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-   -   COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778) (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=96561)

Edward64 09-17-2020 05:44 PM

Haven't really been keeping up with Europe but apparently there is a second wave going on (or in-progress)? Easing of lock downs and reopening the economies.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/17/europ...ntl/index.html
Quote:

The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that coronavirus cases are surging alarmingly in Europe, as a "very serious situation" unfolds across the continent.

As Covid-19 infections spike to record numbers, European governments are imposing strict local measures and weighing up further lockdowns in a bid to halt a second wave of the pandemic.

But WHO regional director Hans Kluge said at a Thursday news conference that the increase in cases should serve as a warning of what is to come.
"Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March," Kluge said. "Last week, the region's weekly tally exceeded 300,000 patients."

More than half of European nations have reported an increase of more than 10% in new cases in the past two weeks, Kluge added. "Of those, seven countries have seen newly reported cases increase more than two-fold in the same period," he said.

whomario 09-18-2020 01:44 AM

Jup, Spain and France especially are just stumbling towards desaster. Especially in Paris, Madrid and the South of France you already have hospitals stretched and operating in contingency modes.
UK could also be ugly. Cases not jumped as much yet but their procedures are an utter shambles with private contractors not suited or having the power they need.

Testing and Tracing was never properly set up. Yeah, France and the UK for example now tests a lot but has no lab capacity or PH ressources to go along with that, meaning they face the same issues as the US with looooong wait times for results and difficulty accessing them for the public (basically waiting in line for hours).

Germany so far still keeping up with demand, but the margins get smaller and what's already a wrinkle is that age of cases creeps up. 0-49 stayed stable the lasz 2 weeks, 50+ up 40%.

And fall/winter isn't even close, which will 100% have a negative aspect. Some People are under the insane impression that the spread not disapearing in Summer means it won't be that bad. As if the 'floor' (spreading under worst, for the virus, circumstances) says anything about the 'ceiling'.
It's a respiratory virus spread best indoors ...

MIJB#19 09-18-2020 12:15 PM

There is no "Europe" in this context, so I can't speak about the other 50+ countries on the western part of Eurasia, but the Netherlands is seeing the start of the second wave in North and South Holland. Infection rate (R) is 1.4 here right now, probably bigger than in this part of the country. Hospitalization rate is behind on the wave of infections, but R is reason for concern.

sterlingice 09-18-2020 03:08 PM

Almost as if an expected second wave in the fall and winter is going to second wave?

SI

MIJB#19 09-18-2020 07:05 PM

One more time: there really is no "Europe" in this context. There's a wide variety how countries are coping with this, are hit by it, either by their own actions or by random luck. Hence, my previous similar statements, I'm only going to comment about the situation here (the Netherlands) and it will only reflect on how it is here, and probably only on where I live: in the outer regions of a crowded city (a small city with a high population density). I have hardly a clue about how it goes in other provinces, like those that border Germany and Belgium. Let alone, how good or bad it is over the border in Belgium and Germany, not to mention our other neighbor across the North Sea in the UK (from where I live, the border with the UK is technically closest). My hometown is in the middle of what our neighboring countries this week have upgraded to a "red zone": stay away, 2 weeks of quarantine compulsory if you've been there. But it doesn't feel like we're in a red zone at all.

Perhaps how good things were going about 6-8 weeks ago here are catching us off guard. It felt like it was gone (it wasn't) and people were slowly getting "back to normal". But "good" was relative, Maassluis was the center of the COVID-19 news for about a week when a mini-outbreak wiped out a chunk of nursery home's population.

As a result, I think people here are thinking: "huh, second wave already? This wasn't supposed to be back until flu season, when it starts raining again." But since about 3 years ago it doesn't even rain anymore in September, flu season used to slowly start mid to late September (*looks at calendar*). And this September even more, it actually feels like it's July on the Mediterranean coast. I posted in the extreme weather thread about it being 30 Celsius in September. Nobody alive has experienced that before in this country. Who said it will get cooler, just watch?

Besides that climate change, what I think is catching people off guard is the not knowing/realizing they could be carrying it. Sure, it might not help that we're not allowed to test without any symptoms, despite we all know you can have it without showing symptoms. Testing is limited, we can't waste the resources. Digging up some numbers, we're heading towards 2K positive cases on a capacity of roughly 25K test per day, with a 17M population. Knowing that still a good portion of those tested isn't really showing symptoms, if you want to get tested, just say you have symptoms.

Tonight was a new press conference by the minister-president and the minister of health care, but it's like: okay, we see more people catching it, testing positive, but very few getting severely ill. As if it only hops around between healthy people. They tried to urge all to remember the social distancing rules, but so much has gone out of lockdown, in rural areas people are starting to act like it's vanished. Despite that the number of infected people in the big 4 cities is spiking to higher numbers than the peaks in April/May. But apparently the Facebook feeds of people are no longer flooded by COVID-19, or whatever.

Before this post gets any longer, I think our sense of "back to normal" takes away the cautiousness. not just because we're back to normal (we aren't!), but people acting like the semi-lockdown is over. And the lack of seeing it around us is seriously making us all, well, less cautious. Unaware. Naive? Dare I call it ignorant?

Edward64 09-19-2020 07:37 AM

Went to get my regular 4-5 week haircut at the mall. My haircut place did a great job on masks and social distancing but very disappointed to see large minority of people not wearing masks inside the mall. Covid fatigue I'm sure, made me want to take off my mask also.

AlexB 09-19-2020 03:03 PM

There was an anti-lockdown demo in Trafalgar Square today. One of the placards read ‘A virus smarter than the people it effects’... oh, the irony!

Edward64 09-20-2020 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexB (Post 3301966)
There was an anti-lockdown demo in Trafalgar Square today.


Been to that place! Not near as active as Times Square but still fun.

