While driving with the missus yesterday, she indicated the biggest ding to Trump for her was his coronavirus response.

Not that I'm complaining but the Pfizer announcement, for some, could be suspiciously close to after the elections.

I really hope its "real" and vaccines in 1Q.

Question for the group here.

My wife is thinking about driving from GA to TX to see parents for Christmas. School is out Fri 12/18 so she we discussed maybe she get a test on Tue 12/22. If she caught anything, this will give it 4 days or so to "incubate". She'll then leave on Wed 12/23 for TX, spend the night somewhere and get there Thu 12/24.

1) Is the 4 days sufficient? Or are tests good enough where she could take it earlier?

2) How accurate are CVS-and-like tests? Does she need to take 2 tests to really be sure?

I can't really answer your questions, maybe Joe Biden can when his virus task force meets, but there's nothing wrong with getting multiple tests if anyone is travelling for the holidays in my opinion.

My thoughts would be why bother with the test when she is then going to drive cross country, stop at gas stations, hotel, restaurants, etc...all places she could get infected.

Best to ask a professional at whatever place she plans to get the test. They'll ideally have specifics on what the tests they use can and can't do. But with that caveat out of the way , some general boilerplate stuff gleaned over time:

4-5 days is pretty much thought to be the average (median) incubation time, usually a person is infectious a day or 2 earlier (so 2-4 days after exposure).* So there's a decent chance but far from a guarantee that it would detect an infection that happened Friday. I think that combined with the fact that truly asymptomatic cases are rarer than sometimes claimed that would put the 6th day and still not feeling anything decently past the median in terms of statistical likelihood.

* "CVS" i have no idea what that refers to, but in general any sort of antigen "Instant/rapid" test i am aware of has a decent sized blind spot prior to being infectious. Meaning it's biggest asset is reliably detecting people that are actually infectious in that moment, biggest weakness is that it's less sensitive than a PCR when already infected but not yet infectious themselves.
So the best time to take that would definitely be as late as possible. In any case she should do it at a medical facility and go for the proper swab through the nose when given the option (test can't detect what the human does not properly collect).

2 tests by itself won't make a huge difference unless one is botched. Both being done equally well, the latter is always the more reliable one.

Make what you will of that and do definitely ask a professional if available.

Thanks for the responses.

Re: the drive itself, we've been pretty good about wiping our hands, steering wheels, door handles etc. after a gas fill-up, Kroger trips etc. On overnight stay at a hotel, we did talk about maybe son & daughter going with her so they can drive the 10-12 hours straight (I stay home to watch the dog).

Whomario, thanks for your insight to the incubation period & testing. CVS is a chain of drug stores like Walgreens/Boots. They offer the test but unsure what type, I'll research more.

Obviously 1.3B doesn't isn't good enough for the world (and need 2 doses each). Have to believe they will create other "manufacturing lines" to scale like in China, India etc.

Assume Pfizer will get paid by country governments. How in the world do you set & negotiate pricing that is fair, affordable but still gives Pfizer some level of profit?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/09/healt...ive/index.html

The cold storage is going to make it a difficult choice for less advanced countries.

CVS used PCR


2-3 days for test results. So wife is now thinking week after Christmas so it's not as tight.

AstraZeneca/Oxford is planning on producing 2 billion doses of their vaccine next year, Moderna should also produce at least a billion of theirs too. There's dozens of other vaccines candidates, at least some of whom will get approved next year.

Nowhere close to everyone is going to get it, I'd be surprised if half did in the U.S., but at some point the herd immunity defense between existing antibodies and vaccinated people is going to be high enough for infection to be a lot more rare and manageable. Everybody's going to have a different personal risk tolerance for when they stop wearing masks, start traveling, going to events, etc., and I'm sure we'll fight with each other over that. But I wonder how the world would respond to a rare-ish but not extinguished COVID that we vaccinate for every year. Do we still socially distance? Will we need proof of vaccination to attend sporting events, board planes etc? Can't wait for that shit show! (It would be better than the current shit show)

There's also going to be targeted treatments available rather than the quick-fix repurposed ones.
It's going to become part of life but tolerable, essentially flu 2.0. If we are smart we keep some common sense stuff going like higher acceptance for people and kids staying home sick (health insurance and employees/employers being reimbursed is a good tool here ...) and social pressures demanding that outside work, generally being more careful and doing simple shit like hand washing and being more mindful of ventilation. Maybe even wear masks when coughing and sneezing.
Because that way we also lower the damage from a host of different infectious diseases with flu at the forefront. I mean, flu was essentially nonexistant in the southern hemisphere this year. Because flu viruses aren't actually that great at spreading, just criminally ignored ...

