(don't think we'd wanna)

So we can lie away then ;) JK, have a good night of fearless GM, or whatever you're called.

I was busy at work today and didn't feel like discussing the merits of Coldplay, and then went out for the evening. The fact that post count is used for any kind of vote analysis is pretty laughable with how many useless posts a number of people throw out there. While I agree that talking in the thread obviously helps people get a "read" on you, I don't think Abe's playlist has given us any deep insight into his motivations this game.

may and j23, are you SURE you aren't still evil? LIke have some leftover evil in you?

arg...MAU I mean.

J I was just trying to suggest who might not have been checking in. There was obviously a lot of BS talk today which I alluded to shortly after including myself. UTR would be a smart strategy for at least a couple bad guys this game though. We've done some UTR lynching lately but I think most of the voting is trending towards the talkative. Plus the more you make bad guys talk (not insinuating anyone on that list was bad) the more chances they have to slip up.

Sucks about hoops, we never got to see him in red tights

Well there's always you, Jackal.

But in general more posting is better. Very hard to read UTR people that slip by, even harder with less useful pointed vote histories.

But I'm sure people will start chiming in with non-coldplay related news tmw. At least we know there should only be one NK max next phase and there have been some seer scans.

My vote looks pretty bad, I can't begrudge some "hairy eyeballs" as autumn would say

Bedtime here

I am going to Metropolis !!! That is like Disney right?

I meant you could wear the red tights.

I'd agree that conversation actually about the game is helpful. More than half of what was posted today just makes it harder to go back and find the information about the game if the need arises. Perhaps it's just that I don't know the Coldplay-2face connection that everyone else seems to know.

Okay fair enough j23. No more coldplay. What jumps out at you? anything? Where are your thoughts?

Well after looking at things I just don't get a good vibe from CF. Maybe it is the all caps two face post, or the Hoops starting the run on him and hoops subsequent lynch, or his asking for me to vote for him and his voting for himself. Just strange behavior.

Vote CrimsonFox

Dola, I guess there was no flare for you Crimson, completely forgot about your request until right after I posted.

Tripe Dola, if there is some compelling reason to move I will move, but I feel fairly comfortable with this vote right now. Also looking into things more the Bug and Saldana votes don't look so bad right now unless we find out Zinto two face, which is possible, but not sure if I feel as confident that is the case. I will be on my phone all day tomorrow and have my NBDA meeting in the evening so I will post the voting tallies when I get home, probably just after the night kill. I will change vote and respond if I see something that I feel is intriguing.

sad. I need 37 pieces of flare to be satisfied.

hmmm I really hope the seer didn't waste a scan on hoops. Perhaps we should not be giving Twoface any more of these bright ideas.

Well that was a pretty sucky bunch of results then. I guess we should be happy there was no conversion. I guess Two-Face picked up on Danny's comment about Hoops being off (which was probably true) and took it to mean he might be a deranged citizen. Makes me think that there probably weren't any overt signals sent to Two-Face.

So Crimson - care to take us through what exactly you're hoping for with the capital letters business? I'm struggling to see any rhythm or reason to it myself.

I honestly doubt much can be read into voting record. Unless Two-Face was on the block at some stage there's not much you can say about it. Except the deranged will be voting for people who don't seem to be deranged, obviously (so you won't see them voting Crimson bada-boom-tishhhh).

I've been thinking and rethinking about you making this point and I've concluded that it probably means you're a villager.

If you're Two-Face then you could be signalling your followers to do what you describe but it's pretty clear that any vote/unvote on you is going to be ultra-suspicious.

I think you can make a case for you being Deranged and wanting to warn other Deranged people off of doing this.

Likliest is that you're a villager.

