It's fascinating how in the NY-6 primary both Bowman and Latimore are running ads saying they will work closely with Biden and the other guy won't.

Big day for Bowman

... and Boebert. I never noticed but got to ask ... are those real?

https://abcnews.go.com/538/15-electi...y?id=111358930

I don't know or care, but if anyone paid for them, surely she would be in the top 2 of Congresswomen you'd expect to have done so. Probably with campaign funds.

Most expensive primary in history.

Coincidentally, I just read an article from a major news outlet suggesting that Lauren Boebert was "hotboxing meth with Jayson (Boebert) at a man camp"

The same group that made other allegations that she didn't deny very strongly and the group that had the receipts on Cawthorne. They also claim to have receipts here and if they're willing to go to the atf they probably do.

Targeting GOP for the same thing Hunter Biden waa charged with is kinda funny though.

If the gas prices don't come down by election time Biden ain't winning,

They aren't going much lower than they are now, pretty much ever again. Just paid $2.74 yesterday. I'd be shocked to ever see them below 2.50.

He told them to stop being greedy a couple years ago. What more can you ask the leader of the free world to do?

Gas has seemingly cost over $4 on the West coast for as long as I can remember....or at least a couple years.

I share the complaints about gas prices, but then I get completely thrown off when I see people complaining about gas that's practically $2 less than the going rate over here.

Maybe he should run to opec and have them cut production for 2 years again.

I'm not going to complain too much about gas considering it's been relatively stable for a couple of years and we pay so much less than other places.

HOWEVER, I am completely pissed that gas stations are now charging $1 to $1.50 more a gallon than regular for premium all of a sudden. Way back when, it used to be a simple $.10 jump from regular to mid to premium. Then it jumped up to $.50 more for premium. Recently, it went to about $.70-75 more. Now, I'm paying at least a dollar and sometimes way more for premium above the regular price, and what sucks about it is that gas stations rarely advertise the premium price anymore, so I'm having to guess at how much over regular a particular station charges as I pull in.

Gasbuddy.com

Premium is about 60 cents more than regular around my parts. Costco premium is about 10 cents cheaper.

Just checked around here. I see a couple at 7o cents above regular but most at 95 cents or a dollar over regular. And the "cheapest" regular which is right off the highway coming home from work is $1.25 more for premium. That was the one that burned me the other day because I thought I'd get a good deal on premium because regular was so much cheaper, but.... no.

And Boebert is projected to win it by a comfortable margin. I guess moving to another district was a smart move.



Edit: … and down goes Bowman

We'll see, she's the one politician that could put that district, my district unfortunately, in play. She's not popular but she had the name recognition over 5 other candidates who failed to distinguish themselves.

party of family values...

Actual shot of Trump on a bike

I was in Atlanta today and saw a sign warning of bad traffic delays tomorrow, and I was like "What;s happening tomorrow? Oh, the debate."

Nate Silver just posted his forecast of the election, and basically says it is Trump's to lose. He says looking at the data that the race isn't even really that close. Biden has little chance of winning Georgia, Arizona or Nevada, so that means he must win Michigan, Pennsylvanian and Wisconsin to get the Eloctoral College. And his numbers there aren't great either. The chances of him losing one or more is pretty high.

But 538 has it as a toss up.

Such a weird election.

538 is now run by the numbers guy from The Economist. He has had a spotty track record. Silver is a doofus and I think his analysis sucks, but he's been pretty damn good with the numbers.

I think most of the data folks see it the same way. Biden is cooked in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. Needs to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to hang on. Still think he has a decent chance to win those states but Michigan is going to be real tough with the higher Arab population and the complete loss of youth voters.

LoL. Nate Silver is many things, but he is far from a doofus. I don't understand this continuing trend of 'this person disagrees with me, therefore they must be a moron'.

As a Michigander, why do you think there's a complete loss of youth voters? Suffice to say I would be very surprised if Trump wins Michigan. It could happen, but I think the odds are quite low.

I think North Carolina is going to be really close this year, as well. I don't know if Biden can win this time, but I'll be a little surprised if we don't see a few polls with him leading there at some point in the remaining cycle.

Anecdotally, I have talked to several people that I would consider conservative, in the last few weeks, that have been more outspoken about being disgusted with Trump and just wanting this part of GOP history to be over with. For him to win and without a giant Biden blunder or health scare, I think his team is really going to have to keep him under wraps for the next few months (which is entirely possible).

Not saying he's a moron at all. He's a brilliant statistician. Just think he comes across like a doofus when he goes into pundit mode and shifts away from the math. He had some bizarre COVID conspiracy takes.