25% of our staff out tomorrow. Plus 37 kids.

Shit is bad. I do not want it.

True but their efficacy is unknown. Apparently 50% is acceptable for all in-progress vaccines but obviously the Pfizer 90% is better.


Agree with first bolded. On the second, my guess is it become mainstream with just another "flu shot". Some vulnerable will still die of it (just like the flu). In the US, I think we'll revert back to the way it was but we'll probably take the annual shots more seriously for the foreseeable future.

I did read that there is another company that has a near identical vaccine to Pfizer. It is possible we are going to have two vaccine with almost the exact effectiveness.

Here's an update on a China Phase 3 vaccine.

FWIW, I hope this is just a temporary pause and it continues on. Not that I don't trust western pharmas but a successful vaccine from China will mean that much sooner something is distributed worldwide and we put this crap behind us.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/10/healt...hnk/index.html

BREAKING—20% of recovering #COVID19 patients develop mental illness within 90 days, says large US study. Increased *first-time diagnosis* of anxiety, depression & insomnia by 2-fold! And researchers also found significantly higher risks of dementia. 🧵https://t.co/ahzlKNZVbO pic.twitter.com/b6Bf1w7uw6

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) November 10, 2020

Thanks for sharing. My daughter had Covid several months ago and has been dealing with a lot of anxiety lately. She's on medication now and it seems to be helping. The virus is a bitch.

We're almost certainly above 350,000 excess deaths so far this year. There's an outside shot we'll get to 450k depending on how relaxed restrictions get over the next month.

Wife gets daily hospital capacity updates in KC metro area since she's a doctor at one of the hospitals. There's around 15 hospitals that she gets info on. This morning, 13 were within 10% of capacity and the other two were diverting patients because they were at capacity.

Interestingly enough, the majority of patients are not from the KC metro area. The majority of patients are rural residents in areas where they still do not have mandated masks. At some point, the KC hospitals are going to start pushing these patients away to rural care and you're going to see an uptick in bad endings in those areas because the care simply isn't as good for obvious reasons.

And one always has to keep in mind that hospitals are not actually 'designed' to run at or near capacity. The national average usually is sth like 65-70% if i remember correctly (and Most will have increased their physical capacity, so 90% now would have been more before all this). A friend of mine is working at a hospital in an Admin capacity and likened operating above normal by more than a bit to a really bad Luxury Tax in terms of workload and ressources and also staff getting into trouble physically and mentally.

Coincidentily this rural/urban thing came up in a discussion the other day and i looked it up. Quite counterintuitively rural counties have been disproportionally hit on a per capita basis since the summer and it's climbing. Late October it was nearing 30% of all cases and deaths per day, yet those counties "Outside Metropolitan Areas" (as defined by the office of Management and budget) only encompass 15% of US Citizens.

And yeah, people don't realise that not every hospital is equipped to handle every patient. And that's not just Covid , but a bunch of others that a decent chunk of hospitals can't really treat effectively.

In Houston, the number seems to be around 80% being the sweet spot for profitability vs capacity. But, yeah, when you start hitting like 90%+, then elective surgeries start getting moved for capacity.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...pital-systems/
In Houston, we're actually in good shape right now (I mean, as good as a major city can be). It's nothing like the beginning of the summer when we were a hot spot, though positive test rates are creeping up closer to 5% now.

SI

Weather being what it is likely helps a lot in some areas still, what with people spending time outside rather than inside. Can't judge more than the basics, but partly that also impacts Indoor spaces as you are more likely to ventilate vs an area that has colder temperatures. Whereas in Summer it maybe was so hot people stayed inside with ineffective ACs etc ...

Texas also has generally lower than average levels of deaths from flu and pneumonia IIRC from when i looked that up a while back.

