Article essentially says CDC will set some guidelines but states can deviate if they want to.

Apparently they haven't quick worked out the order after the initial health care workers and residents of nursing homes. TBH, I'm not sure I believe that, you would think they have the order figured out by now.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/01/healt...ing/index.html

China is going to be a vaccine supplier to many developing countries. The lack of domestic coronavirus cases allows them to help out other countries in need. A "health" silk road initiative.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/01/asia/...hnk/index.html

However, they haven't announced any efficacy %. This may be they just aren't as far along as the US-European vaccines, or it may not be as effective and they want to hide that info. Seems to me the WHO would ask for transparency (at the appropriate time).


I would certainly take a US-European vaccine over a Chinese vaccines. But if I didn't have a choice, I would wait a month or two and take the Chinese vaccine.

And we have to quarantine again. One of the docs my wife supervised this AM started to feel bad around lunch and got a positive rapid test. Technically only my wife has to quarantine, but my work said I should also stay away. And the doctor's daughter is my daughter's best friend at school and likely hung out at school today. So fun times all around.

CNN kinda mixes up two different things, one being chines companies offering their vaccines to developing countries and the other being COVAX (which Trumpistan unsurprisingly did not join)

COVAX isn't about donating vaccine doses, but money to use to buy available doses as they become available and then distribute evenly. Richer countries than pay for those, poorer ones are subsidized. A sorta 'buyers collective'.

It was always inevitable that the EU and US make seperate deals and then take the first available vaccines. As did Canada, who already said they will donate surplus doses, while Germany among others supports it financially but waive their allotment due to havin enough via Pfizer/Moderna.
But this way at least the 2nd crop will be distributed evenly. And considering 1 of 2 frontrunners is very problematic to deliver and store in poorer regions, it's a good thing that option No3 (Astrazeneca) is both easier to store and has already agreed to sell at cheap rates (2,50 per dose) and a couple more are on track for a mid 2021 rollout iirc.

From what I can tell, yesterday looks like the highest single day for deaths in the US since Covid began. ~2800-+3000 depending on where you look.

And by the highest number of people in hospital at any time so far, and the number in intensive care is also at an all time high...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55170329

These are iPad stations being prepared for virtual ICU end of life visits by a palliative care doc I know. Jesus. pic.twitter.com/lIgbg0FhaL

— i cant drive, n95 (@roto_tudor) December 3, 2020

dola:

Stay safe, y'all.

Absolutely heartbreaking.

And this job must be pretty sucky also.

Nurse sets up virtual visit for COVID-19 patient: video

The vote for health care workers and nursing home patients was not unanimous. Article below provided some insight. I actually did not know the vaccines have not been tested (or at least a good sample) of the "frail elderly".

I guess my question is, why hasn't it been tested? I have to believe there would be some that will volunteer?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/04/healt...ion/index.html

Rampant speculation: I'm guessing the drug manufacturers didn't want to get too many old patients in the trial in the event that they died or had complications so as to slow down vaccine testing and production.

SI

I would think consent could be a problem as well.

Went to this Costco this morning. Saw the greeter and also an armed policeman at the front entrance.

Got tested Thursday, got a positive result today. My oldest and youngest sons were both positive as well. The Mrs is assumed positive, her symptoms are identical to mine, and the middle son currently has no symptoms, despite being exposed probably a thousand times by now.

Sorry to hear that. Speedy recovery to everyone.

Take care Pilot.

Good luck PM

Best wishes to you & family.

Praying for you and your family, Pilotman.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

I just saw that Karl Anthony Towns has lost seven family members to COVID including his other and uncle.

We went to pickup at REI and decided to drop by a favorite restaurant. We drove there, went in to order, and waited out side.

I spoke with the proprietor and asked he was doing. He said pretty bad. I asked if carryout business was pretty good and he said they did get a lot of orders but the 3rd party online ordering systems took 30% of the bill so he wasn't making money.

Not sure if I misunderstood but the 30% sounds really high to me.

The husband of my wife's friend had to get COVID tested yesterday because a coworker on his construction site tested positive on Friday. My wife backed out of plans to go over to their house yesterday, but another friend that's already had COVID decided to go anyway. The (flawed) thinking was that since she's already had COVID she's safe. Oh btw she works the front desk at one of the departments in the hospital I work at and her boss told her she has to stay home pending his test results and will have to quarantine for 2 weeks if his test is positive. She's throwing a fit because she's out of vacation and sick leave and doesn't think it's fair since she's already had it.

