You don't need to remind me that Biden has been wrong on just about every foreign policy decision of the last 50 years. And while the support of a violent ethnostate is abhorrent, I do think their shift toward active genocide changes the game a bit. And the fact that Biden is so insistent on providing billions more for that genocide that he'll make concessions with Republicans.

As for young voters, maybe they didn't know much about the conflict. Maybe these events have caused them to read about the Nabka, the 6-day war, the concentration camps, forced sterilizations, illegal settlements, etc. It's a conflict that isn't widely taught in schools and reporting isn't prevalent on the ground due to Israel's policy of assassinating journalists.

Either way, people can make their own moral judgements about Biden and whether he is deserving of their vote. You can't run on "orange man bad" every year and expect people to keep giving a shit.

The left could learn a lot from the anti-abortion folks. They've spent basically my entire lifetime fighting for a policy that every poll shows is unpopular and they largely won. They didn't quit in the 80's when Reagan didn't ban abortion or in the 2000s when Bush didn't either. They chipped away at a policy they didn't like, moving things forward and not giving up when they faced setbacks.

You'll end up happy though because Trump will win things will get worse and you'll be able to crow about how right you were. Arguing with the left is as predictable and ultimately productive as fucking a cinder block.

What poll shows a ceasefire as unpopular? Recent polls show it at nearly 70% of people support calls for one. Heck, polls show that Americans are against sending weapons to Israel too (43% to 31%). It's you and Biden that are taking the unpopular position.

And regardless, we're talking about genocide. Is your argument that the left should support genocide and hope to make it an even more unpopular position over the next few decades?


I don't like Trump which is why I won't be voting for him either. But since as you say, Biden is doing the popular thing, there should be no worries about him losing this election.

Ceasefire is popular, but support for Israel is still very popular as well. Every poll I have seen in the last two months has supported sending aid to Israel at over 50%. Only the far left and far right have strong anti-Israel opnions.

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I didn't realize I had that kind of power. We're going to have a choice between Biden & Trump. You kind of have to live with it - that's how our system works.

And pointing to 2000 does not, I feel, make your point. Everyone who voted for Nader, gifting victory to Bush, shouldn't feel great about how the next 8 years turned out.


For the second time of asking, show me a different realistic Democratic candidate who is going to win those swing states. With evidence. I'll wait.

Recounts showed that Gore won Florida. Just saying the Democrats didn't really give a shit about "democracy" then so I'll take their righteous indignation with a grain of salt.


I don't know because the party has locked out any possible challenger. I think if they had made an effort to promote younger politicians over the last decade, they would have some contenders. I think Kelly, Whitmer, JB, Shapiro, and a slew of others would be better candidates if the Dems had given them any sort of publicity.

But hey, maybe Biden is best and recent swing state polls are off. We will see how it works out for the Dems in November.

Haley looking good in NH at 2nd. Guessing she'll be 3rd in Iowa.

Hope NH gives her a momentum surge like Joe got from SC.

New Hampshire Republican Presidential Preference Primary

Haley is 30+ points behind Trump in her own state.

OK, it's not clear to me what you're arguing, RM.

If you're arguing that the Democratic party has kind of fucked itself here and shouldn't be in the precarious position it now finds itself in, then yes, I agree and I've been saying that they've been a useless bunch of idiots since at least the 90s.

If you're arguing that there's really no functional difference between the Democratic and Republican parties and so you should vote third party, or stay home, in 2024 to send a message to those idiots in the Democratic party, then I'd like to invite you to consider the issue with shooting off your nose to spite your face.

The reality of the American electoral system is that you're almost always voting for a compromised candidate or the lesser of two evils. I get the frustration that sometimes you vote for a candidate while holding your nose and then they win and crow about how they have a mandate, when really you just didn't want the other person. It would be nice to have a 5-point scale next to the person you're voting for on the ballot that gauges how much you really support them, from "I was literally this close to not voting at all" on one end to "yes, I really think you're a great candidate" on the other.

What are you talking about here? In what way did the 2000 election show that Dems didn't care about Democracy?

You would hate every single one of those people if they got the nomination and/or elected.

I suspect I'm consuming a similar degree of leftist content that RM is, I don't have the heart to wade into the Israel/Palestine thread but typically agree with the line of posting I see from RM there. When it comes to voting and how to vote, I see a lot of strong aggression from leftists towards the idea of "vote blue no matter who", or the urgency to vote against Trump. Most of these folks don't vote at all or will vote 3rd party. Some choose to vote in local elections and ignore the national stage.