The dementia part is scary, the rest I'm curious on how much has anything to do with the disease, and how much has to do with people in general having increased anxiety & depression, but COVID-19 positive patients being the ones much more likely to interact with doctors and thus get diagnosed.

I was thinking about this, as well. I wonder what % of the general population is having more mental health issues this year.

That said, SARS had a pretty significant mental health component, too, so it would stand to reason that COVID could affect people in a similar way.

SI

My brother in law was diagnosed last week. The good news is he has been doing ok mostly, even though he has a couple of comorbidity issues and is several years older than me. He is a preacher, and because he spends a good bit of time with older people, he does wear a mask. His masks wearing along with social distancing protocols has basically split the church. Several members that I love and used to respect have left, even though the elders have not forced anybody to wear a mask. It is just recommended, along with social distancing. One of the non-mask wearers that haven't left gave him the virus.

We've already had more cases in the 1st 10 days of November in Kentucky than we had from March through June.

I'd also love to see if/how those numbers correlate with the size of their medical bills.

New high in hospitalizations. Be careful and wear a mask.

My brother in law was just admitted to the hospital. His oxygen level was down to 91, and he was no longer able to move around. We will know more soon, but wife is so upset she can't be with him right now.

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My thoughts are with your family Grant

God bless, Grant.

oof, thinking good thoughts Grant

Best wishes to your BIL and family.

Have my first dental cleaning of the year (I'm actually pretty overdue). Possibly need a new filling because I've got some sensitivity.

He's a good guy and its a decent size practice. I'm know he will be diligent on procedures and sanitation.

Just wondering if anyone else gone to the dentist recently and their experience?

Been a few times with no issue. TBH the dentist needs to be far more concerned about you getting them sick. Mine wore a mask and face shield the whole time. They also had me rinse with peroxide, which was weird but oddly refreshing.

Same. Put it off for a few months, but went through with my first root canal (plus the resultant filling/crown), yay 2020! I don't really see any way washing my hands or rinsing my mouth (mine was with listerine) for 30 seconds is really gonna protect either of us against COVID transmission if one of us unknowingly had it since I have an open mouth within a foot of each other for an hour+, but it's not like they can do much else.

I hope God had some choice words for him.

I just went today and had a crown finished. They were actually mostly closed for the first couple months except for emergencies. Now you have to call when you get there for your appointment, and at first they met you at your car and asked the usual questions about COVID. Now they ask over the phone, clear you to come in, and when you get there take your temperature, and give you a mask to wear. They have plexiglass all around their office area, and everybody that works there has a mask on.They have hand sanitizer there too.

They have a place in each exam room to hang up your mask. I'm personally glad they go through all this-because I would have had to stop going to him after he pretty much saved my mouth because it was pretty bad for a long time.

Looks like the second wave is finally hitting my county. For the last 5-6 months we have not had new daily case getting into the 30s (population c.160,000), but yesterday 39, today 44

Still small numbers, but roughly double the number of case within a week is not good

KY passed 2K cases a day for the 1st time just a week ago, and now we've hit 3K+ 2 days in a row.

Pretty sure our schools won't be going back. They are going back to online only for next week on a week to week basis. I imagine it continues until early next year. No way are they going back right now.

In Woodford county, only HS and MS are virtual next week, and it's only because so many staff are out that they can't effectively run in-person school. But I'll be shocked if they don't just shut it down from Thanksgiving until after winter break in January.

so remember back in March/april when governors were setting up tents outside to treat overflow and scrambling for ppe and ventilators and having to order from other countries and have it privately flown to keep trumps goons from stealing it all?

So like is any of that stuff happening now...or are supplies and stockpiles good?

spidey sense says some of them sat on their thumbs and did not stockpile or prepare for a second wave during the summer.

I have to wonder how many random Americans would be diagnosed with a mental illness if tested.

Roughly 72 million

Perhaps a second wave at Number 10

With us in the midst of a second wave and predictions it will get worse before better, anyone doing or buying anything extra? I know Biden has said no lock-down but food supply chain may get challenged again.