I wondering if the baddies vote Hoops or not. It seems likely that some people might think that Hoops was acting strange and connect that with him being a baddy so they'd want to steer clear of him. Then again if he's a villager then it's a golden opportunity to take out a good villager. If I were a baddy (and I'd thought things through properly) I think I wouldn't vote him and hope that 2-Face kills/converts him. But I'm not sure I'd think of that at the time. Normally I'd be suspicious of Hoops day one voters but I'm not sure that holds up in these circumstances.

i didnt see anything strange about hoops from yesterday. i think it is much more likely that two face simply eliminated a dangerous villager

Right now I see Lathum as a good bet for Two face

Corrupt people: mckerney, mauboy, and dzilla, possibly Danny

1st subset - people who always vote hoops first: Lathum, Saldana, , possibly sndvls (although I don't know him that well), Danny (although he varies, Chief Rum

Second subset - people that were verbally upset by the lynch results and bothered to type it in.

oh yeah add Tyrith to the 1st subset

like this post a lot and feel better about her being a villager because of it. Only one with a really valid reason spelled out for voting for me. Then again a longtime player could easily pull an autumn-like good excuse as a wolf to do anything. Still, giving her a pass another day.

in fact unsure of my lathum as twoface theory. Could be Lathum or Tyrith. Although I really like Tyrith's posts today. Really helpful. Then again he was one of the only ones. Maybe TOO helpful ;)

Hoops is an interesting kill. I have to imagine two face was going for someone they thought might be a corrupted citizen. This likely means that A. No one made it obvious they were a corrupted citizen an 2. I'd guess that two face wasn't even involved in the vote at all (meaning Zinto and Crimson are not two face.

Saldana is a villager I am pretty sure.

Third subest - weird / driveby voters. I didn't include any of Danny's thousands of votes because who knows what they could mean. Something seemed weird about him today. I mean weirder than the normal weird.


he came back tho after the vote was it?


he DID post again a little later then disappeared.



1 of his, what was it 4 posts?


Also very little posting and a good generic reason.


superdriverby vote. Was a little active earlier but really short in his replies and then no reply after this, nor reasoning for suddening following me and Zinto.



A signal ? countersignal? What was this? Surely you would think there would be more accusations following this vote. Some response. Some "Aha, I see." but nothing...



This is normal Chief shpiel. Usually it's Chief voting for a villager shpiel. I still don't think I've ever seen Chief as a wolf before (or for that matter vote for one ;) )



Zzzzzzzzzzzooooom


They don't do they...


Unless you trying to create one...which he helps do.


Hmmm...




HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM..... conveniently at 7:01.

I do indeed get that vibe.

Like this methodology a lot and this post.
I don't totally agree with its usefullness as yes chief you thought of it, but that doesn't mean anyone else did. And if you are removing yourself, then you can also remove me and look at the people that unvoted me.

We'll call them subset 4 - Bug, Tyrith, Jackal.

Now let's see, what two names here have come up in multiple subsets?

I actually came back before the vote and posted several times. I did not see any reason to move my vote, without any strong feelings for anyone at the time.

Will be looking in throughout the day and may get a post or two in around lunch, but my activity will be sparse until evening.

Yeah I really couldn't remember. Just remembered little short votes here and there with little explanation. Then again it's day 1

Please stop causing problems :)

What? What am I doing? :) All i'm doing is listening to the BEST MUSIC EVER and saying how the wolves are are yellow for not coming out and fighting in the open that's all. :)

It is an old-school FOFC phrase, dating back to jbmagic ... before your time, based on the 12/2009 join date. My bad, was the equivalent of making a reference to Slapshot around my nephew who is in high school. Have to know your audience when making wisecracks :)

I know it was a wisecrack and was wisecracking back. :)

Already more evaluation than normal on day 2. normslly my day 2 vote is another cipher, but looking at the bits of evaluation... (esp. Chief's) it looks like Cf's name should be high in the thought processes of today. Thus...
Vote CrimsonFox

CrimsonFox is in an awful lot of those combinations. He certainly is not a bad vote today.

I can't hear you over the Coldplay.

Really I should have left my crazy vote/unvote for D1 of this game, might've told us more. That's why I voted CF in the first place, just wanted to see what happened, but when nobody did anything I moved to Abe who had been vibing a bit off. But that was a poor read on my part.

I agree finding out about CF might clear a little up, but want to look over the unvoting also.

So you've narrowed the possible Two-Faces down to two candidates. Good work! Lets lynch one today and the other tomorrow and then the game will be over.

But Crimson keeps cropping up on the Two-Face side of Chief's unvote patterns, so you're kind of contradicting yourself there.

I'm willing to bet that the whole unvote thing is a blind alley. I'm also doubtful about how hard we should be chasing Two-Face rather than potential convertees. Seems like we have a much better chance of getting a deranged citizen and when we do we can try to follow a trail back to Two-Face. Trying to shoot straight for Two-Face is less likely to work but more likely to give Two-Face an idea of who the converted people are.