When I see a black or LGBT creator tell me that their lived experience is that the democrats talk a lot but don't actually do anything for them, so there's really no difference, I'm not going to try to argue that. But I feel like my white straight male privileged self can still vote for perceived harm reduction and be just fine, so I'll continue to do that.

Perhaps marginally less so than Biden, but yes, you're definitely not wrong. (speaking for me, not RM)

Kelly is another moderate Dem. He's younger and a military guy, which probably gives him broader appeal but I don't see a Kelly presidency being much different than Biden's. He's 100% with Israel and has praised the Biden administration's handling of it. He's also for a lot of the GOP border policies and is very moderate on climate.

I like Whitmer, but I don't see her beating Trump. I would say Dems should work to raise her profile ahead of 2028.

Pritzker would get absolutely hammered for his ties to Blagojevich and the backroom deals he was discussing on a FBI wiretap with him. It wouldn't be a problem for a GOP candidate, but some of the stuff he said on wire tap would quickly end a campaign for just about any Dem.

I really don't have that high of expectations. Just can't be actively funding and aiding a genocide. That feels like an incredibly low bar.

They won the election but let it be stolen because they didn't want to be seen as sore losers.

If you're doing the "democracy is at stake" argument, where were you 23 years ago when this actually happened?

They fought through the legal system and lost. They had no other recourse.

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They should’ve had an insurrection, Jan 6th style only successful.

And major studies showed that Bush would have won the recount. Gore would likely have won without the errors in voting, but there is no legal way they could have corrected those errors after the election.. You are just wrong again.
https://www.cnn.com/2015/10/31/polit...ies/index.html

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Meanwhile, groups like Democracy Docket are constantly fighting to protect democracy and people's rights to vote, while Republicans try to put up every barrier they can to suppress people's votes. Republicans make it very clear that believe only people like them should be allowed to vote and have contempt for democracy and the will of the people. Your "both side"-ism flies in the face of every fact.

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What should've Gore done after he was shot down by the Supreme Court?

Literally says that if undervotes and overvotes were counted, Gore would have won. Gore didn't bother with overvotes because he is a moron (and Florida had some insane recount rules).

How is this any different than Trump? If he tried to pull some shenanigans, the legal system will step in and he will have no recourse. What's the concern here?

They tried to stop the certification of the election by force. So no, it wasn't through legal means. And that article clearly says the recount would have been won by Bush. There was mo legal way to correct wrong ballots. The only way to fix the problems with that election was before it happened.

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Brooks Brothers riot - Wikipedia

"Taken as a whole, the recount studies show Bush would have most likely won the Florida statewide hand recount of all undervotes. Undervotes are ballots that did not register a vote in the presidential race."

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Yes, Republicans tried to stop that recount by force. They hate democracy. What's your point?

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"The studies also show that Gore likely would have won a statewide recount of all undervotes and overvotes, which are ballots that included multiple votes for president and were thus not counted at all. However, his legal team never pursued this action.

The studies also support the belief that more voters went to the polls in Florida on Election Day intending to vote for Gore than for Bush"

But there was no legal means to do that. You can't suppose a vote. The voting system was flawed and there was no legal means to correct it afterwards.

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Gore made strategic errors for sure, but the idea that the Democrats didn't fight in 2000 is just ridiculous and not a rational interpretation of what happened.

It took me five seconds of Googling to find the exact same "unequivocal support for Israel" line for every one of them. There's no doubt they would have the same position on Israel as Biden. If anything, some of them would be more pro-Israel than Biden.

There is no legal means for Trump to remove our form of democracy. So what's the concern here?

And I'm sure Democrats made huge efforts to fix this flawed system and preserve democracy after it happened. Right?

I wouldn't vote for anyone of any party who aids supports a genocide. I do think Dems would have a better chance of winning running a younger, more coherent candidate that is not wildly unpopular.

Trump has made it clear he is not going to allow the rule of law to get in his way this time. He is already creating a list of thousands of loyalists he is going to put in position in bureaucratic roles on day one that swear allegiance only to him. He is also preparing to remove military leaders to supplant with his cronies, and swears to remove barriers from using the military on domestic grounds. He is openly bragging about this, this is not some made up fear mongering. The restrictions he had in his last term are going to be gone if he wins again.


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Much of that would be illegal and as you've implied, he would have no recourse in the courts.