I took stock this weekend. We are good with paper products, sanitizers and basic foods (I think). But was thinking of

1) Couple additional bottles of whiskey
2) A spare bag of dog food (1 month supply)
3) We already have a turkey but need to buy the trimmings and a pie

Biggest issue from last time around was fresh foods like vegetables & eggs.

Also, one big difference is the conventional wisdom that take-outs are probably safe. If take-outs were operating back then, probably wouldn't have felt as bad.

Looking at where the numbers are moving in relation to this from a few days ago there's a much weaker correlation between deaths and cases than we had in either wave. We're only now approaching the peak moving 7 day average for the 2nd wave over the summer, despite the number of cases being double the number (7 day moving avg) from that same time period.

We are unlikely to hit 2000 deaths per day and the curve overall may not jump to the heights that we are expecting, or if it does, it may not be until there are even more cases than we have right now (guessing a number upwards of 250k new cases per day).

We know that more testing is showing more cases, but there's also much better therapeutics which are having a positive effect. There's not enough to know how much, if any, the dna of the virus is weakening as it replicates, but it could be having some impact as we get deeper into the 3rd wave.

There's no reason to stop trying to keep things in hand here. The number of infected in the US still only amounts to 3.2% of the population. So we're a long, long way away from just giving up and tossing our cards. But there is reason to believe that we don't need to panic just yet, or over react. As I've said all along, it's about managing it, and finding that happy medium where we fight it on all fronts, and keep driving the number of deaths down as cases rise. The macro numbers there are continuing to trend in the right direction.

There are a number of hospital systems on the verge of capacity with some already turning away patients. Where that's happening, there's already a crisis. The deaths are going to go up in those areas because there aren't staff for patients and people will avoid going to the hospital even for critical care.

We are absolutely going to hit 2k deaths a day. Death is a lagging indicator and we haven't seen levels like this before. Exponential growth and the collapse of some health care systems soon.

Deaths lag by 14+ days statistically ... Summer peak cases 66k July 15th (yes it rose by another 2k, but that's really where you hit the peak before essentially plateuing. Picking out the end of that plateu isn't sensible for a comparison with now, where it is still accelerating) , summer peak deaths 1170 (Aug 2nd)

Oct 28th was 75k cases, deaths Nov14th were 1150 and climbing rapidly. Cases Nov14th 153k and still climbing rapidly (accelerated growth after Nov1 actually).

Yeah, you can make a case it's a little less of a corelation but that still puts the US on a path to 2k+ soonish and pretty much already baked in. That's sth to rage against and any "happy medium" has to include preventing more infections. Just getting better at treating it (and it won't anymore. What you see now is what you get until designated therapeutics are developed and those are not coming before the end of Winter).

It's not just Covid deaths either: What about people not getting the help they need ? (Excess mortally) What about those with Covid and other shits having their Quality of life severely impacted short of dying ? For everybody dying there is another or two who'll have his life cut short. A ton of people 'recovered' from Covid are actually suffered strokes and major thrombosis during.

And that's not counting the 'mild' cases with mid to longterm effects who might well get better but looses their QOL in the interim in any case, have to put their careers/jobs on hold etc. Or all those missing out on care for other stuff because of unavoidable restrictions, precautions and restructuring by Hospitals and other providers.

Great news!

Dow and S&P are up 1%+. Nasdaq is down a little (but was up more this morning, not sure if the Moderna news impacted it).

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/healt...rus/index.html

A key difference: The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine must be stored at -70 C , while Moderna’s can be kept at -20°C. Once thawed, the Moderna vaccine can remain stable for 30 days at 2° to 8°C - home refrigerator temperatures. https://t.co/E53yKEPULa

— Martin Enserink (@martinenserink) November 16, 2020

Of course we are. Though not as exhausted by half as those behind those statistics and those trying to prevent/improve them. And there's a reason the adage doesn't stop at "hope for the best" but adds a second part to it.

As an aside, things are dire if a german government tries to combat it with humour:

The German government COVID message for those with limited knowledge of German now subtitled in English by me. pic.twitter.com/nGijkMj5H0

— Axel Antoni (@antoni_UK) November 14, 2020

And yes, of course plenty of the internet makes it about them ("how dare they belittle the struggle we face and how dare they not talk about those who can't well just sit home") when in reality this telegraphs who they are adressing very clearly and who they are asking to abstain from what.

