Yeah, which red side figured out a couple years ago and worked to get him out of the way.

Obama was a generational charismatic talent, a real outlier. I remember watching him give his 2004 DNC speech and was just blown away. But even then I didn't think he had much of a chance to win 2008. His ascendancy is not a fair or realistic bar to measure others by.

To use a tired sports analogy, it's a big unfair to ask every starting QB to go 5000/50 in their first starting year like Mahomes. It's ok for Josh Allen to have pedestrian 1st and 2nd seasons before becoming what he is or Tua to look lost for a couple of years.

I think Whitmer's Q rating is really low right now across the country. What's the national story on her? That she got screamed at by Q folks during mask lockdowns? Newsom's is better but it's still a bit low for being the California governor but I do think he's one of the best, even though he's only been in office one term.

To the others, I'm trying to figure out Warnock. I think he's a gifted politician who won against all odds in 2020. And may do so again this year. Does he have much ceiling left or is he good where he is? Same with Fetterman. I thought he had a real chance to go higher than Senate - will have to see how he recovers from the stroke. But, again, he's a prospect - not someone ready to take the next step yet.

But maybe I'm looking at this all wrong: get people in office before they have time to be targeted too much by the machine. But it means you get 1 chance to define the candidate on a national stage and, more often than not, they'll get defined by circumstances and being a political novice gets you eaten alive and your star falls (see: Beto).

SI

He may be more of a 2028 or 2032 candidate, but the most buzz I've heard from last night was around Wes Moore who won the MD governorship. First time running for elected office and apparently impressed a bunch of folks.

I feel like Jocelyn Benson, the Michigan SOS, may be the real rising star from Michigan. She is young, really well-spoken, born in Pittsburgh (PA swing state appeal), and a Harvard-educated JD. She did a good job dealing with the GOP shenanigans in 2020 and seems like she could be a governor and then move on to something bigger.

Mayor Pete won't go anywhere until he figures out how to appeal to the African-American vote.

However, I think tonight's results just increase the chance Biden does run again. If he was questioning it, the overperformance probably has emboldened him.

He needs to do his own reelection campaign and the party a favor by picking a different running mate.

The last time a President changed VP during a reelection was ... FDR?

He's not going to drop the first female POC VP ever.

I'm not saying he will but he should.

If Biden does lose in 2024 I could see him retiring a few days early and let Harris be the first female POC president.

Honestly, I would hope that Kamala does not agree to being a "token" first woman POC President. I wouldn't want to have that "asterisk" by my name forever in the history books.

They need someone the GOP hasn't been already targeting for 10 to 20 years. They need a fresh, lively face. Biden needs to walk off while he still can.

Yeah. The republican party is so toxic right now the dems should coast to any victory with a halfway decent candidate. It is amazing that person seemingly isn't out there. Mark Kelly maybe?

Mark Kelly is another good one.

Yeah, maybe that's what I lost in my math: someone Fox News and the hate ecosystem hasn't fixated on for years

That said, it means the candidate is a bit unvetted so you run a real risk of being defined by whatever dirt is dug up first.

SI

Eh, Fox (and Sinclair) can amplify shit pretty quickly. Even for Wes Moore they got together the attack of "HE LIED ABOUT BEING FROM BALTIMORE!" They'll find something for whoever emerges.

And if not they'll just make something up. He was born in Kenya I tellz ya.

I could see Kelly not wanting to put his wife through that. Imagine some of the cruel stuff they'll come up with about her.

Pritzker, Whitmer, and Shapiro should be the top picks in the party if Kelly is not interested.

I've been watching FoxNews this afternoon.

There's been 3 separate guests that have basically said DeSantis was the future. Republicans like Trump, appreciate what he's done etc. but they want normalcy, no drama, didn't like the baggage etc.

Trump said he'll announce mid-Nov. Wonder how long DeSantis will wait for his announcement.

Who I really want is Katie Porter. I don't think she has a chance, though.