JPhillips 09-21-2020 11:18 AM

Maybe this will end up being a better fit for the political thread, but who knows what's going on.

Last week the CDC published that COVID is spread by droplets and aerosols. Today the CDC revoked that and said it was just a draft.

Edward64 09-22-2020 07:49 AM

Been trying to keep up on vaccine progress or lack of.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...?mod=home-page

I'm not sure if this has always been there but I noticed today they had vaccine "target effectiveness".

Quote:

AstraZeneca - 50%
BioNTech - 60%
Moderna - 60%

Don't know what "target effectiveness" really means but as a layperson reading this, I am somewhat disappointed. But something is definitely better than nothing.

albionmoonlight 09-22-2020 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3302464)
Don't know what "target effectiveness" really means but as a layperson reading this, I am somewhat disappointed. But something is definitely better than nothing.


Yeah. Hopefully that's a floor and the actual number is better.

We can get well over 50% with masks and distancing.

henry296 09-22-2020 08:09 AM

The flu vaccine effectiveness last year was around 45%.

Interim Estimates of 2019–20 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness — United States, February 2020 | MMWR

Butter 09-22-2020 08:20 AM

Do they consider "effectiveness" as prevention from getting the virus, or do they consider it as mitigating seriousness of contracting the disease itself? Because my son got the flu vaccine last year, then ended up getting the flu in like January and had some mild-to-moderate symptoms for about a day. My wife and I didn't get it at all with a lot of close contact to him (though we did start on the flu meds as soon as we found out he had it).

henry296 09-22-2020 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3302477)
Do they consider "effectiveness" as prevention from getting the virus, or do they consider it as mitigating seriousness of contracting the disease itself? Because my son got the flu vaccine last year, then ended up getting the flu in like January and had some mild-to-moderate symptoms for about a day. My wife and I didn't get it at all with a lot of close contact to him (though we did start on the flu meds as soon as we found out he had it).


The flu study is a reduction in positive confirmed cases of flu.

Butter 09-22-2020 08:38 AM

Yeah, so in this case I would think that it will be some percentage effective in preventing COVID, but another percent effective in preventing severe cases. Thanks

Edward64 09-22-2020 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3302481)
Yeah, so in this case I would think that it will be some percentage effective in preventing COVID, but another percent effective in preventing severe cases. Thanks


That cheers me up some.

Edward64 09-23-2020 02:26 PM

More good news I guess.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...ial-u-n1240446
Quote:

A fourth Covid-19 vaccine candidate has gone into the final stage of clinical trials in the U.S., with Johnson & Johnson announcing the start of its Phase 3 trial Wednesday.

The drugmaker follows Pfizer and Moderna, whose Phase 3 trials began in late July. AstraZeneca also started its Phase 3 vaccine trial this month, but it remains on pause in the U.S. after a participant in the U.K. was reported to have developed a spinal cord injury.

The Johnson & Johnson trial is not expected to yield preliminary results for at least two months.

ISiddiqui 09-23-2020 02:31 PM

Good news, bad news with this virus:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...s/?arc404=true

Quote:

Scientists in Houston on Wednesday released a study of more than 5,000 genetic sequences of the coronavirus, which reveals the virus’s continual accumulation of mutations, one of which may have made it more contagious.

That mutation is associated with a higher viral load among patients upon initial diagnosis, the researchers found.

The new report, however, did not find that these mutations have made the virus deadlier or changed clinical outcomes. All viruses accumulate genetic mutations, and most are insignificant, scientists say.

So it appears this mutation may not have made Covid-19 deadlier, but may have made it more contagious.

Now, it hasn't been peer reviewed yet, note.

JPhillips 09-23-2020 02:32 PM

I'm really worried about the effect ofa vaccine that is 50% effective. People expect a vaccine will be a cure, and when reports of vaccinated people getting sick start rolling social media will drown in anti-vax stories.

The latest estimates are @400000 deaths by Jan 1, and I'm starting to lean towards 1000000 or more before this is over.

Edward64 09-23-2020 02:34 PM

The 4th vaccine entering Phase 3 made me wonder what was the success rate for a Phase 3 vaccine?

There's a chart in the middle of the article. For vaccines (infectious disease) it's at 85.4% once a drug gets into Phase 3 (think I'm reading that right).

Clinical Trial Success Rates by Phase and Therapeutic Area | American Council on Science and Health

However, there's a big caveat. Still a lot of unknowns.

So bottom-line. Eagerly awaiting a FDA approved vaccine. But won't be in the first set of vaccinations (wait 4-6 weeks maybe?).

Quote:

However, a major caveat is that just because a drug or vaccine is deemed a success by receiving FDA approval does not mean it works particularly well. Why would the FDA approve something like that? Because there aren't any good alternatives. For instance, neither the antiviral drug Tamiflu nor the seasonal flu vaccine are particularly impressive. But, there's nothing better available.

The same concern will remain for any approved coronavirus drug or vaccine. We still don't know if humans develop robust, long-lasting immune responses to coronaviruses. No matter what the FDA says, basic biology ultimately will determine how successful a vaccine is.

sterlingice 09-23-2020 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3302766)
Good news, bad news with this virus:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...s/?arc404=true



So it appears this mutation may not have made Covid-19 deadlier, but may have made it more contagious.

Now, it hasn't been peer reviewed yet, note.


I'm curious where this goes and if it can be validated. There have been other studies about the "G Strain" supplanting the "D Strain" (I believe) from earlier in the summer.

However, I'm a but surprised about a paper that found it "more contagious", "with higher viral load", and yet not "deadlier or changed clinical outcomes". That seems to fly in the face of what we "know" about this virus.

Then again, we're still learning about it so I'm definitely open to the idea that what we thought we knew a few months ago isn't actually true, but, man - it seems like we're starting to know more about it and this goes against a lot of that.

