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-   -   The Sitcom Sanitarium: The Return of Werewolf (Game Over - Village wins / Telle Wins) (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=92992)

EagleFan 05-10-2017 09:16 PM

You wake up in the morning and tentatively head to the main room.

Everyone is still alive.

Is this is, is the nightmare over????

EagleFan 05-10-2017 09:16 PM

Day Three has Begun!

Telle 05-10-2017 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 3159800)
Final Vote Totals

5 Abe Sargent - fontisian (516), bhlloy (552), Autumn (554), JAG (572)
3 Autumn - mauchow (557), cheekimonk (562), Telle (584)
2 fontisian - britrock88 (481), Abe Sargent (495)


Is that 5 for Abe correct? There's four names listed after (and four in my spreadsheet). Just wanted to know if we have another extra vote mechanic happening like Day 1.

EagleFan 05-10-2017 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle (Post 3159813)
Is that 5 for Abe correct? There's four names listed after (and four in my spreadsheet). Just wanted to know if we have another extra vote mechanic happening like Day 1.


Total is correct.

britrock88 05-10-2017 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle (Post 3159813)
Is that 5 for Abe correct? There's four names listed after (and four in my spreadsheet). Just wanted to know if we have another extra vote mechanic happening like Day 1.


Bhlloy has the extra vote, it would appear.

britrock88 05-10-2017 09:22 PM

My apologies for not getting back before lunch.

Abe Sargent 05-10-2017 09:24 PM

Sorry I just got back from work! It's been rough today. Lots of extra stuff, I thought Id be back before now. Let me go get caught up and I';ll talk to you later.

mauchow 05-10-2017 09:25 PM

That was a nice result. Nice job whoever duked it.

Telle 05-10-2017 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159816)
Bhlloy has the extra vote, it would appear.


fontisian is also a possibility.. both were on the extra vote receiver both days. But then we also have to wonder whether the mechanic is a double vote for someone, which is pretty easy to ferret out over time.. or is it that somebody gets to place any two votes and they don't have to be on the same player. Obviously though that whoever it is is a villager, since wolves received the extra vote both days.

JAG 05-10-2017 09:35 PM

Not to get paranoid, but with the BG dead, we have to concern ourselves with a possible convert based on the result. Still are other possibilities, another character interaction. Missed NK seems unlikely.

Abe Sargent 05-10-2017 09:36 PM

Whoa!

That is just an unbelievable day there. I was the top voter getter, then we get it duked to another and it's another Wolf? Holy crap!

Telle 05-10-2017 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG (Post 3159823)
Not to get paranoid, but with the BG dead, we have to concern ourselves with a possible convert based on the result. Still are other possibilities, another character interaction. Missed NK seems unlikely.


So by "the result" you mean the lack of a night kill, not the vote and subsequent lynch?

Abe Sargent 05-10-2017 09:38 PM

Man we are doing well. Two wolves in two days in two lynches? That's pretty sexy.

fontisian 05-10-2017 09:40 PM

I'm pretty sure I'm the double voter.

EagleFan 05-10-2017 09:40 PM

Signing off for the night, time to get ready for bed and try to watch as much of this game seven as I can.

Abe Sargent 05-10-2017 09:43 PM

I'd like to get some discussion on what you think this role does:

Potsie Weber - An outcast with a big heart. At least that is how he appears to everyone, the truth is much darker...

Based on this role, what do you think it does for folks?

Thoughts?

fontisian 05-10-2017 09:43 PM

If Vinton's powers were used up, he should probably claim and get cleared?

As previously noted, cheek is not aligned with Autumn aand is therefore town, and mau and telle are still town, heh. Will have to reread the day for more conclusions. (Also, both wolves have tried to kill me, so I'm town, thanks.)

fontisian 05-10-2017 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent (Post 3159831)
I'd like to get some discussion on what you think this role does:

Potsie Weber - An outcast with a big heart. At least that is how he appears to everyone, the truth is much darker...

Based on this role, what do you think it does for folks?

Thoughts?

Oohhhh, that makes sense. Abe is town. Sorry dude, thought it was +ev play.

fontisian 05-10-2017 09:46 PM

If you want to do the thing, I can lay out a comprehensive case for you being town.

As for Potsie, I'd point out that if you were a wolf captain, would you draft a role that could do nothing?

JAG 05-10-2017 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle (Post 3159827)
So by "the result" you mean the lack of a night kill, not the vote and subsequent lynch?


The lack of night kill. The lynch result looked like a duke, by the role that might not know what it can do.

fontisian 05-10-2017 09:51 PM

1) cheekimonk
2) Autumn - Larry Dallas; wolf draftee with seduction ability (day two lynch)
3) JAG
4) Abe Sargent
5) tarcone
6) britrock88
7) The Jackal - Natalie Green; wolf leader with brutal (day one lynch)
8) bhlloy
9) Chief Rum - Les Nessman, villager with follow ability (day one brutal)
10) Telle
11) Julio Riddols - Rosalin Russel, villager, bodyguard (night one kill)
12) mauchow
13) fontisian

I'm town, Abe is town, mau is town, telle is town, cheeki is probably town.

That leaves JAG, tarcone, brit, and bhlloy. Bhlloy gets some credit for being on Jackal d1. Going in for a reread with this poe.

fontisian 05-10-2017 09:51 PM

I think if the duke is in JAG, tarcone, brit and bhlloy they should claim. If not, they should not.