My Chicago area relatives really like Pritzker

SI

As has been the case since he decided he was a Republican, the issue for Republicans is Trump feels like he gets to decide when the party moves on from him. What does normalcy look like for the Republican party if it is not blessed by Trump? Remember, DeSantis was blessed by Trump. In some ways, Trump is to Republincans what the Clintons have been to Democrats for years.

It is clear now that Trump can't run if Republicans want to win the White House. The question is will Trump allow DeSantis to run without having to remind everyone constantly that the only reason DeSantis is where he is today is because he rode Trump's coattails in 2018. I think DeSantis will be a strong candidate in 2024. I don't think his performance against Charlie Crist is as big of an indication of that strength as I hear national pundits say. Dr Oz would have beaten Crist last night if he was the Republican gubernatorial candidate in Florida.

Trump will be the nominee if he runs, he has completely held the party hostage. They had their chances to get rid of him and chose not to and now are stuck with him, likely until the day he dies.

In a normal situation, McConnell and others would sit down with someone and get them to do the right thing for the good of the party. This happens all the time as part of horse trading for running for certain offices. Likely these are conversations people are having (or trying to or about to have) with Biden. The problem here, of course, is that Trump does not care about anyone but himself. So the party is almost powerless to reason with Trump for their own intra-party "orderly transition." He will burn down the party before that happens.

Even if Trump is tried and convicted and can't run, he will do all he can to disenfranchise his voters to the point it will tank the Republicans.

Theoretically, by trump's own words, he's too old to be president. Not that what he says matters, but he's just too old, but...

Let's pretend that Mitch was somehow silver tongued enough to convince Trump that this was a good idea tonight. And I don't mean Trump said he wouldn't do it with his fingers crossed, but in his heart of hearts, he agreed with Mitch that it was a good idea and was all in. Tomorrow, Trump would wake up and be out there talking about how great it would be if he ran for President in 2024. Just like with any negotiation during his administration, it was like trying to nail Jello to a wall. It's hard to negotiate with someone who has both the attention span and impulse control of a kindergartner.

SI

From what I can tell by watching TV, the awful crime wave of October is no longer a problem.

He's fine. It's nice to have a Democratic Governor who isn't either a) a felon, b) beholden to the Chicago machine, or c) both, so Pritzker benefits from outstandingly low expectations.

The office of Illinois Governor is one of the weakest gubenatorial offices in the country, so there's not a lot he can influence. Power is mainly held by the Speaker of the House, who was Mike Madigan for like 40 years until he finally resigned in disgrace. It's going to take forever for the state government to dig out of all the holes Madigan put them into (financial & otherwise), not helped by the fact that almost all of them, both parties, are mainly in politics to grift.

But anyway, JB has distinguished himself by being willing to talk straight and tough and supporting a lot of good legislative and statutory causes. Whether that translates to national appeal is hard to say.


Tried & convicted & appeals exhausted by November 2024? Hard to believe that will happen on anything for which he is currently under investigation.

Yup. He has the resources & support to stall forever.

After nightly updates on the crisis at the border (usually B roll of desert played over Republican politicians spewing BS), last night I had to go to bed without any new news.

There's good evidence that GOP is moving away from him. He doesn't get to decide. No, it's not there yet but it is trending away from his special brand of "baggage, drama". The mid-terms show this.

I (think) I agree on the Clinton comparison. Clinton became much less relevant after the Dems found their next star in Obama. I'm thinking DeSantis is the frontrunner to be that next Obama.


Maybe. But what I've heard is DeSantis was able to win over the latino/hispanic votes (e.g. Miami-Dade) and doubt Dr. Oz could have done the same.