My wife is trying to explain to the friend of hers how stupid it was to have her over and how making her quarantine in the event of a positive test is 100% the correct decision. Her friend will not acknowledge that it was a stupid decision on their part and thinks the quarantine would be ridiculous.

This is 2 days after my wife and I had an argument over her going over to her house to begin with because I didn't think they took COVID very seriously. So on top of their stupidity my wife is incredibly frustrated with the timing of this.

COVID continues to highlight the gaps in critical thinking among different people and the general selfishness of others.

Very sorry to hear that PM.. :( Thinking of your family and hoping for a quick and full recovery

Ugh, sorry PM. Get better soon!

Too many people seem to think it's a one and done thing even though we have no evidence of this. It seems just as likely that this will be a flu like thing where we will have to get a shot every year.

My wife has been telling her we still don't know much about how COVID spreads, how immunity works, how different strains affect immunity, ect. It's going nowhere.

It’s definitely not one and done - the cyclist Fernando Gaviria has had it twice for one.

Yeah, I'm delaying telling my parents we'll come down the day after Christmas when my sisters and their kids are there, but it has to be outside and everyone keep to their family. Otherwise they can just come up whenever and we'll do Christmas on the porch.

I've been sick twice in the past 4 weeks, each time with different symptoms that mirror COVID symptoms. Both times I've tested negative and recuperated fine. My wife is quarantined in another room because she's a close contact at her work. Feeling sick is bad enough, waiting for a test for a potentially deadly disease to come back negative makes it even worse. I'm not in the mood to deal with that if I can avoid it. And we haven't told them my wife is getting a pacemaker the first week of January, so her getting COVID could be a disaster.

And my family is one who takes COVID seriously, but don't seem to grasp why it matters with family, as though family has some extra protective layer.

So I just sent the text and it's going about as well as I expected.

It actually doesn't :) Just because you can't know for a fact if it's A or B does not mean there aren't different propabilities for both options. And right now pretty much all of the Data from the lab seems to point towards decently long immunity from both natural infection and looked at vaccines for the vast majority of people. Of course there's no 100% guarantee and no one can put an exact timeframe on things, but comparing data over the last X months experts seem reasonably confident.

And none of the specific reasons why flu shots are anually apply to SarsCov2/these vaccines (the flu is in essence caused by multiple viruses where every year different ones are most prevalent and they all change at a pretty good clip, whereas SarsCov2 changes muuuuuch less frequently or severely and is most definitely the single cause for Covid19).
It's a similar situation to when people said it was just as likely a vaccine would take years or never happen. There was a chance for that, but the available data made at least a decently effective vaccine decently soon more likely than not. (Often people then pointed towards HIV, but here again the issues for an HIV vaccine are very specific, not least of which is the fact the body can't fight the infection so telling it how to do so is rather more complicated ...)

It's prudent to stay vigilant and exercise caution (especially since there are always exceptions), but overall one can be optimistic for the big picture in this instance.

With vaccines rolling out I'd love more info in this vein... I've heard of different Covid-19 strains, but it still seems very specific from a disease fighting standpoint compared to "the flu" or "the cold". F.e. did Gaviria get different strains? Did he just get a false positive like Saban?

I don't think the other coronavirii ever mutated to the point they risked becoming an annual issue, why would this be the exception?

Looking at worldometers and it showed 173K new infections on Sat (so prob undercounted) with 1,076 deaths.

CA is #1 with 28K new infections. Next is TX at #2 with 9.4K, then FL 8.4K, NY 8.1K, PA 7.7K

(Good news for GA at #28 with "only" 2K).

WTF happened in CA?

I've seen this as well. It's insane. Just because it's family doesn't mean they are telling the 100% truth about how careful they are, but folks seem to think oh they won't lie. Or it'll be ok for some reason. Yeah people miss their family, but these sort of excuses are just masking selfishness.

I don't think any of them were as widespread either though were they?

I'm in between the two camps on this. I don't think you go from this being a global pandemic to disappearing or anything close to that next year, but I also don't think you necessarily have it be as ubiquitous as the flu in the future either. I think it'll be around with reduced effect for at least a couple of years simply due to how much of it is out there, some people can't or won't get vaccinated, etc.