Abe Sargent 05-10-2017 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 3159834)
If you want to do the thing, I can lay out a comprehensive case for you being town.

As for Potsie, I'd point out that if you were a wolf captain, would you draft a role that could do nothing?


I'm good for now. We'll see how the day develops. Thanks though!:)


My trust list includes mau, Telle, and bhlloy. Those are my major players. And right now, I think it's fair to give fontisian the benefit of the doubt, given what we've seen this evening. Autumn was the first to vote for her, for example, so I'm moving her off my radar too.

Had I been here during the day, and saw the heat I had, well, you know. But i left with one vote and came back post-lynch. So sorry team!

Someone is going to have a hell of a duke story after this thing.

Abe Sargent 05-10-2017 09:55 PM

I am heading away for a while. I still have to apply for jobs. My job here at SHC ends next month on June 2, so I like to apply for three jobs a day in Higher Ed.

bhlloy 05-10-2017 09:56 PM

So 2 of the first 4 votes on Jackal day 1 were wolves including the one that got things moving - that's pretty damn ballsy

I do wonder (worry) if we're not playing anything close to a traditional ruleset here.

fontisian 05-10-2017 09:56 PM

"Larry Dallas - The consummate playboy, always looking to get lucky. He may choose someone each night to seduce, this will prevent that person from performing any actions."

Looks like Jackal went for a pretty traditional wolf role.

fontisian 05-10-2017 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3159840)
So 2 of the first 4 votes on Jackal day 1 were wolves including the one that got things moving - that's pretty damn ballsy

I do wonder (worry) if we're not playing anything close to a traditional ruleset here.

2 of the first 4?

bhlloy 05-10-2017 10:01 PM

Sorry, I was working on a theory and got way ahead of myself. Obviously Jackal didn't vote for himself.

Might as well go ahead and throw out the theory, starting to look at Brit as a possible wolf. Will flesh out what I'm talking about in a bit

Telle 05-10-2017 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3159843)
Sorry, I was working on a theory and got way ahead of myself. Obviously Jackal didn't vote for himself.

Might as well go ahead and throw out the theory, starting to look at Brit as a possible wolf. Will flesh out what I'm talking about in a bit


Or you just made a major slip-up. Looks like you were the second vote on Jackal (not counting fontisian's serial vote and unvote posts).

bhlloy 05-10-2017 10:11 PM

That would be an epic slip up, yes

Telle 05-10-2017 10:12 PM

Not the first huge slip-up by a wolf this game? :)

bhlloy 05-10-2017 10:16 PM

So... I think the plan all along was to have the wolves place votes on each other day 1 to build up trust later in the game. Autumn starts the voting and accusation on Jackal but then moves off when it looks like it might be a Jackal runaway.

Jackal switches to brit late, but then right at deadline when it looks like it's close and one of them is in danger of being lynched is forced to move it to Mau, which apparently saved them both. Brit stays on jackal as apparently

Also in #478 he's laying the groundwork for people staying away from Autumn, at a strange point in the game to do it

bhlloy 05-10-2017 10:16 PM

Ha, I'm as villager as they come unfortunately, although I fully expect to get heat tomorrow. Trying to play WW and watch the Ducks lose another game 7 at the same time.

Somebody else has piqued my interest however....

bhlloy 05-10-2017 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 3159829)
I'm pretty sure I'm the double voter.


Care to expand on this?

fontisian 05-10-2017 10:20 PM

Vote Britrock

fontisian 05-10-2017 10:21 PM

Uh, not really bhlloy. I mean, it could be you, it just kind of fits with my role and I have no ability that I know of yet, so, shrug.

I have a long thing about why Brit is the last one, but it'll take me a little bit to put together. Expect it in like 3 hours, because I have to do some other things in the meantime.

Telle 05-10-2017 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 3159854)
Uh, not really bhlloy. I mean, it could be you, it just kind of fits with my role and I have no ability that I know of yet, so, shrug.

I have a long thing about why Brit is the last one, but it'll take me a little bit to put together. Expect it in like 3 hours, because I have to do some other things in the meantime.


Unfortunately though, even if you are the double-voter that doesn't necessarily clear you since it seems likely that you did mean your vote for mauchow in post #368 that wasn't counted and thus you wouldn't have known that you were actually voting double for Jackal. And Day 2 we don't know yet if who you voted for was a villager or a wolf.

You said something earlier about how you were obviously a villager because of the wolves trying to kill you. Can you explain that further?

bhlloy 05-10-2017 10:30 PM

Yeah I'm very interested to see fonts thinking on all the people she's cleared as well as Brit, even though I think I'm probably on the same page

fontisian 05-10-2017 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159269)
We've spent some time discussing voting mechanics. JR (posts 95-99) and Font (posts 101-108) had the most interesting sequences of votes on D0. It's hard to tease apart the role that our long dormancy will play in producing errant votes from the potential misdirection that could be caused.

Now that we're in D1, JAG has also picked up on Font's game of trying to block Klink's power (with the added efficacy that JAG's role is already public). I'm not sure what Font's role is, and what would motivate her to self-sacrifice to occupy Klink. But it's interesting to note that at least two players have concluded that they see Klink's power as something likelier to be used for evil.

Remember also that the team captains put in priority lists for roles--I'm not sure it's a certainty that Klink ends up on Team Bad. There are a lot of mechanics that EF's keeping under wraps (presumably for balance and intrigue purposes). For instance, how large are the respective teams? Abe has assumed that Team Bad totals 3 in an earlier post; we've also had a question about whether our Neutral could draft.

