500k confirmed cases in the US

How do you mean ? Personal risk ?

Got to assume they cut no corners in testing it, so with that assumption immediately. I mean, read the leaflets on medication you take and the majority will have more possibly serious side effects than a vaccine.

I had to take meds for neurological pain recently and that list had some stuff at 1/10 chance.

A retirement home 20 miles from me had to be evacuated today after 35 inhabitants and 37 Employees had tested positive over the last 2 week and they essentially ran out of employees even despite 15 volunteers ... And they have banned all visitors since mid march and employees wear masks all day (albeit the regular surgical ones). Just shows how damn impossible the Situation is for these folks ... One employees kid infects him or her and it goes downhill ...

Yesterday was projected to be the peak in Michigan. We aren't there yet, as today (207 deaths) has been almost twice the previous highs.

But even now I'm not scared to catch it because I'm worried about my health, I'm scared to be an asymptomatic carrier. So it'll be helpful to get some hard data on that before anti-gen tests trickle down to the point I'm able to get one without showing symptoms & see if I did have it in February or get it in the interim.

In other fun news, the warehouse I work at (~2500 people) had it's first "confirmed" case yesterday, and 2 more today. They are asking people to wear masks, checking temperatures on the way in & sending anyone over 100.4 home, and have put a fair amount of TSA style emphasis on social distancing or other measures, but while certain functions there are possible to do it's literally impossible to do anything in my department without being within 6 feet of someone a decent amount of time. I think the social quarantining stuff will at least extend past Memorial Day, I think it's an above 50% chance I either already had it or I will get it by then, and given the projected infection rates, my elevated risk of getting it, and even the optimistic vaccine timetable being 18 months I'm kinda just hopeful we have antigen tests by the time rules are relaxed, I test positive, and I can live what social life I'm allowed to have without worrying about infecting other people. A large percentage of this country that is at elevated risk of dying from it will be very slow to come back out of their shell, and larger percentage than we assume will jump fully back in despite that (blame Millennials all you want, but old people get lonely and want to play with their grandkids, crazy Disney people want to make their yearly trip to Disney, dumb people still wanted to go on cruises or to Florida beaches 2 weeks ago etc), but I fully assume you'll start to see things that are tailored more towards people in their 20's & 30's be some of the first things back up (and I can't wait to start hearing all the whining about how selfish people that age are when it happens.)

Local High Schools turned on stadium lights tonight at 8:20 (20:20 military time) And left them on for 20 minutes and 20 seconds. We went down to see it. Taking advantage of whatever things for the seniors.

Of course social distancing was non existent. My daughter saw a group of friends gathered together. Parents were grouped together. Idiots, just stupid. People are dumb and they complain that there wont be a prom or graduation. Well, guess what? This is the reason why. Dumb asses like you that are so selfish.

I feel like people need to relax with the social judgment. Half of our 911 calls right now are people bitching about their neighbors. Our mayor had to put out a social media post begging people to at least use the non-emergency numbers for that. It's like the moment they've lived for, the chance to fucking judge everyone. Our destiny isn't going to be altered if some kids want to hang out, or if some adults want to maintain their mental health with some responsible socializing.

And I'm not sure what positives occur, mental-health wise, with the people obsessed with what everyone else is doing.

Because we (because we all do it, myself included) cannot stop right here explains everything you said in the rest of the post, no?

I'm about to go brave the grocery store, wish me luck.

good luck. So far I have avoided that horror show.

So you're saying someone complaining about social judging did so making a bunch of socially judgey statements?

SI

Are you sure you have nothing left in the house ? Today has got to be the worst possible day, even without Corona going on you would not get me to go into that madness unless i had virtually no food. Even then i would first beg my friends and family to share or call a pizza :D

This morning I had no pizza.

But Kroger's had a killer deal:

90 count Totinos Pizza Rolls for $2 each! Those things will kill me long before any virus will.



But in all seriousness I figured a Saturday morning was the best time to go. The store wasn't that crowded. Though I am feeling like an outcast for not wearing a mask. I'd say 2/3rds of people were wearing one.

We order on-line for pickup (they bring it to the car). Not as convenient as pickup is like 3-4-5 days later but feel better than going into store right now.

Our order this afternoon won't have the bread flour or chicken we ordered. It's not too bad all things considered.