The common cold Coronavirii (that just looks weird ...) actually are sth you can presumably catch often (though it's not exactly been intenively studied and proven on a population level), though not due to mutations, but SARS and MERS not. (That's sth lab work can tell you pretty definitely). And this one is definitely very much closer to the latter group than the former in terms of it's RNA.

At some point one has to accept that there are rules to this but that every rule has exceptions. Just like vaccines or medication not always doing the job they usually-almost always do, the same goes for the immune system. Just because reinfections happen once in a blue moon it does not at all mean that it will happen a lot or that immunity is fleeting. Only means it can happen, same as it can happen with pretty much everything else.

There are plenty of instances btw where the vaccine gives better immunity than the infection. Like the Tetanus shot, the HiB virus, Streptococcus pneumoniae (the 'other' big cause for pneumonia deaths prior to covid), HPV Virus (causing cervical cancer) and Varicella (Chickenpox/Shingles).

And in general, the advantage of a vaccine is that it is designed to create a certain 'baseline' response with lot less randomness. The flu vaccine really is a major outlier in terms of it's lack of effectiveness and longevity among vaccines on the market (plenty more don't get to the market because they aren't effective enough). It really is a flu-problem, not a vaccine-problem.

Toward superhuman SARS-CoV-2 immunity? | Nature Medicine

My wife tested positive; I assume I am as well.

This happened on my birthday and four days before we were to depart to Disney.

My mother is livid that we are being consumed by "fear" by not partaking.

So they are down there (my daughter and her girlfriend are in their 20s tested positive about 2 weeks ago and bolted when we told them the result, my mom and dad, and my brother, sister in law and their two girls), but we're the bad guys for not coming along.

The worst day was with multiple aches and pains, terrible headache, dry cough, but then I would get a runny nose and post nasal drip. Dizziness and lethargy.

But we would've been fine in Disney:banghead:

Insult to injury, they left us the family dog to watch, I had to walk him in heavy downpours, wind and freezing temperatures. Great for my condition.

My oldest son (8) is fine, no symptoms. The youngest (4) had a fever and was down for about 2 days before bouncing back.

My wife is still tired (wears a mask indoors) and still can't smell or taste.

All in all, shitty and then we'll have the tension of Christmas right down the corner.

Fun times.

Ugh, that sucks Qwikshot

Sorry you are feeling that way.

Ditto.

Sorry Qwik and PM - keeping you guys in my thoughts.

A few weeks ago (about two weeks before Thanksgiving), Jenn and I decided to pull back from my family. My sister, brother, and father all work in the car business, and cannot work remotely, so they have some exposure risk every day. Not only that, sister and brother had made some...questionable social distancing decisions prior to us pulling back. There has been some difficult discussions - particularly with my brother - about our decision to stay away, especially since the remainder of them are still getting together.

Thursday, one of my dad's sales managers tested positive for COVID, the same day his work had a mini "Holiday Party" indoors at the dealership. They were supposedly all masked up, but there was food, so questionable how effective the masks were.

My dad found out about the positive test for his coworker yesterday; not sure when, but he will be tested this week. He's healthy as an ox, but he is overweight and smokes. I'm honestly more concerned for my mother, who has skin cancer and various other chronic medical maladies. I can't imagine there is any way they could quarantine my dad within the same house, so if he's gotten it...

I'm going to have to see if I can track it down, but I was reading something online from an immunologist who mentioned studies are showing COVID immunity after infection is extremely variable, but averages 70-90 days, with an expected high-end immunity of up to 1-2 years (based upon antibody count decay, I think? No idea how they got that kind of info).

That sucks. As someone who got a virus before our last day at disney 2 years ago, trudging across a park to meet my wife and kid for dinner was a nightmare. I felt like a zombie getting from bed to the other side of epcot. They were a little upset at first, but by the end of the day had a blast since after seeing how rough dinner was for me.

The 8 hour ride home was great.

Man Qwik, sorry to hear members of your family are sick and angry at how other members of your family are reacting to it. :( Hope you all get a complete recovery and the rest of your family finds their compassion again.

Yeah, my mother laid on the guilt. I think I posted in the Cancer Sucks thread that my father has had his cancer return, so they paid for everyone to go to Disney.

So she was constantly reminding me that this could be his last trip. He seems healthy all things considered. So we were caught with being exposed, becoming sick and potentially exposing everyone on the trip down, or being cowards for not going.

I will tell you this much, I'm glad we stayed home. Yes the illness sucked, but we've been able to collect our thoughts and just breathe (though it hurt for four days doing so).