As for Michigan, they have a higher than average Arab population which used to be strongly Biden. And the state had a hefty uptick in youth voters from 2016 which I just don't see continuing at that level. The state was fairly close and Biden was leading in the polls by like 7-8% at this time in 2020.

I think the election comes down to turnout. A lot of people were motivated to vote Trump out in 2020. I just don't think there will be as much motivation as last time with such an unpopular President unless Trump really steps in some shit (always a possibility!).

Ok, it's just a difference in terminology. I don't see the difference between the word 'doofus' and 'moron'. They are the same thing in my mind.

I agree with you on turnout, but there's a lot of hate for Whitmer and that didn't stop her from winning easily, as one example. Of course Dixon was a disastrous candidate, but it was still a double-digit spread.

I guess like with everything else, we'll wait and see.

Michigan should be solidly blue this cycle but Biden is so incredibly unpopular it sort of throws the state into flux.

Definitely don't think Whitmer wins by double digits against a semi-competent candidate but do think she wins by a comfy margin still. Slotkin seems to be up 3-5 points in most polls in the Senate race which feels like most Dems should be polling in Michigan.

How much more shit could Trump possibly step in? He’s bulletproof with his base. Trump could roll into a town with Slim Pickens and run a number 6 on it and his base would somehow justify it.

It is easy to forget how much of a bubble I live in.

I live in a blue-tinted purple area. And my personal social circle tends to be liberal or non-MAGA conservatives. So I sometimes think to myself "how does Trump have a slight lead right now? It makes no sense."

I just got back from visiting family in Trump Country. And it was good to be reminded of just how strong his support is. Lots of Trump everywhere. And what's interesting is that it isn't just the typical GOP/Candidate yard signs. It is very Trump-specific flags and banners and stickers and everything. Many of which are obviously not produced by the campaign but are (I assume) from an etsy-like place for Trump merch. You almost wouldn't realize that he's a political candidate. The closest analogy I can think of is college sports fandom/flags/stickers/etc.

Anyway, liberals like me underestimate how deep and broad his support is in a lot of the country.

dola: And I have no idea if Don Jr. or DeSantis or Carlson or Vance or whomever will be able to capture that when Trump leaves or if he's really 1 of 1.

I've come to accept the fact we are going to get another 4 years of Trump and the ghouls that will run roughshod over democracy. As an upper middle class white guy I will be fine, but I worry about the state of the nation after another 4 years. Womens, LGBTQ, immigrants, etc...it is going to be a disaster. I guess this is who we are as a nation.

It isn't yet July. Nothing is decided and most polling shows the race to be very close.

dola

If there really is a drug that magically cured dementia, yes, lots of old people should take it all the time.

Again, I wish these people could direct their energy into sports fandom, because I think a lot of it is indeed that. They've joined a team, they have hatred of the other team, and nothing else (i.e. actual governance) actually matters. Which is great in sports, where it DOESN'T matter. Here, not as great.

Did you see any of the car window decals that makes it look like Trump is either driving the car or riding in the passenger seat?

People really put that on their car windows.

Co-sign. I don't expect my life to get appreciably worse, but I hate that the same can't be said for others and that, in all likelihood, the last 2 or 3 decades of my time on this planet are going to be during a time in which the US is headed downhill while a bunch of aging white Christian racists rage against the dying light to retain their status/power.

Biden can't do anything about specific state prices though. In Washington our prices are high because oil companies realized they can pass off the cost to buy carbon credits for the year onto customers. They thought it would force the state to drop the bidding on credits but the state isn't caving.

We also have lower home energy costs than most states. I pay about $120 a month to heat and cool a 2300 square foot home while some of my friends in Texas are pushing $300+ per month on average for smaller homes.

Distance from the refineries + taxes are the biggest drivers of regional differences in gas prices.

What? I just thought presidents happened to hate Hawaii...

"presidents definitely set gas prices" -us voters

Trumps been consistently behind in all the swing states and Biden is bleeding support from minorities and Latinos. His biggest problem is one that can’t be fixed, his age, and every gaffe is shown on a loop. Biden’s most likely cooked in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona leaving him a very slim path.

Oregon also got rid of the requirement for gas station attendants to pump your gas relatively recently, and even though it's been over a year I expect some of those costs were baked in over time and nobdy's really rushing to readjust those costs back in the consumer's favor.

It's kind of shocking. Silver’s model, which ran 40,000 simulations, suggests that Trump has a 65.7% chance of winning the Electoral College, with an average margin of 287.2 electoral votes.

I suppose this actually makes sense, given that Trump has a slight lead in the national popular vote right now. If the popular vote ends up close to 50/50, Trump should win the electoral college by a comfortable margin.