Honestly, my outside interaction is very minimal (an exercise trail, that's basically it) but I'm wearing a mask principally for that reason. It's such a small thing to do, but among its virtues is that it creates social pressure for everyone to do the small thing(s) and we need that right now.

So, sorry not sorry on behalf of the fellow shoppers. Put on a mask (or some covering) when you're out. Nothing personal, just speaking on behalf of your neighbors and friends.

"Peak" is a term getting used a bit loosely. Measuring confirmed cases, versus unmeasurable actual cases, versus deaths... the last number is obviously going to "peak" at a different time.

People transfixed on the confirmed case count are missing an obvious issue, given the continued lack of testing capacity. In MD, frex, we opened one large testing facility at the Washington football stadium, and the next few days that county leapt into the "lead" with the most cases in the state. Just a day or two ago, a new major testing facility in Baltimore opened at Pimlico racetrack, and already there's a major spike in confirmed cases in Baltimore, especially the neighborhood around the racetrack. The dumbass interpretation is that testing sites are causing a spread. The more well-reasoned view seems to be that the cases are already there, remaining unconfirmed, and the confirmed testing numbers are still a function of testing availability more than actual spread of the disease.

Sadly, if the spread itself is peaking now, or soon, it might still be weeks until the death toll itself peaks in those same areas. And our "confirmed case count" will not be accurately tracking either one.

I get that, but I was talking about projected peak deaths, per the model someone linked a while ago. Best info I've heard including from Fauci is that deaths are the last thing to really peak, and so when those start going down consistently we can have reason for optimism.

The mask thing is interesting, because they're still uncommon around here. No more than 1 in 5 I'd say are wearing them. 'Course I live in a part of the country where it's fashionable to post memes on social media about how terrible it is that we are all losing our freedoms.

My health care worker dropped off a few masks, so I was able to spend some time outside, watching the river. Was nice :)

Ok, might be different with different customs. Over here Easter Saturday is the worst along with the last day before Christmas

That's quite the ego you have to assume you speak for my neighbors (the couple that I saw today weren't wearing masks.) or my friends.

It's also bullshit to claim it's not personal and then invoke your made up feelings for my friends.

Got it, thanks. I think you totally got what I was going for there.

And if you don't like my tone on these issues, but want to stay in this thread, I'll save you a little trouble:

Front Office Football Central

Nah, I'll stay and just continue to criticize anything I think is worth criticizing.

You cant ignore moderators. ;)

weird flex, right?

(unintentional)

So you're not allowed to criticize someone for unfairly criticizing others because THAT also counts as a criticism?

All criticism is not equal. Some criticisms are fair and some aren't. It's fair to criticize someone for calling 911 on someone who isn't even violating their jurisdiction's rules, for example. It's fair to criticize someone who attacks someone else for some personal trait they can't control. Using fair criticisms to attack unjust criticisms is a pretty important thing to be able to do.

There can be differences of opinions of what's fair and what's not. We have our individual jurisdiction's rules, and then we have an infinitive number of opinions about how far beyond that the REAL moral rules are. Social pressure can be powerful. But it's never fun to be criticized for violating someone else's personal rule, especially when they use that tone of entitlement which insists that their personal rule is the only correct one and it's binding on everyone else. There is a way to be positively influential, but that takes skill and sincerity.

It's obviously a very fine line, and very subjective, but I do feel like there are folks out there that are taking things a bit too far and/or using external rage as a vent for their own anxieties (which is entirely understandable).

Like, I think it's rational to be concerned about anybody and anything that is likely to be in your orbit, but it's a bit much to call the police on folks you see out your window, across the street.

I try to control my own anxieties about other people's behavior by reminding myself that we're not trying to prevent the spread of the virus entirely, we're trying to slow the spread to the point that it doesn't overwhelm our local healthcare systems, which relaxes my expectations a little bit. That said, my attitude might be entirely different if I lived in a harder-hit area (knock on particle board).

So the british health secretary, after deciding it was needed to remind hospital staff that PPE was a "precious ressource" now felt it was a good idea to question if the thousands infected staff all really caught it while working and not elsewhere.
Yeah, figuring out if the lack of proper PPE is a terrible Problem or a slightly less terrible Problem should really be a priority right now.

And Spains Prime Minister decided on a mask obligation from Monday and on handing them out at train and bus depots and Madrid's transport Minister said they (presumably the regional government) learned of it in the Media.