CF has some weird posts, but he's a good WW player and it doesn't make sense that he's so over the top. That being said, I don't understand his comments in this thread

Yeah, I guess to some degree I am, though just considering all pieces of evidence. The unvote thing may very well be a blind alley, especially since the corrupted citizens might want to play it safe since if two face is lynched they lose. Still, I don't think Crimson being in the voting is a bad thing at all as he could easily be a corrupted even if he's not two face.

When I was a sorceror recently I was very worried about voting for wolves. The deranged citizens are kind of like sorcerors. I think they'll be trying to settle in their minds who they think are villagers and then will chase them. Day one you have to pretty much hope for the best but after that you're going to be looking for superficially decent reasons for voting someone you don't think is a baddy. Makes me suspicious of people getting on the Crimson train today.

Then again, if he posts one more Coldplay video I'm nightfalling the bastard.

Wouldn't tell us a thing in terms of voting records if he is corruptible as no-one knows the fact. If he comes up bad then we can study his posts to see if we can find any signs (no matter how subtle) that he was attempting to signal Two-Face that he was corruptible. :)

I'm thinking more in terms of people voting him. Normally I'd see people voting Hoops on day one as more suspicious than average but I'm not sure in these circumstances.

But if we want to pursue Chief's line of thinking Danny has a couple of throwaway vote/unvotes yesterday that really had no chance of going anywhere. (mau and Commo) I'm not really sure I understood on first reading what the point of those votes was. So I shall look back again.

No, still don't understand the point of them. Anything you'd like to share about those votes Danny?

Now you're the one contradicting yourself :P.

Those were two people who had votes already and were not Abe or Zinto who I felt were villagers. I was hoping to get a different candidate in there. I bounced around until one would hopefully stick.

Or there is really five different Two Face's and I was trying to signal them all.

Vote CrimsonFox

seems to be forcing the issue with me given I have barely posted.

A cipher for you or a cipher for us? ;)

About to head into work, just a couple quick thoughts before I do.

Interesting you say this as I was the second on Zinto and never moved off. I did find your voting yesterday strange as well and was thinking of mentioning you today, but CrimsonFox just seems more out there.

As for trying to find two face, I agree that it will be hard, unless he was one of the candidates yesterday, which is what like a 15-20% chance we are better off going for any wolf lead, not just two face.

I do think voting records will help out the village in a few days however once we start connecting dots on who bad guys are, that is if both our forensic people are still alive.

We'll need more than one candidate for today, so I will get things started in that regard.

Vote Commo

Just going with gut feel on this one mostly.

A runoff between CF and Commo, Danny? You trying to make sure this game doesn't come near Abe's post count in the last one? ;)

I have to find some way to still lead in posts even after being night killed in the next few nights.

i think it was more likely Two Face was hoping...with a lone wolf, it is like a draft pick situation unless someone does find a way to drop a hint...converting hoops would have been a great addition to the supervillan team, so he went for who he wanted the most...worst cast, he hits Rachel and cant kill her. it wont surprise me one bit to see the night kill list be a "wolf hall of fame"

Or one of them is Two Face and you're trying to cover your tracks by getting enough votes out there :)

I'm up for going with Commo though. Don't really like this to become a Commo-Crimson run-off - but I am suspicious of people taking the easy route of voting Crimson, whether he's a convertee or not.

Vote Commo

I'm going to (vaguely) go along with the vague consensus that Saldana seems on the level.

Could be, but I am pretty sure if I was a corrupted I would just sit back knowing I would be a likely early kill target anyway.

Yeah, that was actually what I decided you'd probably do.

for me! for you! for us together!

It is just day two voting seems almost as random as day one in general. This game we have a plan. Look at the unvotes. might it bear results? I don't know. But putting someone who comes up for several of those seems like a good candidate to be in todays microscope. We do need another though. A runaway vote would not be good.

++++++1

finally got caught up....day one seemed to be a useless day with 8+ pages of nothing.

Based on that and reading the useful posts. I'm voting on who I would have voted day one based on that vibe I got.

Vote Zinito

I don't really have the time to go through all the nonsense posts from yesterday. Did Saldana reveal or something?

funny way of showing you don't want it to be a commo cf runoff. I think I listed valid reasons for voting cf and was the first on him, other then himself, so not like it was an easy road.

