, ability to accomplish complex tasks, etc. than any other factor. It isn't close. It simply isn't possible to be an idiot and acquire any sort of advanced degree, nevermind a doctorate.

Good article breaking out skeptics of "health care workers".

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...professionals/

Lots of freedom being expressed on South Beach over the last couple of weeks, huh?

I would like to see stats for the reference group up to college age 22 years but the below statistics does show that teenagers and younger adults don't have the same concerns.

Other than the much lower risk of them hospitalized/dying of Covid, the key risk is spreading it to others ... and don't think we know the stats for that. But it is probably lower borne out by no widespread outbreak in HS or College. My kids are both in college, doing majority of work remote but they live in dorms, have labs etc.

I hear what you are saying. However, it feels like I could go back in this thread during Spring Break 2020 and the two weeks after that and find the same exact discussion. The kids are not going to die, the risk of spreading it to the less vulnerable etc. Has learning been accomplished?

To be clear, I am not talking about canceling Spring Break, going into lockdowns or anything like that. That ship has sailed. As I have said, I believe as more people are vaccinated, things should be more open. I also agree that we have to determine what our tolerance levels are for an increase in cases, hospitalizations, deaths etc. as we open up. It is more a commentary on local officials eliminating all the Covid restrictions, being shocked that the numbers have shot up again and then telling us of their concerns about those numbers.
That sort of outrage feels very hollow. I would prefer that they just say it is the cost we are willing to pay to get back to normal.

Somebody gets it.

I did not say Paul was not smart, he is. He knows exactly how to play his constituents and the public. I was not referring to an IQ, he has a medical degree and should know the answers to the questions he was asking Fauci. He was calling wearing masks theater if you've been vaccinated, but that is just not the case. He knows this as a doctor (or maybe he forgot his oath), but as a politician trying to get elected and keep in the spotlight, he knows exactly what he is doing. He is an idiot, but not in an IQ sense, but in the sense that he is allowing the spread of bad knowledge and condoning it as a doctor.

Last Thursday my supervisor decided we should have a in person branch meeting. Great idea, right? Today I got a contact tracing phone call and was sent for testing and then home to quarantine until next Friday because someone in the meeting tested positive.

I'm fully vaccinated so I'm fine, but hospital policy still requires a quarantine if close and extended contact is made with someone that tests positive and has symptoms.

Paid vacation. What are you complaining about?

The core of what you're trying to say is a defensible argument (though it's also unknowable, because we don't know what's in Paul's mind, only what he says). What you've described here though is not what an idiot is. The term literally means a stupid person or someone of low intelligence. I fully accept that's not what you meant, but in that case he's simply not an idiot - because that's what an idiot *is*.

At least for me, it wasn't paid vacation, it was work from home while also not being able to shop or do anything.

This is exactly it. On top of that it's not like it was in April/May when I was teleworking and nearly everyone else in the hospital was as well. Way lower work load then so telework had no impact on my day to day work. Everyone is mostly back now so the work I can't complete while teleworking is just going to be waiting for me and I'll be behind the day I get back.

I've found the further I get into my analytical/administrative career, the more "time off" means "more work when I get back." I need to figure out how to avoid the horror that is returning from vacation.

I find this especially true for any vacation less than 1 week.

If it's more than one week, people kindof bugger off for bothering you for the mundane day-to-day stuff and go find someone else to help. But I've been taking a number of 2-dayish vacations during the pandemic and it just means more double work days when I get back.

SI

I bring work on vacations, which, nobody seems to understand except people I work with. To have a little "free time" to chip away at some things in a relaxed manner so I can be ahead of them when I get back, gives me a peace of mind that makes my vacations more relaxed, and which makes life easier when I return. It also helps remind me what I love about my job, because the work stuff I pick at on vacation is limited to the stuff I enjoy most.

And now, formally, all adults are eligible in NC on April 7th.

CA is going to 50+ April 1st and all adults April 15th, which is a pretty massive jump from where they were (only just opened it up to underlying conditions mid-March).

Barring a really nasty variant that just wipes out vaccine immunity it does feel like we're getting a handle on this thing (at least in the US and the UK). Famous last words.

I'm all for sharing excess vaccines after US has taken care of the US. But say we should be sharing the excess with non-western allies first, and then after give the rest to COVAX or whoever.

Canada, Mexico (India, Australia if they need it). Any place that has a US base or friendly to the US.

However, I do think the US should continue to help fund/subsidize other neutral developing countries, similar to the $4B contribution to COVAX.

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden...80228bebf75d79

For me this is true to a point. I think part of my issue is I've never been one to let things be; I always want to tinker and create new ways for my workgroup to look at data. It's been very difficult to find backups who are willing to do that / get their hands dirty learning some of the things I've implemented. I really need to get better at making sure the things I create can live on if I'm not around to support them.


See, for me the real joy of vacation is being completely unplugged. I'm not so good at just chipping away at little things; if I open that laptop, I'm going to end up looking up several hours later. Which might be the answer anyway...but just isn't something that I would enjoy, I don't think.

