My guess is the final bill comes in closer to 2, but there's a deal to be had if ManSinema want one.

I'm glad Biden is optimistic. The real question is what will the Progressive give up?

Progressives rallied behind Biden's agenda. Now he’s gotta sell them on a compromise. - POLITICO

Progressives have been signaling they are willing to negotiate for days. Voting for the BIF in the Sente shows they aren't the ones holding a deal up.

Yeah, as far as I can tell people have been asking Manchin and Sinema what they would accept and they haven't responded with anything.

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Sounds like Manchin is negotiating now, but Sinema went back to AZ for a high-dollar fundraiser and released a letter blaming progressives for holding up Biden's agenda.

I have no idea what she wants.

Attention.

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As in being stalked in a restroom.

Another Biden statement on the range. Have to assume he's gotten these nos from Manchin & Sinema.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/04/polit...age/index.html

They were of course clutching their pearls about this on Fox News yesterday and the expert guest actually said “ in America we don’t hunt down our elected officials” without so much as a hint of irony.

Sometimes you get what you want and you wish you hadn't.

I love the trillion dollar coin thing even though it sounds like the prologue of a Tom Clancy novel where bad shit will immediately go down.

Or a new Keifer Sutherland show called "Fed Up", where he must track down who stole the trillion dollar coin.

Who would you want to see star in a movie about a bumbling Treasury employee who accidentally loses The Coin on the way to depositing it at the Fed and needs to find it before anyone realizes it’s missing?

— poorly hidden account (@poorlyhidden) October 5, 2021

Just hold a vote. If Sinema and Manchin and anyone else want to blow things up, that's fine. Stop giving cover to people for unpopular votes.

My tv show idea would definitely be Keifer, but if it's a movie, then this has got to be Nic Cage.

It would be Jake Peralta's favorite movie ever.

I'm thinking Don Cheadle. He could hit the humor, but it wouldn't become a slapstick farce.

Alright, a little breathing room on debt ceiling. Now let's get that $1.2+$3.5 done.

538 has Biden approval at 44%. Plenty of time to recover but the deal needs to get done somehow.

So is anyone else following what's going on with the Idaho Lt Governor?

Yes, apparently her babysitter fell asleep and she broke into the adult room and signed executive orders.......Seriously, she is a piece of work and another thing to thank Trump for as Bat shit crazy in public office is now chic.

It’s just a game to them.

Yeah, I was reading about it today. Let me know if I got this right:
Idaho Lt. Gov. battles Governor again on COVID executive orders | Boise State Public Radio

Idaho governor Brad Little is out of state doing a conservative governor border stunt and photo-op in Texas (you know, what with Idaho sharing that US-Mexico border)

The state’s Lieutenant Governor is Janice McGeachin, far right nut job, who has already declared she’s running for governor next year.
While he’s out of the state, she does this:

Today, as Acting Governor, I fixed Gov. Little’s Executive Order on "vaccine passports" to make sure that K-12 schools and universities cannot require vaccinations OR require mandatory testing. I will continue to fight for your individual Liberty! #idpol pic.twitter.com/Jz87jfZaWc
— Janice McGeachin (@JaniceMcGeachin) October 5, 2021

His response:

I will be rescinding and reversing any actions taken by the Lt. Governor when I return. pic.twitter.com/iBuQqX1R5i
— Brad Little (@GovernorLittle) October 5, 2021

Not only did the little authoritarian try to do the stupid no-testing or vaccines, but she apparently also tried to deploy the Idaho national guard to the border.

"The Associated Press reported Major General Michael Marshak rebuffed McGeachin’s request, reminding her the guard was not a law enforcement agency."

So she’s trying to take the Governor’s job via election or, attempting to, by loophole. Meanwhile, looking over her shoulder:

In a statement, Idaho House Speaker Scott Bedke called McGeachin’s actions, "overreach that does not represent Idaho and Idahoans." Bedke, who announced he’s running for Lt. Governor in 2022, said GOP leadership is working through a return to session to deny recent vaccination mandates from the Biden administration. His statement endorsed draft legislation this week from the interim Joint Committee on Federalism which would make it illegal for state, county or local authorities to cooperate with a federal vaccine requirement. "What comes next will be determined soon by the Legislative Branch and not be left to the Lt. Governor to dictate," Bedke wrote in a statement email Tuesday.