In Germany our local minister can't wait 3 days to the big 'meeting' of all regional ministers (think Governours) and the national cabinet and leaked his reopening plan to the press, presumably to create public pressure.

Can't forget Turkey announcing a 48h Lockdown (whatever good that is supposed to do) in the media in the evening without clarification of what stays open, leading to hundreds trying to get into the same super markets at the same time.

Can officials not try to switch on their brains and put away their damn egos for a few months ?

Matt Hancock is halfway towards nominative determinism

He’s actually quite good at reading a scripted speech, but as soon as he is asked questions and has to speak off the cuff, he’s an absolute shitstorm

You’ve actually only half caught what he said - what you’ve quoted is accurate, but he also said that perhaps NHS staff were using possibly overusing PPE, by not using pieces long enough.

He should never be allowed to do anything that is not reading off autocue

Yeah, this is a good point, I don't have any masks, this has felt like a good spot to hop on etsy and support some folks there, but I keep forgetting. I just ordered a couple that should be here by the time of my next grocery run. My last grocery trip was over a week ago, almost no one had masks, but the conversation around them has changed a lot since then.

Not exactly where I was going but I can address that too.

Let me flesh it out a bit more. It can not be surprising that people are calling 911 on other people for not practicing for the specific act of improper social distancing in this case. We have been trending towards, encouraging and rewarding people for making similar calls against people for other acts do not even violate the jurisdiction's rules for years now. The focus of these calls has always been the REAL moral rules.Those previous 911 calls were rarely criticized or even questioned. In fact, the idea of questioning the sincerity of those calls seems to draw the strongest criticism. Those previous calls are based on the same social judgement criteria that is currently being used with social distancing. The criteria is "You are not doing it the way I think it should be done." That is why our inability to "relax with the social judgement..." in general is an explanation for everything else that you said IMO.

To be fair though, that’s always been QS. He has always been the smartest guy he knows.

In before he says he is not the smartest guy he knows.

These numbers on NYC ambulance calls for cardiac arrest skyrocket in Mid-March.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckra...d-ravages-city

It's charts like these that really make me doubt the virus was spreading in much volume before February, at least on the East coast.

gotta have a brand

Hospitals in Phoenix haven't been hit nearly as hard as the projections suggested 2-3 weeks ago. This is a good thing (and shows social distancing is working). I wore my Green Bay Packers mask my mom made for me to the store today. I saw a ton of people wearing them.

I think most people seem to get what is going on. Can you stop some high school kids from sitting on their cars and talking in a group? Probably not. But most adults seem to understand the gravity of this (atleast where I am) and I think that's the most you can expect at this point.

I don't really look at the daily numbers (anyone who's read this thread knows why), but instead look at the hospital situation. As long as they are OK, I think things are going as best as one can expect.

Day 28 of lockdown here in Manila We have 18 more days to April 30 when they plan on relaxing it. We’re creeping towards 5,000 cases soon. :/

Our stay-at-home is through end of April also. However, the restrictions are not as harsh as you guys. How's things going? Hope you and family are doing okay?

The head physician at the main Austrian Hospital for treating Covid said yesterday they stopped using the Malaria drug due to it not having any measurable clinical benefit both for symptoms and 'lung condition' and actually had a lot of patients taking a sharp turn to the worse. Of course they are less desperate but maybe that is not a bad thing when it comes to judging actual effects.
He is however cautiously optimistic as far as Remdesivir (the ebola medication) is concerned ...

For him, the main thing that helps is treating patients early and without being overstressed due to high caseload. As soon as you have to make compromises (which is way before you run out of ventilators) success ratio goes down a lot.

One thing that was interesting is they and german doctors have increasingly been using a system that lies between respirators and ventilators. Basically a high pressure respirator treatment that in the early stages of the 'downturn' (when patients start to have trouble breathing) prevents a lot of patients from having to be ventilated.

I don't believe the REAL moral rules are set by the people who decide their personal moral rules are binding on everyone. They are definitely are the loudest. That counts for something I guess. But if some guy calls 911 on someone walking their dog, no, that's not the REAL moral rule, it's just his rule. And he's actually committing a misdemeanor crime in some jurisdictions by using that means to try to enforce his rule - which is a pretty good hint that his rule is not the real one.