SI

ISiddiqui 09-23-2020 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 3302773)
However, I'm a but surprised about a paper that found it "more contagious", "with higher viral load", and yet not "deadlier or changed clinical outcomes". That seems to fly in the face of what we "know" about this virus.


Generally mutations make viruses less deadlier (while also making them more contagious). And that was the hope with Covid mutations that it would make the virus less deadly. It's a bit saddening if the mutations did not make it less deadlier while making it more contagious.

whomario 09-23-2020 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3302766)
Good news, bad news with this virus:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...s/?arc404=true



So it appears this mutation may not have made Covid-19 deadlier, but may have made it more contagious.

Now, it hasn't been peer reviewed yet, note.


And again and it annoys the shit out of me this is not clarified in all those articles: This all happened in February/March for a lot of areas ! What happened in NYC (there was a study showing that, while IIRC correctly the West Coast had the old one dominant for a while), Italy, France etc was almost exclusively caused by this very version of the virus people keep speculating is a weaker version. In Italy 100% of tests showed exactly this one from Feb 20th.
It might well be weaker than the older version (as you said that makes sense for a virus) but that does not change anything because that switch happened in February/March and not recently. So pinning any hopes on that as a "well, the virus now is less dangerous" thing makes no sense.

DEFINE_ME

(Graphics in the appendix)

sterlingice 09-23-2020 03:50 PM

So, yup - just restating what was found out and reported on this summer about what had happened months prior.

Looks like the Washington Post article shows that graphic at the very end but doesn't really talk about it in the article so you'd have to bring that knowledge with you from other articles/papers.

Idle speculation: Because of that timeline, I wonder if it is actually more deadly but has been offset by how we've made it less deadly with the better knowledge we have of treating the virus. Which would also be bad news. As ISiddiqui says, viruses tend to mutate to less deadly (the whole "downward pressure" idea because if you kill hosts, well, it's harder to reproduce.

SI

whomario 09-23-2020 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 3302794)
So, yup - just restating what was found out and reported on this summer about what had happened months prior.

Looks like the Washington Post article shows that graphic at the very end but doesn't really talk about it in the article so you'd have to bring that knowledge with you from other articles/papers.

Idle speculation: Because of that timeline, I wonder if it is actually more deadly but has been offset by how we've made it less deadly with the better knowledge we have of treating the virus. Which would also be bad news. As ISiddiqui says, viruses tend to mutate to less deadly (the whole "downward pressure" idea because if you kill hosts, well, it's harder to reproduce.

SI


My phone doesn't do graphics from the Post for some reason and i admittedly skimmed the article ... (But there were a wave of them over here recently from a lot less dilligent media, often of a certain tendency to declare it all over)

Many scientists actually don't think it is even close to being that functionally different (even the respective study authors are very cautious with that Interpretation). It might just be due to migratory effects, i.e. being introduced by more people from the outside. (In Asia both versions were evenly spread in April still btw) Coincidence happens and with still lowish numbers has a disproportionate effect.

Also scientists are in agreements that this virus (like coronaviruses in general) is not mutating significantly, that's just not sth they are build to do. More than, say, Measles or others but way less than the Influenza Viruses. And if you read about dozens or hundreds of genetically different versions that's correct. But that's way less exciting than it sounds. 99,9 % of genetical changes don't have any effect (or in animals/humans just visual ones, too).

Edward64 09-24-2020 06:22 AM

The sum of it is discussion on purposely infecting candidates for vaccine research. Obviously not educated enough to understand the pros and cons of this approach but TBH, doesn't sit well with me when we are talking about a life threatening infection. Interesting ethical dilemma.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/23/healt...ntl/index.html
Quote:

The British government is exploring the possibility of clinical trials in which volunteers are deliberately exposed to coronavirus to test the effectiveness of vaccine candidates, the UK Department for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) revealed Wednesday in a statement.
:
:
In so-called "challenge trials," researchers give study subjects an experimental vaccine and then intentionally expose them to coronavirus to see if the vaccine works. Such trials were used in early research with smallpox, yellow fever and malaria.

However, deliberately infecting study participants poses more risks and raises ethical concerns, compared to randomized controlled trials, where study subjects receive a vaccine or a placebo, and researchers monitor to see if they become ill as they go about their daily lives.
:
:
It also said controlled infection trials could be ethically acceptable if they met certain criteria. These include choosing young and healthy adults as participants, starting with low doses, ensuring public engagement, and providing high-quality care and close monitoring.

But in July, members of the US National Institutes of Health "Accelerating Covid-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines" (ACTIV) Working Group said such trials would not hasten development of a vaccine.

miked 09-24-2020 10:07 AM

That idea is beyond dumb on so many levels.

JPhillips 09-24-2020 11:38 AM

Sure seems like Boris has been working to purposefully expose people to the virus for the past few months.

Edward64 09-26-2020 08:01 AM

A long read. What I got out of it was
  • Vaccine by late 2020 or early 2021
  • First set of vaccines won't be as effective as later ones
  • Everyone will get vaccinated by 2H 2021
  • Over time/years, it'll eventually become like the flu
Or in other words, long road ahead and die with a whimper, not a bang. I think most of us know this but I am disappointed by the 2H (or actually Nov) 2021 projection. You would think most of US could get vaccinated in the 1H.

Disappointing that article only had one paragraph on therapies, I think therapies are just as important as vaccines especially in the near term.

Here’s How the Pandemic Finally Ends - POLITICO
Quote:

Fast forward to the future. Now, when the prickly enemies invade the lungs, they slip past the human cells, unable to take hold. They’re marked for destruction, soon to be surrounded and eliminated. Though some escape through the airways, they confront the same defenses in their next target—if, that is, they can get anywhere near the human cells. There are so few people left to infect that the germs have nowhere to replicate, nowhere to survive.