1. This is more summation than analysis from brit, which is a pretty common wolf way of addressing the thread.

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159281)
Nice catch. Cultist-type role, you wonder? It's such low-hanging fruit, and the suggestion goes against typical WW setups.

This is a response to Autumn calling out Jackal. It gives Autumn town cred and makes people less likely to vote Jackal, imo. Not a good look.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle (Post 3159285)
He means that if you're a villager you should already know if villagers get to PM and not need to be pondering it "out loud" in the game.

Telle is so town.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3159304)
I think if I was wolf captain my first pick would be Skippy - not only going to scan as villager but breaks the seer scans for the rest of the game.

In fact, I'd be willing to bet my strategy would be to draft that person and then try to draw a scan on day 1

I can't see bhlloy being this open about drafting strategy if he were a wolf.

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159343)
The more interesting question to me is what this might imply about Font's role. Her play doesn't strike me as unusual for her--she's a thoughtful and proactive villager, and an equally active/distracting wolf (relying on long-ago impressions here).

Anyway, her willingness to role-block Klink suggests that she doesn't mind having Klink--who may be likelier than the average role to be Bad--knowing her role. It could be that she's in a role with seemingly pedestrian power. It could be that she's seeking identification as a fellow Bad. I dunno.

Quoting this because brit brings up some decent reasons to not vote me, and does later.

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159346)
Focusing just on the first part of this, as I'm fairly confident we'll all be thinking about Jackal until lynch.

13 players in the game.
1 neutral, for my money.
We're looking at 9-3-1 as our likeliest distribution, I think. I could see a +/- of 1 depending on the relative power of the roles in play.



Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159347)
Unvote Telle
Vote The Jackal

It's interesting that brit seems more resigned to a Jackal lynch here (I'm fairly confident we'll all be thinking about Jackal until lynch.) than actually excited about killing a wolf. Imo, I think wolf!brit would be at the point where he was assuming Jackal is going to die that Day or the next, and he wants cred from it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159348)
Applying some pressure. Telle, I've taken my cursor off you, but grace us with a vote, would you? :)

The reasoning for the vote itself is super weak and leaves him an out if he wants to vote elsewhere.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle (Post 3159353)
Ok, I'm going with fontisian. Mostly because I don't want to bandwagon on The Jackal.

Have we speculated yet on whether or not fontisian might actually BE Klink? All that voting could just be a distraction. She can't vote for herself, so it wouldn't diminish her ability. But then there's still the question of would Klink be a villager or a wolf?

Well sorry to vote and run, but as I mentioned just previously I may not be around again before deadline.

Telle is so town. Very few wolves are like "yeah, I don't want to wagon my partner."

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159363)
My issue with your reaction here is that I'm noticing the converse of omgusing--you're complimenting JR's approach which happens not to implicate you. Could be an attempt to build trust across team lines.

I don't have a meta on Telle--he hasn't posted on the forum in 4.5 years before this game, and hadn't played any WW for a year before that, which takes us back to the beginning of my time here. Sorry.

The beginning of brit's push on me. I don't like it, but that could be personal bias.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 3159438)
VOTE BRITROCK


Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 3159447)
I feel like Jackal's idea about a villager team is unlikely, but it feels like what he was really saying. His defense has felt earnest and not panicked, so I'm thinking I will move elsewhere.

The case for font seems like typical D1 stuff, but actually based on D0 stuff before alignment, so I feel like it's not strong.

Brit's posts feel solid, doing some real work.

Mauchow's post below:



pings me a bit as being one of those "too vague to mean anything but I said something" posts. Tarcone on the other hand hasn't said anything. So I'd rather vote mauchow than Tarcone.

Chief hasn't put a lot up today but what's there is solid.

Leads me with mauchow so far, who has no votes. blah.

Chief votes brit and Autumn is immediately there to defend. Notice the brit is the best person Autumn could go on at this point to save Jackal, but he instead tried to start a wagon on someone with no votes.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 3159449)
unvote
vote mauchow


Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent (Post 3159453)
Mauchow has 24 posts in this thread. I don't think that's a lot of noise for nothing. I don't get that at all.

This is really nice from Abe, actually, and backs up him being town.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal (Post 3159470)
vote britrock88

As Jackal gets closer to dying and Autumn got rid of some of his cred, Jackal moves to distance from brit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 3159494)
What is the case for Brit? I really liked his posts when I looked back, so if it's him or Mau, I'm going Mau.

Another defense from Autumn for brit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle (Post 3159546)
Well while obviously I want everyone to know I'm a village.. do you think I don't have enough personal integrity to point out a major mistake like that if it benefited me to keep quiet?

Telle is so town.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG (Post 3159587)
Great result with knocking off the wolf leader with the first vote. I talked myself out of his comment being such an obvious slip up...oops.

Kind of bleh from JAG, but the tone is better than Autumn's, imo. Also, his role doesn't fit with the other one Jackal recruited.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 3159592)
Trying to look at voting movements. At this moment Jackal and Font are tied for the lead with three, Brit has two. Jackal unvotes Font and votes Brit, switching that to a 3-3 Jackal-Brit lead.

Autumn starts his summation of the day 1 votes by talking about the things that look best for brit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 3159602)
Sorry for all the posts, but it helped me to process what happened there, and not to have to flip back forever.