And if he ignores the courts, what recourse would anyone have? If his cronies are controlling the law enforcement, and the Senate refuses to remove him from office?

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The fact that you're digging your heels in defending and downplaying Trump because you're upset Biden is doing what nearly any realistically electable official would be doing in Israel makes no sense to me.

I get you're upset over our support for Israel and it's a subject you're passionate about, but some of your arguments here are inconsistent, are moving goalposts, inaccurate, and sometimes just plain weird.

Dems aren't the only ones sounding the alarm on Trump and our democracy. Our allies, international organizations, watchdogs, historians, etc have all expressed concerns in one form or another. It is a scare tactic , but one to wake people up to the dangers of a man that is one step away from quoting Hitler, wants to be a dictator, and tried to violently overthrow our government.


Find me a realistic candidate that doesn't support Israel or Saudi Arabia? For something that you claim isn't a high bar it's awfully difficult to find realistic candidates that fit. So the choice is to vote for the candidate that aligns with your views closest or lose elections. That's something the progressives on the left still don't understand. Progress typically doesn't come in leaps and you have to take small wins where you can to build toward bigger wins.

He has already had the test run. If the orders he gave at the end of his first term were obeyed, then he would have stayed in power then. He now knows who he needs to remove so no one gets in his way.

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I'm on board with all you describe but before you get too panicked about it, just know that I'm also assuming it'll end up being more empty campaign promises so I'm not particularly excited about it either.

But he would abide by the results of the 2024 election?

Law enforcement is already heavily right-wing and the makeup of the Senate isn't changing anytime soon. Weird that he's going to end democracy but not if he loses the election.

There probably isn't. Those countries have lobbied hard and call the shots here. Doesn't mean I need to vote for a war criminal.

I don't know what the big deal is. Sounds like you all think Biden is the best man and is doing everything right to win. One vote in Illinois is not going to change that. I'm sure he has it in the bag.

The 2024 Presidential Nomination Thread
 

I think I’ve seen repeatedly people say least worst in this thread or lessor of compromised


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He is going to try. They already have set the stage in several states.

I (currently) believe Joe has the best odds of beating Trump. It's fine if you believe there are better suited Dem candidates that can beat Trump. Let's go through the nomination process. Moan, complain, whine all you want (and admittedly, some times with good reason) ...

... but at the end of the day, if Joe wins the Democratic nomination, you either support him or you don't (e.g. stay home, vote for Trump, vote for other 3rd party etc.). I support anyone's right to stay home or vote 3rd party. But that right may result in Trump being elected, and you will share part of the blame.

Too bad this question wasn't asked in Germany in the 30's. A lot of folks knew "the leader" could be controlled and not really do anything. They were wrong.

Did you miss it when he incited his followers to storm the capitol and disrupt the final processes of the election by force?

As one of his acolytes said, were it (January 6th) to happen again, the crowd storming the capitol would be a lot better armed.

So why does the election matter if he isn't going to abide by the results? Kind of seems moot.

A far-right ethnostate might setup concentration camps and then commit a violent ethnic cleansing to expand their own lands if we aren't careful.

Doesn't have to have the exact same reasons, nor end results. Don't feel bad if you can't see the danger, most Germans didn't either.

*whoosh*

Ramaswamy appears to be on the verge of dropping out. He's suspended all ad spending.

People around DeSantis are reportedly planning on trying to convince him to drop out as well.

... with a "big surprise, doing it differently" thingy. But yeah, he's lost momentum, people have seen through his schtick and have found him wanting.


I think DeSantis will wait to see the results from the early primaries first.

I really don't know if he is wrong about TV ads. The importance of television ads does sort of seem two decades ago thinking. Still, you have to be spending some money on keeping your name in front of voters. I know he has completely given himself to in-person campaigning in Iowa, and that might work there. He is rolling the dice on a surprise result in Iowa to propel him forward. Of course all of it is a waste of time since Trump is probably going to beat the field soundly.

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He was spending hundreds of thousands a week on TV and now he's out of money. He's going to have to go back to the drawing board for a new way to scam people out of their money.

Maybe he can bring in George Santos as a consultant.

Maine boots Trump off their primary ballot

It's good that Colorado and Maine are pushing the issue. From what I've read, the odds are in favor of Trump but I do think SCOTUS should rule on this (and quickly) and make an formal decision.

It'd be fascinating to hear their internal discussions, rationales etc.