This is the end of the coronavirus pandemic.
And this is how it could happen in the United States: By November 2021, most Americans have received two doses of a vaccine that, while not gloriously effective, fights the disease in more cases than not. Meanwhile, Americans continue to wear masks and avoid large gatherings, and the Covid-19 numbers drop steadily after a series of surges earlier in the year. Eventually, as more and more Americans develop immunity through exposure and vaccination, and as treatments become more effective, Covid-19 recedes into the swarm of ordinary illnesses Americans get every winter.

“It will take two things to bring this virus under control: hygienic measures and a vaccine. And you can’t have one without the other,” says Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center and an attending physician in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia.

HerRealName 09-26-2020 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3303210)
[*]Everyone will get vaccinated by 2H 2021


There are way too many people out there that consider an upcoming vaccination "the mark of the beast". I'm very curious if attitudes change in the Evangelical community by then.

JPhillips 09-26-2020 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3303210)
A long read. What I got out of it was
  • Vaccine by late 2020 or early 2021
  • First set of vaccines won't be as effective as later ones
  • Everyone will get vaccinated by 2H 2021
  • Over time/years, it'll eventually become like the flu
Or in other words, long road ahead and die with a whimper, not a bang. I think most of us know this but I am disappointed by the 2H (or actually Nov) 2021 projection. You would think most of US could get vaccinated in the 1H.

Disappointing that article only had one paragraph on therapies, I think therapies are just as important as vaccines especially in the near term.

Here’s How the Pandemic Finally Ends - POLITICO


Lol at masks and avoiding large gatherings in 2021. Lots of people won't do that now. I'm pretty sure that before football season ends we'll see full college stadiums.

sterlingice 09-26-2020 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3303210)
A long read. What I got out of it was
  • Vaccine by late 2020 or early 2021
  • First set of vaccines won't be as effective as later ones
  • Everyone will get vaccinated by 2H 2021
  • Over time/years, it'll eventually become like the flu
Or in other words, long road ahead and die with a whimper, not a bang. I think most of us know this but I am disappointed by the 2H (or actually Nov) 2021 projection. You would think most of US could get vaccinated in the 1H.

Disappointing that article only had one paragraph on therapies, I think therapies are just as important as vaccines especially in the near term.

Here’s How the Pandemic Finally Ends - POLITICO


Not that different than these articles written back in March:
Coronavirus: How does the Covid-19 outbreak end? - Vox
How Will the Coronavirus End? - The Atlantic


Some of the future predictions were a bit off and there were no dates. But the process and ideas were the same.

SI

sterlingice 09-26-2020 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3303216)
Lol at masks and avoiding large gatherings in 2021. Lots of people won't do that now. I'm pretty sure that before football season ends we'll see full college stadiums.


I do have this morbid thought: we are, as an American society (and I'm sure this is true around the world, too - just to different percentages) working towards herd immunity. The people who will take the vaccine and the people who don't trust a vaccine/wear a mask are working towards it - just in different ways. One part is working towards avoiding it until they can get vaccinated while another part is working on catching it and getting immunity that way.

SI

NobodyHere 09-26-2020 07:19 PM

I wonder if masks will start getting more "creative" as Halloween approaches.

I hope so. I usually get a laugh or two when I go out grocery shopping in my plague doctor mask.

Edward64 09-26-2020 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3303280)
I wonder if masks will start getting more "creative" as Halloween approaches.

I hope so. I usually get a laugh or two when I go out grocery shopping in my plague doctor mask.


Somewhat related, wife and I were discussing if Halloween was even going to happen much this year.

Wouldn't parents be concerned about kids taking candy (1) from someone's hand or (2) from a candy box that had a bunch of other hands in it and afterwards (3) unwrapping candy that's been touched or breathed on by someone etc.

We were wondering how we would distribute the candy and were thinking about a spaghetti fork/spatula where we would scoop the candy into kids hands.

tarcone 09-26-2020 08:39 PM

We are skipping Halloween. Not going to mess with it. My job tells me to protect my bubble, so seeing a bunch of random people is not worth it.

And our subdivision is a very popular stop for the towns people.

sterlingice 09-26-2020 08:56 PM

We were talking about this, too. We're either doing nothing or leaving out a bowl of candy for kids to take from at their own risk. Not really excited about this and bummed that we're going to miss a fun year for Halloween with our 5yo :(

SI

tarcone 09-26-2020 09:14 PM

If Im drinking bourbon and get a runny nose, do I have covid?

albionmoonlight 09-26-2020 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3303295)
If Im drinking bourbon and get a runny nose, do I have covid?


Better drink more bourbon to find out.

albionmoonlight 09-26-2020 10:04 PM

We've got a really good Halloween system going where my B-I-L sets up a firepit at that top of his driveway and we sit there and drink lots of beer while we hand out candy while our kids go trick or treat in the neighborhood.

It is going to suck to not get to do that this year. We've really distilled it down to a perfect holiday (beer, candy, fire).

tarcone 09-26-2020 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3303299)
We've got a really good Halloween system going where my B-I-L sets up a firepit at that top of his driveway and we sit there and drink lots of beer while we hand out candy while our kids go trick or treat in the neighborhood.

It is going to suck to not get to do that this year. We've really distilled it down to a perfect holiday (beer, candy, fire).


Yes. We build a fire in the fire pit in the driveway and sit by it. We have a table by the sidewalk and let the kids get what they want and we enjoy life.

This year is a no go.

tarcone 09-26-2020 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3303298)
Better drink more bourbon to find out.


If there was ever a right answer to a question, this is it to every question. Drink more.

Edward64 09-27-2020 08:45 AM

Wife and I had a discussion and have agreed not to patronize stores that do not have mask required.