SI

She does this every time he leaves town.

This is why many Idaho Democrats register Republican to vote for people like Little and Butch Otter in closed Republican primaries rather than vote in their own primaries.

The more moderate Idaho Republicans tend to win state-wide elections by landslides, but, you just don't know anymore....

Sounds kind of like something that Greg from Succession would do.

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As I understand it

Debt limit coming up

Dems want GOP to vote with them to raise it

GOP says no (normal for out-of-power party)

Dems say OK, we will all vote for it

GOP says, no you have to do it through reconciliation (which would be more cumbersome for Dems). GOP filibusters debt limit bill.

Dems stand firm and say we will own this, but we want it at 50 votes for a regular bill. We aren't doing reconciliation.

McConnell realizes that the three endgames for his position are (1) default; (2) weaken filibuster by making carve out; (3) GOP cave at last minute.

McConnell realizes that all three of those suck, so he folds his 2/7 offsuit pre-flop and tells the Dems that they still have to vote for it, but they can do it at 50

Now some GOP members are forcing a filibuster, so McConnell is scrambling to get 10 GOP Senators to help break the filibuster.

If the GOP radicals feel the need to pressure Mitch McConnell for being too bipartisan, then they really aren't reading the room.

I don't particularly care if a handful of senators are nostalgic and want to preserve the filibuster out of a sense of tradition or whatever, but the "it's a slippery slope" argument and being afraid of what happens the next time they are the minority party just seems silly and ignorant for the Democrats.

Does anyone actually believe that a Mitch McConnell (who now seems like one of the more principled among Republican senators due to how far out of whack everything else has gotten) led majority would not carve out exceptions for the filibuster if the Democrats start using it on stupid stuff like setting the debt limit (and note I'm not calling being responsible with the debt stupid, but the debt limit is all about what has already been spent rather than future spending)? If the Democrats haven't learned the playbook from the way the Supreme Court has played out over the past few years, they really don't belong in the same arena as McConnell.

Not sure if this anecdote belongs in this thread or another but oh well:

My coworker was asked "Why do you have life insurance?"

His response was "Because I can't afford health insurance"

:eek:

There's been a lot of Taiwan-China-US in the news.

Nationalism is strong in China. HK, the Spratleys etc. and now somewhat threatening display of power (e.g. military flights). I'm sure they are feeling defensive and reacting to the US. But I wouldn't put an invasion beyond Xi and I wouldn't trust US to protect Taiwan other than selling weaponry and leading global condemnation.

If I was Xi, I'd play the long game and get a bunch of China sympathizers into Taiwanese politics & military (bribe, cajole etc. whatever). I don't see Taiwan remaining independent into next century with China's emergence (and they are so damn close). It'll happen militarily or politically one day.

I've never visited Taiwan but do remember a Zimmern (or was it Bourdain) episode on "stinky tofu" and thinking I have to try it. May have to visit soon.

I'd very much like to visit Taiwan in the next few years - CPBL helped get me through some of the early days of the pandemic. A Chinese takeover seems inevitable and I'd like to go see the country before that.

SI

IMO Politico is prematurely alarmist. Biden's got a lot of issues with infighting, the 1.2+3.5 bills in limbo, and economy/covid/inflation are somewhat intertwined. And he pretty much owns all of these.

But assume we get some of the 1.2+3.5 and we learn to live with covid (e.g. acceptable level of increased deaths), I have faith his polls will rebound.

Because if they don't, God help us with Trump waiting in the wings.

‘The president’s decline is alarming’: Biden trapped in coronavirus malaise - POLITICO

Politico knows better than to use a single poll, but that's what helps sell the narrative. The CBS poll this weekend has Biden at 50/50.

It's not necessary to use one poll to sell the narrative. 538 has Biden down as well:

June 1 - 53.7
July 1 - 52.0
August 1 - 51.5
September 1 - 46.7
October 1 - 45.0
Today - 44.6

One can debate why it's happened and how much of it's permanent, but this is a real thing that has occurred.