Wery interesting. Fortunately, there are vaccines

So Krispy Kreme is catching grief for offering a free donut to people have been vaccinated against Covid-19, because Donuts are unhealthy too. LOL, why are there so many people that feel a need to call out/'cancel' such trivial shit.

We all know donuts aren't healthy, don't eat one if your are worried about it, or better yet, maybe just eat one instead of the whole fucking box. No good deed goes unpunished.

Krispy Kreme CEO defends COVID vaccine promotion: 'If folks don't want to visit a donut shop, they don't have to'

For the second time in a year, wife and I ate at an restaurant at their outdoor seating. I can definitely see this happening more and more frequently now. It was really nice to enjoy the outdoor weather, watch people and cars going by.

FWIW, a restaurant, beside the one we were at, closed last year presumably because of covid but place was having a grand opening as a Chinese restaurant. One of those burger joints on the other side had recently closed also.

There's a Dec stat that 17% of restaurants closed (another one said 110,000 restaurants closed). I'm kinda surprised only 17%, would have thought more.

BTW - if I ever got a subway franchise (or any restaurant franchise), it must have a drive through and covered outside sitting

In a way, a great sign but who knows what will happen. Admittedly, I fall in the below group.

Biden's 100 days of mask wearing is coming up. I know it's not meant to be "hey, we are done, free to do your thing now" but it will become something like that. The real traction in vaccinations (finally!) is making everyone feel better.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/28/inves...ead/index.html

We just booked a house yesterday to go to Cincinnati this summer.

Talking to my neighbor today. He does home construction and also flips houses. He said work is okay but pretty difficult finding houses for sale/to flip. He said there are multiple offers and houses are going for more than asking. I read something similar on MSM about lack of houses.

There will be a certain point in time when moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures will go ahead. I don't know what will happen then. Is there even an ETA when it will be lifted?

It seems pretty weird because I would have expected a bunch of House for Sale signs like during the GR. But my guess is those have been artificially restricted because of the moratoriums.

I think that is a good model. In retrospect, should we have done something like that during the GR also?

Same thing in our town, people selling houses before they hit the market.
Historically low interest rates are helping to drive the housing sales.

A friend of mine runs a brokerage and said the market is absolutely nuts. He's been working refinances almost non-stop for a year. We bought last June and did a refi last month.

Demand is way above inventory as well. He's seeing crazy shit like people waving inspections and other stuff just to be competitive in this market.

Went to Walmart for a grocery pickup yesterday, and people are clearly either liking the convenience of pickup and/or still concerned enough about COVID to keep using it. Had to wait about 15 minutes to get our order with 4 or 5 employees working.

Had to go in the store to get a couple of things and it was pretty well packed. Most still wearing masks-the crowd could have been due to spring break, nice weather, and Easter coming up and probably an itch for normalcy too.

I get few unsolicited house offers a week in the mail. The market here is particularly ridiculous. The Zillow value of my house has gone up 2.5X in 3 years, and about 50% since COVID started.

That's part of a longer trend here. My initial investment in the Boise housing market was a $10k down payment in 2009. Since then, just paying a regular mortgage payment a few hundred less than what rent for a 2 bedroom apartment is here now, and moving once, I have several hundred thousand in equity.

I'm sure it will all crash down, but, I do daydream about cashing in on the house, and the retirement accounts, and figuring out what my total liquidation (my "cash in a briefcase" number) would be if I just needed to hit the road or fly to Asia or something and never return.

The market in our town is bonkers also. About an hour south of NYC, 5 minutes from the beach, both bus and train stations to NYC within a few minutes. Tons of people from NY looking to buy. The house next to my buddys had an Under contract sign before a For Sale sign.

Is Zillow accurate? We've owned the same house for 15 years so I never really have a reason to check, but I just did and there's no way I'd pay that estimate to buy my house.

It seems to rely on neighborhood comps pretty heavily (which you can also track through Zillow), so I think it's generally pretty solid. But it's just a metric that has its weaknesses. It doesn't know about major improvements made to houses, and it seems to a bit slow to recognize some short-term local trends.

But you may be very surprised to see how much your house would sell for if you haven't paid attention to what's going on in your neighborhood with similar house.

It likely varies by area, but in our area it's running low on its estimates right now.

Mine seems pretty high - about $100K more than I paid for it 15 years ago - but like I said, I've paid zero attention to property values except as it affects my taxes (and I'm still at the original sales price). And it doesn't even factor in that I just added a $50K covered deck!

Same issue we had as a young couple in Florida in the early 2000s though - it's all great to make a killing on your current house, but it pretty much evens out when you go to find something to move into. That was one of the big factors of us moving from Florida to Kentucky back then. We hit the top of the housing bubble perfectly when we left Florida and then got 3 times the house for another $100K (which we made off the Florida house) in Kentucky.

Here in Portland I hear that houses tend to get 40-50 offers in the first day at $50K over listing. :(

Mine, too. Based on list prices for smaller homes, I think we could get 100-150 more than our purchase price.