There is a bagel store close by that my wife drops by after a run. For the past 3 weekends, there's been customers lined up without masks.

I know our Kroger have the mask required. I honestly don't know if Publix or Target does, I'll pay closer attention next time.

There's also a car tune-up, oil change, tire place that is owned by someone in our subdivision. It's got a lighted up sign saying "only 1% death rate" (no idea where he got that stat), you get the idea. That used to be our go-to place for non major stuff since it was so close but we're not going to give it our business anymore.

Lathum 09-27-2020 09:15 AM

Unbelievably stupid for a business to make a statement like that.

I walked into a pizza joint the other day that I don’t usually go to. 4 people behind the counter. Three not wearing a mask. Turned around and left.

sterlingice 09-27-2020 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3303317)
Wife and I had a discussion and have agreed not to patronize stores that do not have mask required.

There is a bagel store close by that my wife drops by after a run. For the past 3 weekends, there's been customers lined up without masks.

I know our Kroger have the mask required. I honestly don't know if Publix or Target does, I'll pay closer attention next time.

There's also a car tune-up, oil change, tire place that is owned by someone in our subdivision. It's got a lighted up sign saying "only 1% death rate" (no idea where he got that stat), you get the idea. That used to be our go-to place for non major stuff since it was so close but we're not going to give it our business anymore.


We've made this decision with regards to our food carryout. Though I'd argue it's as much about self-preservation than anything. I don't want a bunch of people who don't care about this messing with my food. Yes, there are no confirmed food or fomite transmission cases but it's not impossible. And I suspect some of that has to do with the fact that you can't trace down the transmission means for the majority of cases.

I guess, similar idea with the car place: I wouldn't want to get into my car if some dude not wearing a mask was breathing (coughing?) in it for a few minutes before I was in it. That said, we haven't done any car stuff in 6 months because we just aren't driving it that much.

SI

JPhillips 09-27-2020 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3303322)
Unbelievably stupid for a business to make a statement like that.

I walked into a pizza joint the other day that I don’t usually go to. 4 people behind the counter. Three not wearing a mask. Turned around and left.


Our local pizza/pasta place had the same thing the last time we did take-out. We haven't ordered from them since.

albionmoonlight 09-27-2020 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3303333)
Our local pizza/pasta place had the same thing the last time we did take-out. We haven't ordered from them since.


Yup. We have a new pizza place b/c of what I saw the employees of our old pizza place doing.

This all makes me wonder if these states that are "opening the economy" are really going to get the boosts that they expect.

With most places putting half-measure into place and then not even enforcing those, it seems like most everyone who wants to be out and about is already doing it.

And a lot of people who have switched to takeout/curbside, etc. aren't doing it to comply with the law but because they don't want to catch a dangerous disease.

Opening things up is not going to get these people back into stores and resturants.

Only some combination of widely available rapid testing, mask compliance, and a vaccine is going to really get the economy "open" again.

JPhillips 09-27-2020 12:18 PM

There isn't a restaurant in Newburgh where the atmosphere is worth taking a risk regarding the virus. I'd hate to get to heaven and have to tell St. Peter that I died because I absolutely had to experience the atmosphere at Perkins.

Coffee Warlord 09-27-2020 12:22 PM

I don't know the layouts of the places mentioned but do consider one thing. If the ovens/kitchens are in close proximity to the counter, restaurant kitchens are a fucking sauna. Wearing a mask constantly in a super hot kitchen has got to be unbearable. Entirely possible they were just taking some time to breathe.

I don't know the specific situation, but if there were no customers in close proximity, and they weren't actively preparing food, they might deserve to be cut a little slack.

JPhillips 09-27-2020 12:27 PM

In my case, it's a small area. The east side is a prep station. The west side is for pizza by the slice display. The south side is the pizza oven. The real problem is the north side is the register and food pickup. The last time I went in, there were four people in this small area, one guy had a mask, but it was around his neck, one guy had a mask on his chin, below his mouth, and the two girls doing the register and takeout didn't have masks at all.

edit: It takes two steps to get from one side to the opposite side.

Lathum 09-27-2020 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord (Post 3303340)
I don't know the layouts of the places mentioned but do consider one thing. If the ovens/kitchens are in close proximity to the counter, restaurant kitchens are a fucking sauna. Wearing a mask constantly in a super hot kitchen has got to be unbearable. Entirely possible they were just taking some time to breathe.

I don't know the specific situation, but if there were no customers in close proximity, and they weren't actively preparing food, they might deserve to be cut a little slack.


Go outside if you need a mask break. Having worked in restaurants I truly do empathize with them, but they have to know the perception.

JPhillips 09-27-2020 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3303344)
Go outside if you need a mask break. Having worked in restaurants I truly do empathize with them, but they have to know the perception.


And in NY it isn't just perception. If somebody turns them in, I didn't and won't, they'll get some good sized fines.

ISiddiqui 09-27-2020 01:17 PM

I don't mind if the folks in the back where masks, tbh. The far less of a risk of transmission on surfaces and the high heat (and it's affect on viruses) make me ok with it. However all public facing employees should surely be wearing them.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

Thomkal 09-27-2020 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3303338)
There isn't a restaurant in Newburgh where the atmosphere is worth taking a risk regarding the virus. I'd hate to get to heaven and have to tell St. Peter that I died because I absolutely had to experience the atmosphere at Perkins.


But its Perkins....

Ironhead 09-27-2020 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3303353)
But its Perkins....


Mmmmmm....Perkins.

Edward64 09-27-2020 05:13 PM

Good to know companies are planning ahead. The article does go into more detail on preparation by Hormel, General Mills, Kellogg, Campbell, Walmart, Coca-Cola.

Probably a good idea to buy some extra canned foods, paper products, and other things you will eventually eat & use.