Heard on the news today South Dakota has a 58% positivity rate, yet the governor hasn't put any restrictions in place. The reporter said they have been there a day and virtually no one wearing masks, distancing, and it is business as usual.

I get the mouth breathers who will never let the man tell them what to do, but how can government officials who are literally being begged by their own health care workers to take simple steps for prevention be so complicit?

That's pretty glorious.

Edit: whomario's post, obviously.

The MAGA Queen Governor was bragging about their handling of covid a few months ago and turned away the unemployment benefits because they were doing so well.

Washington is going into a semi-shutdown at midnight tonight. No indoor dining, gyms and movie theaters closed, 25% capacity at retail and grocery stores, office workers strongly encouraged to work from home.

Panic buying in full force right now. We saw this coming and stocked up a bit over the past week to avoid the panic buying rush.

Good on TP?

What kind of dipshit asks a question like that? :D

Yes, we're good.

I had to unfollow a friend from Seattle today who is screaming on Facebook that there is zero data showing indoor dining contributes to the spread and this is government controlling us.

Meanwhile friends who own a bar in Seattle are in full support.

TBH, I don't know if there has been studies that show in-door dining has contributed to the spread assuming diners are 6ft apart and wear masks in common areas.

Honest question - has there been an uptick of infected flyers? Although everyone is wearing masks, they are stuck in a tube and less than 6ft apart for hours.

Good article from WSJ that we don't know how the majority are getting it because both the US and Europe at horrible at contact tracing.

As COVID-19 surges, the big unknown is where people are getting infected

Read this twitter thread. People are screaming about the Covid hoax while they are in the hospital dying.

I have a night off from the hospital. As I’m on my couch with my dog I can’t help but think of the Covid patients the last few days. The ones that stick out are those who still don’t believe the virus is real. The ones who scream at you for a magic medicine and that Joe Biden is

— Jodi Doering (@JodiDoering) November 15, 2020

Idiots were out protesting mask wearing in front of a locally owned grocerery store in Mill Creek yesterday.

Send em home to die

I remember seeing a study a while back about restaurants, but they all run together at this point. I do for a fact remember seeing the air filtration systems in planes get rid of over 99% of the particles.

Well played, sir.

Where I am we've seen the beginning of holiday and panic shopping hit over the start of the next week. Somebody came in recently and bought over 20 loaves of bread, unapologetically for the express purpose of hoarding. I give them points for honesty, but not much else, particularly when the vendor tried to convince them of the self-evident fact that some of it will go bad before they can use it.

It's only a few items out where I shop - some types of beans, corned beef hash, tp and paper towel etc., bread/butter are all fine. But the combination of holiday sales and the virus will do bad things in time for sure. I'm curious how well we collectively handle it and how much different it is than the spring.

Good article on info regarding covid tests and meeting with family over the holidays.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/healt...ess/index.html

Key points:

1) Incubation period is up to 10 days. Lots of false positives if taken too early


2) Lots of infections by asymptomatic people.


3) Rule of thumb if visiting relatives


4) Essentially, best way to celebrate the holidays is remotely.


I think I'll mention to the wife not to take the drive to TX the week after Christmas.

FIFY

We've gotten 2 for 1 bread deals before and we stick one in the freezer. It never tastes as good though. I can't imagine buying 20 loaves.

Better for them to buy bread flour, yeast and learn how to bake bread. It won't turn out to be nice and fluffy like store kind but still pretty good.


Yes, I do wonder how we and supply chain will fare this second time around.

In Gatlinburg for a few days and for the most part, people are masking up, but up in Rocky Top, masks must be for pussies, because between the gas station and the liquor store and everything in between, not one single mask was seen. Go Tennessee!

i despise holudays anyway so i'm good

Here's an interesting study. Run on mouth wash?

Mouthwash is able to kill #COVID19 within 30 seconds of exposure to it in a laboratory, a scientific study has found https://t.co/Q1vxfCzRT7

— SkyNews (@SkyNews) November 17, 2020

Study definitely not funded by a mouthwash company or dental trade group trying to shield themselves from liability...

