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Austria opened up a little today, but initial reports are that people stayed at home regardless. There will definitely be a lag between relaxation and normality |
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New York City. NYC is closing in on 11,000 deaths. About 8 million live in the city. THATS IN A LITTLE OVER ONE MONTH! |
I wonder how corporations are going to handle business travel when things start to open up again. I suspect it will be different for each one, will just be interesting to see.
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One thing I've noticed is that the anti-shutdown crowd has real blinders on when it comes to that return to normalcy. A meme going around recently has been about how when we open up, there'll be a 2-hour wait at every restaurant and blah blah blah …
No. It will take months of a widespread, safe vaccine for that to happen, if it ever does. I'm not certain there won't be semi-permanent hangover from this. People's patterns will be broken and some of them will find they like a different way of life better than the one they had. The economy is never going back to like it was, for both good and ill. |
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With how bad they bungled small business relief, how many small restaurants are even going to be open when people feel safe to eat out? |
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To put in in even more mindboggling terms: about 54k deaths were recorded in 2016 (Most recent i found) total from all causes. That is about 4,5 thousand a month. NYCdata: Population Characteristics: Births, Marriages, Deaths and Infant Mortality |
So you're telling me it isn't all a hoax?
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Might just be. Of course, maybe this is the biggest fake event since the moonlanding, you never know ! I mean, hospitals elsewhere are empty so how come this is so different ? (This is the single most infuriating 'argument' the conspiracy nuts in Germany use) |
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I think the authorities are hoping that there is some level of changed behavior. Maybe we don't stand six feet away but you do stand three feet. Maybe me and my three closest friends decided to visit a beer garden that has spaced out tables as opposed to ten of you heading to the 100 square foot bar that already has 200 people in it. To use your example of work, maybe we decide that we can get away with some working from home options a couple days a week. Maybe Zoom into a meeting from our offices instead of piling into the conference room. People will definitely fall back into normalcy at some point. However, I also think there will be enough of the awkwardness of the guy sticking out his hand out for a handshake and the other guy just looking at it variety to at least make people think. One thing that can not be forgotten is how much the virus has spread from us just being ignorant and/or defiant about it. We are probably not going to have as many incidents similar to Rudy Gobert jokingly touching and breathing all over his teammates' and reporters' stuff. How many incidents like that contributed to the spread I don't know. I do think it is more than zero. |
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I think there is zero chance that we do restrictions a second time. That is why I really hope we get this one right. |
I don't - I think there's a pretty high chance, esp. in the fall - just hoping to avoid it until then. If people start dying in large enough numbers, there won't be a real choice.
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Yeah... I hope the antigen tests come down in cost quickly and I can take one that shows I've already been exposed (and offers everyone else who has been exposed the chance to going back to living semi-normally again), and I wouldn't want to do it now when we're worried about hospital bed shortages (though that appears overstated) but if you offered me the chance to knowingly get this and self quarantine for 2 weeks vs giving up two years of my life? I'd probably take the former, and while I'm more willing to be honest in a forum like this than many are in general, I wonder how many other (unmarried & childless) people under the age of 40 would say the same thing. |
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This seems incredibly short-sighted. Once a vaccine is discovered, things will return to normal. You think everyone who rides the subway in NYC to go to work just isn't going to do it anymore? |
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I am in an exact same situation as your brother. |
The stories I'm reading of people traveling through the airports now sound fascinating. I kind of wish I could go somewhere.