At this point I am wondering whether Jackal wasn't protecting Font. He moved off of Font in a way that didn't help his chances at all, but just made it a Brit-Jackal tie instead. And then Font unvotes Jackal and votes Mau, which effectively puts Brit in the lead without the two ganging up on Britrock. If there were two wolves in the mix, this makes sense. If not, I'm not sure why Jackal doesn't just stick with Font.

Autumn emphasizes that I'm scummy coming out of the votes and postulates that Jackal voted brit to protect me. Again, this is the most positive possible interpretation for brit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159639)
Autumn feels very Good to me.

Brit also defends Autumn, though that could be a town being pocketed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159637)
My overarching observations with last night's deadline activity, by character involved:

- Jackal: unsurprisingly tried to self-save at the deadline, at Mau's expense. The flip from Font to Brit a half-hour earlier is a thing to note (I won't make anything more of it, though).

- Mau: appeared to put Brit 2 up on Jackal/Font/Mau at 9:48. Vacillated between Brit and Jackal at the deadline, and not in a way that accomplished much.

- Font: placed the vote that didn't stick at 9:34, switching from Jackal to Mau. (I'm not convinced anything nefarious was at play; however, there is not only the move off Jackal to justify, but also the confusion in the thread that resulted from the formatting issue. Should we keep overlooking this?) Finally, she checked out at 9:42.

- Brit: AFK, with a vote hanging on Jackal throughout.

This is just weird, with brit speaking in the first person. It's very similar to what Autumn wrote up.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG (Post 3159654)
Brit and Autumn, appreciate the work you put in.

Ew. I mean, JAG probably isn't that obvious? Right?

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3159725)
I've had that thought as well, FWIW

Font is playing the strangest game I've ever seen, screaming cultist or some hidden win mechanism to me

Would like bhlloy to explain this at one point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3159729)
Hmm, my Autumn as a possible wolf sensor is tingling...

Good from bhlloy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 3159738)
Finished reading Bhlloy. Day 1 was almost all rule speculation. But has been active today with some thoughts on votes. However, very broad. Says initially Font and Mau should be the focus, agrees with JAG about considering Abe, and then also suggests considering cheeki and tarcone for being quiet. And now me ;-) Quite a spread, though he put a vote early today.

Just saving this quote, as it may be relevant latter.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheekimonk (Post 3159760)
unvote font
vote Autumn


Quote:

Originally Posted by cheekimonk (Post 3159759)
I'm not comfy sticking with font. I'm not sure about Abe, but I like the call earlier on Autumn jumping off Jackal...

Good for cheeki.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG (Post 3159809)
Well that was an impressive play by Autumn, gotta give him credit.

Ew, but again, probably town?


Yeah, that's not very concise, but I think there's reason to clear everyone except brit and tarcone, and brit has a lot of interactions with Autumn and Jackal against him.

cheekimonk 05-10-2017 11:25 PM

I am Vinton Harper. I wasn't 100% certain about Autumn, but I was certain enough. I'm convinced the wolves bussed Jackal, which means they're scrambling at this point. That was my one-shot duke ability.

fontisian 05-10-2017 11:34 PM

Nice.

Abe Sargent 05-11-2017 12:02 AM

Alright, three jobs applied for. Got an interview tomorrow with PSU so we'll see how that goes too.

Abe Sargent 05-11-2017 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheekimonk (Post 3159860)
I am Vinton Harper. I wasn't 100% certain about Autumn, but I was certain enough. I'm convinced the wolves bussed Jackal, which means they're scrambling at this point. That was my one-shot duke ability.


It was a great duke move from where I'm sitting. Nicely done! One of my top five Dukes I've seen!

Abe Sargent 05-11-2017 12:07 AM

That is an intimidating set of analysis font. I gotta go back and reread it a few times.

bhlloy 05-11-2017 12:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 3159859)


Would like bhlloy to explain this at one point.



Just felt (like some others did) that you'd had a lot of invalid votes including day 0 and a bit of bouncing around, which makes me wonder if you didn't land a role with some specific goals around it. You also voted CR when he was already out of the game. Maybe that feeling is dropping a bit now... but still I'm a little unsure.

Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 3159859)

Good from bhlloy.



I'll go into this in more detail, because I think it's the most relevant thing that is pinging me right now. It was very noticable to me that Autumn was going to be absent or was absent for most of the day, and when he started to get a bit of heat he suddenly appeared in thread with a defense. Either he was monitoring the thread but not posting or he got summoned by someone because he was getting some shade thrown his way.

Now it's interesting to note the people posting right around that time were mau and JAG. I don't think either of those are great wolf candidates, but that doesn't mean that there wasn't a silent wolf reading the thread who got him online. Either way at the time, it just pinged me as really wolfy. I'm kicking myself from not going Autumn on the vote but I just didn't think he'd be that blatant on day 1 starting a run on a fellow wolf.

bhlloy 05-11-2017 12:39 AM

I really really hope tarcone wasn't a wolf, otherwise that's going to kill the game

bhlloy 05-11-2017 12:56 AM

I also think Autumn's vote on Abe makes Abe look a little better than I'd previously thought, although I'd have to go back and look at what kind of a chance he had to move it without putting himself in danger.

And if you think Abe is looking better and you believe him that he didn't get online until after the vote, it's worth noting the only other person who didn't move off a dead vote on fontisian was... britrock

bhlloy 05-11-2017 12:56 AM

vote britrock

Abe Sargent 05-11-2017 01:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3159873)
I also think Autumn's vote on Abe makes Abe look a little better than I'd previously thought, although I'd have to go back and look at what kind of a chance he had to move it without putting himself in danger.