It's like a bad and worse scenario - one, Trump likely is going to win. But two, if he doesn't, so many people are going to have read for months in the media that Trump will probably win that if he actually were to lose, I doubt Biden's victory gets certified because nobody will believe it - which, in turn, will lend credence to Trump's 2020 argument (in some twisted way, even without evidence then or now).

In sum... we're fucked one way or the other.

If you want to talk about presidents' effects on gas prices, I don't know of much that has affected them as much as Trump's two deals with OPEC to first flood the market with oil pre-covid and then cut back on production post-covid. The first nearly destroyed the american oil and gas industry and the second, as a desperate attempt to save it, was such an over-reaction that it led to the huge spike we saw in 2021-2022.

But yeah, mostly presidents don't affect gas prices much.

And it didn't need to be that way, but Biden and his pals in the democrat party establishment have doubled and tripled down on the flawed belief that they can put a walking corpse up against Trump, and because Trump is such a reprehensible and despicable human being that the walking corpse will cross the finish line ahead of him. A lot of democrat strategists like Carville have already come to the conclusion that this election is probably lost for Biden.

Yeah with that phraseology I'm sure you'd be voting for them if they ran someone else.

(Also, no blame for the party who nominated the other guy three straight times, right?)

Also, none of y'all have any relatives that age? Is it common parlance to refer to them as "walking corpses"?

I mean, the Republicans could have:

1. Voted to impeach him the first time
2. Voted to impeach him the second time
3. Taken the J6 hearings seriously
4. Taken any of the election denialism seriously
5. Not interfered with the Georgia case
6. Not slow-walked the documents case
7. Not slow-walked Presidential immunity in the SCOTUS
8. Not voted for him in the primaries
9. Ditched him after the NY verdict

But no! Still the fault of the Democratic Party that they didn't ditch their sitting president, who by most objective measures outside of gas prices (which are debatable) and the fact that he didn't somehow age backwards has done a pretty decent jobs? Fuck right off with all that.

It's always the fault of the Dems.

The fact is GOPers like MAGA, want MAGA, and will vote to force everyone else to suffer MAGA. The only other option is an old guy, but one's who's competent and decent. He's not my favorite but he's so far better than the alternative that I'd crawl over glass if I was the deciding vote.

Dems are expected to be daycare for the GOP, guardrails for democracy, and appease everyone from moderates to progressives to get people's votes while the GOP has to simply not have a D next to their name to get votes.

The disingenuous bullshit people use to justify a Trump or 3rd party vote is tiresome.

I thought Obama's strategy was pretty smart. He lorded weapons over the Saudis until they cranked up as much oil as they could which led to lower gas prices, fucked Russia over hard (part of the reason they were so in the tank for Trump), and forced Iran to negotiate. If you're going to work with these detestable regimes, at least get something out of it.

Biden threatened the Saudis with consequences for oil cuts but they called his bluff and realized he's a weak kneed pussy who is subservient to them.

‘There is only so much patience one can have’: Biden appears to back off vow to punish Saudi Arabia | CNN Politics

It's kind of funny in retrospect since the knock on Obama during the 2008 campaign was that he was too inexperienced and naive to handle these things. But he had some brilliant moments and had the Saudis wrapped around his finger by the end.

Biden has the US producing more oil domestically and importing less from the Saudi's than at any other point so I wouldn't call him subservient to them.

Biden admin approves potential multibillion-dollar arms sales to Saudi Arabia and UAE | CNN Politics
US poised to ease restrictions on sale of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia | CNN Politics
US expected to lift ban on sale of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, FT reports
reuters.com
Intercepted Podcast: Biden’s War Expands From Gaza to Yemen

We're another term away from Biden letting the Crown Prince fuck his wife in front of him.

Also lol at the defense of this being that Biden is actually worse for the planet than Trump was. Reminds me of the Biden PR hack who came out yesterday proclaiming that CEOs backed Biden. Not the win you think it is.

Maybe we can get a "Drill baby Drill" chant going at the DNC.

Well that's not something I saw coming. lol

Biden speaks like a deflating balloon

15K jobs, 15M jobs what's the difference... and then it gets worse.

Trump is a disaster too but the voice is brutal.

Joe is speaking too fast.

Uh oh … he froze just now on taxes on the billionaires.

Trumps content may be BS but he’s doing a better job presenting right now.

This election is a disaster. Two blubbering idiots 10 years past their primes.

In-laws vs incest, what's the difference? There better be an exit plan because this is even worse than I ever feared.

Joe is getting dogwalked by a dude talking about after-birth abortions

Fucking shit. Trump is an idiot and Biden is worse.