SI

Ya know there's gonna be a run on mouthwash now, so get it while you can! :)

Second daughter confirmed positive, just as the first daughter is released from quarantine. She'll be home for Thanksgiving and at this point will be the only one of us who can go to the store. I told the wife I'd rather just get it now and be done with it instead of one of us getting it every 10 days and extending quarantine another 2 weeks.

Can't be long before Trump sells it as his idea.

I can see it now: Trump Mouthwash-maybe defeats COVID, maybe not (but you have to sign an NDA before you can use it)

By all accounts once you’re on the plane things are not too risky, assuming they’ve been cleaned properly.

Person to person transmission is more of an issue in getting through security, the boarding process, deplaning, baggage collection, etc.

Maybe it has hydroxychloriquine, maybe it doesn't. Maybe it's just cheap moonshine from some conman who swindled Trump into letting him put his name on it. Maybe it's some cheap moonshine from a mediocre conman who thinks Trump is going to pay him. It's all a mystery.

SI

Sorry to hear. Good luck to the daughters and family.

Huh? How is sitting a foot away from multiple strangers for hours straight not more dangerous than the rest of the process (so long as you're doing what you can to maintain 6 feet/wearing a mask).

I found references to a Harvard & DoD study.

Haven't flown in a while but assume airlines are taking disinfecting seats, table trays etc. very seriously. Even so, I find it hard to believe "little risk" once inside the plane but apparently that's what they are saying.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/f...ess/index.html

More details on the DoD study with United Airlines and IATA. So it may be a little biased but who knows.

I would appreciate more independent studies but accept that my fears may be overblown once a passenger is on a plane.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/risk...ry?id=73616599

Apparently to do with the circulation & filtration of the air once in the plane

My son is flying home on Saturday. I hope that study is right.

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87-year-old Chuck Grassley is positive.

If not for some non-COVID things that are keeping me home right now, I think I'd be traveling a lot. I'm enjoying the travel stories of people like the guy from the Points Guy blog who are using these times to take unique uncrowded and inexperience travel experiences which, if you can get there, are places safer than the U.S. COVID-wise, and which are offering luxury experiences as reduced expense. If you time it right and find the right deals, there are first-class international points redemption options all over the place.

The wedding was in Oct so everyone was well aware.

I'm sure the couple is sorry and I don't blame them for everything because the other 83 guest should also have known. I get wanting to get married but better choice would have been to keep it small (with more controls) and then have a larger gathering later.

Ohio newlyweds open up about their COVID-19 superspreader wedding

Just had our county put in a 10 person max on events for the foreseeable future. Still can have the winery open at 50% capacity, but there goes about $100,000 in event revenue over the next three months. :/

Has there been any further guidance on employer billing insurances for required COVID tests? We are up to 2 required tests a week and were just told it was mandatory to give our insurance information to HR so they can start billing them. They also added that they are waiting to bill the two from last week so they need it as soon as possible. Seems.....fraudulent.

fuck those selfish assholes. I blame them. Grandma, mom, dad, etc...aren't missing their wedding no matter what.

Should the guests have some personal responsibility? Absolutely, but the way you keep your wedding from being a super spreader event is don't have the wedding.

I read there were a couple sheriffs that said they were not going to go out of their way to enforce limits on gathering at private residences this holiday season.

It wasn't because they didn't believe covid was real, it was more like it's not their job (constitutionally or oath of office) to limit gatherings in private homes.

Yep, exactly. They put everyone in a very terrible situation.

So after running at lunch yesterday, I started having uncontrollable sneezing for about the next 6 hours as my sinuses became more and more painful. Watery eyes itching, redness teeth were aching from the pressure. Took an allegra, then finally a zytrec, which I never do.

Eventually around 11 the pressure just disappeared, but I got hungry and felt heartburn. I finally dozed off and on until I woke up about 3 and puked like a madman. Same thing happened again around 430. I haven't thrown up in a decade. Took my temp a few times through the night and morning and it was always normal. The "reflux" feeling hasn't gone away and sometimes feels overwhelming, but otherwise I don't feel bad. Sinuses are back to normal.

Of course, since my daughter was exposed a week ago, I got a test this morning and am now waiting on results. This ought to be a fun 2-3 days, especially if I'm not feeling great.

ick not fun Ghost, hope everyone is OK in your family