And if you think Abe is looking better and you believe him that he didn't get online until after the vote, it's worth noting the only other person who didn't move off a dead vote on fontisian was... britrock


Heya!

So it's been a while since we've all played together and such. Which is great!

So a quick little thing about me. I believe it's unethical to lie about personal life stuff in WW. Anything everyone says is suspect in regards to game of WW, but real world stuff isn't really in that same genre, you know?

JAG 05-11-2017 04:55 AM

Yes font, that would be a comment for the ages if I praised the wolves for their thread analysis.

JAG 05-11-2017 05:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 3159455)
I actually feel decent about that vote, looking back. I feel like the more active players in thread are all sounding good to me, making good points and grappling with the game. I suspect our wolves are among the quieter folk.


Reading back over D1 deadline stuff, there's this comment from Autumn, which would encourage people to avoid people like Brit, who had just gotten his second vote from CR. Abe then called him out for saying mau was quiet.

JAG 05-11-2017 05:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 3159451)
Putting that there for the moment. I'm going to keep looking to see if there's anyone else I'd rather target, but so far I'm not big on any of the lead vote getters.


Another comment that would like to see people move from Jackal, font, and brit. (maybe I'll start grabbing all the comments in one thread)

JAG 05-11-2017 05:14 AM

I also remembered Brit's comment about Autumn feeling very good making me wonder if he was our seer trying to drop a hint. Well, that's obviously not the case.

JAG 05-11-2017 05:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG (Post 3159197)
No strong reason to vote brit, just would like to see him more engaged, if his work allows.

Is there merit in trying to suss out which roles a wolf captain or villager captain might go towards? For me, Larry Dallas stands out as one I'd really like to have as a wolf to have a chance to short-circuit the seer / BG / role that follows someone else, or at least hit a village role with a 100% guarantee whereas if they were on the village side, it would be of much less use, except maybe late in the game. A wolf captain might've wanted to deny the village a helpful role like Les Nessman also (that one would probably be high on both lists). And some of the roles have very unclear abilities, so this may not be so useful.

For the village captain out there, I'm on your side, you might want to consider what other roles you had higher than mine on your priority list as a possible bit of info whether they are good or not. Without giving yourself away of course. :)

I'll try and pop on over lunch, it's going to be another long day for me though.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 3159245)
My thoughts on the roles...


Larry Dallas - Typical role blocker. Probably not a high priority for wolves.

Terri Alden I'm presuming from the coloring is neutral, did EF say the neutral got to draft anyone? Could kill a wolf, so good to keep around if we can.

So Burns can scan but not reveal his scans, is that everyone's take? But can make a one-time kill. So we want to keep him alive long enough to find a wolf. Or a supposed one, since his scan isn't 100%

Natalie - I assume the night kill is her special move.

Skippy - Adds to the unreliability of scans, meaning we need to focus on other intelligence.

Klink - Might be a high target for both teams to draft.

Nessman - Not clear how much detail Les gets from following someone. Typically would just be that they had a night action. Again, an unreliable one, so not too much use.

Roz - Some type of bodyguard, high priority draft for either side really, but more likely villagers.

Harper - completely mystery. Probably not a wolf priority.

Potsie Weber seems worrisome, maybe a vigilante, with a one-time kill? Someone the wolves might try to draft.

Both Screech and Bud say "always trying to fit in", which seems important somehow. Another role blocker? But unreliable.

Not sure what Bud's writeup would mean. Unfortunately, since I was hoping we'd find a role we could use to confirm allegiance somehow.

Wayne Arnold - moves a vote I assume?

Mel Sharples - probably a duke role

Murdock - Again the phrase "loyal". Does this mean that we have a conversion mechanic at play?


If I had to guess what the wolves might have prioritized, I'd say Klink, Potsie, Mel and Wayne. In a small game controlling even one vote could be a game changer, as would an extra kill, and knowing roles would be very helpful for the wolves. Though thinking on the second level, captain might have mixed it up to throw us off the path. How many wolves do we think? Two or three? If there's a possibility of conversion, which I think is likely, probably just two.


Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159369)
Okay. Role analysis (asterisks for roles with apparent night actions):

Larry Dallas* - role-blocker; probably town
Terri Alden* - neutral booby-trap (I've forgotten all the WW role jargon); what's her WC?
Major Burns* - flawed seer with a one-time NK; Good captain
Natalie Green* - (brutal?) wolf with NK; Bad captain
Skippy Handelman - scan-wrecker; more valuable as Bad?
Colonel Klink - role-learner, which seems alignment-neutral
Les Nessman* - flawed spy; leans Good, IMO
Roz Russell* - BG of some kind
Vinton Harper - village idiot?
Potsie Weber - hunter? another neutral role???
Screech Powers* - action-frustrater; leans Bad
Bud Bundy - another neutral role???
Wayne Arnold* - action-redirecter, cunning?; leans Bad
Mel Sharples - mayor? alpha wolf?
Jeffrey Murdock - ?

Extra ???s for possible neutrals because I really think there's only one.

...Man, I forgot how vague some of these were.


I also find this interesting, after Autumn came up as Larry Dallas and wolf.

JAG 05-11-2017 05:59 AM

Font makes a number of points regarding Brit. Post 456 where as she points out Autumn starts by highlighting the strongest point not to vote for Brit is particularly bad.