It has been like 20 minutes and the election is over if Biden doesn't drop out.

Joe leaving his mouth open when not talking is not a good look IMO.

I like the question on illegals, but the fact checkers will be up late for both of them.

Trump handed him a layup in abortion and Biden turned it into an immigrant rape story. What in the fuck.

I'm out, before a half-hour is even over. We are fuuuuucked.

I watched like 10 seconds, enough to see Trump destroy Biden with the "I don't know what he said, and I don't think he does either."

So much for my mental health over the next 4 years.

I cant vote for Trump and now I can't vote for Biden. What a disaster for the Dems and of their own making. How the recover over the next 5 months will either save the party (maybe country) or be a complete wipe out.

It would be called convincing Biden to step down and putting someone coherent in his place. I echo the earlier sentiment, we are fucked for the next 4 years. Thanks a lot to both parties for this shit show.

They absolutely cannot run him in November.

I like this format. No interruptions so far.

Who has lost this debate? America.

As someone who works in long term care, I can tell you that there are some instances where you don’t convince a person that is “incoherent” of anything. You move to establish them as incompetent and appoint a power of attorney. I think we may be at that point here. It obviously isn’t Plan A, but it exists as an option.

This prepared answer by Trump on Jan 6 is laughably terrible

Who decided it was a good idea to have two 70+ year olds debate at 9 PM? I'm in my 40s and have been ready to go to bed since dinner.

Trump could feel the danger in the air so he sent the crowd to the Capitol?

I don't see a save here. Biden stepping aside and allowing party delegates make the choice would be a disaster. Biden should have never decided to run again. It was a mistake from the get-go. No guarantee anyone that came out the primary would have won, but you have to think at this point they would have at least had a fighting chance. Maybe Biden can pull some miracle after this, but he was already in trouble and I'm seeing die-hard supporters think "what have we done?" at this point.

Biden isn't capable of landing even the easiest segment.

Regardless of party, everybody under 70 will come out of this some flavor of angry and resentful. We're all going to crumble into dust as our boomer 'leaders' refuse to give up a sliver of money or power.

Biden somehow lost on a question regarding January 6th. Did they not prep at all?

Biden's best moment was talking about the porn star affair. Gods help us.

Its morbidly poetic that the children of the The Greatest Generation, the generation that literally saved democracy, end up destroying it because they never measured up.

Biden's team must be even more incompetent than Biden. He should have turned every topic into a Jan 6th and convicted felon question. Fucking West Wing wannabes as usual.

Or abortion. An issue that people actually go out and vote over.

Everyone's a winner now. Why? It's over.

Fall debates generally don't matter, so I doubt this one will either.

But it does give everyone something to talk about for the next few days.

The problem was this wasn't a serious format. This was a free 90 minute Trump rally on live TV. It was just 90 minutes of watching a pathetic rich guy whine and lie. He never answered one question and I'm not sure if he ever told the truth at all. It was pathetic by the don. As is America, it's Joe is old and not don is a sad, old pathetic convicted felon of a lunatic that shouldn't even be nominated in the first place. If you vote for trump and the pea brained GOPers that worship him, you deserve what is coming.

I'm about 20 minutes in and this is a disaster. Most voters aren't paying attention until now and honestly if I was one of them I would probably vote Trump based off this performance.

I agree the format was ridiculous, but on what planet do you think CNN is going to tilt a debate format in Trump's favor?

Both were really bad. Biden on presentation and Trump on sustenance. Biden got better as the debate went on but those opening 15 minutes so were brutal. Everything from Trump was either a lie or just rambling to avoid answering the question.

Younger, effective politicians from either side eat these guys alive tonight.

Someone should take both to a retirement home and we'll pick new people starting tomorrow.

This isn't the first time trump has done this. Debates without any control are perfect for him. He just gets to be his normal lying unhinged clown self.

You missed the whole Chris Licht deal?

Changes spark chatter of CNN shifting to the right

Shame on CNN for That Naked, Cynical Play for Fox Viewers

CNN getting more Republicans on-air as it seeks political diversity

CNN definitely gave Biden dementia and made him look terrible.

Trump lied and avoided questions entirely, but nobody on either side can claim to be surprised by his performance in any way. On the other hand some significant knives are bound to come out for Joe over this (you can already find calls for him to step aside), and on balance it was obviously a major loss for Biden.

The incumbent often does pretty bad in the first debate. Obama was abysmal in 2012 and Reagan looked out of it in 1984. The difference was that both were ahead before those debates. Biden is in a much worse position right now.

What are the chances Trump finds a way to skip the 2nd debate?

Biden could have come out in his underwear saying he spoke to Beau backstage before the debate and I'd still vote for him.