He hasn't been convicted of insurrection or rebellion, so he's fine according to SCOTUS. That's my guess.

I just saw a Nikki Haley attack ad from DeSantis here in Washington.

During the Iowa game? I think I heard a presidential ad during the game which makes sense given the audience.

That does make sense now.

It's still strange to see the 2nd place guy attacking the person in 3rd place.

When the only chance in hell they both have is the guy in first can’t run any more, it would make perfect sense?

The real question would be whether it’s a pure Hail Mary or if there’s actually something they are looking at that means they believe maybe Trump might not be able to be the candidate.

O’BRIEN, TRUMP DISCUSS TEAMSTER ISSUES AHEAD OF RANK-AND-FILE ROUNDTABLE

Teamsters General President Sean M. O’Brien met privately with President Donald Trump on Wednesday for an in-depth and productive discussion on worker issues most important to the Teamsters Union.

The… pic.twitter.com/LL6dWqJKF6

— Teamsters (@Teamsters) January 4, 2024

How many town halls is Ron DeSantis going to do? I am not watching but it is headlined on CNN.com. I feel like I am aware of DeSantis doing like 6-7 of these in that three months or so on both Fox and CNN. Are all the candidates doing tons of individual town halls in lieu of debates?

Yeah, let’s do this.

I guess Trump is at war with magnets now? He claims magnets don't work when they get wet.

I mean, there's this too:

Trump on The Civil War: I’m so attracted to seeing it. There was something that could’ve been negotiated… Abraham Lincoln, if he negotiated it, we wouldn’t know who Lincoln was. He wouldn’t have been the Abraham Lincoln. But that would’ve been ok. pic.twitter.com/RbmnXCvypI

— Acyn (@Acyn) January 6, 2024

The way he talks about how attractive the civil war is you'd think he wants to grab it by the pussy.

Btw, he's like a child that learns something and wants to go out and tell everyone. Explaining to people that in the 1800s when you got shot you'd likely either lose the limb or die makes sense to him because he just learned it and he doesn't have the self awareness to realize that it's common knowledge to anyone that made it past elementary school.

So true. I remember when he discovered the phrase “priming the pump” (in regards to the economy) back in 2016 or 2017 and he couldn’t get enough of saying it and then explaining what it means. I think, at one point, he even tried to claim being the first person to say it. Of course, sadly, this level of discourse is on level for an upsetting level of Americans nowadays.

I know it's a rhetorical question, but how can anybody with an IQ over 70 support this guy, he is a fucking idiot, attracting others just as stupid.

It's largely not about IQ. He opposes the right people and has the correct letter in front of his name on the ballot. That is enough for the lions share of Americans to support a candidate.

He "tells it like it is." To people who just hate anyone different, having a politician who "isn't afraid" to say the quiet things out loud is refreshing. They don't care about facts. They care that he voice how they feel.

I think it is that he is so unbelievably unethical, entitled, and selfish, that he literally has more illegal and immoral things going on at any one time than most any other person could have in 100 lifetimes. And, when he has to face any accountability or consequences, he whines about it and makes it seem like he is being picked on.

Like he legit has almost 100 charges against him, his family (he and Jared, blatantly) clearly have profited from their positions, he slept with a porn star while his wife was pregnant, friends with Epstein, buried his ex-wife/mother of his children at his golf course for a tax break, and those are before you get into unproven accusations. I think most of his people believe that there is no way one person can be that awful, so he must be targeted by the media/Dems/Rhinos/elite and, “if they’d do it to him, they’ll do it to us, too.”

He hurts the right people.

For a guy that tells it like it is they spend a lot of time telling us what he really meant.

Chris Cristie is going to announce he is dropping out at 5 pm today. He isn't endorsing anyone yet.

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Won't matter really but could help Haley a bit in New Hampshire.

Just curious if anybody watched the Haley / DeSantis debate and thoughts on it. On line the consensus seems to be that Haley came out the better of the two.

I didn't, but I had heard her supporters where pretty disappointed in her performance.

I didn't but I heard neither of them really went after Trump, which is insane. To have any chance, especially in NH, you have to get those Christie voters.

In reality it doesn't matter, but acting like he barely exists is insane to me. I guess they both have done the calculation that their best bet is Trump not being on the ticket and picking up MAGA.

Election season has begun. Rooting for Haley for 2nd and then pulling off an upset in NH (?).

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-ne...-24/index.html

I'm rooting for something even more improbable - sanity.