My sons are 4 and 8, they really don't understand the concept of Disney, so they don't know what they are missing.

I tried to explain to my mom we would help offset any lost costs, they went anyway. We felt terrible but it was the right call.

She was mad at me for downplaying the trip, but she's downplaying the risks. I knew I was going to get sick once my wife was confirmed on exposure. Plus who knows how we would've affected the family once down in Florida. It could've been a nightmare.

I tried explaining to her that the boys loved their Pop Pop and Nona, and that's what is important, not the trip to Disney which may be a fuzzy memory in a few years. I would hate they missed out on the trip, but I would hate more if my family got really sick because we ignored the precautions.

I'm not mad but disappointed in my oldest, she and her girlfriend waitress and they brought it in the house. They didn't take the precautions seriously, knowing how big this trip was. They got sick and we cared for them, but when we found out about this exposure they left us on our own to handle it (I get it, they're teens and they didn't want to get sick again or expose my parents to the virus); they wanted to go to Disney.

It's just a raw deal. We are doing are best for the boys who are excited for Christmas, trying to decorate when we feel okay.

The sad part is my wife's company and my company, and our friends have all been supportive.

It's my mother who's been mad and upset over our decision; my father all things considered took it well and accepted it - though I'm sure when he returns I may get a lecture.

Remember, I'm a 45 year old guy...but it is what it is.

I try to keep the peace, and truthfully I am glad of the decision my wife and I made on this.

On the other side of this, my wife and I have talked about how strongly we don't want the guilt of potentially being the ones that, you know, kill our parents. That's a very real fear for us.

SI

This. I'm in a position where this might be my Mom's last holiday season, but I certainly don't want to do anything to ensure she doesn't make it to 2021.

It really is insane how our parents look at this. We have stayed in contact with my wifes parents. They have been pretty serious about it. she lets my 7 year old come over there and hang out all the time, they only live about 3 minutes away. She was there the other day and found out she let one of my daughters friends come over an play inside all day. Come to find out today same friends parents went to a dinner party with 5 couples the other night. My MIL is super high risk having had a heart transplant 11 years ago.

My father is 90 and has already told my sister she isn't welcome there on Xmas. She works and goes to bars, as does her live in boyfriend, 2 sons, and a guy who rents a room from her. We are welcome since we have taken things far more seriously. My sister already resents me and my wife, I am there favorite, blah blah blah, so you can imagine how this will go.

There's a lot of weird cognitive dissonance throughout this and my wife and I were talking about this again at lunch today using Qwik's post at a jumping off point.

We had my parents over for Thanksgiving. It was in the 70s and lightly breezy so it was gorgeous and we just all sat in the backyard (and went for walks, etc). We were masked the whole time except while eating and we sat about 10 feet apart. In talking to them, you could just hear the regret in their voice about things they're missing this year as they're in their 70s and feel they only have a few good years left to do things like travel, grow up with grandkids, etc.

I was talking to my Aunt and Uncle last night and they're in their 70s and we were talking about our virtual Christmas plans (gift exchange, everyone talking on Facebook Messenger for Christmas eve, etc) and you could hear that same sentiment in their voice: they talked about how they've cancelled 6 trips (between the start of COVID and the beginning of next year). My uncle just had a heart attack last year and it re-reminded them how much they want to do in the time they have left. And let's not even talk about my Grandmother who is about to turn 97 and has been in a locked down home for months. While my parents are saying "they may only have a few years left", for her it's more certain.

A couple of months ago, my parents and my aunt and uncle met up at some cabin in the back woods in Arkansas (my parents are in the Houston area and they're in Chicago area so it was about halfway) for about a week. There's some travel risk in getting there and I wouldn't be at all comfortable sleeping in a hotel but maybe in a cabin for a few days I'd be able to pack away my fear long enough to enjoy it. My parents were like "being shut-ins at our age isn't good for our mental health" - it's part rationalization, but part true. I really get that one - it's about as safe a trip as you can do right now.

My aunt and uncle were talking about how they were going to isolate for two weeks and the family of one of my cousins was going to do the same. That way my aunt and uncle can visit with them and watch the grandkids for a week over winter break. This all makes sense to me.

My parents have talked about the same thing. There's one risk they can't get around, though, as my mom had to go to the doctor's office every week for treatment. Again, I get that one. Frankly, it elevates their risk profile well above ours as it's not just going somewhere, but it's going to a doctor's office during a pandemic. But it's necessary.