Honestly, its not that clear to me. I do think Trump could still win the White House assuming there is not a strong GOP alternative. Because I can't think of anyone else, I think DeSantis is that person right now. Some 2024 questions running around in my mind:

1) Will Trump run again - I think the odds are for it, he's a narcissist
2) Will DeSantis run - yes
3) Who wins in Trump vs DeSantis - debatable, but fair chance DeSantis can pull it off with the right donors & leadership support (e.g. tired of Trump)
4) Can DeSantis beat Biden - I'd bet on DeSantis and the presumed latino/hispanic support, contrast in age
5) Can Trump beat Biden - toss up but give slight edge to Trump. Biden's (normal aging) cognitive decline is apparent to me. Not saying he's not fit to be President now but he will be less fit each year. So is Trump's but his gets explained away or minimized because of all his other crap

My answers on those points:

1) Yes.
2) Not necessarily. As has been noted, he's young enough that he can afford to wait. Taking on Trump is risky. I've seen stories before the midterms saying that he's been telling donors he won't run if Trump does. That's not iron-clad of course and it could be nonsense, but I think it's far from foregone that he runs. Could go either way.
3) Debatable, as you say.
4) Probably DeSantis
5) I think Biden would win easily. Trump has been weakened. Unless inflation is still at current levels or worse which is extremely unlikely, Biden wins. Possibly in landslide fashion. Trump's baggage dwarfs Biden's cognitive decline.

I also think it's wise not to attach too much importance to the Florida results and then project them nationwide. Florida was an outlier, and probably not something you can generalize to the rest of the country. There are a lot of potential reasons for why it happened, we don't know what they are yet, and DeSantis just being superawesomeamirite is only one potential explanation.

I think a fair explanation is that Florida is a MAGA-crazy magnet at this point.

Yes, I can also see DeSantis biding his time till 2028 (surely Trump will be dead or invalid by then).

I can also see the calculus that if Trump runs and wins, will DeSantis want to wait till 2028 knowing the VP will be the presumptive GOP candidate?

Another scenario I thought of was Trump having DeSantis as VP and, therefore, heir apparent for 2028. I don't see DeSantis agreeing to this (e.g. wanting to live through the craziness).

There's probably some secret reach outs & internal polling going on right now about DeSantis vs Trump.

I can't imagine DeSantis not running now. Are his political fortunes ever going to be higher than they are right now? I mean, it's possible they could be better by 2028, but I'd bet against that.

Trump will say something like this-

“The 2020 election was full of fraud, and the result was stolen from me. In 2024 I’ll be on the ballot in all 50 states, join me to take back what is ours”

Unlimited fundraising opportunities and let the Republicans squirm knowing they can either endorse him if he’s a 3rd party spoiler.

The Florida GOP is probably the most efficient in the country, and the Florida Democratic party is a tire fire.

I heard on the radio today something like 300+K people have moved there since Covid started. Factor in the Cuban vote that skews overwhelmingly red and Florida will be a red state for the foreseeable future.

There's a new crop of Boomer retirees moving in every year.

I can tell you from my wife's family still in Florida and all of her high school FB friends, they are not just MAGA but on the cult side of crazy. I don't know how/why my wife would even want to scroll through it. My GA high school friends were enough to drive me off FB, but hers are on another level.

This. Look at who the D's put up for a candidate. Charlie Crist was a Jeb Bush appointee, became governor with the backing of you guessed it Donald Trump in 2006, lost to Rubio twice in 2010 once in the primary and again in the general, switched party because said tire fire and lost to Rick Scott, rode Obama's coattails to the House in 2016, before getting his ass handed to him by DeSantis this time.


And this. I would argue it is much closer to a state of anarchy with the ability to call on conservative talking points when needed. It is very much a leave me alone but make sure you put your foot on the neck of THOSE people sort of thing.


I don't think this is not the factor it once was. I would love to see some data but anecdotally it feels like senior citizens are entering the Florida market with less and less spending power than in the past. And that was before the pandemic. That is not to say that Boomers are not coming at all. It just seems like it is less than in the past. Like I said above, the red is more of the Don't Tread On Me variety than anything else.