My sense of acceptable risk is impacted by the fact that I live with someone who has contact with hundreds of people a day at her job. There's not much I can do to increase my risk at this point. It probably would be safer for me to get on a sanitized plane and quarantine on a beach somewhere. Which I threaten to do daily, in jest. But I'm definitely getting antsy. I'll be the first in line hunting for travel deals when it's legal and ethical to do so. |
I'm content to wait until the end of April and see where we are at. Supposedly two weeks is when Arizona will be at the high point, but we really haven't seen much impact so far. My bet is we roll back to shelter in place in May (and start re-opening restaurants for smaller capacity some time in late June). But, we will see
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I don't think I said that or implied it. With this specific example, a lot of people will still ride the subway. Some of the jobs people used to ride the subway to go to won't exist anymore. Other jobs will eventually replace them, and some of them will be different jobs than the ones that existed before. I think it's likely, for example, that there will be at least some permanent shift towards more people working remotely; a lot of companies that never did that before have had to figure out how out of necessity. Some will want to keep doing it. The balance of employment between industries won't got back to exactly what it was, ditto for some personal behaviors, etc. A disruption of this scale never goes back to what it was before. It's highly debatable what will change and what won't, but I think it's simply inevitable that some things will. |
It's so frustrating that we know what needs to happen to reopen, aggressive testing, tracing, and isolation for those exposed, we just aren't preparing to do any of that at a national level. Some states will be able to do that and some won't and we'll be stuck hoping it turns out okay.
Seeing our testing numbers drop from last week to this week certainly gives me no confidence that we're preparing for the next phase. I don't want to spend a year seeing stories like the one out of NJ where they found 17 bodies at a nursing home. |
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I am in an exact same situation as your brother. |
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Perhaps I'm risk averse (though I -- probably like a good portion of this board -- am 1. over 40 and 2. have kids and OH RIGHT 3. married). Or just, you know, fairly content with being a homebody. But if I'm under house arrest with 2,999 of my closest friends*, and am given the choice of a) staying under house arrest for two years, or b) leaving but upon leaving, 150 of the 3000 (and you don't know which ones) are instantly drowned? I stay under house arrest. * in blocks of four, but with good internet connectivity |
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The family is doing fine. My son's going stir-crazy being stuck at home though. Just have to weather the storm and hope that the world's governments figure out a response to the recession. |
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Hope you have a karaoke machine at home ! :) |
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Eh, that's a little misleading then. NYC is really closer to 20M (List of metropolitan statistical areas) - Wikipedia. Just like Chicago is 9M not 2.7M. That said, 11K deaths in that time anywhere is staggering. SI |
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Why can't you go hiking right now? Is it because of park closure? I only ask because I've been outside now more than normal (mainly because the weather is about the best it will be) and I just maintain distance from other people walking. SI |
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Yeah the numbers are wrong They aren't counting people they find dead. They aren't testing dead people at all. So we're already at 50K dead, probably 1 Million US people have it/had it |
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My first reaction was incredulous. But then I remembered your post and it at least gave me a pause to try and understand where she's coming from. We'll see whether she broaches the subject with me or not. Usually it's her husband who is much more openly political/conspiratorial. But I'd love to be able to ask a couple follow-up questions in a sincere manner to dig a little deeper. |
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His insight was fantastic, and to be able to process that on the fly, and come up with that answer is great. I don't think I would have or could have done that. Typically, if someone wants to engage face to face, and I have to see them pretty regularly, I'm just going to avoid the conversation. Living next to someone is a very different animal. I much prefer the casual hello and small talk, now leave me alone, to the deep socializing and let's get to know one another level of communication. My neighbor right now is pretty much my polar opposite politically, but we can at least have nice conversations about work, family, grilling, and whatever without me feeling like I really know him too well. |
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So true. My neighbor is the head security guard at my kids school. Retired cop. Great guy. Loves the kids and I truly believe would take a bullet for any one of them. The other day he was telling me that we have to protect the at risk population then get everyone else back out. He had been to 4 different stores that day, etc... I was like, ugh, this is the guy responsible for assessing a threat that could keep my kids alive. Great. |
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37-year-old Brandon COVID-19 victim chronicled disease on Facebook up until death | WFLA
This is what i was trying to post the other day but it was too long. This is a friend of a friend (I'm now 2 degrees of Kevin Bacon away from someone that died of it). WIthin the article is a link to their facebook account and the first post has a very long, very deatailed account of everything they went through in her 21 day fight with the disease worth a read |
Thanks for linking, but... I don’t think I can do it. Maybe someday.