I also read back over bholly d1 and d2. He has some interactions with Autumn, but nothing that feels like coordination or either trying to protect each other. He even said his Autumn wolf sensors were tingling D2.

So yeah, pretty convinced Brit looks bad here.

JAG 05-11-2017 05:59 AM

Vote Brit

JAG 05-11-2017 06:03 AM

I haven't had a great run the past couple days, so if people want I'm happy to talk about my role ability and use it as directed by those who have done better.

cheekimonk 05-11-2017 07:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG (Post 3159879)
I also remembered Brit's comment about Autumn feeling very good making me wonder if he was our seer trying to drop a hint. Well, that's obviously not the case.


Well...all of the seer roles have some uncertainty about them:

Burns: paranoid = scans may not always be accurate
Skippy: if scanned, all other scans by scanner will result in opposite read

So there could have been an unreliable read on Autumn, or the seer (Burns) could have scanned Skippy N0 then Autumn N1 which would show Autumn as town.

That's an unlikely series of events so I'm not defending brit by any means. Just wanted to tug the reins on thinking this was definitive.

cheekimonk 05-11-2017 07:27 AM

Sorry: "the seer role..."

Was including Skippy's possible impact on seer but there is just one seer.

cheekimonk 05-11-2017 07:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent (Post 3159863)
Alright, three jobs applied for. Got an interview tomorrow with PSU so we'll see how that goes too.


Congrats, Abe!

cheekimonk 05-11-2017 07:46 AM

JAG and font make compelling enough cases for me to land an initial vote. Thanks for the leg work in digging up posts!

cheekimonk 05-11-2017 07:46 AM

vote brit

JAG 05-11-2017 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheekimonk (Post 3159888)
Well...all of the seer roles have some uncertainty about them:

Burns: paranoid = scans may not always be accurate
Skippy: if scanned, all other scans by scanner will result in opposite read

So there could have been an unreliable read on Autumn, or the seer (Burns) could have scanned Skippy N0 then Autumn N1 which would show Autumn as town.

That's an unlikely series of events so I'm not defending brit by any means. Just wanted to tug the reins on thinking this was definitive.


Good points.

Abe Sargent 05-11-2017 09:29 AM

Morning all! Let's get caught up

mauchow 05-11-2017 09:30 AM

Keep tarcone alive still?

britrock88 05-11-2017 09:33 AM

Morning, thread! We've got a runaway on our hands!

Abe Sargent 05-11-2017 09:34 AM

I'd like to keep Tarcone alive because she's not been around for a long time, but it;s Day 3, time to start kickign the tires of the quieter people.

britrock88 05-11-2017 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle (Post 3159821)
fontisian is also a possibility.. both were on the extra vote receiver both days. But then we also have to wonder whether the mechanic is a double vote for someone, which is pretty easy to ferret out over time.. or is it that somebody gets to place any two votes and they don't have to be on the same player. Obviously though that whoever it is is a villager, since wolves received the extra vote both days.


Re: the extra vote: compare post 409 with the initial deadline tally you quoted in post 413. The extra vote was on Jackal when only Bhlloy and myself were included. I've already disclaimed the extra-vote power.

Then there's this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 3159829)
I'm pretty sure I'm the double voter.


This is the reason for just about my last bit of suspicion toward Font. I'll circle back to Telle's good point that it may be a slightly different mechanic at play than doubling the player's deadline vote--it could be a secretly assigned extra vote, it could stick to the first person voted on that day, so on.

britrock88 05-11-2017 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 3159859)
Nice, long analysis post


Thanks for this. I agree that I look to be pretty well entangled with Autumn. There are a couple of instances where you make a statement and a passing reference to time, though, where the time that lapsed was rather important. (The run-up to the D1 lynch sticks out in my mind.)

britrock88 05-11-2017 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheekimonk (Post 3159860)
I am Vinton Harper. I wasn't 100% certain about Autumn, but I was certain enough. I'm convinced the wolves bussed Jackal, which means they're scrambling at this point. That was my one-shot duke ability.


:bowdown:

britrock88 05-11-2017 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3159873)
I also think Autumn's vote on Abe makes Abe look a little better than I'd previously thought, although I'd have to go back and look at what kind of a chance he had to move it without putting himself in danger.

And if you think Abe is looking better and you believe him that he didn't get online until after the vote, it's worth noting the only other person who didn't move off a dead vote on fontisian was... britrock


I concur that the quiet approach to D2 deadline likely suggests that we had Goods in the running.

britrock88 05-11-2017 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG (Post 3159876)
Yes font, that would be a comment for the ages if I praised the wolves for their thread analysis.


Fortunately, you're only half-right. ;)

Abe Sargent 05-11-2017 09:42 AM

I know a lot of you have been doing vote analysis quite ably. Good job!

I wanted to do some night analysis

Here's what we know:

N1 - One death, it was the BG
N2 - No deaths

Now, we know that Autumn had the playboy interferer thing going. Taking out the BG on N1 is tough. Either Julio was targeted or was guarding the target, and in some rules sets, I've seen the BG die when that happens, but note an interesting set of words used in the N1 kill, that he died with a smile on his face happy. Could that have been Dallas the playboy either interfering with his BG ness to get him killed or maybe even the killer? Someone else? Or was it just GM EF flowery language.


I suspect the N1 language of happiness fits Dallas as the killer, now that we know that role, so watch future night kills for language to see if they connect up.

On N2, we have no kills or anything in thread. I'd love to hear more about what happened.