Grocers Stockpile, Build ‘Pandemic Pallets’ Ahead of Winter - WSJ
Quote:

Supermarkets are stockpiling groceries and storing them early to prepare for the fall and winter months, when some health experts warn the country could see another widespread outbreak of virus cases and new restrictions. Food companies are accelerating production of their most popular items, and leaders across the industry are saying they won’t be caught unprepared in the face of another pandemic surge.
:
:
Associated Food Stores recently started building “pandemic pallets” of cleaning and sanitizing products so it always has some inventory in warehouses
:
:
Industry executives say they don’t think a potential wintertime burst in grocery demand will be as extreme as it was in March, when people panic-shopped, fearing grocery-store closures or food shortages. Consumers are better prepared this time around

JPhillips 09-29-2020 10:04 AM

The big new outbreaks in NY are driven largely by the Orthodox Jewish communities that are basically ignoring all precautions. My county has a 20% positivity rate, but almost exclusively driven by the Kiryas Joel community and surrounding areas.

Lathum 09-29-2020 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3303580)
The big new outbreaks in NY are driven largely by the Orthodox Jewish communities that are basically ignoring all precautions. My county has a 20% positivity rate, but almost exclusively driven by the Kiryas Joel community and surrounding areas.


Same problem here in New Jersey where there is a huge hasidic jewish community in Lakewood. They really are the worst. Zero interest in following the rules and claiming rule of their god over public health. They clogged up the hospitals around here in March. They couldn't care less about the rules of effects their behaviors have on anyone else. That goes for everyday life also, not just the pandemic. They are terrible.

Lathum 09-29-2020 10:31 AM

Lest anyone think my comments were anti-Semitic my dad and his whole side of the family are Jewish. These people are in a world of their own and are human cockroaches.

Autumn 09-29-2020 10:39 AM

Here in Maine we still have very few cases and very little community transmission, but our largest outbreak is fueled by a church in Sanford which insists on continuing to hold indoor services with choirs (in addition to an indoor wedding the pastor there served at). It's nothing like these other larger communities but it's frustrating that there are groups who are somehow seeing this as an act of faith to refuse to wear masks or gather carefully.

stevew 09-29-2020 11:18 AM

If I'm out and see the Amish I get the fuck out of their airspace. They travel in packs and aren't too keen on masks.

PilotMan 09-29-2020 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3303583)
Lest anyone think my comments were anti-Semitic my dad and his whole side of the family are Jewish. These people are in a world of their own and are human cockroaches.


I find their behavior and attitude has a lot left to be desired. I really want to know where the groups are that demand that they 'integrate into American culture'? Because it's ok to say that only to certain groups, but not to others.

NobodyHere 09-29-2020 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevew (Post 3303594)
If I'm out and see the Amish I get the fuck out of their airspace. They travel in packs and aren't too keen on masks.


Or deoderant

JonInMiddleGA 09-29-2020 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3303336)
Only some combination of widely available rapid testing, mask compliance, and a vaccine is going to really get the economy "open" again.


Or the return of rational thought instead of tragically asinine paranoia.

{thinks a minute}

Yeah, you're right. A miracle cure probably has better odds.

JPhillips 09-29-2020 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3303583)
These people are in a world of their own and are human cockroaches.


You may want to rethink this language. It has really bad historical context.

GrantDawg 09-29-2020 03:18 PM

I used to live close to a large Amish community. Nicest people you could ever meet. I am surprised they are not wearing masks because they are allowed use of modern medicine. I wouldn't think it was political either.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Edward64 09-29-2020 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3303615)
You may want to rethink this language. It has really bad historical context.


We disagree on much but we agree on this.

Change the context from hasidic jews cockroaches to brown illegal cockroaches and this board would be in an uproar at the bigotry. Glad that you (so far) proved me wrong on the oblivious hypocrisy.

Edward64 09-29-2020 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3303609)
Or deoderant


I have been to at least 2 different Amish restaurants in OH. It may have been because they were in the service industry but I really didn't notice anything out of the norm (and there was at least one really cute girl!). They interacted with their customers just fine and didn't smell, sound funny etc.

I will say I was disappointed at the food because I was expecting something different. But it was pretty much the typical fried chicken, spaghetti, biscuits etc. They did have pies that I've never tried before - rhubarb and something like "three berries pie" but don't think they are specific to the Amish.

JPhillips 09-29-2020 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3303619)
We disagree on much but we agree on this.

Change the context from hasidic jews cockroaches to brown illegal cockroaches and this board would be in an uproar at the bigotry. Glad that you (so far) proved me wrong on the oblivious hypocrisy.


It has nothing to do with hypocrisy. Cockroaches has a very specific historical context towards Jews. I don't think Lathum meant it in that way, but if it were me I'd use different language.

JPhillips 09-29-2020 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3303621)
I have been to at least 2 different Amish restaurants in OH. It may have been because they were in the service industry but I really didn't notice anything out of the norm (and there was at least one really cute girl!). They interacted with their customers just fine and didn't smell, sound funny etc.

I will say I was disappointed at the food because I was expecting something different. But it was pretty much the typical fried chicken, spaghetti, biscuits etc. They did have pies that I've never tried before - rhubarb and something like "three berries pie" but don't think they are specific to the Amish.


I don't know about these businesses, but it isn't uncommon for Mennonites to front Amish businesses.

sterlingice 09-29-2020 04:42 PM

This thread has gone in a weird (and somewhat uncomfortable) direction I did not expect

SI

miami_fan 10-01-2020 11:31 AM

We have gotten back most foods, toilet paper and paper towels. Are we ever getting printer cartridges back and if so, back to a normal price? $95 is not going to be a thing that I do.

sterlingice 10-01-2020 12:26 PM

Clorox wipes are still fleeting. I've managed to get a couple of tubs (as we use about half a tub during monthly cleaning) so we're set for a while but have to be pretty eagle eyed to see them. Everything else has been smooth sailing for a while. Most of the grocery supply issues seem to be more of not having a particular brand and them not wanting to give my a more expensive sub for the lower price than anything else.