I'll assume very low odds that a GOP House will play along. Wonder what options Joe has here.

Federal court strikes down Biden's student loan forgiveness program | CNN Politics

I'm pretty sure I saw during election coverage that 500,000 retirees moved to Florida since Covid hit. I could be remembering wrong though. I don't doubt that the new group has much less spending power than previous groups though. So many people retired earlier than they planned in 2020.

The law was always on dubious standing. Biden knew this and went ahead aways. That's why keep kept on changing the forgiveness program so that no one should have standing to sue.

Personally I think any taxpayer should have standing to sue on matters like this.

I mean, wouldn't that mean you can have standing to sue on any budget item? What if people sued on the defense spending amounts or any particular program they did not agree with.

I'm not really sure it was a "law" per se, but rather I thought it was a program they felt they could enact under the DOE or something.

Law was the wrong word.

But this is not simply disagreeing with the spending. This is questioning whether Biden has the authority to create this particular program.

And I think taxpayers should have standing in the case because the debt wiped away by the program now falls on the taxpayers to pay.

Not to mention that any government action should be subject to oversight to make sure they're acting within the law.

What about the tax breaks for the wealthy...we are getting stuck with the deficit that created. Can we sue on that? Every time we spend more than we have, the taxpayers take on that debt...so can we sue?

Seems like congress can get together and change the DOE budget to eliminate that if they don't like it, right? I just don't get why they suddenly have standing to sue over a program they don't like just because it adds to the debt.

I think you're missing one of my arguments, and that is Joe Biden is on dubious legal grounds in cancelling the student debt. This is not simply a matter of "not liking" a policy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/educa...texas-lawsuit/

So, not a lawyer, but this seems dubious:



He didn't even consider standing in ruling the case? Isn't that kindof important?

And, in what is a shock to no one, it's a case of FYGM. One of the plaintiffs in the case got $50K in PPP loan forgiveness:
Plaintiff in Biden Student Debt Lawsuit Had PPP Loan Forgiven

SI

"Things that say really stupid stuff publicly. Things that are getting cancelled. Things that are worth way less than they were just a month ago."

Is a $10K ($25K?) Pyramid joke too old?

SI

Hardest game of Marry, Fuck, Kill?

Since the Judiciary is so good at getting things cancelled, we need to suggest other things for them to tweet.

I'll start: Student Loan Debt

Probably not for this board.

FWIW, I like this pic. I like the contrast of POTUS with an ancient temple (?) backdrop.

G20: Biden steps into summit in Indonesia aiming to unite leaders in opposition to Russia's war on Ukraine | CNN Politics

Alright Joe, hope you are ready for the next 2 years. I have more confidence in you beating Trump than anyone else.

So please stay healthy, take some of the gingko stuff, keep on cycling and maybe do some Pilates.

Is it just me, or has all the talk about the price of healthcare in this country just disappeared.

I bring this up because my out-of-pocket costs for my recent hospital stay is going to cost me about as much as a high end cruise.

Hospitals need to give you the price of every billable item before they perform them. I don't need to be charged hundreds of dollars for someone to watch me swallow. Or for a speech therapist to spend 5 minutes making sure my speech is fine.

Looking at my bill was almost enough to give me another mini-stroke.

Join the club.

The out of pocket cost for my 2 kids was reasonable. But wife and I looked through the itemized bill, many of the charges were ridiculous.

I know Obamacare has gotten more people insured. But don't think it necessarily lowered cost of healthcare overall.

As more and more of us spend more time at the doctor's office, I expect that conversation to reappear.

I had bills from three different Heart doctors offices. I only saw one doctor while i eas in the hospital. The other two charged me $500 per to just look at my chart. It is ridiculous.