And what

Abe Sargent 05-11-2017 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 3159547)
You all get a good night's sleep on your cardboard slabs and wake up refreshed and with an overwhelming feeling of blood-lust. Who will be next?

As you all gather you notice that Julio Riddols is nowhere in site. You find his remains and see that he seemed to die with a smile on his face.

As you look closer you see that he is not a he at all. This was Rosalind Russell, essentially your high draft pick bodyguard.

This has been a disturbing turn of events.


Here is the N1 results, and I bolded the interesting part. At teh time, I thought it was just flowery language, but now that we know Autumn;s role, it seems to connect,.

britrock88 05-11-2017 09:49 AM

This is a tough spot. I'm on my way to being run up (all 4 votes on me thus far), and I'm struggling to offer a good alternative to myself for lynch today. I keep thinking that maybe someone in the talented trio of JAG, Font, and Bhlloy could be our last Bad (given that several others are meta-cleared), but they all seem to be playing good games.

britrock88 05-11-2017 09:50 AM

So, for the sake of Good having full information, I'll come out with my special knowledge, let you process that, and then, presuming that I still die (because I don't expect this to exonerate me), use today's discussion to inform tomorrow's discussion.

Abe Sargent 05-11-2017 09:50 AM

Alright, I'm off, going to be away for a few hours, may not be back until 3:00 ish

britrock88 05-11-2017 09:54 AM

I'm Wayne Arnold, the bully. I'm town (even as my analysis suggested the role would likely be Bad--I was surprised I ended up Good). My power is to redirect a player's night action to a player of my choosing.

As deadline approached on D1, my vote was on Jackal, but I was carrying a suspicion of Font (which led to my D2 vote on her). So I put in the order to redirect Font's night action to JAG (whom I have lingering gut suspicions of; see above).

On D2, I didn't use my power at all, because it actually seems rather chaotic and probably not useful to the village, on net.

Now, with Font suggesting she may have the extra vote, I'm concerned she doesn't have a night action that she would have seen redirected to JAG. I'm also concerned that if she's the remaining Bad (low odds, but still), she'll refute my claim in any case.

That's what I have.

britrock88 05-11-2017 09:54 AM

vote JAG

britrock88 05-11-2017 09:55 AM

Not going on much other than a relative downtick in involvement/analysis, even as JAG has said that he's been fairly busy IRL.

britrock88 05-11-2017 09:56 AM

For the village's sake, I'd rather that some viable alternative candidate be put forward. If we tunnel on me, we won't like the result and the lack of illumination conversation/vote history that we get moving forward.

JAG 05-11-2017 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159925)
Not going on much other than a relative downtick in involvement/analysis, even as JAG has said that he's been fairly busy IRL.


In fact if you read back, my involvement ramped up from the beginning of the week when auditors were here. With all the info available from the past two days, this does not seem like a great case for voting me (granted I might be a bit biased here...)

JAG 05-11-2017 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159926)
For the village's sake, I'd rather that some viable alternative candidate be put forward. If we tunnel on me, we won't like the result and the lack of illumination conversation/vote history that we get moving forward.


Because the game will be over?

Maybe EF will make us have to eliminate the neutral role for bonus credit.

JAG 05-11-2017 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent (Post 3159919)
Here is the N1 results, and I bolded the interesting part. At teh time, I thought it was just flowery language, but now that we know Autumn;s role, it seems to connect,.


By the way, this was a good catch Abe. I didn't pay much attention to the write up. I'm not sure we can do much with the info though.

britrock88 05-11-2017 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG (Post 3159934)
In fact if you read back, my involvement ramped up from the beginning of the week when auditors were here. With all the info available from the past two days, this does not seem like a great case for voting me (granted I might be a bit biased here...)


I'm a little frazzled for having read Autumn so incorrectly. But then, you gave him a tip-of-the-hat for his play, so... :p

britrock88 05-11-2017 10:52 AM

(I would really hope that if Tarc is the last Bad, and hasn't posted in >48 hours, that EF would just call the game for Good.)

britrock88 05-11-2017 10:53 AM

JAG, where would you vote next if I were off the table?

bhlloy 05-11-2017 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent (Post 3159918)
I know a lot of you have been doing vote analysis quite ably. Good job!

I wanted to do some night analysis

Here's what we know:

N1 - One death, it was the BG
N2 - No deaths

Now, we know that Autumn had the playboy interferer thing going. Taking out the BG on N1 is tough. Either Julio was targeted or was guarding the target, and in some rules sets, I've seen the BG die when that happens, but note an interesting set of words used in the N1 kill, that he died with a smile on his face happy. Could that have been Dallas the playboy either interfering with his BG ness to get him killed or maybe even the killer? Someone else? Or was it just GM EF flowery language.


I suspect the N1 language of happiness fits Dallas as the killer, now that we know that role, so watch future night kills for language to see if they connect up.

On N2, we have no kills or anything in thread. I'd love to hear more about what happened.

And what


Yeah, I don't know what that means but like you say, the odds of the BG successfully protecting on N1 are pretty low

Also I don't think the N2 lack of kill is anything good for the village, as somebody (JAG?) already pointed out

I think we have to look at tarcone tomorrow, just for the integrity of the game. I'm happy with brit today but other than that I'm not sure where to look, other than the guy who is completely AWOL and could be anything.