SI

Lathum 10-01-2020 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3303619)
We disagree on much but we agree on this.

Change the context from hasidic jews cockroaches to brown illegal cockroaches and this board would be in an uproar at the bigotry. Glad that you (so far) proved me wrong on the oblivious hypocrisy.


I'll assume you know nothing about Lakewoods hasidic jews and how they conduct themselves. Brown illegals come here to make a better life for themselves. They want to work hard, not make waves, and earn a living for their kids and send money to their families back home. I own a business in a commiunity full of them. I know these people.

Twenty minutes away is one of the largest hasidic jewish communities. They have destroyed the town they live in. Purposely tank real estate, destroy the schools, etc...they actively look to destroy everything around them to suit their needs. They are very organized and run their communities like a corrupt business. I would feel the same way if they were any religion.

Race, religion, corruption and politics: A guide to the crisis in Lakewood - nj.com

Influx of Orthodox Jews in Lakewood Causing Growth, and Conflict | New Jersey Public Radio | WQXR

As for historical context I am not aware of any and meant no offense.

ISiddiqui 10-01-2020 12:49 PM

While I agree with the jist, it is pretty offensive to call Jews 'cockroaches'. I'm glad to hear that you were unaware of the problematic history (to say the least) of term and I would counsel you never to use that word again (especially around Jewish people).

Lathum 10-01-2020 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3304024)
While I agree with the jist, it is pretty offensive to call Jews 'cockroaches'. I'm glad to hear that you were unaware of the problematic history (to say the least) of term and I would counsel you never to use that word again (especially around Jewish people).


duly noted.

You are from that area, I think you get why I would describe them with that term.

Brian Swartz 10-01-2020 12:53 PM

Wow.

Edward64 10-01-2020 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3304021)
I'll assume you know nothing about hasidic jews and how they conduct themselves. Brown illegals come here to make a better life for themselves. They want to work hard, not make waves, and earn a living for their kids and send money to their families back home. I own a business in a commiunity full of them. I know these people.

Twenty minutes away is one of the largest hasidic jewish communities. They have destroyed the town they live in. Purposely tank real estate, destroy the schools, etc...they actively look to destroy everything around them to suit their needs. They are very organized and run their communities like a corrupt business. I would feel the same way if they were any religion.

Race, religion, corruption and politics: A guide to the crisis in Lakewood - nj.com

Influx of Orthodox Jews in Lakewood Causing Growth, and Conflict | New Jersey Public Radio | WQXR

As for historical context I am not aware of any and meant no offense.


We'll agree to disagree.

I do not consider this "racist" but do consider this extremely "bigoted" and will wait (may be a long while though) to hear from others condemning this. Not because the word "cockroaches" have a "problematic history" re: Jews but because of the word itself.

Lathum 10-01-2020 01:39 PM

I'm sure you've thoroughly researched all the definitions so I'll accept your findings.

Edward64 10-01-2020 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3304034)
I'm sure you've thoroughly researched all the definitions so I'll accept your findings.


Nice pithy comeback. Sounds like what Trump would have said Tue night when he was sulking.

Lathum 10-01-2020 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3304035)
Nice pithy comeback. Sounds like what Trump would have said Tue night when he was sulking.


Lighten up Francis.

Edward64 10-01-2020 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3304036)
Lighten up Francis.


Best thing you could do is say I'm sorry or I misspoke. Instead you continue to insert foot into mouth and digging a much deeper hole.

Lathum 10-01-2020 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3304021)

As for historical context I am not aware of any and meant no offense.


You must have been to busy with your faux outrage to see this.

Edward64 10-01-2020 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3304040)
You must have been to busy with your faux outrage to see this.


My outrage (actually more like confused amusement at the oblivious hypocrisy going on here) is not on the "historical context" or the "problematic history" as your bros tried to soften your words, it is describing them as cockroaches.

Quote:

Not because the word "cockroaches" have a "problematic history" re: Jews but because of the word itself.

I guess you can call a group of people cockroaches and not mean to offend, but not in my world.

Lathum 10-01-2020 02:16 PM

Fair enough.

If you are from monmouth or ocean county NJ you would understand my use of that word with regards to them. As far as I know Isiddiqui is the only other person on this board from there and he got the jist.

Again, I apologize for my ignorance with regard to not knowing the historical context of that particular word. I won’t apologize for my generalization of them.

Edward64 10-01-2020 02:21 PM

Getting back on to the subject at hand ...

I personally have not had any vaccine reactions as bad as the 5 described below (and I've been vaccinated quite a bit traveling overseas). Sore spot where the injection went in and that is about it.

I hope they are the exceptions or that the approved vaccines will be more finetuned.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/01/coro...headaches.html
Quote:

Luke Hutchison woke up in the middle of the night with chills and a fever after taking the Covid-19 booster shot in Moderna’s vaccine trial. Another coronavirus vaccine trial participant, testing Pfizer’s candidate, similarly woke up with chills, shaking so hard he cracked a tooth after taking the second dose.

High fever, body aches, bad headaches and exhaustion are just some of the symptoms five participants in two of the leading coronavirus vaccine trials say they felt after receiving the shots.

In interviews, all five participants — three in Moderna’s study and two in Pfizer’s late-stage trials — said they think the discomfort is worth it to protect themselves against the coronavirus. Four of them asked not to be identified, but CNBC reviewed documentation that verified their participation in the trials.

While the symptoms were uncomfortable, and at times intense, they often went away after a day, sometimes sooner, according to three participants in the Moderna trial and one in Pfizer’s as well as a person close to another participant in Moderna’s trial.