They want to sound like that's their only risks and we almost consider letting the grandkid stay with them because we'd love a break for the first time in nearly a year. However, then they'll let little stories slip out about how they'll go into Kroger because the curbside order didn't have anything or how they went into Target because they didn't want to buy something online on Amazon. And it just makes me mad. They try to guilt us but then don't hold up their end of the bargain and, frankly, at this point, can't be trusted.

Personally, we've been overly restrictive both because we can and because we feel it's our "duty" to. We both work from home, we're homeschooling a kindergartner (words I never thought I'd utter a year ago- I mean, we've had him in daycare since 5 months). That guy who works in Kroger to pay his rent doesn't need me coming in there to spread germs - he can just drop the bag in my trunk and we're all safer that way. It's inconvenient but he still gets paid and I still get my groceries (even if I don't get all of them, don't get great produce/meat, and, frankly it takes as long on the app as it does for me to go in-store and do it - that's the "COVID tax" that we pay to try and get through this pandemic faster).

There are three factors where the equations are totally different between the Gen X/Oregon Trail/Millennials that make up the vast majority of this board and the Boomers:
1) For instance, with what we were talking about above: I don't want the guilt of killing family members. It's a lot more likely that I kill my parents if I give them COVID than they would kill me by giving me COVID.
2) The other big fear that is disproportionately on our side is long term effects. At 75, I wonder if they're just like "what's one more long term malady" whereas in my 40s, my wife and I are like "I don't want something for the next 50 years".
3) Finally, there's the aforementioned time left. Rightly or wrongly, we think we have a lot more time left so the little bits of time are less "precious" to us.

I kindof get those mentally but maybe not emotionally. Again, I get why you would risk it to go on that trip or see those family members for a long period of time. What I don't think I'll ever get, even when they're about to pull the plug on me, is why someone would take those same risks to hit up Kroger.

SI

This is the non-political thread, so I won't say much. But I am happy that the new administration is vaccine focused and not herd immunity focused.

I think that, as a matter of science, we should prioritize vaccines.

And I am probably less chauvinistic than most others on here. But even I think that the American President should have a mild preference for Americans over foreign nationals in matters like this. So that will be a nice change, too.

I thought we gave up on the idea of 2 seperate threads?

And yeah, from what I've read, we've secured enough vaccines for 100 million people so far between Pfizer and Moderna. It really doesn't need to be said, but that's not enough.

Maybe we did. I kind of checked out for a while.

We can give up on the pretense as there are no longer 2 separate threads. It's a farce and the pandemic is inherently political in some aspects.

SI

IIRC Ben merged the Coronavirus Political thread into the Trump thread. It was just Trump bashing anyway.

I vote we keep this thread non-political.

Definitely not the consensus i am seeing recently. Might have been early on when many studies where looking at the shortterm antibodies. ? There's essentially 3 types, two of which are decreasing relatively shortly, one (IgG) longer but not Infinite. But none of that is surprising and later studies showed that IgG antibodies stabilise at a low but aparently perfevtly sufficient level showing reactivity in the lab and essentially no reinfections in health care setting studies (easy to monitor) even with decent levels of general infections now and in the spring.
One of the biggest studies done on the general public is this from Mount Sinai hospital in New York, 30k people overwhelmingly showing robust neutralizing Response after an average of 5 months with data in line with the first SARS and MERS, where lab response hints very strongly at immunity even now after a lot of years.

Robust neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 infection persist for months | Science

Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 are associated with protection against reinfection | medRxiv

(This the healthcare one)

There's also B and T Cell immunity, which is even more difficult to measure but looks very promising when done.

I see Republicans are hard at work positioning themselves for a time when there is no incentive whatsoever to Trump up things re: Vaccine.
Today invited a anti-vaxx personality (+ HIV Denialist + Climate Change denialist + Darwinism denialist + anti Public Health + a whole slew of other positions in that vein) to a hearing.
(Yes, the association she represents is exactly like that).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...67579.html?amp

Again, i am pretty sure Trump will start on that at some point as well undermining things.

Disagree, this is the way it is because of political stupidity.

My mother is practically demanding we ignore precautions; she really doesn't care if she gets it.

As for my father, I guess depending on how severe his cancer is, he figures he's rolling the dice no matter what.