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How exactly do you know the death totals are indeed for the metropolitan area and not the core city/5 buroughs ? :confused: The Metropolitan Area after all is not an organisational 'entity' (as far as bureaucracy goes) but merely a 'geographical' one. Here it also includes a lot of territory in New Jersey which is counted seperately. The deaths for Newark for example are counted as happening in New Jersey, not the metropolitan area of New York. If you read any stat (like deaths or births) and it says "New York" this will not include the metropolitan area unless someone goes to the trouble and adds it all up. |
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it's basically just her giving an account of each day and how she feels and especially the bureaucracy of the florida hospital system. |
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Yeah, both the numerator and denominator are wrong. I'm thinking we're closer to the 10-20M range for who has had it but I'm just spitballing now. SI |
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The all-cause mortality rates paint an interesting picture, they point to only 30-50% of the coronavirus related deaths being picked up in the official statistics. With the rest being missed because they have died at home, or at nursing homes/long term care facilities, had it attributed to an underlying conditions, etc, etc. |
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But I suspect that people do go to hospitals in other boroughs if they're closer than the nearest hospital to them and I suspect that NYC proper has a much higher density of hospitals than the other areas. SI |
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Sorry...not being clear. It’s my mental bandwidth, not a technical issue. I just find myself getting even further depressed every time I read some insider account, particularly focusing on healthcare workers. |
Our Church's Synod had it's Covid 19 taskforce meeting last evening. We are suggesting not doing in person worship through May. One epidemiologist on the team is a bit more dramatic (but I guess you want one of those in a team like this) who is telling her fellow congregants that she hopes we can have in person worship by Christmas - with how things have been changing on this, I don't think projecting out 8 months or so is all that wise, but maybe it's her way of getting her folks mentally prepared for how serious it is?
My job (federal government) is doing work from home until May 1 - I hope that gets extended, but considering what the President wants, I'm a bit worried. |
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This. I almost lost it when I heard about the bus driver in Detroit. All of these lives and all of this suffering is easier to handle from a bit of a distance. |
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Based on the article, I think that poll was taken before the shift in public opinion really started taking hold. In Michigan at least, the extension & strengthening of the stay-at-home order less than a week ago really lit a fire under a lot of people and started cracking the consensus. I'm curious to see what the polls say once we get some that were taken more recently.
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The above poll notwithstanding, it does seem that a significant portion of the population is getting....restless...with stay-at-home.
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I do think that as this settles into another MAGA/Blue State thing, you will see more people line up with their team and the numbers will get closer to 50/50.
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...and then a few weeks later, red states will take it more seriously. |
Just checked the schedule. Games on 9/5 in Auburn, Columbia, Fayetteville, Gainesville, and Oxford. If those games happen with crowds and school starts as well for kids, late September is a new tipping point.
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I don’t trust that we will look after our most vulnerable.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/us/bo...ome/index.html I don’t trust that we will look after our most vulnerable. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/sta...241966186.html |
Might be that some good news re:kids is close, according to our leading Virologist a couple studies now with indication (not proof !) that their immune system might not only react differently to the virus but have at least some immunity or have low reproduction of viral RNA making them less likely to be big spreaders.
The spread within households is aparently lower than thought, which might point to this. Holland tested antibodies from blood donations and came up with 3% spread. Of course, blood donations generally come from a less than perfect 'spread' of the population due to rules attached and who does it, but data is data. |
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Outside of hotspots in the NE, Michigan and Louisiana, things seem to be pointing to a slowdown by the end of the month. It will be interesting to see how the governors/Trump start handling May. You may have places like Utah, Arizona and New Mexico with very little remaining impact looking to roll back the shelter in place - while places like New York and New Jersey are still in a fight with this thing. |
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But there are a lot of caveats here, the biggest one to me: tabulating of test results is barely over 50% done. |
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