Brian Swartz 10-01-2020 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64
I do not consider this "racist" but do consider this extremely "bigoted" and will wait (may be a long while though) to hear from others condemning this.


I'll elaborate if anyone thinks it's useful, but I agree 100% - hence my one-word post preceding yours. It's not even the only problematic post (or poster) on this page of this thread in that regard.

sterlingice 10-01-2020 03:51 PM

As above, I have a problem with broad brushing any group of people from a faith (or race, gender, etc) like that.

(EDIT: Unless there's something inherent in their beliefs that would be part of the broad brush. For instance, if there was the "Club for Guys who hate Oreos", hating oreos is kindof in their name. Similarly, this fits into the "If you're voting for a particular candidate/political party, there are things you value some things more than other things" because otherwise, you'd vote for the other person)

SI

Lathum 10-01-2020 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 3304063)
As above, I have a problem with broad brushing any group of people from a faith (or race, gender, etc) like that.

SI


Believe me when I say their faith is completely irrelevant. My comments and opinions are in no way critical of their religious beliefs. They are rooted in the fact they are a criminal enterprise hiding behind a religion. This isn’t akin to saying all Muslims are terrorists. It’s more like saying all members of isis are terrorists. I wish there was a better way to describe them, because I know how it comes across. You’ll just have to trust me when I say if you had experience with this group you would understand what I’m trying to say, albeit poorly.

Radii 10-01-2020 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3304061)
I'll elaborate if anyone thinks it's useful, but I agree 100% - hence my one-word post preceding yours.


yeah my initial reaction is to agree 100% with this. The whole thing makes me extremely uncomfortable and if someone who was right leaning making the post I imagine there would be a ton of people jumping all over it. Wow, and ick.

tarcone 10-01-2020 04:39 PM

How have you never had a rhubarb pie? My all time favorite pie is Strawberry/rhubarb. Heat in the microwave and plop some vanilla ice cream on it and man I am in heaven. The right balance of sweet and tart. So, so good.

Edward64 10-01-2020 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii (Post 3304068)
yeah my initial reaction is to agree 100% with this. The whole thing makes me extremely uncomfortable and if someone who was right leaning making the post I imagine there would be a ton of people jumping all over it. Wow, and ick.


We differ quite a bit but thank you for that acknowledgement about the hypocrisy.

JPhillips 10-01-2020 04:44 PM

We have an Orthodox community in Orange County, and they have caused a number of problems refusing to follow state and county laws, and I find their treatment of women objectionable. That being said, I think Lathum goes way too far in his language and I called that out a while ago. The comparison to ISIS isn't much better.

Edward64 10-01-2020 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3304070)
How have you never had a rhubarb pie? My all time favorite pie is Strawberry/rhubarb. Heat in the microwave and plop some vanilla ice cream on it and man I am in heaven. The right balance of sweet and tart. So, so good.


My wife makes good pecan & blueberry pie. We also buy frozen pies once in a while but don't remember ever seeing frozen rhubarb pie (or maybe I never looked for it).

Yeah, vanilla (w/beans) ice cream is great on pies.

Lathum 10-01-2020 06:29 PM

It is clear I am doing a poor job explaining myself, and will probably just make it worse so I am just going to say I am sorry and move on. I have no hate in my heart and sorry it comes across like I do.

and I like pie.

whomario 10-02-2020 09:09 AM

Highly recommended reading:


FAQs on Protecting Yourself from Aerosol Transmission - Google Docs


Group of scientists from different fields from collecting the current knowledge/consensus (but also unclear stuff) around transmission in general and aerosol transmission in particular.
Easily understandable, comprehensive and relatable to practical aspects. Done in FAQ style and thus can jump here and there depending on what piques your interest.


As an aside: Mother of a friend had to get testet as a known contact today. Said friend helped me and my parents move some furniture around yesterday, so fingers crossed she's negative (Results take 1-3 days ...)

Brian Swartz 10-02-2020 10:51 AM

It's only fair for me to mention, not to prolong the discussion or anything, that Lathum clearly wasn't comparing anyone to ISIS. That was an argument from logic.

AlexB 10-02-2020 05:34 PM

This is the issue with sports in the Covid era...

Sale Sharks: Premiership game with Worcester Warriors to go ahead despite Covid-19 cases - BBC Sport

16 positive cases in a squad, but unwilling to not play as it will cost them a playoff spot. A ‘crucial’ game to play, maybe more crucial not to play

MIJB#19 10-02-2020 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexB (Post 3304404)
This is the issue with sports in the Covid era...

Sale Sharks: Premiership game with Worcester Warriors to go ahead despite Covid-19 cases - BBC Sport

16 positive cases in a squad, but unwilling to not play as it will cost them a playoff spot. A ‘crucial’ game to play, maybe more crucial not to play

That's so wrong. These are times that require special precautions as we/they knew well ahead of time situations like this would come up. The schedules that were made, they knew there was a 99% chance that COVID-19 would show up and put games in danger. What happens if both teams have a positive case, do both lose by default, or does the team that was cowardly enough to report it last win?

The problem with forfeiting as a punishment, it will encourage to not properly test players and field infected players. Besides, why on earth do these sports teams need to be tested so thoroughly and take away from the testing capacity that's so scarce all across the globe. Many countries are still amidst their rising peak, while others are heavily battling their second wave, as governments start buying testing capacity across borders in bidding wars.

In the remainder of 2020 all team sports should have the same guideline: 1 positive case on a team and all the games of that team in the next 7, 10, 14 days (whatever the guidelines of quarantine are in their homeland) must be postponed. No exceptions.

miami_fan 10-02-2020 08:18 PM

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/02/healt...lts/index.html

I hesitate to post but I am hoping the CDC is back providing to non watered down information.


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