Seriously

I think that's called "trout".

If elections are going to happen (and it will), then it comes down to what's the best of the bad choices ... both in the Democratic and GOP primaries, and then the Presidential election.

Unless you join the 35-40% of citizens that don't vote.

And as always, the "both sides" implied in your "best of the bad choices" is ridiculous to me, personally. When the Democratic Party is tsken hostage by the crazies, call me. Until then, the simple answer is that we can overcome 4 years of bad policies (if that's what you believe), but we can't overcome 4 years of dismantling our democracy. Which the GOP is openly talking about doing.

Hmmm... 35% capital gains tax rate or wholesale firing of government staff, releasing convicted 1/6 criminals, giving Ukraine to Putin and back to cozying up to authoritarians across the world, and everything else that the orange shitstain wants for his personal gain. But hey, as long as I'm a white, male, upperclass Christian, I'll be on the "winning" team!

You read too much into my post.

I'm simply stating that many GOP voters are going to vote for Trump even if he wasn't their first choice because the worse choice is Joe. Many in the party are going to vote for Haley-DeSantis-Ramaswamy because Trump is too extreme for them.

Similarly, many Democratic voters will do the same.

And this is rinse-and-repeat for all election cycles. There's nothing new about voting for "best of bad choices".

That's not what is happening, though, because if it was, there'd be some semblance of a consensus on which candidate is the best choice given that this goes well behind the typical "rinse and repeat" of policy choices and personality. This is not an election where "On balance, I'm more in favor of business interests and free markets, so I'm sticking with the GOP" talking points make any sense.

Painting this as a typical election cycle is exactly the problem. One candidate is telling people he is going to prosecute his political enemies (without articulating a legal basis for doing so) and even suggesting executions. But yeah, Joe is much worse.

I'll disagree here. I certainly don't see this as a marker of "best of bad choices" happening (or not). IMO the marker is opinion polls and how many people complain about it. And since election season has just begun, more to come here.

I think what you are saying is this election cycle is much worse, more important etc. than others. It's not the normal voting for "best of bad choices".

If so, I don't disagree.

Arguably, 2016 was worse than 2024. But both revolve around the same person, so same difference.

I always rank candidates, by who I think will do the best job of leading the country, with no regard for party as all. And sadly DeSantis is closer to Biden now, than 3 months ago, but it is still Biden if Haley does not pull off a hail Mary.

This time around
1-Haley
.
.
.
.
.
.Big drop off
2-Biden
3-Desantis
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.Huge drop off
4-Trump

Every poll has Trump winning the primaries. And that is what probably will happen. But if he loses some early races, I am somewhat fascinated to see how it will play out. His supporters, we know, will not accept those results. And he will, we know, encourage them on to cheat and use violence to thwart the will of the electorate.
How does the rest of the GOP react to that when he is using violence against them instead of against Americans as a whole?

I am "anyone but Trump", so my default is Joe.

But if Haley somehow wins the nomination, I'd seriously consider her vs Joe.


Agree, it'd be fascinating how that all plays out.

Exit polls have 2/3 of GOPers saying Biden didn't win.

Haley would likely walk over Biden right now. Of course the election is months away and how much damage Trump would do if he wasn't on the ballot is an open question.

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No shock. Trump called the winner as soon as the first numbers come in.

Ironically I'd take Biden over that treacherous bitch

I really would like to meet one of these unicorn GOPers who would vote for anyone other than Trump. I know people who said they would vote for DeSantis but those people would only do so if DeSantis was not on the ballot. Those people are few and far between. They are also the only ones willing to consider the election occurring if Trump is not on the ballot. Obviously, these people exists

DeSantis finishing second really kills the fantasy that Haley would be a real challenge to Trump after New Hampshire.

dola

And Vivek never had a chance with these people no matter to what lengths he was willing to degrade himself.

Iowa voter on Ramaswamy: "I’m not being prejudiced, guys, but I don’t like his name. I don’t like where he came from. After 9/11, I still harbor a lot of hard feelings."

On #TheFocusGroup, @SarahLongwell25 previews the caucuses with the great Ann Selzer. https://t.co/MzEbzI8CAb

— Will Saletan (wsaletan on Threads) (@saletan) January 15, 2024

Find some of the Kemp-truebelievers in Georgia, probably some amongst those.

Damnable fools basically.

I think he just wanted his name out there and maybe a cabinet position. Guessing he gets the latter.