And I know I probably live in a different world on this than most people, but yes, using the 911 system, and police generally, to try to enforce one's own moral code is definitely something that is wrong, takes resources to combat, and is a big everyday part of the lives of the people who actually enforce the legal rules even in normal times. And I think people confuse those concepts a lot - they think someone wronged them, they put so much weight on that perceived wrong that they just kind of assume it's a police matter, they get the police involved, no law has been violated, the police leave, everybody's pissed. That dynamic is just happening a lot more now with people trying to involve the police to enforce their own ideas of what people should be doing right now. So much that our mayor posted a video to ask people to please stop.

And yes, I also can get annoyed with people who broadly judge those who aren't living in full compliance with their own particular non-binding moral code, even if they don't involve the police. THAT, I admit, is something I need to take my own advice about more often and just ignore it rather than let it annoy me. But, sometimes, rarely, it just goes to a point where I want to defend someone or myself.

Can This Virus Mutate?
 

So, this forum has a lot of smart, well-educated folks on it, so I feel like this is a good place to pose this question. What are the chances of this COVID-19 mutating over time and becoming an extinction-level event?

In my ongoing report on how stores are handling curbside pickups, we had to order cat litter from Petsmart after striking out at 2 grocery stores. They had it ready for us almost right after we placed the order. Drove up to the curb, cashier had gloves on, checked my ID, then put them in the trunk for us. Pretty easy all in all if we weren't dealing with a virus.

Virtually zero. Viruses always mutate, but that typically ends up in them getting weaker. We know there are at least two strains of COVID-19, though I haven't read up on the major differences between them. In terms of becoming an extinction-level thing though … it would need to be several orders of magnitude worse in terms of lethality. I.e., if it were as contagious as it is now and had a SARS-like death rate (around 10%, far worse than COVID), it would be horrifying but humanity would still survive it. Probably not with anything like our current way of life though.

Yeah, this is not happening, thankfully. There are thought to be actually plenty of strains but they are all virtually identical. Which is great news for vaccination btw !
Basically corona viruses do mutate but they largely don't really change their core properties, if that makes sense. "Mutating" means different things for a scientist than what is implied when you read, say, the dailymail.

This explains it decently well i thougth:

8 strains of the coronavirus are circling the globe. Here's what clues they're giving scientists.

Also, this from a US Scientist working on it:

Here’s how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

Thanks. I appreciate your well-reasoned responses. Just what I was hoping for. Stay safe and happy!

Continuing to see the consensus cracking. Family, neighbors, etc. started to really get irritated at what some of the exceptions are and aren't in our current shutdown order, but also more sentiment towards herd immunity, we can't live in paralyzed fear forever, we shouldn't give up freedom for security, I remember when it was the sick and not the healthy who wore masks, etc.

By May there's going to be a lot of demand to open things back up whether we're ready for it or not. And I still fear what happens in the fall.

Was always going to be tough getting people to consider not themselves or even the person they meet but a random person that gets really sick 4 weeks and 4 transmissions later. It's tough to explain to young(ish) healthy people how them meeting up for a barbecue could result in someone dying none of them knows or ever meets.
Personally i think this aspect is not getting enough attention in media and politicians talking.

Putting aside the early zig zag course that will have ended up doubling the death total (they really had all the time to avoid these Italy/Spain numbers) I actually do like the 'workaround' the UK is using now, making this about protecting the NHS and it's doctors, nurses and other staff from both direct harm and getting overwhelmed.

Personally i find myself being most struck by what is happening in Retirement facilities where folks are essentially isolated almost entirely now* and still ultimately at the mercy of what happens outside.
No matter how badly you try to keep it out ,more infected young people will always mean more cases in retirement homes, too. Only takes one staff member infected and ultimately result in half the people infected a week later and many, many deaths 2 weeks later.

* Which comes with its own cruelty.

Trump retweeted someone saying it was time to fire Fauci.

What a fucking coward. He's incapable of any normal human relationship.

Who could have possibly predicted that?

On the fun side we're also up to 6 confirmed cases at my warehouse.

In both cases these facts on the ground seem very predictablee.

My point wasn't that it was a surprise, but that it is myopic and wrong. The striking thing about all of this is that there's never a viable way to deal with the consequences. The people I'm talking about aren't willing to say we should let people of a certain age or with strokes etc. just die without medical treatment, there's all sorts of engaging in straw men vis a vis the restrictions, and so on. None of them can cite a single public health expert who thinks it makes sense to open back up right now. All of which leads me to conclude it's based on emotion not logic - people are mad at the situation and lashing out at the easiest target, without considering the consequences fully.