I like this move and bet there won't be a successful challenge here. Assume Biden wanted to shoot for the moon first with the debt forgiveness and that is probably deader than a doornail. This is Plan B and seems more fair for those that did not benefit, or did not get a loan from the government.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/17/bide...ankruptcy.html

As part of immigration reform (whenever that is), we should identify those professions that we really want to increase, and provide some sort incentive and fast-track process. There may not be a ton of qualified foreign specialists (e.g. heart, neuro, oncologist etc.) up to the US standards, but I'm positive there are a ton that can be GPs.

(That goes for nurses also who I know the US has been complaining about a shortage since the early 90's).

Probably a good move as there's a lot others can sue US Presidents for.

MBS was made Prime Minister in Sep 2022. This probably means Biden admin bided its time by not acting until they could use this excuse.

The practical realities that the Trump and, now, Biden admin have to deal with in our frenemy relationship.

Jamal Khashoggi death: US determines Saudi Crown Prince is immune in case brought by journalist's fiancée | CNN Politics

I'm not sure this would be a fair swap (Olympian & WNBA druggie vs notorious arms merchant) but it's a good sign that there are talks. I think we'll need to assess if Bout will resume his work or his connections have moved on.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63675119

Druggie?

Seriously?

Good thing she wasn't travelling to Singapore.

Sweet, I'm a druggie.

I take 4 drugs every morning.

Count me in as a druggie.

guilty...

Does Delta-8 usage qualify for druggie status?

Amateur. I take more than that in the morning just for blood pressure. I must be a drug king-pen.

Not only do I take 5 a day but I also inject once a week!

Bow to your new King! Long may he reign!

He's not really Prime Minister though. Salmon is since he's King (according to their laws). The Prime Minister name annoited to MBS is just a new thing they made up out of thin air to avoid being sued.

Fully convinced they have compromising information on Biden or he just has a humiliation fetish.

I'm sure the GOP's numerous investigations will get to the bottom of that and won't just be about trying to find Hunter Biden porn

SI

If someone with a NYT sub could share access to this story, that would be great. From what I'm reading, it is pretty clear Alito makes a habit of leaking pro-Evangelical decision to their leaders. How deeply he and Thomas are tied to the very people who become before their court is not a good look.

You are witnessing one of those rare moments when I am speechless. Don’t just read the headline. READ every line of this shocking and deeply troubling piece. https://t.co/QCkzUAPY3C

— Sherrilyn Ifill (@SIfill_) November 19, 2022

Thank you.

Joe, the 2 shotguns you own are (probably) semi-automatic. I'll assume you really mean assault weapons and not all semi-automatic weapons in general.

Yeah, the gun legislation you got passed earlier this year, although better than nothing, seemed watered down.

President Joe Biden rails against access to assault weapons after recent spate of shootings | CNN Politics

I'm sure this would be entertaining for X weeks before he flames out. But I'll buy his Ye 24 t-shirt as a souvenir (and hang it beside my twice-worn Yang 2020 t-shirt ... btw I guess universal basic income is dead?)

Kanye West says he asked Trump to be his 2024 running mate | The Hill

Yang is more interested in permanent political income for himself.

JAUKUS (aka Asian NATO) coming soon to a theatre near you. Great move Biden.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/polit...rtner-alliance

Good to see that Biden is taking a more practical approach now. Should have done it earlier. This was a trigger he could have pulled earlier to help inflation if he really wanted to.

Biden gives Chevron permit to restart Venezuelan oil sales - POLITICO
I guess below also could be true but do we really believe Maduro is going to give in? He's already survived the worst of it, Venezuela is getting better compared to 2-3 years ago. Our ME frenemy has embarrassed Biden so he's reaching out to Maduro. I really do hope we can buildup our relationship with Venezuela, we still need to import the 5% heavy crude from somewhere for the next 10-15 years; and Venezuela is a lot closer than ME.

I don't know about this specific instance. But just from those snippets, it's almost like this is what real foreign affairs are supposed to look like. You take on risk and exert political pressure to extract concessions with a medium and long term plan instead of just going off on whoever has offended you on Twitter last week.