I do think it's super-premature to worry about Trump in 2024 though. Biden's numbers are still better Trump's were, and that's before you take into account the dive that happened in January. It's just barely late enough to start to begin being concerned about the midterms.

It really is amazing considering it is the right that is keeping us in this pandemic. Amazing there are independents who cant see that.

Some people see and think in black and white.

Others see and think black, white and grey. Might be (lean) lighter or darker grey, but still grey.

It's down, but it's only down 15 if you look at the single worst poll. A couple of recent polls show a bit of a recovery, but if we are still dealing with COVID next year it will be a bloodbath.

I think it's still worth discussing that polls were practically proven worthless in the past couple years, but we've gone back to taking them at face value.

I would call that a pretty severe over-reaction. Polls are definitely less trustworthy than they used to be, but they are nowhere near useless. They're still right far more often than they are wrong.

Edit: It's definitely worth remembering, and a good point to bring up, that they are less 'the way things are' and more 'our best indicator' these days. But I'd still say they are way, way more reliable than 'this must be what people think, how could they think anything else', or any other method I'm aware of to judge the public's views on most matters.

Re: the independents, it's always been the case that people blame people in charge for national conditions. Sometimes that's justified, and sometimes it isn't, but as a nation there's a long tradition of blaming & rewarding politicians for results/situations, not reasoned assessments of their actions or inactions.

If you're going to sell out your country, at least do it for big $. I wonder what goes through the head of husband-wife when they do this. In this case, don't think it was for some communist/socialist ideal but just spending money.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/10/polit...ion/index.html

Story is a little short on details. If this was on purpose with ill intent, absolutely fire and prosecute them. They were just fired so wonder if this was incompetence, mistake etc. I do want the additional details.

Two Georgia workers fired after being accused of shredding voting applications | Fox News

This feels like the couple was desperate for $20,000. Maybe a $20,000 gambling debt that needed to be paid pronto or else! This is especially strange as it is being reported that the couple made the first move.

Hmmm...strange how these two workers did something so dumb in a very easy to catch manner just as the state is trying to find ways to take over the election apparatus of the most democratic and minority populated County. That is not suspicious at all.

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As we know and you've pointed out repeatedly in many different threads polls don't reflect the reality on the ground of what's going on.

Especially since they're unidentified and no other county. If I didn't know any better, in a county that leans heavily blue, this seems like a great opportunity to both shred a bunch of Democratic ballots /and/ help the GOP elections apparatus of the state take over.

SI

I dunno - it seems like it's a reasonable snapshot of what's going on right now within some error bars. But there are so many variables in play between now and Election Day that it's not going to be a great predictor of those outcomes.

SI

I find it amazing that this article is on FOX News and they don't mention until the very last line they don't know what voters were affected, but I am sure their readers with read all the way until the end and not draw any conclusions from just the headline.

It was 20k per file. 5 million total for all.

Okay, sorry didn't see that in the link. But that would tempt many to be a Benedict Arnold.

Bring on that sweet sweet nullification crisis!

"they are, after all, called opinions"

You should be required to list the law school you attended when writing shit like that. Let everyone point and laugh at them.

Also, fuck paying federal taxes, those were just "opinions" by the court that I had to pay them.

Does this mean states can ban guns now? Maybe the state has a different interpretation of the constitution.

This is exactly the kind of thing that legislators in my state pay outside counsel $300/hour to argue because the $50/hour state attorneys won't. Then the outside counsel lose the case and the state agency gets threatened with defunding, out of spite. And in fact, lots of far-right business people run for state legislature just so they can funnel this type of legal work through the far-right attorneys they're connected to, even though they know they won't win.

Boy does it make them mad when they're told their position is unconstitutional and won't be pursued by state attorneys. They're not used to hearing that from private attorneys who will argue anything for the right price. There is an idea, obviously not subscribed to everywhere, that state attorneys should be held to a higher ethical standard because they're not simply working for a client for political interests, but for the state as a whole. Of course even when they spend 6X on private counsel on a losing case, it's still taxpayer money, they just have a wider net to cast to find willing counsel. The idea that regular-old salaried state attorneys make these kind of arguments is disturbing.