As for danny, not surprised by that vote as I came out and said I was suspicious of him. I'm just curious what gives the gut feeling I'm a wolf? Was it stating I thought it was not a good move for bgs to reveal, when there really is not a good reason to, or thinking hoops was good and saying I'm not sure why others were voting him?

Any reason you removed the middle part of his post about not liking a cf commo runoff?

I'm still not seeing the beef with Zinto (or Zinito). From what I can see his posts have been very much in-line with his usual play as a villager. I think the game is hard because it's tough for villagers to drop the usual attitude to voting, night kills and the like.

1. I think Two-Face has got to be primarily interested in targeting corruptibles. But if he doesn't have any solid leads on that score he'll probably look to kill/convert strong players. But if I was him I'd be way more focused on finding the nutter. This is probably the only game where I'm relieved to see a night kill has gone through because it means the situation isn't at risk of getting out of control.

2. Voting - at the moment it's going to tell you even less than usual. I tend to think that a nutter settles on one candidate and sticks on that candidate at the moment. There's a very slim chance that we're going to see a move to save anyone at this stage of the game - you're probably most likely to see a lot of second-guessing going on by villagers. I don't think you can read too much into voting movement as you might do in a normal game.

3. Signals to Two-Face. I think the nutters will be very wary of signalling Two-Face too overtly. Nobody wants to be the guy to make a slip up that costs their side the game without being able to discuss it with anyone. I think the nutter play a conservative game, try to keep off the people they think are wolves and only put their heads above the ramparts if Two-Face is at risk. Of course by "playing it conservative" that means trying to play their usual game.

4. I encourage villagers to try and post more, make Two-Face really have to work trying to find his allies.

Not that I've noticed.

I an trying to hide that part or I just accidentally didn't delete his vote, my reply was clearly directed qt the first part of bid post

Today is looking like a crap shoot. I am not sure at all about Crimson. Sure he is being his usual self but he is so over the top that I think Two Face would never take him being a deranged citizen seriously.

Also there is a good chance he knew he was going to gather some votes for being his usual Crimson self so I think he might of dialed it back a little bit.

good post

It was, just checking to see why you left the vote in.

1. At least he "kills" one corruptible, then I wonder if he shifts to Arkham hunting. It could have been a bit better if we had seen one vanilla villager intead of 2 roled ones.

2. & 3. So you are taking the Anti Chief position. changing is more likely to to be villagers. At least y'all hit everyone there!

Ah ok, yeah, didn't do that on purpose.

Just Listened to: Genesis, Land of Confusion

Now Listening to: Tricky, Ed Kowalczyk, Hawkman "Evolution, Revolution, Love"

Next in the Queue: The Echoing Green, Crybaby

Vote Commo

No strong feelings on Commo, but I don't like CF as a candidate. I'd be surprised if Two Face was in a three way tie yesterday. Was hoping we could find something on the candidate who fell out of the running at the four way tie, but Two Face cleared hoops for us.

you post count padder

Which makes him less of a threat even if he is a baddie. Fair enough he can scan for a seer while he's untouched by Two Face but I think we're going to have to reckon with our seers having a limited shelf-life anyway.

1. Once there's a conversion it's a whole different ball-game as the baddies have two kills.

2&3. Just a variant on my usual stance on villager-villager contests (which is what it's most likely to appear to be to all concerned). I'm probably going to have to re-evaluate it because it's becoming a bit of a cliche/truism but I'll stand by the logic in general at the moment.

Oh I'm pretty suspicious of people who have been around and aren't voting as well. Smacks of bet-hedging, see if anything shakes out before commiting to a vote.

Ooooooh, Danny just got POSTED UP!

[IMG]blog.cleveland.com/cavs_impact/2009/06/large_Shaquille-ONeal-Cavaliers.jpg[/IMG]

Dammit.

eh, I guess I see what you are saying, but I don't necessarily see bet-hedging as lupine behavior.

lol

I do. I understand that villagers do it, I've done it myself as a villager but I think that wolves have more interest in worrying about how their votes than villagers do.

So danny, still curious about what your thoughts on me are as your reasoning for voting me yesterday was wrong.

Sorry, subbing today and dont have much thoughts to post in limited break time