SI

How much of a ghoul do you have to be to take an amazing moment where a bunch of kids see the president on Nantucket, call to him, and he actually acknowledges them and comes over, and turn it into a narrative of him being a creeper. It is so gross.

Who did that, Fox?

all right wing medai

Joe, don't know all the details but looks like you gave it a good shot, and now you're being a leader, taking the political hit & making the tough calls. This is one step to prevent inflation from getting worse. Good job

‘No path’ forward: Biden calls on Congress to avert rail strike - POLITICO

The rail industry has spent $25 billion in stock buybacks.

Total compensation

Total Compensation - NRLC

We should not ban stock buybacks. But we should give them very unfavorable tax treatment. Make it something that companies do only when it makes financial sense in the face of the tax penalty.

We really want to be encouraging them to increase their value through building, etc.--not through buying back stock.

This holiday season....

Sure, monthly health insurance premiums are astronomical, but how else are the CEOs supposed to afford their sick yachts??? �� pic.twitter.com/QtownMz2VF

— Ady Barkan (@AdyBarkan) November 29, 2022

This was no leadership. This was turning your backs on workers whose back you should have had, whose back you've claim to have had for a long time.

The GOP gets to claim they are pro-business and reap the rewards of that preposterous claim despite the overwhelming evidence that their trickle down economic model destroys the middle class and that deficits explode when they are in office: "Hey, we'll give you a couple hundred bucks and

It's just another cynical move by Democratic leadership where they claim to be with workers but ultimately are owned by the same corporations that own the right, only without the benefits of being "pro business".

I just don't get it from a politics standpoint. Workers will remember you screwed them over for years but the gains from "keeping the economy going" are next to nil, especially 2 years before the next election when lots of other events will change the economy narrative.

I think we all know that this is really a blip in the overall economy - a rail strike for a few days or a couple of weeks isn't going to significantly affect the economy any more than a hurricane or Middle East politics that jack up oil prices. It's a temporary disruption - significant but temporary. And it's a tiny ripple in the structural ocean next to China's supply chain mess, corporate profit taking also really screwing up the supply chain, the feds policies that are rushing us into recession, and the lingering effects of COVID.

So it's hard to not see this as anything but a cynical chance for the Democratic leadership to pay back years of donations. But, hey, vote for us because, while we'll sell you out to the same corporate overlords as the other side (without the political gain), at least we're not going full on Christian nationalist fascism with shades of neo-Nazi.

SI

It's a bad look and not surprising when you see the loss of working class voters for the party over the past few decades.

The biggest issue is the companies knew the government would back them and never allow a strike. So they really had no need to negotiate.

Free market for me, not for thee.

For the same reasons, you'll never see another pilot strike allowed in the US too. It will always be blocked by the government, even if all the rules have been followed. It's nearly impossible for it to get this far down the road (strike),it takes years. So it's not surprising, and it's not good.

I voted in the run-off today. 2:30 on a Wenesday and had to wait an hour to vote. Some places un Georgia the wait is two+ hours. There was areason they shortened the time frame, and reduced the number if early voting days. They tried their hardest to stop Saturday voting as well. Republicans fear allowing people to vote.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

I think Michigan is a good choice. Way more representative of the country than Iowa.

News: It's Michigan.

Mich is poised to replace Iowa as an early nominating state for Democrats in 2024, per senior officials.

Will be formally taken up by DNC this weekend, but the White House has decided.

I first reported Mich was being eyed here:https://t.co/fDPVbwoixc

— Jonathan Martin (@jmart) December 1, 2022

In my opinion, the state with the highest voter turnout (as in votes per total population) the previous presidential election should get to go first in the primaries. Or maybe better they get to choose their position in line.

We should be rewarding states that encourage voter turnout.

Why not all primaries at the same time. We don't have different counties have different primary dates for selecting a governor nominee?

That's what I would like to do. That's the only way for all states to have the same voice.