Hmm, something did just occur to me. If tarcone is the third and final wolf, that could explain the lack of NK on day 2? Here's the list of order precedence:


Order of Night Actions
- Stealth/disguise orders (will be in place for the remaining steps)
- Watch/follow orders (will be in place for the remaining steps)
- Protection orders
- Village attack orders
- Wolf attack orders
- Scan orders


So if Autumn gets duked and tarcone is the last wolf but doesn't have a PM in, does that mean no NK? Or would Autumn's order still get executed? I have no idea how this works usually

bhlloy 05-11-2017 11:52 AM

Looking at that, it's also notable to me to see stealth/disguise orders - is that explicitly called out in anyone's character description? That's a new one to me

JAG 05-11-2017 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159942)
JAG, where would you vote next if I were off the table?


The only other person that stands out to me objectively is font, because she and Jackal voted each other D1 but then each backed off (and Jackal never voted her again despite that she would've been a good self-defense option), Autumn did not vote font D1 despite that being the most logical spot to defend Jackal, and Autumn voted her D2 but backed off later and he did not appear to be a strong consideration for her. Baaed on what bhlloy posted, tarcone as the last wolf and unable to do the NK due to inactivity is possible too, although if that's the case then the game is already over.

But based on some of font's posts after deadline, she seems to have something going on behind the scenes she can point to for being good that was semi-confirmed by another player. And she has made a pretty compelling case why certain players are good and why she has misgivings about you.

Abe Sargent 05-11-2017 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159941)
(I would really hope that if Tarc is the last Bad, and hasn't posted in >48 hours, that EF would just call the game for Good.)


Yeah, that would be hilarious otherwise.

Abe Sargent 05-11-2017 12:35 PM

For the Night 2 thing, in addition to a potential conversion or missed N2 order or something, there are a few roles still out there that could be playing havoc with this too, in addition to the BG:

Roles

Not all roles may be in the game.


Irwin "Skippy" Handelman - Always love-sick for anyone that looks his way. He has gotten over Mallory by latching on to anyone that looks his way. This means that anyone that looks his way cannot get rid of him. If he is scanned at night he will annoy the scanner so much that any subsequent scan by that player during the game will result in an opposite scan of what it would have been.


Samuel "Screech" Powers - The nerd of the group. Always the outcast. Always trying to fit in. May be a deviant but always a friendly one. Will try to date someone each night only to annoy them for the night. The problem is, he can be easily distracted and may stray from his original target because someone else smiled at him.

Bud Bundy - Grandmaster B to his friends. He will be the life of the party, in his own mind. Tries to fit in with the others but sticks to himself in reality. May develop abilities depending on his alignment.

Wayne Arnold - Always the bullying big brother. He will find someone to do his bidding.

Mel Sharples - Make no mistake, he is in charge.

Jeffrey Murdock - A very odd bird, yet loyal. He has many theories about life as we know it. Beware the giggle loop and the melty man.

But specially Screech, Murdock and skippy could be responsible for some night chaos, in addition to the roles we just don;t know a lot about, iek Bud.

bhlloy 05-11-2017 12:49 PM

Not sure skippy can do anything other than block/screw up a scan, also I don't read screech's powers as being able to block a NK either - isn't a NK action not a single action by a single player?

You may well be right, that's not the way I've been interpreting it however.

It's definitely possible that one of the other more vague roles has a BG like power out there somewhere too

Abe Sargent 05-11-2017 12:58 PM

I think the roles in this game generally have levels of vagueness attached to them that we get clarified in initial. I know mine does. So I'm not sure if Screech blocks anything, it just says he tries to date them and leaves them annoyed. Could be it blocks the person yo targeted from doing anything, wolf actions included. Could be it keeps that person from getting any information from their role instead, but otherwise can d it. Could just act like a witness and see what happened with the person being angry. Shoot, the angry person could wind up with the two votes the following day, we don't know.

But I suspect the first one is correct, that Screech interferes with night stuff, but not always. What and to what extent we just can;t tell from the description.

Abe Sargent 05-11-2017 01:06 PM

Vote britrock

Abe Sargent 05-11-2017 01:06 PM

I think the trust circle is in a good place with two wolves' history to go off. BR isn;t in a great place

JAG 05-11-2017 01:08 PM

If someone has a role that can prevent someone from taking night actions (assuming Brit is lying about his role / role abilities) and made use of it last night, that would be useful evidence to share.

JAG 05-11-2017 01:11 PM

Oh, I thought Brit was claiming that power, it was redirecting night abilities. Another night action blocking role would seem to overlap with the seducer role though.

Telle 05-11-2017 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88 (Post 3159912)
Re: the extra vote: compare post 409 with the initial deadline tally you quoted in post 413. The extra vote was on Jackal when only Bhlloy and myself were included. I've already disclaimed the extra-vote power.

Then there's this:



This is the reason for just about my last bit of suspicion toward Font. I'll circle back to Telle's good point that it may be a slightly different mechanic at play than doubling the player's deadline vote--it could be a secretly assigned extra vote, it could stick to the first person voted on that day, so on.


Huh.. I didn't catch that. Yeah Jackal has an extra vote on him (3 with only 2 voters) in the original final vote count that I show quoted in post 413. Probably makes the most sense that it's bhlloy then with the extra vote, unless it isn't a double vote and is instead a secret additional vote like I mentioned was a possibility.

Telle 05-11-2017 01:49 PM

Votes as of post #699:
5 britrock88 - fontisian 635, bhlloy 648, JAG 656, cheekimonk 662, Abe Sargent 695
1 JAG - britrock88 679

Yet to vote: tarcone, Telle, mauchow


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