Yet they cannot fathom that if one of my kids actually give it to them and they die how they would process that they were at fault (my kids not my parents). It's so selfish and stupid. So we miss a Thanksgiving or Christmas, is it really that big of a deal, over being isolated in a hospital and dying alone gasping for air?

Duly noted

Except, of course, the response to the pandemic and things like DeSantis sending goons down to harangue his own former state COVID officials are going to be somewhat political but definitely belong here.

Never mind that Trump is still doing his full blown "election was stolen" tour so any COVID news in the Trump thread gets buried.

So, like adults, we'll try to put stuff where it best fits even if there's a risk of whining to the moderator.

SI

"The Thread We Talk About Republicans That Do Shitty Things."


/notes original also omits "where"

Same point. Once we get political in this thread, it will inevitably turn Trump bashing (tell me if you really believe otherwise), and helpful COVID news, articles, personal experiences etc. gets buried.

Honestly, the root cause of the disasterous response is Trump. Even your example of DeSantis is Trump based as he has enabled or DeSantis has felt empowered to do it.

Of course, that example matters for non-political reasons as well as political - Florida's fraudulent numbers matter in terms of how safe is it in Florida right now.

SI

It's FOFC - we're not getting that many posts, and we don't even seem to have personal disagreements about political topics. The only time we have a problem is when some esoteric religion argument breaks out, just avoid that stuff & we'll be fine with a catch all thread. IMHO

Found it! And I mis-read it completely; the immunologist implied that data shows people who get it twice get it fairly quickly, with an average so far of 70-ish days between first negative test after the first infection and second positive test. Here's the article, which does imply that the B and T cell immunity looks promising and much more long-term:

More people are getting COVID-19 twice, suggesting immunity wanes quickly in some | Science | AAAS

Er ... "don't even seem to have personal disagreements about political topics"?

Honestly, we must not be reading the same thing. Go to Trump thread and do search for "racist/racism". My swag is 60-70% political disagreements end up with that accusation.

Yes, I don't think the personal disagreements are about political topics. The racism accusations fly like anywhere on the internet, but they pass or are shouted down & the personal ones end up being about religion or people being pedantic with language. No one here is actually arguing Trump won...

I don't disagree there are "personal ones ... about religion" (and think SCOTUS discussion was fairly mild) in the Trump thread but there are plenty that deal with political/Trump "policies" including the Wall, Immigration, Muslim entrance restrictions, maybe BLM (maybe not in Trump thread because it had its own thread), tax cuts and "pulling one self up by their own bootstraps", and generally discussions trying to look at "both" sides of a discussion etc.


True.

Bottom line. If you don't think the Trump thread contains "personal disagreements about political topics" (and a lot of it), I don't know how to convince you otherwise and we'll agree to disagree.

Kudos to the first and second ones. Looking forward to my turn eta 2Q.

I read an article somewhere that said the Queen was not going to be in the first batch because she was not a health care worker and I assume she did not want to "cut in line". I read another article that said maybe she would take it early just to show it was safe. I think there are pros and cons to either position, wonder where that will land.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/08/europ...ntl/index.html

But the election was stolen, that should be the big news....!:banghead:

Isn't that graph a tad misleading? This is a country that averaged over 7,000 deaths a day in 2017.

Seem very clear that it's trying to reference "deaths due to a specific cause"

Messaging gets really diluted when we asterisk it to death, but ymmv

(heavily predacted)

I read a twitter thread recently that explained that Covid deaths as "reported" actually lag anywhere from 1-3 weeks due solely to the administrative reporting function. Meaning, there's the lag that occurs from an increase in cases to hospitalization to death which is maybe 2-4 weeks, but then there's another administrative lag when deaths are reported from the date death actually occurs to when we see them on a daily report. So, deaths as reported today might relate back to infections that happened upwards of 4-8 weeks ago, and might have occurred weeks ago.

I don't know if that's entirely true or not, but if it is, I have to imagine January daily numbers are going to easily surpass what we're seeing now. Possibly February, too, depending on whether we can start to get cases under control.

Not quite that massive a delay, from what i understand. This is generally true for mortality figures (which are compiled based on death certificates) and can be seen really clearly looking at CDC data on excess deaths. But the Covid deaths themselves get reported rather sooner. Big AFAIK disclaimer and going from memory from when i last looked it up weeks ago.

Lots of vaccine news today:

1) Astrazeneca published a paper in Lancet, which unfortunately adds more confusion than it clears up. Not only was the "accidental" half dose only given to people under 55 but also they got the 2nd more than 8 weeks later. Which is just not actionable and makes it impossible to compare to the standard dosage on 2 fronts.

2) the FDA published 150 pages of data and analysis on the BionTech/Pfizer vaccine. Some aditional info on "needs to be observed" side effects including temporary cerebral palsy. It also alludes to being effective at least short term after the first dose (all you can judge, since everybody got a 2nd after 21 days).

Headliner graphic showing efficacy more visually:



The first bunch of cases veeeery likely were infected before the trial or directly after the first dose (doesn't work instantly). That's why the 2 curves run parallel to start.

Asterisking to death is indeed bad, but when you are talking about extra deaths that don't even approach the typical daily deaths from other causes, that's not what's going on. It's more accurately described as ignoring the big picture and is a gross distortion at best. Propaganda is still bad even when it supports a worthy cause.

This is crazy to think about - while the Trump administration attempted to bypass doing pretty much anything for about 9 months except push to keep the county open while it fast-tracked a vaccine, that approach was obviously flawed.

The good news is: vaccines!
The bad news is: pic.twitter.com/29awQzJYYx

— katie rosman (@katierosman) December 8, 2020

The second person vaccinated was William Shakespeare from Warwick. No lie. We even fucked up the extra publicity making him first would have brought!

And Mr. Shakespeare has more than a passing resemblance to the original.

Because I find it interesting... We seem to average around 2000 a day from both heart disease & cancer, D-Day was around 2500, and the Spanish Flu killed an estimated 195k Americans in October 1918, or 6.5k per day.

I definitely do not like the China government but kudos for trying to do good. Wouldn't surprise me if there are some issues with the vaccine (hopefully minor and not like permanent) but given the choice of waiting for Western vaccines to become available (if its Q2 or Q3 for us in the US, what would it be in Indonesia? or Africe?), I don't think developing countries have many good options.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

The husband of my wife's friend's test came back positive. Their whole house is sick now.

FYI for you guys, MrBug posted tonight that he's heading to the hospital with Covid pneumonia. He's been very sick for the last 8 days. He's lost about 10 pounds, been running a 102 temp and can't keep anything down. Send your best thoughts and prayers his way.

Jesus. Hope he is ok.

Keep strong, MrBug!

Well, shit. Hope he rebounds, and swiftly.

"Oh, the numbers. Oh, only those way over 40. Oh, we're mostly just worried about our parents."

Yeah, screw that noise. We're not bulletproof, either.

Kick some ass, Bug. We're all pulling for you.

I hope he doesn't mind my copy/paste to here.

MrBug's most recent message this morning:

We are all thinking of you Mr. Bug! Stay Strong! And thanks for the update ABC!

Oh man. That's rough

SI

Damn. Good luck Mr. Bug!

So crazy how hit-and-miss this is. Our company president, his wife and stepson all got it within hours of each other, and his wife's brother died from it. Both my kids got it - Caitlin came home for 1 day (lost taste the next day, tested positive 2 days after that), was in the car with me and Mackenzie for 45 minutes and Mackenzie got it. Wife and I spent about 3 weeks in the house with Mackenzie while she tested negative and then positive, kept her isolated, and neither of us got it.

Interesting tool to see how overwhelmed your hospital is.

Is Your Hospital Overwhelmed With COVID-19 Patients? Find Out With This Tool : Shots - Health News : NPR

Beds used by Covid patients - 20%
Beds used overall - 75%
Daily Covid patients 7 day average - 56

Shouldn't the 7 day average of 56 implies the beds used by Covid should be higher than 20%? Maybe those covid patients have covid but are not serious enough to stay in the hospital?

94% full with 33% COVID patients.

That's a good tool, 90% & 32% here.

Here's the reaction of the local conservatives...

https://www.facebook.com/26788519078...4684564438474/

Hope you get better soon, MB! That's gotta be terrifying, but good news that you are feeling better.

65% & 21%. I thought it would be higher. I guess it's good that I'm wrong?

We got a couple hospitals in a 15 min drive

They go (Covid, Overall:
16%, 65% (Emory Decatur)
7%, 77% (Emory Unversity Hospital

That's the area in Texas my wife is from. After listening to her family since this started I'm not the least bit surprised.

We had to submit to our department yesterday whether we wanted the COVID vaccine or not so it looks like we will be getting it shortly after it's approved.